only energy lower. do we need to see the russell start to take part as well >> it wouldn't hurt. in general hard to find fault with the nature how the market got to this point. there was some broadening out. you are seeing more new highs. obviously, sure, why not let's have the russell join the party, but it is not obviously that we need it. >> great stuff, mike thank you. that does it for "closing bell.." >> "fast money" begins right now "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq market spice overlooking new york city times square tonight on "fast" awarning fro samsung sending shoulders across the space today. the group down 10% from the highs. plus, stocks near records but one name is sitting out the rally that the chart master says is about to get a reboot hint, hint he will tell you what it is. we will start out with the markets putting on its own fireworks show and staging a reversal, the dow dropping

200 points after the jobs report ended the day down just 40 points. meantime the yield on the ten-year yield jump back above 2% president trump blasting the fed when speaking to reporters earlier today. >> we're paying a lot of interest and it is unnecessary, but we don't have a fed that knows what they're doing so it is one of those little things. but if we had a fed that would lower rates, you would have a rocket ship. >> so what is the market saying now about what it expects for a potential rate cut this month? >> didn't bullard and powell dress down the window for a rate cut last week, or at least going from 50 to 25 basis points i think powell should dress down the window i don't think he should cut. >> at all? >> the market thinks he should cut but you have a limited amount of ammo so why not string it out longer >> wasn't the argument that the fed moved too far? >> one cut too far. >> and it was more of an ee quill

quill -- equilibrium cut the question is was good news today bad news for that. if you look at fed funds, futures in terms of what we should expect for july, look, 100% in my view we go 25 bases points in july, no way to avoid it. >> the other thing is how could the market really care here we are with ten-year money basically as cheap as it is, is there really a difference between 215, 225, 195, and the market is getting so excited, disappointed payrolls were good, they weren't good it is absurd. >> isn't there a difference if it brings the yield down on the two-year so there's a -- >> at the end of the day this is not what should be driving the market. >> right, but it is -- >> it is about the fact that it is the worse in almost ten years for q2 going into the quarter and we're slowing. >> but to melissa's point the reason you saw financials leave was that, was if there's some type of action and you don't get -- >> of course, but, remember,

these are stocks down 20% and 30% from the highs. >> i think the big takeaway was the market closed around all-time highs, we shook it off. retail space, a lot of the department stores that couldn't get a bid, getting a bid bath because maybe the economy isn't terrible. >> if you looked at 15 best performing stocks in s&p they have one common character, all still are about 30%, 40% below the 52-week high, meaning it is catch-up trade >> is that a wise strategy though, a catch-up trade >> i don't know. i think right now it makes sense to be defensive. that defensive safety trait has worked well since september 30th i think it continues to work unless and until we hear a significant positive tone shift from ceos on this next round of earnings calls. >> what is defense, just to be clear, because some people say defensive is health care, utilities, rates others say it is technology. >> on a more immediate basis i would say defensive would be

consumer staples, utilities. i love the health care sector, there are just too many political headwinds right now. it will take longer for the stocks to pan out. >> defensive in the form of something like google where i look at the valuation, i look at the peg ratio and say i feel comfortable here, even independent of the headlines i do think that consumer discretionary, we spent a lot of time talking about fast food, we spent a lot of it talking about consumer staples we have talked a little bit about some of the discretionary purchases and even a nike despite some of the news in the past week. i think what mark is saying is during the times these have been the names that continued to outperform this is one of those times i agree, carter, with what you are saying in terms of who cares what is 10 or 15 basis points on the margin but it has been all about the fed, about easing, this is why stocks are going higher, and, therefore, it doesn't surprise me that the market is oscillating here a little bit on a day when, frankly, there weren't a lot of people at their desks. >> if you think about it, if you believe in the fed model, differ denied discount mod he, if you believe in the inverse of the pe, the earnings yield, the

market should be much higher why isn't it surging why are we only basically lunch floral 18 months >> because there's so much unknown in the marketplace right now. >> exactly, all of which could break the wrong way. >> of course that's the way markets are constantly, but i think it has kept the bears sort of on their heels because if you have -- why would you want to lean in and go short the market or really go -- i think positioning is the reason why the market's acting the way it is acting, the reason why it keeps rallying after every type of sell-off where people aren't long enough. they got caught short on the lows and are trying to catch up and a lot of the names are the retail space which has been performing terrible. people just want to cover now. >> i'm not sure i'm following. you said if you were a bear why would you want to lean in, but then you are saying -- >> they were shorted in the s&p, they went all in all of a sudden you had the rally where powell did his pivot, which we haven't seen in quite sometime -- >> eend at the end of the day -- >> that's where they have the

cover -- >> look at the work done out there, what are the prospectives for equities looking out two or three years from here, is it a risk/reward opportunity that's good to be in equities or otherwise? >> i can't put on that -- that's not the lookout -- >> what would you say? >> it is not a favorable trajectory. >> but if you said that, how long ago would you said it wasn't favorable. >> that's the whole point. >> right. >> 18 months people have been bullish all the way and we haven't done anything in a year and a half. >> but were you bullish. >> and the kids -- >> i'm talking about, carter -- >> and the children so to speak, still needs extra help he is okay. >> but look at the rally you would have missed. >> the fed would help -- >> look at the rally you would have missed. >> you're not missing anything. >> it is the equity -- >> it is 18 months with no pay and adjusted for risk -- >> given your outlook, carter, what would you invest in >> basically you have to be -- if you have to be in equities, you have to be in the safety trade, which is -- and yet everyone knows how expensive utilities are. it is, again, musical chairs

it is almost like that i have to keep dancing, but you don't. you can be in cash or you could find a name here and a name there, but the notion that you have to be in equities and you have to embrace this theme or that theme, growth versus value, it is all just not true. >> well, yeah, and, look, i agree on a risk adjusted basis carter is telling you that if you for the last 18 months dealt with the volatility we've had, which has been historic, not a great trade, but there have been plenty of opportunities to rotate in stocks, and we have seen a pretty safe rotation period over the last couple of months the question back to you, i would say, carter, retail underperformed the s&p by 20% in the last year. >> an equal weight thing like the xrt. >> i mean now that we've gotten affirmation that, look, six- month payrolls are 165 to 170 on average in the one year. i bring up the numbers, the consumer's probably about the same place they were on a payroll number as a year ago yet retail stocks are down 20% does today's number give you a reason to get more comfortable

on oversold retail >> conceptually that's a trading thing, and more importantly there's a structural problem in retail that's the point of the xrt making ten-year relative lows. >> before we move on let me ask this question. if the fed does not cut rates, which is what you think the fed should do, not cut rates -- >> yeah, knee jerk will be what you saw today. >> -- what would you -- if you had a crystal ball, it is telling you that the fed is not cutting rates, what do you do today to your portfolio? >> yeah, i mean i think it is -- >> you run. >> you probably want to risk adjust. >> so the market. >> for cover. >> so run for cover if the cost of ten-year money stays the same you need extra help. >> you sell now into the meeting and buy the marketplace. if you were in cash, you missed the market -- >> you are saying if the market doesn't get extra help from the teacher. >> i know it is a friday -- >> if the market doesn't get extra help -- >> no, no, take a step back. >> if you get extra help, you have to run. you said run. >> how about you let me speak? you're telling me what i would

say. >> i'm sorry go ahead. >> i think that the market should deal with what the market has, but right now the market is addicted to it. >> and so the addict needs more and you are saying if the addict doesn't get more you want to run. >> you should have been a psychologist or a psychiatrist. >> that's terrifying. >> you need to put on a different hat because the market right now needs the juice it is getting from the fed. >> that's -- >> it proves it constantly. >> that's my point, it need it. >> if you sat on the sideline and went to cash you are making nothing this year. >> you are playing games, using words like musical chairs. that's the point, make money let's talk about gold getting hit today, closing out first weekly loss in two months. heading to the plasma, what are we looking at? >> this is something you should be long if you want to diversify your portfolio instead of being long equities and hoping for more drugs from the dealer, gold >> wow >> here is the chart note the drawings by me.

here one way to draw the lines well-defined tops at a common level. a well-defined breakout and we pivoted back we dropped from last week's -- well, this week's high of 1441 to about 1,400 that's a nice entry point if you're not involved. if you are not, not big enough, it would be the time to get bigger pull it back another way to draw the lines, pull it back a little more another way to draw lines. but basically this has all of the elements of a major rounding bottom you can get rid of that and you could call it a head-and-shoulders bottom, but it all points to one thing a big period of equilibrium that looks to be resolved and the sell-off is quite an opportunity. let's zero in tighter and talk about what's going on, a little bit of the conversation we had on the desk. this is gold and the tlt bonds sold off, gold sold off. basically what you will see here is it is a normal reaction, meaning after a big move you rest after a big move you rest.

after a big move, and we are doing the same thing ultimately in tlt i think you have the same setup. just draw the staggered thing again. you get a big move, pull back, a big of mo. this consolidation ultimately, and that's the bet here, is resolved up and out. i want to be long goaled, and if you are already long i would get bigger. >> is this a safety trade you would buy into, mark >> yeah, i think it is going to continue to work, at least for the next few weeks, few months like i said, until we hear that positive tone shift, if we actually hear it from ceos, where would we be putting money right now? i don't know that gold makes sense for us at this point for our clients. i really look at this as more of a really calamity hedge, use it as an inflation hedge, and there's really no inflation right now. in fact, we are fighting deflationary forces because tariffs are really going to weigh down prices. >> see, i understand why gold is rallying, and certainly we talk about the negative yielding assets around the world, the european bond curves, et cetera, et cetera, so this is a place where gold is actually giving you knowing in terms of yield is actually positive. carter, about a month ago i

think it was probably a friday show where our final trades, he was long gold and i was short it he was right because at 1350 for the last five years we've been running up against this level, and this is the time that at least we have broken out to some point. the question i have is really if we get less fed rather than more fed, what happens to the gold prices chasing gold to me -- and obviously i think we're all talking about this in the context of a rational portfolio allocation. >> sure. >> so whatever that is, 1%, 2%, 3%, but chasing it here i don't feel good about. chasing the gdx i think is very dangerous here gold miners are not gold. >> embedded in that sort of statement about the fed is what happens with the dollar. so do you see dollar weakness? >> dollar slumps and it has recovered a bits, but it gets back to what it does if they cut 25, i don't know whether gold likes that or doesn't like that. ultimately, if they really start cutting. >> they cut 50 and gold likes it. >> gold likes it, sure. >> peter jones pitched it june 12th, said it was the best

idea for the next year or two. gold rallied about 3%. then when we saw on the 19th the fed come out, it rallied another 6% i think to your point if the fed -- if you get less fed, you get less gold rally. >> coming up, financials a bright spot in the market today, hitting a 2019 high, but one of the traders says it could be time to fade the group. we have the details. plus, canopy suffering a bit of a hangover after the ceo bruce linton said he was ousted from the company but is there more to the story than meets the eye tim will read the leaves >> oh, my. >> more "fast money" right after this this cnb program is sponsored by - this cnb program is

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welcome back to "fast money" chip stocks taking a hit today after samsung reported second quarter products likely fell more than 50%. let's get down to the new york stock exchange with more on this, deidre bosa. >> reporter: hey, melissa. the orecast was better than expected thanks to a one-time gain, but pretty ugly otherwise. as you mentioned q2 profits likely fell over 50% samsung grapples with a chip market hit by a double whammy of surplus supply and slowing demand now, the broader story here

though is about samsung's year of slowing profits and a global supply chain being hit by trade tensions analysts say that the trade war and the u.s. export ban on huawei has hurt global demand for memory chips if restrictions stay in place, that could pressure chip prices even further there's also trade tensions between japan and south korea which could be yet another headwind for semi conducto firms. overnight south korean chip makers lg and sk hynix were hit harder than samsung. today you see american names being dragged down there could be a silver lining though for samsung while memory chips are its biggest business, it is the number one smartphone maker. so even though galaxy s10 sales have been sluggish, samsung could benefit from huawei's pain remember that huawei is the number two smartphone shipper. the idea is if huawei sells less phones samsung could ping up some of the slack. samsung makes components for rivals in device space and it is

ramping up its 5g network equipment business other chip makers though, they don't have the potential upside and so they wait revived trade talks next week. back over to you, melissa. >> all right dedra bosa at the new york stock exchange we are awaiting the resolution of trade and the lifting of the ban on huawei. it is very unclear as to whether or not chips will be able to supply huawei anything at this point. we don't know how it shakes out. >> it is true. it is not a peace treaty, it is a truce in the short side. even japan has thrown export tariffs on samsung in terms of three corrin greed yents on them used in making memory chips. if you think about the memory dynamic, the huawei dynamic, having said all of that samsung unperformed triple qs by 40% in the last year and a half i think it is one of the best companies in the world, and despite the headwinds i think the market priced in an enormous amount relative to the peer group. in the peer group i would rather

be long on samsung than other chip players at this point. >> such as as opposed to long broadcom? >> qualcomm is a bit dangerous because of mna dynamics and the legal dynamics which could work for and against you, but certainly in terms of a broadcom, certainly in terms of an intel which is a name i like, but i think samsung is overly beaten up in terms of their diversity and the business model is interesting here. >> i like nvidia which gives us exposure to the high end markets we want to play whether it is a.i., autonomous vehicles, gaming, they had exposure to those. they are crypto problems they cleared it out. i think it is priced at a good level right now. i like broadcom as well. it gives you exposure to the software space with their recent acquisition. we like software over semis right now. you have access to the software revenues as a diversification play we like that one as well.

>> amd has outperformed. intel to tim's point has underperformed i would say you have to take profits in amd right now even though there's been a bunch of positive headlines and rumors about being involved in next generation xbox and microsoft cutting intel chips, adding amd. i think you have a lock in your products i think it is close to 70%, i don't know if i have it right, it could be close to 10% >> what's the best chart in chips? >> i would think it is amd nvidia is trying to bottom you mentioned something important, it is back to safety versus offense you like software better than semis? >> i do. yes. >>that's a defensive posture. >> correct for more on semes head over to cnbc.com. you are watching melissa lee on "fast money", first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here is what is coming up. >> either let us smoke we had, which is our right to do >> bye-bye. >> bye. >> canopy shares a falling after

ceo bruce linton said bye-bye to the company. there's something tim seymour says wall street is missing about the move he will read the weed leaves. >> stick with us. >> a handful of stocks have been sitting out this record rally, but one of the traders says there's a big dow lagger about to catch up. he will tell us what that is much more "fast money" right after this ♪ limu emu & doug mmm, exactly! liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. nice! but uh, what's up with your partner?

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welcome back to "fast money" the cannabis industry is up in smoke after canopy announced ceo bruce linton was stepping down i spoke with bruce after the announcement. >> i think stepping down might not be the right phrase. on november 1st we closed $5

billion, 4 u.s. billion for about 17% of the company and a condition of the closing was the board had to be reconfigured about eight months and two days later, i think the board had decided they wanted a different chair and a different co-ceo so i'm out effective immediately and there's a search to replace the transitioning co-ceo i was terminated >> he was terminated there is an argument that for an entrepreneur who started a company, you bring the company up to a certain point, and then you release the reins -- we have seen it time and again in the tech industry, but it is an industry supposedly still on the upward trajectory in terms of growth would you really leave a company at this stage of the game how do you read this >> again, it doesn't sound like he left at all think about big brother there. big brother is constellation brands, a global consumer products company, who basically raised the ante on the entire industry. >> right. >> to me, first of all, if you want to speak about it for the whole industry, it is actually

good news. this is about a sign of maturity for an industry that's had many different phases already in the last year and a half for bruce linton, ultimately it is a frustrating time for a guy that wasvisionary and brought the company out of nowhere, arguably was the de facto leader of the industry and, you know, that has to be painful, but it is not the first time we have ever seen this happen. frankly, that's the issue when you have a global cpg company. by the way, constellation was a family-run business that had major changes in the last six months in terms of a change at the top. >> yeah. >> it doesn't surprise me at all. >> if i am a ceo of a pot company and i am bringing in a partner to invest a major stake and become the larger shareholder with board seats, i would think twice. >> that was mine -- when you were doing the interview, that was my first thought if you need the money, you need the cashin jeks, you need the branding, you need all of the promotional stuff, but what comes along with that are mature companies that run a whole lot different than the cannabis space. so be aware of that when you are

raising money. >> how do the charts look, carter >> this is more of a theme, right? a little bit like gold do you want to be exposed or not? if so, how to do it. you might as well use the utf, the mj alternative and have some in your portfolio and play the long game. >> just quick, are you in marijuana? >> we own constellation brands so we have a call option constellation brands is a company that are used to making money and they want to continue making money, and they're really applying the full-court press to canopy right now to get them to start making money. >> all right. >> that's the way we would play it. >> time for the final trade. carter. >> walmart playing catch-up. >> steve grasso. >> net theme of the retail space underperforming. i say macy's, maybe you get a couple of days of the rally out of it. >> mark tepper. >> pepsi, we love the momentum in their snack business, freet olay. >> tim. >> you know, we did wish you happy 4 a day late were you flipping burgers on the

grill? >> i was not i was preparing for "squawk box. >> how were the fireworks? >> fantastic, i slept through them. >> don't sleep through sisco they're leading the way. happy day after the 4th. >> have a great ekd.ween options actions up after this options actions up after this break. there's also angry. i'm really angry clive! actually, really angry. thank you. but what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling... and then do something about it. turn problems inrtunities. thanks drone. customers into fanatics change the whole experience. alright who wants to go again? i do! i do! i have a really good feeling about this. your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity.

♪ carter, are you going to use your jacket or not use your jacket tim has no jacket. oh, okay interesting. nice ♪ it's friday ♪ i'm in love

hey there. at the nasdaq market site on this summer friday and tim stuck around for the big show. here is what is coming up. ♪ up, up and away >> delta shares have been up, up and away this year mike khouw and his co-pilot tim seymour think the sky is clear for the stock earnings next week they'll layout the trade plus, the dow hit a new record this week, but there's a handful of stocks sitting on the bench >> the kid is a l7 weenie. >> take a chill pill smalls, because the chartmaster says there's on