it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquaters and here is your 5 at 5. dazed and confused the wild swings of the market continue amid mixed messages from the white house and the corporate earnings picture as well where do we go from here back on the table, the president floating the idea of a payroll tax cut just one day after the administration denied it was even being considered. is it worth the risk president trump digging in his heels with the trade war saying

it's worth the risk of a recession to get a big deal done out of control, jeffrey gundlach has strong words ahead of this week's big jackson hole symposium and then tech under fire as well it is wednesday august 21st and worldwide exchange begins right now. good morning here is how your money and the global markets are up, the dow will open up around 140 points the s&p by about 17 and the nasdaq by around 63. we could get back most of what we lost yesterday. this after the dow and the s&p snapped three day win streaks. the nasdaq coming off it's first down day in three.

the bond market certainly a key focus as well. and the current yield floating below 1.56%. 1.59 the last trade there, 1.539% if you take a look at that yield, it's maybe just a bit wider than it was over the course of the past couple of weeks. it is the president front and center taking on everything from trade war to the fed to the state of the u.s. economy. nbc's tracie potts joins us now from washington. so tracy we can start anywhere let's see what is going on with the economy and the trade war. >> and also payroll taxes which the white house insisted was not on the table, not one of the things that they were considering to try to boost the economy even though the washington post and the new york times had reported that, the white house said those reports were wrong and then one day later president trump came out and said, you know, i actually

have been thinking about payroll taxes for a long time. here's what he said. >> a lot of people have been talking about indexing for many years and it's something that i am certainly thinking about. i can say that a majority of people in the white house at the level that does this kind of thing, they like indexing. so it's something that i'm thinking about, payroll taxes, i've been thinking about payroll taxes for a long time. whether or not we do it now or not is not being done because of recession. >> so now on the china trade war and the impact that that's having on our economy and certainly on the markets, we saw that last week president trump saying someone had to take china on despite the fact that economists are now worried that the impact of this trade war is contributing to an economic slow down that could lead to a recession. the president said it's about time, whether it's good for our country or bad for our country

short-term and dom, that's exactly what economists and investors are concerned about. >> the slowing economy is happening at a time when things are uncertain with the federal reserve and it's policies. the president also kind of calling that out as well there's no surprise here he has been very much anti-fed policy so far. how is that playing out in his current stance >> he wants them to cut rates and cut them more quickly and more sharply and the president lashing out again at the fed saying that the slow down is their fault because they won't and in association with trading partners in europe saying they will do whatever he wants them to do. there's been of late a much more rocky relationship when it comes to the u.s. and europe in trade than we have seen in recent years. >> so what's going to be up next quickly. what are we going to be

focussing on today what's on the agenda today what should we be watching now >> a number of things. the latest controversial comments about yous and democrats that were falling in the wake of him criticizing the democrats he has been talking about. the economy will continue to be a big issue today and moving forward because not only is it a money issue, but it's a political issue. president trump wants to ride a strong economy into re-election in 2020 but if the economy starts to falter, even more than it already has as economists are predicting, that could pose a political problem for it. >> the economy is key. tracie potts, live in washington, thank you for that well, it's not just the president calling out the fed, double line capital founder and ceo jeffrey gundlach out for strong words for fed chairman jay powell saying his message to the markets including a mid cycle adjustment comment has been inconsistent. the central bank lost control of

interest rates as evidenced by the federal funds rate trading higher cnbc will have complete coverage of the jackson hole fed symposium starting tomorrow including live interviews with the philly fed president and also the dallas fed president as well a very big week for central bank policy so what should investors do with all of the wide ranging market signals. joining me now is the managing director and joseph, you heard tracy, politics, wall street, it's all converging and it's playing out of the markets right now. a massive few weeks of volatility is this still a time right now where investors can feel competent about the markets? >> we're going through a consolidation period right now as i mentioned last time i was on we were heading into august-september which are two traditionally weak months for the market but we're just

consolidating and digesting. you want to digest and lay on the couch. we had a great gain in the first half of the year and it's normal price action to consolidate the gains. coming out of this in the fourth quarter, i'm expecting the market to break out of the range. let's go through that. you have a four pronged approach take us for the fundamental reason why is the growth picture doing better are growing profits doing better fundamental earnings have slowed from last year some of the manufacturing and some of the other sectors have done doing better. everyone seems to think it's going on for too long and it's been slow and steady at a 1 to 3% growth rate and it can continue at that level so

fundamentals are still strong. >> we have been flashing a lot of charts for our viewers about market charts or things that you look at as well and you mention technicals >> they control the market and continue to support the market at key levels. throughout this entire year, the volume has been strong i pay attention to what they're doing and the volume has been strong and very, very supportive it's an interesting statistic that the first half of the year, the first six months stocks and bonds were up over 10% that's only happened ten times since 1970 going forward six months and 12 months the market has been up on average 11 and 19%. >> interest rates, how does that set up now >> we are in a globally coordinated effort to keep interest rates low and markets high a lot of people argue with that and are not happy with it but interest rates when they're slow can justify higher valuations and there's a lot of liquidity out there so it's a good environment and market friendly

for when interest rates are low. >> a couple of seconds here, sentiment, why >> there's a pattern when the market goes up people get bullish and when the market comes in the interesting part is people rush for the exits very quickly. they think the market has gone on for too long and no one wants '08, 0'9 to happen again. >> a lot of topics to cover. thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. appreciate it. >> coming up on the show, tech is under fire. brian sullivan sits down with the justice department's top anti-trust watchdog to get his take on the appetite to take on big tech but first, not their finest moment one retail ceo with choice words for his company's latest performance and then later on, why walmart is taking tesla to court over solar panels. a very busy hour still ahead when worldwide exchange returns after this w?w?uhi?só'ñó

a live shot of chicago about 4:12:00 a.m. central time-out there in america's heartland. frank holland joins us with a look at those. >> good morning, we're talking high end homes, and led lights

and reporting better than expected third quarter profit on higher home prices shares are up half a percent this morning despite a decline in orders that hints at weaker demand for new homes now second quarter profit fell by 35% but they still beat estimates. sales however for the retailer missed targets same store sales were weaker than expected. the ceo says the quarter will not be remembered as one of the company's finest lower store traffic and underperformance in women's apparel lead to higher mark downs and 4th quarter earnings beat forecast but the first quarter outlook is still short of wall street estimates the ceo says the u.s. ban on huawei and softness in the led market will continue to impact the sector in the long-term. shares down more than 3% this morning. >> thank you very much for those checks and stocks on the move. >> what the justice department's anti-trust watchdog told our own

brian sullivan about the talk to take on facebook, google, and amazon, et cetera. and later on, a life or death crisis the ceo of huawei lays out his battle strategy and plan amid u.s. pressure on the on going trade war. that's coming up ♪ ♪ applebee's handcrafted burgers now starting at $7.99. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood

welcome back, the war on big technology rolls on. a number of state attorneys

general are looking into the unchecked power of large technology companies like facebook, amazon and alphabet. the justice department's top anti-trust official is sitting down with our own brian sullivan saying he has heard from a number of states on the matter and is prepared to cooperate >> whatever may come, do you feel like you have a good relationship with many of these potentially involved states? would it be a coordinated dove tailed group effort or do you envision that you would have different goals and agendas? >> i don't think we would -- again it remains to be scene ee ian gattis pate it would be in a cooperative matter that benefits everybody involved states and their enforcement objectives as well as the parties, making sure that we are engaged in an investigation without creating undue burdens

it has been known, you know, i'll refer you to the sprint t-mobile transaction where some members of the states might go a different direction than some other states and the federal government but that's just part of the challenges when you have 52 enforcement agencies. >> some have made that argument. some also point to china that had three agencies back when they created their anti-trust regime in 2008 last year, they streamlined it to have one. and there's something about efficiencies that we care about. >> it is -- >> i'm not trying to be flip here there's an important role for state a.g.s particularly for

investigations and matters that specifically effect the local communities but i think it is important for us to constantly review our whole system and see does the current enforcement apparatus continue to make sense? and if it doesn't, policy makers should take a look at that. >> you're being very candid. it's an important topic and use the r word i feel like what you guys have right now is a review based on the article based on cnbc reporting they may be ready, willing and or able to get more aggressive based on what you know, do you feel like the states may be looking at a investigation rather than a review

potential subpoenas for big technology. >> consistent with our policy not discussing our internal investigations, i think it's safe to say that we're all in the same place having had conversations with the state attorneys generals at the federal level and the state ags. i don't think they're at different stages of investigation. so -- >> is there any kind of a time line that you discussed or you can discuss here >> no. not that i can discuss. >> not that he can discuss for more on brian's conversation about the fight against big technology head over to cnbc.com when we come back on this show, we are breaking out the retail scorecard. we're going to tell you the winners, the losers and what to expect for names still on deck to report and then later on -- >> you take the red pill, you stay in wonderland and i show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. >> it is the sequel, 20 years in

the making that's bringing fan favorites back together again. it's trending. take the red to blue bipi, icllh ever one you want, when worldwide exchange returns after this break memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. with tough food, your dentures may slip and fall.

fixodent ultra-max hold gives you the strongest hold ever to lock your dentures. so now you can eat tough food without worry. fixodent and forget it. that could allow hackers devices into your home.ys and like all doors, they're safer when locked. that's why you need xfinity xfi. with the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. and people inside from accidentally visiting sites that aren't secure.

and if someone trys we'll let you know. xfi advanced security. if it's connected, it's protected. call, click, or visit a store today. welcome back stock futures, they're pointing to a decently higher open. dow jones opened up by 140

points as these gains hold into regular trading. let's get a check on this morning's other top headlines. francis rivera is live with the latest good morning, francis. >> good morning to you serious storms are wreaking havoc across the country watch as these people try to hold down a giant tent in south carolina it starts to blow away they tried to hold on. one of the men said he was lifted about 20 feet in the air before hitting the side of the building fortunately no one was injured seriously. meanwhile, the wind was strong enough in iowa to flip trucks on the interstate gusts about 70 miles per hour. once powerful movie mogul harvey weinstein wants his trial moved out of manhattan his legal team filed a motion arguing that an impartial jury cannot be found in new york city because of the media coverage.

they claim weinstein's name was mentioned online by page 6, the new york post gossip column more than 11,000 times. >> a botched pet grooming job has one florida salon in the dog house. dropped her dog off at the pet spa for a simple hair cut. look what you got. green eyebrows when she came back the owner suggests it was to cover up a bad shave job the pet spa refunded the cost of the makeover but as of now they have not faded just yet. back to you. >> they will i'm not sure how long it takes to come out. francis rivera thank you for that we appreciate it still to come on the show, one bank in denmark is paying people to take out loans to buy their next home and our next guest says it could actually happen in america too. and then later on rangebound or poised for a breakout?

where one global portfolio manager is putting his money when worldwide exchange returns right after this we call it the mother standard of care. it's how we care for our patients- like job. his team at ctca treated his cancer and side effects. so job can stay strong for his family. cancer treatment centers of america. appointments available now. canc♪r tdid you know you centers of amecan save money by using dish soap to clean grease on more than dishes? using multiple cleaners on grease can be expensive, and sometimes ineffective. for better value, tackle grease with dawn ultra. dawn is for more than just dishes. it provides 3x more grease cleaning power per drop, which cuts through tough kitchen messes, pre-treats laundry stains, and even tackles grease build-up on car rims. tackle tough greasy messes around your home,

and save money with dawn ultra. brand power. helping you better.

stocks close down yesterday for the first time in four sessions a life or death crisis that's what huawei ceo says the company faces in it's battle

with the u.s. government and attention matrix fans, there's new details on a fourth installment in the new blockbuster. a game changer for that genere it's wednesday, august 21st, you're watching worldwide exchange on cnbc welcome back to the show this morning, here's how you and your money are shaping upright now as we are halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour in new york stock futures pointing to a decent hawaiiiigher open the dow jones would open up 140 points up if these futures hold and the nasdaq up by about 61. on the bond side of things, we're seeing a slight up tick in yields across various parts of the u.s. curve including the ten year note yield which is 1.593%.

the ten year note yield 1.543% separating the two measures of interest rates let's check the asian markets. it was a mixed picture there we did see some movement off by about one quarter of 4%. the hang seng up about .1 and just about flat on the day on the europeans side of things, a higher start to the day there. the german dax up 1% and the ftse 100 in the u.k. up by 1% as well well, the consumer is a key focus this week in the united states with a number of big retailers reporting their quarterly results. courtney reagan joins us now with a sector scorecard. you can argue it's the most important sector out there. >> i like to argue that. >> because it is the driving force behind the u.s. economy. >> 70% of economic activity is tied to the consumer but it still takes more than a strong u.s. consumer so have a good quarter for a u.s. retailer. there's a number of retailers

left to report including target, nordstrom, but it's been a mixed bag despite executives pointing to a healthy u.s. consumer walmart putting up the strongest report so far beating across the board and raising it's guidance. that's including the impact of the new list for tariffs the marrying of its stores and digital offerings proving to be desirable for shoppers it's grocery business both online and in store remains a key traffic draw now home depot had a mixed report with disappointing sales and a rare cut to full year sales guidance but investors were forgiving there and shares were up after that report. many believe it's still a best in class retailer. now macy's and tapestry are among the bottom of the class. both shares down around 20% in a week macy's had a wide earnings miss after some apparel missed the mark with shoppers it hit margins prettyhard.

macy's said after a small test shoppers have no appetite for price increases from tariffs and more of those tariffs we know are coming september 1st and december 15th. now sales at tapestry's kate spade division were far worse than expected for the quarter. now investors are questioning whether turn around is even possible in the near term for kate spade coach was more in line but overall north american handbag market is pretty muted tapestry is less focused on new acquisitions instead investing on its current portfolio taking a bit of a strategy shift with how it looks to grow that business going forward. >> so it's hard to make a total generalization between bricks and mortar and online. walmart is doing okay. home depot is doing okay despite the amazon threat everywhere else but it's the brands that fast na fascinate me where is the trend for brands? where is it? >> that's a really good question and i think more brands are

trying to go direct to consumer and so some of the issue too is that you don't need to go to a ma macy's to get that brand you'll go right to the website nike is a great example. it's sold on nike.com but sold at macy's and kohl's we're seeing some differences. for instance, the athletic brands like a nike and underarmor are selling well at kohl's but not everywhere. so you can say this brand is strong at this retailer and not at another one but brands i think are very powerful and will continue to be because of the direct to consumer levis has been pretty strong that's a name that's recently public they actually had pretty good strength in europe helping to propel that. i don't know if you noticed all the levis tee shirts around new york city and the area but the brand is popular calvin klein some of the brands popular in the 90s. everything from the 90s is

coming back and cool all over again so that's brand momentum to watch too. >> stick around. we also want to bring in steve to this conversation as well he's a portfolio manager at global investment management steve, courtney layed out a perfect scorecard and landscape for what's going on in retail. it's very much haves and have notes so as we take a look at how the u.s. consumer fits into that picture, does the stock reaction you have seen this earnings week so far support the idea that the u.s. is not yet bound for recession? because the consumer is doing well >> that's right. when you look at the retail sector they're all about the concept or how attractive they are to the consumer. the consumer is strong there's no question about that you have a 50 year low, wages are rising that's fine. we're all obsessed with this yield curve and i get that it's one of the six recession indicators but none of the other five are pointing toward a recession at this point. inflation is low housing starts are still pretty good

they have come off a little bit off the highs. high yield spreads are still tight. manufacturing still in expansion territory so we all need to take a breath on this recession talk. yeah, there's risks out there, sure, but right now the u.s. consumer remained unflappable and there's no signs of weakness. >> what's curious to me is there's been various industry groups in focus over the past half decade with regard to their predictive power over the rest of the market and u.s. economy i think of things like housing and transportation stocks. semi-conductors in this whole china trade dispute. is retail becoming the indicator, the forward indicator that we could look to for the next leg higher if it's to happen >> you certainly see softening on the manufacturing side. the consumer is the big, strong strength and if that were to rollover any kind of way and you probably see it first in the labor market

i think that you'd see it there before you'd see it necessarily in confidence or spending. if that were to switch then you have to become more cautious but at this point there's no sign of that. >> what if the other five of the six end up pointing toward a recession but the consumer stays strong. >> when you look at the six recession indicators the one you don't mess around with is claims because you can go from the low to recession faster than the other ones claims go bad you get out of town when you think about the other five, every recession that's occurred since 1969, at least three of those have gone bad the way we would think about it is one goes bad that warrants your attention two start going bad you're selling highs and rallies. three more go bad or if any more

of those is claims it's time to get out of dodge. >> if that's the case, the idea here is you have these indicators with only one flashing this yellowish signal now, how do you then position still aggressively long and if so where and if not, where are you staying away from? >> so last december on a scale of 0-10 we were 8 out of 10. we pair that down all the way back to 3. i need more clarity to get aggressive and see upside. i just need to know what the earnings numbers are going to be next year. when we get a little bit more clarity on that, then i think you'll get more aggressive but

we're content to stay closer to the vest. >> we're going to get a lot more clarity in the coming few days here for the rest of this week, an all important week for retail. what are the more important earnings reports you'll be watching for the rest of the week now we have home depot yesterday. last quarter though lows had strong points that were better than home depot for the first time in awhile they're going through a turn around under a ceo lowe's will be one to watch to see if the operations are changing significantly and how close they're pairing to home depot because we're beginning to see a divergence there everyone keeps pointing to target along with walmart as the company that's really merging online, physical stores together in a way that's working for

consumers. you can argue that target and walmart are a bit more stable and lastly we have nordstrom and focus on department stores and people point to them as a service oriented company that does have a lot of loyal following t sales are weak so what's going to happen there and what does the future look like today we'll get really good and important reports to help us continue tmuch we appreciate it. >> the trade war has hit home and emotions battled chinese tech company huawei is laying out it's plan for the on going u.s. pressure. we're joined with the latest here life or death is a fairly strong way to put it. >> well, that's exactly what the company is grappling with. the company's ceo and founder layed out his plans to battle this u.s. pressure in a memo to employees in the networking

division i managed to get my hands on the memo and the plans were practical. he talked about the organization he talked about spending money on production equipment to make sure that it's able to deliver the products to customers. he also said that he would cut out redundant or repetitive roles and would cut out efficient managers potentially or reorganize them to other divisions. now huawei has been stepping up it's focus on home grown technology as it faces a cutoff from u.s. technology of course it's on this u.s. blacklist known as the entity list which restricts american companies from selling equipment and product to huawei. the u.s. government has given huawei a 90 day reprieve we have seen huawei focus a lot on core technologies the likes of semi-conductors, processes, and 5-g modems and releasing it's own system called harmony os which can work across all the devices that it has. now i want to quickly deal with the way the u.s. administration

has been approaching huawei. it's been some what of a mixed signal trump earlier this year said perhaps huawei could be part of a broader u.s.-china trade deal and then you have him saying that he wants nothing to do with huawei and then of course this reprieve and mike pompeo on cnbc was saying the message was unambiguous. that huawei is a national security threat. of course these are allegations huawei denied but as the pressure mounts he talks about this live or die moment as he looks toward the future and how huawei will weather this storm going forward. back to you. >> all right while we have you, we also want to get your take right now on a reuters headline that alibaba is delaying it's hong kong ipo listing amid all the unrest and demonstrations what can you tell us about developments there >> well, there's been a murmuring about this, it's been a rumor in the market for a couple of weeks that alibaba

could delay the ipo. it's not a surprise given the unfavorable market conditions in hong kong. doesn't come as a surprise alibaba never announced officially that it's looking for a hong kong ipo nor has it given any time line toward that. it clearly doesn't need the money if you look at the last earnings report that's very strong and it's generating a lot of money and managing to control cost as well as it invests in new areas from cloud to some of the food delivery businesses here in china so there's no pressure on alibaba to go public in the near future it could probably hold off for another few months. >> live in china right now, thank you. we appreciate it coming up on the show, could a bank one day actually pay you to have a mortgage? it might not be all that farfetched as it sounds. and then walmart is suing tesla. wall mmart is suing tesla. we'll tell you why you're watching worldwide exchange on cnbc

u.s. morgan rates are at multiyear lows and at denmark banks are paying some homeowners to take out loans so would this ever happen in the united states let's ask tim, the managing director, tim world where a bank is goinlain y teenagers negative interest rates. the idea is that i'm paying a bank to hold my money and then they're going to pay me to borrow the money obviously denmark is unique in the sense that they don't have a secondary mortgage market. i don't think it would happen in the u.s. for a number of reasons. academically it could happen but from a practical standpoint the financial system or at least the

mo mortgage financial system really wouldn't support it as best as i can tell. >> so the environment in the united states right now is some what supportive of real estate they're still relatively high with regard to values and interest rates are low we're out of the peak selling season so what do we have to look for to see what the next leg is for the overall mortgage and housing market >> it's really around the millennial population. think about it interest rates have been the savior for the housing market. right around the same interest rate market that we found ourselves in since then, property values in a lot of areas have gone up 40 or 50%. so you have interest rates back down to that level but now property values have of course gone up substantially. as millennials are creating the households we long anticipate which had is fantastic you're starting to see a sudden break this is a little bit before the interest rate dropped where about 50% of the new households are starting to rent and the

other 50% are starting to buy and there's a lot of creative forces out there in the marketplace from builders to institutional investors that are trying to find ways to entice people to rent and get hooked on that drug. >> so let's say negative interest rates really don't happen in the united states. is there a place that investors can look toward if they want to be more in the real estate market should they be buying real estate home and apartments as renters come back into the marketplace? should they be land lords? >> i hope not. it's a good investment you're seeing institutional money backing builders builders are building single family properties for the sole purpose of renting a lot of smart money is chasing that i hope not because i think the implications of that sort of market are bad you can't build wealth unless

you own stuff and the concept of millennial in our shared economy whether it be from car services to workspaces to households, i don't think it doesn't do well for the economy. so i'm hopeful that we'll find a way to entice people to get into housing. >> thank you very much for your thoughts on real estate. >> thank you. >> let's talk about what else we'll be talking about today time for this morning's top trending stories and frank holland is back with those walmart and tesla, not liking each other right now. >> not right now two of the biggest names in american business possibly heading to court walmart is suing tesla for breach of contract over a series of fires at several stores the retailers claiming the fires were called by tesla's solar panels they have been partners on clean energy for years 240 walmart stores had tesla

solar systems installed. walmart's complaint details thousands of dollars in expenses with repairs, damage to merchandise and a number of other costs. >> tesla is making a renewed push so do you think this takes a bit of that steam out of that effort >> definitely bad public relations for them especially when you have a big company like walmart coming out and they couldn't resolve this behind the scenes, so it's not great pr. >> also another big flip is going on soon. >> you're excited. >> i'm excited. >> i'm in between. >> for all of you sci-fi fans it's time to reenter the matrix. the fourth installment in the blockbuster sci-fi matrix's franchise is a go. the co-creator is set to write and direct the movie production will likely start early next year.

the flooefs y the three previous films earned more than 1.6 billion at the box office combined. >> it was a paradigm changer with regard to cinematography and the entire genere. after that special effects usage they did pretty much every other film in that category had to follow that lead so they certainly set the scene for the entire movie kind of industry going from 1999. >> they completely raised the bar. they also kind of entered like philosophical thought into sci-fi movies. one of my favorite movies, inception, i don't think would have been made if it wasn't for this they aren't sure if lawrence fishburn is going to return. >> interesting. >> that is interesting you'll talk about it at the water cool or while you're having a water bottle. water, water, everywhere but not a drop to drink in a water bottle at san francisco

international. the ban on the sale of water bottles went into effect yesterd yesterday. it applies to restaurants, caves and vending machines it follows a 2014 ordinance banning the sale of disposable plastic on city owned property. >> i will just say this as a san francisco bay area native if there was one airport that was going to ban plastic water bottles, it would be san francisco. >> there you go. we're going to leave it at that. >> thank you very much frank holland. still on deck for the show, our next guest says there is a 100% chance that a recession is coming, but the question is when that's a bit trickier. we'll hear from a veteran wall street investor coming up next and then later on today, don't miss bank of america ceo brian moynihan 40asrnimjoin squawk box live at 8: ete te. stay tuned me feel sluggish.d to make but those days are over. now i take metamucil every day. it naturally traps and removes the waste that weighs me down.

so i feel... lighter. try metamucil and begin to feel what lighter feels like.. introducing new metamucil premium blend, sweetened with stevia and made with all-natural flavors and colors. it's a delicious way to get your daily dose of fiber. try it today. that could allow hackers devices into your home.ys and like all doors, they're safer when locked. that's why you need xfinity xfi. with the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. and people inside from accidentally visiting sites that aren't secure. and if someone trys we'll let you know. xfi advanced security. if it's connected, it's protected. call, click, or visit a store today.

welcome back time for the executive recap the headlines you need in 60 seconds. goldman sachs is applying for majority control of its chinese joint venture. this comes ahead of plans to let foreigners have full control of companies there. >> italy's president is kick starting two days of talks aimed at forming a new government. prime minister conte re-signed yesterday after attacking his own interior minister. his support for the government called for new elections sending italy's political seat in chaos. and boeing has hired workers to help maintain the fleet of grounded 737 jets. regulators continue to probe issues around that model aircraft it has been a wild ride for markets for a month or so.

so not surprising investors are a little bit nervous if you take a look at sentiment, google trends says that over the last five years the times the term recession has been searched has now surged to the highest level that we have seen just in the last couple of weeks or so in five years. take into the account the inverted yield curve bumping along next to nothing and then hugely spiking over the course of the past few months and then hitting a five year high as well and if you look for the sentiment gauge about investors. check out the association for individual investors and their outlook on the market. only 23% are bullish that's far below average 32% are neutral, that's about average and bearish folks are about 45%. that's pretty high above the average bearish level. so could that be a contrarian indicator. joining me now is michael far. he is also a cnbc contributor.

michael, sentiment is not good but is it bad enough to signal a buying opportunity >> good morning, dom you know sentiment is changing and i think markets are repricing risk and repricing a bit of new information basically that's what markets do but clearly the economies, the global economy is slowing. u.s. economic growth seems to be slowing a bit. this new sign of an inverted yield curve, no matter how you look at it is not good so investors are -- we have seen a whole lot of volatility. stock prices are kind of all over the place down 175 yesterday, up 175 in the futures this morning and i think we're seeing this repricing and i think it makes sense. does it mean that the world is going to end probably not no and for every yield curve inversion that we have had, i mean, we have not necessarily had a recession. all the past recent recessions have had a yield curve inversion

but there's been a couple of these inversions that haven't. so as you get into this period of volatility as we see the economy slowing, it does make sense, i think, to derisk your portfolio a lot, a little bit at least as the risk in the market and risk to economic growth have increased. >> do we have a recession coming up >> sure. >> is it imminent? >> well, imminent is different i mean, we haven't had a recession in almost ten years. recessions are in an economy an economy expands and an economy contracts. the fed seems to have staved one off through quantitative easing and all the stimulus that they have added sooner or later you have one sooner or later it clears the air. it burns out the underbrush in your forest to prevent the other really bad forest fire they kind of have to happen. so the recession is coming

typically after a yield curve inversion, dom, 14 to 24 months is when you actually see the recession if you're going to see a recession. so yeah, it kind of makes sense that we're going to see it it kind of makes sense that we're going to see a bear market we haven't seen one in a long time these things are normal and it's through these periods that long-term investors like warren buffet endure and they make their money and they find opportunity, that the bearish signals that you mentioned are heading higher that's a reasonably good contrarian indicator and means we have longer to go in this runway where things are okay. >> a few moments left in the show here. if it's not the yield curve, what's the most important signal in your mind >> consumer. hands down when the u.s. economy is 2-thirds driven by the u.s. consumer, consumer spending has remained strong. watch that consumer spending and watch consumer debt. if you see all of a sudden that

consumer spending start to taper off and diminish a little bit, that's going to be a sign to me that we're getting closer to a recession and we to -- we could probably have a problem. >> got you we always appreciate your thoughts. >> thanks. >> that does it for worldwide exchange futures pointing to a solidly higher open at least to start the day. squawk box begins right now. >> good morning. u.s. equity futures pointing to a rebound after yesterday's losses, consumer stocks could be on the move though today we'll hear from two retailers before the opening bell. fairly important ones, lowe's and maybe more importantly target mixed messages, the president floating the idea of a payroll tax cut one day after the administration denied it was even being considered after it was rumored it was being considered and walmart is suing tesla over solar panel fires at 7 of its stores.

we'll show you how tesla stock is reacting. it's wednesday, august 21st, 2019 and squawk box begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe and andrew our guest host this morning, shark tank's kevin o'leary >> great to be here. >> great to see you today. let's take a look right now. you'll see the dow is indicated to open up by about 125 points s&p up by 16 points and then the nasdaq up by almost 60 this comes after a day of declines for the markets yesterday the dow lost 175