trade-affected services so tech and communication services interesting to see yield rebond. >> we almost in the dow made up all of the losses we saw yesterday. the nasdaq was the outperformer, closing up about 2%. we will see what happens with all of the macro stories that create the headlines moving markets. >> we will indeed. that does it for the "closing bell". "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money" i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk are tim seymour, mark stafford, chris berhe reason and dan nathan. break out the eggnog president trump saved christmas, stocks soaring after tariffs were delayed ahead of the christmas shopping season. everything rejoicing as video games, toys and clothes get a pass but wait oh the telltale indicator of global growth concerns, the grinchy

bond market barely budged today. was today's rally the last best chance to sell we don't want to rain on anybody's parade we are sure a lot of people out there are very happy that stocks rallied today, but at the same time for an asset class, the bond market that has moved so, you know, extraordinarily in the past week and a half or so, for it to barely move today, that's a head scratcher. >> first of all, let's be clear. love mariah carey whenever i can get her, especially in the heat of the august summer season. but what you are talking about is treasury is at three basis points we haven't been here since 2007. you have a dynamic with the bond market, long bond about to set historical lows. let's talk about the rest of the world. in germany there's zew economic confidence back in 2011 levels when we were talking about green chutes or so it seemed. if you think about the equity market's euphoria today and is it a gift from santa or truly just a reminder that the market is responding to headlines that

really are masking what is going on underneath the surface, maybe as a function of trade, look, that's where the bears are lining up. i think the bulls can say if you remove trade war and you actually had a dynamic where we felt comfortable that geopolitics as the trouble hot spots were not going to take the world down, that the economics for stocks right now in a low rate environment are not awful >> they're not awful, but we haven't removed trade war. we just said, you know what? we're going to delay trade war for now on certain goods. >> right so i mean the bond market is obviously much more rational than the stock market. the stock market's moving based off a tweet it seems like every other week the bond market, much more rational there's nothing that has changed on the trade front, right? i mean we just kicked the can down the road to basically save the holiday season the market is seasonally weak until october, and you asked the question is now the best time to get out or the last -- you know, the last time to actually exit stocks and then when you add in the fact, the 210 is close to

inverting, if that happens i think you see a full-blown algo sell-off. >> to be fair we have seen the 2.10 -- >> wait, guys. >> are you going -- sounds like dan will be the voice. >> mr. sunshine here. >> something constructive happened today by somebody saved christmas. guys, the president created this latest crisis out of whole cloth. >> it is not what we're talking about. >> on august 1st at 1:10 or 1:15 p.m. the s&p was at 1.5%, at all time highs at 3,000. all of a sudden we get a tweet about the extra 10% on 300 billion. this was created by them it was a crisis created by them and solved by them i think it is interesting that the s&p 500, while it did gap significantly today, closed well below those levels from august 1st. >> you know it hasn't been solved. >> of course not they created a crisis and they solved it and want to take credit for it. it is ridiculous. >> i think if you look at the message of the charts, has anything changed we are still in no man's lands

we have been sandwiched between last monday's low, the 52-day moving average, we failed there. i think you have to get above the 29.50 level to make the case something has changed over the last week or two if you look at the internals, bret baierly 2 1/2 to one. it wasn't that big, broad move you get coming off a good trade below. i think there's more work to do here to call the all clear i think it is premature. >> xlt was my final call yesterday, i said to sell it. >> a great today. >> it gapped up two bucks and closed up one. it is not a great day if you look at what happened in the broad market the s&p closed up 1 1/2% bank of america closed up 30 bits. both closed below 1% on the day. that's not great strength to me. as you head into retail earnings in the next week or two and get disappointing earnings, they're giving it all back it was a bad setup as you get the bounce into earnings and if they don't confirm it, i think to me there's plenty of pockets

to risk. the fact we didn't close about 2950 is a problem, too i think rallies are sold here. i think people got off sides. >> i'mglad you brought it up because best buy was your final trade yesterday, tim, be a seller part was because of the trade war. does it encapsulate the danger of trading on the headlines, the trump tweet, the assumption tariffs would go into effect september 1st which they're apparently not going to. >> let's be clear. i will address your point of a bad final trade of mine last year we got core cpis were up more importantly, for a lot of the retailers, and i think we will hear it from walmart, so back to best buy best buy, who effectively is importing all of this stuff from asia is in a very, very difficult position for a company that to me has gone through both just the whole stek secular shift in the business model and where amazon has wrecked them, the reliance on

that part of the world is unlike any other big box retailer in the word look, they already gave guidance the last round of earnings knocked it down. it is a company to me when it trades cheap, it will trade even cheaper. as we all agree on the desk, nothing happened today a 7% spike in something like best buy to me tells you just what kind of anxiety there is in that business model. >> and we sit here, this is a big moment there's trade, there's hong kong, there's brexit, there's argentina and we have the s&p off 3 from the highs is that enough if you put it in context over the last six or seven months, maybe it is enough, right? every single time it has been bought. >> enough to get you back to the prior hide and maybe trade 1% or 2% above it, because as we talked about last night, since january 2018 when we had the blow-off top after the tax cuts in late 2017, we have basically just made three incremental new highs and it is not enough we flush after all of them the biggest one was 3% above a

prior high. >> so what's the lesson of today's action to you, to sell this and then -- >> i think so. >> -- buy pull backs >> what happens to this, mel, let's say the call with the chinese doesn't go well, let's say they don't come to washington in september, we have another tweet, the problem i see is the tit for tat thing, the risks for an accident increasing dramatically people forget the market sold off 20% in 2018. i think there's a dip that you may not want to buy in the not too distant future, especially given all of the uncertainty we have right now. >> chartist, what is the message of the chart in your view? >> the message is nothing has changed over the last week, week and a half. >> okay. which means? >> i think we have to look at the move as no one is getting paid bulls aren't getting paid here bears aren't getting paid here we need resolution here. >> all right so is the bond market telling a different story with the ten-year yield barely budging on

news of the tariff delay let's bring in jim bianco. thank you for being with us. we had extraordinary moves in the bond market, particularly when you look at the ten-year yield and 30-year yields as well today we had a risk on equities and we had a bond market that didn't move too much what is your takeaway? >> i think the stock market as you guys were talking about a minute ago is all about trade and it is all about tariffs and all about saving christmas but if you look at what the bond market has been doing, it habit been about trade has been about a global slowdown that started well before august i 1. it has accelerated through the fed meeting when paul did not deliver 50 and did a mid cycle adjustment the y50e8d curield curve has be inverted since may and the w0rorld numbers from global growth are slowing dramatically almost half of the world are at negative interest rates, x the united states. the bond market is sending a

clear message. there's a slowdown around the rest of the world. trade was probably a piling on penalty, but removing that will not remove the fact that the world is slowing down. that's what bond are reacting to, and it is sending a message that the funds rate is too high through the three-month tenure the fed is slow and it is getting worried we will have a mistake. >> it is still a barometer of global growth concerns at this point, but does the fact that the tariffs are -- some of the tariffs have been rolled back at least until december 15th, does it put a different floor under the ten-year yield for instance? i mean when so many people were saying a test at 135, the prior low, was in the cards, does that view change do you think >> i don't think it changes a whole lot. what you really need is, look, if you really want to talk about global growth, we really have got to go to what's happening in europe i know tim mentioned the zw index, the lowest since 2011 it was not a good time in 2011

the german production numbers were an absolute disaster last week, minus 5% year over year. the only time that happens is when they're in recession. a lot of people are looking at europe and saying, it is not are they in recession, it is how bad is the recession we are looking at japan and saying they can't get out of their own way and they're going to raise taxes and we already have negative gdp numbers for third and fourth quarter estimated out of japan this is the problem the bond market is seeing we look at the naunited states n we see it is okay, but around us is where the problem is. >> jim, it is tim. i agree with you on europe we have talked about that. at what point do you think -- because did fed pivoted, the fed made an adjustment, the bond market has been cut in half. at some point the leading indicators that were leading us 18 months ago to where we are today, does the global die nami -- dynamic tell us we are supposed to go lower from here

because we made a massive adjustment and as scary as it is to look at global interest rates where they are, and we could still say we're still in 2018, this is something we are slowly healing on. >> i think when you look at the bond market, you're right. it has made an adjustment around the rest of the world. that's why half of the yields are negative, but the u.s. has been slow. the only thing that's come close to the all-time lows is the 30-year. it essentially touched it today for the first time so our bond market is now the problem we face, is it is out of line you know what one of the highest interest rates in the developed world right now is it is the funds rate at 2 1/8. only the 30-year and 15-year italian yields are higher. everything else is lower that's never been the case that the funds rate has been that much an outlier. i think the bond market is looking at the slow stuff. yes, you could probably make the case we are closer to a yield low around the rest of the world, but in the u.s. it looks like it is early innings for

rates to fall because we're so far behind everybody else. >> jim, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it jim bianco of bianco research. i don't know if you guys saw the bloomberg article reporting on former fed chairman greenspan is opening the door to the possibility. >> the irony of the guy that might have opened the door in the first place. >> that is true. >> you know, is it the top in bond prices we've seen over the last 48 hours, jp morgan, pimco call for negative yield in the u.s. let's think about it what is not as dominant as expected with bond yields going from 2 to 1.60 over the last month? staples have been okay, not great. shouldn't the groups have been more dominant if yields continue to move lower. gold stock was hit very, very hard today i'm curious if we're at an

inflexion rates. >> i think it makes sense to maintain a defensive posture right now. when i say defensive i'm not necessarily talking utilities and consumer staples but more so within tech. we like tech i would rather be software over semis. companies like salesforce, adobe, and health care is a sector that has not performed well. >> at all. >> at all, and it has been in my opinion unfairly punished. there's great med tech companies out there like intuitive surgical, add it labs that are absolutely crushing it and not getting any appreciation. >> coming up, shares are getting burned on earnings one top analysts will break down tilray and tell us what it means. he will tell us what the stocks to take us higher are. live in times square in new york city, more "fast money" right after this

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xfinity mobile is a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. click, call or visit a store today. ♪ welcome back to "fast money" we've got an earnings alert. shares of tilary trading at after hours lows let's get to aditi roy in san

francisco with the details. >> melissa, shares are down more than 7% now. tilray has been making investments at home and abroad the company says the investments are resulting in big top-line growth, which it projects will continue total kilograms sold more than tripled to more than 5,500 kgs from last year gross margins increased to 27% quarter over quarter the company said the gross margin continues to be impacted by increased cost by ramping up cultivation facilities in canada and portugal the ceo was just on our air telling cnbc they don't want to miss out on growth opportunities at home or abroad. >> i think if the way we look at it is it is early days weerks are continuing to invest to build long-term value for our shareholders if we looked at individual countries like canada, for

instance, we could be profitable there within -- within two quarters but when we look at one of the larger markets such as europe, it is still opportune time to invest. >> some other company highlights tilray has increased cultivation space in portugal and canada and entered the sut cbd market with a hemp product from manitoba harvest. bret cooper from consumer ed says we continue to believe that profitability for tilray is a ways off back to you. >> aditi, thanks let's trade this before we get to that, a quick disclosure tim has a cannabis cnbts tilray is a component of it. all of our components are listed on cnbc.com. two quarters, profitability in canada. >> if they choose to look, kennedy has done a

fantastic job of positioning the company with very impressive jv partners, whether it is abi, whether it is novartis, whether it is manitoba, whether it is authentic brands the reason we have an underweight position in the fund relative to market cap in the industry is they're not doing anything in canada they're not necessarily growing. in fact, they're a distant, probably fourth or fifth player. i think on the margin side, the path to profitability is still unclear. while these relationships with the company i think are very important and they provide optionality, and i think it is a name because as part of an overall portfolio you should have exposure to, but it is hard to see where people are competing with the things in canada and to the consumer. >> let's get more to the quarter and bring in rob wertheimer. great to have you with us. you have been negative since may and that's the context of the comments here. what did you make of the

quarter. looks like they spent a lot to expand facilities. >> yes, they did i didn't think the quarter was all that bad at first glance there's a couple of things happening. i think the cannabis market is transitioning to, you know, a hope and a dream, to let's see what we can actually deliver on results. we have seen that in the stock price over the last few months the results have a couple of components on the revenue side tilray did pretty well. they were selling more product, i think volume was up 85% quarter over quarter year over year there's a difference in the market, but the last quarter is pretty good growth pricing was weaker than we thought and it is a bit of a concern, but on the revenue side they're actually doing okay. as you mentioned and your reporters showed, you have had some investment and that's fine. i think it is hard to really predict an ending coming with a great position in the industry that is highly transitional. the margin is weaker, maybe yeah, but overall the revenue was not so bad. >> when you look at markets beyond canada, rob, which were

the important markets for tilray to really serve? >> yeah, what day is it i guess? they're doing a good job trying to expand, as you know, into the u.s. when the u.s., you know, sort of sorts out the various complications on what we can do with cbd marketing, whether you can have it for consumption or just for topicals or whatever, so that's obviously the biggest and most important market. tilray is planting a bunch of flags in europe where it is lagging the u.s. in the legal environment and we'll sort of see how much it pays off in near term. >> there's so many stocks, rob, where you sort of say this company is in growth mode, so it is going to spend money in order to grow and it is going to spend money in order to grow revenues. why isn't that the case for cannabis stocks or is it and it is not for tilray this quarter >> i think to be fair, i think it is the case. >> okay. >> i think that, you know, they have grown revenues. i think that's good. i think that they've had this strategy a little more of trying to source in product in the wholesale market and for

whatever reason the industry hasn't delivered as much as it could have over the last few months so they lagged a bit. it is a fine strategy just had some tightness, so they're coming along the markets are not what they will be at maturity and that's not a real focus the focus is are they getting the brand out there, putting it on shelves and are consumers liking it. >> the nextquarter or the next maybe after that will be more tricky, when you laugh comparison for use of marijuana for adult use in canada. is that a concern for you? >> it is a fair point. that's one reason we didn't look at the year over year right now because adult use wasn't legal in canada a year ago but quarter over quarter they're selling more product and that's a good thing the thing we have a concern with is that -- so canady hada had a staggered approach to utilizing and some edibles and consumer vaping is not yet legal. i think there's a hope in the market it will be transitional

when it comes online and we're more skeptical how fast it will bring in new users that consume a lost that's a concern for 4q and onward. >> aurora cannabis by the way is overweight for rob where do you see it going? >> every rally for the better part of the last 12 months it has been sold. if we see a trend change here we have to hold recent lows the stock prints down after hours. 39.50 is the july 30th low that has to be held if the stock is going to start the process of putting in some type of a bottom. >> listen, in the last five years we have seen so many mini bubbles. >> mini bubble. >> we have every single one popped. this one, if you look at tilray, it popped. >> it was unique because of the first u.s. ipo, the liquidity of dynamics, it squeezed up to $300 on that alone.

you are right in terms of bubble issue bubble-icious. >> if i were to invest in this space i would spend time like you. but buying one of the companies i don't think anybody can value them given the market caps they have and the regulatory headwinds which are unknown. we are talking about canada, canadian usage in canada it may never come federal here in the u.s. and you will be sticking -- tilray is like the options market you have theta that decays, decays, and that's what is going on, like tilray right there. >> i will say this valuation at 22 times 2019 eb to sales, it makes no sense dan is right to push back on it. i would say regulatory is probably a tail wind for the sector, even though it is a complex regulatory environment if anything, there's a lot more doors to be opened than to be closed. >> maybe. >> and i think what they're doing in places like germany, i

don't think tilray is a name you go bonkers on. i think what you do is look at companies with facilities with gmp certification and can get into places that are growing markets and that's why you do your work. >> head over to cnbc.com for more on the quarter. here is what else is coming up on the show. i'm melissa lee with "fast money" a tech turn around apple soaring today as the u.s. takes a tariff time-out. is it an all-clear for the tech titan? first, hungry for yield? we found four names to feast on. we're serving them up when "fast money" returns - stand up if you are first generation college student.

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welcome back to "fast money" it was the day for the bulls on wall street, stocks surging after the u.s. delayed some tariffs on china, but trade tensions are far from gone with four ways to protect your folio from further damage, let's bring in ted walsh he has $1.4 billion in assets under management great to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> what is your general market view at this point has anything changed >> you notiknow, i started in 1 and two phrases get my attention. one is the sec is launching an accounting inquiry into a firm for irregularities but the other big one is troops are massing at the border there's a lot of issues out there notwithstanding today's wonderful relief rally i look at the ten-year at 3.2 last year. we were worried about it going to 3.4, 3.7. flash forward one year later we are at 1.7 growth prospects are murky at best and the market is still at the exact same level it was at one year ago today, at about

2,900. what is going on we have a feedback loop between the fed, the real economy, trade wars at the white house, and it is keeping it in suspended animation. we think it is probably not going to be resolved any time soon so what alpha cubed investments we have been steering our investors in a different direction all year you might remember on my last visit i was talking generally about value, but now we're lasered in on a certain type of company, companies that are u.s. based, large cap, value-based company, companies with below-market metric, cash per share, revenues per share, but higher than average dividends, 2.5, 3% kind of thing with sustainability, good payout ratios. >> we have picks you like, verizon, met life, johnson & johnson. we can see that the yields are greater than the overall yields right now. i want to ask you on specific ones. >> sure. >> ups, it has had difficulties

and is exposed to global slowdowns. why would you pick that? >> u.p.s. came out with a good earnings report a couple of weeks back, probing the 120 area and with the dividend at 15 times multiple we think they will do well in these environments we think this class of investments will act like an atm for investors. to paraphrase the late, great ross perot, we may hear a giant sucking sound of money into the sector where it is well treated. >> johnson & johnson has litigation risk involving talc i wonder how you handicap that >> definitely a headwind for the company, but on the other hand the leader, a diversified health care company paying 15 times multiple, this is one of the two companies still rated aaa by s&p. the other being microsoft, paying dividend since 1963 it is a high quality company and we think they will do well. >> todd, great to see you. todd walsh of alpha cubed

investments. >> appreciate it. >> which do you like or maybe you don't like any >> i do. i like verizon and johnson & johnson. i think if you break down the arguments about the scariness out there, the sickly cality of u.p.s. and met life, those are sectors i don't want to be in. but johnson & johnson in terms of their pharma bucket, they have growth of 8 to 9%, which is better than the pharma peers. >> marc? >> we own verizon, we own johnson & johnson, we did own met life until a couple of months ago we sold it and moved the money into progressive i think there's better opportunities within auto insurance right now. the vehicles are more safer today with adaptive cruise control, autonomous driving. all of that stuff is going to reduce accidents, but at the same time premiums won't be reduced dollar for dollar. >> u.p.s. stands out to me as something quietly getting better with no attention. this stock went from 140 to 90 the bear market happened good earnings, the stock

responded. we love stuff that goes up on bad news this one is quietly getting better and it speaks to a world on fire. the truckers are getting quietly better maybe the market has discounted a lot of the problems out there. >> as todd said, speaking of ross perot and sucking, verizon unchanged on the year kind of sucks. but at&t quietly up 22% on the year breaking out of the massive downturn it has been in since the highs in 2018. this looks more constructive and higher yield. >> i love it, too. coming up, sending shares of apple soaring but is it the all-clear for the tech giant later. tensions flaring in hong kong again today. how the markets are navigating wl turmoil. weiltake you live to the region much more "fast money" right after this

welcome back to "fast money" check out shares of apple, surging nearly 5% today, the best day in more than three months the tech titan getting a huge boost from news the u.s. will delay some tariffs on chinese goods until mid-december how much higher can apple run in the meantime this is certainly a sigh of relief until december 15th. >> you think in market terms how

much the cap rallied in a short period of time, it was crazy you have to think about before august 1st before the tweet came out, apple was trading at $220 the company gave better than seasonal guidance for the quarter. interestingly enough, the stock was unchanged before the announcement about the trade no doubt this morning, saying july saw a massive bounceback in iphone shipments in china for apple and it was interesting because it would support the thesis of the better than expected guidance. this one to me i think obviously could get to the highs post earnings in a market that's stable, that doesn't have the tariffs coming. >> i could see it going as high as 240 by end of the year. there's three main growth drivers for apple. number one, you have the 5g phone which doesn't hit until 2020 you have wearables you know, they're doing really well with the watch, the air pods but in my opinion, the most important really is their shift towards services, right? high margin, recurring revenue services and they've been doing really well there as well. >> tim

>> look, i'm long apple and i'm an investor in apple you have heard me say i think the multiples should be a blented multiple, has this thing significantly higher i think in the short run there's little for me that says this gets away from me. at the risk of turning it into an "options action" show, i think you should be selling covered calls here, one to two months tops. i don't want to mess around with the holiday season i don't want to mess around with anything beyond a lot of seasonal volatility in the name. there's no way it gets away from you in the next six weeks. on a day when it spiked up 5%, it is a nice time to sell to upside. >> you want to own the stocks? >> if i get called away at 220 where i sold the things, it doesn't bother me. >> we will get an announcement of when the new iphones rollout will be in september maybe you see a higher end phone at some point in november. you know, those tend to be kind of sell-the-news sorts of things, especially if they rally into it. to your point, i think if you get to the post earnings highs near 220, it could be a great

opportunity to overwrite your stock by selling calls against it. >> it is not just trade news boosting apple, the technicals pointing to a possible breakout. that could sell good news for some of the most important suppliers. off the charts chris, we will send you to the plasma to do your thing. >> i think what is remarkable about the stock, it is august 13, 2019, the stock trades 209 that's precisely where the stock traded on august 13th of 2018. we are unchanged, 209 today, 209 precisely 12 months ago. let's take a little bit of a longer look out and get an idea of where we are. i think what is interesting about the chart here over the last couple of years, we're at this point where resolution is coming we have had these seers of higher lows over the last six or seven months and we had the series of higher lows over the last several months. which way does this break? i think ultimately up. that 215 level has been a big, big number for a long time i have actually been impressed

even before today how well the stock has acted despite the headwinds that are out there now, i want to take a longer look at apple. this is over the last 12 years what's been so remarkable about these drawdowns is the symmetry. 2007, 2008, from high to low to high, about 90 weeks 2011, 2012 into 2013, high, low, high, about 95 weeks very similar in 2015, 2016 high, low, high, 93 weeks. we're about 60 weeks into this right now from the high last year to where the stock trades today. so maybe there's more time in front of us, but i do think ultimately as we learned in '08, '11, '15, '16, the stock tends to resolve higher. we think ultimately it breaks out. how about the ecosystem? are there names related here we can get exposure to? micron is another one in the semi space that acts okay despite all of the headwinds

we have had just recently the 50-day average break above the 200-day, so the trend environment here is starting to get a little bit better. in other words example, texas instruments, txn, a stock that only recently broke out of an 18-month base. so are some of the semis beginning to lead what apple may do from here we love txn. i like how it consolidated above the 50, above the 200. there's been no damage done here over the last several weeks. and then, lastly, srus, cirrus logic, another big provider mere, one with a big turning here you had the bear market. the stock has bottomed over the last six months, again, up above the 200. the trend environment has gotten better i think you buy consolidations here i think ultimately a micron, a texas instrument, a cirrus is sending a message that apple will resolve higher, not lower. >> chris, why don't you come

back over. micron, i would be concerned it is still swept up in huawei concerns because it is a major huawei supplier. >> again, micron is one of the names that tends to overshoot in either direction we know what the headwinds are to their core business in terms of pricing on d ramp if you think where the street got to it in valuation, it probably got too cheap you had a massive rally and you are stuck in some cyclical and specific trade issues that will not resolve any time soon. i don't know why you chase it. >> if apple goes to 240 as you think, do you like the suppliers? >> i don't i don't. >> why not >> we have very limited exposure to the chip stocks we do own broadcom i like broadcom because in my opinion it is a more defensive semi with its building -- it is building out software exposure within the company we like nvidia which gives us growth to the high-end markets such as autonomous vehicles, gaming, dating, though things we want to play. >> you know, it is one of the

best-looking charts in the whole market it actually under performed the smh for a good part of the last year and a half. 120 was the line, rejected on numerous occasions here is the thing about the guidance they gave in late july. it wasn't even that good, it just wasn't as bad as feared that had a 7% gap. i think holding 120, that thing looks like a good floor for it. >> say it one more time for viewers at home. one of the best looking charts in the market. >> no doubt about it one of the best looking charts in the market. >> that's so rare because it is usually the worst looking charts in the market. >> that's my line is what you mean to say. >> i think we need to take in this moment. >> taken in. retail back in fashion, posting one of the best days one big name gears up to report results tomorrow we will breakdown the action plus, hong kong protests rehi a bacngoiling point we will tell you what it means for the market much more "fast money" right after this hold firm, bear it all.

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welcome back to "fast money" it has been a rough year for retail, but check out the xrt, the etf that tracks the space, having its best day in more than two months after the u.s. delayed some tariffs on certain chinese good but options traders are betting the retail rally could get cut short when one big name reports results tomorrow

mike khouw is in san francisco with the action. what are you looking at? >> we are looking at macy's, a name that moved 7.5% on average, implying a move of about 9% right now. it may seem it is bigger than average, but i think it is worth considering the stock has fallen sharply. as it has done so, the equity will become more volatile because the rest of the balance sheet hasn't been shrinking. you have a lot of debt here. i think somebody might be looking at that because we saw the september 27, 18.5/16-put spread trade 250 times, the buyer paid $0.70 of those. the buyer is betting on a decline of as much as 18% by september 27th, which is 45 days away it is important to pay attention to stocks like this that have declined considerably, you are actually adding leverage to the equity you have to price it into the options. here i think actually, even though it is an above-average implied move, given that fact i think the options are cheap

going into earnings right now. >> mike, thanks for that mike khouw in san francisco. for more "options action", check out the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, protests in hong kong flaring up again today we will tell you how the flash could hit the open in asia we're live straight ahead. look at cramer cam jim is breaking down what to buy following today's rally. that's coming up on "mad money" at the top of the hour we're live at the nasdaq market in times square. more "fast money" still ahead. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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♪ welcome back to "fast money" we're continuing to follow a man major developing story out of hong kong. tensions flaring once again as police in riot gear clash with demonstrators at hong kong's main airport we are getting fresh comments from the white house we go to eamon javers with the latest. >> reporter: we have a statement from a senior administration official on events in hong kong, saying in part freedoms of expression and assembly are core values that we share with the people of hong kong and these should be protected. the united stat

the official -- some of the comments the official gave us yesterday saying that the united states continues to monitor the situation in hong kong and urging all sides to remain calm, safe and peaceful. quoting the president here as saying the president has said they're looking for democracy, and i think most people want democracy. but a new and unequivocal denial from the united states that the u.s. has anything to do with the protests going on in hong kong, melissa. >> can the statement though live side by side, you know, to president trump's comments earlier that this is really a matter for china to deal with? >> well, the president has said that and he's also been tweeting about this today the president suggested that u.s. intelligence had some evidence that chinese troops were massing on the border of hong kong earlier today in a tweet. the white house has not provided detail to back up the tweet. they haven't briefed us on intelligence the u.s. has. all we have to go on now is that tweet. the president also suggested in a tweet earlier today that people are blaming him and the united states for events in hong kong i sort of dismissed that suggestion in the tweet earlier.

now we have sort of a formal denial here from a senior administration official saying the united states rejects the notion it has anything to do with this. >> all right eamon, thank you eamon javers for us in washington >> you bet. >> the protest playing out a big way in the asian market. hong kong's index hitting the lowest level since the start of the year let's go live to singapore with the latest, sri jegarajah. >> yes, let me pick up on what eamon was saying therenprecedenl of political risk emanating frol resembling that of caracasr a second day and flights delayed. this is not a localized risk anymore. this is now having global repercussions on sentiment, and the next big risk, of course, is if beijing says enough is enough these protesters have crossed a

red line and the people's liberation army is deployed. we're not there yet though, but if that situation does happen, if the chinese military does intervene in hong kong, then you can bet there will be widespread international condemnation and this takes the situation to an entirely new dimension so summing up, risk on for now because we are inheriting something of a turnaround tuesday, your side, in your markets. that should offer something of a respite to us, but you have to bet that a lot of risk still remains on a global basis, on a regional basis as well we continue to be at the mercy of the trade-related headlines there's still a big drag from all of the uncertainty, trade-induce it uncertainty. and, of course, add to the wall of worry you have a lot of ideo

sin cr ideosyncatic risk and the risk in hong kong became global right now. thank you. >> thank you tim, obviously if you are invested in the etf, etm, you have to be worried if you are in fxi. you have to be worried how did it become a tradeable event at this point? >> well, by the way, in singapore, remember from the perspective, hong kong's loss is a regional gain. 40% of china, over 60% of it is asian. in fact, the irony is when we hit the blow-off top in january of 2018, that's when you got a heavier weighting. it was the last peak in emerging markets effectively, making nine year lows on a relative basis to the s&p continue to look weaker here on a relative basis in the short run if you had a trade war, you know, everything was hunky dorie and you had the santa claus, em is oversold here again, in relative terms it is

it is difficult to see when you look at the global growth dynamics and the trade protectionism all over japan and south korea in a spat. the only good news for em is where there used to be historically inflation issues and dollar issues, you don't see that right now. >> sri made a good point in that asia tomorrow may not be a good tell because it is inheriting what we did in united states but let's say you wake up at 7:00 in the morning, what do you look at? you think you want to look at chinese equities obviously hong kong is important. back in 2015 when we had similar volatility emanating from china, you know, the shanghai interestingly had gone from 2,000 to 5,000, the composite. it is not moving around the wray it is. it is below 3,000, that sort of thing. i don't think a great tell i think the chinese have done a good job holding the equity market kind of stable. they're not the onesieing a lot of volatility coming from one way or the other a lot of listed stocks are

moving around a lot. >> what is on your screen at 7:00 a.m.? >> first thing i would look at is hallie baba it is a company we own with alibaba you are getting part amazon, part paypal and grubhub. >> quick, on yours >> i think what are the related trades be careful with european luxury stocks, lmah, those have been ed to that over the last couple of years. there's probably some risk there. >> up next, final trades - stand up if you are first generation college student.

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final trade is sponsored by -- back for the final trade tim? >> we talked about some other names like this one, at&t fits that yield mode. it is not why you own it hbo max, different drivers here. lower rate investment. yes. >> mark tepper. >> green thumb it is a multi-state operator without legalization they have the opportunity to quadruple revenues over the course of the next two years and the ceo is great grandson of the guy that navigated jim beam through prohibition, who better? >> christopher verrone. >> dr horton is one of our favorite just broke out great relative strength. i think you own here. >> dannathan >> i'm going with a verrone stocky think is really one of

the best looking charts in the market at the moment here is the big kicker. >> okay. >> earnings weren't fantastic, just good enough and the stock gapped up. i think you use 120. >> that does it for us see you back tomorrow at 5:0 my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all invelstinvesters i always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you mind -- find it now. hi, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica my job is not just to entertain, but to educate, teach and put days like today into context call me or tweet me @jimcramer should it bother us, should it bother us that the presi