if you thought it was all about interest rates and the fed, today was a wake-up call certainly the fed was pointing to trade tensions as one of the reasons it did what it did yesterday. i suppose if there's a silver lining there, the trade tensions are still there, it might mean more rate cuts are on the way. >> by the way, the jobs report tomorrow morning thanks for watching. >> "closing bell" right now. good afternoon welcome to "the closing bell." stocks plunging interday this brings consumer stocks into the bargain. nike down, near the bottom of the dow, seeing a 600-point swing. >> welcome, everyone, to the final hour of trade. what is driving the action stocks plunging after president trump set a new 10% tariff will be placed on the remaining $300 billion worth of goods that come into this country from china starting september 1st

weak manufacturing data raising hopes for more fed easing and the ten-year yield falling well below 2% for the first time since early july coming up later, big exclusive interview with the former vice chairman of the federal reserve, don kohn we'll ask him how the trade war escalation could impact the fed's next move. joining us is barbara duran from capital partners barbara, do you make any moves on this surprise tweet this afternoon from the president >> no, no. i think we've seen this before and it doesn't make it any less real or impactful. 10% will see what goods are impacted i think a lot of that is in certain sectors and stocks already whether it's the industrials, the manufacturer. we have to wait and see. >> we know what sectors are impacted this is cell phones, laptops, tvs, baby toys. all those who testified, please don't put tariffs on us, that's

what it is apparel. >> the rest of the country i think it's not going to change the basic economy and what's going on in terms of the consumer and wages and growth. we'll see what it does in terms of inflation you get these tariffs slapped on, the manufacturers or the resellers try to absorb the cost and not pass it on to the consumer we'll see. >> we mentioned the turnaround in equity but ten-year down. oil prices plunging down 7.3% following the close that have market perhaps most importantly of all, the chinese yuan, meant to be a managed, slightly fixed currency, down 0.8%. that's a huge interday move for them shy of that level it's about 6.96% for an intraday move, that's massive and is something the president could look at if he wanted to and say they're feeling the pain more than us. our equities are down but to see that size of a move.

>> they have been hurt more through this entire tariff tit for tat. >> if that takes off, it could be interesting >> it will be interesting if they step in to defend it. >> it looks like they have already. a big slide. let's get more on this big story on the day of escalation of china trade concerns eamon javers, bob pisani >> reporter: administration official tells me the tweet thread that moved the market earlier today was not exactly a spontaneous affair there were a number of officials in the room with the president while he was composing that tweet. i'm told steven mnuchin along with the acting steve of staff, navarro, the trade adviser and larry kudlow, were among the officials who were in the room with the president even as he was composing that tweet this is the part of the tweet that got everybody's attention announcing the president intends to move forward on september 1st

with what he calls a small additional tariff of 10% on the remaining $300 billion of goods and products coming from china into the united states that tweet was carefully gone over by all of those officials during the course of that meeting, i am told, and then the president issued the tweet which caught all of us in the financial markets by surprise. it followed an 11:30 a.m. meeting in which they briefed on what had gone on in shanghai we're about to see the president again at 3:30 this afternoon,about a half hour's time the president will depart the white house on marine one. we expect he will stop and talk to reporters as he leaves and we might get a chance to get a question in to him about why he did this, why now, and why just this 10% as opposed to going all the way to 25% as he's done in the past a lot of different questions we'll try to get in a half hour's time, will. >> eamon, what are your sources telling you about the timing that delegation just got back

from china so that's one obvious reason for the timing. also coming the day after a rate cut. >> reporter: yeah, that's right. sources here not telling me anything about the impact of a rate cut that may have had something to do with it they're just not saying that had anything to do with it they're saying that 11:30 meeting was the key this morning. mnuchin walked the president through what happened in shanghai after that the president had all those officials around him as he crafted the wording of the tweet. the president laying out a case before making this tariff threat, why he was doing it and to say in there xi jinping is his friend and not delivering on stopping the imports of fentanyl into the united states

>> you would think it's safe to say puts pressure on the chinese and powell, too. eamon, thank you we are near session lows here on the market the dow down 241 quite a swing interday bob pisani has more on reaction. bob? >> sara, about 500 points on the dow. essentially we are back to where we were in the beginning of july all that apparel from china coming in, who will pay the higher cost, will retailers pass it on? best buy said back in march higher tariffs would mean higher costs for retailers. we had a notable effect on this. machinery stocks, you see c caterpill caterpillar, deere, big chemical stock, material space like olin,

lyondell down. auto, a lot of parts manufacturers, higher costs for them as well you see aptiv, bottom line the two issues that move the stock market the most this year, the direction of interest rates and trade and tariffs, very much in the news in the last 24 hours. not in a way that is positive for the overall markets. guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you. for more on this trade war escalation, jake parker, senior vice president of the u.s./china business counsel he helps represent u.s. companies including apple, gm, jpmorgan and walmart and china policy discussions also with us is mike ryan, america's chief investment officer. gentlemen, good afternoon to both of you. jake, first of all, do you have any heads-up about this and how are your members reacting? >> i think the initial reaction of our members is the uncertainty that is causes and i think our companies are immediately beginning to consider how the chinese government will retaliate and

what the implications will be in china. >> what's the expectation on that >> we've seen threats from the chinese government so far whether it's the unreliable entity list which has not been implemented or released or additional tariffs on rare earth mineral exports. these are the types of actions china has threatened and not yet enforced so what their next steps will be and whether or not they'll decide to continue negotiations or if they need to step and break back for a while. >> what about for goods sold to u.s. consumers that have come to china, do you expect a 10% price hike or will it be somewhere closer to zero and the companies look to take it on themselves? >> the tariff impact will not be immediate as we've seen in past rounds it takes a while to metriculate. we'll see a rise as companies prepare for the potential of these tariffs to come into effect companies will also try to share some of the costs with their suppliers, take a hit on their margin

and if china's currency devalues there are implications to consider before we think how the costs will be passed on to consumers. consumers will suffer. >> so, mike, if you look at some of these moves, bob showed sharp moves in consumer discretionary stocks would you be a seller on this news or is this an overreaction? >> i do think, first of all, in the short term it is an overreaction there will be impact from this as jay mentioned this is the part, this is the part of the tariffs that has a bigger impact because these are the things that are less easily replaceable, will have a bigger impact in terms of consumer spending it will have a direct effect on the costs for consumers. our view is this will play out over a period of time. periods before where there have been negotiations. i do think this is part of

keeping pressure on china. it's not a coincidence this coincides with the return of representative lighthizer and secretary mnuchin from negotiations with china. i do think this is to keep pressure on. it's not going to throw the economy into recession what will companies do in terms of passing it on to consumer versus how much will come out of the earnings side. >> even if this -- mike, even if this does continue to worsen, we see a sell-off in equities, we're seeing a move in bond yields do equities remain the place to be in a relative sense >> i think there's another element here maybe we alluded to and we'll have to see how it plays out over the course of the next couple of months. does it make it more likely the

fed could follow through with additional rate cuts we saw the fed deliver 25 basis points as you saw yesterday. a bit of a replacement to the market they were hoping for a bit more. the global economy which already is in a weak state the fed may react to that by additional rate cuts which could come as early as the meeting >> we'll leave it there. jake and mike, thank you both for joining us anything that stands out to you, that you can use the sell-off to pick up. >> i would wait. my view even before we had this afternoon news was that we probably had a cap on the market, at least in the short term the fed cut was already in the markets. the signal will not do anything anytime soon, maybe september or october. it could be depending on the data i think this is an excuse now to take profits

i would wait a little bit and let the dust settle. there will be good buying opportunities. i would not change i would still be looking at consumer discretionary but with a domestic focus, the costcos of the world, sniffing around technology >> after the break we'll speak with dan niles about the new round of tariffs and how it will impact the tech sector >> and donald kohn and how the trade war could play into the fed next decision. as we head to break a check on our data tracker the ism missed estimates by half a point and the worst in years the july ihs market manufacturing pmi fell to its lowest level since september 2009 dow is down 260 points it was up more than 300 before the tweet announcing new

tariffs. oh, wow. you two are going to have such a great trip. yeah, have fun! thanks to you, we will. aw, stop. this is why voya helps reach today's goals... ...all while helping you to and through retirement. um, you guys are just going for a week, right? yeah! that's right. can you help with these? oh... um, we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... sorry, little paws, so. but have fun! send a postcard! voya. helping you to and through retirement.

you thinking what create some pain.? brace yourself. i got him. no i got him. no i got him. i got him. we've got about 45 minutes

left of trade t. to mike santoli. we're going to hit it from a few different angles here with the dashboard. over the hill? going to look at market indicators perhaps on the downslope in the short term. found of youth high liquidity that's coming from the fountain. will that be effective anymore live for tomorrow still very much a preference for long-term growth stories in the market we'll get into the mid cycle, late cycle conversation that started with the fed decision. over the hill? let's look at today's s&p. the context of a one-year chart and it's getting a lot of eyes on the level where the s&p sits right now. that whole zone is where bulls would hope the market could regroup a little bit if not it looks like this whole zone right here was the breakout area

this is why i think folks will be looking at this exact area if we close blow it to see if we might need a deeper fullback or is a wiggle lower. the trend in the new 52-week highs had been weakening you see the erosion of daily new highs that's an indicator that the market was getting a little bit tired and correcting it was going up in here with not that many new highs. it's something you'll want to see reversed >> mike, thanks very much. we'll see you again in a little while. president trump tweeted the uz luz stop putting in an additional 10% tariff starting on september 1st how will this affect the sector? dan, good afternoon. thank you for joining us >> my pleasure, wilf

>> apple has had about a 3% interday swing on this news. does that make sense to you? will they be hit hard by this extra set of tariffs >> if you go back and look historically what was the biggest company that got hurt last year when you had the issues with china? it was apple they came out negatively and preannounced results because they have high revenue exposure from china what i think people are investigating the tariffs put on last year were industrial goods, things manufactured there. those were excluded iphones. this round of tariffs, the final $300 billion, is consumer goods including things like the iphone, et cetera. this in terms of where the tariffs are focused, this last round, is much more damaging for the consumer companies, the guys who sell pcs, sell iphones, et cetera, which is what apple does

i'm surprised apple is not down more they're at the epicenter much more than last year. >> it's been doing well since its earnings you're not so impressed, dan >> they missed the iphone revenues which people -- that's half of their revenues is in iphones and then everybody is very bullish on services but missed the services expectations as well. wearables made up the distance revenues are up only 1% year over year and eps is down 5% if you look at the stock it's had a great run. the biggest positive for them in my mind they have $100 billion in cash on the balance sheet,

buying back a lot of shares, they keep increasing the dividend and that's terrific the index keeps going up the more people keep buying it, but if you remember last year the stock ran up into october, even though we had all this china stuff going on why? it kept going up so people bought more. it imploded when people were forced to focus on the fundamentals. >> what about alphabet or facebook does that make sense to you under the guise of these tariffs? >> i was glad to see them go down for us that doesn't make sense if you look at google and facebook, they're effectively locked out of china. opening up the chinese markets

to u.s. companies. i was happy because i didn't own as much. they don't have exposure there google's business accelerated. their revenues up 21% year over year facebook's revenues we accelerated up 28% year over year much like apple has done a great job, google for the first time, at least for me, they were much more shareholder friendly in that they put out a $25 billion stock repurchase, google cloud reached over $2 billion a quarter. i was really very happy with google in particular and the way they changed dealing with wall street >> so have you upped the amount you've been buying of those two this afternoon >> well, after the tweet came out and the stocks dropped, that's when we started buying

today, yes >> what about semis down 2%? they've been the victim of some of these tariffs and trades back and forth. with revenue exposure north of 50% for so many of these names what do you do >> you buy everything cyclical and semis are at the epicenter of that. the other side of it is when do you not fight the fundamentals if you look at semiconductors, i've been scratching my head on this all year. we've been wrong they should go down as estimates get cut. if you look at the earnings season, estimates continue to go lower. now you have some companies say we think this is the bottom, et cetera if you look at semiconductor stocks, they're up 35% year to date

who thinks that buying stocks that are hitting all-time record highs while estimates continues to go down is a good risk/reward? they may go up people continue to buy for me i want to buy names with good fundamentals. i would rather buy facebook and google than be involved in semiconductor stocks we had more shorts than longs and semis were the ones we were increasing today we're actually taking off some of the shorts we have across the spaces. >> i want to ask you about netflix who, of course, saw their u.s. subs fall in recent earnings for the first time.

>> we're actually short netflix. i look at it from a different point of view. if you own netflix you should look at this and say u.s. users declined for the first time in almost a decade. and what do you have between now and the end of the year? two companies, one called apple and the other disney that are both going to launch their over-the-top services. netflix is losing about $3 billion in cash flow apple and disney are cash flow generation machines and they have -- disney has tons of content and apple has 1.4 billion users. the incremental person who signs up for a video service, i think they're going to give both disney and apple a hard look for different reasons. and i think that's going to make netflix's fourth quarter very, very rough for them to make their numbers and the stock trades at an 80 p/e with 26% revenue growth

it's not a name -- i would be very nervous owning that name knowing the last quarter wasn't bad and the competitors haven't even come out with their products >> dan this is barb. there seems to be a real question about content and if the stock is going to be content driven if that is the case, they're moving into a very strong season they have a lot of new things coming out that may have changed the story. it may not deserve the same p/e because it will be more volatile what do you think about that >> i bring up an excellent point. one of the things people have said up until now, well, the content doesn't matter as much because it's more sticky, et cetera well, when they reported this last quarter, if you remember they said, well, the reason our subs missed our content slate wasn't very strong you've been talking about how a

lot of that content disney has that time warner media has, et cetera, that's coming off netflix going forward. which means they'll have to spend more money if it is more driven than they thought to maintain that. to me i look at and say this is going to cause some real issues when a lot of that content gets pulled back in house by the guys who are launching their own over-the-top services. this will be a very rough couple of years for netflix they have the best service out there right now. disney has terrific content and i spend my time -- netflix is my guilty pleasure. i binge watch that one a lot of content is the superhero stuff that willbe sitting inside disney. >> dan niles, thank you. >> i get scared on horrors so i

can't do that. >> it's not that scary are you on the other side of that trade, barb, betting on netflix? >> they traditionally have a weak quarter but this happened without competition coming in. i am of the view there's room for everybody for a while to come you still have this secular thing happening. i'm still long and it's just a question do i cut here i'm not going to go to zero on netflix. >> industry groups and their communication staffs are scrambling to get us information, reacting to the news of the new tariffs. the footwear distributors and retailers just putting out a statement on president trump's new policy, 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion saying in part it is clear political considerations are outweighing economic common sense especially as this comes on the heels of a rate drop by the federal reserve more challenging economic times ahead. this is where nike pointed me

when i asked them for a statement. i think they're going to go to their industry groups. they remind everyone that 70% of sneakers, of every pair of shoes sold in the u.s. are from china. this just raises the cost even further. >> this is only 10% and still some delay >> 25% was threatened. >> and things could be delayed again if talks progress. certainly taking everyone by surprise seeing a big interday swing, on the dow. we have 32 minutes left. the dow down 193 which is off the low. the low down about 300 points. up next we'll take a look at how individual sectors could be hurt by president trump's new announcement

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stocks plunging after president trump announced new tariffs on china courtney has the details the latest round, retailers have been working on moving production out of china for years but it's still the top country where u.s. sold apparel and footwear is made steve madden manufacturers

nearly all of its products in china, shares down 10% g-iii has more than 60% pro china. those shares down 9% even retailers with low china manufacturing exposure like capri and tapestry, baby out with the bath water. these additional tariffs will only threaten u.s. jobs and raise costs for american families on everyday goods and that tariffs imposed over the past year haven't worked wilf, back to you. >> last earnings season weep got a real taste of this because all of the executives were required to spell out by analysts and investors what their exposure is, what the impact on the consumer i remember it wasn't pretty. >> but then in some cases it was a little bit surprising as far as the exposure from the cost of

goods sold as i mentioned many retailers have been working to diversify the supply chains and move things out of china. so home depot, for instance, did sell categories that have been exposed to some of these tariffs already in place they said, look, it's like 1% of sales. it's not that big of a deal. we have levers that we can pull. if it happens to be a tariff on a product with price elasticity, we'll find somewhere else to raise the price. right now this is a shock. in some ways we didn't know if or when we would get this. everything is selling off until we can separate who can manage this and mitigate this better than others. >> thanks very much. >> autos and aerospace trading low. phil lebeau has the details of that move for us phil >> wilf, let's look at shares of boeing they're down in the 332 range.

a quarter of its revenue from china so whenever there are trade tensions, that's the first time we've seen it break through the resistance that provided resistance tesla under pressure in part because renewed trade tensions raises concerns we'll see further tariffs on vehicles built in california and then sold in china and the autoparts suppliers, you look at china as the second largest supplier as a country to the united states they are tier two suppliers that go into bigger components that are built here in the united states and finally take a look at shares of general motors beat the street on the top and bottom line. at one point it was up 3% or 4%. it's given back a good portion of that as it's traded lower with the rest of the market.

guys, back to you. >> thank you oil falling sharply today having its worst day of the year. energy the worst performing sector in the market seema moda the worst day since 2016, wti. the worst day in over four years. the concern is that tariffs will weaken global demand and slow down the overall demand for oil. we were already trading lower when you look at oil and energy stocks because of a weak earnings report from royal dutch shell and major energy producer. once president trump's tweet came out oil accelerated their losses keep in mind earnings for the sector have not been great, blended rate is negative 10.5% for the second quarter tomorrow we get earnings from exxon. that could provide a good lens into what producers are seeing not just for the past quarter but the second half of the year.

>> some of the stocks that are holding up >> we want to run you through some of the defensive plays in the market right now gold up 14% since the start of the year, trading at its highest levels since may of 2013 and that is boosting shares of gold miners, one of the etfs that closely tracks the space. on pace for the best day of trading since august of last year stocks in biotech and home construction are holding up relatively well. those industry groups had been trading higher ahead of the president's tweet. they have stayed in positive territory. biotech has bounced 20% off its lows in december and, by the way, on the s&p, the leader right now kellogg up almost 10% on the day comfort food >> better earnings >> utilities top sector up contessa, thank you. >> sure. >> we have just 24 minutes left

of trade at the moment we are down 230 points on the dow. the key thing driving the action stocks plunging after president trump tweeted about a new round of tariffs on chinese goods. we have weak data raising homes for more fed easing. that feels like a long time ago. well below 2% for the first time now about 1.89 >> how do you read through some of these other moves beyond stocks, the 1-8 region the dollar reversed its earlier gain and is now lower. that's a growth trade, right we're seeing central banks preparing to step up that should start to change things when you see what's performing, biotech, home construction, home construction is domestic

right now there's a rush to domestically based businesses. i think in the retail sector you are throwing out all the names there will be good pickings. >> it's not just the domestic. the russell is down the most, 1.3% regional banks are down. >> that's really the global growth trade that's tied to the oil price and to the treasury move and then the sector performance that gets hit on the tariffs also getting hit but not as much. >> i think it's more defensive versus growth as opposed to international or domestic. that's a defensive package the interesting thing what we see the market is closed at the moment

we see u.s. yields rather than the other way around which has been a trend of late this is not driven by the fed. yesterday, though they cut rates, it's driven by trade. >> yes, definitely went a lot lower on the tariff news >> we're joined now by anthony chan and also brian nick whether that does lead to more rate cuts. >> there's no question there were many catalyst that is precipitated the cut the leading star was trade uncertainty. the fed reserve has said if trade uncertainty goes up they will cut interest rates. >> wouldn't the market applaud that, though >> they will unless the trade

uncertainty gets so high that it damages the economy. remember what the trade uncertainty has done it has reduced businesses and reduced capital spending powell said monetary policy is a very blunt instrument and is not really tested to whether or not he can actually deal with this trade uncertainty. it's not a perfect instrument to deal with it >> one of the more hre risky trs >> that's been our mantra all year the middle of the year we were preparing these companies because we didn't think the market overall would do much in the second half of the year. when you throw in these shocks like the trade policy uncertainty, volatility related to the fed, makes it more desirous to get more defensive in the equity market >> how do you think about this in terms of the impact on consumer spending, the strongest

part of a strong u.s. economy. can they weather it? >> i think the bond market has spoken remember in the second quarter the strongest component in gdp was consumer spending. now tariffs on the consumer product. you will reduce consumer spending gdp will get weaker. you see the long yield coming down, flattening economic growth is going to slow down, no question. >> what's your balance between domestic and international >> we have been slightly favoring domestic over international. i think that's been true throughout the trade war the more contagion to overseas risks elevates the risk in your portfolio. we don't see catalysts in the

euro zone and the uk this is going to continue to challenge china and the rest of emerging markets as well >> brian, anthony, thank you for joining us up next, we will talk to the president of the american apparel and footwear association. his reaction to more tariffs on chinese imports. >> pinterest, etsy and go pro after the bell shares of pinterest up year to date we'll break down the numbers when they come out (soft music)

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you want a war, you've got one.. ♪ [ screaming ] woo! welcome back over to mike for the second installment of the dashboard mike >> call this found of youth. for much of the day it looked like high liquidity was reviving stocks, maybe continue to happen in the coming ays. take a look at a two day of the s&p 500. these two-day charts show how headline driven these markets are right now. the s&p 500 obviously yesterday had this sort of disappointment on the fed guidance. we got that back this morning. you had weaker than expected data okay, fine, we'll get the fed cut that the bond market really

wants and you got the trade. i pointed out the 2950 area early. we bounced off that. attempting to show some resilience off that level in the last half hour or so the ten-year yield, you've been talking aboutit, got compresse so it was similarly around that 10:00 a.m. moment and right here where we did get that real leg down so clearly the market is geared in this direction. the trade news only adding to that finally the dollar index, all the same story we're toggling around the headlines. it also points up though, guys, i think that we have to remember back to the threat of mexican tariffs that once you put this threat out there and it gets into the market, you also have the makings of relief if, in fact, there's any delay on that. i want to point out that 10:00 a.m. number. clearly the market wants help from the fed and is fearful of trade exacerbating the story and the instrument that forces the fed's hand >> a tale of two trading sessions mike, thanks

u.s. chamber of commerce weighing in. this group represents hundreds of american businesses they say when it comes to the new round of tariffs president trump announced, in part, raising tariffs by 10% on an additional $300 billion worth of imports from china will only inflict greater pain on american businesses, farmers, workers, and consumers and undermine an otherwise strong economy business is speaking out even groups like the chamber, barb, support the president's efforts to get better trading terms for u.s. business. how much pain is worth the gain? >> when you talk to farmers, they are hurting margins are hurting. i said, how long can you hold on said we're hoping for relief soon it's not good.

it's an interesting time we saw it last year. the market sells off on this kind of news it gets absorbed and right now we're finishing up earnings season and heading into august when it's very quiet around new york and wall street and so you could see further down side in the market i do think people will be upping the probabilities the fed will ease and that supported the market all year long. >> check out the retail index after president trump tweeted about the tariffs and chinese goods. the president and ceo of the american apparel and footwear association, rick helfenbein, joins us you testified in washington about putting more tariffs on the remaining $300 billion did you expect it to happen? >> we sort of expected it would happen and tried to warn everybody. this has sent shivers down the

spine, the retail, brand, this is a disaster. we're heading into the back to school season. certainly holiday goods are on the water. this will mean massive inflation. we don't have any room here. this is beyond disaster looking for a place to happen. and we told the administration, we told them over and over again stay away from the consumer. the president wants to negotiate so he's tightening the squeeze this will be retail ugly >> rick, what do you expect the balance to be between inflation and margin pressure of that 10%? >> it's really hard.

the 10% on some of our products we finessed it hoping it would go away. now 10% on everything, you're caught between a rock and a hard place, whether you raise your prices and then when you raise your prices people stop buying either way you do it you're cooked we're running out of time. >> some headlines from president trump on the announcement of these new tariffs. he says he's not concerned about the drop in dow stocks he says the president, that is, taxing china until the u.s. can reach a trade deal with them clearly putting the pressure on china. we'll bring you more especially the videotape as soon as we get it remind us how much of apparel that americans buy and footwear that americans buy is actually made in china that will be

vulnerable here. >> 42% of all apparel coming into the united states comes from china 69% of all footwear comes from china. accessories including handbags and backpacks comes from china we're cooked. >> we're cooked, rick. so do you think the nikies es o this world -- we're cooked is slightly over the top, isn't it? >> it's not over the top we can scramble. nobody is going to go naked. this will be retail ugly we don't have a place to go. you can't move this mountain of merchandise so quickly get out of china, that's the

message they're sending us the problem is we can't do it as fast as they would like us to do it that's why we're cooked. what are we going to do? we'll stay there and fight it out and move as fast as we can and watch what happens we've warned them, we've warned them, we've warned them. now we'll see what happens next. >> we certainly will watch to see whamt happens. thank you for joining us >> thank you >> 40% is still a lot -- a large number i thought more manufacturing had been moved to vietnam and bangladesh higher numbers on footwear and 80% of accessories and handbags. >> we have 7 1/2 minutes left. barb, what's your last chance trade? >> chinese internet stock alibaba. it's getting killed today, down over 4%, as it did in june it's not affected by the trade

tariffs. it has huge opportunities in terms of building out their platforms, a huge cash flow and the stock is still off its high. anytime you have this kind of trade noise, it's an opportunity to buy >> they're not going to get cooked by these tariffs? >> no. >> i like that bold call. play the china consumer story. >> mastercard is up 8% since your last chance trade and costco >> we're tracking you. >> that was as of the close yesterday. we'll see what they're doing today. >> take the credit >> barb, thanks. covering the angles in our closing countdown, seven minutes until the close. dow is down 290. we were up 311 at the highs. [leaf blower]

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and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. welcome back four minutes left to go. time for the closing countdown let's trade the close with head of u.s. equity and cash trading at barclay's huge interday moves and a pickup in volatility. what's your take >> so as quickly as i can, the story reversed from yesterday. yesterday the fed wasn't as dovish that was reason to be hesitant

we expected the market would bounce once it traded off a little bit today we have fundamental impact to the economy if the tariffs do go through a little bit of risk reduction the case can be made now with two big moves as it picks up the system could be sellers as well. i do think there's a near term floor. but the case for upside with these headline risks is now muted at best. >> mike, thank you very much 1% decline for the dow almost that much for the s&p mike >> this whipsaw action today did have some stories to tell in terms of the relative parts of the market that were doing better or worse. the growth well outperforming value.

that's a big spread to show between growth and value the bank is down almost 4% look at the one year of russell 1,000 growth versus value. there was a tentative effort of value to start performing better again. right now you see the spread has been reasserted. to real change from what we've seen in the low yield environment. speaking that have to rick santelli at the cme. >> reporter: look at interday of soybeans, commodities got tapped when the tariff headline hit, markets rocked look at a two-year note deals down 14 basis points ten year down 12 to close the lowest level since november of 2016 finally the dollar index on this chart. it's still up solidly. now let's turn to the nasdaq bertha coombs? >> reporter: apple is down about

$12 from the high of the day back to those levels we saw in early may when we first heard about tariffs. had been up 2% on the day. now down 2% on the day for the group as a whole bad numbers in macao over to bob. >> reporter: bertha, higher prices for shoes, for clothing, electronics. take a look at the retailers shoes, you see declines in skechers the same with apparel, abercrombie, gap, pvh. it's been a horrible year. pvh sets a new low for them. they import most of their stuff from china, pier 1, ethan allen, williams-sonoma. best buy in a turnaround situation, a great year, the ceo

warned in march high er tariffs his stock down 10% we are closing near the lows of the day. after being up almost 250 points ending the day down 270 points >> good afternoon. welcome to "the closing bell." >> alongside mike santoli, a wild day here on wall street the dow surging 311 points, gave up all of those gains and another 282, where we close right now. there will be new tariffs into this country $300 billion worth, 10%. that was enough to knock the stock market.

and then the tariff-related names in consumer discretionary. electronics like apple >> utilities related to health care were the sectors that eked out gains for the day. the regional banks suffered down over 4%. keep an eye on the chinese yuan. 0.7% move. >> some say that negates it because it makes them more competitive.

>> i don't think much more worrying whether they lose control of that and if it gets further. the dollar as a whole slightly weaker today, only 0.2%. the swiss frank and the japanese yen seeing significant gains we'll bring you the numbers as soon as we get them. >> and don't miss an exclusive interview this hour. former fed vice chair, donald kohn and his reaction to slap more tariffs on china and what the fed is going to do about it. join us to talk about the market today we've got the president of the national foreign trade counsel, barbara duran is still with us from bda capital partners we'll be joined by mohammed alarian. mike, first to you what does it tell you. >> if i can wrap it together i think the lesson traders and

investors got, if you want the fed to ease more, you will have to have a reason yesterday was about the fed being diffident and then today you get the trade war. took a path of maximum frustration for everybody. cleared out the bears in the morning and the short-term bulls in the afternoon the market is having a test now of that breakout it was really close to the all-time highs in the early afternoon and now here we are. >> mike, tech clearly being affected was the best performing and ended down some stood out >> complete safe haven a crowded over owned stock but it has everything going for it

what happened was semiconductors were very strong in the rally portion of the day and they're in the cross hairs your haven within tech is microsoft software, other faang stuff. mexico, when we had the threat against mexico seemed like, oh, no, this is another front opening up and gave the makings of relief down the road if, in fact, it's not as hard a line. >> rufus, how do you expect the chinese to retaliate or respond? >> well, i don't think the chinese are going to just immediately fold and do a deal the warfare is getting more serious. the president is trying to soft sell it. this is a small tariff increase. a 10% tariff is sort of five times the level of average u.s. tariffs. it's hard to see this as anything but, you know, a big move and one that has a negative

impact for u.s. consumers, certainly the farmers. i don't think they will react positively >> good afternoon to you what's your take what have you been focused on? >> i think the market has reacted rationally if you think what tariffs do, yield moved down oil went down because global growth prospects are coming down and the dollar hardly moved because in most scenarios they outperform

it will loosen policies like the fed. i think the market reacted in a very rational way. the move was quite big because it came as a surprise. >> president trump is on the wire president trump says he can do much more or he can do less depending on what happens with talks with the chinese tariffs could be lifted in stages according to president trump and the latest tariffs on chinese imports could be raised to above 25% is it the same playbook or is this time different because he's venturing into consumer products which goes right to the heart of the u.s. economy >> you've heard me say the best you can hope for is a ceasefire. we have to understand the trade tensions will not go away.

the drivers are not just economic and china has an incentive until the elections. the best we can hope for, the ceasefire. escalation until now the markets have focused only on one thing, central bank liquidity and where the market goes from here is a fed call ironically than tariffs markets are completely obsessed with the fed injecting liquidity. >> some of the smaller caps, the regional banks or not? zero earnings in china of course >> yes, i think anything that doesn't have anything to do with china is interesting particularly if it was sold off today. we could see followthrough tomorrow there will be opportunities in those names, in those sorts of names. i would sniff around in the consumer discretionary retail that has no exposure and find the regional banks it's a

different story. there could be opportunities if they sold off today. >> it hurts china and we've seen that in the economic numbers and the markets. will that be the case with these new tariffs? >> the long-term damage will be damaged to anybody who has global businesses, whose supply chains reach outside the u.s we can't expect the short-term damage to china to necessarily force them into doing everything we want. you have to gauge the impact on u.s. businesses who have higher prices because of all of this. it's not pain free for either

side the bigger question to me is are we getting closer to a deal or is the administration looking for some kind of broader decoupling from china that will play out for years and years in the markets? >> it's definitely, as rufus says, not pain free for either of these two players, china and the u.s. that's the euro zone 46.5 yes, u.s. manufacturing disappointing today but still above $50. do you think it's possible in the euro zone? >> it's most painful for china but europe right now is the most vulnerable area. it comes at a time europe

already is looking at 1% growth. and the minute you talk about sub 1% growth you talk about the risk of full speed when you lose altitude quickly it speaks to why u.s. stocks should continue to outperform the rest of the world. the big question is what do you do overall you should continue to favor u.s. stocks versus the rest of the world. >> guys, we will leave it all there. thank you very much for joining us >> the next meeting in september, joining us now on a cnbc exclusive for more donald kohn former vice chair of the federal reserve. so much to talk to you about today. nice to have you here.

does the announcement of new tariffs and the remaining $300 billion of chinese imports change the calculus or the fed this year? >> it certainly could. it'll raise prices for consumers. it will hurt households. the uncertainty about trade and trade tensions was one of the things that jay powell pointed to yesterday as a down side risk to the economy. this escalates the trade tensions, increases uncertainty, will be hard for businesses to figure out where their capital spending should be so this is not good for the u.s. economy. if it leads to a good agreement and a standdown and a truce that will be great. but, meanwhile, it certainly is not good for the economy and

it's understandable why the stock market and the bond market has reacted the way it has >> a broader macroeconomic weakness >> interest rate cuts by themselves will have no effect on the trade war providing some cushions and offsets to shocks that came from other places at least it helped the economy be resilient to those problems if this persists and business confidence, on household confidence is with this, a further cut in interest rates will be very much on the table

to help the economy in other ways >> were you onboard with the interest rate cut of yesterday >> yes, i was. i thought it ended up where the fed should a quarter point cut and a bias towards these but not a firm commitment about where it was going from here. retail songs, employment, the big, important pieces of data, if anything were stronger than expected i think the risk management aspects ring true to me. the likelihood of bad things happening is greater than good things happening in the global dimension. inflation below path and below target and perhaps coming up

in a situation like this it seems there was very little cost to lowering interest rates and perhaps some gain, as i say, cushioning the economy against these other effects. >> i think the fed chair has done good communication in some respects there's room for improvement i like the way chairman powell tries to express things in plainer language people can understand i think in a rapidly changing situation there are nuances and risks that could be expressed better than he has expressed them

there's always room for improvement. i want to adhere that this communication is very difficult. a difference as to what is expected is not at all unusual and has existed over many chairs this is by no means an easy task and can always require -- you can always work at doing it better >> we've about 20 seconds until we go to the president zae donald, how many interest rate cuts do you expect this year >> i would expect one more i think it depends on how this plays out. i would say before today i thought there was a 50/50 odds on another interest rate cut

if the ramifications -- >> thank you for joining us. we will listen in to the president. >> i expected that a little bit because people don't understand what's happening we've taxed china on $300 billion worth of goods and products being sold into our country. they have to pay it because what at the do, they devalue their currency and push money out. we're also charging them 25% on $250 billion so we're taking in many billions of dollars there's been absolutely no inflation and, frankly, it hasn't cost our consumer anything a lot of companies are moving out of china and china has had a rough -- this is their worst year in 27 years according to yesterday's "wall street journal. i don't want that.

when my people came home, they said we're talking we have another meeting in early september. i said that's fine in the meantime until such time as there's a deal we'll be taxing them. we're just getting very good numbers from the border. the 21,000 soldiers supplied by mexico and i want to thank mexico they're doing a great job. the numbers are way down at the border >> on north korea they just launched their third missile in about a week is kim testing you >> i think it's very much under control. very much under control. >> will you start negotiations again, sir >> a full-blown trade war here, what would you say -- >> what would you say it is? let me ask you a question. [ inaudible question ] >> right, right, sure. what would you say when china for the last 20 years has been taking hundreds of millions of dollars out of our country and we had a number of presidents

that never would do anything about it what would you say hundreds and billions a year we have rebuilt china so now it's time that we change things around that would be fine with me [ inaudible question ] >> i think president xi, somebody i like a lot, i think he wants to make a deal, but frankly he's not going fast enough he said he was going to be buying from our farmers. he didn't do that. he said he was going to stop fentanyl from coming into our country. he didn't do that. and this was time and very importantly for many years, you know this better than anybody, you've been covering it for a long time, for many years china has been taking out hundreds of billions of dollars a year and rebuilding china

it's time that we rebuild our country. >> do you still trust him, sir do you trust xi? >> the one thing i have to say and you have to say this, what china is doing is devaluing their currency and pumping money out like they've never done before and are paying for the tariffs. we're not. >> do you still trust president xi [ inaudible question ] >> well, something is probably happening with hong kong because when you look at what's going on, they've had riots for a long period of time and i don't know what china's attitude is somebody said at some point they will want to stop that but that's between hong kong and that's between china because hong kong is a part of china they'll have to deal with that themselves they don't need advice >> did the u.s. government -- mr. president, sir -- >> you put a date of september 1 on tariffs

it takes a long time for the ships to come over and it's a period of time i'm giving up a four-week period of time before the tariffs go on we're now taking in tariffs on 10%, on over $300 billion and 25% on $250 billion, and it's been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs >> do you still trust president xi, sir? [ inaudible question ] >> go ahead. [ inaudible question ] >> short-range missiles, we never made an agreement on that. i have no problem. we'll see what happens these are short-range missiles they're very standard. >> will you continue negotiating with them, sir >> go ahead? go ahead [ inaudible question ]

>> congressman ratliff is an outstanding man and i'm sure he'll be able to do very well. >> mr. president, on cincinnati -- >> we're not changed on huwei, we're not allowing them in our country. we can do business for nonsecurity things we'll do that. anything having to do with national security we're not dealing with huwei -- >> on your rally tonight -- [ inaudible question ] >> well, i haven't actually heard that there's a lot of things going on i would be surprised what james comey did was illegal. so i would be surprised but i don't know anything about that >> mr. president, in cincinnati at your rally tonight, are you prepared to tell your supporters to stop if they begin chanting

something problematic? >> i don't know what's going to happen i can tell you this, i'm going to cincinnati. the arena is a very large one. and we've sold it out. we can sell it out probably ten times from what i hear the applications for seats, as you know, never had an empty seat the applications are very big. i have no idea we have a great group of people. they love our country. they love the job we're doing. and when they see the kind of people that want to represent us from the last two nights, that's not what they want if they do the chant we'll have to see what happens. >> will you stop them, sir >> i don't know that you can stop people. i don't know that you can. if they do it, we'll have to make a decision then >> do you have a message for them now we have over 100,000

applications for whatever the size of the 14,000-seat arena. we're way over 122,000 applications for those seats you know what my message is? i love them. and i think they love me i actually think they love me. >> mr. president, on bin laden, sir -- [ inaudible question ] >> that's up to -- really up to prime minister modi and i met with prime minister kahn i think they're fantastic people i would imagine they can get along very well. if they wanted somebody to intervene or to help them and i spoke with pakistan about that and i spoke to india about it, that's been going on

>> was the u.s. government involved in the death of bin lad laden? >> he was threatening to our country, saying bad things about our country. i will say hamza bin laden was threatening to our country >> russia was interfering. >> you don't really believe this, do you we didn't talk about that. >> they're having massive fires i offered hour assistance because we're putting out forest

fires. if they should need it i offered our assistance we had a short talk, a good talk these are massive fires like i haven't seen that was the primary importance of the conversation. >> sir, on the fed, sir -- >> mueller said he believes -- [ inaudible >> well, i watched mueller i'm not sure he knows what's going on he said no collusion with us and ultimately no obstruction because it led to no obstruction by a very smartgroup of people including our attorney general no collusion, no obstruction you would have to say it was maybe not so good. not so good. >> sir, on the fed -- mr. president, on the fed, why wasn't a quarter rate cut good enough >> our country is doing very

well we're setting records in every way including employment, unemployment we have now more people working in the united states than ever before the stock market will take a hit. it will be better because of what i'm doing somebody should have done this with china long time ago i will say this, there's never been a time in the history of our country like we have right now the best employment numbers for african-american, hispanic, women -- the best numbers we've ever had our military is going to be at a level in a very short period of time, stronger and better with new aircraft, new missiles, new everything hopefully we don't have to use it go ahead >> what did you think of the democratic debate and

specifically the charge that you are assisting al qaeda i think even you probably didn't like that statement, john. she doesn't know what she's talking about. i defeated isis. right now we have captured over 10,000 we have 2,500 isis fighters that we want europe to take they were going back into europe, into france, germany, into various places. we have 2,500 isis we've captured we've captured 100% of the caliphate and have done a big job on al qaeda and everybody else >> can you negotiate with kim jong-un? >> for her to make that statement is ridiculous and she's taken a lot of heat on it.

we have thousands of isis fighters we want europe to take. if they don't take them we'll probably have to release them to europe >> can you still negotiate with kim after what he's done this week, after what he's done now >> sure. >> do you trust president xi >> why was the tariff 10% and not 25%? >> that's funny. >> what would be good enough >> so interesting because everyone says that's so tough. look, i did more than anybody thought with the first $250 billion and the 10% is for a short-term period.

i'm very happy the way it is right now. people came back they will meet in september. if you meet, that's great. we're going to pay -- they're going to pay a tariff. it will be a very substantial tariff if you remember when i did the 25% i did it in stages this can also be lifted ultimately in stages or it can be taken off well beyond 25%. this would be done in stages i put on 10% on 300, approximately $300 billion we already have a 25% tariff on the first $250 billion the 10% follows the $250 billion at 10% >> are you considering a block

aid given the amount of involvement and china and iran >> yes, i am >> when? >> yes, i am >> house democrats have said they want to launch a house inquiry. why do you think that number -- >> it's interesting. nobody has mentioned this question to me in so long until last night at the very end it wasn't even mentioned in the debates. nobody has mentioned it to me. it's a hoax. what you haven't covered, two days ago a highly respected judge in the southern district of noern, in manhattan, came out with a decision and the whole russia hoax. he said that, it's a hoax. you want to read the decision. this is a decision by a judge

highly respected, appointed by bill clinton when he was president. he said it's a hoax. that's what it is. this was a case brought by the democrats. no one wants to talk about it because it's fake news >> what about the imf treaty >> we mostly talked about the forest fires in siberia and other parts of russia. i said we have the greatest equipment. if we can help you, let us know. i said if we can help you, let us know. >> you're pulling out of the treaty tomorrow. >> by the way, i will say russia would like to do something on a nuclear treaty they would like to do something and so would i >> what's your response to

elizabeth warren's last night. [ inaudible >> i've watched elizabeth warren, sometimes referred to as pocahontas with her try at ancestry to me she doesn't have credibility. everything she did was a fraud she got into colleges, teaching jobs, said she was of indian ter taj. it turned out to be a lie. she has a big lack of credibility. [ inaudible question ] >> i didn't really know. >> i think kamala didn't do well last night i think biden did okay he came through. he came limping through as i said about sleepy joe. he limped right through it

i think he was okay. i think kamala had a bad night last night, i would say. >> do you have a message on the anniversary of the uprising? >> i have a lot of respect for poland i like them and i will be going to poland very soon. i know they're building an installation and they're putting in all of the money, 100% of the money so building something very nice for the united states to have go ahead >> house speaker nancy pelosi, i don't know if you saw, described your prisoner as a slum law. >> i think the responsibility is the people that have run baltimore for so many years. obviously headed up by elijah cummings

we've given billions to baltimore. it's the number one city in the united states on crime i saw a statistic it's worse than honduras. what the people appreciate what i'm doing the money was stolen or misspent or wasted. a lot of things happened the government has been very good elijah cummings does not help the people maybe we'll get together and get it straightened out. it's not only baltimore, it's other democrat run cities. you ought to report on it some time thank you. >> president trump, on the white house lawn taking a variety of questions from reporters

including about the new tariffs he announced via twitter, $300 billion of chinese imports into the country, 10% tariff. the president says i can do more or less. he repeats it is china not u.s. consumers that bear the brunt of his tariffs. let's get more reaction from eamon javers what else did we learn about this new policy? >> reporter: at the beginning of the tape you couldn't hear, the president was asked if he was concerned about the multihundred-point stock market drop-off we saw in the wake of the tweet. he said, no, he's not concerned about that he expected it a little bit. the reason he said people don't understand still what he's trying to do suggesting the market has misunderstood what he's doing and that explains the sell-off later in the exchange i asked him why did he go for a 10%

tariff rate, why not 25% as in the past the president said ultimately he's starting at 10% co-go up or down depending on the chinese reaction he wants to leave himself wiggle room it could be higher than 25% when all is said and done but he's not looking to do that now, sara >> we mentioned how he still referred to the president of china as his friend, kind of giving a glimmer of hope as it were about what direction from here what were the comments during that 17 minutes about president xi and the prospect whether we'll get a deal or worsen from here >> reporter: i don't think the president seemed optimistic. going into september, he's ratcheting up these tariffs and will see what happens. on the other hand he and his staff will tell you what they're doing to come to the table

>> he said he's not gone fast enough with regard to xi thank you. also should note the u.s. bank arena in downtown cincinnati where the president is headed, and he made a big point that it holds a lot of people, 17,500 seats, even more than he thought. it's a very large arena. >> so 82,500 people got turned away apparently. >> let's keep discussing the impact on the market joining us is pimco's head of policy libby, thank you for joining us. good to see you. what is your reaction? >> the expectations were very low.

based on the statements in the chinese and americans it seemed like the discussions had been constructive from the president's tweets and these comments they are still some big issues that remain. from our understanding, however, and this is sort of interesting, this could have actually been associated with the goods purchases which were the easiest things in all of these negotiations the enforcement, the reason i bring that up is if they're quibbling about the easier issues, a deal is quite elusive. that means they will be harder to reconcile >> where do you put the odds of these tariff rates going up even further to potentially 25% >> taking a step back it's important to remember these are not actually escalating -- or not going to be imposed until september 1st. so there's still a month now

i don't think -- >> do you think mexico as mike has been saying? >> maybe he has a lot more support going hard on china and trying to get a deal on china. everybody imposed those tariffs on mexico. maybe we see a pivot and maybe if the market continues to sell off we'll see a pivot. i don't think personally that's likely he tries to escalate and that's been the pattern all along >> if by what you're saying the goods purchases it china comes back and says, fine, we'll buy the farm stuff -- not before september 1st but at some point -- >> sure. they get upset about something and it goes away and it's okay again. >> what we've seen is when tariffs are imposed he is reluctant to roll those back

>> do you think the rate cut enabled the president to do this or it was only 25% sparked him to get the extra cut >> i think there are a lot of theories and we can speculate. did jay powell give him a green light to go harder sure i think it was interesting in the press conference trade policy so many times i do think this latest action was because of the recent breakdown. >> thank you for joining us. still ahead, find out how you can protect your portfolio against trade volatility in this market do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging?

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a slew of earnings hitting after hours as well as all the macro stuff. let's begin with square's numbers. seema? square earnings and revenue beat but a slight miss on volume, $26.8 billion, but it's lower than the $26.9 billion estimate, weak earnings guidance also not helping, speaking to how crowded the space is becoming

separately door dash is acquiring caviar, square's food ordering platform for over $400 million in cash and preferred stock. jack dorsey of square says we believe partnering with door dash provides a valuable and strategic opportunity for square we are looking at shares down 7% extended trade >> seema, thank you. pinterest results are out. julia boorstin with the results on that one. julia? >> pinterest shares soaring in after hours trading now up about 12% after beating expectations across the board revenue $261 million, higher than expectations. monthly active users growing faster than expected growing 30% year over year to 300 million users. there's 8 million more than the consensus expectations and a loss of 6 cents a share. that number isn't comparable of the company's loss of $26 million does compare to expectations of a $39 million loss so the loss smaller than expected and pinterest raising

its revenue and earnings guidance for the full year both to above the consensus expectations this as the company delivers international growth as well as double digit percentage growth here in the u.s. and growing its advertiser base as well as the advertisers to spend more. back over to you >> julia, thank you. etsy also out moments ago. courtney reagan has those numbers for us so we have the stock going lower for etsy after hours down by just about 2% that is well off the lows after putting up a mixed report 14 cents. analysts had expected 13 cents so slightly better than expected revenue coming in at $181 million. the street was looking forr e$13 million. sales was stronger than expected and the guidance for the full year and revenue looks to be relatively strong as well. back over to you, sara >> courtney, thank you let's get to go pro's results.

josh lipton? >> go pro an eps of 3 cents and expectations of 4 cents and revenue of $292 million. so on the bottom and top, the company says it will be raising its outlook for the second half of this year camera units $1.1 million. their subscription service surpassed active paying subscribers so that's up 15% did you know that in june go pro, they say in mexico. remember they had told us they had this plan to insulate against possible tariffs back to you. >> josh, thank you go pro down 5% the standout, up a healthy -- do you have it coming up again? >> it's up double digits and up to a price it hasn't seen since, i think, may 1st it had this big spike after the ipo and really raising revenue

guidance and also kind of improving their guidance for cash flow for the rest of the year it's impressive. it fits in with the theme of pretty much every social media player outperformed expectations this quarter at the same time you are seeing a lot of the consumer products companies seeming like they figured out the digital advertising being better i think it's impressive with pinterest. the story has been u.s., average revenue producers much higher. 70% are outside the u.s. >> their international average revenue per user up 123% it's impressive. >> up next, managing major risks as stocks tumble after president trump tweeted the u.s. is upping the ante in the trade battle what could that mean for your money coming up. in the human brain, billions of neurons play in harmony.

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wild day on wall street. the market and dow swung nearly 600 points to close lower by 280. let's send it to mike santoli with the final dashboard of the day. mike. >> sara, they say age is a state of mind, they say it but i don't believe it there is debate about how old the cycle is remember, 24 hours ago the market was consumed with the idea that jay powell talked about the fed cut as a mid cycle adjustment look at unemployment claims and see if this trend, long-term trend and this cycle's trend looks like mid cycle probably not, right? people are using this chart to say whether it is over or not we are late in the cycle. very good claims number again today, 215,000 it has been very steady at

historic lows and going for a long time. arguably anyway i think a lot of investors would almost like the fed chairman to think of things as potentially late cycle, therefore maybe have a greater sense of urgency to ease, whether it is warranted or not another way to look at this is within the consumer confidence numbers we just got from the conference board in the past few days, they ask, how do you feel today about conditions and what is your outlook, what are your expectations this is expectations, minus current conditions basically this starts to go down in the latter part of the cycle and people say things are great right now, i'm not sure they can stay so great. these things will suggest we are advanced in terms of where the cycle is again, it doesn't say it is over these are only two indicators but i think it informs the way the market is interpreting what powell is saying about where we are in the cycle, guys. >> mike, thank you very much we have news on amazon from washington ylan has though details for us. >> the white house has instructed defense secretary to reexamine the $10 billion cloud computing project known as jedi

because it was expected to be awarded to amazon. now we know that the president is not a fan of that company we also know that oracle had filed a suit to try to block that deal and has been lobbying furiously to prevent amazon from getting that contract. the pentagon had previously said it expected to announce the award by august 23rd at the earliest, but now a defense department spokesperson says that the secretary is looking at j jedi but no decision will be made on the program until he has completed his examination. no new date has been named back to you, guys. >> ylan, thank you cnbc has a financial wellness and education initiative called "invest in you, ready, set, grow" at part of our partnership with acorner, micro investing app. >> rick edelman joins us now, founder of edelman financial engines. he has an op-ed out today about how investors can avoid big financial mistakes

thanks for joining us. >> happy to be here. >> the op-ed which is available on cnbc.com goes through why people are perhaps missing out on some of the gains which could be quite easy to rectify what is the key error some people are making? >> it is all about behavior. we are our own worst enemy we buy at the wrong time for the wrong reason, we sell at the wrong time for the wrong reason and it is because of psychological biasses. we need to recognize these inherent error that our brain plays tricks on us to avoid the dumb mistakes. >> what's one? >> simple one is availability bias there might be additional facts you are not as familiar with for example, a simple an easy quiz, what kills more people, lightning or shark attacks most people think it is shark attacks because that's what you hear about in the media, but lightning kills 20 times more people than sharks do. >> really? >> but the media never talks about lightning attacks, or

lightning strikes. it is availability bias, a simple ill vaustration. >> clearly the jp morgans of the world have better access to information than we do at home is the answer to hand your money to a money manager and try not to look at a price everyday? >> whether you do it yourself or hand it to a money manager, you want to resist trading on a knee jerk transaction another bias people make is that they react to the last piece of news they got when in fact they should be looking at the trend line like you were talking about a moment ak. let's see what is going on over long periods because it could represent a different story than what happened a moment ago. >> rick, you have been in this business a while there has been greater understanding or at least awareness of these behavioral tendencies that people have. >> right. >> do you think it has changed client behavior, like as you interact with people or is it, okay, i guess we're broken but have people fix themselves >> i'm not sure because it is a human tendency to buy when you

are excited and sell when you are scared so the real key is to get someone who can do some hand holding with you, who can error check your tendencies, to help you verify, is it smart to do what you were thinking about going and doing before you act impulsively or rashly. >> i thought, wilfred, you were bringing up the soccer example he has on action bias. >> it is hysterical. soccer goalies when facing penalty kicks almost always jump left or right because if they stand in the middle and the ball goes left to right they will look stupid and we will do anything to avoid looking stupid they act even though it is not worth while because most of the time the ball is kicked down the middle instead of doing something, just stand there. >> i don't think it is a perfect example i'm afraid to say. >> it is a fun one though. >> it is a fun one, because sometimes if they stood in the middle they wouldn't go down there. >> because arsenal always blocks, is that what you're saying >> no, arsenal doesn't win at the moment, alas we might do, we signed a $100 million player today which is great news. rick, back to the point here, what is the overall advice and

best way for people to invest? >> we need to realize we are emotional create yours, that we don't act intellectually as much as we believe. as a result we get excited when the market is rising and fearful when the market is falling and it tends to make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time for the wrong reason if you can error check yourself about that, if you can say what is my motivation for doing this trade, is it because of the sound momentumales and facts or is it because i'm running with the herd and caught up in it. >> people are going to ask your advice, what do you do there's a new round of tariffs against china, chinese imports, 300 billion in the u.s would you tell people to sell or is that one of those panic moments that you shouldn't give in to. >> this could be perceived as one of the panicked moments or an opportunity to buy on the dip. the real question people are asking about the president is, is president trump crazy or crazy like a fox your answer to that question will determine how you should proceed. >> so what's the answer? >> what do you tell people you're number one ranked.

>> we're telling our clients to ignore the noise we think in the long run, the next five to ten years, and most folks are saving for long-term goals, college for kids, your own retirement, this noise will be old news by the time you need the cash so don't let this sway you from your long-term financial strategy. >> rick, thanks for joining us great to see you rick edelman joining us there. to read his null piece go to cnbc.com/investinyou well, with all of that let's do your wall street look ahead earnings roll on tomorrow, exxon and chevron biggies set to report in the morning. what to expect from the jobs report, ylan moiy has it for us. >> reporter: analysts are not expecting the job growth to continue the average forecast is about 165,000 jobs for july, and if job growth began to slip could the fed be forced into another rate cut before the year is over that will be the big question.

fed chair jay powell has been highlighting trade tensions as a potential threat to the economy. we got trump's tweet and talk on tariffs today. what do the manufacturing jobs look like? the sector added 17,000 jobs last month can it maintain the pace in the months ahead amid the new tradetive? back to you. >> energy stocks tanking as crude plunged. exxon and chevron will report results tomorrow and contessa brewer has a preview on that. >> let's start with exxon mere consensus expectations are revenues will drop 11.3% over last year to $65.2 billion and earnings are expected to decline 28% to $0.66 per share analysts anticipation chevron's earnings will hold steady at 1.78 per share, same in second quarter in 2018 but revenues are expected to decline 4% to $40.5 billion. we are likely to hear more about the softness in commodity pricing and the slowing global economy, dragged down by the

intense trade tensions between the united states and china on those calls. >> contessa, thank you very much guys, as it relates to the china tariffs, we did just get a tweet from the editor of "the global times" which is the chinese -- >> yes. >> thought of as a mouth piece, right? >> for sure. >> it is state-run media he says the new tariffs will not make a closer deal that the u.s. wants, only make it further away and the chinese won't give priority to controlling the trade war scale. they will focus on the national straj ji under a prolonged trade war. >> overnight we will watch how china opens obviously, but also the uwan if it continues to hover around 695, 696 level or move meaningfully past the seven level. i think how asia trades will be indicative of the sentiment that comes through, as is always the case with europe. >> yes, want to see if we get a complete risk-off trade rolling through the markets. you see the yen rallying and things like that

i think it is significant. the jobs number hard to know exactly whether it sways the debate tremendously unless it is a real outlier number because i think jobs is not the swing factor. >> it is trade. >> exactly in terms of the fed. we are out of time thanks for watching. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money" i'm scott wapner in tonight for melissa lee. our traders on the desk are carter worth, tim seymour, steve grasso and guy adami we kick things off with a tariff takedown, that's what it was stocks tumbling late today as president trump turns up the heat on the trade war with china, the dow giving up a 311 point game to finish the day deep in the red. we have full team coverage of today's dramatic turn of events. let's begin with the latest out of the white house where eamon javers is live for us in washington. >> reporter: the president just talked to reporters on the south