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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 26, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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sara, to you under armour has shown progress here is what to watch, margin. big source of improvement as they get inventories in line, lower promotion. wall street expects 46.4 watch out for new product releasements that have driven excitement and watch for international growth which has been a strong story on wall street the stock is up 50% so far this year. >> yes, absolutely that does it for "closing bell". >> have a good weekend everyone "fast money" begins right now. ♪ indeed, it does. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm tyler mathisen in tonight for melissa lee traders are dan nathan, steve grass grasso investors gorging on restaurant stocks today, sending brands to new all-time brands. the consumer is healthy and hungry
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one trader says get ready to pop the pepto, serious indigestion could be on the way. beyond meat serving up another record high. could anything stop this sizzling stock later on, it is game on as the fortnite world cup kicks off $30 million on the line and we put tim seymour to the test with some of the world's top players and we'll find out how he did. we begin with breaking news out of washington just moments ago president trump talking everything from tariffs to apple to the dollar to fed chairman powell, just moments ago kayla tausche was listening in live at the white house. >> it was a grab bag of topics for the president just days ahead of the first round of face-to-face negotiations since a truce with china at the g-20 president trumpinjected pessimism into the outcome listen >> china will probably say, let's wait, it is 14, 15 months
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until the election, let's see if one of these people that give the united states away, let's see if one of them could possibly get elected and i'll tell you what, when i win -- like almost immediately they're all going to sign deals. >> of course, that was the strategy that china employed going into the 2018 midterms, and the truce at the last g-20 was notched just a couple of weeks afterward. but it is unclear whether the president was saying that because of conversations he has had with his officials to say, don't expect anything big this time around. we know expectations have been tempered, but one thing the white house is not going to be doing ahead of those trade talks is devaluing the dollar. during a meeting this week, president trump rejected an idea floated by peter navarro, his trade advisor, to devalue the currency to introduce capital control s. in that same oval office meeting president trump said he likes that the u.s. economy is strong,
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the stock market is high, and that people want to move their capital into the united states, but he expressed some consternation about the many interest rate hikes that the federal reserve has put in place over the last two years and expressed some envy for what other central banks are doing around the world finally, on apple, he tweeted earlier today apple would not be getting any waivers from forthcoming tariffs if they were to be put into place on smartphones and apple products he said that maybe apple would build a factory in texas, that would be a good thing to do. he offered no more details on whether it was, in fact, in the works. he said he had a lot of repekt for trepekt -- respect for tim cook but didn't say whether the two discussed that tyler. >> it was as it is so often with president trump a wide-ranging discourse. kayla tausche. let's trade it, guys let's start with him seemingly lowering expectations on a trade deal with china.
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is that already in stock prices or is there a way to trade what he said there, casting a little bit of doubt that anything was imminent >> first of all, tyler, welcome to the program on friday. >> great to be here. thank you. >> you almost get the sense that the president oscillates between market is in a good enough place where he can take the political advantage of going hard on an agenda that politically is very, very popular what is interesting is to hear the whole dynamic about the dollar we are near almost two-year highs on the dollar. if you think about every other central bank around the world -- again, he started talking about those banks. who do you think they're following? they're following the federal reserve in terms of monetary policy globally set by the u.s. is making the dollar stronger. >> so the dollar is getting stronger, but come back to the china question for a minute. is that already in the prices? >> listen, i don't think so. when you think about it, we have the fed on wednesday that's going to be the primary focus between here and then, and i obviously think that rates moved in front of that
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the dollar has not moved as you might have expected, into a well-defined rate cut. but right after we get that fed commentary, then it is really all about trade. when you think about what he said, he actually said they're trying to wait it out. i would actually extrapolate it to tim cook, the ceo of -- >> tim apple, that's fine. >> no, but think about this. >> like that. >> if you are a company that spent decades creating a supply chain around cheap manufacturing in emerging markets like in china, the idea that you would change anything in a monumental way before you know what the landscape is, what the trade landscape, before there is a really broad -- so that's not happening. you know, the macbook pro they're talking about, they just moved production from texas to china. they're not going to turn it around. >> right, but what they're thinking about doing is moving it from china to india or vietnam. they're going to try to take 15% basically away from china. >> the point is what does that do
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>> di reversifies because they' too reliant on china trade fool me once, you know the old saying they don't want it to happen again. this is stereotypical trump, keeping his foot on the gas, putting pressure on everybody, apple, china, the fed. >> let's get back to tyler's question i think what is interesting here is dan alluded to the federal reserve -- it trumps the trade question five times over if you think about where we are right now, it is about interest rate policy. it is really a fed where 25 has certainly been given to us, arguably 50. that sets up the disappointment. and on a week when maybe the white house then gets more aggressive on their trade rhetoric, not a good combination. >> what did the fed say were the two key drivers of cutting rates? it wasn't exactly global growth. it was trade and lack of inflation. so he has a vested interest in keeping that dialogue and that narration consistent going into the fed. >> so let's talk a little bit about the fed. the fed is his whipping boy, right? >> for sure. >> and certainly this morning larry kudlow comes out on the
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white house lawn and says basically there have been seven interest rate hikes we had to deal with, it has been a headwind for us. it has been much harder than it would otherwise be to get a 2.1% gdp print in the face of those interest rate hikes. he said, with respect to mr. powell, not a fan. >> no, that's right. i think the president's going to continue to drop to the fed, but let's be clear as far as fed independence go. it is not new. presidents have been doing this to the fed for decades and decades. i think the fed is going to do what they're going to do regardless of what the president says i think they will focus on ecb, you have the race to the bottom. they have to keep pace unless they want the dollar to go crazy. they will point to inflation if you look at unit labor cost for example, productivity has gone up, unit labor costs have come down. typically it leads core inflation. i think you will see moving into the second half of the year is inflation continue to miss the fed's target and it gives him additional cover to cut. >> he seems envious in other
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parts of the world like europe, interest rates are lower than here he is envious of that. >> it is a problem. >> he wishes he had a different guy at the fed he wishes he had a different dollar to deal with. is there a trade here for us in this >> it is really a function of expected growth. that's what interest rates, you know, with the ten-year at 2%, which was 3% seven months ago, it is like we came out of -- we're much further along in the recovery since the financial crisis if you think about it in a lot of ways, the financial crisis in the u.s. was a rolling financial crisis it hit europe. some would say if you look at the banking sector there and the negative-yielding debt there, it is not out of the woods and everybody, the boogie man is obviously china. the fact of the matter is we're ten years out and doing better than everyone else that's why the dollar is where it is. why rates are where they are makes no sense. >> you said where is the trade, the trade is buy equities. if you have consistently low and lower rates going forward, you have to get pushed into risk assets or the equity markets, that's where you still go. >> agreed. you have the boj next week as
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well talk about a race to the bottom, these guys have arguably fighting since late 1980s, but certainly it has been a failure. but it is a function of the u.s. fed, let's be clear. the fact that greece trades five bips over u.s. treasuries is absurd you know, i think you have a case where, yes, equities continue to be the best plays. we have seen the stock market rally at a time when really didn't have a growth dynamic the rally that's taken place in the last two weeks, tyler, is one of significant breadth relative to what we have that's a place where pull-backs are shallow. >> in the minute or so we have left here, we have a very busy week ahead there's the fed obviously. we have been talking about there's the china talks over in shanghai we have been talking a little bit about that and there are -- there's an unemployment report that will come out on friday, and i believe it is next friday, apple's earnings there's a lot to chew over there. what do we think about apple >> well, i think if you -- again, the issues where apple could get thrown into trade war,
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it was a trade war stock at one point. it has shaken that out it. then it is a deregulation stock, i think it has found its way out of thang to come back to apple. i am sure dan will point out the critical reality overhand sets and it is the debate over services growth versus the overall and what is the multiple you want to put on the company if you are doing a blended multiple for a service business that is still not where it needs to be. >> to be clear, over the last year the volatility in apple stock for a trillion dollar company with peak trough declines of 20%, 30% here and there, it is about china and huawei too huawei is kicking china's butt in china, we know that. >> kicking apple. >> kicking apple's butt. they have four times the market share. 20% of apple sales come from china. tim cook has to play them both ways and he has to thread the needle here. it will be one that think apple is one of the most important pieces of this entire trade game. >> you think it is going higher? >> well, stay tuned to "options action" for that
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>> i like that. >> just quickly remember how important apple is it is no longer a growth stock if you are playing style versus value versus growth, it is an 8% weight in the value index. >> let's take a quick break. coming up, wall street is hungry, hungry hippos, folks investors have been gorging on fast food stocks but could serious hunger pains be coming their way? we will dig in plus a tale of two stocks, best of times and worst of times for these two names. we will break down today's big movers live fromim sare tesquin new york, much more "fast money" right after this ♪ this cnbc program is sponsored by zantac. eat your way, treat your way every day, visionaries are creating the future.
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that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. consumers were the hero. they had explosive economic growth, i guess better than 4% at an annual rate. that was white house economic adviser larry kudlow talking up the health of u.s. consumers this morning on cnbc, and that healthy consumer has, however, some rather unhealthy eating habits. just look at the returns on these fast food stocks. >> oh. >> they love their chipotle, their starbucks, dunkin', yum,
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mcdonald's all up double. that's a lovely graphic, isn't it >> it is fantastic. >> all good stuff. >> is this fast food feast going to continue or do we need some antacid? >> i think the tolerance level for valuation multiples in this space has become really the topic, because chipotle at one point was supposed to be giving you the growth it was a multiple before the food scare that somehow was rationalized by the way, they're supposed to be healthy who knows? really the starbucks, mcdonald's multiples are extraordinary. they traded in predictable valuation ranges for a long time what is different, one, it is a slower growth consistency story with a high div pay, but both of the companies are showing in core markets they are growing same-store sales comps mcdonald's same-store sales com up 5%. steve easterbrook has done a good job. >> the defining issue was dynamic yield, that purchase you have 70% of the revenues
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through drive throughs if you make it more efficient it drops the bottom line. i think you get a multiple expansion there and it goes on. >> one of the difference things that mcdonald's and starbucks are doing when you compare the two, you have smaller players coming in, uber eats doing the delivery thing, so mcdonald's is not moving into the space yet. starbucks made a deal with uber eats 6% of their revenues in china come from delivery, about zero in the u.s if they continue to push into that space, maybe incremental from delivery versus someone like mcdonald's who hasn't pushed into that space yet. >> it is amazing a super mature company like mcdonald's churns out these kinds of results the ceo has done an amazing job. >> they had to refresh the brand. for a long time they were chasing chipotle, and i think their digital dynamics, changing to grass-fed beef and kiosks where you have a digital choice and given millennials an opportunity. >> is there a pick among the
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guys for this group of stocks? is there one that is a standout to you >> i want to make one point. starbucks doubled in the last year. >> yeah. >> so it gained more than 50 presidential dolla dollars in market cap. it is astounding is it the sort of thing that accelerates or decelerates the stock has gone up in a straight line from 75 to 100 i have been wrong on this thing for about two months now surprising comps, so to me i have no favorites here buying stocks at dunl ouble in a year. >> what about dunkin' donuts >> pollo loco. >> all of these things were tech companies -- >> but here we have a valuation. >> i think you are looking at it the old school way, and you have to look at it a new way. these are growth stocks. it is a digital play they're no longer just fast food
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names, they're tech plays. >> totally different this time. >> throw in some munchkins, he will buy. >> tale of two stocks in today's session, google and 3m moving in opposite directions. let's start i guess with 3m. should we? the buzz kill there? >> i'll start there. i mean this is the story where the headline looks fantastic it was a b for a company that's been down trodden. the multiples is actually not terribly expensive, but relative to some of the peer group it is actually very expensive. they had a die vvesture. there's nothing in the guide to tell you to buy 3m. >> they talked about slowing buy back so it could be some head wind relating to 3m. we would be cautious on 3m for a while here. >> google, good quarter, best day in the market in something like four years. what do we think >> i will say this quickly listen, in the last four months this stock had two massive gaps, one from an all-time high when they reported q1 in late april,
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down 7.5% next day then it is under performing the maga names, and the broad market and you have a 10% gap i don't love to see 800, $900 billion companies have that poor visibility quarter to quarter. >> i think it is more of pa positioning issue where everyone shied away from google i don't know if it is on their part or on the investment community's part, where everyone had this sort of positioned wrong. we have seen it a number of times. we saw it in disney, in the overall markets, in the semis. i think that google has a further track ahead of it because the positioning was so negative based on everything, all of the regulation coming down the pike, i think that the investment community got it wrong. >> final thought on alphabet >> yeah. i mean i would push back on dan and say the reason you gapped up 8% is because you refreshed confidence in the name, not there's a lack of confidence i would agree that the last move was we don't know what is going on with the core business, but i think ruth porat and team came out and sent a message that actually means it continues to
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outperform. >> they did a great job on the call no reason the stock shouldn't be back at prior highs in a relatively stable market. >> you can read about the big moves on our website, cnbc.com coming up, one trader cooked up a great way to get in on beyond meat for cheap, cheap meat we will break down the sizzling opportunity. plus, a $30 million prize pool up for grabs in the fortnite world cup right now in new york. one of our traders got to squad up, as they say, with one of the teams. i'm tyler matheson, live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's mesqre"ft ne back after this quick break memory support brand.ed you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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and welcome back to "fast
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money" $30 million is what's on the line at the first-ever fortnite world cup underway at arthur ash stadium in queens, new york. our own tim seymour squadded up with some of the top players to see what it takes to be a world class competitor ♪ >> think you guys can make something happen with a rookie >> let's do it all right. ♪ >> i think we have to do this from square one. >> i hate to -- you know, it is going to be probably tedious for you guys >> all right now look straight down >> how do i look down? >> you're flying the wrong way oh, god, turn around. >> snipers. >> snipers! how do i hit the deck? >> shoot you. >> oh. >> what do i do now that i'm down >> i thrive on positive reinforcement, not negative, so just so you know. >> how do i shoot somebody >> you have to find a gun first. >> space. >> you can just walk down. >> whoops, i just shot
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something. >> did someone shoot you >> self-inflicted wound. i'm dancing. >> talking about it. look at those dance moves. >> wait. >> whew! victory. >> yes! >> you have never played better. tim, was your aftvatar wearn spanx? >> let's just say my avatar chose a new wave way to represent the world. these kids are unbelievable. to say i was a laughing stock, i'm sure when i left the room was comedy, but it was comedy of errors impressive what is going on. >> and the idea of video sports as a spectator sport was unthinkable to me a decade ago, but there's a lot of money in it now. >> first of all, $30 million
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price pool those three guys are the best players in the world ghost gaming is best team in the world and fortnite is a global sport. think about the world cup, and we are starting to hear about essentially the substitution effect or the decline in watching traditional sports because of this, the interactivity of battle royale games. it is not going away. >> i don't know if it is peak fortnite but you see game revenues are declining maybe it is because they need a new rendition or edition and it usually happens in the life cycle of each game you are starting to see revenues dip, the twitch viewers dip. >> my 13-year-old son and his posse were about fortnite a year or so ago. there is hoodie man. time for a -- are we go to our final trade now or around the horn is that what we're going to do. >> you're early here. >> quick phone on ea >> let's go back to february when apex announced the new numbers and the stock went from 80 to almost 110 in the straight line over the coming weeks, it
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is back down towards levels that people didn't expect if apex had the run. to me it is disappointing. you may be seeing what steve is saying, there's a little fatigue on that side. >> ea is up 13% year-to-date and take two has been the out performing, up 19% year-to-date. you have a bunch of the games that are sort of at peak and the biggest is "activation blizzard" which that one underperformed, only up 3%, but you have a new "call of duty modern warfare" and sometimes you see the ramp. >> steve, you sound like you are gaming >> let's go around the world. >> i'm sauntering over to mcdonald's that's the game i'm playing. no reason to get out. >> jeff. >> enterprise products partners is the name here if you look at equities all of the yield plays have been bid up mlp yields over 6%, fundamentals look better and institutions coming into the sector
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we like it. >> dan. >> stay tuned to apple we will tell you how to play it. >> microsoft broke out of the resistance level above 140 keep it on a short leash. >> been fun being with you guys. >> hard to get you guys out of urschel. that does it for "fast money". "options action" is up in two minutes so stick with us
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♪ oh, i love "higher love. my favorite song, one of my fari'son >> what, '87, tim? you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis.
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hi, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen live from nasdaq on this friday afternoon. we ran out of options, no lee, no wapner, no sullivan so they put me on "options action" we have a wild show for you ahead. here is what is coming up. apples, apples and more apples. >> apple is the last of the big tech stocks to report earnings next week. after a more than 20% run off the lows, you won't believe where dan sees it heading next he will layout the trade plus -- ♪ >> the dollar is surging

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