is okay. similar to bonds yields up a lot, but from very low levels same thing with the economic expectati expectations so right now we're in a zone where we can handle this kind of move >> and s&p only down 0.3%. we're out of time. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now with kelly evans >> and live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york times square, this is "fast money. i'm in for melissa lee our traders are pete najarian, karen finer man, dan nathan and by guy adami. time to play offense and easy on the clutch, uber and lyft finally getting in gear traders play the role of back seat drivers will debate but first energy stocks logged biggest day since january. the sector closed out of correction and this following a major weekend attack on saudi

arabia's oil facilities. if the outage is extended or if military action is employed, what could the further fallouta. >> first, welcome. this is the first time that you hosted the show. and your father is watching. so your daughter, the whole hour -- mike evans -- why did i say mike evhe have evans. >> too bad we are live are you the best >> and what is the fallout i'm surprised the market didn't trade off more over the weekend i'm like 25, 3 almo handle easy but none of it really happened airlines down a percent and a half and so to me this is actually a very encouraging day and this is

from somebody whos th has been bearish for a while. >> encouraging >> that is regards to the market last week we had a pretty hot inflation print. and so when you think about this, when you see crude oil go up the way that it did and the dollar stay big, to me that poses some sort of issue could be a really interesting fed day wednesday. we know the administration doesn't the rates where it is. so it could be an interesting week but the s&p is always that thing. >> does it change anything for the fed decision wednesday >> i don't think so. i mean, the trade issues that sort of not really theirs to trade, this is even more -- it is more granular i think than that

so obviously oil spiking this much, ten years ago it would have been a gigantic deal. >> so 20 cents at the pump let's say. is that the kind of consumer shot where you think that they feel like they have do anything in response? >> i don't think so. it depends how prolonged that is if you look at the curve, you know, they are showing oil back down in the 50s several months out. but i think that the market is sort of poised that we'll have another big leg down or a big leg up in oim or another big leg down i don't think that it settles in right here >> interesting >> my guess would be that we actually push it back to the down side. as the dust sort of settles, we start to see some of this, i mean it was amazing how many options we saw trading over the last three or four days of last week coming into what had turned out to be a growth trend it was absolutely -- from occidental and being beingacrose

various names, nothing but bullish activity they profited very well today. >> and 50% is what i saw during the session today. heavily shorted, some caveats there. but what now are those names where it says okay, this is a short squeeze or some kind of move like that and if you are bearish on energy then you have to get out as quickly as you got in? >> i would say the short squeezes only last for a number of days only i was lucky enough to be in these, but only because i had seen the activity through the al question ral -- algorithms but it is short lived. it works for a while but the big scheme of things, if you look out further on the chain, oil looks like it will be going back towards the lower end. >> and you see that already?

>> yes >> even if it is the case that this hangs on for whatever happened today, the fact that we are only talking about the biggest day for on energy sichbs january is pretty shocking why aren't there bigger reactions for the big cap names? >> when you look at -- i was looking at the uso that tracks oil and there was no real calling buying in that whatsoever so i don't think that -- crude came in last week, it was down from the high 50s for the low 50s. it might have just been very single stock related but no big bets in crude options or the underlying etf that tracks the commodities when we got that mid cycle adjustment, they talked about tariffs. and they are -- the market has found a bid at least stock

market because they feel like at least the rhetoric has been dampened about new tariffs but oil higher now, the dollar bid like i said, and we don't have a heck of a local of clarity. so there is a shock that could happen if they don't actually cut. can you imagine what equities would do on wednesday afternoon? that is something that i think would -- >> you think that that would be a plausible response to the oil price action we've seen? >> i'm just saying that the data has been okay. data is okay and the only reason why they did that mid quarter adjustment is because of tariffs and right now we're more optimistic about it. >> but to your point that you a that in a way it is not more ex-tex exten uhe eighted, you have energy to be the smallest sector into the s&p coming into 24.

>> so maybe the global economy is weak. s&p is down nine handles that is a remarkable performance to me. airlines which should have gotten obliterated, they were not bad. so i look at this and say understanding that the situation in saudi arabia will go on for quite some time, it will take a long time to get back online, but are market saying it is not a big deal i'm encouraged by the price action and i'm probably one of the more bearish people on the desk >> a couple other places, defense names, is that place to go if you think that the next moves here involve the defense stocks you mentioned airlines american at one point down 5%

earlier. and closed down more than that i think. >> and people railroad liwere l across the board but texas bank, people say this is bullish for the texas banks because you get a better profile of the companies that they are exposed to >> i would have thought that we would have seen more of a response in the defense stocks pretty muted so the market is telling you that this is just a -- not a giant big to do, it won't turn in on anything much bigger than this and the economy will keep humming. i was looking at some of the airlines a lot are not hedged, not great, but business is still pretty good i don't get it >> i thought we'd see a much bigger response even just because the market is so hot >> the defense stocks have already had a pretty good year coming in, so i think that is part of it some of it sort of almost priced

in dan back to your point about looking at oil futures, i think when you look at the liquidity and leverage that you get, quite honestly, what we had seen last week when i talked about something like the petroleum, today it went to $2. and you want to talk about movement and somebody buys 6500 of those and then they booiruy a few mor. so i think they are looking for ways to play what they see coming forward in terms of energy or whatever the space may be but the defense stocks are interesting. later on i have a pitch, i might have one of those names. >> that is a teaser. >> and we were talking about crude being on the move. our chart master says when it comes to oil, what goes up must come down. carter worth will tell us why we may see things go belly up >> so it is all about the gap. meaning when you get a security that either gaps down or gaps

up, in this case a drone attack, the concept is that the lowest price on the open is the highest. and you can see the gap on the chart. let me show you a bit of data and then we'll go from there past 10, 20, 30 years, there have been 15 gap, 51, 112. and all have beaeeen filled exc only two unfilled gaps so this is fairly rare or the notion that it will live on and not be filled is unlikely. so the gap -- these are not investable time frames one is waiting for this gap to be filled back from 1999 at $12 a barrel of course that is not reasonable if one is waiting for the down gap when oil was at a peak and starting to come off at 103, that is not reasonable

so all the others have been filled except now we have one [ today. and here is the setup going into the move quite remarkable inthat once agi a formation of some form can lead to ewomen will i quilibrium and then we gap above the line and held the gain, but not impressive and ultimately i do believe the gap will be filled so the two major untilled gap, 100 plus going back, one way up here, not investle time horizon and then one way down here tomorrow's lunch.able time horizon and then one way down here tomorrow's lunch it doesn't wash. so now energy itself, here is the xle. relative performance has been a

disaster and failed every single time when it has come up against its relative -- big move with other value stocks i don't think it goes much more than that. and then finally this is either the sad reality or something different. and energy is waiting in the s&p, 34.7% back to historic lows. my joumt my judgment is that it belongs here >> all right, carter, come on over >> i think he is right, we're filling the gap to the down side if it was a demand story, i'd be concerned. the supply will come back in all different forms. we are not nearly as dependent as we used to be and if a the bloroader market didn't react in a meaningful way, leaves me that it will

backfill at some point. >> so we know what is priced in right now. no major bigger geopolitical -- but what if that is not how it pans out >> acts of god youan't handicap but as of now, thes muted. and i think that is the tell that for now this is not the great event that it would -- headlines would suggest. >> and also a big difference in the types of crude we're talking about. ones largely going to china, big customer over there, the u.s. crude, a different refining capacity what are the implications if oil stays up here and you are china, you have an economy that is struggling does it cast your trade negotiations in a different light? >> it doesn't matter for the mar get so much because it is low weighting. and doesn't matter for the consumer because in-futuput price of thel

cost >> you buy them at historic lows, wouldn't that be a pretty good trade >> 30 plus percent of the s&p, that will also work. if something gets higher than 25%, you fade it but you need your career to do it. >> no problem. would anybody here think that energy doesn't he deserve to be the smallest sector of the s&p more a sign of the bottom than a long term -- >> i kind of do. i feel like it has been so unlovered and so shorted, maybe the short part of the story is over which allows for it to recover on only mildly good news >> would it interest you enough to get involved? >> actually, yes

>> as to somethiso something peg here >> you better get those two right i guess as a process, but that is the point. it is not as important as it ever was >> how long would crude have$60 say now it would hold. >> most of the gaps if you look backfill within about 30 days. so that could be a time line give it a month. >> carter, thank you very much coming up, you nighted autoworkers union striking against general mot moteers but one strategist will give you his playbook at fidelity, we believe your money

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we heard with how long a strike would have to go before it would have an impact on the balance sheette general motors. analysts are in the range of $50 million to $100 million. most think it was probably closer dto $60 million or $70 million. they lose 800,000 vehicles a day. but remember, they have plenty of inventory moodys saying gm's ability to contend with a short duration strike no more than one or two weeks is comfortably supported by its inventory, cash and its credit facility. and so that is the overall average for general motors le healthy industry average is closer doto 60 days

and the silverado pickup truck, they have over 90 days supply. so not like that you will see a difference at a she have k4echep anytime soon and gone are the days of the chants on the pickett line they hired a deejay playing music here as they walk the pickett line >> and what are we supposed to read in to that, settling in for the duration >> reporter: well, he is here for the night. is truck us as odd, but that is what they have done. >> so if this is areis a distran for days or weeks, ford, chrysler, import, tesla, is there anybody who you would think would obviously benefit from this or it wouldn't work like that? >> reporter: in ordnot immediat.

it would have to go five, six weeks where a potential customer might say i want a silverado and i want it in this color, you can't get it i may go across the street but even then, buyers are incredibl-krecredibly loiyal. so you would expect to to extend much further than anybody is expected >> all right hope they have more deejays lined up enjoy tonight. phil lebeau in detroit for us. and 2016 this time gm was a $37 stock. you look up where is gm, a $37 stock. and within a whisper of theal time high on the s&p 500 and the last decade where you can make an argument it has been the best decade for autos. lump that on the back of ford which is even worse story. people talk about valuations

compelling, i get it, you look at the numbers gm probably 6 1/2, ford probably lower than that. but stocks don't go higher when they should. that is a tell >> i think there is a broader m ism pli indication this 50,000 autoworkers on strike, there is about 220,000 auto work workers in america pc it supports like 10 million jobs you don't want to see it go too long the government shutdown was a drag on gdp. we don't want this going in on q4 >> so doesn't it tell you about how diminished the car industry has become >> and we know that they have the headwind of the tariffs.

>> i don't think that trump will let it go too long that is what he absolutely doesn't want to see in the economy sgl economy. >> but if you are trump, how do you and a half gate the politics of this. we know his distaste for gm management >> but he is a republican pro business so, you know, that is a tough tight rope to walk but i think that it is really important if this starts to drag on i don't think that he would want to see how it would unravel. >> and let's not forget this is very early we have five or six weeks before it becomes concerning. so a great headline, but this has to get further down the road before it become something that we are concerned about >> and there is no outcome that says you have to buy gm stock here >> from a stock trade, ford and gm are very different.

i collected a bit of a yield, sell calls, but wasn't enough. no performance >> so what should the company do >> they are moving, they are offshoring job, idling factories. that is what they are doing. and the president of the united states can't force a company that has a fiduciary responsibility to its shareholde shareholders, they will have to make difficult choices every step of the way. >> but weren't they bailed out because the ismca. [. >> one issue why that bill has not passed, these jobs that were next next coy and cmexicnexmexie was confirmation dems say we still don't know that the jobs won't be more competitive down there so it is not really a new nafta,

but looks like it did before no way to really enforce this stuff. >> so no one wants to own it i'm kelly evans and you are watching "fast money." here is what else is coming up coming up, market bull tony dwyer says time to get offensive. and could uber and lyft finally be getting it in gear? don't go anywhere.

a big bull believes that you

should be playing offense. tony, you're saying that you think that we have had mini recessions but it is over now? >> on the show a few weeks ago, we had called foed for a corre. we thought sentiment got bad enough and that some of the today i take was already discounted, that it was -- especially on the ten year neot yield and time to get offensive. so the supporting evidence is if you look back at 2011, 2012, when the pigs were there and degrees wgreece was going to gef u euro that is a as bad as a trade war. but in october of 2011, the stock market bottomed down 19.6%. ten year didn't bottom until july of that year. on in the meantime the s&p rallied 22% led by defensives.

off of there you went up an additional 33% so the point is off fents should be offense should be on the field all signs are on the 10 year made a low and if that is true, it is replicating the 2011, 12, 2015, 16 period where there was clearly an striindustrial recesn >> so are you making a call about going up to 3% or above? >> i think that it will go back to 2.5%. nobody on the planet thought that we would go back to 1.5% ten years in to a cycle. so what i think is happening is going back and looking at the 1950s, there were four recessions very brief market only went down about 20% each time and then the market went rip into new highs. very similar to now. and i think technology, just in

time inventory, more consumption as a percent gdp is preventing that, but clearly we're having these mini recessions driven by global industrial output >> so you have market corrections and 10, 20%. but that is a different story than everyone who keeps bracing for we're going to have another financial crisis and here it comes again. >> but let me ask you this we've seen a major moderation in the talk about trade, massive stimulus in china. action by the ecb. no one thought that they would go down to 4.5 or something like that but if seems that we are in a spot to get out of your mini recessions what we need to do ten years on from this economic delay s crisis, it seems like it is

getting a little untenable and the other point about the s&p, it doesn't break out. so what is the thing that breaks it out time? >> the ecb disappointed in their act. their commentary in terms of what they were going to do to make sure that inflation got back to where they want to be is what drove rates in the market and the spike in the ten year. they got ahead of it not by they cut rates by what what practice. i don't care if it was 20 or 50 basis points if they say we're done, market will get creamed highest interest rate cannot be the feds fund rate so what gets us over 3,000 is that again, the global economy is weak i'm 2409 going to be the strategist saying it is good it is less bad in the data.

you can't have the market as a neglect testi negative and the market is high. so i think that -- >> given us the playbook then. >> offense kelly, this is offense >> what does that mean >> meaning consumer discreti discretiona discretionary, industrials band again this was our call from a couple weeks ago that you get this reflation trade as long as the fed stays ahead of the curve. >> you want people to put it on before their decision wednesday. >> well, that is our call you make it or you don't viewers know i'm not the greatest hedger. but again, whole xee is tkey is

convince the market that we won't become europe and go into negative -- i asked a sales person today who i literally begged wh begged two weeks ago please refinance your debt. please refinance your loan. so i went to the desk today and they said no, my husband wants me to wait flower rates. that is what the fed wants to avoid. it is as low as it will get. let's get in there so this churning in the market today i think has more with we got extremely overbought in two weeks. so maybe oil is an excuse. and the fed meeting, who will really take an offensive playbook into the fed meeting. and i don't want for suggest to the viewers that i will be calling the next tick. i'm awful at it 37. >> but you think they should refinance. >> i think they should refi innocence. it will be interesting to see

how saudi arabia responds. i'm waiting to see the global response to the attack >> banks are interesting citi has traded between basically 60 and 72 on a number of different occasions and we've seen a pretty big move in citi since tony made that call i still think that the banks are in a range and we can agree to dos agree. but going it my earlier comment, the fact that the stock market held an extraordinarily well in the wake of what was pretty -- could have been really negative

news s if. coming up, could a rideshare revival be on the rise and pete's fast pitch. much more after this i'm off to college. i'm worried about my parents' retirement. don't worry. voya helps them to and through retirement... dealing with today's expenses ...while helping plan, invest and protect for the future. so they'll be okay? i think they'll be fine. voya. helping you to and through retirement. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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welcome back uber and lyft getting the green light after an list d a analystd them to a buy rating analysts were saying both stocks down over 20% in the last few months, regulatory concerns are already priced in. so are the roads all clear >> i don't know about all clear, but you go back and look at lyft's quarter which is a month and a half, two months when the stock was trading 61 or thereabouts. i thought it was a really good quarter. they basically gave us a pathway to profitability and they had this overhang in terms of shares. >> is this the quarter when they said that they were losing $5 billion because of the ipo real related comp >> lyft i thod hught had a good quarter. stock traded from 6 it 2 down to

will is and price action has been good. not suggesting that it is going back to 62, but i think it will move >> i have to see lyft tell us what their path to profitability really is. we haven't teen seen it. they say we have seen a path into the future where we start to make money. and that is important because until you give us that, why are we investing we still have no clue. >> what about the uber eats option which lyft doesn't offer.

you are basically getting that for free at this point >> that is a money losing endeavor as well right? that is so competitive so i don't even know that that -- at some point that is valuable, but that makes me also lean toward lyft instead of uber >> the guidance that they had given as a private company. so guiding investors appropriately. so we know what the overhead supply looks like and i think this stock gets back up to the high 50s and nice lyft colors over there karen is sporting. but your play is that it is a pure play on north american ride share. and if they continue to execute, that is the one that you want to be in. i can't speak to uber.

>> even with the california crackdown and other states might be coming? >> i think sentiment got bad and last week scott had benchmark seemed geeked up about the story here and so this is -- >> geeked up higher. >> but not only did they not share a share, but adding to the -- not speaking for those people, but adding to them and that is what want to see. >> let's talk about amazon shares under presss changed its search algorithms to favor margins. amazon spokesperson told cnbc that it did not change search results to affect profitability.

>> i thought we were going to guy on this one. >> she was looking at you. >> i still look at amazon and i see an incredible valuation in terms of height. so i'm a bit not as bullish as probably most of the people on desk i've missed this run i still think this is a company that is literally not what everybody thinks it is it is a cloud company and this is all just a side show. so i don't think this matters as much as the entire cloud world aws is still king. >> and you could make the argument that cloud is less and less porntsd when you thiimportk about the competition. but the stock -- >> but back to the story

this third part yy 1e8ing, thisi the future of their business they are doubling down on ret l retail this is a company that will do over $200 billion in sales they are just -- >> but -- >> and they have an avenue to become much bigger >> with low margin that is a problem. >> you can make the argument if you pulled up a chart, the chart looks broken so near term, stories like this aren't good. and it only adds to the potential for regulatory issues because this is the sort of thing that lot of people will squawk to congress about >> absolutely, what independent could of scrutiny will it draw still ahead, batter up pete stepping up to the plate to pitch a defense stock.

he will give you that name and check out shares of toll brothers and one trader is betting that and one trader is betting that the home builder has mor (classical music playing throughout)

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there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. welcome back markets feeling the heat with the dow breaking its win streak and just two of the s&p sectors closing in the green so where to go the best bang to your buck? pete in a jar rhas his fast pith >> and we saw option activity in here, but general dynamics, the

ceo has been there since 2013. and i love the idea of the aggressiveness toward cybersecurity with the acquisitions $10 billion acquisition made last year. so she knows where the company need to say go in the to future. you look at the fundamental story, you get a nice dividends yield, a stock that right now trades at about a 15 pe. maybe a bit higher a little lower than some of the competition, although lockheed is somewhere very close. but i see a lot of growth here as well. some of the positives about the earnings and cash flow $3 billion a year. that is strong you look at the revenues, extreme extremely strong so plenty of up side

this company decembspite the tht can't at high, this is not at highs. i think there is room to the up side and by the way today they were buying up side calls, the 210 strike calls to the up side. so somebody thinks that this stock does break lieu 200. i happen to agree with them. >> quick question. they are doing the same thing asaro space. shouldn't they gererated like apple? >> i would be on side with that as well and i don't think thats that happened yet, but i think it lifts the stock more. they have 25% give or take in four different categories, all very -- obviously very close to equal. not quite 25%. but close to that in terms of

what is really driving this company. you hit on a couple of them. they have a lot more diversity in terms of where will you get your revenue growth. >> no more questions let's get to the vote. are you buying his general dynamics dan. >> yeah, i'm buying. that is a good presentation. a stock obviously some secular trends, it is a cheap stock, a mid single digits eps grower >> yes, i'm not a good artist, but i'm a buyer. i like the pitch >> we bottomed out in department like many stocks did i don't think if we will retest the old high, but i think that

we get close so i'm a yes buyer >> and pete, thanks. desk has voted but are you at home buying pete's pitch? you can vote in our twitter poll we'll review the results later in the show. plus check out our cramer cam. jim is laying out his big winners and losers in the oil move you don't want to miss his take, that is coming up on "mad money. for farmers here, this is our life's work. but when a recall happens, perfectly good food goes to waste. now, we've got away around that. looks good. we're on target. blockchain on the ibm cloud helps pinpoint a problem anywhere from farm to shelf. it's used by some of the biggest retailers everywhere. a nice wedge. so more food ends up on your table, is that daddy's lettuce? yeah. and less food goes to waste.

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cowelcome back toll brothers broke out to a new 52 week high bank of america upped its price target and that call sent the options market into a frenzy >> yeah, so this is interesting. usually you don't see this sort of activity on a broker. but it may go twak whback to wh was saying about playing offense. total options volume 15 times

average daily volume most was in calls. and today traders were buying calls right out of the gate when the stock was 39 bucks the stoct 49 a buy of 8,000 for 43 krepcents. and they appreciated a lot let's go to the charts look at the one day chart, like kelly just said, new 52 week high look at it on a two year basis t the 40ish level was kind of near term desk catechnical resistance and trading as high as 50 at some point in 2018 so a cheap stock trading about ten times. obviously not huge growers but if you think that there is

kind of some supply demand dynamics that were shaken up by the rate move, that is why the names are moving lastly, that is implied volatility, price of options got really cheap into this consolidation. so making long premium directional bet in options was a good way to do it and i think that is what traders were thinking today >> a big move on the close for more options action, tune into the full show this friday at 5:30. up next, final trades. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation?

it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade

by the way, she's the it wasnext mozart.g day. as usual we were behind schedule. but sophie's enthusiasm cannot be dampened. not even by a run-away donut. we powered through it in our toyota prius. because a star's got to shine, no matter what. it's unbelievable what you can do in the prius. toyota let's go places.

it is time for final trade before we go, let's go around the more tha horn. >> nfl ticket, go browns >> and yes my final trade was the final trade that i did today buying more puts >> and lyft, really feels like it is starting to bottom >> and did you have fun? >> i had a blast because you guys are the best. i don't have to do anything.

you do all the hard work. >> and i think delta air lines traded well. >> excellent guys, thank you all very much. it has been a lot of fun we'll see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" begins right you now. "mad money" with jim cramer begins right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. a few years ago if i told you that a drone raid was about to take out half of saudi arabia's production and our stock market would bare