as these companies expand, we're going to see this sort of secondary industry blow up as well >> yes we just had no idea, at least i didn't, that it was so sophisticated and that my home address might only cost $2 to unveil joseph, thanks very much for your reporting that does it for the change. i'll go join melissa for "power lunch" which begins now. >> i'm melissa lee the art of the trade deal. china hoping for a calm e r resolution and that's fuelling the rally for today. is the turmoil finally coming to an end president trump pounding the table on the federal reserve to cut rates in september, but we will explain while powell was stuck between a rock and hard place. and e sports euphoria. the growing market isn't just a fd and investable. she'll tell us how she is getting in the game. "power lunch" starts right now

and take a look at where we stand in the markets now we are at session highs. dow and s&p, nasdaq, all rallying the dow is up by 1.4%. so is the s&p 500 and nasdaq is up by 1.7% major averages are on track for their best week since the beginning of june. check out some retail that i means hitting record highs home depot and target >> let's get to bob pisani for more on what's driving stocks higher >> look what's going on here this week, the sectors most beaten up in august, they've all rallied. cyclical semiconductor, retail, industrial they've all rally ied this week. the more defensive groups, the ones that have been stronger all throughout the month of august, the consumer staples and the ewe tillties and gold stock ises, they're all underperform iing ts week so what is this we're seeing here is this an oversold rally in

these sicyclicals? month end rebalancing? more optimism on trade talks maybe all of them. the problem is there's not a lot of confidence in the rally because of the uncertainty first and most important ly, th around the direction of trade and tariffs. secondly, the stability around europe and asia and finally on what the right central bank policy response should be for weaker growth overall. not clear just cutting rates is a panacea. right now, everybody agrees, this is an easy trade for the active managers. short the cyclicals. go long defensive stocks and occasionally, you get snap backs like we're seeing this week, but without the uncertainty of a trade deal, guys, all these rallies kind of have a tentative feel, at least to the traders down here. >> thank you part of this rally driven by comments from president trump that trade talks with china are continues. kayla explains what that means >> those comments came in a fok

radio interview this morning president trump was asked about china, the stock market and how long this new status quo can last he says i have talkeded schedule there's a talk today at a different level and they've been talking. let's see what the end product is that is what you have to judge it by. now it's clear that talks at the deputy and ministerial levels have been clear, but no call on whether trump and xi has taken place. chinese officials said overnight both sides have maintained effective communication and beijing hopes washington can cancel those tariffs on tap for this weekend "the washington post" reports the white house is considering a tax cut that would be equivalent to how much the u.s. is bringing in in tariff proceeds. it was an idea first floated on cnbc by florida senator rick scott. >> clearly we're going to have short-term pain. anything we raise in tariffs we ought to give back to the american public in tax reductions so it doesn't impact

american families. we've got to help american farmers open up more markets for the around the world >> now an aide from senator scott's office says that he is currently focused on hurricane efforts but there could be a policy proposal forthcoming, but the idea could get complicated considering the tariffs are mostly paid by u.s. importers and so far, president trump has chos chosen to send proceeds to hard hit farmers. zpl when it comes to the trade turmoil, is there light at the end of the tunnel? joining us now is michael clark and peter anderson welcome to you both. peter, you know it's calm for now, but we've got the tariffs september 1st. do you invest with the people like bob mentioned who are playing it defensive r or do you think those areas are overcrowded and you're leaning against that >> well one of the things i try

to do and especially when things go off the rails, which they have occasionally over the past month, is you have to just look at facts on the ground what do we know and what is not contestable. so we know that china's you know sentiment since the newspapers are state owned. we're never going to get a real clear image of what the chinese are thinking that's number one. number two, to really calm my fear, i think about the trade imbalance. china sells us 500 billion worth of goods we sell them 130 billion back. so no way is china in the long game they're just not going to give this up and i think there will be a resolution, but it's hard to stick to that big theme when you're having these tweets coming every day and things do seem to go off the rails more frequently than we would like. so the bottom line with this is if you have a year horizon of investing, i would not be in equities i would be in cash, but if you

have longer than a year, i would say buy the equities that you like stick to your plan and you know things will get resolved eventually >> sounds like you're fairly cautious given where we are in this bull market cycle given of the signals we're seeing around the world. >> i think that's right. probably no surprise, just echoing some of the comments from earlier given how far into the cycle we are and the volatility and uncertainty, we are cautious you know like everybody, we're focused on the trade wars. and we hope that what we hear today is actually a real step in the right direction but i think we've seen this a lot so i think it's way too early to get exciteded. >> you have some interesting ways to play this. alternatives like black stone so the pipeline names, kendra morgan, end bridge talk about those areas of the market >> those are a couple of areas, not specific to just what's going on with the trade wars, areas we're finding attractive there's a couple of things that's interesting you don't normally think about

alternative asset managers so similarities would be in a world where it's really hard to find income, these stocks offer nice up front yields and they have dividend growth because both are in secular growth industries. the alternative asset managers are raising money hand over fist the fees are attractive and this low rate environment just reenforces that attribute. on the pipeline side, it's different, but the secular growth story there is shale. so we know that the growth in u.s. shale is having a negative effect on oil and gas prices, but volumes are growing tremendously they fix their balance sheets. with five, six, 7% yields and growth, they're very attractive and both are converting from k1s to corporations. it's really increasing the size of the investor base there are a lot of people that couldn't invest in them before and now they can >> peter you like computer security in areas of the markets that have higher multiples

in the software sector, from auto tes k as well as box, that they are impacted by the tariffs, that they are impacted by the trade war because of u n uncertainty. the drops we've seen have been greater. is that a concern of yours >> not at all. here's what i'm doing. when things get very crazy the way they have been, it's very hard to look at specific you know trade details every day and instead what i do is i look for themes so if you just step back and say to yourself in years from now, will computer security be around i think the resounding answer is yes. it is a, a war on cyber that is an arms race it will never go away and if you call any chief risk officer in any large company and you would ask them you certify today that you spent all the funding you

need to be immune from any attacks, they will always say no, we need more funding that's the first thing t. then in terms of data storage, same situation. right. there's nothing that's going to replace that and as you know, with every day that passes, we just get more and more demand for data storage. and so that will go on, too. and until we have something that's really breaking, say something like quantum computing, which is far, far away in the future, these companies still will be an anchor in your port fofolio. especially when you have times like this when sometimes you don't have a compass but you know further on that these themes will be b robust. >> and you've got peloton. that ipo peter, i know you're hot on >> i think you're being sarcastic. i'm hoping >> i think you said only people in prison exercise regularly what >> let me say a couple of words about peloton. just a couple of words you know i think it will go the

way of go pro and other companies that have had fads you know one of the things you can look at all the financials, right? but let's ustyukhinae a little f common sense most consumers don't like to exercise in isolation in their home takes a tremendous amount of self-discipline and most of these bikes and other treadmills et cetera, usually end up as a clothes hanger frankly after a certain period of time so the fundamentals of peloton in term of what betting on i think are very weak and i did mention prisons because i was thinking in terms of where would this sell best places where you would be confined not public gyms -- >> maybe in apartment complexes. i don't know if we have to go quite that far i hear they're selling well there. >> now we know what peter doesn't do at home >> exactly >> thank you guys.

appreciate it. >> bye bye >> shares of philip morris falling in part of an investigation of juul's marketing practice frank holland has the story from the ceo of juul. >> social media influencers and whether minors were targeted is the focus of the probe the ftc would not comment. this report comes a day after ju, l announced a new system to prevent minors from buying the products >> the data i was looking at shows it's not only former sm e smokers you're converting. some are starting juul and have never been on nicotine bf. what's your advice >> don't vape. don't use it unless you have a preexisting relationship with nicotine you're not our target consumer >> sharing falling more than 3% on the news.

they bought a 35% stake in december philip morris shares dropping on tuesday. the two companies announced they are in merger talks. juul says it cooperates with all investigations into the company adding it's never marketed to minors it released this statement our paid influencer policem er a small pilot that ended in 2018 we worked with ten adults and were smokers or former smokers over the age of 30 they control about 30% of the u.s. vaping market and has been blamed for a rise in teen nicotine use >> thank you coming up, apple shares higher on trade optimism, but new numbers showing the company's increased reliance china. plus, what can we expect from the just announced apple event disney plus in just a couple of months and disney says interest is surpassing expectations how good will it be for disney and how fobad r netflix?

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time now for a power run down three big topics e sports, disney plus and apple. joining us now is laura martin great to have you with us. we want to start off with your new note on e sports that argues that videos will ballize viewers from traditional media.

how fast will that happen do you think? >> probably nest three to five years. we're getting one out of three kids under the age of 25 is spending an hour a day playing video games and for every hour you play, you watch another hour to get better. globally, we had a 16-year-old win the fortnight champion we're giving scholarships to go to college by playing video games and they get to keep their winnings so why go work your ass off as a b football player to get your college tuition played when you can do e sports and keep the winnings. it's more fun and kids love it we have 450 million viewers of e sports right now and inkre increasingly, we're going to see this higher profile in the u.s. as price pools get bigger. >> when we say traditional immediamedi loses out, we're talking about

netflix. i know reed hastings mentioned that in jest sort of i believe it was the first quarter or fourth quarter where he said fortnite wascompetitor how u badly be the streaming services feel it >> i think it's a big problem. he yaused eed to say his bigges competitor was sleep they're playing three hours a day. i think they're playing more than they're sleeping. by the way, when you get legalized sports betting on e sports, i think that elongates engagement more because if you bet a dollar on a certain winner out of 100 fortnite players, you're going to stay until the end of the game to see if you won your $3 for the dollar you bet. i think more and more, these interactive games are going to take share from all streaming services >> speaking of streaming, laura,

the hype for disney plus seems to be real a new report saying the it's outpacing disney's initial projections. is that a surprise to quou >> it's not. disney's core confidence is marketing excellence and i think that kid hook, like children are churn proof, that's a great description of the disney superpower so i expect people to for $7 a month take disney and their kids are not going to let them churn. disney projected originally they'd be at 20 to 30 million subscribers in america in five years. i think that could be higher >> crazy >> then we have apple sending out invitations for the september 10 event where the new iphones are expected to be announced. so the iphone pro is coming. what else? >> they're saying they're going to introduce three new iphones i think the important point to make, a continroversial point of

view, is on ramps into the ecosystem. you want cheaper phones and higher end phones that get people to come to the ecosystem so that you can sell them. the new arcade service, which is video games. the new over the top service, which is video more services. like drop and cloud and because what are data and research shows is once somebody has three services, they churn they'll stay in that apple ecosystem sort of indefinitely so moon ramps into the apple ecosystem and more products once you get there. once you have three product, you're not going to churn out of the apple ecosystem. >> do you need three foephones r that sfwl no, you need products >> they've done this upscale, down scale thing before. >> i don't know if that's true what apple has a monopoly on today is the rich 15% of

citizens in the world and it's been high-end. $1,000 $800 so to the extent they're l lowering their price point which increases on ramps into the ecosystem, that's a positive >> thank you laura martin >> my pleasure >> less than three weeks away from the next fed meeting and pressure is mounting on the fed. we're going to talk to a former fed governor next about why president trump might have put jerome powelinl a lose lose situation when "power lunch" comes back automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. and fidelity's rate is higher than e-trade's, td ameritrade's, even 10 times more than schwab's. plus only fidelity has zero account fees and zero minimums for retail brokerage and retirement accounts. just another reminder of the value you'll only find at fidelity. open an account today.

welcome back itolli. check out the beauty stocks. estee lauder in the green. as ulta greer gears up to repor earn earn, could this be the start of makeover for the group? your trading nation team today bill, get us started give us a snapshot of how you think ulta and estee are holding up here. kind of different segments, but at one time or another have been leading consumer stocks. >> both are trending strong and

there's tho reason to think it's going to stop. ulta broke out above highs in march and that was about 315, 320. you have to 200 day moving average. however a weekly close below 315 is going to encourage more selling. that's where the 50-day moving average is as for estee lauder, you're seeing this thing tread strongly broke out about two weeks ago above a trend line we're coming back, testing about 195 to 197 it's well above the 200 day moving avrnls. is right now, it would say the trend is going to continue as long as it stays above 195, 197. >> obviously the backdrop is as a sector, cosmetics are doing well you have the selfie economy in their favor. but estee is caught up in this big trade and of course ulta is a physical retailer, so wher does that take you >> yeah, you're right.

in fact, the fund mamentals for ulta are quite good except they sit in the retail sector, but if you look at the way they've pivoted from just brick and mortar to more of an xuonline offering, their latest report would suggest that's going to continue to drive their growth i think within the retail sector, they look fantastic because beauty is very much a recession proof commodity and so you know you welcolook at long- for ulta, they're stacking up u well the challenge is going to be its valu valuations it's trading really hot. 24 times valuations for pes versus forward of only like nine times. i think the challenge is is going to be how that works itself out and i think ths that's one of the reasons it's been struggling. so we have to see how this valuati valuation element shakes out >> it's been a physical exception for that high valuation. thank you very much. for more trading nation, head to

our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation. back to you. >> thank you ahead on "power lunch", the great rate debate. president trump renewing his attacks on chairman powell and the federal reserve. plus, today's power house. we'll take you on a tour of the most expensive home for sale in the u.s. and a poweful hurricaning towards florida. what it means for those travels over the big holiday weekend all of this when "power lunch" returns.

good thursday. here's your cnbc news update the stromboli volcano erupted thursday speeing lava on to the

tiny island. no immediate reports of injuries the explosion in less than two months or eruption as they're known. france's longest zip line sends riders solo or in pairs on a 1.6 mile journey at speeds as fast as 80 miles an hour it offers similar views if you can stomach it according to aaa, the sh national average for gasoline prices is more than $2.58 a gallon 25 cents cheaper than last year. highest prices in the west, upper midwest and northeast b and this morning in a galaxy not so far away, a new land opened to the masses. fans filing into disney's star wars galaxy's edge at the hollywood studios park in orlando. i feel like we just went around the world there, melissa >> what a tour, thank you. travel agent contessa brewer. a check of the markets here. the bulls are off to the races

here we are close to session highs now with the dow up by 363 po36s s&p 500. 29 .29 just a point off of that up 40 points nasdaq is higher by 127 points or 1.6% all 11 sectors in the green. tech industrials are loading the way and one sector flying higher airlines american up nearly 5% followed by united, southwest and alaska. we'll have more on the airlines later this hour. the oil market is closing for the hour >> good afternoon. oil prices moving higher along with stocks holding above $60 a barrel part of the move in oil is due to the standoff with iran which continues to heat up, plus the drop in u.s. crude inventories as summer winds down looking at wti crude at $56, but the international gauge at

61.09. this comes as gold and silver have been selling off. silver staging a major reversal and gold down by 1.2% holding at 1,530. president trump continuing his fight with the fed tweeting the economy is doing great if the fed would do what they should, we are a rocket upward steve liesman has more >> the fed faces two dlilemmas. how to respond to the barrage and personnel. i'm respondi inin intweets, the decide d not to respond stickin to explaining whdayton mandate . the fed will address the tariffs when they show up in weaker economic data, but has rejected the president's urge iing to cut interest rates to weaken the dollar and help exporters. former new york fed presiden said the fed should go further

hold iing the line on rates so t to enable the president's trade war. but a sharp rebuke from the fed itself when he suggested he considered the prospects of the fed's re-election. the fed said quote, the federal reserve policy decisions are guided solely by its mandate to remain price stability and maximum employment put u up kconsiderations the fed is right to take the role as it comes and oskts the economy not to enable it by cutting rates preemptively r or to play that game of cut rate, weak b weaken the currency and rates to the bottom as people talk b aboabout. >> a former secretary responded today in an exclusive cnbc interview. >> for a trusted former official of the fed whose thinking is inevitably

going to be tied to the fed. to recommend that they raise interest rates so as to subvert the economy and influence a presidential election is grossly irresponsible and is an abuse of the privilege of being a former fed official >> let's bring in former federal reserve governor to the conversation randy, we're glad to get your take on this i understand all the outrage when it comes to what bill dudley said, but isn't what he said very practical in many ways if the fed wants to get out of the box of being the backstop for political, for policy made by the administration, doesn't it have to look long er term an say we're going to stick by what we want to do regardless of what the outcome is >> so i think central banks have

a responsibility to respond to the policies that are given by fiscal authorities, trade authorities or things that happen dploeglobally they might prefer things to be otherwise, but i think their mandate is to respond and the appropriate thing to do is take them as given. they might want them to be different, b but that's not the way the world is think about mark carney in the u.k. he's not someone who is supportive of brexit but i think he did the right thing in easing monetary policy in the u.k. to mitigate the impact of brexit on the u.k. economy. i think that was the right thing to do regardless >> you know what's so difficult about the fed's position though in this particular case, randy, is that the president can threaten steepening tariffs in a tweet you know set a date, the fed meeting happens, they want to cut rates based on that when the president can all of a sudden tweet out another policy saying we're not going to do it.

a very sort of, it happens so quickly. what do you expect the fed to do when they're cutting rates you can't respond that quickly when it comes to monetary policy, can you? should you >> no, no and that was not what i was suggesting i'm talking about fiscal policy. the standard thing the fed has to deal with it has to take that into account. there are lots of assertions made about candidates want to cut rates or tax rates or increase rates spend more spend. >> lewis:. they have they have to anticip like toy to happen and make policy around that that's what the fed has always done and should do it shouldn't be trying to influence the outcome of whether there's a tax cut or increase. but it should take into account of what's likely to happen >> randy, it's a weird situation. stipulate that what bill did, i've known him for over two decades i think now from a goldman sachs economist to running the desk at the new york

fed. that was wrong i just don't understand where that came from the it's clearly not appropriate. the other piece about enabling the tariff war and whether or not the federal reserve should hold rates at a certain place because if you look at the tale of the tape, randy, it's spooky. they cut rates and the next day, the president announced tariffs on china and then powell spoke and sort of suggested we're going to cut rates more then within 20 minutes, the president raised rates on china it appears as if the fed is enable iing the president wheres maybe if it held the line, the president wouldn't feel so free to hike tariffs and frankly, engage in what is a very difficult economic trade war here >> so first if you look at the cbo estimate so far what they estimate is between 2018 and 20, the impact of tariffs on the u.s. economy will be .3% level

change so hardly an impact on growth. so i don't think it's at least according to the cbo, the first order impact on growth there could be impacts on uncertainty that affect investment and such, but i really don't think that the fed is thinking a it in this way i don't think, i can't say what the president and the white house are thinking about but if they are concerned about a downturn and concerned about the uncertainty of the policy that may change from day the day, that's just like dealing with fiscal uncertainty, they should be take iing that into account. i don't see it as enabling or not. >> the only thing i pushback, when you have you have 2% growth, it's a meaningful number >> over two-year horizon that's hardly anything on growth >> right on the growth rate, but .3 of 20 trillion is real money, isn't it >> that was a maximum impact

>> right >> that is a real impact >> i'm just saying also the hus history. we've underestimate d the psychological effects. if you look at ceo confidence numbers and also by the way, what's happening in germany is maybe what's happening in china and united states. the linkages here, i understand and i appreciate what you're saying about the level of growth and the direct impact, but what i think we've learned is from a corporate standpoint and from a global trade standpoint, the impacts are probably quite a bit lar larger >> well, again, if you lock at the u.s., we just had 2% print in the most recent quarter 2% in the previous quarter we've had more than 2% growth for every quarter since where the exception of last year for the last few years so it's really hard to see much of a major impact on u.s. growth the .3 is a level effect so over

a two-year horizon it's the level would be different by maximum .3 which is not that much in terms of growth. i do agree that one of the concerns that i have and i think that many people have is that investment has been low. i think policy uncertainty both domestic and international has been very much weighing on ceos and weighing on firms. but the consumers's clearly powering through what got us the 2% growth. >> all right we're going to leave it there. thank you so much, randy and steve. to the bond market now where rick santelli is tracking the action after the awful seven year auction earlier rick >> yes, we often don't show a seven year but as you can see at 1:00 earn, it spiked up a bit as all maturities did we saw tens to twos flirting with zero. if you blinked, you misseded it. but the real issue is we have a rebalancing going on there's an impetus to get in front of what's going on or

we're going to selling in treasuries and buy in stocks and getting in front of it is another game in and of itself. look at intraday of the dollar the high is 98.55. the current high back to may of 2017's 98.50 now even though we backed away from that level as you see on this may 2017 chart, it's a big day. the euro's at fresh 27.5 month lows and it just underscores that when you have a good econo economy, 2% might not look great, but it is, it's doing well and showing up in the strength of the dollar kelly, back to you >> thank you we've got a news alert on story we've been following with amazon on monday's "power lunch." "wall street journal" laid out his investigation into third party sellers and now congress is weighing in let's go to diedra with the details. >> we've also got alet on

huawei, which i wanted to mention first citing sources u.s. prosecutors are looking into new allegations of technology theft by huawei smart phone camera technology and includes a subpoena from u.s. prosecutors for documents it suggests the government is investigating aspect of huawei's business practices doesn't necessarily mean new charges are being sought, but it could represent another complication in u.s. china trade talks where huawei has been an important piece of negotiations. we reached out to the economy that responded they don't comment on pending litigation still digging into those headlines, so let me get back to you on those >> thank you very much coming up, details of the new all you can eat subscription services for hotels. plus, our cameras are inside the most expensive house for sale in america. we'll show you what $195 million

buys coming up on "power lunch." through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from managing inventory... to detecting and preventing threats... to scaling up your production.

welcome back time for power house the price tag is $195 million. robert frank has more. >> that's right. it's called the chartwell estate and it's the fomer residence of the late billionaire mogul who co-owned and ran the univision television network

it's beyond extravagant and includes hidden passwaageways buried underneath the house. this is first time t cameras have been allowed inside t going to blow you away ♪ back in 1986, the former chairman purchased the bellaire mansion and after a five-year gut renovation, transformed the interior into an authentic replica of an 18th century french chateau he filled the home with rare european antiques and made some significant modern day additions. >> the grand ballroom was designed for entertaining. one of the special features of this property is that at a flick of a switch, it becomes a theatre. >> one level below is the estate's massive wine cellar >> it's completely climate controlled and can hold 12,000

bottles of wine. you heard me right 12,000 bottles >> he loved to entertain so he built this 40-car motor court and above it, he built a beautiful rose garden. >> buried underneath the chateau are two tunnels. original to the home's 1935 construction and this particular tunnel takes you to the spectacular pool and pool house >> the billionaire added a giant's head to the mouth of one of the tunnels and while redwood trees are only found in northern california, that didn't stop the tv titan from transplanting does b b bs of majestic se coias to create a private redwood grove in iowa open backyard. >> notonly is there nothing like this in los angeles, i don't think there's anything like this in the country. >> now generally, the golden triangle, that market is very

weak right now sales down about 20% in the second quarter and the broad er l.a. luxury real estate markets saw prices drop 12%, but we had the candy spelling mansion there was a very famous home wife and widow of aaron spelling that sold for $120 million so 195 is not crazy, but it's probably if it does sell, going to be, yeah, it needs a little bit of upu dates as they say >> we want to also ask you ab t latest subscription service for luxury hotels. >> this is brand-new never been tried before. endless travel for $2500 a month. the denver based company has launched a product that allows users to book hotels and luxury homes for a subscription homes for $2500 a month. you have your choice of hundreds of hotels around the month including the mandarin in

manhattan, pepe nins la in paris. the only catch is you have to wait one week after checking out from one hotel to book the next one, but for 5,000 a month, you can book two reservations at a time meaning you could stay non-stop in luxury hotels for a month. for an extra $500, you can add a person on a pass so friends and family can also book how do they make money they have special technology that allows them to get rooms at top hotels for low costs, so no matter how much a member uses their pass during a month, they say they would still be profitable >> they've mechanism to communicate with these hotels, purchase inventory at rates that are substantially below what you would be able to get on your own. >> and they have signed up about 500 pass holders so far. they launched it last month. so far done fairly well. interesting to see over the long term whether it works.

>> $5,000 a month hold 2 >> yep. >> cheaper than rent in some cities. >> absolutely. >> there you go. >> forget where i'm staying at the mandarin. >> go hotel hopping. >> thank you. >> thank you. booking a trip is always an anxious moment but there's an app for that we'll talk about how mopper predicts future prices and what it says about the fall travel season and hurricane dorian. you should be mad at airports. excuse me, where is gate 87? you should be mad at non-seasoned travelers. and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

hurricane dorian is gaining strength as it heads to florida. it is now predicted to become a category 4 storm and threatening to disrupt one of the busiest travel weekends of the year. flight cancelations have begun the long weekend is marking the end of the summer travel season and new data of hopper to track millions of flights shows prices dropping in september and staying low until the holiday season let's bring in haley berg, an economist there. first of all, because dorian is on our minds, what affects are you seeing there >> as you have said we're already seeing cancelations begin and travelers starting to look for options if they can't get to their more tropical or

florida destinations for the long weekend. >> when you help with that, look, i guess some people go to their airline and maybe change it directly and a lot of times they wave fees for that. can you figure out a cheap way to do? >> we recommend if you have a flight booked to go to the airline website or even reach out to their customer service to understand what your options are. in a case like a hurricane or natural disaster, typically airlines start either waving change fees or allowing refunds and rerouting for their customers. their goal is to maintain those customers and shift demand away from the weekend of the natural disaster, hurricane to another date. >> win-win good for the travelers and the airlines coming to pricing as you said, once we get into september it starts to drop a good time to travel. >> exactly september, october and the beginning of november are actually some of the best times to travel. we're coming down from those

peak summer prices and haven't quite hit the peak holiday prices so airlines have to lower prices to fill up planes and use their capacity through the fall shoulder season. >> is there a capacity issue at all because of the grounding of the 737 max? >> in the fall season, that period september to november we are not expecting a huge capacity issue in part because capacity is still growing in 2019 compared to last year where we are likely to see potential supply problems is the busy holiday season and that's because we have more people traveling from big cities, big airport hubs to more regional local airports as they head home for the holidays those routes are more difficult to cover when you have the high demand on major routes and local routes which is kind of unique to the holiday season. >> how does it work that you guys are able to figure out constantly when the best time is to book these flights? >> so at hopper we use an

incredible amount of data going back more than five years to be constantly tracking historical and current prices for every origin, destination, departure return pair that people are searching for. so we use that historical demand in price data to forecast what we think the best price deal will be for users send a notification. >> what if you're wrong? >> so about 95% of the time we are right or we at least do no harm so our goal is always to be improving our forecast accuracy and ensuring that travelers are at least doing no harm when they use us. >> appreciate it thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. check please is next (bang) good luck with that one. yes! that's why i wear skechers slip-ons. they're effortless. just slip them right on and off. skechers slip-ons, with air-cooled memory foam.

a nice rally on the hands. seems to be more convincing than yesterday where we saw the leadership of financials and retail we see a broad based rally with technology joining in on the action today, as well. >> we have hawkish rhetoric out of the ecb >> we'll see thanks for watching. >> "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ good afternoon welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost at the cat post up 2.7%. trade related stocks doing well today amid resolution hopes with china. we're 59 minutes left of trade. >> i'm sara eisen.

welcome, everyone. look at what's driving the action president trump said trade talks are set to resume at a different level and china saying it's in favor of a calm approach and hinting it won't retaliate treasury yields taking a pause from the recent slide. joining us for the h