>> who cares about that? >> plastics is not good. >> i'm a seller of the smh 113 i'm still selling. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, just trying to make ya some money call me or tweet me @jimcramer the president negotiate as seize fire with china. the average explodes higher and give up much of the gains. dow closing up 1 17 and s&p

rising still posing an all-time high and the nasdaq advancing how is that we could rally so hard much better than this close? closing figures? on generally good news and then lose our momentum. at one point we were flat lining for advancing the final hour of the day. i think we got dragged down by the very same force that allowed the averages to rocket higher than the first half of this year dow gaining 14%. s&p polling 47% and the nasdaq going up 21% and that forced skepticism the market is full of skeptics it's full of bears who sometimes masquerade as bulls. and their doubt is the fuel that lets us go higher. bull markets thrive on disbelief. the moment everyone believes in the bull, the rally is over because there is no one left to buy.

let me explain first this weekend president trump declared a truce in the trade war with china and i phrase it that way because it was so one-sided president xi didn't seem to give up everything but if trump is willing to ratchet down the tensions, i'm not sure the chinese are done retaliating the stock market disagrees many proclaim nothing was truly resolved by this deal and the whole thing was a nothing burger of beyond meat proportions i think that's wrong very wrong the positives here are real. we learned trump will be rolling back some of the sanctions on the huge chinese company which means many of the american suppliers will be back in action this is huge just last week, micron told us it cost them as much as 200 million in sales micron may not have been hardest hit. they all got the block cage of orders if you ask me about why house's

attitude going to the summit, i would have told you the trump administration was committed to putting these guys out of business they view this company as a stooge of the market and a threat to u.s. technology. the hard liners were cualling te shots. apparently not the case. drive them into bankruptcy lost athough we have an understanding. that was a story this afternoon. people said man, what a give away still, that's a major positive for the companies that supply them as well as -- and video which at one point was up eight points nvidia held in the balance i think the chance did improve dramatically after the waway stand of execution that's important is it the end of the trade war

no but it's absurd to act like the seize fire on the front doesn't matter only people who don't understand exactly what semis do would think that at the same time, trump gave china a stay of execution in the next round of tariffs, which is something i didn't see coming. many ceos i speak to thought these tariffs were a done deal nope, at least not for the moment the stock market hates the trade war and hates down anything that ratchets down tension with china but to me this seems like a bad deal what do we get vague promises china would make purchases for american farmers i don't know how that happens given the chinese are sourcing crops from other countries they are buying soybeans from brazil now it isn't that easy to switch back still, what drives me nuts is that this market is trying to have it both ways on the trade deal, both negative ways one group of bears says this deal with china means absolutely nothing and then another group of bears tells us that the trade

truce means the economy is going to get too strong for the federal reserve to cut deals this month you can't have it both ways. if the deal doesn't matter, the fed has all the ammo it needs to cut rates. if the deal does matter, then the economy improves on its own. all day today we saw sellers coming out of the wood work seemingly worried the feds will leave rates unchanged now that the fed is working things out with china i found the inconsistency just infuriating but you know what? it's good. it's good that wall street is skeptical. the average exploded higher in fact first half not despite the pessimism but because of it. stocks climbed the wall bizarre wall of worry that stems from a belief earnings are going to collapse and the president cares more about crushing china than he cares about hoping the stock market however, those earnings have

proven to be far more resilient than expected. lower interest rates have given dividend stocks a second wind when it looks like they were flagging and the president has the bullish habit of changing the stance when you see stocks going down too long. he loves new highs he wants to take credit for them follow him on twitter. put them together and every time portfolio managers try to leave, they are sucked back in by an amazingly pumped up s&p 500. they can't afford to sit on the sidelines when averages are screaming higher the best example here, i came back from italy with a little cough. give me a break. how sweet it is. the best example is apple. at the beginning of the year, this stock got clobbered plunging to 142 after a negative preannouncement. you can barely see it now but remember how bad it was? apple looked like road kill frankly. yet, now the stock is rallied to over 200 it could challenge this year's

highs. getting pretty close, isn't it what's happened during this period well, we've got a perception that apple's chinese sales have plummeted. we got a sense of the company in the cross hairs of the united states and people's republic because they do business to both countries but they have plan to grow the service business and allowed the stock to triumph even though there are worries galore hey, you know what you see this all over the place. everybody in the media and government hates facebook but users love them or more accurately can't quit instagram so the numbers keep going up the news flow on boeing, there is a good one. ist beit's been horrible the government gives them a green light to raise the dividends and buy back stock and boom, shares rebound i could go on and on but here is the bottom line this market just won't quit because there are so many money managers with one foot out the door. every time something good happens, they need to jump right

back to the prices and that's the real driving force behind this remarkable market we're going to start by taking calls with franklin in pennsylvania fra franklin >> caller: how is it going i would like to thank you for your experience and advice, i'm a daily viewer i'm a fairly new investor. >> you're terrific, thank you so much. >> reporter: regarding ticker symbol mdp, i won a few shares in the green today they closed that at 147.67 per share but i've been seeing a downward trend and calling in to ask should i buy >> stock is up 76% you know, we spoke to them two weeks ago. i don't know about you i thought it was a fabulous story. i said wow, this is much better than i thought it is okay with me all right. i need to go to alex in utah alex >> caller: hi, jim. >> alex. >> caller: how are you

all right. i have a question, i wanted to hear your thoughts about a possible mna deal of amazon and fedex. especially since fedex stock has been significantly devalued as of lately. >> wow, i'm going to have to go -- we don't recommend stocks on a takeout business on this show second, there is no love lost there. fred smith had something interesting to say on the conference call. he pull aed away from amazon. you own fedex because it's darn cheap and well run and come down too far, too fast. i like it. not for a takeover but because it's good. bill in new york, bill >> caller: hey, this is bill from new york. >> good to have you on the show. >> caller: i have a question people mutual funds, et cetera still buying stock when the company filed for bankruptcy, isn't paying dividends and being sued for $20 billion because the equipment caused many of these

devastating multi year california fires thanks and keep up the great work. >> i think that -- thank you i think that's what happened here is that people are in disbelief there could be anything wrong i share the skepticism with you. mutual funds buying here, i mean, maybe they know something, maybe there are sources in government for heaven sake too risky. today is representative of this entire year. just when people think this market is going lower, it sores. the s&p 500 had the best half in two decades and going over the winners to tell you what the pattern is and why i think it can continue then i'm getting real on the real, real ipo and the g 20 summit has come and gone the trade noise from me. i'm talking the ceo of a company with real insight how the u.s. economy is fairing do not miss my sit down with marty from paychecks and stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad

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now that the first half of the year is over and we've had an incredible run, best in ages, it's worth asking how much of this move was because maybe we never should have been down so much in the first place. you know what happened late last year and how much of this is the real deal? in other words, what does this rally really signify given the incredible certainties and fed, trade tensions slow and retail sales and genuine earnings, the rally in the first half of the year did defy the pes mi pessimistic expectations tonight we're driving down on the first pest performing stocks in the dow jones industrial and because the average is a little out, of course, we'll focus on the s&p 500 and draw conclusions

about this market that could be helpful for the second half. let's take them down because the dow, microsoft mr. softy up 32% how did that happen? simple, icrosoft's become the one uncontroversial large text stock. it's living in peace with regulators all over the globe. ironic, think about it like this, microsoft already had the reckoning 18 years ago the kingpin has become under the leadership of the quiet earnest. nobody is calling to break up microsoft like they are with amazon, google and facebook. it's the good guy. can the stock keep roaring tough call microsoft's earnings haven't been rising like share price that means much of the recent move was called let's say multiple expansion that's money managers paying more for the same set of earnings expectations. that said, microsoft has it all.

insurance and tremendous cloud business and got fantastic business all over the globe and you know what? stick with it. second and third best performers in the dow are two credit card companies, visa and american express. they are both extremely well run and perfect plays on the transition from paper money to plastic, which is still going on there is one thing that can stop them if the banks themselves come back in style on the wall street fashion show as they did today, after the stress test released last week and maybe the demand for financial technology stocks will dry up as money flows back into the much cheaper regular financials now i don't think that's very likely but it's certainly a possibility. now american express has the cheaper stock between visa and american express i think it's a better buy. while the company had a good quarter, there is multiple expansi expansion. if you really want a credit card stock that's expensive and growing fast, go with ma,

mastercard has it has the best runway for growth. number four, disney. up 27% one of the most unbelievable moves i've ever seen in my career you almost never see a not so hot stock explode higher after the company holds a long awaited analyst meeting but that's what happened here. before the ceo traced out his vision for 2024 led by a streaming video service, disney plus and a slate of movies that are almost guaranteed to be blockbusters, three quarters of the year, investors only focus on espn specifically how espn was losing subscribers thanks to cord cutting like the genie in alladin, it's worth holding onto the stock for the pay off in 2024 even though building out the streaming business cost a fortune. he's being conservative. disney has terrific programming and disney plus will break even earlier maybe in 2022. maybe turn a profit in 2023.

if you're willing to focus on those out years, then this remains a fantastic story but near term, patience is required. fifth best performer in the dow, cisco. up 26% under the leadership, cisco chance stransitioned from a netg play slow growing to a diversefied growing business with software and cybersecurity exposure, largest in the world by the way just buried within the company the skeptics are thick on the ground which is one reason why the stock is so cheap. even though cisco is in great shape and sitting on -- not as big amount but still a mountain, i think it got more room to run. robin sold the last round of tariffs out of china ahead of time, no cuts there. if the new date traded to holds, maybe that doesn't matter but if this deal goes off the rails as so many people thought through much of the day, cisco will be fine how about the top five winners in the s&p 500 many of these are like cisco

there are stories where magic made good decisions. the best performer during the first half was cody cosmetics but given the fact they plunged, number two xerox which is very much never should have been down so much in the fourth quarter, put that aside, too. i want to help you make money, not just be historical for our purpose, the best performer was chipotle even if it was number three. up 69% for the first half. chipotle is a spectacular party led by brian nickel. he's breathed new life in the franchise and doesn't hurt american haves short memories from the incidents of food poisoning. he's so superior to the old guys wow. second, there is amd up 64%. you probably heard me rave so much about ceo lisa sue that you're sick of it. don't turn the channel what she's done here is nothing short of amazing

after spending 30 years playing second to intel, they have chips for the p.c. for the game, data center in fact, it's become more reliable than intel. i said it. i think it might be having the best quarter of the semi conductors it's a buy number three is an odd duck. up 62% this company has been a force in the semi conductor design business but become the premiere subscription based intelligence system designer. reminds me of auto desk up big today. i think the stock could have more upside. i remember from the old days, you have a huge stake in it hedge fund manager the fourth best performer in the s&p, let me move aside to co the,th t and kpee rxerox. it's the keeper and all the data and analytics tools you need and growth portfolio managers love emerging markets even though they are risky and that's why they are the star of the base. more room to run

finally, here is a weird one, hess up 57%. there is money coming in, maybe there is speculation hess could be a takeover target and chevron is looking for something that's very unlikely many you own hess, maybe you want to ring the register. when i look to the top five best performers, i see a good group of stocks that have more room to run. as we seen over and over this year, stocks hthat are in motion tend to stay in motion and maybe get knocked down by the big picture. you got a quality story like a lot of these, the odds are good the stocks will be back on track. stay with cramer

while we were away last week, the ipo kept chugging along with another smoking hot deal

i'm talking about the real real, that's real for your home gamers the online consignment store for luxury goods that came public with a bang onfriday the deal price at $20, a buck above the proposed price range and then the stock immediately opened at $28. 40% gained right out of the gate before closing at $28.90 buyers had good reason this is an intriguing story with a very fast growth rate and at a time when the department stores are being eaten alive. the real real could be poised to make a killing but we hate to chase and this thing ran up a lot on friday fortunately today the stock pulled back and it's safe to 8%. you know, i got to wonder if it's cooled down enough to earn because this is a concept. maybe i'm bias many of my friends use it. more than everybody rent the runway this has a powerful concept that

i think the department stores should have adopted ahead of them let's get to know the ipo. first, you need to understand how this company really works. the real real operates in a very interesting way that reminds me of a company you may have seen on air, stock x. the red hot digital platform for selling sneakers, nikes. it's privately held but the business is booming because there is a huge market for used luxury goods that's where the real real comes in this is an online consignment shop, a store that helps people sell used stuff and designed to handle luxury apparel watches, jewelry, home goods and art. the real real isn't just the platform they also authenticate everything that comes their way meaning you're much less likely to be suckered into buying fakes. oh, i love this concept. there is times with great high-end clothing and access accessories sittin

closets. maybe it doesn't fit you anymore. maybe your taste change. i think people would take advantage of it and that's exactly what we're seeing with the real real. for the last eight years, this company has been building up a loyal base of sellers and buyers and going up against a market tough to find and full of counter fits by making it easy to sell high-end cloths and accessories on consignment and authenticate the merchandise, they are pulling people that would normally buy or sell and the people that use it turn into bus of other people's stuff. it's a fly wheel effect. i couldn't agree more. this thing has a lot of people buzzing about it think about it do you really want to go to a brick and mortar consignment store and spend ages haggling with them? do you want to sell stuff online via an auction site like ebay? either way, you got to admit. >> house of pain. >> pain in the neck. then from the consumer site do you want to shop at a brick and

mortar consignment store the problem for shopping for used clothing, high-end is it's a crab shoot you can't tell until you've gone through everything i know lots of people enjoy this treasure hunt shopping experience i used to. it's stressful and exhausting if you don't find pressure. the real real solves the problems limited selection, the company has more than 180 luxury managers across 40 major metropolitan areas that search for people that might be willing to sell luxury goods on consignment. they built a terrific pipeline 80% of the real real gross merchandise value came from repeat sellers the company will come to your home for consultation where you can drop stuff off at the locations. they have 11 consignment offices and three retail stores in new york or l.a. or ship it straight to them for free once they get their hands on your stuff, the real real authenticates it and write the description and take the photos

and handle the logistics, everything you have to do yourself if you try to sell a used jacket on ebay and the consigners get good deals. on average commission is 65% of the selling price. from the perspective of potential buyers, you don't need to deal with the pressure hunt because the real real brings all this fancy merchandise together from all over the country. they kerr rate it on their website and they have gotten good at this last year 80% of the products sold within 90 days of being listed and had a 96% sell ratio. how about the financials last year the company delivered 55% and it slid to 49% in the first quarter. that's still a number most retailers would kill for can you imagine a department store getting the numbers? holy cow active buyers and total orders increased by 40% in the first quarter that is however as there often is a fly because the real real is in growth mode, the company is a

long way from turning profit normally that wouldn't bother me and come with newly minted ipo and so much potential. the real real's margins are moving in the wrong direction. they didn't improve much and in the first quarter they were down substantially. the gross margin declined by 470 basis points to 61.2%. high but not what i wanted beyond the numbers you need to know this company has real competition. ebay is coming at them with a similar service. ebay augthenticates and there is another privately held business, posh mark. they authenticate both -- they take a smaller cut more like 20% versus 30% for the real real. i think there is enough room for multiple players here but competition it can be devastating. the margin isn't to worry about anyway this could end up being like amazon's attempt to move in on etsy in the hand-made goods market where the smaller more specialized player triumphed

without breaking a sweat we know that when elliott management, the high profile activist pushed ebay's management for change, they sited the real real as a company that was thriving because ebay had taken its eye off the ball i agree. i said the same thing to morning to david when we talked about this they made peace, you have to wonder if ebay will be a focused competitor certainly possible it's a good company. the other big concern, the real real ceo julie wainwright, ceo of pets.com which of course has become the poster child of the excesses of.com bubble cheap shot to talk about it but i did bring it up. business models aren't really comparable and wainwright built the real real into a formable outfit but i couldn't do my job if i didn't mention it and people would say he's glossing over that. i think she's good we have an intriguing growth story. if the company keeps growing, a general assumption, the stock is trading at seven times this

year's sales estimates seven times sales for a company with 49% revenue growth is a lot. if you look at revolve group which we talked about a couple weeks ago, another online fashion play recently became public that trades at less than four times. the real real has twice the growth rate and revolve is making money, we like the deal put it together and it's too pricey and maybe even after today's pull back, i want to say go buy it. despite the flaws, i think real real has a lot going for it and there is a price it's not this one. right now, it's at 26 and change if it pulls back to 22.50 or less, things can happen. if it doesn't, got to say you missed it. how about we go to rob in california, rob? >> caller: hey, jim. calling you after about a particular stock i'm a technician that i believe the chart is worth 1,000 words. >> all right

>> caller: i'm calling about nike i bought nike last year and used footlocker as a proxy and watched footlocker's stocks sore and after watched nike go from 67 to 85 and calls around 67 and hold around 85 and i'm looking at the chart today and i'm seeing two things that i'm not really liking one is a double top. >> right i see that. >> another is the 50-day moving average just recently crossed below the 100-day moving average, which tells me there could be selling pressure in the near term. i'm wondering if you buy it now and if you think it might pull back to 80 before you would buy again? >> well, i think it moved up today because of trade talk and the insistence that it somehow levered only to china. they have a great relationship to china i would like to see it go back to 80, 82 before we buy it i was surprised it went up this

much, i'm not a buyer at this level. needs to be lower. i agree. ashwin in california. >> caller: thanks for your insights i have a quick question about lululemon. >> yes. >> caller: i got it around 169, 170 before earnings and hanging on to them i saw a few analysts who have gone with them from a buy to a whole, some are under performing, i don't know why their numbers look good. they are costly, expensive but they are still looking good. fund mentals look good. >> right. >> caller: what are your thoughts i like the stock here and i like the stock to go to 2000. they have amazing management a downgrade, i got 100 stocks i would downgrade before them. i'm sticking with it let me keep it real real the new ipo has a lot going for it but at these prices, having

trouble. wait for a pull back much more "mad money" ahead including my exclusive with the ceo of paychecks get rid of the job market and stock and why can't the oil stocks catch a serious bid i'm investigating. all your calls, rapid fire, the lightning round so stay with cramer

as far as wall street is concerned, the trade taunt with china is good news the trade war was never this market's only problem. remember last month we got an employment report so what should we expect when the labor department releases numbers friday you need to check in with payroll processers i'm talking about companies like paychecks, the second largest processer in america karks f, is on small businesses. the earnings were light according to some analyst and investors might not have had management's outlook the stock got hammered but since then it's been bouncing back what does it mean? let take a closer look with the president and ceo of paychecks and get a better sense how the company is doing and the job market welcome back to "mad money."

>> thanks jim, good to be here. >> i had the good fortune of being away when you reported because i got to see how the stock is bouncing back, not how some people sold it down i want to go over a little housekeeping it seemed like that your numbers were a little misunderstood, not because you were opaque but because the analyst didn't seem to understand you were trying to explain what your numbers really looked like with or without this insurance component just basically tell people i think that business was pretty darn good, wasn't it? >> yeah, i think it was. we had a solid year 12% revenue growth and $3.8 billion in revenue and solid operating margin and adjusted diluted earnings per share of 11%. we felt very strong. we did exactly what the expectations were for most that were out there so i think we had a very solid fiscal year. good solid fourth quarter that is starting us off good this year. >> it seems if you keep your word about what you said and you've always been a man of the

word on this show, you're talking about 11 to 14% in the second half as your an verse i have of this acquisitionacquisi >> particular ly we will accelerate and feel strongly about the growth on the hr said, you know, that's been growing the fastest double digit growth even without oasis, the acquisition we completed, we will have double digit growth and will and we think we'll continue to have that in our client employees that we add we're at about 1.5 million work site employees we serve and that's great growth and more than anyone else serves across the h.r. services. >> i also thought unfortunately you flagged the retirement crisis, no one talks about it. a quarter of americans have no retirement savings sounds like what you're offering could increase the number of people who put money away. >> well, we think so and one of the things that's been a great help is the mobility app that we

offer through paychecks flex that app now allows the clients employees to sign up for retirement with basically four clicks on the mobile app i doesn't have to be the paperwork that it used to be and we're already seeing participation rates move up for those participating in the plans that the client has. that helps them become p complid retain that plan, as well. >> i wasn't sure you did talk about how tight employment has you think kept small medium size business creation, small business a little more subdied than you expect but you dismissed a bit that it might be because of minimum wage i was thinking that perhaps because we said longer hours that people are reluctant to hire new people because -- or start a new business because of the minimum wage which is it really, the minimum wage or difficulty to find employees? that's discouraging new business and that's what paychecks is

looking at. >> well, i think it's a little bit of both, jim those existing clients, small businesses are having a difficult time with those minimum wage increases that are going into effected and trying to get more hours out of the current employees and productivity but that's difficult. the overall issue for small business job growth is definitely that there is a shortage of employees and that small businesses have a more difficult time hiring because they don't quite have the flexibility and the recruiting power and the flexibility of work hours that new hires really want these days. >> so do you think that's going to mean there will be year over year a slowing in employment because in many ways, it's a high quality problem when you think about it. >> it is you know, when you've got so much work but you can't find the workers, i definitely think it will slow down a little bit on the growth we're still going to have growth in small business hiring, but it is definitely slowing down a bit because it is difficult for

small businesses to find and attract and hire the right people. >> meanwhile, there were analysts again focused on the idea the fed might cut and therefore bad for you. today was a day that people felt hold it, maybe the fed won't cut and numbers go up. i look at the actual delta, it's not as great as this peo business that's growing like mad. >> yeah, no. i mean, look, that's a small piece we've went with low rates for a long time. it certainly has been some wind in our back to have rates go up on the float as you know $4 billion in float that we earn interest on but it's the growth and the fundamental business, the h.r. component that's showing double digit growth last year and this year as we go into the new fiscal year here this month. so we're feeling very strong the need for h.r. support at the small and mid size business level has never been greater with the complexities of regulation. >> well, then once again, i want to reiterate, you did not keep the outlook the same

you increased the outlook for the second half and those who felt you were in your view of the future, i think they missed the mark. >> i do, too i think they misread it. i think we came out strong with the growth and revenue we expect this fiscal year and feel very strongly about the h.r. growth and the business, as well and we delivered on the results we expected in the previous fiscal year that we just closed so we increased the dividend 11% just back in may and we have one of the highest dividend yields in the business. i pefeel like the fund mental results are there. >> i could not agree more. i'm glad i was able to get you today so we could recommend it with the idea that you very rarely get a discount in paychecks. this is the time thank you, marty. >> thanks, jim. >> marty mucci is the president and ceo of paychecks i reiterate it's a good-bye. "mad money" is back after the

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it is time, it is time for the lightning round. and then the lightning round is over are you ready? time for the lightning round let start with scott in new jersey, scott? >> how are you doing, jim? >> doing well, scott, how about you? >> caller: good, good, good. my question for you is xiling. i have 11.5% gain in under a week incredible. >> here is half of it at least look, there is conflicting reports about what the story with wayay is it they make playstation for china and may not be part of the amnesty so i don't want to get too out of control don't go let's go to zack in california, zack >> caller: yes, many cramer. you had the ceo of aero environmental on your show and he said how well they would do, and how well they were to perform and they have not

performed well at all. >> they haven't. i have to tell you that there is a big move against these defense talks, too i had l 3 this morning with hard rirs, th -- harris got to stay away i love that but boy, that thing acts badly let's go to tom in kentucky, tom? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. >> boo-yah from kentucky, the second time long time. >> there you go. >> caller: intel after the g 20 summit. >> why own intel when you can own amd. that's the buy hey, let's go to sandy in new york, sandy? >> caller: hi, jim, how are you? we love you. we watch you every morning and every night. >> thanks, i can be memorizing, some people feel that way. thank you. >> caller: we want to find out about yeti. >> a buy in the 20s, buy in the teens and buy right here and i

think that sell off from the 30s, let's just say we'll revisit that level yeti makes unbelievable equipment. i'm surprised it's public. i'm surprised nobody bought them let's go to javi in florida. >> caller: boo-yah jim. >> boo-yah. >> caller: the chinese company -- >> my thoughts are, it's a two box. you know what? maybe it makes a comeback. i would sell it at three, four it's been disappointing. let's go to bernie in texas, bernie >> caller: yes, sir. on june 3rd you commented that you were not pleased with the quarter recorded by air mark and would not purchase the stock since that time it dropped but popped up again. >> popped back up. >> caller: as it approached the 200-day moving average. >> look. >> caller: what is your opinion today? >> i was concerned and then it came right back and frankly, good for them but it was difficult to try to figure out

why and still difficult. i love them on the show, though. i love that. let's go to marcus in pennsylvania marcus >> caller: yes, sir. big fan of your show thanks for your wisdom and the way you teach us things. i was wondering about brooke field ash field management. >> they are such smart guys. i'm never getting away of smart guys a very good price. i like them. it's been doing nothing lately but i like them. that's the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is up sponsored by t.d. ameritrade ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

why can't the darn oil stocks catch a break on a day we had all sorts of good news for the oil market, the trade with china that could breathe new life for the economy and boost demand while russia and saudi arabia released a deal to limit the output reducing supply the price rallied and the stock lagged behind again today. some were down we do have a wild card but anything that makes it more likely should send the price of oil higher not lower. so what's wrong with it? well, it's simple. we're producing too much crude in this country for prices to stay up for very long. right now it's at $59 a barrel at $59 producers will keep drilling while selling oil futures putting pressure on

prices and locking in profits even if it slows growth. in a way the american oil industry is a victim of its own success. we found so much texas tea the united states keeps a lid on crude. forget opec, well, come on, here they are california and north dakota, oklahoma, california, colorado, california in there a couple times, new mexico, louisiana and of course, texas okay the lone star state is the third largest oil producer on earth. behind only russia and saudi arab arabia i'm not including ohio, pennsylvania, west virginia -- what am i? elementary school. you know what i'm talking about. a lot of investors believe we're a wash in oil and the smart fun surfaces and knocks them back down take exxonmobil, the largest at 4:45 a.m. today, i'm back to my old sleeping habits, exxon was trading up a buck 75

later exxon opened up 50 cents and closed down seven cents. incredible if you bought the oil this morning, you got fleeced don't keep making the same mistake, people. the price of crude can go up but probably can't stay up which is why the sellers always seem to overwhelm the buyers in the oil stocks and the sellers are right. look, in the last five years america increased its oil production to 12.1 million barrel as day. over the next five years we could reach 17 million barrels a day. maybe more we had him on the show and predictions terrified me because when we own oil stocks, they have been duds if he's right, they will keep being duds fortunately for members of the ax alert plus.com club, they owned anadarko but it might have been a disaster. let's go back to the 12 million barrels a day of domestic production heading to 17 the problem is there is only so much demand for oil. and governments around the world are trying to cut back on that

demand because they are worried about global warming and that's the recipe for lower prices, the technology keeps getting better and better it's come down and total production might increase by 1 million barrel as day this year. at the same time, natural gas is practically worthless so the oil drilling money flows into oil. we have these massive conservation efforts, electricity use is down 7% year over year because we're using more efficient light bulbs the massive natural gas is crush price and put it together and it's hard to justify in wonder the oil patch can't get out of the way on a terrific up day for the price of crude and unify and largely irrelevant opec bent on trying to keep prices higher. stick with cramer.

2019 has taught us it's okay to be skeptical but not too skeptical because then you might miss one unbelievable move like we had in the first half which was truly incredible did you sell your microsoft before you should have did you sell your chipotle now you've learned what happened is the people came right back to buy them this market can still go higher. i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it for you here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i'll see you tomorrow

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