i have to say i'm using it for baby food all the time. >> you just squeeze it out >> squeeze it out. mcdonald's franchisee say the company needs a better chicken sandwich to compete with chi chick-fil-a. >> they can't compete with chick-fil-a, don't try. thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" now. welcome to "closing bell," a historic day for stocks, the s&p crossed above 3,000 just below that level now, but looking for an all-time close all. all you need to know as an investor coming up with 59 minutes left of trade. >> let's get to what's driving the action higher in this final hour of trade. fed chair jay powell testimony pointing to a rate cut as soon as july. treasuriry yields are lower in response, so is the dollar small caps and transports are

weak in the session. joining us is josh brown welcome back. >> good to be here >> are you also in celebration mode after jay powell? >> i'm also in celebration mode. >> we got all but a promise of a rate cut i think in july. >> they're going to do it. i said earlier, he foamed the runway for what ithink the market knew he was going to do the thing is, i don't think it's necessary, but i also don't think it's harmful a 25 basis point rate cut most likely, the best example of something like this, that i can think of from recent history is 1995 you had a new all-time high in the stock market the day they did the cut, but it was a single cut. and a lot of the reason for that, they had done a surprise rate hike in 1994, which kind of crushed the bond market, people were shocked i think what the 1995 single cut was about was taking some of the pressure off from that, maybe

also like a mea culpa, we didn't need to do that that maybe that's what this is most like, and it would be likely we make a new stock market high. it would be ironic and people would look at that and laugh but i don't think it's the end of the world. >> let's get to jay powell's congressional testimony. there was one word that kept coming up throughout the morning rj uncertainties about the outlook. greater uncertainty. a bit of the uncertainty uncertainty around trade tensions uncertainty. the uncertainty, there could qu lot of uncertainty around trade policy that uncertainty, i think it would remove uncertainty it would be a lot of uncertainty. where uncertainty showing up

when businesses become uncertain, trade possibly and also uncertainty about global growth we're concerned about uncertainties and other factors. >> the man has a lot of uncertainties in the outlook we picked it not just to show -- fed speak is important it used to be patient we would count the number of times. it shows their posture now, emphasizing the risk, the uncertainties that would lead them to cut. >> i want to say one thing, the ludicrousness of the uncertainty. there is always uncertainty. the difference is sometimes participants exhibit uncertainties and sometimes they don't. how certain were things on september 10, 2001, how certain were things in the year 1999 everyone was certain it would be great. we've had uncertainty for ten

years and that's extended the cycle. we haven't had a market bubble because people have been pessimistic all the way up so you want uncertainty, it's not a negative he's citing foreign markets a lot in his commentary. he's not wrong, pmis in germany and whatever, here's the thing, in the history of the united states, we have never one time imported a recession from a foreign country, not even in the late 1990s when the ruble blew up and latin america blew up we didn't import a recession then, we're not going to import a recession now because automanufacturing numbers coming out of germany aren't what you would like them to be. that is not a great reason, in my view, to be like we have to be vigilant about recession. >> but in 2008, when the euro went into recession, so did the u.s. >> we caused it. the point is, the united states -- >> i think the trade factor --

>> the united states doesn't bring it in from afar. if we have a recession, it's home grown. >> what else did powell reveal today? steve leaseman has the takeaway. mike santolli has more and phil lebo is could have r covering two transportation stories. >> risks have intensified after the june meeting and many members believe that aadditional accommodation could be warranted if that uncertainty continued. we know there was a debate during the meeting about the arguments over a rate cut in the near term. some officials believed it could be warranted if it cushioned the economy from future shocks others felt it necessary to shore up expectations. we know the fed decided to hold its fire to wait for more

information. what we heard from jay powell today is that uncertainty did indeed persist back to you. let's bring in steve for more on today's testimony and how the market is reacting did he go farther than you expected in emphasizing the r k risks out there and hinting at a rate cut. >> think he went beyond hinting. remember when he was asking do these things bode for lower rates and he said yes. i think he went all the way. that's further than i thought. i thought the likely scenario would be powell clawing back a little bit of flexibility for the fed not to act if that was the thought he pushed him further down the road in terms of bringing them back in terms of the outlook for rates. the question now, does the fed go further than the july rate cut? i think that's where the market is concentrating its thinking on right now. sarah, you left out, there's the

possibility of rate cuts 73 for september, forget october. but 56% chance of a third rate cut come december, which is higher than it was before powell began speaking sarah, excellent job on the uncertainty. you left out one which is the star chart of the day. the trade policy uncertainty chart that made, i don't know, three or four references today this is a count of the headlines in the monetary report on friday, and we recreated so people could see it. this is a part that's animating the fed right now. the uncertainty is higher than it was last year. >> steve,i don't know if you heard the discussion earlier with josh, but regardless of whether or not the situation around the rest of the world has gotten worse in the last couple of weeks, do you think the fed chair is leaning on it as an excuse in a little more pronounced way than he has done before >> definitely. i think he definitely raised the

concern about the global economic weakness. and even was more downbeat about the u.s. economy he really just sort of nodded to the good things and stared in focus the bad things he was acsense waiting the negative i think is a better way to put it. even this idea, remember a couple months ago, inflationwa transitory, that's out the window now it's a problem the fed needs to address and likely through monetary policy at the end of this month. >> the major averages have hit all-time highs in the session today. let's send it to mike. >> that's the first dashboard which is millennials need attention, talking about 1000 point increments in the s&p. and lacking initiative nap time soon? volatility summer months we'll see how that goes from here now that we're past the first on day

of jay powell's testimony. and saving up for marriage, some cash m&a stuff millennials, if you want to go back to the first thousand point mark that was crossed by the s&p 500, you need a 22 year chart of the s&p. and that's what we have right here this was the first time we got to 1000, early february of '98 you see it was not an impediment, we powered past that until we got to the asian financial, russian financial y crisis in 1998 we first hit march of 2000, that was the peak of that market. you see the drop from there. this was 1500, again about 1550 or so in the peak of the 2007 bull market. so what you see that cap for seven, eight years and we didn't cross above to a new all-time high until 2013. here's 2014, this is when we first hit 2000

we're up 50% from there. i would point out when we did hit 2000, it marked an area we went sideways for quite a while, a year and a half, two years i did want to show, we didn't close above 3000 yet but this is a good marker how we stepped up this way wanted to show the rate of return from the s&p 500 from the different milestones the first time we hit 1,000 this is 1998. 7.2% total return analyzed here we go, below average long-term returns for 19 years from the march of 2000 high. if you bought the peak in the last bull market and saw the market get cut in half and you waited it out you got 7.8% return, that's not too bad then, of course, you bought 2000 when we hit it, up more than

10%, 11% annualized because you have a prominent milestone and a big index it doesn't give you a clue whether you're hitting a cap or going to blow through it guys. >> is that a lazy millennial theme you have going on today? >> what's this. >> is that a lazy millennial theme -- >> i hadn't thought about it i don't do generational warfare. >> let me say one thing about millennials, it's a lot of fun to make fun of them, they are better investors than their parents. the millennials who are investing are cost conscious, more likely to contribute to a 401(k) there are 73 million of them

coming into the workforce right now, more than boomers at the current moment they are good investors. >> are they long-term holders? >> they're doing the best they can. they have no choice. it's really, really cool to see that they are behaving in accordance with the way maybe their parents should have, because there's more education now. and the last thing i'll say, this is really important if you think about the millennial and their time horizon, they're going to live longer the other thing is, they invest in a more cost-effective way when their parents were their age, the '70s and '80s, it used to cost 5% to buy a stock. people are like there's no way they'll have the same returns, maybe not but it costs way less and maybe that balances out. you might not have as much upside with interest rates and how much the markets run but they're also not going to spend thousands and thousands of dollars on their portfolio the way their dads and moms might

be. >> mike, thank you for that. we are just below 3000 at the moment, it was crossed earlier in the session, 2992, see if we're closing above that the nasdaq is separately on set for its own record close let's get to bertha for that >> the usual suspects at the nasdaq, tech, tech, tech, chips. look at the big leaders, western digital. t mobile apple back above 200 we're getting quite a recovery rally today. we also have more than 150 new all-time highs including our parent company comcast microsoft continues to be one of those big juggernauts and this is a market cap weighted index so microsoft's $1 trillion carry a lot of weight. as health care is weak today, we have caredx, the transplant firm getting a boost, another high on

the executive order from the trump administration on kidney care switching to tesla trading higher today on a new report about ramping up construction at its california factory >> this was an employee email from the president of tesla and three important points he did say that a production increase is coming also they're making progress with their china plant but he gave no details in terms of timing or when we might see increased numbers in terms of production this is important for investors when you look at overall deliveries for tesla they have not changed between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles being delivered this year. that's why when you look at shares of tesla, it moved up about 2% today, certainly not the type of pop you might see had there been more details within the emails. tesla bulls, they're excited any time they see one of these leaks

emails portending good news. we want to ask you about the guidance from american airlines. >> this is raised guidance for q 2 we'll get the full numbers in a couple weeks it comes down to this, one improved unit revenues as well as margins on the profit side they're saying pretax profit going down about $185 million because they don't have the 737 max within the fleet. that's why american is saying they have cancelled more than 7,000 flights in the second quarter. most of that because they do not have the full complement of max airplanes they expected to fly tomorrow morning, the reason we're in atlanta, a first on cnbc interview, ed bastian chairman and ceo of delta. we're going to talk about the strong q 2 numbers and their outlook for the second half of this year. >> phil, thank you very much airlines are up today, josh,

but they've been pretty flat over the last few months >> it's been a tough sector, the transportation sector is tough it's tough to figure out what do airlines trade on? capacity has been good, pricing has been fine. the economy is great the consumer economy is on fire. so what -- like what even is the catalyst for the consumer airlines i don't know that i could figure out the answer i think a lot of traders ignore this industry group. and the transports entirely because so many of these charts were in no-man's land, doesn't seem to be a trend they can trade off. >> crude oil is up 4.25% today that used to be negative. >> they hedge and -- yeah, you're right it's tough to understand what is going to make one of them go up unless we're talking about m&a rumors that's what alaska trades on. still to come on "closing bell," scott minerd predict d a

downturn, we'll get his thoughts up next, virginia takes the crown as this year's top state for business we'll look at how amazon played into virginia's number one ranking. as we head to break, here's a check on the data tracker. wholesale rising, .4% in may sales of wholesalers were up .1%. missing expectations of a rise of3% . we're back on record high watch heading into the "closing bell." back after a quick break

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earlier today scott cohn revealed virginia as america's top state for business he joins us with a look at how virginia landed amazon's h2q and did notary je reject it. >> our decisions every year, and many small decisions are based on data. seeings as how we came to the same conclusion amazon did, we thought it would be a good idea to compare notes amazon's vp of public policy, one of the point people on the

h2q project said they knew they were offering a big prize. >> we knew it was a huge economic development project >> they didn't anticipate the attention it got. >> here's amazon one of the most important organizations in the country, $5 billion, 50,000 people in one place. you're surprised that got a little bit of attention. >> we were surprised by the number of locations. >> 238 bids from across the continent and a lot of hype. so amazon did what it knows best, crunched the numbers. >> we had lots of data, from external sources, data we gathered and data from the responses that the locations gave to us. >> on workforce, transportation, education. >> we knew it was going to be competitive. >> in crystal city, matthew kelly, saw amazon as a catalyst for his firm's plans to develop the millions of square feet of office space it owns. >> we were offering things they were looking for, in terms of

workforce, infrastructure, labor pool. >> it took a coordinated push by the company and state and local government. >> we said one of the ways we provide value is by investing in our human capital. >> virginia's bid was the only one that included a new college campus next door. >> what was unique about virginia was the commitment to developing the long-term talent pipeline and virginia is also a great place to do business. >> so they get through all of that analysis and they get to september, a year into the process and they realize, they can't come up with 25,000 people to hire in one place it's too much of a task for amazon so that's when they decided to split between virginia and new york when new york got strident in its opposition they said the decision was easy, nixed the new york plant and focussed on virginia by the way, one of the data sources they told us they used was america's top states for

business you can see the data that amazon looked at at topstates.com one more time here in the hour we'll look at states top improved we'll see you next hour, scott. 40 minutes to go before the closing bell dow, s&p and nasdaq all higher in celebration of jay powell the levels to watch, 2995.82 just below that for the nasdaq and we are above that tracking for a record close there after the break wall street firms weighing in on netflix as the company braces for an exodus of major titles. president trump signing an executive order on kidney health today and obamacare is facing a fresh challenge in court

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welcome back to "closing bell." time to get word on the street ubs downgrading deere to neutral, saying the stock reflects near term caution and weak demand in the next two quarters golden sacks initiate on air freights saying the sector is favorable long-term and the concerns about digital disrupters are overdone in the near term ever core raiand rosen blatt upgrading on netflix both are catch up upgrades they're bringing the current

price with neutral ratings on the stocks josh we spoke about this stock with you last time you were on. >> i was looking at this as a trade on a breakout, which has not happened i thought we'd see it yesterday i talked about a buy stop limit at the previous resistance, about 385 or so, i think if it gets above you will see the sellers disappear and buyers come in droves that i think will keep youout of the name until you get there. they're going to report earnings, no one is looking for an earnings increase, it's the revenue increase that matters more, 26% is the consensus neither the earnings or revenue expectation have moved in 30 days it's a stalemate, people are set what their expectations are. the negative, talking about losing "friends," the "stranger things" numbers were monster there's a fundamental push and pull, so focus on technicals is my message

wait for the breakout. >> alex sherman on nbc.com, how the old media companies are flexing their muscles now. pulls "the office," at&t pulls "friends." these are big hits presumably for netflix. >> they are and they help. i know people are still watching "breaking bad" on netflix, that's not their property. if you're a bull, the great news is when you see season 3 of "stranger things" come along so they broke every record they said 18 million households have watched all eight episodes, have gotten through the season. >> there's only eight you can bing it over a weekend. >> there's only three, four, five shows like "stranger things" and then a huge catalog of mediocre stuff, which i'm not sure it's "friends." once you got through your season of "house of cards". >> you're right. that's a power law that's a force of nature, not

anything that netflix can do anything about you're not going to have 50 amazing shows on one network because the consumer can only watch so many, me i can watch millions of hours. but you're not going to have a million hits the question is how much mileage do you get out of the hits you have and netflix has done an amazing job here and internationally capitalizing when they strike oil. i feel you want this in a breakout, you don't want to just sit in it. it's expensive, a high valuation stock. if it's not moving in the right direction, you're trader wait for the right direction. here are the three things driving the action, fed powell's testimony pointing to a july rate cut nasdaq on record to close at a record high. and small caps underperforming

and transports continue to be weak. time for a news update hi, sue. >> here's what's happening at this hour. labor secretary alex acosta praised the new case against jeffrey epstein and defended the role he played as prosecutor in reaching a plea deal that has been crediticized as too lenien. >> the goal is put epstein behind bars, ensure he registers as a sex offender, provide victims the means to seek restitution and put the public on notice. iranian president said britain will face repercussions over the seizure of an iranian tanker last week, it was detained saying it was breaching shipments to syria

an emergency call for donations after there were more than 450 fewer blood drives last week for the red cross it says that's 1,000 fewer donations. while all blood types are needed, there is an urgent need for type o that's the news. i'll send it back to you let's send it to mike for the second installment of the dashboard. mike >> lacking some initiative right now among economic and market players to embrace risk. look at what's called the animal spirits index. what's interesting is it's a blend of financial market and consumer and business and policy measures that are blended together that essentially try to give you a sense of the risk taking appetite within the economy. this is more than 50 years it's a subtle move down but we actually did move down to about .54 from about 1 in april. so we had a recent peak the cycle highs in april

we backed off from there this includes the vicks, economic policy, uncertainty index. it fits the general picture being put together here arguing for a fed rate cut it's the mood, it's risk takers not allocating capital for growth in the future and a general sense that policy is unsteady and that's matching up with how consumers and ceos say they feel. also make a point, the peak recently is well below that peak in the late '90s cycle which fits with everything you see right now. it's been a muted risk taking cycle this time around >> i'm looking forward to nap time, soon coming up next. >> soon. one of the two of us takes naps. >> we have 27 minutes -- fewer naps now >> who has time for a nap. >> we have got 27 minutes left to trade, the s&p is now 2992, just below the record all time

closing high level, nasdaq just above it >> a new chapter in the rivalry between the winklevoss twins and mark zuckerberg. we'll hear what the brothers said about facebook's push into crypto

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winklevoss twins were once enemies now they could become frenemies. >> the winklevoss brothers launched their own digital coin in 2018 while they were once adversary with mark zuckerberg, they don't see facebook's bet on cryptocurrencies as a threat, instead they see libra as an opportunity. >> we actually think it's an interesting trade. because libra as we know it is a basket it's tied to assets that are stable where the gemini dollar is a one-to-one peg we think there's a use case for both instruments they're not apples to apples and i think a bitcoin libra, trade pair or libra gemini

dollar could be interesting. they see bitcoin as gold 2.0 and have been running gemini which plans to expand internationally soon. >> any word on whether the partnership he eluded to is likely with facebook have they gotten a warm reception from their former foe? >> at this point we don't know if there are any talks taking place that would lead to a significant partnership between facebook and the winklevoss twins. but it's certainly something they may be open to. they also did talk about how it's not just facebook getting into cryptocurrencies, they' other silicone valley tech giants, like google, coming out with their own projects over the next two years >> if you were wondering if congress is going to regulate libra, it did come up in the powell testimony. >> it doesn't exist, what is it regulating it's not real. >> one representative got

confused. >> it's embarrassing. >> i think powell saying there were concerns about privacy and disruption was notable. >> i met those winklevoss twins at the peak of the bitcoin bull market in 2017 we were on stage together. i will reiterate what i told them, i wish one of them will grow a goatie or wear an eye patch so i know which is evil when i deal with them. i don't like the uncertainty before we decide whether or not it's bullish or bearish for a bitcoin, let's let it come out and see if people use it being gold 2.0 is nothing to be exciting about gold has been a terrible investment long term, worse than stocks, bonds, real estate, let's see if consumers have an interest in using this as a medium of transaction then i'll get bullish on it.

>> if the movie was accurate, i can't see them forming a partnership. >> money is on the line, though, people can become friends really fast maybe it's good for all of them. 20 minutes to go before the close. we are on record close watch for the s&p and nasdaq at this hour. president trump signing a new executive order on health care today details on which pharma stocks can lose on the news. reaction to jay powell's testimony with scott minerd, he'll join us for an exclusive interview.

pharma. president trump signing an executive order today to overhaul care for kidney disease saying today's action is one of many changes coming down the pike for health care >> with today's order my administration is taking one more vital step in a series of action to deliver great health care for the american people we've launched an initiative to lower the cost of prescription drugs, that's a big thing. we have very big moments coming up over the next week having to do with that i think we have some very big moments coming up shortly.

that will be something very special. >> health care stocks up today, still the worst performing group in the s&p for the year. for more let's bring in chris. implications for key stocks off this move today? >> yes i think as we saw dialysis companies see a selloff leading into the order i think that when we got into the weeds and saw what they proposed, it's going to take a lot longer than what was initially thought to get the change of behavior for home dialysis and increase the organ transplants which is why you're seeing the names recover today. >> which sub sector do you think is most threatened from potential political action >> i think it's almost everything in health care except for medical devices to be honest

with you, and life science tools right now. in managed care you have the threats from the fifth circuit which had a hearing yesterday on the district court ruling to strike down the affordable care act. you have the pharma industry with regulatory actions and the president hinting at my actions coming in the week you have hospitals having to worry about the affordable care act potentially going away so you need to look at the medical device and life science tool place. >> are you threatened by the uncertainty on these stocks? >> i'm threatened by many things one thing i would say is i feel like everything that chris mentioned is true and i would add to that pile, the democratic debates which will go on throughout the course of the year and we know where they stand on things like drug pricing. but the market is smart, so the

s&p spider xyl has above market dividend yield and is about to break out. the sector has been through held and back since last october when it peaked, made another attempt to break out when you get to that level you'll see stocks not necessarily pharma do well look at what's in xlv, you have medtronic, united health i'd rather buy the names and bigger picture regardless of what politicians are saying, the boomer generation will be spending more and more not just in the united states but around the world. >> the insurers, are they buy on this notion that medicare for all, putting the private insurance industry out of business is unrealistic. >> it is unrealistic certain names are a buy, cigna in the world, with heavy

exposure, not so much a medicaid or government sponsored plans make a lot of sense. united is really a diversified company. there might be other ones i might be hesitant on because they have increased exposure, like a san teen may make me cautious there are great opportunities in health care right now that are undervalued compared to the market we're encouraged there's a lot of stuff going on in d.c. policy wise but there's been a lot of bark and not actual bite when i comes to what's been implemented. >> i agree bill clinton ran on lower health care costs in 1992 so this is -- like if that's your reason for not being in these names then you never will be for the rest of your life. >> hillary clinton also. >> every candidate does it what's actually going to happen, chris is right. >> chris, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> we are on record close watch

for the s&p and nasdaq the s&p just short, the nasdaq is in record close territory. up next your last chance up next your last chance trade with josh. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade,ose td the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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welcome back

let's check in on individual market movers. levi falling today following mixed earnings after the bell last night it missed expectations and saw a 17% drop in its quarterly profit down 11.5% today cited costs working with celebrities such as justin timberlake and snoop dogg. >> it's almost as if people remembered, wait a minute, this had isn't a tech company, this is apparel and apparel is terrible >> still growing a lot of the analysts that were bullish came out and reiterated to buy. >> whole space, x-lulu tough space. >> i'm going to pitch oogle, alphabet, sorry. here's the deal, you look at the other fangs, almost every one of the charts looks better until now. google got back above its 200

day, actually, i think today or yesterday this stock is down 1.5% over the last one year. it's rare that you've had an opportunity to buy this stock without it having run with the other big name tech stocks there are reasons we all know, but at this .22 times forward earnings, breaking back above that 200 day is important. i would tell you this is a company that has a ton of cash, opportunities, they run a lot of businesses, we understand the problems with potential regulation about social networks and online activity et cetera, that's in this name. i would be a buyer right now stock bounced off 1,000 twice i'm asking you to take 11 to 13% risk here with a stop just below 1000, with potential to make as much as 20 to 30% should the stock get back to its all time high i like this trade from a risk reward transport. >> google for the last chance

trade. we have news alert another company going public >> that company considering going public, mcafee, getting off a phone with a source, saying mcafee is meeting with banks for plans for a potential listing which would take place likely towards the end of this year or early next year. they are owned by tpg as well as intel. no guarantee they'll choose an i.p.o. over selling the company or continuing under its current structure. they declined to comment. we are on record close watch for s&p and naz nasdaq under 7 minutes left to trade.

[leaf blower]

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and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. we've got four minutes left of trade time. the nasdaq is in record closing high territory let's trade to close with sean cruz what's the takeaway today, sean, do you think the market is certain it will get its rate cut and moving forward the fed will be there to support it come what may. >> that's the takeaway here. the entire move we saw play off,

july 5th after the jobs report, even when we saw the reverse, getting gold higher today, the dollar back off a little bit and some of the gross sectors like the nasdaq move higher, especially the semiconductors. the markets are pricing in the certainty of a rate cut in july but also 50 basis points by the end of september that may be 50 in july or it could be 25 in july and 25 more in september but you're start to see that get priced in a more dovish fed. let's go back to mike for his third dashboard complaining about millennials. >> not complaining, appreciating them nap time might be coming if you look at the vicks, held up into today over the powell testimony. down basically a full point today, 13 shows it's mild. take a look at the projection of what the volatility market might

look like over the next month or so, next several weeks by time slice. this is the nap time i'm talking about, basically volatility futures are suggesting perhaps things calm down, especially because earning season starts. look at this, that's the fed meeting, it's implying a little bit of potential for some fireworks to pop one way or the other. that makes sense as well until then maybe you have a stable market at the highs let's go to rick with the bond market report. >> all you need to do is look at the short end, two year note yields dropped almost 10 basis points as jay powell did not push back on what the market expecting. yesterday we were around 16 now 24 basis points, 10s minus 2s. the dollar index didn't fair well and something else, boones were auction, you know what investors get, zero, zero coupon boones

and they closed at minus 30, the highest yield in two weeks how's the nasdaq trading >> pretty strong, rick we saw the nasdaq go over 8200 today for a record high. looks to be on pace to close on record it's not the fang names. it's facebook, amazon, microsoft and apple that have been driving this they're what's driving it today, the heavy weights providing the biggest lifts. chip stocks seeing a strong recovery, up for 1% on the week and 4% on the day. 3000 for the s&p 500, not closing there. we could have used some help from the industrials caterpillar, boeing and shippers 3m and all the others to the down side. other than the fang names,

really it's been some names, visas and master cards moving up home depot a little bit of an outlier. there's the closing bell, 3,000 in today on the s&p, but not a close above 3000 if you're just joining us, good afternoon, welcome to "closing bell. >> mike santolli is with us. the nasdaq closing at an all time high. the s&p couldn't quite get there. earlier in the session hit 3000. they all hit fresh record intraday highs, the nasdaq the only one to close as a record.

the yields that rick was talking about, the long end rise a little bit, short end moved and moved the most, banks were the worst performing sector, even though you saw a slight steepening energy up 4% and dollar, of course, sliding a little bit but only 0.4% >> powell gave the market what it wants, continued hope of a rate cut josh brown still with us danielle fuse joining the conversation let's get to bertha for what drove the nasdaq. the usual suspects, the ones driving this year. the nasdaq is up over 1500 points this year thenasdaq 100 is as well the four stocks that have driven two thirds of those gains are facebook, microsoft, amazon, and apple. microsoft being the biggest contributor, contributing well

over 300 points to that gain as it has gone to new all-time highs where the others have lagged software has been the outperforming sector we have seen it really survive as chips have gotten beaten up, up 30% year-to-date, chips have recovered on hopes that we will see some kind of deal in terms of china trade they were strong today they are up about 28, 29% year-to-date and continue to power the move higher. the thing sitting things out, guys, and the one area that has been weak continues to be the small cap, the russell 2000 underperforming today and it remains in correction still over 10% from its highs and hasn't taken out an all-time high in quite a while. that's one thing to watch as we continue to see these big tech names move things forward. >> we'll talk about it

thank you. mike, significance, nasdaq record high, s&p hitting 3000 for the first time ever and some of these other milestones we've been going through. >> we were talking about how the take was sturdy, resilient, you had a mild pull back i think today you got incremental assurance from powell that the market didn't have it wrong or he was not going to take any opportunity to persuade the market. the question from here goes how much more juice is in this level of con fiction that, in fact, the fed is going to be help to the markets. in general you have a pretty strong trend you have to defer to it, i don't think people are overexcited yet, so you don't have to be too concerned right away right now it's through earnings and see what the earnings could be it's a market fully in that cut and more than that the fed is ready to support the markets no matter what going forward

>> i wouldn't say that with the s&p breaking out, nasdaq breaking out, bustle is still -- it's not giving me that conviction that we have the follow through, i think. we're neck deep in extra innings. i think we've been waiting for a pull back for so long, we had had a tiny one in december that everyone turned around and wishes was back. i don't think the fed was defending the markets in any way, shape or form i think they're looking at the global macro and looking at the fact there's slow downs in many big countries, china, india, the consumer is not happy and not buying so we're having issues globally that could affect what he's calling a stronger market here. >> what part of the fed's mandate is indian auto consumpti consumption? >> you've seen it manifest in the regional manufacturing of this country the manufacturing part of our economy is slowing.

>> good thing it's small. >> capital expenditure way down. >> i'll tell you the fastest way to get over the rustle divergence, the same way you get over the transport divergence, it's an industry story there are i hdiosyncrasies with how the rustle is structured there are reasons community banks aren't thriving right now. that should not be a signal to you that the breakout in the nasdaq and s&p 500 are somehow false or to be taken with a grain of salt. the breakouts we're seeing in big important global stocks like nike, disney, look at starbucks, the chips coming back, way, way more important than a huge bank index like the russell the best evidence of that, all you have to do is look at the s&p 500, equal weight index versus the market cap index. the equal weight s&p is keeping up with the market weighted cap

index and that's a better sign to me of the breadth of market strength than it is to look at the dow transports or small caps 600 or russell 2000. let's dive into jerome powell's testimony and in particular one word. >> uncertainties about the outlook. uncertainties about the outlooks uncertainty, uncertainty uncertainty around trade tensions uncertainty. the uncertainty. there could be quite a lot of uncertainty. uncertainty around trade policy. that uncertainty within broad uncertainty would remove uncertainty a lot of uncertainty where uncertainty is showing up when businesses become uncertain. and also uncertainty about global growth.

as you know we're concerned about uncertainties and other factors. chair powell if you're watching, that was with all due respect but that was the takeaway for investors that is some mystery, a strong job report, a trade truce between the u.s. and china and whether the fed would cut rates after the positives -- >> it's in the eye of the beholder or communicator, he wanted to emphasize that side of things if you listen to the whole span of what he had to say, it was almost fitting perfectly with the market's hope and presumption, which is we're going to get a rate cut that we don't acutely need because the u.s. consumer and job market is in bad shape. >> the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, maybe three. >> up to three. >> is that -- >> i don't think it necessarily follows from there you wait and see and see how the market reacts. you have to consider there to

be, two way risk if you're at the july 31st meeting and the nasdaq is at 8500 and the market took off to the upside, it doesn't mean you don't cut but when you do cut -- >> so much uncertainty we did $300 billion worth of i.p.o.s. >> exactly. >> how do we get past this uncertainty? >> what's your point, are you going to get the cut or not? >> he says we don't need it. >> my point is it's optics. >> is the market okay either way? >> this fed did not like the taste of when they freaked the market out in december, and they don't want to repeat it. and they've spoken too much on the side of a fed pivot to not give the market what it wants. >> that's why we're seeing i.p.o.s, they're rushing to the gate in case there is another december offering. we're seeing these deals because they're large enough and there's an appetite for it but when have

we not have uncertainty. >> i agree. >> what can disrupt the market >> a tweet can disrupt this market. >> so trade -- >> i'm sorry >> a trade-related tweet or anything >> a trade-related tweet, a market-related tweet not just tweets, but significant real things can disrupt this market. >> disrupt for how long? we've seen tweets send the market into a tiz superintendzyt there are no stocks lower now because of tweets sent disrupt for an hour, three days? 100% but what doesn't change is earnings have to deliver this quarter. powell can give you your 25 basis points we're still looking at a down earnings quarter and possibly a down q3 and that is what the market has to get through, for me, as much as the fed meeting. >> one reason powell has to keep saying uncertainty and point to

where policy or conditions are not really fitting with this idea we know where things are going, we can't go to congress and say we have this unusual structural situation where we're holding the fed fund's rate at 2.25 right now and the rest of the world doesn't have 2% yields anywhere out to 15, 20, 30 years. that's a weird thing to say, and that's kind of what you're doing. hoping it's a technical adjustment, steepen the yield curve and take that off people's recession radar. global outside the u.s., look how the markets are acting we might have bottomed in terms of growth outside the country. >> we could have an upside in guidance we could have some surprise in earnings in manufacturing or in industrials, for example that i think would really excite this market. >> do you buy the banks ahead of reporting next week? >> i belong some banks already,

would i buy them, possibly here and there i would. >> one issue that we didn't talk about today is the idea of fed independence and jay powell continued to assert his independence and when asked by the chair of the committee, what if trump called you tomorrow and said you're fired, he said i would say no, i intend to serve out my full term >> there's a reason you've seen gold move up $200 an ounce. >> that's why? >> yeah, 100%. people don't like the idea that there might be an executive branch versus federal reserve fight at some point later this year what we heard yesterday, it sounds like we might not have to have that fight. but absolutely this would become an issue that the senate would have to become involved in and we know what way the senate goes, at least until the next election i think people do not like the idea of that happening we don't think the rally in gold is about inflation, right.

so it is about the potential for instability. >> yeah. >> political instability. >> thank you both for joining us great to see you up next, gug enhiem partner's global chief investment officer joins us. we're waiting earnings this ndut from bed, bath and beyond fi o if the results can help turn around that stock which plunged 40% in the last three months i was on the fence about changing from a manual to an electric toothbrush. but my hygienist said going electric

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welcome back stocks rallying on wall street new hints that a fed rate cut is on the horizon looking at the biggest movers on the stock exchange here. >> not a close but we had a lot of help from energy stocks it was a big move, $60 oil here we're looking at big move in the last several days about time we got help from the energy stocks. remember from s&p 2000 to 3,000 it's been five years the biggest losers, few but they're all oil. they're all down 66%

the other group, retailers, macy's and gap this is in the last five years back to you. now fed chair jerome powell testified on the hill today, here's what he had to say about what's weighing on the economy. >> the overall economy is performing reasonably well, but we see what we called cross currents, principally trade developments and concerns over global growth. we see those and significant participants at the last meeting saw those as weighing on the outlook and calling for possibly more accommodative policy. >> will we see more rate cuts this year? joining us by phone, scott minerd scott, the question is not if at this point, it's how many rate cuts >> i think you're right, sarah i tell you, chairman powell has jumped into the rate cut pond

with both feet today i think obviously we're going to get one in july but i think we're going to get at least 75 basis points or three cuts before the end of the year the chairman has made it clear -- >> that's not consensus. >> when was i ever in the consens consensus? anyway the chairman has made it very clear that he wants to avoid a recession. and interestingly enough, following the chairman's testimony today, when we got the minutes, over 80% of the participants at the federal reserve, in the -- in their survey show that they see downside risk to their economic outlook. so the bottom line is, there's a growing consensus inside the federal reserve that recession risks are mounting, and the chairman has determined that he is going to try to do everything he can to avoid it. >> scott, do you think he's jumping into the rate cut pond

too aggressively >> you know, it raises a very interesting question here. and that is, is this the rate cut that precedes a recession or is this a rate cut like we got in 1998? and for those who don't remember, the federal reserve pre-emptively cut interest rates during the asian crisis and it set off a stock market boom. if this is a replay of 1998, which i think there's a fairly high possibility that it is, then we should expect to see the s&p at 3500 before it's finished so i think that perhaps the fed is being overly aggressive here. that in all likelihood, the economy is not doing as poorly as some people think and we're probably going to overshoot in terms of providing

too much stimulus at this phase. >> scott, you know in that 1998 example, in '98, s&p earnings collectively were down and yet the stock marketwas up a lot a you mentioned. but weren't global conditions that much tighter at the depths of that financial crisis, the mini financial crisis we had that fall? in other words it seems we're in better shape right now where the fed is going to do a cut. >> that's right. i think the fed providing stimulus now is running the risk we're going to overheat the economy. there is no doubt that there are some indicators that we are on a glide path toward recession. but if the fed is going to be as aggressive as i think they are, certainly for the near term it's going to inflate financial assets and probably allow the yield curve to steepen further from where we are. >> let's bring you down, scott

three rate cuts you're predicting this year, s&p goes to 3500 i think you said how far down does the ten year yield move and how weak does the dollar get >> we have fair downside left for the dollar to be honest with you, sarah, i don't have a particular number in mind today. history shows us when the fed starts cutting interest rates if we don't have a recession, we are probably very close to the bottom for the near term so i don't see much risk of the ten-year note getting below 2% for a sustained period of time and probably i would expect it to move closer to 2.5 as the fed continues to cut rates. >> you think the yield curve, the fed actions will resteepen the yield curve and everyone will be confident we're not facing a recession >> well, i think so, especially by virtue of how the chairman

communicated today you know, the -- the word uncertainty, uncertain, risk, these phrases kept coming up time and time again. he made it extremely clear that he is 100% in favor of taking pre-emptive action to avoid recession. and there's the old addage, don't fight the fed. so the question in my mind is, the risk to my forecast is will the chairman and the federal reserve stay committed to reducing rates as they advertised today, because i have to remind myself that back in december we were on a preset course to raise rates. so that was the last rate increase so the fed has a history of communicating messages and then reversing themselves in this current administration and the risk to my forecast is

that the fed suddenly wakes up and sees the economy is not as weak as it thinks and suddenly reverses course. so but i think we're going to, in the near term, have some very interesting opportunities in the market. i wanted to inject another sort of actor into this whole discussion about central banks and that is future potential christine lagarde, she held a town hall yesterday at the imf, first time back in the building, no longer managing director. according to sources who attended the town hall, she made it clear she was approached recently about this -- >> about the ecb job. >> about the ecb job she's doing it as a call of duty, did not campaign for it, did not want it, but sees europe at a critical juncture in terms of needing global support for some of its economic policy initiatives, which i think speaks to a lot of challenges

these central bankers were going to have. apparently it was emotional, she got a standing ovation said that david lipton was like her brother. it was a happy good-bye but her challenge is still ahead. >> christine lagarde was an interesting choice for the job and she has a challenging environment, because i'm not so sure what another 20 or 40 basis points and negative rates will do for europe at this point. so i think we're obviously on a path toward qe in europe i think christine lagarde is the type of person that will pull out all stops to make sure she holds the euro together and reflates the european economy. >> scott, thank you for phoning in. >> it's a pleasure. sarah, your sourcing there on lagarde i think is

fascinating. it's what you were saying last week or whenever the news broke. i still maintain the point, the ecb job is a much bigger job than the imf job maybe it's harder and plays into the idea she didn't particularly want the job, but much more powerful is ecb president than head of the imf i think. >> it raises questions as to what she can do at the ecb, what policy tools are left. >> the big thing for her that would be an enormous win and what president macron wants her backing on, and i think angela merkel does, too, can they deliver a fiscal union, the president their head of monetary policy is going to be involved with that's not the short-term challenge, which is turning around the cyclical slow down. >> political will. as opposed to implement blocks. >> for the most important

economic voice to say this is the way we should be going and get the political world behind it as well which is a five-year plan. >> that's something she can do. >> exactly. bed, bath and beyond earnings are out. >> if you look at the stock, it's up about 1% right now, it had been up as much as about 6%, starting to come back down a mixed bag on earnings. the eps numbers are a beat, it's 12 cents versus the 8 cents the street was looking for the revenues number basically in line but look at the comp sales, down 6.6% that is worse than analysts were forecasting in the past three months since the last quarterly earnings the stock is down 41%. activists got the ceo removed, put new board members in, so we have mary winston in place saying the company recognizes there needs to be a fundamental change in our approach but it is

still too early with the incoming management team to see the changes now. that is the short-term move on the stock. a lot more news on this company in the next three months back to you. thank you. mike up fractionally but the chart is unattractive. >> it's ugly people are betting it's in a terminal decline or shrink mode, only 1.5 billion market value, 1500 stores, still too many sto stores more than 40% of the shares are short -- >> what happened to the excitement around the hedge funds. >> they're on the board, looking to sell divisions that are not on board, but it doesn't seem to change the overall story this also, the first quarter, always the least important for a retailer, particular for bed, bath great you beat bottom line but the sales trend is a problem >> i maintain bye-bye baby.

>> it's being obscured by 1500 bed, bath and beyond stores that can't get any -- >> i think it's a cheap store. >> so's the stocks. >> that's been part of their problem. >> up next, we will break down the charts to see whether the near record level of cash volume this year will help support the this year will help support the market rally from here (in dutch) it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network according to america's biggest test. now with 5g evolution. the first step to 5g. more for your thing. that's our thing.

nasdaq closing at a record high today let's go back to mike. final dash board of the day. >> calling this saving up for marriage, this is companies doing that they have lots of access to the capital markets to raise debt. catch m&a, mergers and accusations, using cash to make a purchase has been a source of cash into investment accounts. yesterday red hats gets taken out. $34 billion in cash went from ibm into portfolios of people who own red hat. these rates are close to half a trillion dollars year to date, has basically come into the market this way. that's more than the annual rate of stock buy backs they talk about it might draw back after a record year last year, it has but this helps the markets with

investor flows into a retail basis. >> love the millennial theme today. time for an update >> hello here's what's happening at this hour president trump calling for sweeping changes in the medical care for millions of americans suffering from chronic kidney disease. his directive orders to treat people with early forms of kidney disease. >> roughly 100,000 americans are awaiting a kidney donation every day 10 of our fellow citizens die waiting we'll do everything we can to increase the supply. >> huge crowds jammed new york city streets to cheer on the winning u.s. world cup soccer team the parade ended at city hall where mayor bill de blasio presented the players with the keys to the city and the star player megan rapino

shared her message of love. >> this is my charge to everyone we have to be better we have to love more, hate less. we got to listen more, and talk less we got to know this is everybody's responsibility every single person here >> you are up to date. that's the news update this hour that was right in your backyard, guys. >> listen more and talk less from her >> that was amazing. >> that was a little rich. >> it was quite a celebration. it was right here. >> i know. i'm so jealous it was great, i'm sure >> still to come -- >> you should talk, willy. >> all right the battle for streaming content is heating up in the media world. ndut which company stand to be the big winners and lose ers straight ahead

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welcome back the streaming content wars are heating up again and it's traditional media and big tech that are now pulling out the big guns julia spoke to some of the biggest names in the space and joins us now julia? >> sarah, media mogul barry diller says he believes that

netflix and amazon have totally up ended the traditional media players. he tells me he thinks netflix is poised to stay on top, but disney plus has a chance at success. >> so now you have an arms race never existed before you have a complete blurring of television and movies. which only happened in the last couple of years. you have these two new entrants which are forced -- not only n consolidation on the old players but now forced them to make investments. >> sports rights are another, adam silver tells us that basketball games rights are in demands. he predicts tech giants will bid for the rights and then the international when they come up in six years. >> from a programming standpoint it's difficult to create hits. what you have in sports is a guaranteed audience.

i think one, especially in the case of a global sport like basketball and a young sport that can only grow. >> silver says he's expects the nba's audience and demand for that audience to grow thanks to legalized gambling as well as more activity with the likes of augmented reality. back to you. we'll discuss this further with john ford, the former president of discovery and president of john ford media good afternoon to you. thanks for joining us. how significant do you think it is, the likes of netflix losing the shows "friends," "the office" is that going to damage their subscribers? >> we have earthquakes on the mind given events in southern california this is not the big one but caused a shake, rattle and roll in the netflix board rooms we've known for a long time that the likes of warner, disney and others were going to pull back

and focus on their own streaming efforts. i think it's a budding rugby scrum is going to happen in everybody's living room and mobile devices with everybody competing for those scarce consumer dollars it's going to be an epic event when you see apple tv, disney plus, netflix, hbo, comcast, and all the big giants coming into the market along with amazon, which i think is a hybrid service because i think most of the people who subscribe, subscribe for the free home delivery nevertheless it's a service they're spend ago lot of money you have discovery announcing a partnership with bbc, so you have people coming in asking for dollars, away from ad supported tv and to consumer supported tv. the question i have is, how much will consumers be able to pay for this invasion into their

living room where you're no longer watching, quote, free tv with advertising but rather paying for it and paying quite substantially. >> there's that question there's also whether there are any more partnerships here with seismic shifts we've seen massive consolidation in the space, people are watching cbs viacom potentially anybody else that you see taking out targets? >> i've been saying for a long time that i think discovery, even after acquiring scrubs is an acquirer or target themselves i've been saying that i think cbs is a natural partner so maybe cbs viacom with discovery would be a potent thing. if you think about it, it gives them a broadcast station, sports, nonfiction, kids, a lot of different types of programming under one roof may give them leverage with cable affiliates and

retransmissions you think that could be a formidable lineup but you never know what john malone is going to do, because he's going to be pulling strings behind the scenes and he may have liberty global or charter communications coming in to buy more and he's already in lions gate and stars. so lots of opportunity for consolidation on the media landscape and i think we'll see more and more of it. >> on the question of how much opportunity it is for a third, fourth, fifth player in direct to streaming player out there, there's a lot of money paid into the bundle so what's the race especially if netflix is the incumbe incumbent, how many more do companies expect an individual or individual families to subscribe to. >> hbo has about 150 million subscribers worldwide, netflix with 140 million give or take, and a lot of those in the u.s.

i think netflix's revenues are $16 billion a year, and hbo is about $7 billion a year. hbo charges 8 they're going to go to more for hbo max netflix is up around 13, 14. i've seen estimates that say a consumer will be willing to pay, on average, say 40 to $50 a month for pay services in the home you throw in disney and say, you know, hbo max, netflix and amazon, and you're there, or more so i think there's going to be -- it's going to be a hard slot to see which of disney plus, apple tv, comcast, et cetera gets to that $7 billion a year mark that hbo is at, or the $16 billion a year that netflix has. and remember, netflix at $16 billion still isn't terribly profitable it's not a huge margin business yet because they're spending so much in programming. and now they can't acquire

"friends" and "the office" anymore they have to spend more. so i say two or three more in addition to the incumbents and the others have to consolidate with one another or accept a distant third place status. >> john, thanks for joining us. >> thank you up next we're serving up two food stories for you mcdonald's franchisees want the fast food giant to help them take on chick-fil-a and forget fake meat, and impossible is working on fake fish. a look at shares of bed, bath and beyond, uabp out 2.3% after rough reporting on the bottom line. "closing bell" will be right back

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mcdonald's franchise owners are calling for innovation to keep up with the competition in an email obtained by cnbc, the national owner's association called for mcdonald's to add a southern style chicken sandwich to its menu to better compete with chick-fil-a this as chick-fil-a becomes the third largest restaurant chain in the u.s this is not just the style of chicken sandwich but a premium version as well. >> it doesn't exist. they have great chicken mcnuggets and mcchicken but we

do not compete >> i do not know what that term of art means in the quick service restaurant area, besides price. unless it means it's a true white meat filet, i don't know >> mcdonald's coming out regularly with these special burgers for a period of time you don't often see it for special chicken sandwiches. >> it's not been one of those promotions although it is a good reminder that the franchisees indirectly run mcdonald's >> it's an amazing long paragraph that you should read about why chick-fil-a chicken sandwiches are superior. great scoop by our dot com team. the battle over meat replacementments has entered a new terrain, fake fish with a broth made from plants,

the company's goal to create replacements for every animal based food by 2035 which racises the question who want fake fish which turns out is more of an environmental play because according to the world economic forum, fish stocks are 90% depleted >> even farm fish is getting a bad rep. >> and people don't like bones. >> flavored broth. >> the less you know about what's in it, the better see how it tastes. >> also, isn't that fish, ancho vies >> yeah. good point. >> we'll see if that takes off. >> i can see it. still ahead, virginia taking first place in this year's top states list, but which state was most improved? we'll reveal after this short we'll reveal after this short break.

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the secret is out. earlier revealed virginia is america's top state for business in 2019 but what about the most improved scott cohn has a look at the state that jumped the most on this year's list >> reporter: it was the great experiment in competitiveness and it blew up in kansas says state, massive tax cuts pushed through by the gofr in 2012 were supposed to super charged the state's economy. instead they left the state with a bumper crop of problems. >> whether you looked at our infrastructure, our schools, our hedge it ca health care system, our foster care system, all across the state everything was hollowed out. >> facing a $280 million budget shortfall and cuts in everything from police protection to the

public schools, a bipartisan super majority in the legislature ended the experiment in 2017. now, state finances are back kansas is running a surplus, helping the state rise 16 spots in our economy category. kansas also improves in workforce, infrastructure, cost of business, business friendliness and access to capital. >> we are returning to our roots as a very progressive, thoughtful, forward-looking state. >> reporter: in edgerton, home of the state's fast-growing inland port, the mayor says there is a difference. >> i'd say that things as far as funding from the state level have improved, and i hope that continues. >> kansas came in this year number 19, up from number 35 last year. >> a lot more shuffling at the low end of the pack. if you go to cnbc.com to look at it, then the top end where it is a similar kind of five or six names that fight it out for the top. up next, your wall street look ahead the key events investors need on

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♪ nasdaq com pot i.t. closing at a record high today, up

three-quarters of a percent but dow, s&p and nasdaq hit intraday highs, hitting the 3,000 marks closing after comments from fed chair powell cemented the case for lowering interest rates. >> to wall street look ahead, the white house social media summit kicking off tomorrow. let's start with ylan mui with a preview of that. >> reporter: wilfred, it is a social media summit without social media companies instead, president trump is convening conservative critics of big tech who say the platforms are biassed against them outside groups like heritage and prager university will be attending along with lawmakers like senator marcia blackburn and congressman matt gaetz tomorrow there will be reputational risks for the companies, but you will hear calls for getting rid of legal protections they have from user posts. that would strike a blow to the companies' business models and has them really worried. back over to you. >> ylan, thank you

delta set to report results tomorrow phil lebeau here with a preview of that. phil. >> reporter: sarah, we know these will be strong numbers remember, delta raised guidance a week and a half ago, so the question tomorrow will be exactly how strong will the numbers be, especially on the revenue side remember, they had record june traffic. what is going on with china? recent comments from ceo ed bastion said there might be softness there in terms of what the people will be looking for tomorrow, it is the question of the second half of the year. not only for delta but for the airline industry guys, we're in atlanta because tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m. on "squawk box" you don't want to miss first with ed bastian, we will be talking to him, but more importantly how the airline and airline industry are positioned for the rest of the year. >> phil, thank you very much for that mike, back to the markets. record all-time close for the nasdaq do you think the market is extrapolating well past just the one rate cut and they think

powell, come what may, will cut when needed? >> the bond market is. it hasn't been dissuaded from the idea i don't think yet, all though the market is not getting that aggressive about it it is taking comfort in the fact it wasn't off sides when it came to at least july being a rate cut. question remains to me, we still have three weeks worth of numbers before the meeting tomorrow you're going to get the cpi. now, it would have to be some kind of wildly out-of-range number to change the story about july, but i do think it could inform down the road, whether in fact we are going to get a sequence of cuts and it is going to be the fed in a new mode or just kind of a precautionary one. >> are we now in a perfect scenario because, mike, a few months ago we were discussing the point of what would be the data that got us to having a rate cut, i.e. it will be bad either way, now it is great either way the only thing that's going to separate is incredibly good, positive data. >> it is true. the market essentially got what it was setting up for in a

sense, which is, you know, no pain to get the gain that being said, if you look at the parts of the market that haven't worked, they're the cyclical ones. they're the ones that really need the economy to quicken up a little bit globally and to get earnings inflicting higher and it is not happening. we have gone a long way with low bond yields and big growth stocks powering us. >> i would point out powell gets a lot of the credit today but you saw crude oil spike more than 4%, highest level since may. energy i think was among the best performing groups in the s&p 500. >> yes, some inventory numbers helped that. >> their inventory, yes, right it was against the fed. >> there was another factor. i don't know you can extrapolate and say, okay, it is going to be a trend, the laggards like energy are catching up but suddenly speaking you have seen some better action in some of the more cyclical stocks against a defensive. so it is interesting right now it is hard to envision what knocks the dominant narrative off course, and so the only thing to worry about is that everybody starts to believe

too much in the overbullish narrative. >> the other thing, mike, we haven't touched on today, the vix came back as well. >> yes. >> all things kind of came together pretty positively. >> more or less. volatility traders saying, okay, wesuccumb to july trading. earning season coming up, often stifles volatility, but things are lining up, you're right. >> it wasn't a full broad-based rally. transports fell again, i think half a percent, fourth day of a decline. russell 2000 gained 1.06 percent. >> on a day when the nasdaq hit an all-time high, 1700 advancing stocks, 1350 declining stocks. it was not by any means a stampede i think you could wake up tomorrow and say, wow, s&p 500 had it well working to get above 3,000, it couldn't hold the level. it is short-term stuff, not indicative of where it is going, but you can say it feels like a culmination of a move and we got what we wanted as opposed to the start of a new run. >> dollar as well only slightly

weaker, down about 0.3%. we will see if that continues. >> everybody is easing, too. >> everyone else is easing so you have a temporary reprieve, exactly, from a stronger dollar of late but only slightly. that does it for today's show. thank you for watching. >> have a good evening "fast money" begins right now. ♪ "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square i'm melissa leer. pete najarian, guy adami and steve weiss on the desk. the dean of evaluation will be here to tell you where to find value in the market. plus, tell lse tesla soaring asd e-mails has people running to stocks it was powell-palooza as the chairman gave wall street what it wanted, the dow soaring 300 points the s&p 500 doing the same, breaking through 3,000 five years after hitt