tv Fast Money CNBC August 6, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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looking toward a moment when the fever had broken a little bit on some of these issues, but we can -- >> and, of course, the asian market opened, the s&p 500 is down 1.7% this week, shanghai is down 3% plus so we will keep an eye on asian markets overnight. that does it for "closing bell.." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money" i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk are tim seymour, karen finerman, guy adami. we will break down the headlines. we are watching shares of wynn and match, both stocks on the move after reporting results we are all over today's rally. stocks seeming to bounce back after the worst sell-off of the year is it an all clear we will debate that. we begin with a big mover after hours, disney. we'll go straight to julia boorstin with the details. >> reporter: melissa, in his
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comments on the call, disney ceo bob igor stressing that the lower than expected results on the quarter are results of the big changes he implemented at the company, both fox's acquisition and disney's pivot to embrace the direct to consumer business they're investing in right now igor just announced consumers will be able to subscribe to a bundle of their services for $12.99, they will get hulu, espn and disney plus, worth noting it is the same cost as netflix. take a listen to his comment here. >> our results reflect our efforts to integrate the assets, businesses and talent we acquired in order to enhance and advance our strategic transformation implementation of the integration plan is well under way. a complex process given the magnitude of the endeavor, and we remain confident in our ability to successfully execute our strategy >> reporter: cfo christine
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mccarthy saying that the acquisition of 21st century fox and taking control of hulu will have a dilutive impact on the fiscal first quarter of about $0.45 per share but staying they're on track for that to be in two earnings in fiscal 2021 igor stressing throughout his comments that the next leg of growth will be driven by the value of the new content library. >> we're also focused on leveraging fox's vast library of great titles to further enrich the content mix on our dtc platforms. for example, reimagining "home alone," "night at the miami," "cheaper by the dozen" and "diary of the wimpy kid" for a new generation on disney plus. >> the company saying that its streaming losses will rise to $900 million in the fourth quarter. i also want to touch on the lower-than-expected results at disneyland, the anaheim park
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iger saying there was so much concern about crowding around the "star wars" galaxy's edge land, that kep peopt people awae crowding concern and the fact that ticket prices were higher and hotels in the region raised their prices around the launch long term he said they're not concerned because guest satisfaction is high and they're looking forward to the launch of the second ride. the fact it opened with one ride may have also weighed on keeping the fans away. guys, back to you. >> julia, keep us posted on the conference call. julia boorstin in los angeles for us, at disney actually let's trade this this is tough because fox integration makes year-on-year comparisons difficult. studios, of course, "avengers" which was guy's favorite movie, which was released along "dark phoenix. you had "avengers" and the flop of "dark phoenix" which makes it tough. >> if disney didn't announce the
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12.99-bundle, i think the stock would be down more you have to admit the stock has traded remarkably well since the end of april when it traded up to 140, basically gone side ways, slightly higher ever since. what released recently was a dicey take the problem i have, continues to be -- and we can debate it, but at 22 times forward earnings with no real tremendous earnings growth, at least that i see over the next year or so, this stock is expensive by any metric you look at in my opinion. it is expensive up here. with that said, i never thought it would be up here in the first place. >> 12.99 is the same cost as netflix. >> look, i think it is a major competitor look, the fox content is something that's a complement to content that's -- there's a big argument outside of studio what they're doing that's of value. i think one of our guests coming on might have a view on that so we'll leave it for him my view is to address guy and the valuation. think of brands with no growth, coke, starbucks, disney has better growth. the bottom line is after april you have started to be able to
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value the company on a different multiple we talked about losses in investment, netflix doesn't make money. look at the multiple on that company. you should not be penalizing disney for investing in this part of the business i don't know how many subs they're going to pick up but at some point the street has to value this company differently, at 23 times which is a premium multiple to itself but nowhere near the big boys. this is an easy comp on the 20 numbers. >> i think the key question here is don't we need to give a streaming multiple for part of disney's business at this point? >> yes. >> what does it take disney up to >> i don't know. is it up to it already there's no question about it, remember how excited people got when they first announced and it was that 7 to 6.99 that was worth a lot of money to it i think it is disney, it is a premiere company it is a lumpy quarter. you never know with the merger that gives you a lot of opportunities to kind of, i don't know, play with expenses, charges, whatever. it is a premiere company though. the only thing that's not expensive compared to is
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netflix. it is not even obviously anywhere near remotely close to where netflix is trading i don't know i think they get a trade. >> i think if you think of netflix with 150-plus, you know, net subs or paid subs, you know, and you look at their conservative, disney's conservative guidance for the ott service and look at the bundle and think about the things, disney plus, espn and the integration of the assets and think about the ip coming off all of their competitors, i don't know how you know how to value this i will make one other point about hulu being in the bundle i think hulu is the answer to how to solve for livestreaming that's the one thing we have not seem on the platforms yet, and that will be really important as consumers start to cut the cord because that will be the missing piece. it is one thing to go back for guy to watch "avengers: end game" six times or something like that. it is another thing to get the live content that a lot of content creators are producing that's ee ferm ral that's the world we live in. to me that's the things you can't value. i find the bundle very
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compelling. >> when you say you don't know how to value it, you are saying it should be perhaps more valuable than we think >> yes. >> let me tell you this, november 12th there will be a launch a lot of analysts will jump over each other to make expectations about what they're going to do and not do the company told you it is going to cannibalize some of the tv business, they know that if you look at the estimates, that's why it looks expensive trading 22 times flat eps growth ultimately you should see this thing expand as earnings -- you know, as we get more earnings visibility over the next two years. >> let's get more reaction to disney results joining us is long-time media executive and "fast money" friend tom rogers. great to see you, tom. >> great to be here. >> what did you make of the quarter so far >> a lot we still don't know a lot we need to know, but this bundling thing is big news it really underscores what a big deal it was to do the deal with comcast that got them the rights to do bundling comcast had their hands around disney's throat. i'm still not sure why they let
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them off they didn't have to do that deal so quickly. >> with hulu, you mean >> what's that >> with hulu. >> yes with hulu, by doing this with hulu, effectively agreeing to pay for a third of hulu, they got rights to be able to bundle now. and with that they can put together a much more compelling package. we don't know the rest of the story here though. with the right to get hulu under their control, they got the right to take hulu international, play the real game netflix is playing, which is a big, global game, which is where the big multiple hundreds of millions of subs lie. that is a totally different expense game than the one they announced in april we didn't hear what they're willing to invest for that, what the cost of that will be that's going to change the whole break-even dynamic on the whole thing. the other thing we don't know yet is the decline of the traditional television business,
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hasn't really bitten disney yet in a big way we just had reported from at&t and charter and dish and comcast, the worst cord cutting quarter ever, terrible it only looks like that's going to accelerate. even when you take into account the so-called skinny bundles, bundles of skinnier packages that people are taking, you still are looking at about a 3% rate decline going forward when we got to 4% decline in traditional telephone service, we knew things were in trouble and it was going away. they've been able to cover that for the time being with rate increases and long-term contracts on espn and other things, but bottom line is when you lose 20 million subs from the traditional tv business over the next five years that are getting between the fox chance and the disney chance, 15, 16, $17 and you are making it up
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with $12.99, you have to do 25, 30 million subs on your streaming service at $12.99 just to break even. >> it almost sounds like because you're concerned about the expenses that they might have to outlay for international expansion that we don't really know how that business is going to shake out in terms of profitability. i mean the spin could far outweigh however many subs they get for $12.99. >> that is a concern look, with $40 billion in market caps going to this business since april, just to put in the media world context, $40 billion of market cap, that's cbs and viacom together, assuming they combined, plus some. so this is a lot of additional market cap with a whole bunch of questions we don't know the answer to. they're doing the right thing. >> right. >> streaming, transforming the company, but what the downdraft is, what the real risk is, we don't know a lot yet. >> and their package seems extremely competitive with netflix, at least in the pricing, in terms of what you get for the value of $12.99. but when it comes to some of the
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other dtc services yet to be launched like a comcast service, where does it put disney what happens to those players trying to get a streaming service off the ground themselves >> well, everybody is priced a bit differently. i think -- look, if you are hbo and you are trying to price at $16, $17 above where you are today and you've gotten -- it takes you 30 years to get to 38 million subs and you have had the mantle of the best programming around, saying you're going to charge $2 more a sub and put "friends" into the package against disney coming in at $12.99 with these three channels, that looks like a tough sell for hbo max so i think disney puts itself in a whole different position being able to bundle and price like this but before you get too excited about streaming, you have to consider just how much down side there is in the traditional business, and being with espn and how much of the bundle is dependent on espn, the number of
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subs that come off the traditional package for cable and satellite is going to define an awful lot of the shakeout of does the growth in streaming outweigh the decline in the traditional business. >> good question tom, thank you great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> tom rogers. >> stud. >> yes. >> tom rogers, not disney. >> i agree >> it is like a legend if there's a mount everest. >> like a pantheon of media analysts. >> and especially for us sitting here at cnbc. >> with that said, maybe comcast -- you know, i know exactly what tom is saying, but maybe comcast crunched the numbers and said, hulu is a bit of a loss leader, let disney have it at a price which they got. again, i'm not trashing disney here i just think it is expensive and they really have to execute on the whole streaming thing. other wise the multiple doesn't make sense. >> by the way, we will hear from disney ceo bob iger on cnbc tomorrow morning the market coming back after yesterday's sell-off one top strategist says you want
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stocks rebounding today after posting their biggest losses of the year yesterday the dow posting a 311 point gain do you buy into the turnaround tuesday or was it one giant head fake before we start this conversation, a show of hands from the desk. i'm just curious who thought today's bounce was a head fake raise your hand. >> initially. >> wow. >> uh-oh. >> yeah. >> in fact, let's call it temporary tuesday. >> temporary bounceback tuesday. why was it so unbelievable >> first of all, there was nothing structural that turned policymakers didn't panic. by the way, we're not sure if policymakers can do anymore. there's been a slight reassessment of what china is doing with their currency. look at the rest of the world. the deflationary spiral is with us if you thought that the bond move is -- by the way, having a trade perspective we had moments. i said in the last two or three weeks i think treasuries are overbought, but the bond market should have told you something
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different. >> that's the thing. look where the ten-year treasury closed at 1.7. we know people were calling the 2016 lows generational lows. they're going back there, you know maybe support at this point, but they're going back there what is the bond market telling you about growth versus the stock market that net is down less than 2% from, you know, last week or something like that to me that's really the dangerous situation, and i just have always been of the mindset -- i think guy is with me here -- that at this point in time, now that we are in a rate-cutting cycle, it is a cycle. it may not be great for risk assets like equities right now. >> karen >> i agree with what tim said. nothing new happened except the market did rebound when we think about turnaround tuesday, we think, all right, down big and then you see buyers saying, you know what, i know things are bad in the world, there's a lot of bear stuff you can point to, but here is value, i want to be out there and buy and it turns around. it started the day strong and ended up the day stronger.
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i find this day frustrating. puts come in i sold some puts in the morning, of course not enough then the longs are, okay, that's nice, but nothing is really different. i think there wasn't enough panic. >> you buy some volatility now. >> not yet it is like 21. >> it is elevated now. >> yes, it is elevated now. >> in terms of what we saw yesterday, overnight, we saw a low on the dow, down more than 600. >> we did. >> is it your inclination you want to see us test that before we go -- is that some sort of significant level to you >> i don't know if it is a significant level. i mentioned an s&p level, a 50% retracement, the recent high i thought yesterday's close were about 4% away. i still think we should see that one of the things i said last night, if you are bullish -- and this is counterintuitive -- you want the market to open in a crater-like fashion and recover the rest of the day. we didn't see it today to karen's point, it is a frustrating day. as much as you want to be
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bullish and believe yesterday was it, it doesn't feel right. >> let's bring in chris harvey, head of equity strategy at wells fargo. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> we couldn't see your hand, but it was up when i asked if it was a head fake. why do you think it was a head fake and how do you trade the market where you have down moves and then you have these bounces that you don't want to buy ultimately >> think it was a little bit of a head fake because technically you are not oversold at this point in time. what you have seen at the end of yesterday and of today, you saw passive flows come in. they wran the market up. all of the issues we were talking about, whether it is rates, whether it is trade and tariff, whether it is the fed, they are all still out there i think we have to watch that. i agree with guy you wanted to see a down take, you wanted to see that wash out and then you can start to lift it going forward we do -- to karen's point, we do find value the yield on the s&p 500 is now above the ten-year so every time you have seen that, longer term there is opportunity. in the short term we think you should probably pull back from
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here. >> in terms of sectors though, you do like semis and that's been one sector that was whipped around by the headline. >> certainly we have liked semis on and off and obviously trade and tariff doesn't help the situation but we find good value there and you can make money to the long side in the semi space. >> how would you characterize your position? i can't figure out if you are defensive or you have capital goods, diversified, financials, food, beverage and tobacco, and all semi so it is all over the map. >> we are well diversified that model portfolio is a high-quality portfolio and quality at the right price we are involved in tech, in software, in financials and consumer, but what we want to do is find good balance, and you can find good balance in the semis, in a lot of tnhe financials and in the cap goods around the world as well. >> how about what you are thinking >> with quality it pushes us into the united states, but we
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are on the value side finding more and more value in the european sector. so we're being very cautious in that regard, but we are starting to find at the margin more opportunity in europe. >> is there concern about europe the more china gets deeper and deeper into trade tensions and possibly the economy goes further and further south? >> absolutely. so if you look at a dax, a significant portion of revenue from the dax is supported by trade with china a lot of that china trade is related to autos, and so as auto slows down, as tariffs come in, you will see that trade -- you will see that occur. what we saw in earnings season is autos globally, it has been and continues to be a very difficult spot. >> chris, good to see you. >> thank you. >> chris harvey, wells fargo top performer in today's session, tech, a day after leading yesterday's sell-off how should you trade the tech turn around. let's go off with todd to see what he's looking at. >> let's look at xlk, the spotter that tracks the 100 --
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mostly 80% technology here so what we've seen is a nice approach at the 200-day moving average. it is the first thing, just below us it is right around 72 on top of that what we've seen is a percent decline less back here a couple of months ago, only about 12% decline, where so far we've done a 9% decline. setting aside the motion, the decline we've seen so far is not anywhere overbalancing, anything obnoxious compared to what we've seen in the past further, it is a new way to look at volume. let's take a moving average of volume typically on the xlk to see moves in the market we need to average about 15 to 20 million shares a day we are starting to move up to 10 to 12 million. i continue to need to see more volume, which i think we will be hard pressed to get in the middle of august so so far i think in xlk we look fairly supported two stocks that i like that i think held up relatively well in
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xlk is adobe, as two cloud plays i will pull up here. if i can do my best up trending line on the semi log scale, we held perfectly around 280. i think our risk is clearly defined if in fact this was a tradeable low. we have the 200-day you can use as a nice stop loss there. again, a nice risk to a good reward in adobe. next one, brought another cloud play staple in okay is microsoft. the exact up trend in support. this one is getting support -- this is actually the 50-day on microsoft, about $130 support is found. on the one stock that i would tell you that you have to wait on, i owned half a position in apple. i own full positions in those other two we just mentioned. here is the deal on apple. same kind of analysis. we obviously made a lower high back here, but trend line support is not there 200-day is not there i really want to see the 186 level here start to hold in apple. if you do break 186, there is
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significantly lower to go. i don't want to say it i don't want to take an attack on twitter here, but there will be significant lows. i want to see 186 play, so that's my kind of one waiting play the other thing i would say is guy mentioned the 50% retracement in the s&p we went up from the june lows and we just held that yesterday, a big swoosh, closed back above the 61% retracement, which is one of those fib levels. it is at 28.40 it was a key hold so everything looks garden variety in terms of a pull back. could get more, but so far it is nothing obsessive here, nothing excessive i should say. >> all right, todd thank you. todd gordon, tradinganalysis.com. dan, do you like or dislike any of the stocks todd talked about? >> i think it is interesting, the m in maga, microsoft obviously, it is a special stock relative to the maga cap names and has held the name. interesting, the alphabet, google, they never confirmed the highs made last year i will step on your nicely
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polished toes for a second, if you like alphabet after they reported a couple of weeks ago when the stock gapped up 10% and yesterday filled in the entire gap and today up about a percent, percent and a half, it is your opportunity to buy it because it is great support if you believe that the fundamentals carry through for the rest of the quarter. >> are you talking to tim or karen? >> really? >> mine are nicely polished. >> i don't know how you know about tim's toes, but up next we are rolling the dice and swiping right. we are dilling into wynn and match. if you are looking for yield, you are not finding it in the treasury market but we know where it is. we are going yield hunting that's ahead live from towns square in new york city, much more "fast money" right after this. ♪
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welcome back to "fast money" time for an earnings whiff shares of wynn resorts and match group both on the move after resulting results. full team coverage on both names. leslie picker standing by on mach, but let's start with contessa brewer on wynn. >> reporter: ceo is echoing what we've heard said, that the high rollers are not rolling so high. he calls the vip business choppy but he says it is episodic data points, not a long-term trend. the mass market gamblers are picking up the slack, up 20% in macau last year, and wynn is shifting focus from high-end junkets to concerts and other nongame offering to stay at the crystal pavilion analysts asked whether the trade war are affecting the scenario
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in macau >> and when you have hundreds of flights cancelled out of hong kong and some reluctance to travel, i do think that that is impacting the premium into the business however, that to me feels very temporary and has really nothing to do with our business and everything to do with what's going on in the region >> reporter: in las vegas a surprise win on baccarat, drop 16% versus the market up 11%, on domestic table games up 12% when the overall strip was down 6%. maddox said in fact for the first time in five years the revenue per available room in las vegas increased more than 9% david cakatz says of wynn's results they were a little mixed with macau below most estimates offset by las vegas. overall a pretty strong quarter. remember jeffries lowered their estimate on full-year growth on
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macau. while boston harbor was open for one week for the second quarter, they highlight that the completion of the encore boston harbor reduces near-term capital and improves discretionary free cash flow. it was clear from the call they have their work cut out for them in terms of breaking into the competitive slots market. >> contessa, thank you contessa brewer on wynn tim, i go to you is one that you -- i mean would you rather be in a more las vegas-exposed gaming name versus more heavily exposed macau name? >> the sicyclicality of macau hs been going on. i am not sure it is a massive trend, but ultimately we keep punishing wynn on the macau numbers where i think the stock has had four headlines in the last two weeks it just surprised me this stock tends to be more of a trade war proxy. it tends to be around $100, it is a stock that found a fair amount of support, call it, six months ago at the worst of the trade war.
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>> at the beginning of june, it was $100 july 25th it was trading 140, so it went up 40% in basically 4 1/2, 5 weeks, so a significant move now we're back to 110. i don't think it was disaster year over year revenue growth in macau was not great, maybe 1% or so. then you say, you know what? it is not crazy expensive on valuation, and if you don't think the world is blowing up in terms of the u.s./china thing, they could take another shot at the long side. >> it is not just the trade. it is tanks start rolling in hong kong and it is destroyed, literally the casino that is happening it looks like before we get trade clarity. so to me if you talk to people in hong kong, i mean hong kong is a massive through-way to macau. >> but those are overdone. >> right. >> but the point is i think it creates an opportunity because tech and tech proxy plays out of china, hong kong and even those -- >> but to my point, if there's a crackdown in hong kong, where do they go next it is macau. if you think about the
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democratic freedoms promised in hong kong, think about what goes on in macau. if they get hong kong under order, okay, then what happens next i mean you do not want to be in macau. that would be my guess. >> i don't -- the issues with macau historically have been about capital flight as far as i can tell. >> isn't it an issue right now too? >> well, we don't know i will say this, this is one of the reasons we don't need to have a macro conversation, but it is one reason i don't think china is going to play with its currency i think there's extreme value in that part of the world, you just have to buy it and stay in the pocket let's get to leslie picker with the details on match. >> reporter: beat on both the top and bottom line for match, but the tender segment sending it up nearly 18%, more than 18% as you see there tinder adding 1.5 million subscribers from last year, up 37%. match's subscribers overall were up 18% match rolled out certain features during the quarter such as safety features and read
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receipts on messages and the company is expanding internationally to help drive user growth. thanks to these forces, match is raising full-year revenue growth guidance to the high teens versus the mid teens previously. also, the company saying the back half of the year is showing, quote, meaningful acceleration in revenue and ebitda growth versus the first half match is hosting its first conference call tomorrow morning so we should learn more clues about what drove the results during the quarter not including the moftves, in t after market shares are up a whopping 70% already year-to-date, melissa. >> thank you, leslie picker on match group. karen. >> that kind of revenue growth is extraordinary, right. i don't remember exactly when it was that facebook threatened to have a competing product, a dating service that never came to be. the other thing to note about match, a short interest. you put up large numbers like this and if you are short, i don't know, you have to be somewhat concerned. >> do you swipe right or left on match? >> no comment, but clearly --
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>> no, on the stock. not the app. >> right means you like it, is that right i'm not sure -- >> it is sad. >> that revenue growth. >> i'm not sure. >> -- that you are excited about is in the tinder component but it is a company growing sales mid single digits, trading 10, 11 times i want to mention that the stock in november had a huge gap down to 40 after tinder results disappointed you have it down at 40 when it disappointed, you have it at 87 now. i don't think you chase it with that, because you are crawling all over to cover it from here stocks that trade at 87, where do they go to. >> 100. >> you just made that up. >> i don't know why it is. >> she knows. >> i only know what you tell me, which i'm not sure is right, but that's another story. >> very brave. >> coming up, biotech moving on the back of two major headlines. we will find out what is dragging these names down. must rideshare company lyft to report numbers tomorrow.
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alert on walgreens leslie picker has the information. >> reporter: they are closing about 2% of their u.s. stores. this comes after a review of their real estate blueprint. it should cost up to $3 billion worth of pretax expenditures but 80% should lead to future cash expenditures walgreens not moving too much in the after hours market on this news, melissa. >> thank you, leslie picker. drug stocks on the move of two big headlines. meg tirrell is back at headquarters with the moves. >> reporter: let as start with novartis that stock under pressure. concerning the swiss drug giant's recently approved gene therapy. the $2 million for the one-time treatment approved for a childhood data it is said that they manipulated
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data and that they knew about it months before the approval and didn't notify the fda until the drug was approved. the fda says the drug should stay on the market and is confident in its safety and efficacy, but it will investigate. there are several massive lawsuits moving forward seeing to hold zri accountable for the epidemic of opioids. it is reported they have offered to set with state attorneys general for $10 billion. the state ags countered with $45 billion. they all sank today as even the $10 billion starting point is more than investors expected shares of drug companies also dropped today. mckesson told us this afternoon it has made no settlement offer but as it explores the possibility it would want it to be a global one including not just the states but also local governments, cities and counties melissa, back to you. >> meeting on novartis, is that
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drop mainly because of concerns about the fall-out from an investigation versus the impact on sales of the drug itself? >> reporter: yes, most likely. it sounds like a situation where the, quote, unquote, coverup is worse than the crime the actual data that were manipulated don't look like they really affected a lot of what we know about the drug. it is just that this could cast doubt on all of the data that support the drug and the fda will be looking into this for a few months. >> shocking that they knew for months meg, thank you meg tir ril. guy adami, you first. >> yes. >> mck was cryptically a final trade. >> yes, they had a monster quarter and the stock did well now it is back down. 900 times forward earnings, yes, is the big headline. i get it but i think it is probably overdone quickly in novartis, you have to bring it up, $95 look at july 2015, see where the stock topped out at, see where it topped out recently you have tremendous headline rick here.
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if you are in novartis you are taking profits but i think it is too much mckesson to the down side. >> they are about 4% of the embedded value this news means almost nothing except it does cast a negative paul over the company. it is a coincidence, it is interesting back to the opioid thing, novartis is the company that did a deal with till ray, and obviously to the extent you are talking about -- >> just distribution. >> distribution deal, and we talked about the distributors who have effectively been the ones handing this stuff out. cannabis and opioids is one of the reasons for being and part of the reason people are excited about a lot of the companies that have huge valuations. >> well, excited because they think cannabis is an answer in some part to the opioid epidemic. >> yes. >> and i -- you know, to me there's no question about the efficacy of integrated medicine and how it has made progress, but it is not i think a place where the big pharma is ready to go just yet. but they're just waiting on a legal framework. >> right. >> if you don't think that these guys don't want to be in a place where they're actually helping an epidemic they helped to
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create i think, you know, you're crazy. >> in terms of the proposed or the reported settlement of $10 billion for all of the companies for state lawsuits, that's their opening -- if that report is correct, that's their opening sal vvo and it is more than expected. >> right. >> it seems a situation where you have the headline risk and there's no way to handicap what the outcome is. >> yes i don't know, maybe it is overdone a little bit but it is a big ask spread, right? 10 and 45. although if they were to have some global settlement, some clarity, you know, clarity is really valuable. certainty is very valuable but we're far from that it seems. >> all right coming up, shares of lyft going on a wild ride since its ipo we will tell you how the options market is playing lyft ahead of tomorrow's earnings. plus, we are going yield hunting. where you can still find yldie as treasuries rally. much more "fast money" right after this
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and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler. so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. welcome back to "fast money" lyft share's missing out on today's rally. the company gearing up for results after tomorrow's close what can you expect from reports? dan nathan has the "options action". dan. >> this is a tough one the company went public a few months ago, they had one quarter out of the gate, the stock traded down about 11% after the
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results. the absence market is implying about a 10% move in either direction, about 6.50. that's a pretty hefty implied move for a stock with such little history here. you know, look at that that's the one -- or the chart since the ipo. it has traded within a range of 78 on the upside right after the ipo, 48 to the down side the average price has basically been 61 bucks or so. it is trading a little bit below that, so obviously some support here there's the price of options, implied volatility that's why that implied move is so high because they're obviously pretty expensive here. i would expect it to come in afterwards if you are long on this stock or thinking about the $72 ipo price where you might have bought shares on the deal, the idea of selling calls against your long stock to add some yield above where the stock is trading makes a lot of sense, because if that stock moves less than the implied movement and you have sold out-of-the-money calls, option prices will come in and you will take in that premium. to me it is a lot of calls or option selling opportunities against long stock here. >> there are a lot of questions here in terms of the executive
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departures recently. >> john mcneil. >> the cmo left at the end of the second quarter why are these guys leaving after the ipo? >> that would concern me, which is why i think if the options come to fruition it favors the down side. but, you know, you are probably flipping a coin. if you made me play the game, which we love to play. >> play the game. >> would you rather. >> would you rather? >> i would rather play from the short side on earnings. >> what do you mean it is a different game >> it is what we do all day, buy and sell it. >> it is not really a game. >> sorry. >> we don't have to play -- nothing has to be a game, but -- >> you could make the argument, sometimes you have executives that stay until the ipo gets done, right? we don't want to ruffle feathers, stay until it gets done so that happens. >> a lot of the executives have been there and monetized and they're on to the next conquest. to be clear to expect -- unless you are the ceo, unless you're somebody it has been your baby and your vision, these departures shouldn't be, you know -- i what just be concerned
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this is a company i think is still working through these types of events and, frankly, i think there's some potential for disappointment on the announcement i don't know why i have to chase it. >> this tind of market environment where volatility is expected, do you want to be in this kind of stock >> ho, ho, ho, ho. >> that's a big laugh. >> i was not prepared for that question. >> really? why not? >> listen, if you are at the $100 table, we were talking about wynn before and you feel like gambling, i think this is stock. if you want to play from the short side into earnings, the answer is yes, given this environment and given the fact i think the market is a little rich here. so, yes, you do. >> can i play? >> yes, play. >> i would say no in this environment. anything that trades at a ridiculous multiple, right, where it is all about what -- >> doesn't make money, spending money. >> right no thank you for more "options action", catch our full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time take a look at the cramer cam. jim is siltitting down with etsy
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ceo. be sure to catch tt thaathe top of the hour. we're live from times square much more "fast money" still ahead. "options action" is sponsored by thick or swim by td sponsored by thick or swim by td ameritrade upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a k. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪ - when i see obstacles, i create opportunities. (soft music) - when i see adversity, i find a way. - when i hear never, i say now. - [announcer] southern new hampshire university is education made to fit your goals with over 200 degree programs, flexible class schedules, and some of the lowest online tuition rates in the nation. (cheering)
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money" the ten-year treasury yield hovering at multi-lows we hit dom chu hunting he is back at headquarters. >> reporter: when yields fall there's a reflex reaction to pay more attention to high-yielding flocks that flight to safety pushed yields on ten-year treasury notes below 1.75%. by contrast, the dividend yield on the broader s&p 500 stands around 2.048%. now, which top of dividend stocks are in focus? it has to do with a longer history of being able to sustain and grow dividends one group that gets attention is the s&p 500 dividend aristocrats, companies in the index that have grown their dividends for at least 25 straight years walmart currently has a dividend yield hovering around 28%, still up 15% as a stock year-to-date coca-cola is another stock in that mix as well
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the dividend yield there is over 3% at this stage it has a year-to-date gain around 10% then there are some of the beaten down names in oil and gas, but bloef it or not chevron is still up around 9% as a stock this year despite the down side in volt prices it carries a 4% dividend yield then the outsized ones around telecom names like at&t, a yield of over 6% at this point with a year-to-date gain of 18% melissa, if the interest rates continue to be under pressure or find themselves languishing at historically low levels, names like these could be where investors hunt for some of the income, but valuations always a concern. back to you guys. >> dom, thank you. dom chu. so what do you think of these names, tim i feel you are in a couple of them. >> i am. let me talk about chevron and at&t on chevron it is hard to get excited about energy calls i think we're oversupplied and i
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think it is up this year i think people recognize management's ability to do that. on at&t i think it is still a sum of the parts i think people underappreciate the pricing of this company -- the valuation of the company in a stabilizing results environment. the hbo max announcement, you know, tom referred to how difficult it will be for them on pricing, but that is a catalyst for this company nonetheless, i still think that at&t is a company if you look at the various components that they piece together, they're not getting credit. >> let's look at walmart for a second you know, obviously a lot of retailers are hit with trade fears right here, but it is a company with more than half of their sales come from groceries. they have issues obviously with transportation costs and some of the wage costs, that sort of thing, but to me i find this one pretty interesting not because of the dividend yield, but the stock broke out in june above 105. it was the prior all-time high it went up to 115, came back to the breakout level, found a
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little support that's where you want to start nibbling on a stock like this if you think they're somewhat immune to some of the headwinds that exist for retail stock. >> let's go outside of what mr. dom chu spoke of alt dib plays, karen, where would you go for yields? >> let me say i don't love the premise of going for yields, the tail wagging the dog i heard someone recently say bond are for capital appreciation now and stocks are for yield, which is the odd environment we're in but i look at my portfolio, i like walmart but jp morgan, right, they said they will increase their dividend next quarter. they will be a 3.75% yield and 10 in change times owning. i want to own it i know dan will give me a lot of feedback. >> not that one. that one's fine. own it all day, just sell the other ones. >> for me, jp morgan. >> i mean at a certain point it gets to the point of absurdity big short interest, i think macy's might be one. i am shocked, by the way --
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>> of what >> nathan and walmart. i mean you give me a hundred guesses -- >> he is shocking lately. >> shocking in a good way. i understand what tim is saying about chevron but it is not expense itch they're coming off a decent quarter given the environment, and the stock has been side ways in an environment where they could have gone lower. so i think receive rchevron is e >> up next, final trade. for your heart...
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quick check on disney on the back of earnings closed after hour sessions low, down by 3.6%. disney said it is suspending restock repurchases because it is in investment mode. we have an exclusive interview with bob igor, the ceo of disney, tomorrow on cnbc time for the final trade tim. let me reiterate at&t. it is not a reason to chase the stock as karen talked about. this is a company when yields go lower it outperforms. >> chairwoman. >> i find myself in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with dan. alphabet, i do like it i think it's a position if you go long it is the same as buying it. >> dan. >> i agree with tim on disney. i think if you buy it down at
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130, it is support -- >> is it concerning to tim >> by the way, i want to give tim -- >> time. final trade. final trade. >> the power pitch -- >> gw, look at that quarter. >> that does it for us "mad money my mission is sime to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now [ applause ] hey, i'm cramer. welcome to a summer on the street edition of "mad money." welcome to cramerica coming at you from the new yor
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