>> yes fed minutes on wednesday and also inflation data, as well >> yeah. so it all filters in, and that will kind of tide us over until we get real earnings coming in >> i'll sell sarah you said levi and pepsi aren't real earnings >> they're real but bellwether >> that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts now looking at times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight, apple at a crossroads as the tech giant pivots are the best days behinds there stock? transports in trouble, sinking back into a correction but there's one name in the group that chart master it says a screaming buy. first, the markets and it was just last week that stocks were hitting fresh record highs. angelser singing, and it looked like there was nothing stopping this rally but it was a snap back to reality today as the dow sinks triple digits, down nearly 200 at the lows of the session

the market rewinding as the fed rate cut hopes are dampened. wall street is getting more bearish as morgan stanley says to sell stocks now euro banks are in turmoil as deutsche bank takes measures to restructure. did it come too far too fast, and are we about to see a stock rewind guy? >> number one -- >> karen's back, you're -- everybody's back now >> gang's all here >> all here. >> and the matching outfit - >> matchy-matchy >> cute. >> what's wrong, dan i haven't seen you in a month and you're already discounting me - >> no, i'm loving the syracuse orange way to represent, people >> listen, i think stocks have gone too far, too fast, absolutely i thought that, you know, probably 250, 200 dow points ago, maybe 75 s&p handles to go. with that said, you know, the morgan stanley, thrive beentive. i think they're going to be right. the thing on the list that concerns me the most believe it or not is deutsche bank and european banks in general. i do think the market's banking way too much on the federal reserve that is now -- people think the fed controls the market i think the market controls the

fed. but i think we're at a level now where if you've enjoyed these gains, you got to be taking money off the table. >> yeah. so you just mentioned that market expectations about a rate cut. we know that obviously the fed fund futures are pricing in a near certain see of a july cut and's whether it's 25 or 50 bips. what does that do to expectations the fact is if the market is going to bully the fed into the sort of move along with the president, then we come into a difficult phase of what happens next in this bull market because it then becomes all the sudden fairly artificial. there's a lot of economists that we would bring on, and they would say, listen, this is good, the stock market can go up we're in the rate hiking phase that we were in over the last few years. so to me i think it puts us in a very bad spot. one last thing about european banks, if you overlie the sx 70, it's probably one of the worst looking charts of the euro, stock, bank index, versus the ten-year bund right there. the yield. you look at that over the ten years and you say, there's some real problems there.

we know the ten-year bund yield is negative -- >> i think we need just take a breath here on -- deutsche bank news is concerning on many different levels but the deutsche bank news is a restructuring that's about the global capital markets business and refrenching into core businesses -- retrenching into core businesses. deutsche bank's been a mess in capital markets. they have a big derivative book, they've eviscerated more balance sheet equity than any bank of probably all time. outside of the ones that are flow longer with us. this isn't new news. the announcement is not about the sudden vulnerability about the european banking industry. i think if you look at european banks, i think they're as well capitalized as they have been in a long time. i don't think we're on the verge of a european banking crisis greece is up 44% year to date. selected a new prime minister. i'm not going to tell you that europe is great. to think that tomorrow europe's our problem, i think despite the negative yielding bonds, the biggest issue is our fed and the biggest issue is we're going to get more fed over the next two weeks than we've probably digested in a long time >> when you say more fed, fed

info. or cuts, or -- >> i mean fed -- fed headlines we're going to have powell, four days this week effectively we've got a huge fed meeting next week. we've got minutes from the last one. we've got a testimony tomorrow we've got all kind of dynamics yes, i think i agree with everybody that, look, the market is basically moved lower on expectations of a fed that based upon friday's bayroll number -- payroll number does not need to be aggressive here >> karen >> yeah, i've been afraid of this market for a while. i think in the last couple of weeks, the -- from the g20 there was a nice bump there. that hasn't been resolved as far as i know, right to me that is a huge issue still to come, and we'll start to see earnings i'm more pessimistic on earnings than i have been in a long time. and so i don't know if it makes much difference if the fed cuts -- i think 50s off the table given -- 50s off the table given the job number i don't know that it makes much difference - >> versus zero you think it makes a difference if the get -

>> i think it does make a difference day one, but after the initial, i guess it will trade up if they cut 25 basis points, after that i'm not sure it makes a difference. >> the market or earnings, you're saying the rate cut's not doing anything for the earnings. >> that's the story for me i'm concerned about the market i'm concerned about the uncertainty of the tariff situation has created a pullback in spending. and that we're going to see that i'm concerned about that this -- i mean, this market movement today, it's nothing it's just little bit of noise on what has been a very big run i have to say, kudos to guy who has been all over deutsche bank for probably -- seems like well over a year saying trouble, trouble, trouble >> it's as if they fired him - >> real quickly, though, i think you're sugar coating what's going on part of this restructuring is also putting some bad assets, lots of bad assets into a bad bank >> the total balance sheet - >> that's right. i think we've seen - >> bad bank -- >> it's worked out in the states when we did it with some of these. they went massively to recapitalize these they took the government

bailouts it had to work, okay and the problem that you had with the negative yielding rates weren't just having more sovereign debt that's going negative yielding, it's not getting smaller. if you look at those just -- maybe that's too simplistic to overlay the equity of those banks and the ten-year bund yield. but it's not good. >> it s th-- is this the canaryn the coal mine? >> we're bearish you're -- we're not trying to keep you invested in the market. we're not putting allocations out. we're basically trying to say these are the things that could go wrong if no one's going to tell you that, you're doing this whole thing wrong. that's my personal view about it if we're going to start -- >> i'm bearish today - >> i feel like it's important for people to talk about these things i feel it's important not to sugarcoat them because i think what happened today with deutsche bank is significant >> are you optimistic about earnings season? >> not really. >> okay. >> i'm optimistic about a world where i think the global economy but certainly the u.s. economy when the fed is operating today is not in a place where i think

if we have lower rates, a fed that if anything is a tailwind for market, i think in the short to medium term that's more important than earnings. and i've seen this movie so many times over the last ten years. and -- but back to what dan is saying, look, the 70 basis basis point fall in global bond yields is something that equity investors should be very concerned about. i don't think it's sustainable and i think lower rates have been a boom for equity markets for many different reasons including just how compute the discount rate of owning an equity valuation so i'm a little concerned at these levels i'm not concerned about the systemic damage even though it is out there it's just to me, it's not tomorrow, and it's not next week, and it's not today's headline >> see, i hear what tim -- i didn't mean to say that deutsche bank, something changed. nothing changed except you saw the headline over the weekend into today that's what changed. but, you know i'm probably in the minority that thinks there almost has to be some systemic risk associated with deutsche bank and the derivatives book.

there has to be counterpart risks. if this was a u.s. bank, which it's not bviously, i think we' talk about them every day instead of every five or six days which i think is interesting i mean, i'm not suggesting it's baier stearns or lehman brothers but that there aren't far-reaching aspects, i don't know if there is, but i can categorically say there's definitely, you know, it's not is or isn't but it's -- you can't -- you can't be completely confident that the answer is no there's no systemic risk >> in a nutshell, you four are bearish to varying degrees >> yes but let me say i'm always long it's always going to be my bias. >> structurally cautious, tactically optimistic. and i just -- one more thing about deutsche and what the guy's talking about because he's talking about a real -- if germany, europe's biggest economy, and deutsche, their biggest bank, are under a lot of pressure, it means there's going to be a lot of unit in the

european union -- unity in the european union which basically is controlled by the germans so that's very good for bailout and policy and everything that the stock markets love >> all right our next guest says the rally has been propped up by hopes of a rate cut but investors shouldn't chase stocks ceo and chief investment officer at morgan creek capital management mark, always great to speak with you. >> great to be with you. >> we've called you the man who called the 20% sell-off in the fall and that was right. here we are back close to record highs. where do you see the dangers now? >> it's almost precisely nine months since we had that conversation and i made your jaw drop saying markets could fall 40% we only got half of it now we're right back to near levels where we were in october, about in the, flat back to january -- about flat, flat back to january of 2018, adjusted for inflation. i think we're as overvalued as we were then i think the risks are to the downside, what you guys were

talking about. i think the one thing that people are making a mistake about is they're saying that an interest rate cut is a good thing because they can use a lower discount rate. but they're not looking at the reason why the fed would cut rates which is that earnings and growth are going to be a disaster so you're going to be discounting a lower number you get a lower number >> unless you believe that the next cut is going to be an insurance cut. that it's -- things are not a disaster right now i mean, you're a bear, so you may think that things are disaster, but there are plenty of people who think, you know, fundamentally things are all right. we are see something sonching in the data here -- softening in data here in the fuunited state, softening in the world, but things aren't going off a cliff. >> if you'll find anybody who will say that earnings are going to be great and have a strong recovery even those that were saying we're going to have a second half recover y are saying maybe 2020 that you'll get anybody to say things are going to get awesome really quickly i think all of the economic data

has been very disapublic interesting. gdp has been disappointing the atlanta fed, gdp now is down to 1.3% for q2 that's way below what people were saying, 3%, 4%, even six months ago i think earnings season's going to be the classic example of you take the bar off the rack, you put the bar on the grounds, you jump over the bar, and then you claim you're the world high-jump champion >> mark, what's the catalyst for this move to the downside? i mean, you can make an argument the catalyst in september and october was powell being as hawkish as any fed chair's been since, you know, you go back 3 or 40 -- 30 or 40 years. is the next catalyst an earnings season that disappoint and that's why we roll over? >> look, i think that's the really, really great point that -- what we're missing now is the catalyst. they're their clearly was the catalyst last fall was the hawkishness and powell saying he was going to be his own man. and then doing the powell

flip-flop. but i think today you were just talking about it, deutsche bank could be that canary in the coal mine there are big risks on their derivative book that people aren't really talking about. and look, i call it the national bank of germany for a reason it's too big to fail it will be bailed out, and the market may short term like that. but just like in the u.s. bailout in late 2007, remember when they banned short selling banks and tried to save all the banks? they went down 80%, 90% from there, from there, and i that were already down 50%, 60% this could be the beginning of a really tough period, and give me the upside i mean, somebody give me an upside reason to get excited >> mark, it's karen. let me throw out one even though i'm somewhat bearish china trade deal right? that is a case for the upside. what's your thoughts on whether that happens and if it does, what does that mean for the

market >> two things. one i think the china trade deal has been priced in four times already. i think it's buy the room or sell the news. i think the second problem is there will be no china trade deal i was with a guy who runs the china beige book, and -- at a conference a couple of weeks ago. we were speaking together. he said, look, two months ago there was a deal that china would sign, and trump backed away, and he said there is no deal that the u.s. can put in front of china that they will sign today because they're going to make him admit wrongdoing, and they're not going to do it i think that's going to be a big disappointment when people realize that the hope -- remember, hope is not an investment strategy. it's a four-letter word. the hope of a trade deal just isn't going to happen. >> well, some might disagree on the basis of a political cycle in which trump wants to be re-elected we'll put that aside for now, mark wee you, so we've got -- we have you, so we've got ask about bitcoin. does it reclaim highs? >> we're definitely going to

reclaim old highs. >> soon? >> i think what people miss about bitcoin -- >> soon or eventually? >> well, look, here's the crazy thing -- over the past year, bitcoin is up 70, 7-0 percent. everybody thinks it's in this bear market. over the past 12 months -- sorry, actually nine months, since we were together on october 7th, it's up 70% the best performing major asset class this year. and remember we were also together i think december 13th on "halftime," not "halftime," but your show in the afternoon we talked about it 3,100, is that the bottom? and look, that's a long way below here and i think we're in the next parabolic move that will take us probably into the 30,000 level before we get another little correction. and then, look, there's a great path -- i did a webinar today talking about the path to 100,000 by 2021 is really quite easy to draw out >> all right, we'll leave it

there. thank you. >> appreciate it all right. how do we trade this, dan? >> i think karen makes a good point about the thing that could turn sentiment if there was a comprehensive trade deal that no one's expecting. if everyone's priced it not to happen and you have the insurance cut or maybe one or two, then you set the stage for a market that's been recovering around 2,900 for 18 months at the top end. and that becomes support then you get that launch that a lot of people -- i think larry fink was calling a melt-up or something like that. that could be the ingredients for this thing taking off from here coming up, wall street turns sour on apple. now the most bearish in decades, are the best days behind the tech company transport sinking but one name is about to take off. later, tonight is the home run derby. so who better to step up to the plate and give us a home run stock than guy adami [leaf blower] you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out.

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get $400 back when you buy the new lg g8. call, visit or click today. welcome back apple dragging down the dow today getting a down grade as the tech giant stands at a crossroads transitioning from hardware to services josh with details from san francisco. >> reporter: the team at rosenblatt coming out with a big call on apple. downgraded the stock to a sell

sayingthe company faces fundamental deterioration over the next six to 12 months. that new iphone sales will disappoint that's rated the most since 2001 how do bulls respond wedbush takes the other side of this bet says that after conducting its own checks in asia, they are incrementally more positive on iphone demand. yes, overall smartphone demand is challenging, but they saw a slight uptick in their words out of apple suppliers needham second's the bullish call, adds apple to the conviction bye list. says it's transitioning -- buy list says it's transitioning from hardware to one based on subscriber and service growth. apple finishing in the red up more than 25% this year for investors, the question is what demand is like for the bread and butter iphone franchise and how continued u.s.-china trade tensions are impacting the company. the investors are going to have a better sense when apple next reports results on july 30th switching gears, there was also talk today on cnbc about steve

jobs walter isaac son on "squawk box" saying that jobs in moments of anger told him that tim cook was not a product person that's tough criticism, though cook has overseen the company's move into brand-new product categories like the watch, airpods, and services. after the exit of design chief johnny ive, two design veterans are going to be reporting to coo jeff williams who did lead the development of the watch back to you. >> all right thank you. josh lippon in san francisco let's trade this -- apple, tim? >> i just think that, first of all, there's nothing new that came out today with all due respect, as we like to say god bless their heart. i'm not coming after the analysts here. >> the service revenues are going to decline for the first time in four to six quarters >> i -- maybe that's new although i think a lot of people question -- dan's talk about this, that the service numbers was front loaded by replacement screens and things that are not necessarily a regular revenue stream what i would say is this is a company that's outperformed the s&p by 17% this year this is a company that tends to swing from overly -- the market

dynamics are overly e-buhlients and overly sick lake like -- cyclical it's not going to be good. you have to believe that services is the future of the company. and you have to believe in a services blended multiple that makes the entire multiple of the company closer to 20% which on a -- >> 20 times -- >> some -- sorry, around 20 times. thank you. >> karen >> i mean, along -- i'm lukewarm on it. i feel like the bearishness is out there, and i feel like it's sort of reflected in the stock i don't think that -- kudos to coming out, putting yourself out there and saying we're going out on a limb. >> the analyst price targets seemed like -- it was 150. >> without it being a sell >> without it being a sell >> but so i don't think it's -- i don't think there's a ton of bullishness priced in here so i'm staying long. even though i'm not wildly bullish on the market. i'm staying long >> yeah, i think what the

company often likes to point investors to the fact that their service, their business is growing at like a fortune 50 company's revenues you know what i mean it's growing off of a massive installed base the problem is, the installed base is not growing, and it may never really grow again. if you have a massive deceleration in the revenue of the services, you get to yourself and say, okay, you're saying best case scenario you see 20 times here's the stock that's trading 17.5 times if they go x growth in their services, this stock's going to be much lower. it just in because we know they're not going to be growing units any time soon. and then you're going to have to wait for that to happen. the story's intact it's still the -- they own the high end, they own the margin, they'll have a better -- a better margin blended rate it may be off a smaller installed base going forward >> i'm not saying anybody here, but people think that apple goes straight up over the last ten years. to a large extent, i guess you could say there's some truth there. then if you look, if you get granilar, this stock moves the ebbs and flows have been

significant especially over the last 18 months we've just gone from 170 beginning of june to 205 that's a pretty significant move so my point is if i think the broader market's can roll over, i have to believe that apple will, as well. if you look for a level, the 50% retracement of that june low and recent high comes in around $187 >> for more on what's next for the tech giant, go to cnbc.com i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money. here what else is coming up on "fast. heyday - >> transport, sinking back into correction the chart master says there's one name that's taking flight. and yes, that's a hint he'll tell us what has him so excited. plus, it's been home run after home run for guy adami's fach pitches in honor -- fast pitches in honor of the home run derby, he's stepping up to pitch the stock he thinks is about to hit it out of the park more after this. - stand up if you are first generation college student.

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welcome back to "fast money. transports falling back into correction territory for more, let's get to bob pisani on at the new york stock exchange bob? >> hello, melissa. good to see you as always. trants transports are 10% off the new highs, they hit that in september. the story of transports the last nine months is a story of sectors. first, airlines and railroads, mostly up but not all of them. and lon sticks and shippers -- logistics and shippers are underperforming. the problem is simple -- trade and tariffs and to a lesser extent, a global slowdown which of course is partly related to trade and tariffs. now, the leading shipping and logistics firms have gotten clobbered on this trade

uncertainty and have really not recovered to any appreciable extent since the concerns got serious back in october of last year if you look at fedex, you look at j.b. hunt, u.p.s., they're all down 15% to nearly 40% look at that in the case of fedex, since that september high airlines have been split with southwest and american down, but those are on boeing troubles, a specific issue others like jetblue or delta are mostly flat to slightly to the upside elsewhere, you contrast that with the u.s.-based railroads, that they recovered very quickly after that december drop so norfolk southern, kansas city southern, csx, union pacific, they're all up more than 20%, the share well off of their lows put it together and since transports hit their september high, they are down about 10%. that's the white line there, the dow jones industrials up nearly 3% back to you, melissa >> thank you bob pisani on the new york stock exchange guy, i know you fancy yourself a

dow enthusiast >> i was around when they -- >> came up with it >> what does it tell you when the transport index is so divided in performance when it comes on this subsectors >> i'm not trying to be glib, i think 50 years ago i told you more i don't think nearly today the -- the overall market is as reliant on the transports as they once were with that said, i don't think you can have ahealthy rally without both the transports and the russell, and right now you have neither it's just -- that's one more arrow in my bearish quiver >> if you're measuring -- bob did a great job of kind of breaking it down if you're measuring the transports purely as rails and -- and airplanes and things that move stuff around, you're probably missing that fedex is 10% of that index. some people might throw in boeing though i would make that an industrial. fedex for reasons that i think are company specific, and this is execution and operations, it's had a lot of trouble for the last three quarters. some of it's the economy a lot of it's the ability to

handle bottlenecks in their own infrastructure airlines, look -- i think very cheap relative to the asset class. and if you look at the rails, while pricing and actually rail turnover is down year over year, it's not a disaster. >> all right our next guest says there is one name in the transport space that's about to take off that's a hint. chart master carter worth is at the plasma to break it down. take it away >> yeah. delta is the subject of the day. good day for airlines in general. but delta is the big one, the important one. it is, of course, by assets and market cap the biggest airline in the world in any event, the setup for often a great breakout is the precondition of underperformance we can check off that box. meaning here's delta in 2016, '17, and '18 down 3% versus the s&p 500 up 10 meaning it underperformed. in '17, up 14 a lot but the market was up more it underperformed. then 2018 down more than the market so-called chronic underperformance, let's move forward. and then what we have now on a

more immediate basis is outperformance this is one week, three weeks, five weeks, shoerpt time frame yes, but the point is delta up three versus two up five versus four. up 14 versus nine. meaning you have day to daye momentum, week over we c'er week momentum and that happen lear leads to - that leads to something dynamics there is the period in question. you have the tripling, of course, of the s&p versus delta. we'll look at delta charts and go from there. so many ways to draw the lines that's fairly clear. you can call that what you want. but it is a reversal formation often known as a head and shoulders. it also, if you wanted, has this -- could be called a cup and handle either way, anyway, it gets resolved quite often like that another way to draw the lines -- same chart same time frame. which is a series of higher lows

working into the apex or the top of this ascending wedge. what often happens here is the same principle -- it's a setup for a breakout you can draw the lines that way anyway but it is -- it is a very good thing. and then finally, what you all were talking about which is dow theory transports in general, we know that all global equities peaked, still is, the all-country index here in january of 2016, especially in the u.s. we have this sequence where the transports are not making new highs. ultimately, that has to get resolved otherwise just as guy said, small cap, banks, other things, this divergence is a problem >> carter, why don't you come on over bring a chair over we've got a gummy stake in ready at the -- stake in ready for you at the end of the desk >> that's what we can offer. >> okay. >> either the transports can go up or the dow can come down. what's your guess?

>> well -- >> in order for that - >> my hunch is ultimately the divergence is -- do you remember when the s&p purportedly broke out in september, october? that was a bull trap what do we know, the financials didn't break out the industrials didn't break out. the materials never broke out. energy never broke out the new york stock exchange composite, there was such classic bifurcation, we have the same circumstance now. we're quote making new highs, but constituents, parts and parcels of the market and aggregates are not making new highs. that's what happens when things aren't quite as good as the headline would suggest the headline says, all-time highs in the s&p >> this is a bull trap again >> it looks identical to september/october. >> karen >> for delta which owns -- i love everything that came out of your month on that where do you think it can go do you see breaking through 60 what's the next stop >> 65 is a reasonable price objective. that doesn't have to be where it stops, but i would say let's say it higher 70 the path to 70 passes through 65 so that would be the point at

which i would either write calls or take some numbers >> carter, kind of break a tie there's people talking about let's go back to the s&p for a second you had the january, 2018, high. you had last year, then you just had -- >> i know which direction you're going to break - >> my question is -- >> keep going -- >> some people say there's flow such thing as a triple top it doesn't exist in technical analysis doesn't exist, and is it something -- >> we've been there many times, we've looked at that closely there are times in individual equities, there are times with currencies, commodities, doesn't matter whether it's the s&p. anything that's publicly traded that has a close or open, there are plenty of triple, quadruple, you can call it or stuck in a range and rather than bring out it fades and -- and loses its luster >> so let's, carter, talk about back to your airlines. it's trading share, trading stocks delta, stuck in a range basically since 2015 >> right >> after going from 10 to 50 in the previous three years, is this bullish or not? >> very, for delta >> yeah. >> if you think about the precondition, what you river to,

it's the move from 10 to 50. then the consolidated -- typically when a stock is consolidating a range like that after a strong advance, think of it as multiple pressure. it's getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. it's working into the moment where it finally is too cheap, and its earns which are coming -- earnings which are coming that often resolve the pattern >> thanks for coming by. >> thank you >> what happened to that snake >> we'll look -- >> come on coming up, the hottest club on wall street as the soaring unicorns push triple-digit returns since the public debuts. we'll tell you which could offer or enter vip status. put him in gotsche guy adami is warming up to pitch ape stock that he says could be a summer sizzler and is up 20% this year. that's the break

welcome back time for an instant replay back in february, guy stepped up to the plate and pitched numont. take a listen. >> the stock's been in the bear market i think it's about to turn if the broader market turns lower, i think gold does well. i think gold does well, numont mining will do well in a bad tape it's nem

>> since that call, numont -- newmont gold corps as it's known after merging has rallied 13%. what do you do now >> it will always be new mont mining to me, in one, melissa. two, gold's in a period of time the next weeks, sideways to slightly lower but the gold move isn't over so to answer your question, stay with newmont mining nem. >> all right tonight as you all know, marks a very special occasion for baseball the home run derby where eight of the sport's brightest stars will slug it out for $1 million. sadly, guy's not competing tonight. we thought we'd give him another shot at hitting it out of the park with a special home run derby pitch. guy, you're up over to the plasma >> yeah. a lot of -- be a lot of taters tonight, tim, right? >> lot of taters >> big plays big flies. >> -- people dialling nine it's an energy play. what's the symbol? it's dvn, deven energy.

why you say? three reasons. one, the most sophisticated hedge book maybe in the industry why is that important? well, you've seen the fluctuations in the price of oil over the last 18 months. they're probably taking advantages of it better than any other company out there. number two, this is a shale play basically the lowest cost production shale play out there, at least from what i can tell, and all the research that i've done and the last one, improving balance sheet. improving balance sheet, not a great balance sheet. still a lot of debt there. however, they have been selling assets, and that balance sheet continues to improve so for those three reasons, i like the name. the chart has been awful series of lower lows and lower highs. but if feels as if maybe, and i'm going to show the chart, maybe we put in a short-term bottom this will sort of show you what i'm talking about again. lower lows, lower highs. maybe finally we've sort of put it in an impasse here. maybe we're making that turn

back up to the 30s valuation is really not the reason to own it but the three reasons i gave and the fact that i think oil's going higher is. >> does anybody have questions for guy? >> i do. >> okay, tim >> guy, shale play are you worried about the oversupply that may be starting to come out of the u.s., but more importantly headline oil prices how sensitive is the company >> you're 100% right that is a huge concern you have to ask yourself, is it manifested in the way the stock has been trading over the last couple of years. i would say, yes i think a lot of that has been priced in. i might be wrong if we go sideways in oil the broader market installs, no reason to believe this won't turn to the downside i happen to think the nine tape oil stabilized this year, i think the stock will go higher >> anybody have another question for guy? >> i do. >> okay. >> deven, would it be in m&a, either as buyer, seller, maybe not with the balance sheet - >> that's a great question my sense is they're not going to

make any acquisitions. but you know, is it crazy to think that somebody out there looking for a low-cost shale producer in play, i don't think that devon's on anybody's radar screen you don't buy it for that reason but that could be the cherry on top. sort of the tail as we say in the business >> no more questions time to vote are you buying guy's pitch on devon energy, tim? >> i am a reluctant yes. >> reluctant yes [ applause ] >> and that is because i actually believe that the company is doing that interest cost expense reduction, about $150 million a year. guess what, i don't think it's going to get a lot better for energy stocks in the meantime. >> i share your relucktance. i think to want to buy devon you have to be bullish on oil. if you're not so bullish as i am not so, no >> yeah -- >> oh. >> this may surprise you, guy. i am not a buyer you said a few words that i think are really important there. you said oversupply of shale

and then you're question about m&a. from my recent history, what i can kind of get, when oil companies have been merging of late, it's not out of a position of strength. if we continue to have this massive oversupply of shale you may see temperatures need to merge, and those won't be positive i don't think for the equities and obviously it's correlad to crude, crudes looks like it's going to 50. if thisit goes to 50 this is go to 20. >> two nos, one reluctant yes. are you at home voting for it? we'll reveal the results later we have no meh entry so just do no the market is red hot with a handful of names of ipos of more than doubling public debuts for any of the names at risk of getting kick oedut of the 100 club more ahead

welcome back to "fast money. the ipo gold rush is the company is making their public debuts have made the splash this year we thought it was time to recognize the top performers by inducting them into the 100 club for stocks that have already doubled since the ipo. let's head to the lounge, we have beyond meat the winner 500%, zoom video, online fashion retailer revolve group

as of today crowd strike joining the elite group. are the stocks a hot trade or too hot to handle. tim? >> i think some are too hot. some are not i like crowd strike here i look at the customer base, it's -- you know, 63% fortune 100 companies. they have recurring revenue streams. it's a company that in the security space right now, i think companies are throwing as much money at the problem as they can for fear of just, you know, corporate fiduciary responsibility so i kind of like the story. and right now they stand alone right there in terms of publicly traded options outside of cisco, which i think is the best name >> yeah. i would throw zoom -- honestly, you could have said the exact same about zoom. i think zoom benefits from being in the public markets, more ctos at corporations get to see, oh, they start hearing about companies. >> they did the whole road show about zoom >> they did. and they're profitable still growing sales, 30%-plus sort of thing. i think it's a nascent market for what they're going after so to me, i'm not saying that this is a $24 billion market cap. i'm not saying you have to rush

to buy it. but it's down from 105 down to 90 if the market were to take off, these names are going to go ballistic again. they're going to have another leg. >> yeah. >> they're ballistic already crowd fund is -- the rate of loss, they're becoming more profitable for each dollar that's interesting something like beyond meat, i just -- it's hard to -- there's something obviously the valuation's gotten crazy but the dynamic of how little share, few shares there are, it just makes it untouchable. >> yeah. >> sometimes we wear hats. can i put my -- the trader shoot what we typically wear -- trader hat is what we typically wear. like the baseball hats on the weekend. >> the fedora. >> would you wear a fedora >> back in the day >> i think hat with flaps -- >> not the ear flaps >> what hat are you wearing -- >> the trader's cap. >> got it. >> you have a stock that's double, and you say to yourself, you know, if i sell half my position here, you're in the rest of it for free.

that's just math like that's an s.a.t. thing. so my advice would be trade the stock, don't let the stock trade you, melissa you like that? >> no matter what the stock is there's no stock there that you would say -- >> that's my trader cap. you have a double. get out of half and trade around you're in it for free. >> here's a couple more trader caps or fedora's or whatever guy wore in the '50s as dan said i think first of all what a lot of people are afraid to do is let their winners run and be long-term greedy that's something to think about. i realize with high multiple stocks that are new to the game, it's tough to really know where that is. the other side of all this is a markets context for all the stocks all-time highs, money is free. you're going to see these things do well. in a different market environment, get out of the way. it's just the way it's going to be >> all right coming up, the pepsi challenge. the beverage giant doubling the performance of rival coke this year one trader says there's a clear winner in this soda war. we've got the details. plus, let's get to a check on a kramer cam. there's jim talking about

constellation, talking to the ceo about his stake in canopy after the drama last week. that full interview is at the top of the hour. we are live at the nasdaq in times square you might take something for your heart... or joints. but do you take something for your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

welcome back to "fast money. it's been a sweet year for pepsi. the sugar water stock as dan calls it up by more than 20%, double digits this year. more than double it as arch rival, coca-cola, which hit a fresh all-time high. as pepsi gears up to report earnings before the bell tomorrow, options traders are making bets on whether the stock can stay on top of the pop trade. dan's at the plasma with the options action dan? >> yeah. like you said, you know, pepsi's been on fire, up about 20% this year they report their q2 tomorrow before the opening the options market is only implying about a 2% move in either direction and that is shy of its 3% average one-day move over the last four quarters one trade caught my eye. the largest in the name, it was a short dated call buyer, a call spread when the stock was 132.18 july 12th, this friday ex-prargz, 135, 137 call spread paying 37 cents, breaking even at 135.37. the trader can make up to 163 if the stock is 137 or higher

new highs for pepsi. a breakout let's go to the charts this is interesting. talking about carter with that kind of long base. this thing was in a very long base since the start of 2018 earlier this year, in april, it broke out to new highs it's been holding this uptrend that's been inplace since late december pretty constructive but obviously there's room back to 120 or so on a miss and a guide down but let's go to the ten-year chart of this thing. since the financial crisis lows. when you look at this, how orderly this uptrend has been the whole time, there's only been a couple of tests of it one of those came in december. and then this thing just rocketed up, broke out to new highs. off to the races here's the thing, this company's stock is trading expensive i know it's got nearly a 3% dividend yield, but it's -- expected to have an eps decline year over year this year with low single digits, sales growth. it's kind of priced to perfection this will be a really interesting early gauge for a lot of these defensive names, how they report and how the

stock reacts more. >> all right so let's play a little "would you rather" here facts are obvious. tim, i go to you since you've lefted in the sugar water -- invested in the sugar water sector >> i elicited dan's wrath and he made the sugar-water phrase about coca-cola last week. the valuation is closer to the long-term historical average than pepsi pepsi trades 24 times the next 12 months. coke is cheaper than that. coke has underperformed. i would rather own coke here just based upon i think there's more momentum for the brand. >> guy >> see, i would take the opposite side. and that's what makes markets. i mean, pepsi has beaten i think eps 18 of the last 20 quarters or something, revenue, 16 of the last 20 quarters sets up well into earnings valuations are about the same. let's not split hairs here i think pepsi has a more diverse brand with fritos which i happen to like, by the way. >> fritos itself as to some of the other products in the frito-lay portfolio. >> what about frito breath >> i eat them by myself when i'm watching the ball game, tim.

>> maybe you're by yourself for a reason >> of course fritos >> the only way to settle this dan, it's time to take the pepsi challenge. we've got two glasses. a glass of pepsi and a glass of coke with ice because you demanded ice so why don't you take a sip -- >> refined palate here, this is going to be easy i already know what that garbage is this is coca-cola right here, ladies and gentlemen >> wow >> bang. >> simple. >> i had one good point, i did not start the sugar-water thing. steve jobs, the late-great steve jobs when he recruited john skully from pepsi in the '80s to become the ceo, he said, you want to sell sugar water for rest of your life or do you want to change the world? >> the universe -- >> sorry >> all right whatever >> have a coke and a smile, people this one's good. >> karen, do you have a preference >> i agree with everything guy said which is the opposite of what tim said, with the exception of the frito-lay thing. i don't really care for --

>> the breath when you're eating them - >> the mcdonald's or burger king -- >> momentum -- >> burger king. >> stones or the who - >> this could go on forever and ever for more, check ouour llt fu show friday, 5:30 prn eastern time up next "final trades. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade join us for a walk? i'd love to, but my legs and feet are so tired and achy. walter, you need revitive ! it's the circulation booster! it really got me moving. i use my revitive every day!

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welcome back you know what guy adanny will be listening to as he watches the history tederby. whitney houston. more than 7 0% they would disagree - >> it's amusement. >> final trade time. >> if you look at macy's, you could take some glee from a 7% dividend yield for a company that i still think is getting their act slowly right even with secular headwinds, macy's. >> karen >> yes, you know, i'm not usually a trader, but i think boeing was interesting obviously bad news that they -- is it fly-a-deal i think changed to the airbus. stock wasn't down that much. i think it's bottomed out. >> dan >> yeah. i think pepsi will be an interesting name tomorrow to see how it reacts to that dollar

that's got stronger again, the issues macro-wise. >> guy >> if i'm a met fan when i'm not i'm worried about pete alonzo throwing that utah there >> come on, man. >> and devon >> that does it my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad cramerica. other people want to make friends, i want to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and make you money. call or tweet me @jimcramer. there is more to this business than watching the federal reserve and that's true with a day like today where the dow loses and th