tv Street Signs CNBC July 3, 2019 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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i'm willem marx. in london, christine lagarde lands the nomination to head the ecb as eu leaders finally reach an agreement on the top jobs. bond yields fall across europe with germany's ten-year bund sliding to a fresh record low while the gil sink gilt sin left level since 2013. and sainsbury faces
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declines. and the fed has two new nominees including judy shelton who has called on the federal bank to cut rates as soon as possible just to bring you some final composite pmi numbers for june across the eurozone, they're in at 52.2 against a flash number of 52.1. slightly higher than the may number, 51.8 that flash pointed to a strong expansion in the private sector of the previous six months we've seen that upward trend as services hit a high. back in may, they were 52.9 and 53.4 in the flash for june they have come in slightly higher than the flash.
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the june final services new export businesses pmi at 59.4, higher than the flash of 48.9, not significantly better than the may final. nearly back up to another 50 mark the the euro/dollar is slightly weaker on that news we can see if you look at the european markets generally, you see a relatively positive day. trading more then a half percent higher now if you look at the individual markets, you can see where that is coming from the ftse mib performing relatively strongly today, up 1% in the uk, some corporate stories including sainsbury's with the disappointing third
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quarter in a row coming down to clothing and general merchandise. in germany, the xetra dax trading 0.63% higher you can see food and beverages performing well as are utilities. bank stocks are slightly in positive territory now that potential appointment of christine lagarde as the new president of the european central bank seems to have had an impact on those bank stocks people thinking she might be a dovish successor to mario draghi, very much in line with his views on that. european leaders have agreed on a slate of nominations for the eu's most important roles after three consecutive days of negotiations they suggested christine lagarde should head the ecb. they nominated a president of the european commission.
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president of the european council is charles michel, and josep borrell will be the foreign policy chief christine lagarde has warned against an overreliance on central bank policy. >> it is one of the very few central bankers who has a little bit of space i would agree with sergio. it would be nice if the economies at large didn't have to rely on the central banks yet again in order to resist the next shock, that's why policymakers have to take the right course of action when it comes to fiscal policies and when it comes to completing the reforms that some of them have undertaken but some of them have just touched monetary policy alone cannot address the current delicate moment where we are. it requires those fix the roof
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please, which means conduct the structural reforms that will boost productivity and support long-term growth that is absolutely needed. >> we go to brussels this morning. silvia spent the last few days following the twists and turns of this process. how did we end up with christine lagarde ending up with the top job? >> we had a lot of french names on the table for the ecb presidency but then ultimately christine lagarde came first, not only because she's from french nationality, so she is supported by emmanuel macron, the french president, but also perhaps because she's a woman and the leaders, the 28 leaders of the eu wanted to see a 50/50 percent gender balance and at the top of the eu institutions. so perhaps that helped christine lagarde getting this position. when you look at other potential
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names on the table, there were not many other female presidents the ecb. when we look at christine lagarde, it's important to remember she was finance minister of france for a conservative government. so yesterday i asked different leaders here in brussels whether that could risk the independence of the ecb >> i have known madam lagarde for many years, i'm absolutely sure she will be very independent president of the european central bank. >> i know christine lagarde as the boss of the imf, i know her as a tough lady, somebody who knows has she wants, who is very clear on giving directions when you come to her to get a loan, very tough on conditions i would not like to be the european country that goes to the ecb asking for favors >> speaking of that 50/50 jen r
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gender balance, ursulavonder leyen is selected as european commission president >> we are looking for somebody who is understand our region, who doesn't have any negative view on this region. that is why we are satisfied >> if you remember, when we arrived here on sunday, the dutchman was the first name on the lers ist to become the next commission chief
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however he was very vocal about policy direction in hungary and poland, so they wanted someone who was a little bit less negative, let's say, on those countries. so von der leyen was that person so there were four presidencies up for grabs, two of them went to women so the leaders on that point achieved their aim of guaranteeing a gender balance. in sweden the riksbank has kept rates unchanged the central bank said external risk factors mean it will remain cautious on monetary policy. the uk ten-year yield, based on the fact that mark carney seems to echo those comments, has
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fallen to the lowest several since 2016 italy's ten-year bond yield has fallen to a 14-month low the gap with german bond yields is the tightest in almost a year the ten-year bund down at 0.394 negative percent the italian ten-year down to 1.75 and change. i'm joined by adam miller. obviously those lows compared to some interesting geopolitical moments, with brexit, in italy the messy election, broadly, is there anything attractive in the sovereign debt space >> i think emerging market bonds actually have not participated equally this this huge rally the yield on ten-year emerging market dollar bonbonds is 5.5%,
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5.6% when you compare that with 0.7 in the uk, negative in france aan close to negative in germany, even markets at risk like the greek government bonds, the yields on that are virtually the same >> you have the swedish central bank saying we have concerns about things like u.s./china trade. we heard similar comments from mark carney overnight. i'm wondering, given all that, given these potential downside risks why are people, you know, looking elsewhere? why are they not looking to the safer options like government bonds in terms of the economies where you might see a bit of safety >> you have to ask them. the yields in some of these markets -- i mean, u.s. doesn't look mad on those yields
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but the european yields and the uk yields. to think that greek government bonds would be yielding close to 2% would be unthinkable. to think the greek government bond would have the same yield as u.s. government bonds shows the amount to which system of these yields have been stretched. >> one interesting stat i saw is that the uk five-year yield was now lower than the two-year yield. that was the first time according to data that that has happened since august 2008 what happened in august of 2008. do you remember? >> i do remember the other thing to consider is it's not just -- for retail investors, let's say you're buying a uk government debt fund, and it's buying these bonds yielding 0.7% over ten years, by the time you put in management charges, it's virtually impossible you'll get return there's huge amounts of uk
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retail funds, which are invested in an area where actually after charges it's unlikely they'll get a return >> i'm glad you brought up management charges, we can talk about management more broadly. what do you make of this discussion focused on the asset management world around liquid versus illiquid portfolios in >> this is something we raised quite a few years ago. the day after the brexit vote, property prices in the uk fell typically 25%, 30% the listed property prices the property funds investing in the district pr direct properties, those managers chose to ignore that vote, completely ignore the fact that listed property prices had fallen we warned the fca the day after that vote, nothing happened. you have this stampede of investors spotting this huge gap between the real price and the
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abstract price today we have the same thing we have smaller company funs, large ones, we still have these direct property funds. if you think about what's going on in retail properties, there's a very major fund in the uk, over 50% is in retail properties what is the valuation of those properties in the current environment? i would say -- >> anyone's guess. >> anyone's guess. how regularly do they re-value it investors are hypothetically buying and selling units at this asset value. meanwhile the quoted property prices are saying we don't believe these asset values, otherwise they wouldn't be on a discount >> that the the value assessment of some of these assets. i wonder about the liquidity of assets this is a conversation a lot of fund managers are having now do you understand -- can you explain why some managers have gone looking for these very
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illliquid assets >> all i can say is i used to run uk active funfunds. when i worked for various institutions, there was strict limits on how much you could invest in that kind of category, companies, in terms of percentage in companies. of course you would expect the liquidity to resemble the liquidity that investors have. there was a miss match, not just the woodforde fund, there's a large number of funds in the uk, they have not addressed this sooner or later there will be other funds, maybe the direct property funds, small company funds that will hit the same hurdles. >> you said they've not addressed this, is that saying
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they should address it >> they should address it. you can say it's like a bank, the bank can't have everybody enjoying money at the same time and can't manage on that basis, but there must be a compromise position where you can manage the fund to reflect a reasonable expectation of what investors might want to do and the liquidity should reflect the underlying liquidity of the fund >> alan, thanks. do stay with us. if you have any views on liquid versus illiquid, get in touch with us. there's quite a few new meps taking part in casting their first ballot to elect their new president this morning we'll be back after this break your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change,
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weak clothing and general merchandise shales weighed down the retailer and the outlook remains uncertain. pressure is growing on the ceo to attempt a new plan after the merger was blocked in april. a u.s. court is set to lower the damages payment against bayer in a key legal case. the judge in san francisco said he would slash the which
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could include as many as 20,000 job cuts banks in european union need to raise 135 billion euros to meet global capital requirements by 2027 that could impact the dividend plans if they need to use profits to fill the gap. the europeanbanking authoritie say the block's largest lenders face the bulk of that potential short fall china's services activity weakened it a four-month low in june pmi fell to 52 during the period this weaker data raises further concerns about the chinese economy as beijing battles to contain the fallout from a prolonged trade set of tensions with the united states the bank of england governor, mark carney, warned of a change in global outlook by investors he said the market reaction
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highlighted fears that trade tensions could be perpervasive, persistent and damaging. >> current trade will have an important outlook for trade an inflation. >> let's talk about trade. is this something that interests you, the resolution potentially of trade tensions? is it something that should interest all trade managers? does it matter >> of course it matters because trade wars are negative for corporate earnings growth, negative for investors
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you have to recognize the market in a way is always worrying about something. the area in which it worries tend to change from time to time the last six months has been worrying about this huge escalation in potential trade wars between the u.s. and various other markets. as the economies slow, as the u.s. economy slows, that puts a lot of pressure on trump to actually resolve matters, particularly politically it's not going to favor him if the trade war dampens u.s. growth and jobs growth you have to sometimes look through the rhetoric a bit like slows markets forcing central banks to lower interest
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rates, the same problem in the trade wars the pressure from the markets, the pressure from the politics on trump to dampen things down >> threading a needle, walking a tightrope at some point. do you think from the perspective of investors in europe, the concerns about future trade disputes between the u.s. and europe -- and we saw $4 billion worth of tariffs being suggested yesterday by the u.s. trade rep, do you think that is far more concerning if we see that come to fruition >> mr. trump seems to have issues regarding european trade, maybe that's the next leg of his activity in terms of rhetoric which would be damaging to sentiment and confidence >> you mentioned the market --
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to use that abstract concept, has been concerned about this for the last six months. so far this year, it looks like you had a reasonable time of it. what that made that possible given that there's persistent concerns about trade >> we have always invested with a widespread last month we sold a small exposure to russia which is up 35% in sterling terms. uk has been strong the we're focused on big blue chips, and big blue chips have done better than the smaller companies. in bonds, the underlying yield is 3.8% per anum. this is an unusual year where
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bones and equities have done well >> you cashed out our russia position russia as an asset class, if you will, tracks oil closely >> historically it has, but over the last year or two, the oil market has not gone up and the russia market has. >> some an lealysts have said tr price target for oil is more closer to 60 than 65 what were your reasons behind your decision to take your profits from russia? >> in russia we've been quite opportune. we've invested four timessince we started the business ten years ago. we typically invest for about six or nine months we try to invest at times when russia is always out of favor, but hugely out of favor and valuations are always low, but even lower than they usually are.
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look back what happened with sanctions. it's almost forgotten now. >> thank you for joining us. that was alan miller we have been talking about oil there, coming up, russia and saudi arabia appear to run the show in vienna we'll get reaction from the opec secretary-general when we come back after a day of chasing dogs you shouldn't have to chase down payments. (vo) send invoices and accept payments to get paid twice as fast. (danny) it's time to get yours! (vo) quickbooks. backing you. with tough food, your dentures may slip and fall. fixodent ultra-max hold gives you the strongest hold ever to lock your dentures. so now you can eat tough food without worry. fixodent and forget it.
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm willem marx in london. christine lagarde lands the nomination to head the ecb as eu leaders finally reach an agreement on the top jobs. bond yields fall across europe with germany's ten-year bund sliding to a fresh record low why the italian two-year extends its fall into negative territory. oil prices consolidate after opec agrees to extend output cuts to 2020 russia has become an important
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ally >> there is now a very strong bond of working relationship between us and russia. this goes right up to the top, to the leadership. president trump names two new nominees to the federal reserve including his former economic adviser and fed critic, judy shelton, who has called on the central bank to cut rates as quickly as possible. just to bring you fresh data here in the uk the oil sector pmi is 49.2 for june that's against the may number of 50.7 services pmi has come in at 50.2 as well. that is against the may number of 51. in april it was 50.4
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it looks like the pmi data suggesting that the uk economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter according to ihs market which monitors this data sterling is weaker against the dollar by a quarter percent. the euro also weaker against the dollar the dollar has weakened against the japanese yen potentially another indication of people looking for safety there. the dollar is stronger against the swiss franc. it may be that yen is just performing particularly well this morning let's look at european markets you can see the u.s. markets, seemingly looking it open higher today much the seventh record high this year for the s&p 500 looking to open up six points. dow jones 43 poen points higher the nasdaq 31 points higher.
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let's look at the european markets briefly. the oil market there, the ftse 100 is a half percent higher xetra dax similar story. the cac 40 in paris a half percent higher the ftse mib seemsly alongside some of the interest in the sovereign debt, attracting investors this morning around 1% higher so far. mohammed ba kiy colleague jy joins me live from vienna. is there any surprise about this decision to extend production cuts >> no real surprises we've seen this meeting in vienna now concluding, but real questions remaining about
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whether or not this deal reached at the opec meeting is going to be effective in reducing global inventories and stabilizing the oil market we saw ministers within the opec group extending production cuts into the second half of the year and into the first quarter of 2020 the reaction in the oil markets tells us these ministers may not have gone far enough however the opec secretary-general said ministers needed to act decisively in the face of what are concerns about global demand moving forward and global economic growth as well as attempting to offset increasing and rising u.s. shale output >> we are faced with a surge of supply from non-opec, in particular the united states in the shale basins it's pos alalso positive in thee
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that a few months ago there were concerns of shortages in the world. we saw the market was responding me and there were calls from opec and non-opec to ensure there is ample supply we have also seen stocks build up in the u.s. and globally. >> the next opportunity for the group to assess how the deal is translating into the global oil markets will come in september in abu dab bubu dhabi they will look at how things have progressed so far they will also meet again in vienna in december it will be interesting to see how this feeds into the oil market the other thing we spoke to the secondary general about was his efforts to soften opec's image in the united states his moves to try to form some kind of line of communication with the trump administration. we have ministers across the
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arab states working to staebilie the oil market but the u.s. not part of this conversation mr. barkindo told me that he has been able to have conversations with some of the highest echelons of the u.s. administration, however he has not spoken directly with president trump. you might recall that president trump did say recently that he called opec and told opec to take it easy it does appear the two have actually not had a real conversation let's see how that relationship continues to develop >> dan, it's not just the u.s. impact on production, it's also the u.s. impact in the region. we've seen sanctions in iran significantly squeeze their ability to export oil. i wonder whether any conversations you've had there over the last couple of days have touched on the idea that u.s. interference or the u.s. impact on the region has done more than damage iran's oil
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production potential but also had a major impact more generally on the geopolitics >> that's right. we also had the opportunity to speak with russia's energy minist minister, alexander novak. i asked how he's reading these tensions in the middle east. we have not only seen the attacks of tankers, but also the downing the u.s. drone he said the instability is a direct result of the u.s. sanctions. >> translator: i don't think that iran is the cause of the unstable situation in the persian gulf the actions taken against iran in the form of sanctions for which oil production and export is a key aspect are very important. iran has always been one of the largest oil exporters in the world. oil production and export are critical for the iranian economy. regarding restrictions on
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iranian exports, we support iran and believe the sanctions are unlawful they have not been approved by the u.n. these steps destabilize the situation, not only in iran, upon whom the sanctions have been imposed but as we can all see, in the entire region around the persian gulf what is important is they don't ultimately lead to results >> alexander novak speaking to cnbc on the sidelines of the opec meeting russia has been pivotal in the conversation around stabilizing the oil market and opec has been working with russia to bring price stability. the other thing we talked about were the concerns about how the deal came together this deal was the result of a handshake in osaka after a meeting with vladimir putin and the saudi crown prince, mohammed
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bin salman not necessarily a decision made at a ministerial level in vienna members like iran had said that undermines opec's decisionmaking ability moving forward i asked whether russia has too much influence when it comes to the decisionmaking efforts of the group, he rejected that saying this is very much a collective effort and of course when you have leaders like the president of russia and the leader of saudi arabia meeting at the g20, then of course given their positions when it comes to their role as oil producers, it's only natural that the topic of oil would come up in their conversation and a deal like this would be discussed. he very much agrees with the opec secretary-general in saying that opec's formal process of making decisions, a collaborative approach to oil price management is still intact back over to you >> dan, thank you for that detail there
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our next guest says we moved to a why not moment in sustainable investing as portfolios a s are appearing more resilient during downturns. julia petegrini joins us now you had these funds for almost a year how labor intensive is it when you're trying to meet with individual actors, whether corporations or even local public authorities, trying to dig down into the information they're willing to provide and understand whether they're going to be a place to invest money? >> we have found that we needed to do additional analysis. i will say we have been incorporating insights into our investment process for a number of years now we have stepped our game up on both the engagement piece, when
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we meet sovereign or corporate oil issuers we ask them how are you improving public financial management, or how are you taking care of some environmental standards if you're a corporate we also enhanced our analysis from a data standpoint and there we've been held by the fact that a number of years the provirsd o providers out there have improved the data. the data still needs undeniably some improvement, but we have seen some improvement over the last decade. so we can incorporate additional data pieces, building higher frequency indicators a couple providers now use artificial intelligence. so we're able to use the power of big data to gain additional insights to compliment our qualitative investment process
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with these data tools. >> you partner with jpmorgan on a set of benchmarks. do you think it makes it significantly easier having names like jpmorgan behind you when you call a corporate partner and say we would like to talk about this, this, this, do you think they take the call more willingly and feel more obliged to talk to you because of your strength in the market >> i think it's easier because they recognize the quality of the insights we provide. we have had a very, very good collaboration. that has served to a fine investment universe that we use in a scalable manner in debt, in esg fashion. it also helps to be a big house in the sense that we are a major investor in system of these corporates and sovereign debt issuers. so we're able to ask those questions because we do make the
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creditor nation or corporate understand that our end client, our investors want to hear some of those answers they are very interested in understanding what they're doing to improve the quality of the public financial management, but also the transparent of an oil company. how they're dealing with natural disasters. all of these questions we're able to ask. we find a lot of creditors are very receptive to that they're keen to showcase the work they've been doing to improve the business environment. we have very fruitful conversations. the partnership with jpmorgan has helped us invest what happened until then is we, like many peers out there in the asset management industry used emerging market debt in industries driven by market capitalization if you were a sovereign or corporate issuer, the more you issued, the higher your weight
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in an index. we changed to say if you have a higher esg score, we give you an extra weight we give you a higher weight. so we encourage you to do better in esg terms in the hope that over time we will drive more capital coming your way because you do improve your esg score. >> the point of that is those issuers that have stronger esg performance in your view at least, according to your benchmarks, will be a safer bet for peoples money over the long run and a more profitable bet. can you give me an example where your own techniques have highlighted a potential weakness in an issuer that perhaps the more standard metrics have not shown? >> we have a number of examples there. we use the inputs from the indices, but we're also ak tef active investors
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we apply those analytical tools that i was describing before with theious use of big data, capitalizing on additional esg data that has been produced, together with our own insights to look at investment themes around governance. there are packages or reforms supported by international financial institutions on a positive trajectory of travel. that has paid off in terms of asset prices also the ability to assess whether a company like ecuador, will the country be able to stay current on debt payments and have strong systems to ensure those debt payments while taking care of the needs of the population in such a difficult time our analysis shows that was possible and ecuador played out in that way and we played very
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well that opportunity for investors. >> julia, interesting conversation tesla shares have jumped 7% in after-hours trading after the electric carmaker set new quarterly production and delivery records tesla delivered 95,000 vehicles in the second quarter. the company hinted that strong demand will continue and said it is entering the third quarter with a backlog of orders u.s. auto sales continued their decline in june more generally, but suvs and pickup trucks provided one bright spot >> reporter: there was a time when ram trucks were considered a december tant third istant thp sales race not anymore. for the second quarter ram pickups outsold the gm
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silverado. an offer of 15% to 20% off ram's suggested retail price was a message that connected with buyers, and will help fiat chrysler's bottom line since pickup trucks have some of the largest profit margins fca sales fell fractionally in the second quarter while gm and toyota were down slightly more overall the strong economy, low unemployment and low interest rates are convincing americans to buy new vehicles, especially higher-priced models the average price paid is now close to $35,000 for the year auto sales are not far from the record pace seen over the last four years while june and second quarter sales are proof there's still plenty of demand for new vehicles, investors remain skittish about auto stocks, which have struggled to kick into a higher gear like the rest of the markets phil lebeau, cnbc business news,
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chicago. there was a total eclipse of the sun for hundreds of thousands of spectators in chile and argentina yesterday. the solar eclipse was best viewed below the world's clearest skies the region has not witnessed an eclipse since 1592 it's not expected to see another one until 2165 coming up on the show, president trump's senior trade adviser says the u.s. does not want its allies to rely on huawei technology. plus england's women crash at of the world cup in dramatic fashion at the hands of the united states. highlights after the break wanna take your xfi to the next level?
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world champions, the usa beat them 2-1 the england captain missed an 84th minute penalty to level the score. the usa will face either the netherlands or sweden in sunday's final sir andy murray confirmed he will partner with serena williams in the mixed doubles contest at wimbledon starting this week. ash barty turned him down so he asked williams, a 23 grand slam winner and seven times double champion at whim whim imbledon y alongside him. murray la whas won the singles l twice. shares in symantec surged 22% in after hours trading on reports that broadcom is lining up a bid for the firm. the deal could be worth more than $15 billion and would
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enable them to diversify into software shares in broadcom fell on this news vodafone will launch the uk's second 5g wireless network today. bt also announced this morning that it will launch 5g broadband for customers starting this autumn uk is one of the fastest moving countries in the space, that means carriers are relying on huawei equipment radio antennas at a time when the british government is considering placing restrictions on the chinese company over security concerns the ceo of huawei says any easing of u.s. restrictions won't have much impact on the company's day-to-day business. in an interview he said huawei must adjust to u.s./china trade
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tensions and said restrictions on u.s. components will help the firm to further its own capacity elizabeth schulze joins me around the desk with more on this we heard president trump over the weekend say one thing or hint at one thing. then at least one of his senior advisers said not so fast. >> that's right. yesterday on cnbc peter novara came on and said there will be a limited number of chips that will be sold -- that u.s. companies will be allowed to sell to huawei then said we'll continue to put this ban inplace we want this to be our policy, we want that hard line against huawei listen to how he addressed concerns with its allies on the huawei question. >> we will work closely with allies around the world to make sure huawei 5g is not in those countries. in the meantime a small amount of low-level chips will be sold
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to keep systems going. that's not a bad thing when it gets us back to the bargaining table with china and with china committing to immediate and significant purchases of agricultural goods. let's see if they deliver on that >> certainly some concerns that the u.s. might have given up leverage by this concession with huawei peter navarro trying to back tack tra hat a little bit the u.s. has been on a mission trying to convince allies not to use equipment with 5g. vodafone does use huawei equipment. part of the question is how much that will be a focus in the rollouts, will the companies try to mute that they're not selling huawei phones so far, but the equipment remains a crucial part of the networks >> how successful has the u.s. been some allies in other parts of the world have said you're right, we'll step back from
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this is the uk the outlier? is it the one saying we don't care, are there considerations around potential restrictions still ongoing? >> we've been waiting on this decision on whether there will be a blanket ban or not. there is already huawei equipment in place in the uk, many other european countries around the world from 3g and 4g networks it would take a lot of costs and infrastructure to replace those parts. and the companies, for example vodafone, they have said we don't want to do that it would delay the entire 5g rollout process. another big story from the trump administration, the president has revealed two fresh nominations to the federal reserve board. his former campaign mick adviser, judy shelton, who serves as the u.s. executive director of the european bank of reconstruction and development
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is seen as a critic of the bank and said interest rates should come as soon as possible and his second pick is christopher waller both nominees will still require senate confirmation. let's check in on u.s. futures ahead of the market open in new york after a seventh record high for the s&p 500, it is looking to open up at least 9 points higher the dow jones similarly looking to have a positive start to the day as is the nasdaq that is it for today's show here in london. i'm willem marx. thanks for watching. "worldwide exchange" is coming up in a few moments. when i was diagnosed with breast cancer, i went straight to ctca. after my mastectomy, i felt like part of my identity was being taken away. my team made me feel whole again. cancer treatment centers of america. appointments available now. cancer treatment centers of america.
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good wednesday to you 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters tesla shares surging after new delivery and production records were set. shares of symantec soaring on talks that broadcom is looking to acquire the security softwaremaker. president trump announces plans to nominate two economists as central bank governors. the ten-year treasury yield falling back below 2%. and the passing of a corporate legend the auto world remembers the life of lee iacocca after the industry icon died at the age of
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