i think the word recession is a word that is inappropriate it's just a word that the certain people in the media are trying to build up because they would love to see a recession. we're far from a recession in fact, if the fed would do its job, i think it would have a tremendous spurt of growth tremendous spurt the fed is psychologically very important. less so, actually, but very psychologically important. if the fed would do its job, which it's done poorly over the last year and a half, you would see a burst of growth like you've never seen before that would be lowing interest rates and maybe putting some -- if you look at what china is doing. if you look at what germany is doing. if you look at what so many countries are doing. putting some money in because we want to compete with these other countries. so i think that we actually are set for a tremendous surge of growth, if the fed would do its

job. that's a big if, frankly the fed should be cutting. i would say they should say at a minimum $100 basis points. over a period of time. not at one time but over a period of time >>well, i'm not talking about doing anything at this moment, but indexing is something that a lot of people have liked for a long time. and it's something that would be very easy to do. a lot of people have been talking about indexing for many years. and it's something that i am certainly thinking about i can say a majority of people they like indexing it's something i'm thinking about. payroll taxes i've been thinking about payroll taxes for a long time whether or not we do it now or not is -- it's not being done because of recession

we're legitimately, if we had a cut in interest rates by the fed, if they would do their job properly and do a meaningful cut, because they raised toovz, you would see growth like you've never seen in this country if you go from the election, the great november 8th day, if you go from november 9th to present, you are talking about almost a 60% increase in the stock market unemployment numbers that are lowest in history. and overall almost the lowest ever in the history of our country. i think it was 1969 and we're set to surpass that number our country is doing very well when i spoke to the president, we were just walking in and he said congratulations on the great success of your economy and your country i appreciated that but our country is looking very

well. >> it's something we'll talk about. >> it was the g8 for a long time and now it's the g7. a lot of time we talk about russia we're talking about russia because i've gone to numerous g7 meetings, and i guess president obama -- because putin outsmarted him, president obama thought it wasn't a good thing to have russia in. so he wanted russia out. i think it's more appropriate to have russia in it should be the g8. a lot of things we talk about have to do with russia i could see it being the g8 again. if somebody would make that motion, i would be disposed to think about it favorably

as you know, for most of the time, it was the g8 and included russia president obama didn't want russia in because he got outsmarted well, that's not the way it really should work [ inaudible question ] >> yeah. [ inaudible question ] >> a lot of time on it we spent a lot of time discussing it already. our countries have been discussing it and we're going to -- we're taking it up today in an important meeting after this do you like the idea it's something we're thinking about. >> reporter: has the white house contacted m contacted maduro regime? >> we're talking to various representatives of venezuela we're helping as much as we can. we're staying out of it but we're helping it it needs a lot of help

it's an incredible tribute to something bad happening. and something bad is socialism it's amazing because 15 years ago, it was one of the wealthiest countries and now one of the poorest it has oil reserves, it has a lot of things going but it's a sad thing what happened. they don't have water or food. we're helping a lot. we're talking to the representatives at different levels of venezuela, yes i don't want to say who but we're talking at a high level. >> a deal with boris johnson >> i spoke with boris johnson, i think he's going to be a great prime minister i think he'll do a fantastic job. i've known him a lot of people know we have a good relationship. i think he'll be far superior. he'll do something that will be a very -- i think he's going to be important for the uk. i think he's going to be very important. dealing with the european union,

i hate to say this to you, but dealing with the european union is difficult they drive a hard bargain. they're represented by jean claude who is is a friend of mine but he's a tough man. a great negotiator we have all the cards in this country. all we have to do is tax their cars and they would give us anything we wanted because they sent millions of mercedes over they send millions of bmws over. but we're talking to the european union we're going it see if we can work something out i will say this, dealing with the uk, they have not treated the uk very well that's a very tough bargain they're striving -- driving i think the uk has the right man in charge now. the right person in charge in the form of boris. >> reporter: what is your current thinking on pulling out --

>> well we're talking to the government of afghanistan. we're talking to the taliban we're talking to others. we're looking at different things we've been there for 18 years. it's ridiculous. we have taken it down a notch. we're at about 13,000 people right now. 13,000 americans nato has some troops there, too, by the way and we're having good discussions. we'll see what happens we'll see what happens it's 18 years. when i'm really fighting, we're almost more of a police force over there it's been so many years. but we're like a police force. we're not supposed to be a police force as i've said, and i'll say it any number of times that this is not using nuclear. we could win that war in a week, if we wanted to fight it but i'm not looking to kill 10 million people i'm not looking to kill 10 million afghans because that's

what would have to happen. i'm not looking to do that but it's a war that has been going on for almost 19 years now. frankly, it's ridiculous, but with that being said, it's a dangerous place and we have to always keep an eye on it >> i like to look at various alternatives i don't know how the plan will be acceptable to me, maybe it's not going to be acceptable to them but we're talking. we have good talks going we'll see what happens it's more than other presidents have done. we have brought it down. we're bringing some of our troops back. but we have to have a presence, yes. >> could you clarify your position on enhanced background checks after el paso and dayton, you seem to be in fully support of enhanced measures. when you were leaving bedminster you seemed to suggest we have strong background laws which a

lot of people read you're dialing back. >> i'm not doing it to be cute we have very strong background checks now, but we have sort of missing areas. areas that don't complete the whole circle we're looking at different things i have to tell you it's a mental problem and i've said it a hundred times. it's not the gun that pulls the trigger. it's the person that pulls the trigger. these are sick people and it's also that kind of a problem. we're looking at mental institutions, which we used to have, like, for example, where i come from in new york. they closed up almost all of their mental institutions. there are many of them those people went on to the streets and did it for budgetary reasons. well, new york is not unique they've done it in many places >> reporter: have you supported either of the house bills? >> i'm not going to get into that, but we're in meaningful discussions with the democrats and i think the republicans are unified. we're strong in our second amendment, the democrats are not

strong at all in the second amendment. i would say they're weak on the second amendment and we have to be careful of that the democrats would, i believe, i think they would give up the second amendment and the people that -- a lot of people that put me where i am are strong believers in the second amendment and i am, also we have to be careful about that you know, they call it the slippery slope and all of a sudden everything gets taken away. we're not going to let that happen [ inaudible question ] >> i hope so we have good results and i want so share those with president trump. >> what is your question >> reporter: i was asking -- [ inaudible question ] >> so nice to have a question about romania.

[ inaudible question ] >> i think this is a man that can solve the corruption problem in romania he's made big strides, from what i heard. i haven't been there recently. i think he's the man that can solve the corruption problem there's a number of terrific countries like romania but they have a tremendous corruption problem. and i've heard you made tremendous progress. >> we did, yeah. >> reporter: do you support cutting -- >> we're looking at and we're looking at it in different ways and talking to republicans and democrats about it and certain things we can say but certain things it probably could be, you know, a penny wise maybe it's a penny wise. we'll see. we're looking at it. we have some things that are on the table, very much we'll let you know over the next, probably, sooner than a week >> reporter: mr. president,

you're -- [ inaudible question ] >> i just got an award and endorsement yesterday from the exact group. the group -- you saw that. they gave me the endorsement yesterday and i was very honored to -- log cabin but honored to receive it i've done very well with that community. some of my biggest supporters are of that community, and i think they -- i talked to them a lot about it i think i've done very well with that community as you know, peter that'iel are with me all the way. i just got a big endorsement from the log cabin group, yeah [ inaudible question ] >> let me tell you something

number one, we're doing very well somebody had to take china off you know, i read and i see so much and i read so much and i'll see these economists saying, oh, give up. give up on china give up. china has been ripping this country off for 25 years for longer than that, it's about time whether it's good for our country or bad for our country, short term long-term it's imperative that somebody does this because our country cannot continue to pay china $500 billion a year because stupid people are running it. so i don't mind this question. weather it's good or bad short term is irrelevant we have to solve the problem with china because they're taking out $500 billion a year plus it doesn't include intellectual property theft and other things. also, national security. so i am doing this, whether it's good or bad for your statement about will we fall into a

recession for two months okay the fact is, somebody had to take china on. my life would be easier if i didn't take china on i like doing it because i have to do it we're getting great results. china had the worst year they've had in 27 years. i don't that to happen but it puts us in a good negotiating position, doesn't it china wants to make a deal, and that's good. but they have to make a deal that is fair to us it can't be a deal that is not fair to us you should be happy i'm fighting this and fighting this battle. because somebody had to do it. we couldn't let this go. i don't thinks sustainable to let go on what was happening they were stealing all of our intellectual property, ideas, the theft was incredible they call it intellectual property theft and they value it at $300 billion a year who knows how they value it? i know how they value dollars. i don't know how to value

intellectual property theft but they have experts where they say it's at least $300 billion a year obama should have done bush should have done it clinton should have done it. they all should have done it nobody did it. i'm doing it so what do you say oh, my trade deals of course -- my trade deals aren't causing a problem this is something that had to be done the only difference is i'm doing it i could be sitting here right now with a stock market that would be up 10,000 points higher if i didn't want to do it. but i think we have no choice but to do it a lot of people that really know, people that love our country, they're saying thank you very much for taking it on and we're winning. because they're having the worst year they've had in decades. and it's only going to get worse. china lost 2 million jobs in the last month and a half. because they're moving the people the companies are moving to nontariffed countries. they've lost over 2 million jobs in a short period of time.

they're going to lose a lot more jobs if i didn't help certain companies, american companies like apple, for a short period of time, i may help them only they do what they have to do which is probably move from china. this would be short term if i didn't help them, they would be, i mean, they would be -- they would have a big problem. here is the thing. somebody had to take on what china was doing to the united states economically. we're winning big. i took it on and it should have been done by previous presidents but i took it on. and i'm happy to do it because it had to be done. and the smart people say thank you very much. and the dumb people have no idea then you have the political people and they go with the wind but they all know. even senator schumer said trump is doing a great job with china. i couldn't believe that! schumer thinks i'm doing the

right thing. he's doing the right thing by saying it. he knows china was a big economic threat and they were taking all of that money they were making from us and they were building planes and ships and lots of other things we can't let that happen >> reporter: there's a new study out of australia that suggested the current chinese military posture in south china sea and the pacific region could wipe out most u.s. bases within a number of hours. is that something that keeps you up at night? >> well, nothing keeps me up at night. i could tell you, we could wipe out anything we want we have the most powerful in the world and when i came in two and a half years, we were in a bad position now we're in a strong position we have $700 billion, $716 billion and $738 billion we have the strongest military in the world now we're getting close to finishing that we've rebuilt the military right now there's nobody that is

even close to us militarily. not even close zblb. >> reporter: it doesn't concern you? >> no. they would pay a price they wouldn't want to pay [ inaudible question ] >> somebody that is being put up -- to russia. yeah. >> very respected. well, i know mike pompeo likes it very much and he's very respected. he could be. >> they're doing that. romania is doing that. >> the taliban is looking to the u.s. -- if the u.s. were to draw down and the taliban went on the offensive, would the u.s. come and -- >> well the taliban does not respect the government the afghan government. they have no respect for the afghan government. i understand that and i know

that and they haven't been exactly getting a long for a long period of time. we've been a peace keeper there in a way for 19 years. at a certain point, you have to say that's long enough i see young men that step on a bomb and they lose their legs and arms and in some case they lose both and their face on top of it and they're living again, we could win that but, you know, i don't want to do what we would have to do to win it i think most people agree with me on that right now we're doing negotiating with the government and we're negotiating with the taliban and we'll see what happens from it. what is coming from it i will say this, the taliban would like to stop fighting us they would like to stop fighting us they've lost a lot but we'll see what happens remember, it's a tough place the soviet union became russia because of afghanistan

that's what happened very simple. they became russia because of afghanistan. somebody would say, oh, well, would they go in if they want to let them i think they tried that before, however. it didn't work out too well. >> nobody can be trusted this world, i think nobody can be trusted >> reporter: could we be back to where we were pre-9/11 with the taliban? >> we have to watch. we'll have intelligence and somebody there but you can say that about a lot of places, john. it does seem to be the harvard university of tropical storm -- terrorism. we'll always have somebody there. if the taliban were really right in what they're saying, they would stop that from happening they could stop that from happening very easily

>>well, they've been having these talks for hundreds of years. this is kashmir and kashmir is a complicated place. you have the hindus and the muslims and i wouldn't say they get along so great that's what you have right now you have millions of people that want to be ruled by others and maybe on both sides. and you have two countries that haven't gotten along well for a long time. frankly, it's a explosive situation. i spoke toprime minister cahn. i spoke with yesterday, also, prime minister modi. great people great friends of mine. they're great people and they love their countries they're in a tough situation kashmir is a very tough situation. and, you know, we're talking about this has been going on for decades and decades. shooting i don't mean shooting like shooting a rifle

i'm talking about major shooting of heavy arms. and it's been going on for a long period of time, but i get along well with both of them, as you know prime minister cahn was here just recently. i was with -- i'm going to be with prime minister modi i'll be with him over the weekend in france. so, you know, i think we're helping the situation, but there's tremendous problems between those two countries, as you know and i will do the best i can to mediate or do something. great relationship with both of them they're not exactly friends at this moment. complicated situation. a lot has to do with religion. religion is a complicated subject. >> reporter: said that the united states should rethink its policy of aid toward israel after she and congresswoman denied entry

congressman talib allowed to come in but decided not to should there be any change to israel >> no. you should see the horrible things that lean said about israel aocplus 3. that's what i call it. and you should see the things that the four of them have said about israel over the last couple of years. i mean, omar is a disaster for jewish people. i can't imagine if she has any jewish people in her district that could possibly vote for her. but what omar has said what talib has said. and i noticed yesterday for the first time, talib with the tears. all of a sudden she starts with tears. tears. i don't buy it i don't buy it i don't buy it for a second. because i've seen her in a vicious mood and campaign rallies. my campaign rallies before she was a congresswoman.

i said who is that and i saw a woman that was violent and vicious and out of control. and all of a sudden i see this person who is crying because she can't see her grandmother. she could see her grandmother. they gave her permission to see her grandmother but she grand standing and didn't want to do it that's a decision of israel. a lot of people are saying it was my decision. that's a decision of israel. they can let them in, if they want i don't think they want to when you read the things they've said about israel. if you look at their itinerary before they found out. it was all going to be a propaganda toward israel i don't blame israel for doing what they did. i having nothing to do with it i don't blame them i think it would have been bad to let them in including the four i'm talking about all four but these two. omar and talib and i think it would be a bad thing for israel but israel has

to do what they want to do but i would not cut off aid to israel. and i can't even believe that we're having this conversation five years ago, the concept of even talking about this, even three years ago, of cutting off aid to israel because of two people that hate israel and hate jewish people. i can't believe we're having this conversation. where is the democratic party gone where have they gone where they're defending these two people over the state of israel? i think any jewish people that vote for a democrat, i think it shows a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty. thank you very much. >> president trump taking questions on a wide range of issues there in the white house. he's sitting by the president of romania talking about the economy, about china

welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen the president said the u.s. is far from a recession but the fed should be proactive and cut interest rates and saying stock market could be higher if he wasn't waging this war with china but someone got to do it a pretty strong defense, actually, going after them for intellectual property and going after them for bad former behavior even though it may be causing this. >> yeah. and saying the economy is doing fantastically, he said even despite whatever head winds from the trade war let's bring in ayman jabbers for a little more color on what was a wide ranging conversation there. >> yeah. >> reporter: i think you guys are exactly right to spotlight this question of the president's response on the china trade deal i thought it was emotional i mean, the president was determined in his language and mocked the idea of his critics who suggest you might have a two-month recession as a result

of this. minimizing the idea there are negative economic consequences here as the possibility of a two month recession and suggesting he's willing to tolerate that in order to get at what he views is an absolute priority for his administration the president, i think, hammered home just how important this issue is to him with the emotional response that we saw him give and the issue of the payroll tax cut, you know, the "washington post" reported this yesterday. the white house responded through smacking that down saying it's not something that is under consideration at this time well, it turns out the words "at this time" were doing a lot of work in the denial the president here suggesting the payroll tax is something he's looking at. something he would like to perhaps move forward on. i asked the white house official about the discrepancy between the white house's denial yesterday and the president's comments here on tape. the white house official saying there's a difference between wanting to implement something and considering it and that's why they denied it

yesterday. and i said but it looks like, you know, the president really likes this idea. the white house official telling me "the president likes a lot of ideas. so that's where we are following thebouncing ball on the payrol tax cut. >> another idea that came up eamon. he would like to reduce capital gains taxes. >> reporter: i know there was a meeting yesterday with larry kudlow talking to the president and they discussed a number of tax cut ideas. that seems to be one of them but the question is, the president there asserting it seemed to me that we have to go back and listen to the tape. it seemed the president was asserting he could index capital gains unilaterally i have to figure out if that's the case it seems like almost all tax legislation has to come up the hill it doesn't seem like he doesn't have any chance of getting anything done in an election

year i don't know where the idea is coming from but they're discussing a number of tax cutting ideas behind the scenes and looking for things that the president can do unilaterally, if they can. they won't be able to work with democrats on the hill. >> yeah. unilaterally and proactively you know, if you have the premise the economy is okay now, looking to forestall any weakness down the road thank you. we'll talk to you soon for more on this, we'll bring in peter from the blakely advisory group and neil from renaissance. we also have steve here from stewart franklin neil, we'll start with you the president's comments come into this very thriving debate about whether we're on the crest of a recession obviously the bond market is throwing hints in that direction but the current data in the usa probably not yet how do you come down >> well, i think if you look at the economic data, i think the near term odds of recession are

low. six, nine, 12 months out, it gets more difficult the further out you go but, you know, typically you don't see new home sales rising 15% a year before a recession. you don't see refinancing activity surging a classic recession indicator, in my view, is looking at aggregate weekly payroll that's basically the sum product of jobs, hours, and earnings against headline inflation and we know that headline inflation is slowing basically below 2% all year and the aggregate income series is running about 4.5% it means a reasonable baseline for consumer spending over the next year is around 2.5% that's even before you talk about the increased cash flow from refinancing and the fact the savings rate is el evaluated. so as i mentioned, the housing market is picking up and that's going to provide some follow through into, you know, into construction activity. i mean, i remember talking with

sara a few minutes ago about cap x as a point of fact as we deal in the fact world here capital goods orders up about 6.5% so far this year. this cap x is falling off a cliff. >> that's what the fed chairman is telling us. is there a reason? >> he's saying that could happen but if you want to talk about aggregate investment, look at something more than equipment and boeing orders, sara. inventories are quite -- we had pretty strong private domestic demand in the second quarter so as i mentioned, if you look at classic lead-type indicators we look at, forget the bond market for a moment. it doesn't really point to a recession imminent, at least this year. >> all right we got to get another side in here peter joins us to push back on all of that. including our make up chair cap x debate >>well, since world war ii, about 60% of the recessions

consumer spending was positive you don't need a decline in that in order to have one we can argue the manufacturing side, the trade side is already in or around a recession certainly globally and possible in the u.s then that begs the question of what is the consumer do from here this is an evolving situation. you look at the july payroll number in manufacturing, hours worked, et. cetera that's the first sign that employers are responding to the slow down by limiting worker hours. now we're beginning to see that spilling over into the services side the services index at three year low. take transportation, for example, transportation is slowing because manufacturers are making less goods. that's the first sign it's beginning to show up on the services side. where it goes from here on the services side, in terms of hiring and hours worked, we're going to have to see but confident these tariffs don't come off if on december 15th we get all of chinese imports being tariffed at the full rate, then that will tip us

over into a recession. one last thing, i always argue that in the asset-priced dependent economy we're in, where the stock market goes from here could be the deciding factor when we go into recession. because after the fourth quarter stocks, retail sales in the first quarter was pretty pumped. if you get a sharp decline in the stock market, that will tip over the consumer and send us into recession, if the stock market does not immediately have us rebound and one more thing, i don't expect the fed rate cuts to help us in any way to cushion the blow from weakness overseas and tariff-led weakness in manufacturing. >> steve, there's a lot of room between the economy's firing on all sicylinders and we're in a recession. a 2% economy, we've had it for awhile the market trying to figure out which way it tips.

>> to take both sides, it sounded like the consumer is in good shape it sounds like the housing sector is ramping back up again. and to peter's point, you can have a manufacturing industrial recession and the consumer can be okay. >> which we had in 2015 and 2016. >> if the consumer is still okay, here is the problem, you can't have a recession we're going to be leading into a recession because when you just come out of a recession, you're leading into another recession but most of the stock markets gains or 10% of them, can be before the recession takes place. if the consumer is okay, employment data, or unemployment data is tame, you probably stay. >> in the market. >> in the market you can have the volatility we've seen you can see, to peter's point, also, the market can be pushing back and forth, but that's on trade. that is on the rates discussion. and i agree with the president if the trade discussion wasn't

on the forefront, the market would be dramatically higher. >> he said 10,000 points. >> well, the president likes to throw out points and a lot of us talking heads like to throw out points if we fact check us, we're probably all wrong, a certain amount of time i don't know how many. you can't prove the counter factual either way it doesn't matter. >> he said the market is up 60% since the election dow up 43. >> and interest rates are -- >> yeah. and you don't know where he started. it could have been before the election it could have been the night of the election it could have been the dip prior to it. >> peter, here is my question of someone who thinks we're going into recession do you think the fed can prevent it, if they take these kind of proactive measures of the president wants, the market seems to be craving, and that the fed is already started doing, essentially cutting and stopping their tightening >>well, the reason i don't think it will help is because the cost of money is not a bind

constraint on anything if you're looking to buy a house, the bond market eased policy by a hundred basis points it's only helped refies. new home sales and existing home sales are up modestly. you would think it would have been gotten more of a kick on the corporate side, well, net debt to ebb data ratios are near record highs so lowering the cost of country is not necessarily going to encourage corporations to lever more -- >> peter, what happens if the cost of capital -- we're in a global economy now a global market. if the rest of the world is racing toward zero, you kind of can't stay where you are now what does that do? it's sort of akin to no inflation because we're in a global economy how can you stick with rates here if the rest of the world is lowering >> the ecob have destroyed their banking system it will not necessarily generate

faster economic growth if you kill the profitnability in the banks. i argue we'll be better off by not going down that path and having a patz of our own that has positive interest rates on a nominal basis and not just go back to zero because it's the thing to do and it's something we've done in the past we were at zero for seven years. we had multiple rounds of qe and the economy barely growth north of 2%. so lowering rates doesn't equate to a faster economic story as we've seen clear evidence of that. >> you take the other side of that, neil >> well, i think i would agree that the fed is, you know, sort of the one institution that has the most pressure on it to do something and they are far, you know, relatively weak ammunition i think the attention needs to be put on the fiscal and transagain of the germans. if you look at europe, you know, the looser fiscal policy is in the interest of germany because

they have a much weaker economy now. and that's also the interest of the whole of europe. again, i mean, if we're looking at the data as it stands at the moment, and even projecting out a few months, i would say that the risk of recession is low i agree that if we went full bore on the tariffs, that would be very bad going into 2020 but, you know, it's still very much in the realm of forecasting. >> what about the idea the fed can steepen the yield curve again and ward it off? >> typically from a recession, sara, you see a bear flattening of the yield curve right now you have a bull flattening if it's about the yield curve, the fed can easily undo this in the short run. the fed can't do anything about the longer run interest rates. why the rates are coming down in the long run, but if it's about the yu the yield curve, the fed can do that. >> they're going to try. they're going to try

neil and peter, thank you very much steve, stick around for a little bit. we have about 21 minutes left before the bell here is where we stand the s&p 500 down a little more than half a% the dow down 97. low for the day about 123. nasdaq down about .4 and the russell down half a percent. up next, the last-chance trade with steve peter navarro praising the former toys "r" us ceo. >> i'm going to recommend that your viewers find a guy named jerry storch who was on tv today on a financial lose network who gave, i think, the most elegant and eloquent view of why these tariffs won't be passed on to consumers. we did track him down and next hour jerry storch will join us live. to talk about tariffs, react to the comments from navarro and

give us his latest thoughts on longel w "csi bl"ill be right back

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18 minutes until the close

slight declines here the dow down 100 shares of medtronic higher seeing higher demand for the minimally invazive therapies business raising the full year profit forecast the stock up 3%. shares of sarepta plunging today. the fda citing safety concern including the risk of infection. so the stock is hurting today. down 16.5% several big retailers are reporting earnings today discussing how tariffs are impacting their business courtney reagan has all the details. hi. >> hi. home depot estimates the total tariff exposure around $2 billion. the cfo told me she thinks it could end up being lower than that she told me it's manageable for our scale and size and merchants

are merchants are negotiating with vendors, finding other ways to mitigate higher costs, moving production, and making careful decisions on which items we increase prices on home depot is worried about the broader consumer impact. factoring it into the lower sales forecast what happens to consumer more broadly with tariffs if consumers slow down spending, it could have an impact on gdp. koels has been working on similar mitigation strategies. the cfo said it would be sound and surgical on decisions around the pricing to protect the customer and market share. all of that factored into coal's outlook. tjx the majority of the goods are excess inventory it hasn't committed to most of its fourth quarter goods and the ceo said short term we probably get a little advantage, strangely enough in this situation. probably washes out over the

midterm, and i would say long-term we could see benefit again. possibly back over to you guys. >> courtney, thank you the market kind of give the benefit of the doubt to home depot and tjx. about 15 minutes to go. >> a good lead in. it sort of sounded bullish, to me, on the home builders or the housing complex. lennar is name i've been following for awhile it's at the $50 price range. so this is the make or break price. so if you buy it now, use that $50 as your bull/bear barometer. what we hear from home depot lumber deflation that's bullish the rates are going which way? lower. bullish for the builders, as well the last couple of days we talked about a recession but yet the home builders enter green on the screen stayed long in the complex. >> do you need rates to keep going down

>> no you don't. i think the set up fundament they have been did pressed the builders even with lennarup 30% it's been a conception depression i believe the stocks can rally aggressively. >> i believe it's at a new high today. obviously they're working. you're talking about about a 2% cushion to that $50 point of lennar i want you to weigh in on ge since you picked it. obviously allegations out there the stock has struck we've had, i mean, ge is a expensive option so when you look at the other allegations -- exactly this is always going to be susceptible to huge price swings i'm still long on it how about mac, sara? >> yeah. it goes up a lot. >> yeah. in the winter. >> because of tinder

>> yeah. and 18% revenue increase second quarter over the year. if you look at this one, does trade have anything to do with match? do you see people rushing into it sometimes it'll sell off with the overall market but that's a buying opportunity i don't know if they can go much higher from here. >> it's hard to make the tariffs from tinder argument. >> yeah. >> that's been the case. >> seems like something you wouldn't necessarily want to skimp on. >> i agree we got about 13 minutes left to go. the markets down about 100 points in the dow. a little less than that s&p down around half a percent. nasdaq down 32 points and russell 2,000 down half a percent. still to come the fallout from the opioid crisis two details on two drug makers after the bell, earnings from toll brothers and urban

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you have treasuries rising today. it hasn't been good. >> yeah. that's been the pattern. gravitational pull on yields drug makers endo and allergain is trying to avoid going to trial. >> we'll start with endo the company said it reached a potential settlement of $10 million in a set of two opioid cases with ohio counties without admitting any wrong doing. that's because these are only two cases of thousands that endo and other companies are facing they seek to hold industries accountable for the opioid epidemic they isswere selected as the fit to go to trial if other settlements are reached, those trials will start october 21st endo is not the only company named. reuters is reporting that aller gain's reach a potential $5 million in the same ohio

counties so it's not the end of opioid litigation for endo but provides a way for wall street to calculate the total potential liabilities. it nearly extrapolates to $1.8 billion nationally. it's less than the $4 billion it estimated. >> thank you we have about seven minutes left in tlad she -- trade. 468 s&p companies reported 75% meet estimates 8% met 19% missed estimates we'll get a preview of toll. >> hi. so expected to post lower profit and revenue. the eps estimate is down 34% from a year ago. the revenue estimate is down 11%. last quarter the company pointed to bad weather in north carolina as one of the reasons. so we'll learn about the impact of the weather tomorrow. during the conference call two things investors will be

watching any signs lower rates have helped stabilize luxury real estate market. that said, home building stocks outperformed so far in 2019. up more than 30% and toll brothers trading, last time i checked, about $1.5%. >> there you go. thank you. retailer urban outfitters are coming out after the bell. courtn courtney reagan has a look. >> under pressure since it reported in may. down about 22% in the three months the street isn't hopeful for a strong quarter here either looking for total comparable sales to fall about 2% followed by anthropology, free people estimated to gain 1.4%. the earnings expected to fall more than 31% over last year to 58 cents on a slight increase of revenues apparel has been a tough spot

for many retailers lately. with upcoming tariffs the pressure continues both kohls and tjx pointed to strength never know we've got five minutes left in today's session time for "the closing countdown. kevin joins us kevin, notable that home depot is the biggest winner now in the s&p. lows is a big executor is the third biggest winner what does it tell you about how the market is absorbing earn sngs. >> well number one, with home depot and low's. it's a great comparison. low's up 3% today. there's so many comparisons between the two companies with marvin ellison the exemployee at home depot taking over low's we'll see if they're closing the gap or home depot is dominant in

that space i think that will be the great comparison we make tomorrow morning, for sure. >> we're sinking here. a little toward the new lows for the day. dow down 152 s&p down around the 2900 level what do you make of the action today? a backsliding after we got a strong bounce? >> you know, i think after a three-th three-day rally, i love the news on the investigations of big tech it took all the oxygen not only of some of the faang stocks but bled into the overall market that being said, and the bond rally i thought put pressure on the financials and if you look at the russell, the regional banks got hit hard based on that number that's why the russell was small. i think this market after three day rally lost its energy there. >> i mean, no question we're watching the bond market and yields are lower which is taking down stocks map breaks that pattern? >> well, i think, you know, as we get to tomorrow, fed minutes, that'll be a big event

remember this is a week for any big economic data. the fed minutes tomorrow and then all about anybody going to make headlines commenting on a jansen hole on interest rates. >> kevin, thank you very much. well, let's get a sharper view of what is going on in the bond market. >> it gives you all you need to know down seven on the day. hovering one basis point below the cycle low close at 153 the shocks two year in europe, interday minus 91 basis points finally the euro had a up day and probably because the dollar took rest but also expecting some stimulus. no numbers on it it's all global. it's getting a bit excited one thing that wasn't excited today other than 11:00, the green and the nasdaq, bertha.

>> popped into positive territory for just a second and, boy, it's failing adds we're heading toward the low of the day. apple is the last megacap standings. it held up well off the highs. if it holds up here, it will be the third straight up day. i can't say that for the rest of the megacap complex. among those that are bucking the trend today, the chinese search engine equivalent of google posted better than expected earns. we're seeing gamers looking strong here. among the new lows we had just as many new lows as new highs and tillray among those. that stock about $200 plus stock about a year ago it has come well off the highs, bob. >> stocks struggle that's what happened today for example, we saw banks weak, oil service stocks weak,

transportation weak, particularly airlines, materials were weaker today. interestingly, consumer naimes n doubt were weaker. we saw declines in united health with , coke, johnson & johnson. consumers stocks are notedly weaker construction stocks looked very good it b-52 week high there. good enough results. let's call it that for home depot. you heard lows is coming up. toll brothers will be reporting after the bell important thing here today the bulls have been making a case in the last few days that we're going it see numbers coming out of the european pmi that might be weaker than expected on thursday there's some hopes it would lead to the ecb getting more aggressive rate cuts we'll have mr. powell giving the speech on friday a lot of people have realistic expectations that perhaps they'll signal even more aggressive rate cuts

most traders expecting two rate cuts for the rest of the year. two 25-rate basis point cuts [ closing bell ] welcome to "closing bell" i'm mike san tolly. >> i'm sara eisen. we'll get a negative close near session lows here special shutdooutout to university of denver dow down 170 points. and took a spill in the last few moments of trade there watching those higher bond prices, lower treasury yields been a drag lately financials finished worse of the day. the s&p 500 losing .8.

nasdaq down .7 no major catalyst cited, mike, but this does come off two back to back up 1% days and pretty strong three days. >> yeah. for most of the day the market tried to resist the treasury yields dragging lower. it seemed right at the end of the day the ten year got below 155 and the market didn't have a lot of energy left in it it was a pretty heavy market on close to sell. i adopt think it was news driven necessarily. but the big teches did not save the market today perhaps because of a lot of that anti-trust talk. >> regulation talk. >> not necessarily something that could bail out the rest. >> joining us to talk about the market day is phil from jpmorgan welcome to everyone. so what is your general take here on whether we're seeing

short term balances and moves or anything fundamentally changed that would lead to the next move in the market? >> everyone is mutter the r-word the president said we're not supposed to bring up the r-word. recession. i think it's everyone -- i had lunch with a ceo who was saying, you know, we see some problems ahead. we're stocking up and putting cash in reserves here. they're changing. >> what is that? >> i don't want to say but, you know, they're worried about a recession. they're worried about am i going to have to close stores? is it going to cost me severance? they're starting to plan for it. that's how it begins that's how it happens all the time and, by the way, it's not that of normal. it's okay. it's okay for things to close.

where we haven't done it in 121 months or something. >> yeah. last hour president trump was speaking at a bilateral meeting with the prime minister of romania. he addressed the u.s. economy and rate cuts. listen i think the word recession is a word that is inappropriate it's just a word that the certain people in the media are trying to build up because they would love to see a recession. we're far from a recession in fact, if the fed would do its job, i think it would have a tremendous spurt of growth tremendous spurt the fed is psychologically very important. less so, actually, but very that's a big if, frankly the fed should be cutting. minimum $100 basis points. over a period of time. not at one time but over a period of time >>well, i'm not talking about >> the reason we're talking about recession, the r-word not because of political motivations. because the yield curve inverted seven out of the last recessions we saw a precure or so

you're talking to ceos that are worried about recession. we don't want a recession. but people are talking. >> recessions suck they're the worst. and they're the worst for those who don't have the money it's actually not the ceo that i'm worried about. it's the person who can't pay their medical bills, can't afford to pay the tuition check. >> yeah. >> that's what the government policy is meant to help to ensure we have the right safety net for when that does happen. >> obviously what is interesting is whether we're heading for a recession or not, the final phase over the last year for the last six months or two years we have the question. >> is the cycle over and here is the thing,is it impossible but one of the things we look at is at citi we maintain a bear market checklist we look at 18 different criteria the yield curve being one of them but also looking at sentiment, looking at leverage

on corporate balance societies, looking at evaluation, and out of those 18 factors, only 4 are flashing red right now and to put that in context, in 2000, it was 17.5 out of 18. and then in 2007, it was 13 out of 18. so what that's telling us is not the immediate direction of markets it's whether we should buy the dips and we're confidently buying the dips when we see the pullbacks. >> other confusing thing out of this is even if we are going into recession, there's no telling what the timing is there's no telling what the stock market will do after the yield curve inverts, the stock market could go up for several months. >> yeah. it's the question we're trying to figure out what is the bond market at 1.5% telling or no telling. the vors racity caused us to pu back a little. however, if you want to say something is sinister, you have to believe three things. the fed won't be effective in the mid cycle adjustment two, you have to believe there

is political will for a trade war. that's not clear the biggest thing. you have to take the other side of the u.s. consumer and you have talked about it a lot over the past couple of days has been nothing but resilient in june and july you put those together every president in history has wanted lower rates. president trump is just saying it if he's pulling for 100. we got 25. we'll probably get 75 and we're almost there if he would stop saying it maybe it would be easier for the fed to do it. >> what is fascinating, rob, it seems like even since jay powell said this is is a mid cycle adjustment we've been in the fix of the market doesn't necessarily want the fed to treat it as this. just a technical adjustment. we're going to fix the yield curve. it's not because the economy is at risk. they want a sense of urgency, seemingly b seemingly from the fed chair we're not getting that. >> no. the number of flashing amber

signs. even the ceo -- the phantom ceo wasn't this concerned, like, that we're seeing same-store sales drop or suppliers. it's just some point it will happen it's ban long time there's concern when it happens it'll be worse because it's been so long. it isn't always the case last year if you look at 10 years or something early 2000 recession outside of the stock market effect was not that dramatic. >> it wasn't that bad. >> you have to remember the definition of a recession. two quarters of negative growth. i think our most recent memory is 2018 why is why everyone is panicked the other thing we talk about the yield curve inversion, we have to look at global bond yields right now you have 50% of global bond yields negative, and then 80% xcuf less than 1%. treasuries are attractive.

there was going to be continued pressure. >> yeah. it's a great point and you should be worried about saying this time is different. we've never had invert with $17 million negative we've in heavier two -- >> you said one of the concerns should be the fed would not be effective. it starts to make you wonder if we're going into negative interest rate territory in this country, is the fed -- >> the fed had a tremendous effect on the stock market this week they went from tightening in december to easing in zwrul. and that was tremendous. >> you think the fed is effective. why not the all in on stocks on expectations they'll start the cycle? >> interest rates dropped the most this month at any point in the last four and a half years you have to pay attention to that we need a stabilization in rates. >> a case to be made on the talk of recession hopes to inoculate. we're bracing for itted in adv.

>> or talking into it. >> don't blame the media, though. >> thank you. >> thank you up next, former toys "r" us ceo jerry storch and awaiting readings on toll brothers. we'll get the results and how to trade them coming up. back in 90 seconds

volatile day on wall street. looking at the big movers. bertha at the nasdaq. >> we lost about 80 points going into the close in the last few minutes. much due to weakness in consumer staples. it was a big leadership group in the last month we had decliners of united health, pfizer, coca-cola, johnson & johnson going into the close. throughout the day, yields are down throughout the day. typically saw stocks weak. we saw banks down, oil service were weak, transports, particularly some of the airlines we'll call it good enough from

home deport. toll will be reporting here momently after the bell. toll up about 1%. >> bob, thank you. the nasdaq lower for the first time in three days. >> the nasdaq breaking that two-day winning streak apple, i mentioned earlier, was the last man standing to just literally eked out a third day of gains by just a penny very unusual last time it did it was about a year ago this time i guess an august thing. meantime, the other big cap teches under pressure. all coming back today. there's more regulatory spe speculation might happen with the companies. bio tech, though, was the worst performing sector. down about 1%. sarepta a big drive there.

back to you guys. >> thank you we have an earnings alert now on urban outfitters courtney has the results good to see you. >> hi. so here is a mixed report for urban's second quarter earnings coming in at 61 cents that's three cents better than the street had been looking for. revenues are lighter at 952 million. the street had been looking for upwards of 980 million comparable sales down 3% slightly worse than expected on the street the urban outfitters brand down 5% free people up 6% and anthropology down 3% important note from the ceo who said that third quarter, to date, comparable sales are positive across all three brands and that appears to be what is lifting the stock here now by almost 4%. they have some increased mark downs from underperforming women's apparel. digitally on anthropology, and urban outfitters they know that fall apparel is

starting to perform a little better than it was earlier on in the year. >> that's a good signal. thank you. >> yes we got quarterly results from big retail names today like home depot, tjx. they missed on revenues but they painted different pictures about the broader economy. here is the home depot cfo earlier. >> consumer is facing the effect of impact of tariffs consumer demand could be impacted. >> meantime tjx sounding a little more positive on tariffs and trade. ernie herman saying we're phenomenal product availability across wide spread category the and major brands some we believe is related to tariffs. joining us now for more is jerry

storch former of ceo of toys "r" us and hudson bay and hero to peter navarro. who said you get it when it comes to these consumer impact on tariffs what is exactly is your position >> i've never met peter but he sounds like an interesting guy the comments he's referring to i made them in the context of trump's original announcement of the 10% tariffs in a market crash. i was saying it's too much of an overreaction i believe that then and now. because companies will take action they will work to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. they'll negotiate lower prices we hear a lot of this today. you heard it from others who work to renegotiate prices and work to move production to other countries, shift their product a mix. only then raise prices and then if they do, we look at the math of this and now it's

evenless -- less. it will pitch the consumer but won't be the pain that some people talked about. my calculations are it would be a few fractions, a few decimal points of 1% price increase across the consumer basket the $14 trillion of consumer purchases. it will be for digital companies. >> yeah. but it sounds like a lot of frictional costs absorbed by the industry. >> and timing issues i would say that the big winners will be the big companies diverse product mix and can have a lot of negotiating like walmart, target, people like costco amazon who is sleshlly marketplace. they can shift it out rapidly. they'll do well. the people i watch who will be more impacted by this would be people heavy into apparel. there's already, you know, a big move out of department stores in the mall and on to the internet.

what does it sound like? a department store like jc penney, macy's, kohls. you have to get worried. look across the consumer spectrum, at 10%, again, keeping in mind if it gets higher, i don't believe it's a huge impact on the consumer. >> there's also a sort of wide spread debate what is happening with our economy and whether the u.s. consumer is strong enough to prevent any sort of wider economic downturn. what is your sense >> i don't see anything in the numbers so far, if you look retrospective that would suggest there's any weakening at all the numbers for july retail spending was way up. it was an accelerating pattern

in the numbers you saw in everything else, you see every one of these earnings report is consistent is with the patterns going on for several years. the winners are the ones you expect to win. look at home depot, walmart. they've been weak for a long time we see nothing on the horizon that changes that picture. >> i wonder about this from an i investment perspective is it immune to contrary thinking and value investing and looking at what is cheap and what can come back if i sit here and say gap stores trading five or six times. all of these changes with a ton of physical square footage and not a lot of options. >> i know you understand this but the u.s. probably is three triple to four times as much retail square footage of brick and mortar as we need today.

particularly in the malls. a huge amount of overstory taking place there you're swimming way up stream. i think it's better to find someone. look at t.j. max one of my heros. >> numbers were a little light. >> that's my point here is a company with $62.5 million market cap. >> yeah. >> there's nothing left in department stores. they killed department stores. not the internet and the internet is finishing off the job. t.j. max very strong company only 2% comp stock started down but ended up flat for the day but still, to me, that's a winner for the long-term because they represent the kind of value the consumer is looking for. be when you say they killed department stores, i mean, do you actually think that these

r are uninvestable stocks and none have turn around plans that are merchandise light at the end of the tunnel. >> the best of the best nordstrom and macy's is doing a great job. it's not enough. the trends are simply too devastating. is there room at the bottom? maybe. kohls is kind of in the middle they're good because it's a great value place to shop. you get a bargain. it means as traffic shifts to the internet, they have a huge profitability problem. as low ticket items, when you ship them on the internet with the cost of the shipping it eats up the margin on the low-ticket item it's difficult to sell on the internet t.j. max basically they're not counting it on the results it's brick and mortar.

>> private equity has been absent right. they see this. >> because every time they buy one these companies, they leverage it up that's the last thing that will work in this environment. >> another way this is a different sight l than we've seen in the past thank you. >> thank you up next break down the charts to see whether falling stock buy back volumes could be a head wind for the market later, the latest on the fallout from big tech companies. - stand up if you are first generation college student.

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fox closed the day lower after a pause of a three day rally and got a little spill losing steam into the 3 points meantime, urban outfitters

shares surging after hours toll brothers results due out any minute we'll hit it as soon as it happens. over to mike s. >> this is a quarterly rate of stock buyback volume you see it rolled over from very high levels. the previous peak last cycle 2006 this was a bigger proportion of the total stock market value in 2006 than buybacks have ever been this segment. so for all the credit or blame that buybacks get for where stocks trade now, i think it's probably been overstated keep in mind, that buybacks have generally been flat on a quarterly basis during periods when the market was very strong. i mean, this is 2017 market going up strongly and buybacks were not responsible for it. i would say this is a factor that has been in the background. it's been providing a bid for

stocks but hasn't been driving things so for people to point to buybacks as the only source of buying, the math doesn't work out. we trade -- i don't know -- >> yeah. >> a trillion dollars a week or day in stocks. it can't account for all of it it's something to keep in mind so i think if this goes steeply lower, it will say something. >> that's what i was wondering whether buy backs have been good tells about cycles turning or -- >> kind of curvy it depends. >> it tells you credit market is open it tells you they have excess cash flows but doesn't tell you what the markets have. >> we're awaiting earnings from toll brothers and bring you the numbers. who's dog is this?

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>> you work with a variety of sectors and companies. what do you do with macy's >> 10,000 products go on sale for labor day weekend and you want to know how to price and change them and permisonalize sales for the consumers. you want to place them correctly and the supply chain and optimizing supply chains you liquidity and want it with the right pricing. it's also a competitive model here i think the whole thing to make it simple and easy for customers. >> you mentioned corporate

bonds. it reminds me something like when algorithm trading first came to wall street stocks there would be these firms that had the off the shelf algorithms saying you can use ours and pay us and later on, i guess, each firm would have wanted the ability to create their own and learn on their own is that something like what you're doing allowing the customer to create this smart program >> yes it's like a generation where allowing customers to -- the complexity of building a model and the features you need to pull out of the data it's simple to they get it and that's what we're going. try to make your own ai. i think the companies they work with are looking to become ai super powers. >> so, i mean, are you competing with the big guys?

microsoft, ibm >> everybody else has been claimed to build it and asking it to come to their cloud. we've seen what happened with that in the social world we want to democratize it. help the little guys we want the democratic way to build things so our vision is to empower a state farm or capital one or wells fargo or goldman sachs, in this case, and go against the larger -- in the tech world. >> going to go public? it's been a hot ipo market >> ai is just starting. >> thank you toll brother earnings are out. we have the numbers. >> hi. for eps for the luxury home

builder a dollar versus the estimate of 83 cents the estimate was down more than 34.5% a year ago revenue is coming in at 1.77 billion the estimate was 1.7 billion the ceo saying that mortgage rates talk about a lot limited supply of new and existing homes and strong employment picture are providing tail winds toll brothers up 3.7%. back to you. >> all right thank you. a nice 3.7%. >> it seems there's some -- in the recent years it seems like, you know, this push from lower rates a pent up demand is working. >> we'll bring in ken jenner ken, your first reaction here to the numbers. >> certainly is a nice beat. they did commit to high end and

vie call guidance and beat their gross margin guidance. i think the orders did better than the seasonal trends we would have expected. so that bodes well for their forward, you know, revenues versus our expectations. >> and what can we say about, i guess, this egg segment of the market versus other parts of home building. toll is occupying some of the higher end. >> sure. i think toll does occupy the high end these order rates specifically are good for them given the drag they've had coming from california southern california, specifically our macro call really is flight to quality with that means the builders benefit measure the building product companies from lower interest rates as it spurs new home sales that's where you see the most interest rate sensitivity. the fact toll is doing well, it fits in with our macro call. >> yeah within i was going to ask about the group in general

whether it's going to continue the nice run we've had and how much is predicated on rates staying low or moving lower >>well, not necessarily moving lower. the ten year is at 3.2 in november it has come down a quite a bit there's always a lag in interest rates. it affects new home buyers the most i think it's a bit more lag defect for the building product companies is really tied to high home price changes we have a 3r7b9 appreciation now. i think that will be a bit of a drive for the building product companies. versus the home builders and names like toll, kbh have been doing well and showing progressive signs of order demands. >> all right thank you very much for checking in. >> thank you still ahead, will lowe's

lower because of tariff fears? here are the big winner on the s&p 500.

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this looks like a good one. >> it has bearing on the whole debate where we are on the economic cycle whether we can pick up growth from here. just to explain, this orange line is what is called u.s. economic policy indicator. it's basically the stimulus effect of fiscal spending, fiscal deficits, plus lower interest rates it's pushed forward by one year. it's meant to be a leading indicator of the second line which is gdp growth. and the argument here is this line moved up. we're running larger deficits. we have lower bond yields. money and supply liquidity is moving in the positive direction so jim's point is without the fed necessarily doing anything more, because of the leads and

lags and how it operates, we should, in theory, have u.s. economic growth pick up again up toward that 3% level so just using this indicator it would seem there's a little more juice kind of coming into this system that might be able to give some relief for the growth leaders. we'll see. >> it's also, i think it's also an argument for people who say stimulus still works not just pushing on a string our economy traditionally responds pretty well. >> exactly keep in mind that the tightening from 2017 and 2018 got us to this position of people saying the economy has been restrained too much by the fed if, in fact, that's your case you have the lag times how that goes through this would be something you turn in the positive growth. >> yeah. because payroll taxes. >> yeah. anything on top of it, too. up next, big tech under fire looks like a group about to turn up the heat on technology companies. what the extra layer of scrutiny

could mean for the faang stocks.

up next preview what to expect from louwe's earning report and tony dwyer will weigh in we'll be right back. - stand up if you are first generation college student.

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alert on walmart suing tesla. we have that at headquarters. >> hi. two big names here walmart is suing tesla clorg to

a claim that the solar panels caught fire allegedly. the suit is alleging breach of contract, gross negligence, and failure to live up to industry standards. walmart would like tesla to remove solar panels for all 241 stores and pay damages related to the fires that walmart said tesla caused we reached out to both companies and haven't heard back walmart is suing tesla claiming the solar panels caught fire asking them to pay damages and remove the solar panels from all 240 locations where they have been installed back to you. >> thank you very much you know, this is only likely to stoke criticism for tesla. it dates back to when tesla acquired solarcity in 2016 $2.6 billion there was controversy even then. >> yeah. and of course a company that controls solarcity.

>> yeah. a little bit of an inside deal not a growth edge within tesla. >> apparently the second quarter of 2019 tesla installed 29 megawatts of solar, a record low in the megawatts in the single quarter. >> it seems like a venue dispute that has spilled into the courts with walmart other tech news, a group of states preparing to move forward with an investigation of big tech companies ylan mui has more on that. >> reporter: mike, this is being coordinated across at least a dozen states it is expected to be bipartisan and i'm told states attorneys general have discussed it with the department of justice during a meeting here in d.c. in july remember, the doj is conducting its own review of market power among the big tech platforms today the department's top antitrust official told our colleague brian sullivan they all intend to cooperate. >> i think it is safe to say that we're all in the same place, having had conversations

with the state attorneys generals at the federal level and the state ags, i don't think, you know, they're at different stages of the investigation. >> he would not give any timeline for a formal announcement or action, but there are reports, guys, the states could go public early next month back over to you >> ylan, is there a sense here -- i mean obviously it seems it is being done in coordination with the department of justice, but that it is just a matter of bringing to bear, you know, the state's investigative powers on all of this i'm trying to figure out what it would mean different for the tech companies themselves to have the states involved if, in fact, the federal government was already scrutinizing them. >> reporter: that's a very good question one of the issues in this type of investigation is where do you draw the line, who is regulating and who is overseeing what you know, rahim said they intend to work together but as we saw with the sprint and t-mobile case, you know, the doepartment of justice came to one conclusion, that that deal could

go forward, but states are challenging the deal and saying they do not believe the merger should occur there are definitely instances where states and the fed can be at logger heads, and we'll have to see as these investigations develop whether or not it happens in this case >> ylan, thank you a lot of people pointing to microsoft, 20 states joining the justice department in suing in the late '90s and how it was key to building sort of public support and just political ammunition against the company. >> i think it underscores the fact these companies don't really have friends out there in terms of a lot of government constituencies. >> they're piling up on the other side. >> onl obviously what the states feel is that it is a winner to go after the companies on a public relations business. >> up next, your wall street look ahead key things every investor needs to watch as we head into a new trading day when "closing bell" comes right back you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse.

but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. so, every day, we put our latest technology and unrivaled network to work. the united states postal service makes more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country.

stocks took a bit of a slide into the close, pretty much finishing at the lows of the day. the dow down about two-thirds of 1%, giving back a chunk of almost a three-day rally bouncing off last week's lows and the 800 point loss of last wednesday. to your wall street look ahead, the fed minutes are out tomorrow

and retail earnings will keep on coming let's start with a preview of the fed minutes. >> tomorrow we will get minutes from last month's meeting when the fed cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade it will be very interesting. look for any insight into the decision, including the dissent. remember, two key members voted against it as well as any clues about future rate cuts do they talk about mid cycle adjustment and what does it mean that, of course, comes ahead of the fed's annual symposium in jackson hole, we ohmy and we will hear from robert kaplan thursday at 3:00 p.m. on "closing bell" the big speech is jay powell on friday and whether he will build on the guidance he gave at his last news conference after the rate cut, suggesting maybe they're drinkithinking about mo aggressive rate talks because the recession talk heated up, the bond market action, the stock market volatility. that's certainly what the market is hoping for. >> important to point out the dissents because in the press conference the chairman has to kind of reflect the feeling in the room, right? when he is talking about the

outlook, you have to give a nod to the fact the entire committee did not want to cut rates last time even. >> including in boston who has spoken out recently, yesterday on the wires did not sound like he was there yet in terms of a rate cut. >> that's right. >> so may dissent again. and how will powell sort of handle that, and how is that discussion inside the fed? how worried were certain members about the outlook? >> three days of lots of heavy fed content coming up. lowe's meanwhile one of the top performers in the s&p today after strong results from rival home depot this morning. joining us to discuss what to expect from lowe's tomorrow morning, from research at gabelli and company, thanks for joining us what should we be looking at from lowe's numbers to tell us about the consumer and how lowe's is executing right now? >> absolutely. i think a few things to think about sick lar to home depot, what kind of impression the lumbar deflation will have on results. some conversation around a

softer first half and what the expectations are for the second half and what that means for their same-store sales as well as eps finally, we will be looking at gross margin, given the miss in the first quarter and lo expectations going into second quarter, see if they're able to bounceback given the issues they're having in their pricing ecosystem. >> what about the guidance cut from home depot? how do you think that warning about potential consumer impact on -- of course the lumber deflation problem? how is lowe's going to deal with all of that? >> sure. so i think the guidance cut was largely anticipated. i think what was a positive surprise was the reiteration of the full-year eps guide which shows there are some bottom line levers to drive eps despite a softer top line. i would say that 80 basis points of that cut is related to lumber deflation with a little bit regarding some uncertainty around tariffs, and surely tariffs and what it does to pricing and what kind of an

impact that has on the consumer does create some uncertainty going into the second half and maybe even beyond. >> lowe's as a stock has obviously underperformed home depot, like 17% off its high trade. pretty persistently at a valuation discount any thought that maybe that gap can be closed? >> i think so. you've got a new management team in place you have a clear operating strategy that should lead to better capital decisions, better operating efficiency they've exited underperforming stores i do think the changes they're driving should support a small mid teens earnings growth over the next two years and the stock trades at about 15 times my 2020 earnings that compares to close to 19 times home depot's 2020 earnings i think there's upside, especially if you take a one to two-year outlook. >> alvarello, thank you for joining us. >> thank you quickly, what are you watching in the market >> we're still watching the bond market

we had the comments from the president saying it is ridiculous to talk about recession, but we have a persistent the idea the bond market is trying to handicap a global slowdown and the market hasn't escaped that story totally. i think they have to stop going down as an initial step and we'll see. >> we're in scary territory. >> a little bit. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is foim i'm melissa lee. traders are tim seymour, cavkar finerman and guy adami why one market pro says we are in a tactical no man's land ahead of this speech from jay powell in jackson hole we are keeping an eye on shares. the homebuilder reporting the move after the results later the big beef over chicken. wendy's, popeye's and