good morning it is 8:00 a.m. at virgin orbit headquarters in long beach, california it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live ♪ bicycle ♪ bicycle ♪ bicycle ♪ i want to ride my bicycle ♪ i want to ride my bicycle ♪ i want to ride my bike ♪ i want to ride my bicycle ♪ i want to ride it where i like ♪ ♪ you say black ♪ i say white ♪ you say shark >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt at post 9 of the new york stock exchange

obviously, a nice gain here as we rebound from yesterday's sell-off the dow is up 265. best day here since about the middle of june for the s&p all sectors higher for july, boosted by names like twitter and micron on the past month the fed's rate cut and earnings at qualcomm, though, top of mind for investors as we go into the first trading day of august. still, our next guest says, remain overweight in tech until the next bear market jim paulison joins us along with our own mike santoli good morning, guys good to see you. >> good morning, carl. >> jim, you've been pretty constructive here. obviously, you're not thrown by numbers like what ism gave us today. >> i actually think the data has by and large here been pretty good for the united states, carl you know, personal consumption, real personal consumption growth in the first six months of this year was up over 4% annualized pace it's just bizarre to be talking about a weak economy with one of the strongest six-month consumption periods of the

entire recovery overall. but there's enough weak data manufacturing, for sure. >> and enough to warrant the cut yesterday? >> well, i think the goal of the cut to me was not really to stimulate growth so much as it was to take fear out of the market and it didn't do that. i mean, it needed to take the curve inversion out. didn't do that i want needed to at least steepen the yield curve, which hasn't happened. it needed to restore some confidence in the future of the recovery, which hasn't really occurred and maybe worst of all, inflation expectations, rather than going up, after the cut, have come down so with the ten-year yield now below 2% this morning, it's just continuing to make the inversion worse. and it just keeps the market in the driver seat, almost begging for another rate cut, unfortunately. >> yeah, mike, the dow is up 271 points right now the read through here seems to be that we got some softer than

expected manufacturing data. so maybe perhaps that would incentivize the fed to cut again. is that why markets are higher today? and if so, is this a case of bad news becoming good news? >> it seems like we're kind of on the verge of something like that, morgan or at least, i think that there was a reassessment this morning that even though there was a lack of desired clarity from jay powell yesterday, the situation isn't that much different, right? the short rates are a quarter point lower. we have the same kind of deal where we have a 2% economy across the board, 2% growth, roughly, 2% treasury yields, almost 2% inflation. and guess what what worked in that environment all year big growth stocks. so it's sort of a back into growth and away from value and in terms of the bond market, i agree with jim the bond market is effectively saying to the fed, we can do this the easy way or the hard way. the easy way is, you guys could have laid out a path, a few

easing moves or the hard way, which is that we're going to keep compression on this curve, take longer term trends down and you're going to follow us anyway i think it's an inherently ambiguous situation and powell gave an ambiguous message because there are conflicting signals here >> jim, interesting dynamic showed up in qualcomm earnings last night, and that's this shadow of 5g, seeing a big slowdown in purchases of lge equipment. that's going to affect more than just qualcomm and i wonder if people have been factoring that into the numbers overall, because these wireless networks are a global phenomenon. >> i can't comment specifically on qualcomm, but jon, i think that i still really like the tech space you know, you've got an economy that's all recovery long have said growing around 2 to 2.5%. and there's just so much growth, even if they're slower there,

which is less cyclical and more sustainable wing, until the next recession. i think the leadership there that's been enforced probably continues until we do have another recession. now, it might ebb and flow on reports like this, but i think overall, if there's weakness in that space, i would be adding to it, although i would be adding more to the small cap s&p 600 tech names than i would to the 500 names. >> hey, mike, a little season seasonality here august is the weakest month for the past ten years, but largely because of what happened in '15, when we lost six and in '11, when we lost almost six. we lost the aaa rating here. i just wonder if you think we're headed for some choppy water >> the numbers suggest you might be due for some backing off of the market as you mentioned, you have a couple of years that swung, and in august of 2015, it was at the very end of the month. if nothing else, you are losing some seasonal tail winds here.

and i think you're looking at things like losses of momentum within the market, fewer new highs, and it just seems like there wasn't a very strong push beyond this 3,000 level in the s&p 5500 so i think it's time i also see some shorter term sentiment stuff getting a little bit stretched. it would make all the sense in the world to have another kind of pullback. but people should remember that we had a, i guess, a 6.5% pullback back in may and it had nothing to do with whether the fed made a mistake or wasn't too generous it was because the market was ready for something like that. we might have had another period right now where we have to decide if that's where we're at. >> so, jim, i guess looking at the market more broadly right now, if you think that growth is stronger and more resilient that the consensus seems to believe that it could pick up and strengthen more into the end of the year, where do you think they finish 2019 >> i think it's a fair amount higher yet

i think the bigger issue than the fed. the fed cut rates 25 basis points, is the amount of stimulus we've dumped on this system for the last six to nine months the real money supply has exploded since year end, the bond year, the ten-year yield is down 1.25 to 1.69% fiscal juice is up a percent more than it was in early 2018 and i think the issue that's going to determine the rest of this year is not going to be what the fed does or what trade negotiations do. it will be, will that stimulus work or will it not? we've got reasonable values. we've got very cautious sentiment. we've got positive financial liquidity growth and we get a pick up in the economy in earnings that calms recession fears, i think the upside here could be quite a bit more than people think i certainly wouldn't be surprised by 3300, 3,400 or something, rather than fall in the second half, maybe this thing finally catches fire to

the upside a little more, if, if the economy does respond to policy stimulus. if you're betting against that, you're betting against, you know, not just the fed, but you're betting against the fed, the treasury, bond vigilantes and the pboc and the eoj and the ecb. everyone has been adding support and if that fails, we're not going to have recession fears, we'll have depression fears. i think the good bet is it's going to work. >> just to be clear on that, though, jim, you're talking a p\e story, not an earnings story, i assume? >> both, i think, carl because i expect that the stimulus will revive the economy to some extent maybe there's elements of that already happening. and if it does, i think earnings pick up, as well so i think we get a little mixed bag going forward here >> all right, guys, good way to kick off the hour. appreciate that, jim always good to see you mike, we'll see you in a bit >> you too, carl well, "squawk alley" is your

home for ipos. canadian cannabis company sun dial growers going public at the nasdaq the ceo will join us after the break. and later, the ceo of enterprise cloud cpaomny d dynatrace will be with us right here as well we've got a big show straight ahead. don't go anywhere. xfinity mobile is a wireless network

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puzzles as catalysts while sigh mobile revenue rising more than 50% during the quarter joining us now, frank ivo, the ceo of zynga frank, good morning. >> good morning. >> so there used to be this relationship between smartphone sales and app activity smartphone sales are down, yet you surprised to the up side so what's the dynamic now and what drives usage? >> well, i think first off, you have to look at the global smartphone market. and there's explosive growth in emerging markets and new markets where high performance in expensive devices are going. so you're starting to see audiences pop up in parts of the world where there hasn't been markets before so, in the west, smart devices are largely replacement business in many cases. but you're still seeing explosive growth in asia and a company like zynga, we make games that provide entertainment for the global market and one other aspect that you're seeing is people are spending

more times playing games they're spending more time in their games, they're playing more games so you're seeing engagement levels reach record highs. >> so is that where you're seeing the most growth in those markets where you have lower cost, and yet more powerful an detroit devices than in the past? >> well, we're seeing a lot of growth in the west and in parts of europe on an detroit, certainly at zynga our games, empires and puzzles and merge dragons performed very well in those markets. but overall, the ios market is still very robust for apps the majority of the revenue that the app store generate comes from games and so you're still seeing very strong growth in a mobile gaming market that's very large this year, there is about 2.4 billion people playing mobile games globally and that's just not slowing down it's continuing to grow. >> frank, when i think about zynga ten years ago, i think about farmville that everybody was playing on deskstop, via facebook certainly, it's come a long way

over the past ten years. there's been a turnaround strategy that has been implemented that you've overseen for the last couple of years that's now playing out in earnings results when you look out over the next decade, especially with the rise of esports, the proliferation of all of these different types of streaming services, what does the industry look like to you and how do you continue to engage users >> i think one of the things that's really exciting about the gaming business is it reinvents itself all the time, especially the mobile ecosystem there are profound technology shifts coming into the ecosystem that's going to continue to drive growth for many, many years. and i think it starts with 5g infrastructure, you know, if you start to look around the 2020 time frame, you're going to get to be very high performance networks, where we're going to be able to move a lot of content very quickly and you're going to see a lot of very high-performance game experiences being possible that combined with very smart streaming technologies, it's going to lead to a lot of disruption and innovation in how we distribute games. you're going to be able to build

games that will be able to be play right off the advertisement you see. you might not be able to go down to the store to download it. there'll be a lot less user friction in addition to that, you're seeing cross-platform play really become a thing with games like "fortnite" and pubg, where people on playstations and pcs and phones are all playing together so as the market comes -- >> how do you take advantage of that >> youbuild intellectual properties -- >> from our perspective, we do crossword board games and things like that, too or do you reach into some other medium besides because you become very mobile focused. >> well, we're very mobile focused, because that's the largest market out there right now and if you look at the growth rates on console and pc, they're a lot less than mobile but if you can build a game like csr racing is peesa potential platform we have it starts with the game

experience and it starts with something that's fun to play across multiple platforms. killer apps are what make platforms happen and that's been the industhistof the industry so when you think about cross-platform play, it wasn't until "fortnite" established itself as a killer app that it established cross-platform play. so zynga is looking for that opportunity for the brands that we have. we have harry potter, "star wars," farmville, a long history of brands and partners that we believe will appeal to that audience >> hey, frank, when you first started out, obviously, facebook was a huge tailwind. i wonder if you were to construct a model from scratch today, if you would ride that train in quite the same way? >> i think what we have to do at zynga is be platform agnostic. we have to look at where the audiences are, where we can make great game experiences and how we bring those two things together so as you look out into the market place, being held to one platform only can be very risky. because if there's a platform transition and you get it wrong,

you end up going out in the wilderness and having to get turned around. from our perspective, we want to be constantly looking at new platforms and new places to reach audiences. i think a good example of that is in this last quarter, we launched a game on snapchat's new gaming platform. so we'll be experimenting with game experiences on pc, on mobile, on chat clients, opening up new markets like this quarter, we launched empires and puzzles into korean japan for the first time and self-published it. we'll be very accurate and flexible and nimble to make sure that when there's a platform transition like facebook to mobile, that we don't get caught out. >> gotcha. well, frank gibeau, ceo of zy a zynga, thanks for being with us. that two-year chart especially looks like the inverse of some of the gaming competitors like activision, blizzard, and ea very interesting thanks for being with us >> thank you very much a big hour of "squawk alley" still ahead. virgin orbit's ceo dan hart joins us later this hour w u25potsus doisp 4 in

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european markets are going to close seema mody, what's the story on markets? >> here's the story, jon with the exception of the uk, we are seeing gains across europe it's a combination of strong earnings from standard charter and rising expectations that the european central bank will follow the fed in cutting rates in september meantime, the bank of england held its monetary policy meeting today, where it left rates unchanged at 0.75% but it did warn of the risks related to the uk, leaving the eu without a deal and the negative impact of rising global tensions the boe cutting its growth forecast to 1.3%, from its initial forecast of 1.5% now, when asked whether gary cohn, the former chief economic adviser to president trump was right to reportedly say that a no-deal brexit would be preferable to end the economic uncertainty, carney replying, nope, he's wrong we are seeing a notable reaction in global currencies today the pound is at a fresh two and

a half-year low. the euro and even the chinese yuan falling against the u.s. dollar carl, sending it back to you >> seema, thank you very much. it is the first trading day of august we're watching the averages here dow is up 270. we did get an open on dynatrace. price is at 16, opens at 25, up 56%. we're back in a minute s. $4.95. delivery drones or the latest phones. $4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade.

welcome back, everyone

i'm sue herrera. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. a car, a bus, and three motorcycles laden with explosives targeted a police station in aidan, yemen, kill g ing at least 11 and injuring 29 more four suicide bombers were involved in that attack. charred remains of the attackers' vehicles were seen at the sight. the father of u.s. teenager finnegan lee elder who has been detained in italy for his suspected involvement in the fatal stabbing of an italian police officer left the prison where his son was being held elder is in custody alongside his former high school classmate. darrell juvenile group is recalling 24,000 infant sleepers due to safety concerns associated with incline sleep products the recall involves the eddie bauer slumber and soothe bassinet and the disney baby doze and dream bassinet. they were sold between november of 2014 and february of 2017 and there will not be a

woodstock music concert to mark the 50th anniversary a series of misfortunes and obstacles have derailed plans for the massive concert this summer maybe next year. that's the news update this hour back downtown to you guys on "squawk alley. morgan, back to you. >> sue herrera, thank you. >> mm-hmm. well, i just want to take a look at shares of dynatrace, just opened for trade here at the new york stock exchange. up 57% after pricing at $16 a share. we're going to be talking to the ceo in just a few moments, so stay tuned for that. meantime, call it the race to space. richard branson has virgin galactic, but also another virgin spin-off, virgin orbit, which may be a few weeks away for provide iing launches joining us now, virgin orbit's president and ceo, dan hart, who's live at the company's california factory, where they are currently working on six new rockets. dan, thanks for joining us

today. >> well, good morning. it's great to be here. >> let's talk a little bit about that rocket behind you 70 feet tall or long, i guess i should say, called launcher one. what is it going to be capable of doing >> well, launcher one is geared towards putting up a whole new generation of satellites satellites have gotten smaller and the capability that you can put into a small package is incredible, just like we see in smartphones. so launcher one will go up on the wing on a 747 and put about 300 kilograms of payload into low earth orbit, which will serve a whole bunch of customers from communications to earth resources to science >> yeah, this so-called small launch service market really seems to have come out of nowhere in the last couple of years, but is already burgeoning, more than 100 companies estimated to be focused on this specific part of

the rocket launch business how is virgin orbit different than what else is out there? >> well, we're differentiated in a few ways number one, of course, we're air launched so we have a very innovative approach to launch and since the beginning of the space age, the idea of launching and operating like an aircraft has been the holy grail for launch so we do that with an aircraft so we have huge flexibility. we're able to get speed and altitude with an airplane, a 747, and it simplifies the rocket and gives us incredible flexibility, so we can operate when our customers need to and get them where they need to get to >> how many customers have already signed on with you >> we have about a dozen contracts currently. most of them are with commercial companies. we also have contracts with nasa and the department of defense. so really covering the whole range. >> one of the questions i get

and it was just raised with me again this morning is when we're talking about something like rockets and particularly small rockets, which is this new and emerging quloue ining area of t what does it mean to the average american who's watching this new commercial space race unfold, how is it going to affect their lives? >> you know, satellites are affected our lives gradually through the years, to where now we experience the effect of them, although a lot of people aren't aware i mean, we navigate using satellites we communicate using satellites. the information we get about our environment and as we go forward, about our businesses, about resources, will have better communication across mobile devices, aircraft, ships, the internet of things all of these business ideas are percolating, and what's happened is the cost of satellites has come down substantially, and so

now flocks of new business ideas are popping up, because it no longer takes billions of dollars to develop satellites. it can be done at a fraction of that >> now, your sister company, virgin galactic has been getting a lot of attention lately, given the fact that it's poised to go public before the end of the year, in this non-traditional manner, through this merger with social capital the fact that it trades here at the new york stock exchange. what are your plans for virgin orbit? would you go public when the time is right? >> you know, we're focused right now, of course, getting the first flight and ramping up production we've been fortunate in having the strong backing of virgin group and mubotola as our investors and the personal guidance of richard branson. you know, as we were looking forward, we are talking to some investors, there's been a lot of interest as we've been demonstrating the hardware and

the system quite publicly and there's a lot of interest in space generally. goldman sachs and morgan stanley both predict a space economy of over $1 trillion in the next 15 to 20 years. so there's a lot of interest, a lot of people are coming and asking, how can they participate? >> well, dan, we are looking forward to seeing that first test launch to orbit in the coming weeks or coming months. and we appreciate you joining us today. dan hart, the ceo of virgin orbit. >> great to be here. thanks and have a great morning. >> and an ipo here at the new york stock exchange. cloud enterprise company dynatrace just making its debuts shares now trading still above 25 bucks a share after pricing at $16 that's up more than 58%. joining us here at post 9 is dynatrace ceo, john van siclen first on cnbc, congratulations

good to have you >> thank you very much >> so this app performance management in the enterprise, very competitive space seems especially important now that we're in this hybrid cloud and multi-cloud environment. people are trying to manage performance across a whole lot of different platforms >> exactly you know, software is now sort of leading the world as a lot of folks know it's how we bank, how we shop, how we do just about everything. and east applicatithese applica gotten much more complex over the last five years as they've moved to cloud platforms >> tell me about the sales and marketing motion then? because i remember how it used to be kind of pre-cloud, but now it's confusing, because sometimes people are buying within an aws or azure environment. sometimes the traditional re-seller market is really powering that. sometimes it's the company itself so what's the most quickly accelerating sales channel for

you? >> well, we've always built the company around a direct sales approach our products are used by enterprises, enterprises want to connect directly with the company to build these products. so we've always gone to market really, you know, that way and it's served us very well it makes it a very predictable business and a very strategic, you know, platform for these enterprises. >> how much is the cloud environment maturing we talk a lot about, obviously, amazon being ahead, azure being a strong challenger. but now you've got google, you know, thomas currian over there is making a case google knows a lot and they're arguing they still have is a disruptive chance to get in it do you see that? >> we run across all of these platforms and then some. >> so you can see what's working, right >> what's happening now is that the cloud is moving from sort of the early days, where people would put applications in the cloud to where they really are

taking their entire data center and shifting it to the cloud and that's what's driving these web scale multi-cloud environments that we do so well in >> so is it mature or does google have a shot to really gain significant share >> it's still early days it's still early days. there's a lot of room to go in this marketplace you think you have 50 years of data center that's shifting to the cloud in the next 10, and we are early days a lot of room to go and a lot of changes, i'm sure, in front of us >> is your exposure to larger companies versus small >> it is we target the global 15,000 companies, enterprise companies, and we expect, you know, talk to the cio, cto, and the executive level that are driving this shift, their organizations, digital transformation projects, and that's our focus >> and are there differences between the acceleration in the

u.s. versus europe or asia >> not really. the movement to the cloud and this whole move to software is a global phenomenon. every enterprise around the world is moving and moving fast. >> it's interesting, because we focus a lot, especially lately on business spending, business investment, you know, ceo confidence right now you're seeing some signs of weakness, including here in the u.s. around that but when i hear you put some of these stats out, it sounds like this shift to cloud is going to continue to be this secular growth phenomenon. >> we believe it is. the spend in the data center, the traditional data center is declining quickly and the move is over to the cloud it's going to redefine how businesses work in the future. it's the -- it is the new revenue streams, the new connective tissue with customers and providing a whole new environment. and we have, you know, customers -- i'll give you a quick example, a caribbean

cruise, one of our customers, is reinventing the travel experience for millennials and they're doing it all through software on their ships. a little wristband interacts with software on ship and on shore to transform the experience >> i imagine you've got a pretty granular look at the types of applications that customers overall are running, right >> we do >> so i'm hearing from folks like ibm, that there's a bit of a shift over the past succession months or more toward productivity versus growth in what customers are demanding are you seeing that in apps, as well >> what we're seeing is really still a continued focus on growth you know, new revenue streams, new opportunities, maybe taking an existing core application environment and rebuilding it to be cloud native. it's -- that's the shift that we see. still growth, still a tack market, still competitive

advantage for most companies that are pushing forward aggressively >> how do you keep it all secure >> how do you keep it all secure >> so there's a couple of different parts of the cloud world. we're on the performance side. there is ay side son helping customers optimize and make sure that every journey across all their software is optimized. >> do you expect to see m&a within this particular area of enterprise software? because there's a lot of little companies. >> well, this market is very large. we estimate it's about $18 billion. others have the estimates in the $20 billion. there's plenty of room for a company like us to grow and actually probably multiple companies to grow in this space. >> are you going to grow by acquiring other companies in the space? >> we feel very secure and happy with our organic innovation. we've been able to reinvent the business several times now

it's a very dynamic space, this application world. so, organic innovation is our thrust going forward >> and finally, you know, on a macro level,people hear about lack of business investment, lack of corporate confidence why is that so invisible in the cloud business >> the cloud is so much more efficient and economical for companies that as there's any kind of disruption anywhere in their markets or whatever, they're going to lean towards applications and the things that really drive connective tissue with their customers, you know, their market places that create more automation and more information that they gather when they go through digital channels >> all right, john van siclen, ceo of dynatrace that just began trading here at the new york stock exchange, up 58% thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. thank you very much. well, it is the first trading day of the month july's top performers, two tech names. twitter leading the s&p up more

than 20% in july and micron, leading the nasdaq up more than 16% we're back in a moment read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪

a couple of big earnings movers to get to this morning. qualcomm and shopify, both reported earnings in recent hours. qualcomm last night, shopify this morning start with qualcomm. interesting dynamic here, because they're so different qualcomm missed on revenues, beat on eps, and issued some

tepid guidance a couple of main issues there. one, in china, a lot of consumers are shifting toward huawei phones. huawei is not paying qualcomm, so that's bad for qualcomm another thing is a lull in the overall wireless business haud of 5g. and this is one that qualcomm didn't see coming until this report a lot of oems, a lot of companies not coming out with a whole lot of new phones at the end of this year, instead investing in 5g, expecting that to ramp quickly in 2020. and then there is shopify. this is such an interesting company to me. its market cap getting up toward $40 billion. it's been just on a crazy growth teefr several years. what it does, it's an arms dealer for ecommerce retailers that don't want to bow to amazon it allows independent retailers to set up their own websites, automate certain functions kiley cosmetics is one of its

customers. so is sephora. skpr it's so interesting, because not only did shopify beat, it raised and it's continuing to sort of gain this share, this premium share in offering this service to retailers who are not quite getting steam rolled by this ecommerce giant. now, in amazon of course, another thing about these two companies, qualcomm really getting affected by a lot of china trends. shopify, largely insulated from those, because it's operating outside of those ecosystems. and you can see in how those stocks are moving just how different the markets are. >> yeah. it's amazing shopify year-to-date, that chart is up 150% it really speaks to this incredible continued ongoing growth we are seeing in ecommerce, as well and i guess what you could call -- we talk about the amazon effect a lot this is almost the un-amazon effect, playing out in the stock. >> and i look at stocks that have strong moves over the past 12 months. because year-to-date, when we had that christmas eve dip, so

everybody looks okay year-to-date shopify on my list is the number three biggest mover, up 153 plus percent over 12 months but it's got a $38 billion market cap all the others that have moved big are much smaller yeah, well, definitely, earnings season will continue. we'll continue to bring those movers as we get them. getting a check on the markets more broadly right now, session highs, dow is up 304 points, more than 1% the s&p is also up 1.1%. adg y t s up 1.6% for the firs trindaof august. we're back in a moment here, it all starts with a simple...

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so come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. i'm afraid that that is the reality of the situation when the fed or any other central bank talks about stimulus these days, it's not to stimulate growth the effect of 25 basis points is like tasing an inert body. it's not causing any growth to be stimulated. >> that was prospective trump fed nominee judy shelton to our own rick santelli last hour. speaking of rick, let's get the santelli exchange. rick >> good morning, carl. you know, after that interview with dr. judy shelton, i received lots of feedback and much of the feedback was somewhat as follows. don't necessarily agree with dr. judy shelton certainly knows her subject matter and defends her stance

and what most of these were referring to is the notion that what jay powell and company was trying to tell us in a press conference doesn't seem to jive with what many investors think the fed's actual mission was, will be in the future. and i'll explain if you look at the globe right now, dollar is the reserve currency but it's the reserve currency at a time where after the crisis, it's still in high demand and the high demand usage is mainly to fund various financial issues and structures, okay let's make it simple there's a lot of loans out there denominated in dollars dr. judy shelton brought that up to procure dollars and swaps, meaning if you want to convert your euro to a dollar, your pound to a dollar, your yen to the dollar in the forward markets, it's pricey and it's been pricey. what that means is, is that we get these unintended consequences, where the fed's easing, lower interest rates,

all things being equal, look overseas to what the ecb does. they lower their interest rates, they're in negative territory, their currency is on the soft side but the difference here is how many dollars are needed globally, "a," and "b," this notion that investors think the ecb will be more covert in this game you can call it monetary policy. many call hitting to move your currency lower in the end, that's the aftermath of yesterday if we take it a step farther, jay powell didn't really mention many of those issues, but he did talk about that a global issue of this nature, meaning trade relationships and slowing global economies is something unique. and they're kind of feeling their way around that isn't so far from the reality investors have, except for it's missing a piece and that piece is is that inflation most likely in growth, most likely, as dr. judy said, which dovetails with many of the

investors and sources i talked to isn't going to make a tangible difference. but this really is an economic squirmish, just like we have a trade squirmish with other central banks' policies become very tsunamiish in their nature. and this central bank and maybe some of the nature this bank wants to get ahead of that maybe it's better to implement tariffs and keep monetary policy cleaner. i suspect that will be an ongoing discussion morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. let's get over to scott wapner for a look at what's coming up on the "halftime report." >> dow up 300, down 300. did jay powell mess up the message and what does it mean for the markets? we'll ask richard fisher and a double upgrade for a retail stock and pete najarian has a stock that could move

based on options action. that's coming up at noon jon, we're ten away, see you then. now plenty of earnings movers to get to at the nasdaq >> that's helping to see an overall recovery we're seeing in terms of sectors with biotech leading the charge biotech was the worst performer in july. today we're getting a boost in that sector, in parts because of earnings vertex pharma beating on the top and bottom line. western digital was an interesting mover. it was shy on the top line and bottom line, the management message that things are improving there in terms of future demand is being reserved positively and kla corp, the chipmaker at an all-time high the mega caps are back in. yesterday following that fed announcement we saw the energy

zap out of it. apple was the only one that survived the fray. apple this morning, though, not at $1 trillion, having reduced some share count, it's still at around 990 billion, just 990 billion give or take a few billion. back over to you >> all right bertha, thank you very much. virtually all of the selloff related to the fed has been bought dow up 300 all three indices back within 1% of record highs as the ten-year is at 1.95 ckn mont the flexible class schedules allow me to run my catering business and be a mom and parent. breakthrough at snhu.edu.

markets are surging after that drop following the fed presser yesterday. joining us on the phone is vice chairman of blackstone's wealth solutions group, byron wien. great to talk to you >> always good to be with you. >> is this action in equities today reflecting the weak ism, the weak construction spending, hopes that in fact this will not be one and done? >> no. well, my feeling is that it will be one and done. my position, i think i stated it

on the program earlier, is that the fed shouldn't reduce rates the economy is doing well. the mandated of the fed is clear. it's responsible for keeping employment full and we have full employment and for keeping inflation low. we have low inflation. so there was no reason for the fed to cut rates, and they did and the market reaction yesterday was a mistake. powell did the right thing by doing as little as possible. >> we're just a stone's throw from taking out the lowest yield since trump took office. >> yeah. my feeling is that, you know, the ten-year is -- the yield is

too low. you know, the reason for it is all the liquidity that's been produced around the world in the last decade. in 2008 the combined balance sheet of the banks was $3 trillion, now it's $18 trillion so they're looking for a place to high, what better place to hide than the ten-year treasury. so the demand for protection is causing the ten-year yield to drop below 2%. >> you don't think the bond market is signaling something that the equity market has been slow to catch on to the idea that global growth is slowing and there's reasons to be concerned? >> no. i really think it's liquidity driving rates low. i do know they're slowing, i'm aware they're slowing around the

world, but the u.s. economy is still okay i think we're not going to have a recession until 2021 at the earliest >> byron, in light of the fact that we're doing better here than the rest of the world, what do you make of the argument circulating out there that we have to cut because other countries are cutting? >> i don't think it's a race to the bottom i think that's poor economic thinking i think we should do what's right for our economy. we shouldn't do -- take action that reflects monetary policy or economic behavior around the world. >> we've had a couple nights of debates on the dshgszems side some saying there's no one that could be a trump slayer. at what point does policy risk from the election creep into

equities >> i think it already has. my view is that trump -- i think you're right, there is not a trump player out there so the market assumes that trump will have a second term. the market believes that trump is good for the market the market also believes that a democratic victory would convert washington from business friendly, business unfriendly. that would be negative if there were a trump slayer out there, or if any of the three progressives were to emerge as a prominent candidate, if oneof them, it would win, i think the market would interpret that negatively >> certainly echoing some comments others have made on our air in recent days we'll have to watch that more and more closely byron, thanks. if i don't talk to you tomorrow, have a good weekend.

>> same to you always good to be on your program. >> that's byron wien we'll have to start bracing for the jobs number tomorrow if the ism employment component means anything, it will be tough to see growth in manufacturing jobs tomorrow. estimates around 140 it's time for the judge. let's get to the half. >> carl, thank you very much i'm scott wapner front and center, the day after what jerome powell's message to the markets means to your money and the record setting rally it's 12:00 noon, this is the halftime report. the rate cut is out of the way. what's the setup for stocks now? your second half adjustment is straight ahead wall street now looking to september. will the fed cut again why investors may need to rein in expectations. restoration hardware rallying on a double upgrade what's driving the call? and what it's signaling about the consumer.

>> the investment committee is