>> yes, the market keeps getting what it thinks it needs and wants. you're right, for now it is the case the question is, will it be enough it seems like a bit of a delicate balance as you suggested. i think right now it is not too bad. >> we are out of time. thank you very much for watching that does it for "closing bell." >> have a good weekend "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money" i'm million. your traders on the desk are tim seymour, bryn kelly, dan nathan and guy adami. is there trouble brewing in ipo land why this year's most highly anticipated debut may pull the plug on going public beyond meat getting grilled. we'll hear from the man who made the call later, the big battle between netflix and disney what netflix needs to do to come out on top of the streaming wars the s&p 500 now is just over

1.5% away from a new all-time high look at some of this week's standouts, semis surging more than 4% for their best week in about two months retail rocking, gaining 3% on the week, and one stock in the front lines of the trade war, caterpillar, pulling back for a gain of just over 3% trade optimism seems to be back but is it enough to sustain the rally? guy. >> you find yourself sometimes like the salmon swimming up streams. >> there's an "l" in there. >> thank you i feel as if i am one now. i am swilling upstream and it feels futile, but i will stick to my gun. i still think the headwinds are out there, and i think the market is due for a significant sell-off i know there is trade optimism i get it i know this time the tweet came from chinese, not president trump's twitter account. with that said, i think it is delaying the inevitable. the inevitable is they get to

the table and walk away with no deal, and that's somewhat negative for the market going forward. >> listen, we had a bit of a rally over the last days, 1.5% from all-time highs, but we haven't gone anywhere for 18 months we get close to the president, there's a market sell off, and the president says we're getting close. i think you have to have the mental model that the trade war will go on at least until the 2020 election and it will continue to grind on the economy. i don't know if the stock market goes down a lot more, but i know we probably go side waysuntil 2020 election. >> but even as trade war concerns persist, as time goes on, with jerome powell just saying today in switzerland he doesn't see a recession on the horizon, isn't it more positive than when he said it a month ago? >> i mean -- >> the effects are persisting hiv- >> a financial crisis, i don't

have any confidence they can predict a recession any better than anybody else. >> i was about to say that those left here -- i don't think we listen to the fed to talk about the economy. i think by definition of their manned date, the fed should be a lagging policy assessor. the more important thing this week was we had major reversals in a number of downward trends in terms of risk you had emfx starting to get very scary reverse, and probably most notably you stopped the downward plunge in bond yields which we all made to assume just because things are going to a lot lower it means the world is coming to an end, when a lot of it is related to the european union and getting pulled down by bund there's no disputing we had mixed data we had both sides of the manufacturing data, but then the ism services which is a big part of the economy, actually showed much surprise to the upside. the labor market, if you look at the household survey, there were

components that were very, very concern. we are not running out of gas any time soon. we have a fed that is accommodative and the bears have gone quiet for a couple of days. they have to. >> back to the market, it is important to talk about the changes and certain risk assets. the treasury yield traded 144 earlier this week, it is at 156. it feels like it is tentative bottom i think it is interesting. when you think about the s&p 500 it has been a flight to quality among equity investors, but look at the russell 2000, small cap it didn't have a great week. it massively underperformed large cap, which is interesting to me. the dollar, a lot of traders would have love to see a bigger pull-back with stocks coming back up. it is only about 1% off the highs of the week. i believe we can sit here and talk about recession versus market correction, i think the best thing to happen would be for the s&p 500 to get back above the prior highs we made in july and see how it acts up there. to your point, bk, every time we have been above a prior high over the last 18 months we had

sharp corrections. so the point is can we get up there and stay and establish a new range. more importantly, then we need the maga names, other than microsoft. we need them to confirm the new highs. they've not confirmed, amazon, google and apple have not confirmed one new high in the s&p since -- >> also, the higher the market goes the more likely the president comes out and says, we're not going to make a deal with china that has happened every time. >> the less likely he will come out and say it >> yes he has more negotiating power. >> he will stick with not having a deal. >> exactly or he will have a harder line in negotiating. let's say we do make a new high, let's see what happens up there. let's see what holds let's see if we start to make progress on the trade deal there's a lot of things that have to happen for this market to rip a lot higher. >> do we have a bit of a runway between now and whenever the trade talks are, which are scheduled sometime in the first

week of october? >> sure we do, and we do especially in a world where hong kong, at least for the short run, has ironed out a lot of tension. that's another big event of the week, let's be clear as china goes into the communist party anniversary, which there's no room for anything to get in the way of that, so we have a window it is very important that the market, which also though, dan, you're right, let's see what we do with the new trading range. but the old trading range was one we had to get through, and we had to back fill to get the s&p up above the 2925 level. as 25 sessions we have done it we have the iyt. i think transports, which are maybe more cyclical in this environment than semis, were maybe the best tell of the week. you can't get runaway bullish, but after all of the bears we had and the reversals, it gives you time. >> dan brought up the russell. it is interesting. this time last year the russell was making an all-time high, and it never got back to confirm the

recent high in the s&p didn't get anywhere close. now here it is at 149. i have said a number of times and i believe this, 145 is sort of your line in the sand in iwm. again, it does not strayed parts well i'm not looking for something to back up my dog, mccleary, but i will mention through the russell 145, in my opinion drags the s&p 500 down with it. >> can i ask a question? as the russell traded well as the s&p went to rofecord highs earlier in the year? >> no, it hasn't. >> then why do we care if the russell hasp performed well this year. >> it will be one of the first to show the slowing consumer or the cap ex freeze. i think it is important to remember as we talk about all of these things that the s&p 500 is up 19% for the year. as we talk about as tim mentioned, all of the bearishness. we were down 3.5% from an all-time high, still up 15%, 16%

on the year. you know, things are not bad, it is just really trying to figure out what is the risk/reward. i have been saying this, i feel like a broken record it is not a great environment to putting new capital work, especially when -- >> can you define that when you say one up, two down, what is that >> i'm thinking about the risk/reward relationship you think about every new high we had since january 2018, it has been incremental, a couple percent above the prior high and then we had the plushflushes. we had a 7% flush, a 20% flush from the highs you get my point >> i do, but i'm not trying to make people think one up, two back, that the s&p 500 is down where it was in the last couple of years they have continued to make new highs. they haven't been bombastic but

it is there. i have quoted these numbers since january 2018, we've been largely side ways, but semis, a number of things have gone higher. >> we're saying valuation is important, we're seeing multiple expansion. that's a figure of risk too in a way. so we're not having the fundamentals confirm the higher valuation. the new highs are not confirming everything because they're not done on big volume and then we see the flushes lower. all that tells me is that it is risk the risk is not to the upside but the down side. >> i would say about the small caps bringing back to that, they're heavy regional banks, right. they make the money off the heavy interest spread which when the yield curve flattens is not that good. if you are looking at a small cap as a leading indicator of what the yield curve might be, you want to see the banks rip higher because people think the yield curve will steepen again. >> we were talking about how it seems like the longest shortened

week ever. it feels like eight-day week. >> "eight days a week" is a beatle song. >> so we are done with the halls? >> done with the halls >> what should be the first thing you are looking for on monday morning >> monday morning. >> i guess the yuan is no longer in our crush hairs so i think rates would be important, the guys would be able to back me up on that. i think in a lot of ways you have to continue to watch the res you will i think the russell leads by six months the s&p go back and look last summer where it topped out and where the summer topped out. so i would -- >> you're not a believe in the russell as an indicator, what do you look at? >> i want to see a little bit beige, people potentially short covering, people taking off a little bit of that negative

expose so you want to see follow-through on big volume that's what i want to see, particularly if we are going to break out to a new high. i want to see it on big volume. >> all right we are just getting started here on "fast money". beyond meat getting smoked after one analyst said, sell this stock. you will hear from the man who made the call and later breaking down what you can expect from apple's product. we're live in new york city, much more "fast money" right after this

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♪ got that on camera welcome back to "fast money" a sign of the times in the ipo world. we were talk wing advisers and shareholders about skaping its upcoming ipo this comes after sources told cnbc that the company slashed its valuation in half due to weak demand. is we work on the way to scrapping its ipo? could that be the best option, dan? >> it is interesting the "wall street journal" is reporting this, saying that the ceo is meeting with the head of soft bank to see what they can do with this thing we have had 100, almost 200 billion of tech ipos come this

year everyone knew it was a controversial one, at least from the standpoint of business model because of how capital intensive it is, and then you have the huge ramp year over year i don't think there's a positive spin either way. if it comes and it is not a great deal, we are dealing with -- look at lyft, uber, they're making new lows every day. do we want another name like that, a $25 billion publicly traded company not making money a lot of people are skeptical? i don't think so by the same token, if they can get an infusion from soft bank, then it kind of shores up one problem the market has in my opinion. >> on top of all of those issues there are also the corporate governance issue, questions about the ceo, the board, how diverse it is. >> and i'm a huge fan of the network as all not only am i a participate from time to time but an avid viewer. on the squawk show in the mornings, in sam zell was on and threw a lot of cold water on we work if he doesn't like it, why should i we mentioned a way to play this

space. i will say it again, nasdaq makes an all-time high and dan ridicules me all the time about exchanges, although it is not in the equity space, the chicago mercantile exchange continues to make all-time highs and, might i add, isn't terry duffy going to be on our show in subsequent weeks? >> i believe in october. >> that will be very kpooesing. >> yes you can read more about we works ipo plans from cnbc's alex sherman on our website beyond meat getting grilled after davidson initiated coverage on the stock, with an underperform beyond meat falling more than 3% on the day. brian holland, senior research analyst at d.a. davidson brian, welcome to you. >> thank you. >> you think the total address of the market is smaller than what most people, most analysts are thinking, and you are saying it is smaller than potentially the milk market? >> yes so i think on a relative basis that's right we view plant-based as a solution within a broader market

there are, you know, roughly 30 to 50 million people in the u.s. who are lactose intolerant only 15 to 25 million identify as nonmeat eaters. that's important to us because the high-touch consumer in plant-based milk represents about 60% of the purchase. i think if you hold all else equal with reflex to the occasional buyer and you translate it from plant-based milk to meat, i think you get to, you know, a number that's probably at best 75% of what we're seeing on a share basis in plant-based milk frankly, it probably ends up lower than that because meat is a much more fragmented market than milk. >> could we be at a point, brian, just to play devil's advocate, where there's more than just the flexetarian and the people that need the alternative? to me, there are people that want to eat the alternative meat products because they want to lessen their carbon footprint or

other environment social reasons, are we underestimating that cohort? >> no, i think that market exists i don't think plant-based meat is a fad i think it is here, i think it is here to stay. i think it will take a long time it will be a slow build and, again, those folks who are thinking about the environment and to the extent that's part of their decisionmaking process, they're not necessarily a frequent buyer most categories in food are, you know, largely driven by the core audience, the folks who will go in and buy once a week, maybe once every two weeks so i think when you are comparing plant-based milk and plant-based meat, and that's what the company is doing so that's what we're working with as a proxy, i think that's what is going to dictate this category there will be folks who will my great over i don't know that they migrate over in such a frequent -- a frequent manner, such that it would drive the kind of numbers that are being thrown out there

right now. they will be there, but they won't be there every week. >> okay. brian, thanks for sharing that with us. we appreciate it brian holland of d.a. davidson with an underperform on beyond meat his price target, by the way, is $130 a share. >> woo hat is a flexatarian >> you go back and forth you eat regular meat and alt meat and you don't have to find an alternative, but you can choose to. >> not like a regular-atarian. i would not consider myself a flexatarian. sometimes i eat vegetables, sometimes meat, sometimes i eat them both together that's what normal people do nonetheless, beyond meat held 150 today, probably trading wise, that's a good place to shoot against. >> what is interesting, i didn't hear hem going against the competitive landscape at all my view is i'm not concerned about the addressable market i think we are seeing this --

>> kellogg, hormel, tyson. >> that's the probably with the stock. that's why when you look at where the other companies trade even in their best days, this is just a chip-wich. >> that was a fantastic sandwich, by the way. >> can flexatarians eat that >> more on beyond meat and that call on cnbc.com i'm millio i'm melissa lee. mere is what is coming up next netflix is under pressure as the streaming wars kick into high gear. what does the company need to do taon top we'll debate it when "fast money" returns it was sophie's big day.

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welcome back to "fast money" netflix has been a big underperforming over the past

few months, falling more than 18%. there could be more pain ahead as disney releases its new streaming service, but there might be a bright spot for netflix. julia boor sto julia boorstin is in l.a. with the story. hey, julia. >> it is worth noting we have seen a reversal of fortunes between disney and netflix over the past year disney shares gained 27% while netflix stock has fallen by 16%. disney's market cap is now nearly double its streaming rifle, just a little over a year ago netflix briefly had a higher market cap than disney now, two new studies project a shifting power dynamic netflix will intro to 219 million by the year 2024, but its dominance will fall with amazon prime growing to 127 million and disney to 82 million subscribers over that same time period so in the face of shrinking market share, where will netflix

go to find growth, especially considering that netflix's u.s. subscriber base shrank last quarter. now, it is projected they will look overseas and could ramp up investment in local language films in series in australia, poland, germany, france and the netherlands as well as russia. those are big netflix market with relatively few originals. we have to see what other threat other news streaming services will pose to netflix in addition to disney plus, next year warner media is launching hbo max, then nbc's parent universal getting ready to support its streaming service and don't forget apple tv is expected to launch its apple tv service by end of the year we may learn more about the apple streaming service, its pricing as well as the precise launch date an apple iphone event scheduled for tuesday. back to you. >> thanks, julia boorstin from

l.a. what do you think? >> i think it has been a trend for a high-market stock that on some level has been executing except for the best days in terms of stealing market share and having the ability to almost price their service -- in other words when they started to raise prices people were concerned and expected to be churning. they proved it quite wrong except when disney pops in with a disney plus that is an offering that is very, very competitive. i think the most important thing is multiple. i don't think netflix is failing per se, although i don't think they've proven they can be cash flow positive. i think disney has come in here and rerated and people are starting to question what i'm paying for. >> that's the main point earlier this year when they said they would have 3.5 billion dollars in negative free cash flow, half a billion more than previously forecasted, that was the issue when facing down a huge competitive threat when a lot of content is coming off what julia said, they can go to places where it is under

saturated with the original content, but they need to create that cash flow it doesn't work when disney has that flexibility >> quietly, the other player sort of in the space, roku is up 70% in a month that's a staggering move, on the back of what was a pretty good move in first place, off a pretty decent quarter a month ago. i think a lot of analysts i raising their pry target, i think roku is way to trade it. >> let's go around the horns for the final trade, tim. >> final trade here. >> there it is. >> transports had a big turn around this week i think fedex looks interesting here >> it is happening to every one of us. >> yes, especially the flexitarian. smh i think has gone too far, too fast sell it on monday. >> dan. >> apple, stay tuned to oa we will talk about how to play it in next week's event. >> i don't know what could be

better, rainy friday, get blankets on and watch "oa" coming up. >> blankets? >> there's a chill in the air. >> it is that time of year twitter, shaking off a lot of bad news, oits way higher. >> does it for us. don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next.

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hey there. live at the nasdaq in times square the guys here getting ready for a big show here is what is coming up. industrials, building games. but are they doing so on a weak foundation >> games only you can build. >> carter worth gets into the nuts and bolts of it then -- >> pick up the phone and start dialing! >> yep, it is iphone season. if you think apple has another hit in its pocket and trade war is working their way into the rearview, dan nathan has a strategy dialled in. and -- lululemon stock was off and running right after earnings. >> follow that rocket. >> keep your pants on. don't go