all-time highs in the overall market fed meeting, fed delivered more or less what we expected then we pulled back hard >> you know. the morgan, the kbw. >> we loaf it there have a great weekend. "fast money" begins now. and live from nasdaq market site overlook new york times square money i'm i'm tyler mathen in tonight on friday for melissa lee. traders are tim seymour, dan nathan appear steve grasso jefferiry mills. welcome good to have you with us. >> thanks, tyler. >> the big show, the drama goldman and its credit ka card partner apple, arguing over television pricing apple tv that is goldman seeing a 26%downside for the stock. apple doesn't like it not one bit. that company fired back in a

state at cnbc and the desk will play judge judy and we will rule on who is right and not. and then cashing in on regional banks, the best week in almost three years. but the kre is still underperforming the market broadly. the traders check the sector balance. in case you didn't notice it's indeed friday the 13th. >> oh, no. >> yes,s it. >> scary. >> are you feeling lucky unlucky. >> clint eastwood. >> always feeling lucky. >> roll that 44 magnum right now the only thing unluckier than broken miles an hour mirrors and walking under ledders is the big familiar name chipotle, alta all trailing are they bargains? let's talk about the market this woke three weeks in a row, steve of nice gains for the broad market. eight days in a row for the dow.

>> you know, i always say this i guesses in a station we say it's the most unloved rally that i remember in recent history everyone got so lop sided in august the positioning was so ultranesting that this had happen to happen but when. now over 3,000 everyone still getting benes it which means it goes highe >> you look tim at what happened since august a dark do youer month. often followed in september which is usually the least good month. >> not a great month. >> but there is better news on trade. or at least the voices of better news on trade. some of the macroeconomic data are better and it's clear that central banks around the globe are being supported. >> well, welcome tyler. >> good to be here. >> and to a squary friday the 13th that's right i think the macrohas been supportive and highlighted -- you think about september, it's the mirror opposite of august. look at the 10-year treasury bond 45 basis points recovery off the lee off the 6 oh basis points

rally. the other thing i would add is central banks are more confident. i know we don't trust central banks and not a source of credibility. but the fact of the matter, the central banks around the world not just within our fed showing some dissension. the but the efficacy of lower rates as an option that's good for risk assets and reflation assets and good for sentiment about what they say in the global economy that maybe the market was overly bear zbliesh jeff i know you're talking about rates in a minnesota i don't want to steal your thunder there. but pick up on what tim just talked about the move in the 10-year bond, this week. >> yeah. >> and over the past few days is something. 40 basis points about. >> it's a big move and the question is are higher rates bad for stocks for right now investors are getting confidence that higher rates mean there isn't something more dwoer in the competent. and the fed was ut tightening people were worried about the spike in rates i don't think people are worried

about rates going dramatically higher but in terms of how you want to position here going forward, it depends how tactical you want to be i think if we are sitting here 12 months from now, leadership reverts wak to the growth, the defensive trade. economic growth probably remains sort of on trend just below the curve, probably stay is flat i'm not sure you can count on political volatility going away. but to steve's point tactically the next month or so everything was so far to one side that i think you are still seeing the meme reversion coming aaii bullish to bear spread. 26%. now back to positive the 2%. the average is eight even near all-time highs you're still below that. >> dan is this a rally you cannive believe? >> when the s&p made new his it's tough to buy the breakout dating back to january of 2018 every new high has been skremtle 1 or 2% above the past segueing a bit to some of the stocks you are saying they are having a bad month

you mention chipotle i want to throe in mcdonald's. mcdonald's looked like most of august are ready to break out above 220. i'm focused on mcdonald's because obviously a dow component. they do as much sales in a quarter as chipotle in a year. this is obviously i think an important stock. and now it just dropped what, 6, 7% in the straight line. those are the sorts of names if you think about tactically, right, like when we make new highs we sold off a bunch over the last 18 months or so that's what you want to watch. to see if those names get overdone a bit because you have opportunities to buy the names is what i'm say sfwloog chipotle is up 82% year to date. i wonder if that was in the growth basket where you saw the rotation for add of growth into value. even into mcdonald's only up 18% year to date that was seen as a growthy name too you wonder if there was grant lart going on in the rotation. >> but, dan, no one was applauding when mcdonald's and chipotle and star bruks bucks

were leading the s&p higher. in fact everyone saying this makes no sense pb a sign of weakness, no wreathing but in fact we have had enormous breadth the last few weeks we have had banks basically breaking out transports, retail, you've had essentially the things that people wanted to see so i think the question is what down with the stocks. >> i just want to make one point about that, though, each incremental spot when we get to 2,900 that was a new high last year then the 3,000 a new high this year it hasn't been a great time to buy stocks because we had different rotations every time and we have had some of of the megacaps name driving performance underperform so there's been a lot of churn over the last year and a half. there is no convincing evidence to believe that this time is going to be different, that it's going to be -- especially as the rates start to go back up, that's a narrative i think is really important because when people didn't believe rates could go lower last year, the 10-year treasury was 3%

we bottomed out at 19.45 last month. now all of a sudden rising rates is bullish we get evidence next we can because whatever the fed says rates move one way or another then we have a sense of what investors really want. >> why would rates go higher rates would goo go highe >> they're overshaut to the downside. >> the downside which said we are going straight into rezblees less worry about that now than three weeks ago. >> but guys hold on you saw what the ecb did this week and the what the president said all week about our central bank do you think that just because the 10-year rallied 4579 basis points this week that rates aren't going lower that's the most rude crouse statement i think anybody could make now. >> and the ecb i don't trust but looking at fiscal policy is now being sought of as alternative to monetary policy which central bakers has no efficacy that's bullish the biggest economy in the world, biggest services component of the economy reports strength people were saying the u.s. was going out of business. the 10-year down to 1 ht 42 on

the 10-year was not a function of the u.s. >> people weren't saying the u.s. was going out of business preponderatesy saying that were the the in fact the positioning be- dsh jeff talks about the aaii if you look at hedge fund net long positions and mark pof clyne vich brought it up it's only gotten to the neutral, not overweight >> there's been a lot of reasons to bet against it. and i'm -- you've been right that everyone has been ultranegative. i think that's what's fostering the upside potential when you get the light liquidity days or blast off days, once -- you have to really get off your fence when you decide i can't buy it i can't buy it i can't buy it you make a new high in the s&p you're forced to cover the shorts there is only so long. >> excuse me finish the thought. >> there is only so long you can at this time sit it out saying i'm not covering the retail

shorts, not covering macies everything that hasn't performed. i'm not covering the chemical names. i'm not going to cover the industrials. or all of these trade names that are trade responsive, so you have to sort of get in the market and say, you know what, let me hold my nose. i'll cover 50% see where we land after the fed and after that news and all the dust settles >> before we move on i want to tie off the conversation about the four unlucky stocks that we highlighted at the top there, a.m. gen down 6% starbucks 6%. cmg. chim oemts the and ulta down 5% is there something tie are the core four together or are there the dplks particular to each company. >> i think it's a bit of both. looking at starbucks and chipotle steve mentioned they are way up maybe a 5% pullback isn't a reason to dive in. but fundamentals are good. alta a different story large percentage of the revenue in makeup it's a slowing part of

the business it's a bit different story there. it's been absolutely crushed knife through the 200-day moving average maybe a bit. >> overreacted though. >> right. >> to that point we have two that have performed and having have been the outperformers two that haven't been performers when you look at amgen it has fundamental reasons why it hasn't performed i would stay away from amgen i bought alta today because it stopped right around where that deets low was. and it's bouncing from there and i think it's good for a 10% pounce. >> even though bryce targets are coming down they're above 300 and then some i'm not an exert expert in the company but do some work on it because it's not overdone. >> let the record show the four guys on this desk have revenue invested in makeup. >> i was going toz. >> for as long as "fast money" does business alta will have good demand source let's say. >> i didn't even have a goatee five minutes aigt this is air brush. >> going to the chart of the day. jeff you brought it. you are saying the direction of

rates it o can be higher near-term. there is a bit of a debate here. so that -- and see signaling something for the beta trade where you can get more bang for the buck >> the conversation we just had a good zwag to the chart and it's ken can the rotation into value continue in i thought this was. >> not beta o'rourke. >> not beta o'rourke beta, beta for the market. >> right. >> you look right at 10-year treasury high against low beta as as rates paul the beta trade doesn't work as rates rise the beta trade works. the question is are rates going higher or not? as we talked about a bit as trade in the near-term positioning was so crowded in the fixed income markets i think there might be a bit to go there. look at tlt for example. come down a bit. but i think in the 95th percentile in terms of 200 day moving average you can see positions a bit

rates drifting high ner the near-term that helps the beta trade. >> what's interesting about the beta trade is next week we've a fed where we might get a hawkish ease. >> what does that mean. >> a hawkish ease a federal reserve saying they were making a mid-cycle adjustment and had dissension in the last couple weeks from different members and ex-dallas president come on nbc saying monetary policy shouldn't be listening to the white house. but, look, i think we can get a case where market expectations of the fed being a friend, as friendly as we thought it was, may not be so. that would abproblem for the cyclical or beta trade >> yeah, i think you're right about that i think it's all about perception does the fed back off because things are looking better so rates drift higher in an orderly fashion and people can shift to beta or is it complete panic because now rates aren't low still to be determined. >> you put a present these he is and you said near term beta

trade works near-term. how long is near-term? and what should you watch for telling you the traded is done >> yeah, i think near-term is obviously ambiguous. the next couple of months say. because i do not think trend economic growth has changed. i don't think the yield curve is going to steepen to 20 or 30 basis points watch the yield curve as a sign for what's going on as it relates to future growth expectations because i think as long as that remained constrained then rates remain in the trade willing range. sure, up to 250? absolutely but back to 150 and test that yes. >> we're coming back and talk a lot about this in "options action." >> a great show. >> it's a great show. >> when it is it on. >> at 5:30 eastern time. >> great show stay there. >> do you buy bush wsh what jeff's selling here. >> the it's interesting. s&p 500 on the week is up a little less than 1% on the week we saw the massive ramp and yield back going back to the comfortable level. the slowdown in the pace of equities, i don't see see that as particularly bullish. i think you need things to come

together the most whatever you call it hawkish cut we have. >> hawkish ease. >> hawkish ease. you need some increasingly i guess dovish commentary about the trade war. better data here in the u.s. you need to see earnings we're getting into october and then you have a ramp into the end of the year. and that could be the beta trade there. because you if get the other stuff that has not been participating starting to go up because you had all the other effects moderating, that's the trade to the upside i'm not certain it can all happen in concert. >> you come here and you visit it's a great day but i think you're aware that dan is nothing if not consistent he finds a way to turn this very bullish week in reversal into something, ah, you know. >> optically, nothing really changed, maybe some more soybeans get bought and maybe we're caving on huawei. >> the only prom is 200 many handle is higher. >> what do you mean 20. >> we're trading with it 282,900

in that raining zbreenl 50-week moving average holding the market. >> if you weight it on the sidelines and negative you had to be positive. >> leave it there. that was a 15-minute a block the time flies i'm telling you. >> it's you, tyler. >> coming up regional banks having the best week in almost three years. just how much more can the bank rally run? plus goldman going sour on apple. we'll tell you what's behind the bearish call on its friend, partner and tech giant and we are live from times square in new york city. traffic never moves that fast. neither dot pedestrians. more "fast money" though, right after this

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you're back on "fast money." and we're going fast now the kre regional bank etf getting a boost closing out best week in almost three years up 17% this year but still underperforming the broader market why? and will the climb continue in tim, you mentioned the reamle banks. financials had a good day today. >> i think the recentlile banks are the most interest rate sensitive. that's the trade i think has some room to unwind. remember went from 37b a a cold war on the 10 here to 1.40 i think there was pain in bankland despite the lower interest rate and what that meant for mortgage

rates, et cetera, while credit -- certainly credit spreads certainly holding up and tightened a bit. i think there is more to go on the trade. but i'm someone long money center banks and someone throughout the time has felt the valuations are defendable. the balance sheets are pristine. and even the capital allocation back to investors which is not why you necessarily by a bank. but it's why a lot of people used to buy them and why pension funds own banks. i like the trade i think the breakout has -- >> if you overlay it -- over rates as you were talking about before, it is just one to one there, so it depends if you don't think rates go much higher pch i think that we all probably agree on that, i don't know how much longer this trade can last. i think kre is going to be more dependent on rates moving higher even though underperformed the large money center banks i would think you are closer to the end of this run in both of these, the kre and xlf versus

beginning or mid >> dan, you say watch jp morguen. >> just went from 1.05 to 10120 schoesed new all-time when is the last time we said a major u.s. money center bank or any bank on the dploeb traded at a new all-time high in the last couple years here? that's the one you want to keep. got rejected numerous occasions the last 18 months at that level. to me i think if you can establish a new range, you know, given the fact that we have rates where they are, they are not going too much higher here then that could be bullish i know guy had a power pitch a couple weeks ago on citi trading at 60 went to 70 it's high from 10u7 10i8 wabs 80 maybe jp can drag some of those guys >> final thought. >> i think the jp morgan kmart looks a bit better than the regional chart the regional still making high lower highs jp looks poised to break out there die li pay be a dichotomy dween the money center and regional i think kre is at an interesting

point. can it break out through the downtrend? we will see. >> i want to clear back to being consistent i don't like them here i don't think you buy them i think rates are going lower. >> you did that clarified. >> fine. >> we're taking a quick break. i'm tyler mathisen and here is what else is coming up on fast. >> goldman and apple into a tug of war over the tv remote. who sees the bigger picture? we deepest debate when "fast money" returns this is the age of expression. but shouldn't somebody be listening? so. let's talk. we're built for hearing what's important to you, one to one. edward jones. it's time for investing to feel individual.

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as usual we were behind schedule. but sophie's enthusiasm cannot be dampened. not even by a run-away donut. we powered through it in our toyota prius. because a star's got to shine, no matter what. it's unbelievable what you can do in the prius. toyota let's go places. watch business news live with the daily free preview. access market updates exclusive features and the favorite primetime shows. discover the new cnbc app on apple tv >> all right, welcome welcome back let's talk about apple getting bitten today goldman sachs cut the price target to 165 from 185 the firm saying apple's plan to doll out a free trial for apple tv plus subscribers have a --

for apple tv plus to subscribers will have negative impact on selling prices apple responding today saying they do not expect impact on results. gentlemen whab do we wants to take a bite at the apple. >> i'll take a mall bite but i think it's a big enough apple for everybody. we have a case where goldman tried to talk about the accounting of services versus hardware and really say this isn't a services friendly as you want they tried -- it was a very interesting exercise that alone is not stopping the move to services that alone is not stopping the rerating in apple stock. whether, you know, apple plus as a preloaded service for people for a year is actually a way to get them hooked on the service remained to be seen. but there is no question that they are getting better use of the billion and a half installed base than they ever have. >> yeah, i mean listen, this is -- it is an accounting thing they are talking about here. but there is something else on

the hardware front to be worried about. apple units, iphone units are not growing anymore. its services growth is zpent on that installed base growing. if you start seeing a the chlt sps coming down that means you see grow margins coming down that's the hardware business at 60% of overall sales it's important if you lump in the sales on -- or theservices on the installed base you might not get the multiple that you hope on the services business. because if it's just being bundles in fl because who mow knows what the attachment will be after the year. >> people aren't going anywhere? how about hardware as recurring sfwloofs i love the upgrade program. and i think apple prime is coming to a theater near new 2020 that's a big are part of the story how you bundle it together. >> i think the accounting gets cloudy for me. when you look at goldmans accounting of it, i think that they're trying to be provocative maybe in the essence of the call but when you look at the technical on apple people have bet against it so readily and

now it's breaking out and eop technical level. if we can overtake the 23 marks. >> we have news bob iger of disney resigned now from the apple board. obviously these two companies have had a lot in common oefrp the years with pixar and steve jobs and so forth. but now they are competitors >> yeah, look, they clearly are going at the over the top in the streaming business it's hard to know what something like this means. bob iger is a busy guy. >> yeah. >> and i would say on some level it doesn't make a a ton of is sense. apple is a media copy. we talk hardware, services media. i'm read going that way. >> maybe a bit of conflict of interest there ultimately i don't think it has a huge impact on the stock if you look at apple stock it held the 50-day moving average 18 times not overly expensive it's a long-term story. >> it's a validation of the business model. >> yeah exactly.

i think you hold it here might have to be patient with the stock in the near-term obviously third biggest market is china iphone sales down 14% in the second quarter maybe near-term chopping but hold it in the near- >> any thought nathan you like it. >> you'll see new highs china is the issue. the stuff with apple and huawei are so related >> we have to leave it there we tone have final trades because we ate up so much time. >> it was worth it and he want leave time to say goobld to page jonah moving on. >> moving on within nbc to where you going to the entertainment. >> yes. >> specials entertainment. that be will. >> buy universal tok. >> he'll be there for thma'se cy processor aid. we have to go. "options action" is next see you later.

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all right. happy "options action" friday, shall. i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa lee. live from the nasdaq market site a huge show on deck for you. and here is what's coming up tonight. >> as the yield. >>en on the 10-year. it's flying. but caer