direction the market would like them to go that's been the pattern. >> the news conference we have live on the "closing bell," starting at 2:30 likely finish during the "closing bell. we finished higher 20, 30 points that's do does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site over yook times square. this is fms. i'm joe kernen in for melissa leap traders pete narjen tim seymour and brian kelly. guest trader the technical analysis head chris ver own and the big show tonight. fedex shares i already read this early on preparation for it and i love it process crumbling like we had card board who came up with that? that is. >> i take credit. >> i know. after the shipper fails to deliver op quarterly results. >> sues that tomorrow. >> more from the trade -- not tell anyone i got it tomorrow. >> create more from traders and

conference calls later this hour fire sale. sharps at nordstrom down almost 10% today. the traders assess the damage. plus would you rather? home depot getting the downgrade after lowes gets the upgrade whether they nailed it or not. in taste you hadn't heard foam is fed day steve leastman lays out the big picture from the fed survey. >> wall street expects the federal reserve to cut interest rates tomorrow amid growing concern about economic weakness recession fierce and the trade war. 100% of respondents to the cnbc fed survey see the fed cutting rates by afare quarter point after announcing results of the september meeting, nearly all expect another quarter point cut by year end. the problem is that forecast for lower rates come with a reduced outrook for u.s. growth and increased probltd of recession the schans of a recession in the next 12 months soared to 11-year high of 32% of are according to

the survey below 20% most of the year forecast growth is forecasted to 2.2% this year and sinks to 1.8 peppers in 2020 an economist joe naro the ff writes a trade war continuing into next spring or summer almost certainly continuing to recession spreading world withheld senior investment strategist at the philadelphia trust company says recession talk is overdone. yes there has been some slowdown in various economic indicators but the outlook for robust holiday spending is good based on high level of consumer converse driving growth and stocks higher. for now, respondents to the survey see slight gains for stocks but continued low interest rates the question is, whether fed rate cuts rb sufficient to offset the negatives from the trade war and global economic weakness the high level of the stock market amid continued forecasts for lower interest rates suggests the markets bets the

fed wins the fight back to you. >> all right thank you. leastman trade it we talked about in b.k. if coin was spelled with a coin with a k. you could be kboi. >>s i was kidding as you debase the currency from lowering rates and you know with 3.5% unemployment instant bitcoin the trade or gold. >> bitcoin or gold that's what you see in the markets. as much as i don't want to see them debase currency as a bitcoin holder i'm happy as can be they want to do that. that's one way to pray it. if you think about the problem the fed has right now or one of the problems is that the yield curve is still very flat and they want to get the banks lending again. that's what i'm watching you look at the regional banks k.re be the regional bank etf. if that yield curve steepens that should be positive for banks. i would look at kre see if you can buy it on the breakout in

the afternoon. process the other thing i would said -- and this is controversial. is that i wouldn't surprised if the fed cuts rates and the dollar goes higher >> ooh. >> boom. >> whacky you never know what he is going to say. >> i think we put it in context. let's re-examine how closely the period parallels 94, 9 a very aggressive fed in 93437 a couple surprise cuts back half of the year what led come out, the rate sensitive cyclicals you look at the strength in home builds j. weather ins the market is the wall to worry is high. whether it's fade, china, oil, but stocks act well here respect that. >> joe, well by the way. >> thank you. >> good to have. >> you what we see in terms of the eradication of the momentum trade whatever that means i don't think that that changes. but to the he had if, so if any do a 25 and if they do a hawkish cut, that is something that i

don't think this market is p. o. boxed for. remember the mid-cycle adjustment of the last fed meeting was something that had the market somewhat perturbed. so depending on where you thanksgiving the fed lines you up in terms of the next move, i don't think that the markets are ready. and what brian is says is ultimately it would lead to a dollar positive environment. look at the dollar closing today -- it's a great chart and it's not great for a lot of risk assets but it's great for reflation and great for asset prices >> you know, joe, i think it comes down to the communication come from the fed itself we have seen this time and time again we have had two situations where the communication from powell was not good and the markets reacted almost immediately. so is there a quarter point cut? leastman has a quarter%. is that basically priced in? i think it is. but it's the kmupgs that stands out. you look at volatility process volatility in the 149s people are not scared right now. where are they going to protect the poefrmts you brought it up at the top gold and silver?

you are seeing some that have i know you brought up bitcoin as well i'm not in the world as much but gld has been an home run this hob a move started in may that has continued pulling back a little bit but i'd call that almost a consolidation move than pullback can it find itself once again moving to the you upside today at 142 pushing at pushing to 17. >> interesting that polled gold move with a stronger dollar. usually gold has the invert and that's broke in year what we've seen is the macrofunds hedging out the central bank risk with both gold and actually bitcoin as well. >> when you look at all the macrotrades whether long yen or gold or german boones or mid-cap software it's been the same trade. what i think is underappreciated that the he dreg degree to which the last four five months cyclicals acted well despite economic concerns. i want to respect that message. >> yeah i think if you saw the

semis closing closing at highs the oil headlines of the last 48 hours are oning i think more of a red herring for investors thinking this is leading to something substantial. i don't think the fed needs to acknowledge it process i think you have a case where it had people gut check the trades going on appear and it's into the value side of the cyclical chain. i don't think you are going to a seller cycle cyclical we think the economy picking up you are going to banks that are defendable and as the yield curve steepens waengs are the best trade. >> the great thing about the headline so far in terms of gold and silver has been the velocity of the moves because that move has been so dramatic so fast that that in terms of a hedge you don't have a total -- you don't have that much risk downside and yet huge rapid moves upside that balance poefrmts, almost like a put right now that's the been the put in my portfolio. i don't own any spdr puts even with volatile where it is process now because the trade

has been and continues to be the protectional trade is glt owe d pch slv and individual names with the gdfs. >> the yield in lows are in does everyone agree or not. >> i'm not sure you can -- i don't know if you're positing that joe or throwing it out. >> i'm asking. >> i think it's difficult to say considering where we were and the lack of confidence. >> the 10-year was never that low. >> we were at 1.36. >> i'm sorry the 30-year. >> we said it earlier, the mechanic has been extreme in terms of the move up and down. we have had three standard deechgss for the bond market thing things you don't really see. theed fundamentals taking you lower, some he canal but some the ecb where the germany yieldsy coming lower do you have confidence in the european banking sector? do you have confidence in the ecb to jury eengineer a sim lus package. >> as we are in ut culling phase

from the fed they are as bottom yields before they end cutting i think it's happened. would you buy the banks i think we have to dow fop john said buy deutsche bank. guy buy it if it's headed up. >> on the risk spectrum. but ecb has made a mountain saying we are not letting the banks deteriorate. you've seen a rally in deutsche bank i would look to it regionals if you get the steepening in the yield curve that's bank stocks. >> jp morgue all-time neshd have stopped the fight appear boom it came back you have to respect that message. >> i'd go with the beta names in the banks. not so much the regionals because i want the big boys. bank of america, citi it i own those. >> long jp morning morgan citi. >> i love jamie dimon but i think that's at a value level and the undowngrade going to neutral. but i look at the other two names and runway to the up side. >> this is really easy i mean -- i was like.

>> you're good, man. >> yeah. >> you guys. >> like having andrew. >> at some point, though i think it's important to bring in another voice. >> it's really, really easy. >> wetted a big bull on next to me. >> and we've already discussed in nieskes line. i have 25 years i refused to say all eyes are om son some something i think the middle of the country eyes are on the fed. let me rephrase. many eyes on the fed you said some eyes. >> some i don't think it's as many as many. >> i would say the fed is a key focus to for the markets. >> that's a better way all right. next guest says something happening in the market we haven't seen since the financial crisis could be a insofa the next recession. morgan stanley equity strategist mike wilson always in a bad mood back to 3005 the high end i have seen it before talked to you about it before. next thing i know you're on a show i'm going wow is it 2800? do you ever waver? you are still took talking about 270 oh still on the s&p.

>> talking about a range basically. >> back to the high end. >> here is what's might be changing last last time on your other show we were talking about the raenl and we were at the low end. >> right. >> and we're high again. >> i thought you were bad again. >> i naught he was a genius last time he was on now i think you're wrong again. >> i think what's going on and see -- did it's not the fed as much as in july now it's about trade. we got home the trade thing is going back we got to go back a year and a half this has been going on 18 months people are finally talking about the recession. the in the survey you mentioned earlier that's been going on 12 to 18 months the time for the slowdown call, the recession call was a year ago. that's why utilities killed it and bonds kill it stapled kills it defensive growth stocks have killed it that trade is base played out that's what the momentum trade was all about we priced a recession in august

in a lot of the markets preponderates at 1.43 that could be the low utilities 1,000 basis points of relative outperformance in one month. extreme. cyclicals thrown in which. i don't think it's all in one flush. but this could be a kickoff move where the markets think about maybe a recession but close enough no the he said of the unicycle i can look through it that's why they want to buy banks. >> going g to be the craziest recession we ever had if we stay under 4% unkwmt. >> if you have a recession which it's not at fait accompli. but if if you have recession it unemployment goes 5.5 to 6%. we don't know if we're having a full blown recession it's maybe a 30% to 40% chance we don't have to go through 2,700 oh on the downside it's a rotation that will be a signal to buy all the early cycles >> it's weird then suddenly you see the saudi oil fields

suddenly a spike in oil and all the things you are saying why a rest session nothing on the forecast then aufrlds you have a part of a reason. >> when you debt -- always get an oil spike before the end of the cycle. this could be the final tipping point because it will raise prices for companies like fedex. >> we'll talk about that. >> and also consumers at the pump. >> but mike what do you think about the bred/8 of the market -- first of all, i think your caution -- and you've been consistent with this i think you've been right to be consistent with it but to the extent that the market over the last three, four weeks haves given you the breadth wove been looking for from the pitkat a long time what does that do you for you. >> two things first of all the curve resteepens from the back end. that's constructive i have to ac knowledge that the financials working some of the other cyclical groups working that's a good siep typically if you look back at

recessions in the past, 1990 por the 2001 recession, very mild. a chap chop. months where you think i got to buy the cyclicals and it's a chop unemployment goes up the next year and a half two years if there is a recession and it looks more and more like that's where we're head zblod if that's the worse we get in the next recession i'd grew to that right now. >> that's a typical mild recession. >> in terms of the -- from the lows and unemployment. >> right. >> a couple years ago we thought that was full kwmt at 5.5 or 6%. >> correct that's typical. >> i'm gichg you a chance zmoo do you feel lucky. >> do you want to make 3,000 the new le enof the trading range and put 23.50 on the high end you can do that right now. you can do that right now if you want -- >> i'll -- >> you can do that this is deal or no deal. >> cnbc might come after me. >> you don't want to do that you

got 2700. >> we have been using 27 oh 00 up from the old case of 2,400 a year ago we hit in december. we've been moving the targets higher on the low end of i think it's premature isn't the cap. 3050 the old highs it's premature to say 3,200 is in sights let's see what the fed does tomorrow. and what happens with the trade mini deal in october we dope know what's going on there. frankly the tariffs in september they're on there's been no cussing about rolling those back there's been talk about delaying the 5% increase. and so i think that 10% tariff has to flo through to the real economy. >> you like this or -- would you rather get up early? rather doesn't matter. >> it's you or the show. >> doesn't matter which show thank you, mike. >> goodbye thank you for mike wilson hi, let's -- he got to go. we're trading it. >> we should trade it.

>> i'll i've never been shy. look we have a case where i think the fed tomorrow has had data over the last 30 keays whether the ism, the industrial production number out this morning whether the payroll numbers that is going to -- the dissension we have seen in the fed that came oh out in the med innocent at least this is a fed that is wrong ready to be proactive. and therefore for a market in the the short-term dpiet the positive dynamics waspies on the highs. em above 250 everything snapped back. i have trouble in erms it of the week to two-woke trading range seeing we can get much out of the way here. >> i think at the end of the day the policy rate in the u.s. is the highest around the world, when we look at right now money growth and two running 8% nominal growth 4% how bearish can you be on risk assets when there is excess access. >> and i'm not. >> let's is not discount the stim la active of bond yields

over the period. we have taken 175 basis points out of yields. there is a estimate lating effect i think it's why the cyclicals act better. >> b.k. if it's -- there a way you can bring bitcoin into that. >> i can bring bitcoin into a lot of things. i don't think you necessary mri have to bring it in tomorrow we are at the high end of the range. i don't think as an yt, do you need to go out and just go 100% into the market at the high end of the range, not at all i think you wait for some kind of pullback. there is the risk as pete mentioned the fed has a miscommunication problem and the market is else sells off if you are buttish then you boo i it. >> to your point that's what you look for when the opportunities where there is oversell. all of the panic seeing oil jump 20% in the over overnight trading and look how fast it retreated back under $60 it's amazing the speed and velocity ofway we are seeing all of this rotational stuff is

happening so much faster than anybody can comprehend there were great tupts daily in the market. >> gentleman coming up home depoe there are a lot of p. o. boxs that can get wet. i can't get that -- the visualization. i love that. home depot falling on the downgrade np chewy and fedex reporting after the he will. the what's moving the stocks lower? live from times square in new york city. and there is much more "fast ne rhtft ts.moy"ig aerhi ♪

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well back to "fast money." home depot taking a hit at the start of the day before climbing back off lows after analysts at guggenheim downgraded them to neutral after ramp up in expenses, after lowes got an upgrade to outperform from analysts at wed ewed bush. who would you rather own fair to close my name is kerne not an if. >> you i have no idea, joe.

>> on the market. >> no, no. >> and i love home depot i have to say i'm long the stock. despite the fact that the multiple is a little stretched here and you know last quarter we ge we got -- in august we got numbers pointing out same source sales in the u.s. 39 1 versus 3.2. what's the big deal in the margin and scale these guys put to work are to me -- there is nobody near it look, the low ''s is great too s in a fantastic duo mri that's amazon proof i like them both. >> robert ellison has done unbelievable job at lowes. he has closed stores margin right now still in favor of home depot, but looking at pe pch home depot higher than lowes. because of that i think you have to look at right now, a home depot i do not foent it right now. and the sold it i think the reason is i think the pe is too high i said at the last break when you look for opportunities job

joe when i get sell yofs like we do and always do that's a name on president the top of my list i'm looking for the tune to buy it when it gets pushed down for all the wrong reasons. >> think about the chart hd spent the last two years between 165 and 220. this breakout is only a few weeks old. you don't spent two yeerp sideways and have a rally and it's over this is the start of the next move. lowe just behind it on the verge of the breakout you have to say just mother well werth breg out. >> i would rather way to foy for lowes on the longer term bull run or on a broke out. i'm looking for lowes to prove it. >> if you played would you rather two years ago forward today you'd be down the middle the two stocks have performed evenly over two years. even though it seems as if hom depot outperformed

lowe has been a rerating story that i think continues. >> thanks guys i'm joe kernen you're watching fmz on cnbc. here is what else is coming up on fast. >> announcer: coming up, ship shape. we'll get the first word from fedex's conference call. plus the many levels of game maker zhengcai and why it gets a do-over. "fast money" back right after this the massive capacity of 5g with ultra wideband, so more screaming, streaming, posting fans... can experience 5g all at once. this is happening in 13 stadiums all across the country. now if verizon 5g can do this for the nfl... imagine what it can do for you.

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welcome back "fast money" we have earnings armt on pet supply company chewy. fall in the after hours for more let's hit head about a back to quarterbacking for chemy and chew. >> chemy and chewy chewy beating

on top of bottom lines but the public looking for more chewy ceo came on cnbc earlier talk talk bag the growing in the e-commerce space and riding the macrowave. >> if you go back three to five years, the online penetration was low single digits. coming out of this year it's probably you know in the mid-teens. if the research is correct -- and i believes it because we remain bullish on the index -- over the next few years you can see e-commerce penetration north of 25%, 30%. they're mature categories north of 40%. >> chewy had to fight off aggressive pricing from amazon in june and july but the company is saying it's excited for how it's executing the strategic pl the u.s. pet care market estimated at $70 billion. to that point chewy raising the revenue guidance and third quarter guidance came out higher than the street expects. the ceo says he bets people would rather order online than

lug home heavy bags of dog feed over and over again. back to you yb john. >> eric you've been watching this show tonight. >> i think you're doing a great job. >> do you prefer me to the -- the host last night? just curious >> schedulewise for me it's better if you host. >> that's very obscure and i think. >> we should keep it that way. >> it was well answered. >> chemy on dhuy. >> good answer by the way eric tactful. let's trade this do you have a feeling on chewy >> yeah when you look at the chart, the big levels has been 29 if you are long you just have to respect it as the line in the sand i can't be long on it. but when you put it in context with the broader ipo discussion, we work, it's almost the anti-speculation that we work doesn't count. it almost looks the opposite of 98, '99. if you are worried at euphoria we work not coming i think

argues against euphoria. >> we in a slate of ipos not doing well pl choua has done well and to be clear in a segment that there is enormous loyalty but there is 450 brands out there in terms of pet food on amazon at this values at 2.3 times to ev to revs it's expensive i think what's it comes down to. >> i like the name because they have a path to profitability which which talk about all time with usual ub are and litt which one haves apath and others doesn't. uber doesn't lief lift does these guys are on the pag as well as they continue to own. let's in the forget you talked about the online space they own 52% of that that's against amazon, against wal-mart, pet co, everybody else they are winning and that'sa anaire we know great profitability. when they get it turned the right way i think there is a great path for profitability for this company and then i think it's off to the races. i see this as a -- >> but they have to get to

amazonfers that's the biggest concern. >> you got to get through amazon. >> amazon is coming after them and coming after them and price indent they don't care they'll lose money to gain market share that's a problem if you talk about the public company when they were private you can play thatgame. but now it's a public company people won't like the fact that amazon is trying to eat your lunch. whether or not chewy wins in the end we don't know. but at these levels you have. >> $73 billion industry. they are winning right now. >> i'm not arguing the long-term. i'm saying if you are competing again amazon if i have a choi choice of the stocks do i buy stocks buying amazen >> yes. >> bk's answer no. >> pete's answer yes look at target, wal-mart look at the companies even kroeger everybody said they are out of business. >> they did it. >> they're up. but even kroeger. >> et cetera this is not one of the stories you are talking about getting into e-commerce not account competing heed to head on e-commerce and saying we are undercutting prices the

reason is target and wal-mart went up this they had no e commerce chewy has e commerce that's what they are >> pete, you know the stock on the relative low list was wal-mart and wal-mart on the high list. >> they are going lower everything amazon does has zero margin except one thing awsp everything else is a low margin business try to attack everybody. and they've been losing losing lose losing every time. >> i'm not arguing to buy amazon boitd. >> i could take you both on. but i mean i think -- i've actually agree with what you are saying target and wal-mart have been great to own in the environment. you've seen a resalgs. i don't think you want to compete with amazon. you can't argue that amazon hasn't crushed the competition and worried about profitability later. and berewarded for it. i think in this environment at choua that's what worries me about chewy. december 10th you have an expiration longup in the stock something else to think about that. >> you did the bk did this and did you the pete like this.

>> we are do this all the time. >> jimmie doesn't like that. >> no jimmie doesn't like that. >> owe -- we don't like that. >> go to net flex. >> going to net flieks. >> chewy no the the oem one reporting after the bell the fedex call under way and as we pointed out the stock is sinking like wet card board with us the retail route taking down the biggest names is this a sign that consumer sh tsure could spell trouble foaghe overall market? much more "fast money" right after this you can be sure of. they're changing by the nanosecond. that's why cognizant created a unique engineering approach to design and build new digital products. learn how cognizant softvision designs experiences and engineers outcomes. ♪ cool. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. check out the xrt, retail etf falling today as investors worry that the recent surge in gas prices could hit consumers where it hurts look at nordstroms, macy's, kohl aeg's some of the biggest losers in the sector. really can it just occur to everyone that there is -- what's today, tuesday. >> that's a one brain cell trade joe. the bottom line is that trade is definitely -- i don't think the reason you see nordstrom trade off 9% you have seen a snap back in a lot of otto a lot the names. the department stores have semg

secular issues if you want to see -- some of this- first of all the impact of oil on the retail sector in the short to medium term is inconsequential. when you look at these names they are coming out of an enormous rally what outperformed everything in the last few weeks? retail. >> i'm not impresswood knows names. and the reason i'm not they have to show us the money so to speak. ive this to show that they can survive in the market which we haven't seen yet, owe joe what names are up even with the xrt and tj maxx, lulu limben many of the us on the devg like the names because they're in the right pot, the right ceo, strategy, great in the e-commerce and peting some of the names you saw up there when you listed the names that specifically were getting hammered, they don't have that and that's the problem. >> i'm on the same page. this is not about crude. this is about what happens to weak charts and technical setups rally and fail at downward at

209s 0 day moving average. >> rallied 40% in 9 sessions i mean that's. >> you squeeze the shorts and fade out resistance. look at the strong technical setups lulu niccee, wal-mart, target, tjx trading great. leave daveiating good kmarts and bad kmarts. >> lulu is the retail name for me that has the best opportunities injury not only the growth but the right product at the right time. that's doing well. the idea that retailer trade down on oil is just completely suspect. i mean, how many times have you said, oh, nordstrom is up today because oil as down absurd. >> crazy. >> you're speaking speaking to me. >> you're speaking to me. >> you're speaking to me i even got the new kind with the new fabric and more comfortable what kind of company calls them abc pants this that just takes. >> abc. >> i wear -- i they are comfy.

>> i got a zipper where my wallet quos. they got it all. inside from the fedex conference call option traders going all in one. casino stock really we're breaking down the action don't go anywhere. much more "fast money" from all of us comfortable in our pants men. >> announcer: delivering alpha, the most important investor summit nine years running. strategy from leading alpha generators direct access to policy makers and government leaders and september 19th see who is calling the shots now. go to delivering alpha.com to attend this year's blockbuster event. >> you will come away with ideas that you can put to work immediately. >> announcer: plus special guest vice president mike pence talks economy and trade war imctpa reserve your spot now, at delivering alpha.com

>> announcer: early trading action as the markets await a fetid edition, the company investors are watching and why strauk squawk on the street, 9:00 a.m. eastern. tomorrow. welcome back to "fast money" as we mentioned, fedex sinking after hours. it's now down almost 10% its earnings call is under way frank holland at headquarter was

more cramer said this is what to watch today. fedex. and i don't want to watch it, frank. it's making me kweezy. >> certainly a lot to watch. fedex shares following sharply after missing top and bottom line as well as weak guidance for the full year. ceo fred smith saying performance continuings to negatively impacted by trade tensions as you mentioned, the call starting minutes aigt. >> beginning in the fall of 2018 it had become clear that global trade disputes were dafsly affecting manufacturing in europe and asia. there by slowing international shipping demand. >> so trade a big concern. fedex admitting that ending its contract with amazon with ground delivery hurting epa year. saying the amazon contract for express air delivery with hurt epa after the bell yesterday fedex announced in is your surcharges for home delivery this season and rate increasing for home and freight delivery

starting in january. part of the company plan plan to focus more on domestic e-commerce today the company saying it's dealing with increased cost for ground business as part of the plan certainly not a shock amet of deutsche bank downgrading and ups the two companies raiding similar but different 2019 ups up more than 20% year to date fedex down 2%. the drop for ups is a direct result of fedex weakness back to you. >> thank you, frank. chris thinks despite fedex transports are rev up. that's a contrarian notion i think chris, it is is it not. >> i think it's contrarian notion and certainly fedex down 10% after hours. i want to remember this 150, 55, of a level we'll talk about that in a minute. but the bigger question is there

a read from what fedex told us about the transportation group i'll show you a couple charts that injury are important. the dow transports still below the highs from 2018. but what is already breaking out is the transportation advance decline line so if we took a cumulative sum of shares that's already made new highs. breath under the surface for the frrpting is good we see that with a number of transports making one-month highs. you had almost 75% of transportation stocks making a one-month high over the the last several days you see the spanx in new highs pb, the ad highs breath under the surface for the group is better than it gets credit for we see fedex certainly down after hours. i think the big test for this won if we view it as a bellwether can it respect the 150 level that provided support three or four times over the course of the last 12 months

uts an important level but what i want to focus on the longside is ups, a better chart. already come out of the downtrend. you had a severe bear market here the last two years. we have started to see it reverse. 50-day, back above the 200 any pullback in ups is one you want to buy. if you look at rails which corrected over the last number of woks kansas city southern which i happen to think is coming back. this is ksu over the longer term has broken ut oh of this really big base we took it lack longer, 10, 15, 20 years it kaem out a huge base we like the message from ksu breaking out u ups a leader in this brace breath in the transports better thap people give credit for fedex the outliar but overall long transports here and certainly a contrarian call. >> chris come back here. that's an important call if you are right about this your world view should change little

bit a little bit and mike wilson should have gone from 3,000 on the low end. >> wraer. >> you are right about transports that -- that does not indicate a recession and the overall market if you believe dow theory at all the overall market catches one the transports. >> and we think of dow to your theory in two respects old dow with transports and new with the semis. and we have the transports improves under the surface and spis there i'm reluctant to get too bearish here. >> let's say this let's not let fedex avoid all the blame for this number. fedex basically talked about the global economy fedex has had a lot of issues they brought upon themselves this is -- deutsche's note this a lot of people say this i would say this i think fed smith is it fantastic i actually said buy the stock at 155 where it traded back to i like the trough valuation subpoena they baun aircraft at the peak haven't integrated express as well as expected this speaks to chris's point

fedex's problems might be just fedex right now even though we know the world spt a great place but it doesn't mean a disaster. >> and i think fedex problems. and obviously the ups outperformance says a lot about that but the stock made a $20 move since september. i mean the fact that it pulse back and guidance weak like you said some of the integration not going well that's more of a fedex problem than ups and the rest of the transport zploos the fade op that stock after the reports is crazy. >> you're right. >> for years and years. >> if you think about what the problem with fedex is it's europe, agia, the trade war. what doesn't necessarily have the trade war? the rails? and if you have supply chains coming back to the u.s. the rails in the longer run might benefit. >> we have to go, again. >> yeah. >> you guys. >> somebody has to pay for this. >>s this is an hour-long show. not three. you could do three in your sleep seymour. coming up one trader made a more than $4 million bet that one casino stock about to hit the

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wedge back to "fast money. we have got a news alert on the flavored e-cigarette been. let's go to adidi roy with the details. >> it's official, joe. governor cuomo just announced. new york dplemted the first in the nation ban on flavored e-cigarettes including all flavored e-cigarettes except for meng ol. the state will be evaluating whether or not to include meng ol in the -- in the ban. over the next couple of weeks. the governor said in a statement new york is not waiting for the federal government to act and by banning flavors e-cigarettes we the safe guard the public health and help ep countless young people from forming potentially deadly liechlg habits tp to that juul, the leading e-cigarette manufacturer has a statement saying we agree with the need for aggressive category wide accurate action on flavored products that's which we stopped

selling those the non-traditional processeds where fighting unknown ingredients under unknown manufacture standardings and we comply with local laws when effect it's been a tough week for e-cigarette manufacturers like juul opinion california yesterday announced that it would be cracking down on counterfeit products as well as requiring certain warning labels on those types much products so we will see what other states follow suit. altria, shares, of course having a vested interest in juul. they are flat right now. >> all right adidi thank you. can we just -- just say oxygen is the best thing to put tsh shall it dsh are there other things you should be -- is this a hard thing to come to immigrants fwrips with for you time. >> it's hard to phillip morris -- altria. >> don't you think that's good advise for youth. >> you shouldn't encourage people to go out to. >> the whole idea of e-cigarettes you're asking me

how to trade it now you're asking me whether to do it or not. >> you just is a have-on set of lungs. >> i agree the concept of e-cigs was to get off that this whiches destroys the wrungs wungs the fda has a lot of work to do. the choud, vapor hangs over the entire sector. you know, think about the 129.8 billion any spent on 35% of juul -- -- the and right now it's a headline that's very difficult. >> b.k. >> i wouldn't buy phillip morris doctor altria on this. they have more problems. you have 48, 9 other states likely coming right behind this. and i'm with you, say no to smoking. >> yeah. >> right i think. >> i look at nigerian. and do you have any vice sns you wouldn't put anything in your lungs. >> i like tequila.

but -- allhonesty i'm not smoking a lot not your device. >> let's see if we can find something with a lot of vices. is coco around check out the chart on las vegas sands one heck of a roller coaster but one options market trader is maki a $4 million that the casino stock could cash in on gains i see a little videotape he were around you, mike, did you just high hide that. >> side adidi over. >> he is in san francisco. mike khouw in san francisco with options axe action. >> lapgs sands very early four times the average daily call volume mostly the result of one large trade, the january 60 sees somebody played $3.20 for 13,000 representing $1.3 million shares despite the weakness of the buyers of the calls is making a bullish bet.

west because we saw this opening trade that it was going to be the 3.20 strike. increase of 8.5% to break even where the stock was at the time of the trade this is something betting on a good bounce after weakness in las vegas sands recently. >> all right, mike, let's trade it what do you guys say. >> you mgm call buying we had las vegas sands mike is talking about ut in hitting mums timespy believe it in it right now and seeing wynn. we have paper in there as well probably overexposed with knows three right now. >> the 60-61 levels is huge. this failed at highs for the better part of the last four mohns. you got to get would have 6 there is a read on hong kong when you process ut it in context of mgm. >> some relief there, right. >> if that's sustainable the stock has to respond. >> i think macao and some of the gross gaming revenues haves not shone signs of turning around

despite that hong kong is a -- there's been relief in the short run. i like wynn and i certainly think it's a trade war stock but i'm not sure where we are with the trade war. >> it's interesting on this trade because 8.5% would get you close to the recent highs or maybe even just below those highs that we have had before. so i think in terms of risk reward this is probably the way to play if you want to be long. >> okay. thank you guys for more pgs ohs action frp ka the full show friday 5:00 p.m. eastern up next, final trades. >> announcer: pgs ohs action sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade ♪♪ ♪♪

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it's time for the final trade we are going around the horn i have one minute i mean it pete. >> i got to tell you something i love t-bone or koko. las vegas sands going higher >> big conversation about banks whether it's a steepening yield curve or whether it's a defensive environment or we may run into headwinds b.a.c. get it dup. >> longs banks heap jpm any pullback long the stock. >> and rates are headed up that could happy. >> are rates headed up. >> i think if the economy transports turning up long jpm. >> b.k. >> since i have bitcoin joe.

i should say bitcoin but on the bank tray. kre. >> boy, great. >> we had a good group. >> i've never seen better. >> guy had some issues i hope he is okay. some car issues we got to go that doeit fs or on "fast. see you back here tomorrow "mad money" with jim my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to put it in context s call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. what if the center holds what if the republic is in better shape than we think and our leaders in washington can find a