is. under pressure jay powell feeling the heat as he prepares to deliver highly anticipated remarks this morning in jackson hole, wyoming, investors on edge. wall street treading water as it awaits the comments from powell. the yield curve between positive and negative as markets fear the fed may not have enough ammunition to stave off a global economic slow down. >> the hawks are out to play

also taking comments from top fed president. trade turmoil, white house economic adviser larry kudlow signaling new in person trade talks with china and e-commerce on alert a new porch pirate threat that could have online shoppers running to protect their picnic baskets. it's friday, august 23rd and worldwide exchange begins right now. >> he faces one of the most divided central banks we have seen in ten years.

those comments are due out at 10:00 a.m. and we'll take you there live on cnbc those comments will be the ones traders pay the most attention to today now the stock futures indicating a higher open. the bond market always a focus right now and the ten year note yield below 1.65% and the two year note yield 1.64%. checking that spread, as you can see here we're moving and we're pretty much flat at this stage watching that level here, it's not inverted but it's goingbac and forth between positive and negative we'll keep an eye on that. let's go worldwide in the asian trade, to close out the trading week, we did see a mixed picture. the nikkei up by half a percent to japan the hang seng and hong kong with percentage moves the south korean kospi to the down side.

the german dax up .5% and ftse 100 up .75 for more on that powell push and pull and what investors want to hear, let's turn to joel, joel, thank you very much for joining us take us through what wall street really wants to hear out of fed chair jay powell today >> wall street wants to hear there's going to be some language suggesting that there will be imminent rate cuts, further rate cuts in the next few months so right now, we had previously priced in 25 to 50 basis point discount that we had one 25 point basis point drop recently and then the second one is the one that everyone is focussing on and whether we'll see more in the near future remains to be seen but people will be parsing this commentary very closely later this morning.

>> does wall street, do investors? do global markets need another rate cut to the fed? >> i think from a signaling standpoint it would be very nice to calm the markets. people are focused on this two year ten year inversion. we have heard more talk about inversion in the last couple of weeks than we probably did the prior ten years and the reality is we have a flat ratecurve an the reality is its 22 months away anyway between when the inversion occurs and we have the first true signs of a recession. >> does it concern you at all? the inverted yield curve i've heard it doesn't matter as much anymore because of massive central bank intervention around the world. so as a professional money manager, is it important for us

to pay attention to? >> i'm affected by the volatility so you can't avoid the volatility that is occurring right now with the sort of discussions when the market drops 600 or 800 points on news like this and we're talking about fractions of a percent we're talking about 10 basis points or that so i don't think it changes the way they're going to operate they're benefitted by low interest rates whether it moves by ten basis points one way or another. we're seeing a lot of activity in the marketplace comparable in terms of total market value. we had where we were last year in terms of pending deals from this point forward so we're seeing the markets moving strongly on low interest rates and most companies are able to

work just fine on this but it's the fear. >> there's a consensus building on wall street and elsewhere around the financial world that we need to have this rate cut done and we need to be on a path of rate cuts will you, as a wall street professional, be disappointed if the fed does not cut next month? >> i'll be disappointed from the standpoint that the market is going to respond negatively. >> so the market will respond negatively >> yeah. i think the market will respond negatively with so much sentiment right now based on seeing a further rate cut, i think people will respond to any signs that if there's no further rate cut it's going to be negative news. >> let's assume that a base case plays out where the fed does hypothetically cut going to the next few months toward year end what exactly should we be expecting from the markets as we head toward that >> i think where we are right

now, people forget that in may we had 4 or 5 of our biggest drops of the year and now we have another 4 or 5 in august. so may and august were very bad months but we had one of the strongest june-july since 1955 so people forget summers are usually not a big rallying period and we had a really, really strong summer and we're still 1.4% above where they are. i would like to see the small caps catch up. if we see good news with the fed i think the last quarter is going to be strong for small caps >> well, for complete coverage of all things jackson hole, continue miss insights from top market movers including the st. louis fed president james bullard and the cleveland fed

president they're coming up later on well, in corporate news, german banking giant deutsche bank facing new fines this morning. frank holland joins us with that update. >> deutsche bank will pay more than $16 million to settle foreign corruption charges regulators accused the bank of violating laws by hiring relatives of officials in russia and asia to win business in those countries. the fcc also says deutsche bank created false records to conceal the connection between employees and government officials as part of the settlement the company didn't have to admit or deny any wrong doing over the past decade the fcc cracked down on vie ratiolation the foreign corrupt practices act with multiple banks forced to face fines. >> thank you for that update when we come back on the show, the white house signaling new trade talks with china as a new round of tariffs looms a live report from the ground in china coming up next then new details in the aftermath of the incredible refinery explosion back in june

that we saw. we'll fill you in on the details and in the show, much more on what to expect from fed chairman jay powell when he takes the stage at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. we'll speak with former fed governor here on worldwide exchange a very busy ur sllhehoti aad keep it right here these folks, they don't have time to go to the post office they have businesses to grow customers to care for lives to get home to they use stamps.com print discounted postage for any letter

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welcome back, the dow will open up about 88 points. the s&p 500 up by about 11 points and the nasdaq would open up by about 40 points again if the gains hold the trump administration is planning for a new round of in person talks between u.s. and chinese officials next month this comes as a new set of tariffs are set to go into effect on september 1st. >> thanks so much. i'm coming to you from a factory here in the industrial town and president trump says that american companies are pulling their supply chains out of china. well, that's not as easy as it sounds as we found out.

>> he helps a michigan based start up that specializes in industrial lighting. they were hit with 25% tariffs in may and expects more products to be struck on september 1st. that pushed him to explore other countries to source his goods but none could match china factories like this are the only ones that can make what he needs at the cost. workers have experience and the only supply of the product is here. >> those help the supplier shrug off the u.s. tariffs they have been manufacturing in china for 25 years. >> any additional cost is bad.

so it doesn't pay us a lot. >> so then you don't split the cost >> we don't. >> have your orders from the u.s. gone down because of the tariffs? >> no, in fact we see increase. >> that means they have to contend with the extra cost and uncertainty of the trade war. >> the tariffs are concerning not only for the impact in the cost and pricing today but also in our planning going forward. >> how does that impact our position in the marketplace? that's critical to us. >> and for other american businesses too. >> he would love to make his products in the united states but he's waiting for the infrastructure to be there and hopes it happens one day but for now he says his best choice is still china despite the tariffs. >> so eunice, it's interesting that you're bringing this up because it's one of the things that it's not talked about as much this idea that these supply

chains are not as easy to move as some people think there's the idea that suppliers could work with vendors in the united states to mitigate the damage and share in the pain is that something that plays out more prevalently than we think here >> it's very, very difficult to be able to uproot a supply chain because the whole point in what we see in manufacturing over the last several decades is a lot of the supply chains and various parts and components and everything has moved to one certain area he looked in another place that has suppliers and that's southeast asia and even there he said the skill set of the people

is not developed enough. the experience level is still not quite there for the type of product that he is in. that's another big factor he has to face. not to mention the fact that a lot of other companies, american companies are looking now for other places to go and they're all competing in these smaller countries and they're able to accommodate all the american companies. >> it's a big story for a lot out there. thank you for that update. new developments in the unrest in hong kong google says it's axing more than 200 youtube channels after they had been found to misinformation about the hong kong protestors this comes days after twitter and facebook said they would suspend 1,000 accounts linked to a state backed disinformation campaign originating from china. much more on this story as it develops well, still on deck for the show, your stock of the day, set

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welcome back to worldwide exchange making headlines this morning, bio fuels producer wants to buy the philadelphia energy solutions refinery that was badly damaged by fire that happened back in june. the company wants to convert the plant to make renewable diesel and jet fuels so we'll see if that developing story takes hold there. a possible oil refinery if this goes through let's get a look at the stock movers so far. sales force shares are risiing after the software company reported better than expected results and gave guidance. that's important >> there's a huge wave of digital transformation i have the opportunity and mark has the opportunity to go around the world and talk to a lot of other ceos and there's a huge

imperative around digital transformation and everyone needs to get closer to the customer and everybody is trying to improve the customer experience and that's where sales force really brings value to the table. >> investors like that story sales force shares are up by 6.25% in extended hours trading. u.s. toy maker hasbro is buying entertainment 1 for about $4 billion in cash and if you don't know them, entertainment one is the owner of the popular preschool brand peppa pig. entertainment one in british trading up by 32%. well, gap same store sales missing estimates in the latest quarter after all the brands experienced a sales decline. gap shares dived as much as 7% in the after market trade before rebounding a little bit. right now in the early morning off by about 2% premarket. well still to come on worldwide exchange, the astounding number you will not believe that commuters spend in traffic every year i'm a commuter, i know

it might make you envy our early morning schedule here in the united states. but it's not just big technology a number of states attorney general taking on what they call the number one consumer complaint. robo calls you know what they're talking about. details when worwi ehae tus ter thisng

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welcome back the dow opened up by 68 points the s&p up by 10 points and the nasdaq up by 35. on the oil side of things a little bit of movement and it has been a focus for many traders. let's get a check on this morning's other top headlines. francis rivera is live with the latest good morning, happy friday. >> happy friday to you we start this morning with a huge fraud crack down that is effecting a whole lot of americans. federal agents arrested dozens of people accused of taking part in an international fraud ring they allegedly tricked businesses into making bogus transfers while using fake romance schemes in a 252 count federal inindictment the 80 defendants are accused of

hacking e-mail accounts to convince more than 30 companies and individuals to transfer money allegedly making off with $6 million and attempting to scam another 40 million. fires continue to devastate the amazon rain forest concerns are growing throughout the world that the burning land could be lost and could no longer produce 20% of the planet's oxygen. now most of these infernos were intentionally set. the biggest phone companies are pledging to deploy technology to defeat the robo calls and help catch fraudsters in july alone there were 4.7 billion calls. they agree to deploy new call blocking technology and trace robo calls to their source

>> i get three to five of those on average a day and they're all coming from ones i should recognize in my own area code. >> i hope you're not answering them. >> i'm totally screening my calls. >> coming up, an interview you can't afford to miss sarah bloom raskin weighs in on everything from what we can expect from powell today to fears in a global economic slow down a lot to cover when worldwide exchange returns right after this i had a few good tricks to help hide my bladder leak pad. like the old "tunic tug". but always discreet is less bulky. and it really protects. 'cause it turns liquid to gel. so i have nothing to hide. always discreet.

fed in focus, a big day ahead for jay powell as he delivers a major address in jackson hole wyoming investors are watching we'll ask what the markets want to hear from fed chair jay powell plus yogi stole picnic baskets but this bear is living in the age of e-commerce and that means it has a whole different kind of target the video going viral this morning. it is friday, august 23rd, you're watching worldwide exchange right here on cnbc. welcome back to worldwide exchange i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan this morning. let's get right to the markets and where they stand stock futures are pointing to what should be a higher open right now. the averages have been range

bound in the recent days as investors await to hear comments from fed chair jay powell today. the dow opens up about 68 points the s&p up about 9 points and the nasdaq up about 33 checking in on the flight to safety and treasuries we are seeing a bit of a move higher now in yields so a little bit of price reduction in treasuries. yields moving higher 10 year note yields right now 1.645% and 2 year note yields 1.638% meaning that spread between 10 year note yields and two year note yields is just about flat we'll keep watching it it's been between positive and negative territory over the course of the past couple of days in global markets right now, the asian trade was generally positive the nikkei and japan up abo about .5% and the kospi is off .1%. green across the board there the cac in france up .5% and the

ftse mib up .5% as well as traders continue to pay attention to the political turmoil in italy let's turn back to the fed and chairman jay powell. he is due to make his opening remarks at the jackson hole symposium in less than five hours from now jay powell will be facing what could be the most divided fed in recent years as a number of key fed leaders have been speaking with cnbc expressing their doubts over whether the recent rate cut and the possibility for future easing actions is appropriate. >> i didn't think the cut was appropriate necessarily. i'm on hold right now. >> my sense was we have added accommodation and it wasn't required in my view. so i'm observing the down side risk and right now i'm really focused on what they have to do

to achieve the mandates. we're in a good place relative to the mandates. >> i was in favor of the rate cut in july. it was appropriate to make an adjustment part of this job was to be forward looking and there's a risk management part of the job and i want to take all the time between now and september to assess how the economy is acting and i'd like to avoid having to take further action. >> joining us now is former federal reserve governor and former deputy u.s. treasury sarah bloom raskin she is also a cnbc contributor good morning and thank you for joining us this morning. we appreciate it can you take us through whether it takes a little bit of president trump's attention and

puts it on others in the fed besides jay powell >> so, jackson hole is a terrific opportunity to hear some of the individual voices of the voters on the federal open market committee and that's what we're starting to hear. we shouldn't be afraid of the voices the more perspectives that can be voiced and articulated about the huge challenges ahead the better off we're all sevened as americans and a better path that we'll be on in terms of the future course of the economy and as you know, we have a number of challenges ahead monetary policy is dealing with a lot. there's the persistent question of why inflation has been below target that's one of the things that monetary policy has to struggle with another question of course has been the recent trade volatility and that trade volatility has done a number of things and a

continuous on off uncertainty with the tensions in the trade talks and then of course bigger questions. questions about whether, if in fact we're moving into a downturn and the indicators are coming in negative, what is the future ammunition for monetary policy how many more tools does the fomc have and when do the tools get deployed so the questions really mounting are quite significant. so the jackson hole convening is a terrific opportunity to hear some of the voices and for the members of the federal open market committee to lift themselves up from the

day-to-day management of the economy into bigger questions. >> i mean, i have a question and i have been asking it among many of our guests and sources that i have on wall street, i simply ask this, what causes a recession, we talk about the economic data and whether it supports the idea, it's unclear to me what is going to be the thing that drives us into a recession? >> that's an excellent question dommic a dominic and technically speaking we don't know if we're in a recession until after the fact because of course the technical definition of a recession has to do with a subsequent look back in downturn and we don't know when we're in it

it could be a single event that cat li catalyzes a major downturn you can see an accumulation of the growth transition mechanism starting to break down or not perform as they should sometimes you see liquidity issues and those issues become signals that things aren't working as they should so sometimes it's not really a single event sometimes it's really a c confluence of different factors. >> you have been in that room before as interest rate decisions are made and deliberated. what exactly are the most important things that the fed that you are apart of and perhaps this fed are looking toward to make sure that the u.s. economy does stay intact for as long as it can? so what they're charged with by law is the dual mandate. that's what they're focused on

and need to stay focused on. two primary goals. one, maximizing employment and two, ensuring price stability so those are the pieces they need to hold on. >> is there any question that those two mandates are possibly influx right now it seems to me both fronts are fairly stable at this front and unemployment remains at decades lows so on the employment side, yes, if you look at one indicator, the unemployment rate you would conclude essentially things must be fine but there's a whole host of labor indicators and those labor indicators should all be looked at. we should be looking at wages and how many people want to be working full time but can only get part time jobs

so there's a whole host besides the unemployment rate. to do its job right when it focuses on the employment side of the mandate it wants to look at all of those indicators everything they can. in then in terms of having to do with the price stability and inflation rate you'll remember that the fomc had set -- it's arbitrary but set a 2% inflation target and has not reached that. so from that mandate's perspective there's still work to do. >> i also want to bring up this point. this is probably the most politicized fed we have seen in years at this point. president trump has obviously been very vocal about his

criticisms with the fed and chair jay powell and with policy in general >> jay powell and the federal reserve have totally missed the call i think they're being very tardy in not doing it. >> interest rates are low. i think i could be helped out by the fed but the fed doesn't like helping me too much. jay powell should be cutting rates because every country all over the world is cutting it and we want to stay sort of even. >> does the fed want to or need to or should they help the president or is this all about the data and economic situation in america at this point >> it should be about the data and economic situation in america. it should be about the risks that are facing the path toward

prosperity but they're going to have to screen out the noise it's not helpful and it can be counter productive and it's not what they need to be listening to right now and frankly the american people don't want them listening to it. the american people actually want them to stay independent and to be a credible force for helping us all achieve a level of prosperity. you were a deputy treasury secretary on the fiscal side of things what could be done in america right now from a fiscal standpoint from the treasury side of things to improve or prolong the economic expansion as well? >> so you're exactly right to be pointing to the other tool here. we have monetary policy which are an important set of tools but fiscal policy is equally as

important and a lot of eyes will be turning toward the role of fiscal policy. it's a limited one and it has different sorts of targets and certain different audiences. different transition mechanisms in fiscal policy but fiscal policy is a very important set and potentially powerful set tool. now it probably needs a little sharpening a lot -- you know, the deficit right now is quite high. some of the ammunition that could have been used in a downturn has been used in these tax cuts over the last several years and unfortunately the sort of sugar high from those tax cuts is waning the congressional budget office warned americans now that the

deficit is at a very high level. this is of concern to fiscal policy makers. because fiscal policy makers themselves need to know how much room they have to stimulate the economy and stimulate it in a meaningful way if, in fact, called upon to do so because of the downturn. >> a lot of complex issues to deal with. sarah bloom raskin, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks. >> well, for complete coverage for all things jackson hole, look no further than cnbc for insights from top market movers including st. louis fed president and cleveland fed president. all of those interviews coming up later on today. well, coming up on this show, is your commute a nightmare you're not alone a new study will tell you exactly how much time you spend sitting in traffic that jaw dropping statistic coming up next and then -- >> the fastest way i know to get

a picnic basket. >> hey, boo boo, yogi bear is not the only four legged thief on the loose these days. the amazing video of a different hungry bear when worldwide exchange returns after this. do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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shares are off about 9% in the extended trade time for this morning's top trending stories and we turn to frank holland. >> it's baseball season. a little bit of a baseball story. major league baseball will not allow players to take part in the venezuelan winter league this year. they're still seeking clarification on how to comply with u.s. sanctions on venezuela but said the ban would not prevent them from returning home in the off season. major and minor league players hoping to keep their skills sharp in the off season. so one good thing is very light traffic. texas a&m researchers figured out the average american commuter spends an extra 54 hours each year just sitting in traffic. >> i believe it. >> it's easy to believe, especially around here in new york that's more than two full days in congested traffic over the time it would take if traffic just moved freely like we would all like it too.

>> it's would one of the most appealing parts of waking up on i-95, i can count the number of cars i passed on one or two hands by the time its done i love driving but i hate traffic. >> it's not just time. it's also money. we're losing $2 trillion in business sales between now and 2025 because of that congestion. >> i believe that too. >> there you go. all right. well, investors are not the only ones hyped up. take a look at this, this bear decided to do his best yogi bear impression but he's stealing a box of pet food from chewy straight off a porch the family dog did not go hungry as a result of this thievery chewy offered to send a free replacement but maybe the family should request a sign for the package on delivery.

>> what is that? paw prints >> but guess what, investors not bearish about the stock. it's up 40% this year. >> i got my dog food delivery yesterday but i don't know if a bear would go after it because it's vacuum sealed and i don't know if it would smell it. >> i don't know that yogi bear reference. do people nowadays even get that anymore? >> yogi bear and boo boo >> yeah. that's back in the day. >> it was so good. >> it still is good now. thanks very much on deck for the show it's wheels up for the president in a matter of hours as he heads to the g-7 summit in france plus will jay powell's speech at jackson hole move the markets? what you should beat wching for when the fed chair takes the stage this morning worldwide exchange will be back right after this you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out.

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they want to buy the refinery badly damaged in june they want to make renewable, diesel fuels a number of backers of libra are looking to distance themselves from that project. the financial times says regulatory scrutiny of the digital currency spooked some of the potential investors and amazon will reportedly no longer news tips to pay delivery drivers basal e salaries a number of services came under fire earlier this year when news broke that they were saving money by subtracting tip money from salaries.

amazon confirms to the verge that it will pay drivers a salary and then tips will be added on top of the wages. >> well, the g-7 summit will be held in france this weekend. aman will be covering that event for us and he joins us now from our washington d.c. bureau this morning with a preview i guess it's fair to say the other seven countries that will be there will all be talking about president trump. >> absolutely. you remember what happened last year when the president left the g-7 event in canada. he was tweeting angrily about the canadian prime minister. angela merkel called the outcome of the last g-7 depressing and sobering so there's a low bar this year. a lot of the experts we have been talking to during the course of the week are referring to this as the g-7 minus one or the g-6 given that the president doesn't like the multilateral engagements with other nations this is the gathering of advanced democracies but this is

a president that would prefer to work on a uni lateral basis. they're representing all the advanced democracies, the president has specific concerns he brings in and he's going to hope to make his case particularly on trade. the white house is very focused on this idea of currency manipulation there's concern about the white house about this idea of a french digital tax meanwhile, they may not even bother with the document at the end of the g-7 in which they all layout their goals and what they have agreed to the last time they couldn't get the president to sign on to it this time they say they're not even going to bother yesterday i asked larry kudlow, the national economic counsel director at the white house what he made of that. does it make a difference if there's no communique going in here's what he said. >> i'm perfectly happy with no

communique having gotten heavily involved last year in quebec on that where it was rewritten, i don't know if anybody reads it and it doesn't mean anything to me at all. >> so no communique. maybe no agreements. very low expectations but in a lovely setting in south of france. >> the question is whether there's a formal motion by the united states. the president said he would sign on to it he believes that russia should be back in the g-7, make it the g-8 again as it was up until 2014 the leaders removed russia after russia annexed crimea as punishment for the land grab but now the president says that was simply vladimir putin outsmarting barrack obama and russia should be back in not sure that's going to go over well with everybody, particularly germany

so that could be one of the potential clash points over the weekend. >> thank you for that update we appreciate it back to the markets. fed chair jay powell's big speech today coming up a modestly higher open if these gains hold at the opening bell joining us is the u.s. economist for ubs. i want to pose the same question to start that i posed to sarah bloom raskin, what causes a recession and are we there >> we don't think we're there. what causes a recession is either a demand shock or supply shock. something goes amiss in the economy. in the current situation we think it's traceable back to the supply shock, tariffs. in 2015 that's caused by problems in the energy market. in 2008 we had the little issue with thehousing market. >> little issue. >> just a tiny little thing.

or they get nervous about the future. >> are there any signs of that happening right now? >> we don't think so we don't think so. we remain relatively optimistic on the underlying u.s. economy yes, sharp slowing, q-4, q-1 we have seen manufacturing from that a long ways. tariffs are big. we have another round of tariffs coming up. it makes us a little bit nervous but you look through all of that and we think the trends are okay what we don't see in particular is what jay powell is afraid of this is confidence shock permeated through the economy. why are long-term yields dropping like a stone and why are they negative in japan and

germany? >> you have to look back and look at the risks to the outlook. so we're pretty optimistic we're on the bullish side of the economy and yeah with this next round of tariffs coming on, we still see elevated risks of recession over the next 12 months that matters for bond markets who have to take into consideration both what is most likely to happen but then everything else in that distributi distribution. >> is this where the u.s. is the best house on a bad block? >> not only is it the best house on a bad block but it's a pretty good house at the oment. we see a strong recovery in manufacturing. low levels that had that drop. we see that household sector still booming. we have yet to see true cracks in the u.s. economy. >> all right so it doesn't appear as though the u.s. economy is due for a recession any time soon at least in your opinion?

>> that's correct. >> all right rob martin, thank you for the thoughts on the economy and the u.s. situation at large. that does it for worldwide exchange this morning, futures pointing to decent gains to start the day. we'll see if they carry into the 10:00 a.m. speech by fed chair jay powell have a great weekend squawk box approximapicks up co right now. >> the weekend seems so far away good morning, the countdown is on fed chair jay powell feeling the heat as he prepares to deliver highly anticipated remarks later this morning in jackson hole we have a big line-up of central bankers ahead of the speech to talk about what we might hear. new signals from the white house on taxes in trade. economic adviser larry kudlow. familiar easing the potential for a tax cut before election day and new in person trade talks with china plus is facebook's digital currency in jeopardy a new report says some early

libra backers are looking to distance themselves after a regulatory backlash. it's friday august 23rd, 2019 and squawk box begins right now. >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning, welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site on times square this morning. kelly evans is hanging out with us. >> what? kelly. >> kelly evans is here >> look at you >> what part of look at me -- >> look at you being here. >> i'm excited to be here. i haven't told andrew my news yet. >> i was just saying i thought of you immediately. >> back on social media. >> she is back on social media.