welcome to street signs. these are your headlines italian ten year bond yields make a fresh three year low as coalition talks continue between the five star movements ahead of a crucial deadline later today. >> european stocks follow china and the u.s. into the red while the bond market flashes another recession warning as the spread between the u.s. two and ten year treasury yields inverts

further. bp shares jump after it sheds alaska assets for $5.6 billion pulling out of the state after 60 years as it seeks to boost it's balance sheet thomas cook agrees to key terms of a rescue package with stake holders sending shares sharply lower as brokers warn it may lead to a delisting of the stock: a very warm welcome to street signs big day in italy not only on a political front but we have a little bit of data on the confidence front we have italian consumer confidence for the month of august that's fallen to 111.9 versus july at 113.3. in terms of business confidence, that has fallen to 98.9 versus

101.2 in july so that is below the 100 level. that's fallen to 9.7 a ton census looking for 99.8 and that's dropl whiche have seen in july. so moral taking a hit. he called the end to the coalition and called for a snap election now you just saw there on the screen, the euro trading slightly higher versus the dollar you can see it's fairly resilient. let me bring you up to speed in terms of the politics in italy the talks hang in the balance ahead of today's deadline to find an agreement. negotiations have resumed following a day of sessions that

teetered on the brink of collapse as both parties haggled over key cabinet jobs. let's take a look at the italian ten year it hit a fresh three year low after talks appeared to end on a positive note with both sides saying progress has been made are they going to pull it off? >> we could get an announcement with and him being given the mandate as soon as today or even tomorrow so i'm standing right in front of the presidential palace this is where it's all happening. consultations will continue this afternoon and if all goes to

plan he'll give him the mandate to form a government after which the parliament will vote on the names being submitted but let me take it back a little bit. there was a little bit of a roller coaster session when it comes to the consultations yesterday and that's true because according to reports initially there was opposition by lawmakers but it seems as though the last couple of days they relented a little bit on their resistant and perhaps in exchange for the formation of the government finance minister obviously crucial when we talk about it y

italy. one of the names is the reinstatement of the former finance minister widely known and expected in the markets. so that would be a positive development. another key post is eu commissioner representation. they'll have to navigate the dialogue between brussels and roam it's a very crucial position to take on. in terms of policy objectives one thing is very clear, if they want to work on the foundation of italy being a fundamental part of europe and changing the narrative away from a combative approach toward one that's more inclusive. a second point and this is crucial as we head to the

important budget discussions is they want to avoid that tax hike set to take place in january 2020 that's put in law by previous budgets and would amount to 23 billion euros but budget terms would be a tightening coming at a time when the economic situation is not so positive it could be also from the perspective of putting it in order. >> so many moving parts. thank you for the comprehensive overview of where we stand in terms of a potential new coalition. >> where is salvini in all of this conti was delivering the scathing remarks we haven't heard much from him over the last couple of days. >> it's a question that certainly many people are asking and i it's a group of supporters

standing outside of parliament holding up a sign saying we want elections now and certainly that was the gamble that he took when he pulled the plug on the coalition and thought that would put in place a series of sequencing that would lead to snap elections perhaps underestimating the ability and willingness to enter into talks with one another. now what is interesting is since the past week or so and since he pulled the plug on the coalition, popularity has dropped a little bit we're polling as high as 37 or 38% about a week ago now it's around 33% spending on which poll you're looking at so this drop in popularity is something that they're looking at closely thinking that they perhaps could benefit if they enter into coalition government

now. and perhaps reintroduce that friendly face lacking the last 15 to 16 months and back in the day it was north of 45% and they dropped to 17% they were around 33% now they drop to around 17 to 18%. so there's a cycle in italian politics whereby if you have a simple majority now it doesn't mean that you're going to hold on to that and that is the bet 5 star and pd are gambling on buying a little bit of time. >> you mention old familiar

faces. one name that reemerged in the news lately is former prime minister and tell me how he fits into this complicated picture that you just describe for us. >> so the dynamics are also interesting as well. remember pd, there's no love lost to the party and the 5-star movement so very unlikely bedfellows you would say now that they're all of a sudden looking to enter into a coalition government together who was the key person that put together that proposal former prime minister and former leader of the pd party, he was the person that startled the italian public by saying, look, you should look and explore entering into the coalition government and put aside it. and present a united front and more friendly face when it comes to europe and it's the chance of having this coalition succeed. now it's also coming at an interesting time for pd as well.

they have a new pd leader at the beginning of this year so he is the one that's in the driving seat but it wasn't that we need to be open to the idea of working 5-star and the whole party started to move in that direction. and let's not forget that could be one consideration and that pd don't want to keep maintaining these hostile relationships with the 5-star movement and want to keep things on mutual territory. they would be on their side. so definitely, i mean, there's a lot of politics going on a key player in italian politics yet again. >> thank you so much we look forward to getting back out to you in rome let's take a look at european markets and see how things

stand. over an hour into the trading session, the stoxx 600, down so a bit of retreat and still hanging on let's get to the markets and see where the different regions looked like. the ftse 100 is now out performing 0.1%. sterling of course a huge driver of the moves seen in the stock market yesterday sterling hit a one month high against the dollar and that came after developments on the brexit front with opposition leaders so that getting priced into a degree into the pound and now the ftse 100 yesterday we saw wall street sink and that's where it comes to stocks along side another warning signal from the bond market and this is to be spread

and inverted further now the treasury yield at 1.48%. that's the picture for global yields a key driver of global markets let's get back to italy and europe we just got an update. he's on the ground in rome it's been a real roller coaster from the potential coalition partners how do you see this playing out? >> both parties have a lot of disagreement this will probably workout and if so, that would be very good news for italy if they look at the bond market,

1.1 almost that is the dream that opens up a little fiscal space that will make it easier for them to come to an agreement over the budget. it's not long ago we were worried about the sense of excessive yields and that's by and large positive rather than negative development that we're seeing in italy and if you look at the potential stability this coming together of the pd and five star took him by surprise and a lot of people by surprise. yes bond markets are reacting positively because short-term perhaps they avert a face-off with brussels but aren't they kicking the can down the road? >> well, that's another word for muddling through in a way. italy has serious long-term problems it's high debt burden and low

trend growth rate but it's still progress if now in this kind of new government we're getting, the democrats bring out sort of the best in the five stars rather than to what to some extent they have done bringing out the worst. so if we get through the rough economic times that's kicking the can down the road. yes, and that is progress. >> it's nothing to scoff at i suppose. >> conti has been a fascinating story to watch we saw him giving his resignation and delivering scathing remarks just beside salvini and now we're seeing him reemerge potentially at the helm of the new coalition do you think that speech worked to his benefit >> yes, very much so by finally distancing himself.

he's now one of the most popular politicians in italy having come out of nowhere 18 months ago he has played this well. he's kind of a figure or used to be a figure. he probably is acceptable to a lot of italians even though who are not quite sure about this five star movement >> how much do you think the rally we have seen is actually driven by the political situation versus expectations for the ecb to come out in september with this that would benefit the italians. >> of course they have been driven by the recession risk that comes out of trump's trade wars and the hard brexit risk, having said that to have an italian government crisis and italian yields and

that's a clear sign that the change in italy, hope it will happen, will be positive relative to the confrontation that he has been gearing up to recently. >> and perhaps just broadening this out and looking at what the ecb is doing for europe more broadly, we heard there was an interview over the weekend with the chief a known hawk and he was explaining the case for easier policy from the ecb do you think the ecb is missing the mark that at this point they have already gone down the path of negative rates. it's not stimulated growth in the euro zone. we saw the power house of europe is stalling. is it really the right time for them to be going down for more easing more negative rates? the central bank with

extremely low rates cannot do very much to really stimulate demand if businesses are afraid of trump's trade war. and then it moves over into the real economy and what they can do is make sure that everybody does exist and we can continue the current situation where the real economy is doing not very well heading toward stagnation in the euro zone but financial markets, lending business conditions in the financial industry, your access to credit none of that seems to be in danger and that's good that the central banks preserve at least that part of it.

>> thank you we have plenty more to discuss after this break the festival in the spanish city today the annual event was first held in 1945 and is said to stem between local villagers. tomatoes were used in last year's celebration messy images for you hopefully those festival goer are not wearing any clothing that they want to wear again we're going to take that short break but coming up on street signs, warning lights are flashing red, just like those tomatoes as the u.s. treasury yield curve inverts further. more analysis when we come back. ♪ i planned each charted course ♪ ♪ each careful step ♪ along the byway ♪ much more ♪ much more than this

♪ i did it my way (announcer) verizon is america's most awarded network and the only one with the galaxy note10 5g. right now, when you buy one, you get a galaxy note10 free. that's verizon. the first survivor of alzis out there.ase and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen. but we won't get there without you. join the fight with the alzheimer's association.

as early as today the report cites a single course and sterling is down 0.5% versus the

dollar this comes after a rally versus the dollar and hits a one month high let's look at the implication for the ftse it can turn positive and you had a moment to go they have fallen to their lowest level off the back of the report you have the ten year gilt down about 0.02 and the ftse 100 as i mention there. that's trading higher to the tune of about 0.2% so right in lock step with sterling coming off. it's unconfirmed at this point and developments emerge over the last hour or so. bp is exiting alaska after 60 years in the state the british oil major has agreed to sell all of it's properties to privately held hilcorp

energy bp has been reducing it's operations in alaska where oil production declined amid the rise of u.s. shell it's also part of the plan to raise $10 billion. thomas cook has agreed commercial terms of its rescue package. they'll inject 450 million pounds in return for at least 75% of the company's tour operator unit and 25% of the airline business banks and note holders will also invest 450 million pounds but for 75% of the airline and 25% of the tourism business. the company plans to maintain, it's down about 15% on the back of the news. >> the federal reserve reiterated that political considerations claim no role in it's decision making it comes after former new york fed president william dudley hit out with the trade war at china

describing it as a manufactured disaster in the making in a bloomberg op-ed dudley suggested the fed should refuse to play along by cutting rates arguing that support could encourage the president to escalate trade tensions and in an unprecedented move for a former fed official, dudley said the central bank could send a clear signal it quote won't bailout the administration and that president trump will quote own the consequences of his actions including the risk of losing the 2020 election so that story gaining a huge amount of traction yesterday twitter in an up roar reacting to dudley's comments and the unprecedented statement from the fed spokesperson in reaction to his op-ed. let's take a look at the u.s. yield curve. the u.s. yield curve inversion deepened with the ten year rate at the lowest level against the two year since the financial crisis meanwhile, the 30 year yield hit a fresh record low and is now

further below the three month bill as i mentioned in the open, european markets and the weakness we have seen today come through. a lot of this has come back on the back of the warning signal we got yesterday driving losses for wall street. well let's get back to our conversation with the chief economist. let's pick up there on the comments from dudley as i just mentioned there, gained a huge amount of attention. his really strong comments and triggering a response from the fed now reassuring that the political considerations play absolutely no role in policy making do you think the administration is counting on the fed to underwrite the u.s.-china trade war? >> in effect, yes. this is what we see in the u.s the fed doesn't have much of an alternative. it's not the fed's mandate to meddle in politics it's the too take politics and e the world as it is

to do what is needed to preserve it's mandate to meet it's mandate of full employment and price stability. so if trump, which is definitely what he is doing, jeopardizes the economy and the labor market and the global economy and the economic outlook has darkened. now are we headed for recession in the last 12 months? >> the yield curve is not yet telling us that we're heading for a u.s. recession and we're heading for a u.s. slow down which could be easily a slow down to be low trend growth and we're living in a world of very low interest rates and yields and very low term premium relative to earlier

decades. and the result that i would say the same inversion of the yield curve today and this new environment doesn't have the same strong message as before and now 50 basis points more over the inversion to signal the same recession risk that the yield curve did signal in similar episodes in the past. >> so the magnitude of that inversion is really important to watch. >> yes if we widen and widen this inversion ever further then indeed the yield curve will signal not just the slow down and some recession risk but the yield curve would eventually signal a recession to come in a way, this could be a feedback that if there are serious recession risks in the u.s., at the moment, then it is more likely that the trump administration will actually take notice and hopefully do finally it's best to solve at least partly the trade dispute with china

the more it may have the benefit of getting the attention of donald trump. >> if we do see the federal reserve cut by 50 basis points in september do you think that's going to be enough to get the yield curve back into positive territory? >> i don't think it will be 50 basis points a cut is probably coming within the next few fed sessions. and secondly i don't think it will do a lot to the curve because markets are pricing in significant cuts anyway. >> all right well, thank you very much for the outlook. well coming up on street signs, u.k. opposition parties join forces in a bid to thwart a no deal brexit but can they pull it off? the story straight ahead

♪ ♪ ♪ applebee's handcrafted burgers now with endless fries starting at $7.99. and get more bites for your buck with late night half-priced apps. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood.

the first survivor of alzis out there.ase and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen. but we won't get there without you. join the fight with the alzheimer's association. with tough food, your dentures may slip and fall. fixodent ultra-max hold gives you the strongest hold ever to lock your dentures. so now you can eat tough food without worry. fixodent and forget it.

european stocks follow china and the u.s. into the red as the spread between the u.s. two and ten year treasury yields inverts further. sterling slides on an

unconfirmed bbc report that the queen could be asked to suspend parliament as early as today throwing an obstacle on the path of lawmakers hoping to thwart a no deal brexit italian yields hit a fresh three year low on hopes on a coalition agreement between five star and pd and bp shares jump after the oil major sheds it's alaska assets for $5.6 billion pulling out of the state after 60 years as it seeks to boost it's balance sheet >> well, let's get a look at european markets we're about 1.5 hours into the trading session. we're coming off of a difficult day for wall street where markets reacted to what was going on in the bond space with the u.s. treasury markets flashing at yet another recession signal after the

spread between the u.s. 2 and 10 year treasury yield inverted further so that filtered through to investor sentiment. it's also driving weakness here in europe today. you have the dax down 0.2% the cac and ftse each down a third of a percent and the ftse 100 up nearly .4% and that comes on the back of sterling weakness this morning yesterday we saw sterling rally to a one month high versus the dollar now today sterling is down about 0.7% so losing ground as we speak around 1.22. this comes along side as we mention in the headlines an unconfirmed bbc report that the queen could be asked to suspend parliament as early as today yesterday we heard from opposition lawmakers that they agree to try to come up with a solution to prevent a no deal brexit and now this unconfirmed report filtering through for

investors today as well. let's see what we're looking at there. we have the three major indices looking at a bit of a rebound today. the weakness we're seeing in europe has come on the back of weakness in wall street and we're going to see a bit of a rebound there and modest moves and let's get back to brexit and the top story over the last few minutes anyway reports sites a single source and the ftse turned positive while they have fallen to their lowest level since august 7th. ftse 100 up 0.5% at the moment boris johnson pursue a brexit delay if he fails to secure a deal with the eu they also agree to put a no confidence vote on hold.

downing street must listen to british lawmakers. >> it's important that we get on with a process that prevents the prime minister acting in defiance of the will of parliament that was demonstrated by the enormous majority saying we do not believe it they need to respect parliament and understand the role of parliament is to be able to question and challenge the executive. that is what it exists for. >> a high against the dollar and the euro following the meeting of opposition politicians. you have on your screen the progression of the euro over the last several days. that's at 1.2197 meanwhile, juncker told boris johnson the block is opening to hearing his proposals to the backstop providing they are compatible to the agreement. ready to leave the block whatever the circumstances on october 31st

i'm now joined by dominic walsh. thanks for joining me this morning. i was all set to come in and start our conversation now the queen may be asked to suspend parliament as early as today. that is unconfirmed because i don't want to put too much weight on it what would be the implication of suspending parliament? >> it seems like a rapid fire response to the gathering yesterday and it was interesting that yesterday opposition parties seemed to settle on the kind of legislative route rather than going straight for a vote of no confidence it will be interesting to see whether the tactics remain the same if this announcement turns out to be true so the issue with the legislative method is that it takes time you have to have several amendments last time it was a rolling process over several weeks and months and the report suggests that parliament would be suspended from mid september to mid october and could kind of

cut out a large chunk of the time they would be hoping to lose to table those proposals. so what you might see is as soon as parliament returns on september 3rd, they'll have a new sense of urgency and try to do things as soon as possible. but should they struggle to actually pass legislation in a timely manner, that's going to be really difficult. how do you see them changing what do they then do the opposition >> well, i think part of the legislative proposal will now turn to trying to prevent suspension of parliament rather than directly focussing on the no deal issue. you might see for example amendments suggesting that if parliament is, it has to be within two days or something like that and if that fails they might have to turn to the courts. >> let's get to boris johnson over the last week or so he made his first official trip abroad visiting berlin and paris and of course the g-7.

what do you make of the fact that he's putting so much emphasis on berlin and paris when ultimately the challenge is with the backstop which is ireland, the republic of ireland and northern ireland and berlin and paris are expressing solidarity because they want to support ireland. so should boris johnson have focused his efforts on dublin? >> he should have. that's not to say that going to berlin and paris is wrong. it's quite a productive trip by all accounts the mood music around the chance of a deal improved slightly but that's right it's not only up to france and germany whether there will be a deal between the u.k. and the eu, and the biggest obstacle remains ireland but it's also worth pointing out that the rational for the backstop is twofold. one rational around ireland and the good friday agreement and the prevention of a hard border but the other rational is the protection of the single market and that's where france and germany have a lot of concern so

in that sense it was right that boris johnson decided he was going to discuss it as well. >> you seem to have taken a relatively optimistic reaction or reflection on boris johnson's trip abroad. how much of this is because of the fact that he chose to focus on one single issue? he essentially said there's a lot of things within the withdrawal agreement that i don't like and i'd like to change but as long as you're willing today just on the backstop i'll accept the rest. was that the right approach? did that send the message to european leaders that he is actually trying to crack the deal rather than just put up the front for his domestic supporters back home >> absolutely. by narrowing the scope, rather than extending it. if you give yourself only one problem to fix that makes solving it easier. that's not to say there will definitely be a deal they're still very far apart on

the backstop and the backstop has been the predominant issue with the deal ever since the deal was signed. but it does mean he is giving himself a little bit more space to come to some kind of agreement if there is one to be had. >> if thereis one to be had, that's the key right now the ball is really in his court when it comes to the backstop if he is going to get a deal with brussels he has accepted that task. what are the chances he can actually come up with a solution it feels as though the comments are pretty down beat when it comes to the likelihood of that. >> i think the chances are still relatively low and it's all about whether any proposals that the government comes up with are things ireland and the eu think work i think that's basically what it is and if they don't -- the idea of alternative arrangements to the backstop is kind of already implicit in the deal the backstop is just there in case the alternative arrangements don't work. so the key is does it work or

does it meet the objectives that the eu see as important in the backstop. >> we have to leave it there thank you. a very timely conversation given the developments over the last 24 hours or 24 minutes really. dominic walsh, policy analyst. japan officially ousted south korea from its whitelist of preferred trading partners it has gotten a strong backlash from seoul makiko joins us with more. >> yes the removal comes shortly after seoul decided thursday to cancel an intelligence sharing agreement with tokyo and it expires in november and south korean news reports say the prime minister told his country's lawmakers on monday that the government would be willing to consider extending the pact if japan with draw the trade restrictions but the japanese minister of trade rejected that out right saying he could not understand how trade and military intelligence

issues could be linked in anyway the white list of nations called group a countries by japan exempts members from additional export procedures for all products 26 countries are on the list apart from south korea south korea has been demoetted o the first time since 2004 to a list of group b trading parts and this gives them the authority to screen shipments for nearly all products. tokyo first announced in july it would restrict exports of three semi-conductor production materials to south korea requiring them to undergo a separate screening process for each shipment. designating south korea as a group b trading partner means japanese firms will face a more complicated process to export items to south korea which could create a bottleneck due to the extra paperwork. that's all from the nikkei back to you. >> makiko, thank you for all of that detail. well, keeping in japan, toyota

and suzuki motors struck a capital alliance they'll pay for a 5% stake in the japanese rival meanwhile, they'll invest 48 billion yen worth of shares in the prius maker. they were discussing a tie up in 2016 and earlier this year they announced a partnership to make electric vehicles. in the retail space, h&m are trading higher after they upgraded it to out perform they expect the company's improved performance will lead to gains in market share and support margins. more than 130 companies have reportedly applied for a license to sell to huawei but not one has been granted that's according to reuters sources. a spokesman told the news agency the process to review the request is currently on going. it comes nearly two months after president donald trump said some sales to the chinese tech giant would be permitted meanwhile, a business group issued a wake up call on china's

new social credit system which will rank citizens and businesses according to their economic and social reputation let that sink in there, what that would mean. the european union chamber of commerce in china says foreign companies are unprepared failure to comply with the scheme could lead to sanctions or even blacklisting the president of the group said the system could, quote, spell life or death for individual companies. it's set for 2020. and in other news, brazil has said it is open to foreign aid to help fight fires in the amazon in an apparent u-turn following a spat between it's president and it's french counter part the government would accept financial support as long as it could decide how it was used he earlier said he would only september it if macron apologized for, quote, insults against him. just a reminder that you can

follow us on twitter at street signs on cnbc if you want to weigh in on what's going on in rome on the grown. if you want to weigh in on the tomato festival. anything we have been discussing on street signs, you can also tweet me directly. coming up on the show, deutsche bank is in possession of tax returns relating to donald trump and his family details when we return do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

my bladder leak underwear.orried someone might see so, i switched. to always discreet boutique. its shape-hugging threads smooth out the back. so it fits better than depend. and no one notices. always discreet.

the british football club has been expelled from the english football league amid financial difficulties however those stalks failed with the efl saying it had withdrawn the membership we nor mouse regret in corporate news, phillip morris and altria are in talks to reunite they're in discussions for a merger more than a decade after a rise in e-cigarettes it would create a $200 billion

tobacco giant. 59% of the combined company with altria shareholders earning the remainder. and altria down nearly 4%. of course a lot of uncertainty as to the direction of travel for these tobacco giants and investors are cautious about the reunification. >> peloton is set to go public they make video streaming exercise bikes and said it aims to raise $500 million and didn't specify the size of the ipo. it was most recently valued but revealed in it's filing that it suffered significant losses over the last two years and may not turn a profit any time soon. familiar story of course over the last year or so when it comes to tech ipos

deutsche bank revealed it has tax returns filed by donald trump, his family or his business two u.s. committees to provide the information. the trump family is seeking to block the release by the bank which is the main lender for trump's real estate business the story we're discussing at length on squawk box yesterday, this is around the opioid epidemic in the united states. we were discussing johnson & johnson news this time we have news on purdue pharma they're weighing a pay out of between 10 and $12 billion to settle lawsuits according to nbc news accused of fuelling the opioid epidemic by marketing prescription drugs the settlement comes after johnson & johnson was ordered to pay a fine after it's own opioid

trial. kristen has the story. >> tonight, purdue pharma is ready to make a deal offering between 10 and $12 billion to settle more than 2,000 lawsuits linked to the opioid crisis. >> it's very significant never before have we ever seen a member of a private industry offer so much money to try to deal with a public health crisis of this magnitude. >> people familiar with the deal telling nbc news purdue would file for chapter 11 bankruptcy and restructure the company into a for profit trust run independently. profits would go to the cities, counts and states that have accused purdue of pushing the powerful painkillers despite knowing the risks. the video of the deposition published today by pro publica. >> if they sold more oxycontin they made more money.

>> yes same as almost every other company in the industry. >> the family ranked by forbes as the 19th richest in america didn't return our request for comment. purdue tells nbc while it is prepared to defend itself it sees little good coming from years of wasteful litigation the people and communities affected by the opioid crisis need help now. according to the cdc, opioids claimed 400,000 lives. and her son survived an addiction to oxycontin and said purdue isn't doing enough. >> 10 to $12 billion now, what is one life worth? >> that was nbc's kristen dalgren reporting on a huge issue for the united states. well, in other news, i want to highlight for you iran's former minister zarif says tehran doesn't want to raise tensions but added every country should

enjoy it's rights under international law. the m comencomments come after iranian president said he would not meet with president trump until sanctions are lifted what's going on between the u.s. and iran in the wake of the g-7 and the surprise visit by certainly a surprise to many of the foreign minister there at this point, how do you see this situation under folding do you see a meeting taking place any time soon between washington andtehran tensions have been building. they have been very high of course the issue of u.s.

energy sairngnctions have been of the key sources of tensions and as you said, turning up at the g-7 and probably socaught se participants by surprise the problem at the moment is the distance that needs to be bridged between the two sides is huge iran made it clear that they want sanctions to be lifted before any official talks can take place and the chances of that happening any time soon are pretty slim. it's extremely complex there's several layers to it it's been there for many decades and so they aren't really going anywhere any time soon having said that, there's still the potential for some limited easing of tensions perhaps, you know, something falling short of official talks and maybe something produced through back channels as i mention, the real pressure points, the real pain point for iran is difficulty

and it's some kind of understanding over the last few months could be made to ease and then some impacts that we have seen in the persian gulf. >> how closely do you think iran is watching north korea and kim jong un didn't have to give up very much. do you think that's weighing into their decision making at this point >> it's a really interesting comparison because if you look back in the nuclear agreement. it was concluded it's more of a lengthy process a lot of conditions to be met on both sides and then you have that nimble, flexible risky approach taken to north korea.

so probably do see an opportunity for some kind of unofficial understanding to be struck in the short-term at least on the issue of oil but at the same time they have been, you know, quite effected by the experience of the jcpoa and that hasn't panned out the way that it was intended. they built up expectations and the economy would open up and it would be a vehicle for change. >> i'm going to have to thank you and leave it there thank you so much for weighing in head of middle east and north africa. >> a look at sterling there which is extending losses down 0.8% that's it for street signs stay with cnbc

my digestive system used to make me feel sluggish. but those days are over. now i take metamucil every day. it naturally traps and removes the waste that weighs me down. so i feel... lighter. try metamucil and begin to feel what lighter feels like.. introducing new metamucil premium blend, sweetened with stevia and made with all-natural flavors and colors. it's a delicious way to get your daily dose of fiber. try it today.

they have businesses to grow customers to care for lives to get home to they use stamps.com print discounted postage for any letter any package any time right from your computer all the amazing services of the post office only cheaper get our special tv offer a 4-week trial plus postage and a digital scale go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again! mno kidding.rd. but moving your internet and tv? that's easy. easy?! easy? easy. because now xfinity lets you transfer your service online in just about a minute with a few simple steps. really? really. that was easy. yup. plus, with two-hour appointment windows,

it's all on your schedule. awesome. now all you have to do is move...that thing. [ sigh ] introducing an easier way to move with xfinity. it's just another way we're working to make your life simple, easy, awesome. go to xfinity.com/moving to get started.

it's now 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquaters here's your top 5 at 5 the bond market flashing the most clearing recession signal in more than a decade or is it is now the time to worry or is something else at play digging the dividend the 30 year bond yield doing something not done since the depths of the financial crisis it could mean good news for stocks we'll tell you what that is. the risk off rally the one investment outperformed nearly everything else and it may be the oldest investment class in the world hot home fitness maker