rates again unless the economy observably gets better that's an ee gas station equation we can live with for now. >> where where is the catalyst coming from. >> that's the other question it seems to be running out of steam. i would say it's broad enough and credit has been good it's hard to see how it falls apart with microsoft and jp morgan at all time highs >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city times square this is "fast money. melissa lee. trard are sim seymour. steveias o and dan nathan and guy adami from our own delivering alpha conference. billionaire investor says she is short grub hub the desk debates then tesla's model three wins a top safety rating after the crash score but is now a safe time to get into the stock the traders take the wheel on this microsoft breaking out its growth, maybe value whatever it is it's outstanding performer

but a buy here and now does microsoft hold the key to new market high sns guy what do you say. >> first of all, you have to -- you know, we criticize dan on twitter. >> really. >> >> he is criticized. >> dan. >> why. >> why is he criticized on twitter. >> for being do youwers. >> but can't coined maga we can fire the graphic at the top of the show. dan does know a lot. >> the maga trade. >> yes. >> and look at the m. in maga as we know is microsoft so. >> some hat. >> on straight valuation price to earnings it's expensive look at the last quarter i mean, eps beat was significant. the revenue beat was amazing azure grew 64% year over year. operating margins 230 basis points better year over year it's hard to cast aspersions yes trading y'all all-time high.

people make a big deal of the $40 billion. i want 4% of the market cap, not insignificant. answering the original question it can rally into earnings >> mr. maga. >> what is a i. >> you from a trading standpoint, the stock broke out in early june about 130 basically trading between 130 and 140 since then until today you had the break out on the good piece of fundamental news to guy's point i want not moving the needle but gives you increasing confidence to that they give money back to shareholders this is also a company that's been smartly aquis itive when they paid for linked in i think a lot of people thought they were crazy then you think about now in the cloud and how they use the different pieces of the puzzle to get recurring revenue it was a smart buy i think this thing you trade it, playing for a reakout. it's going to consolidate as it does from time to time but there is other legs higher in this name. >> will this be caught up -- if we see the continuation of

rotation out of growth into value does it get caught up or fall in both buckets. >> this is value it's in and apple are the two value names. apple up 40% microsoft up 38% both yielding the same thing they're both value but i will put the caveat as dan said it backs a little bit it's got to hold 140 so real short leash it's only a smidge taqle term above 140. you got to hold out but if it breaks out it's 150. >> i would phrase it -- i agree with steve on apple. i'm not sure i could call microsoft value here apple falls into that camp the reassertion of the growth trade is what it is. i point the out about samsung breaking dan brought up samsung on the call because i'm an e.m guy. look at alibaba up through 182, 183 breaking through the upside of resistance thu think about what that means and global

cyclicality those are the biggest market cap stocks. will they lead the market? of course? and apple to me is the place you start. because i think the way apple traded through a difficult two weeks is extraordinary the release is behind them whether you liked it or not. the company has leverage to pull the same one microsoft pulled on buybacks you name it. >> back to the original question is microsoft the key to new market highs >> as if no one answered it. >> kind of >> no i don't think microsoft is the kai to new market highs. you want the banks to participate. at some point you need some of the material stocks some of the old rust belt names that have been under pressure. so i think microsoft is a great peg. dan was a genius to cone that term maga but i don't think it holds the fortunes of the broader market. >> what's interesting my contention has been always everybody talking about fang and netflix doesn't move the needle as far as importance the thing about maga in general was microsoft was the only one

confirmation highs in the s&p 500 since january of 2000. the only one really. google had a short one alphabet in july but fell back i think you have constructive charts right now in google, in apple, not so sure -- jury ut you out on amazon it's been in the up friend since december but i think they hold the key a bit. >> they are the only one that is can hold the key just because from the mere -- just the mere fact of the percentage it's not energy we saw energy blip up. but energy is nothing as a percentage of the s&p. i want got to be the large cap tech names that continue to perform they've already outperformed and they must continue to perform. >> i think you have everything guys i think you have the value that's following the growth. the value would be the banks and we talk about bank valuations there is a ren to push back on valuations but look at jp morgan and look at the follow through from the financial community. but the other part what have we got two weeks ago, the great rotation meaning higher yields

and move of also banks but transports and some of the industrials. that's the combination here. so for everybody that's said the market hasn't had the breadth you need the leadership. as you said microsoft can give that and apple gives gnaw that lives luch gives a lot. >> the transports look really bad. looking at series of lower highs. >> if you took out fedex would it be the same chart. >> you're right fedex is weighing if you look at aerials doing fine the rails are certainly a place to be hiding out. >> who drew that chart mike santoli before they tossed he said with jm morganen microsoft making all times he posed it differently we don't look like we are collapses which is interesting. two dames names we've been talk bag jp morgan above 120 it's a level from three times back over the last 18 months. >> you never look like you're collapsing >> i wouldn't put it in two hands. >> klf looked weak ob a granular

basis today. i know there was concerns about trade and other things but the xlf closed weak from where it started strong and gave up ground. >> on the day. >> on the day. >> the beg begging to be asked and running around in your head. >> let's see if you're in my head. >> you know i am. >> i don't think she is going to admit it. >> she is saying something like well what is the mechanics microsoft is that sort of. >> that's the question i asked in the conference call today yeah, sure you guessed. what is it >> what's the next microsoft, guy. >> call me crazy steve has been right about in i think collectively around the desk we've been right to cast aspersions with this name. but ibm if you look we might be on the precipice of maybe ibm turning that aircraft carrier around the first time in six or seven years. >> wow. >> is jeanne rometty. >> maybe the redhead acquisition and. >> the number was shocking to me

and i thought the percentage of hardware you still think is a huge number in ibm and it's 8%. >> they're slowly turning around couple that with the blockchain investment and maybe there is some -- maybe there is home. now katie huberty all over apple and the axe. she believe initiated ibm with $170 price target. it's crazy it's a bit of a -- a high flier but maybe ibm could be something like microsoft was five years ago. >> all of you guys are crazy. >> that's why we have conversations. >> that's right. >> crazy is a strong word. i appreciate guy's attempt to get in there and give us another idea the turn around story at microsoft and ibm sometimes are comparable old glory translated into new world glory which microsoft has done i don't think ibm is doing it in the short-term how about facebook it troubles me to say. i've certainly not been constructive on facebook if you see of the rest of the group going which not facebook

just above the 1907 resistance if you look at the chart all of these consolidated all of the headlinesing related to regulatory pressure break up the company you name it and they digested it. if this market moves with microsoft membrane has to be a part. >> we sound all geekd up about maga cap tech. i think you want to go back to sysco guiding and what they said and the change of commentary and then fedex the other day and then adobe which has been a stock market darling that guided down now the stock is kind of flattish or whatever but i think heading into quarter end i think it's really important to keep an eye on some of the things out in front and we're seeing weak forward guidance because of the uncertainty. >> fedex and adobe okay next guest says microsoft and one other dow stock hold the key to the mechanic let's go with todd gordon with trading analysis.com what are you looking a at. >> and i climatic because you have been talking about bull stocks

but a beautiful up from upfriend here and now technical you couldn't draw a more picture perfect parallel trend channel this is the stock pr prerepurchase from 2016. announcesing the next one. we are towards the upper end of resistance i trimmed half of my personal position couple weeks ago wish i didn't i added the other half today you will encounter resistance at about 155 just a heads up in that sourced all the way back from 2015. just a beautiful uptrending clarity. the other one no surprise, jp morgan just a big awesome breakout from a channel. in an underperforming financial environment. i mean i mean it's hard to be bearish in this market with the charts here. looking at the breadth and some of the reasons why i think the broader markets will continue. let's look at advance decline. advancing stocks, declining stocks on the nyse -- this is interesting. this is really over the last six months it's been a leading indicator two prior occasions. looking here this is may to june

area the ad line broke out well before the s&p did in that exact time period. the same thing happening here. this is so obvious unbelievable s&p has not yet made a new high. you can see advance decline, like goodbye another indicator look at advance declineville minus declining volpe the slansing shares seeing more volume than the declining shares a breadth indication we should continue higher. how high should we go? if i put the el wave hat on which i love the way i see it is the first push up first number one a little bit of skongs this is the widespread participation for number three going back to charles dow thaeps the widespread participation this is the fourth wave and i do see one more wave five push up doesn't come in we don't find resistance until 3,800 next 12 to 24 months in the s&p. i think we're going higher

>> did you say 3,800, todd. >> that's my upside target. >> what kind of. >> two years, two and a half years. 5 years. i don't know we'll get there eventually. >> eventually that's not a forecast >> that is where technical resistance comes in you can see it it couldn't be more perfectly drawn. we will encounter resistance depending on the angle of aresident straight occupien on the kilo heel resistance comes in at 35 oh oh in a low volume environment it's a higher technical resistance depends on the angle of approach. >> all right, todd, thanks todd gordon trading analysis.com let's say it's 3,500 what todd said 500 points from here. >> i see resistance a little lower than todd. i see the overshoot at 3075 and 3,100. you get a real overshoot level, you get to 1350 but as todd said he could be talking about a two

to five-year time horizon. we're talking about as soon as that deal is inked you are looking at 3150. >> yeah. >> talking about trading channels is one thing and where we have come from where we go. the more important thing for the market is justify valuations and times in the market when people are worried about growth and people willing to pay for microsoft. willing to pay for higher safety multiple stocks. and that probably shl probably is included apple although i don't think it's a high multiple stock. that's the environment we're in. if you want the allegory in the time frame you can understand is 2016 where we came out of this growth fear, the rally we saw two extraordinary rallies in 2016 taking us to 2017 that's what it feels like. it feels like the transformation from going to recession okay things aren't that bad even though not that good and that's the back drop here. >> coming up, the dean evaluation is back he will tell why to avoid the ipo and look for value instead

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>> mr. zuckerberg how did the meeting go to. >> what was your message to lawmakers mr. zuckerberg can you assure lawmakers that your platform will not be manipulated ahead of the next eek? did you talk about possibly breaking out facebook? did you talk about privacy legislation? are you hopeful it comes to the floor before the end of the year are you ready to deal with california's privacy legislation? >> that was our ownual mui do a valiant job asking questions mark zurich rk questions this after he met with lawmakers on the hill did you get any answers from anyone todayuale >> we got a couple of the answers from the lawmakers not mark zuckerberg. we note zuckerberg met with three republican senators mike lee, tom cotton and josh holley each meeting lasting 30 to 45

minutes. zuckerberg did not answer questions from reporters at any point this afternoon but the senators were a little bit more talk aactive mike lee said they discussed bias against conservative was anti-trust legislation, the 230 liability shield and data prief spi. meanwhile josh holley said they had a frank conversation and the senator told zuckerberg straight up that facebook should sell off what's app and instagram apparently zuckerberg was not receptive to the idea. but facebook has outlined four areas it wants to engage with congress harmful content, election integrity, privacy and data portability. holley was skeptical solve some of ideas particularly spree led frameworks around data portability. he didn't get firm commitments for changes from the company and that's been talk from facebook but not a lot of action. melissa, zuckerberg will be in d.c. tomorrow. we see where he goes next back to you. >> i presume sul be on his tailualen. >> do our best.

>> ylan mui in washington thank you. senator lee is important he has the senate anti-trust committee here what's at stiek here tim was say processing the market goes highary erran facebook participates they should ride the rally. >> interesting for facebook and alphabet are trading within a few% of all time they have the ftcdoj and the stock acts well facebook earnings estimates got cut dramatically for 2019. starting late last year mid-year to the end of the year and expectations got low and it looks cheap especially when sales are expected to continue to grow at 20% plus a clip they are not selling off those different groups or anything like that. and their mote gets bigger >> this is the first appearance on capitol hill since the hearings of 2018. >> and you can make the argument that actually bad news could be good news for facebook maybe it's more valuable entity

process if they break it up whatever it looks like there to tim's point it pains me to say but it's traded well since april. basically higher highs and lie higher lows. you wonder into the october 30th release there about does it trend higher into earnings i believe it will and re-test that all-time high at 222 or there abouts >> from capitol hill to wall street the ninth delivering alpha conference taking place in new york city where the whose who thayer top ideas let's get to leslie pick we are the highlights. >> big themes today including public versus private markets, the complications of negative interest rate and the fallout from the trade war with china. there were also mixed views on the state of the u.s. economy. >> american economy is booming it's absolutely undeniable. >> we think the consumer is the bright spot in a u.s. economy. but that cap exand the

manufacturing sector is obviously in recession. >> the short-termism of investors is what kills the long-term abilityto compound my biggest fear is people are uninvested from the hangover of 2008. >> in addition to macroideas notable investors gave specific picks. jim chen ohs soak spoke about two shorts including in grub hub. the stock fell sharply after he criticize the the company for making almost no money per order. he said he was short a kidney dialysis company leon cooperman says he is long energy and and another bullish on uber on soviet bank disney is his largest holding direct to consumer stream. >> leslie thank you. leslie picker at the conference all day there in new york city which pick would you go with or go against grasso.

>> i agree with chen ohs and grub hub the competition is way too tight for them and there's -- becoming such a commodity advertised business process. they were the darling and now they are thrown out. i don't know how much lower it can go but it seems everyone is lining up to be negative on grub hub. >> you have amazon delivering food and uber eats and both are linked to lose money on everything they sell. >> i'm not sure anybody perfected the business model but the valuation is what you can go after in the environment where the competition is coming from all sides good for jim this is a stock at $160 stock traded $140 traded in the mid-60s. the question is how far you push the short. at the valuation there is something left. >> it's fascinating that we have -- we have door dash all of these in the private markets still funded by vcs. still afforded to lose money to compete in the space i think it's important to go back to remember that grub hub and seemless were public years ago and merged they recognized this is a really

tough business s in a company that had a billion dollars in sales last year or this trailing 12 months and had on a gap basis net income of $26 million telling you how competitive it is. it's hard for all of those ones still private to come out to the public mechanic. you're seeing more skongs. >> i don't know where mr. chen ohs is are the short the st. croix this was a $60 stock now trades at a big valuation. but you got -- it's scary stock. 32% short interest you have the headline shake shack partnering up. mcdonald's that's not insignificant i do think there is downside but you have to ask, you have seen what happens with high short interest names before. and the violent moves up i would be -- i'd be a little bit of scared from the shortside at current levels. >> taking break here i'm melissa lee. you're watching fms on cnbc here is what else is coming up. >> is owning costco stock

turning into too much of a good thing. we'll explain. plus tesla's model 3 winning a top safety rating. but is it a safe time to buy the stock? a debate straight ahead. more "fast money" after this

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[ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ welcome back to "fast money. check out beyond me. finishing the day higher shares well off the peak but the stock up more than 500% since the may ipo as all of this as rival impossible foods had a key ingredient approved by the fda sending soaring to a $5 billion valuation. and rolling out tomorrow at guelzowen a southern california supermarket. plans to sell products in

grocery stores nationwide next year not all rose in the ipo uber down 25% since the sky high valuation and they aren't even the scariest ipo tale. let's bring in the dean of valuation himtz to help us make sense of the ipo market shine a light. professor great to see you >> good to be back. >> so let's start off with beyond meat. it's knocking out the door at this point. >> i think it's interesting because beyond meat had the game to itself. the only macrobet you could make if you naught vegan and vegetarian was on the horizon. but that's over now with impossible foods not suggesting the overnight correction but now we have a game with competition. and i think the competition is only getting wider because they're going other listings in the space. the space is going to be big the question as it is is there enough room for all the players to become big players? i don't think there is.

>> it may be early to think of a valuation for impossible but in terms of -- i mean if you think the beyond meat valuation has to come down, then -- then the impossible valuation can never be as high as any point in beyond's history >> it's never too early to start a valuation. i mean you're going to be wrong and horribly wrong when you start early but you have to start early on the companies and learn as you go along. i think that, you know, i would be inclined to believe that the companies are converging in value sooner rather than later simply because when i look from the outside i don't see why one company should be worth three, four five times the other. i think there is a convergence coming when more players enter is the pie getting enough for for all to stay big? that's the big question. >> let's plof to uber because that seems like it's the poster child for quote unquote failed ipo and that it's below the ipo

price. at what point does it look attractive to you. >> uber and lyft at the prices they're at, i think -- if i were going to jump into this market i would pick lyft over uber still. simply because uber ambitions scare me when you are too ambitious you are pending too much if i were making the ride sharing bet i would make lyft over uber bup ub he shall is not badly priced i value at about $30 per share at the at the time of ipo. and it's very quickly adjusted down towards that level. pu i just think lyft is a better buy. >> in terms of thinking about lyft's valuation, i mean, do you impute that part of the valuation into uber for its u.s. business or does lyft have a much better valuation in the u.s. just because that's it's only market and it's focused on the u.s. market >> it's not just that it's got a better valuation even if you gave uber and lyft the same market share of the u.s. market,

lyft is a better buy because you get at a better market cap relative to the valuation. uber you are paying for the global ambitions in car service as well as uber freight and all the rest of the bets that uber is trying to make. and i don't think you want to spread too thin in in business they have enough stuff on the place with car service that going out and looking for more trouble doesn't seem like a great strategy for me. >> i want to move on to some of the ipos in the pipeline peloton i'm not sure what to compare this to? are interest comparables what do you use. >> if it breaks through in the space it's going to recreate the fitness space right now is splintered you don't have many players with more than 2 to 3 billion in ref flew for peloton to be worth 8 billion in in market cap, 26 to 29 offering price it's closer to 10 than 8 because of the options outstapg

they need 8, 10, 12well in revenue. either they recreate the market by changing the way we exercise -- and thoef a case to make that maybe the game is changing or they are not going to reach that it really has to recreate the fitness space. it's a fitness -- if you think about it it can't stay a cult company. you can't be a $10 billion company with only the 500,000 or million members. you're going to three, four, five million members and paying $40 a month that's two and a half times what i pay for netflix. that doesn't strike me as something most would be willing to pay for whatever content they can deliver. >> it's to me tim. here is what you can be constructive you're negative on a couple we spoke about talk about the overall environment for the ipos is it it like there is not necessarily a plin of glory or despair the cost to capital is it is almost free. are we seeing the plin roll out? and is there challenges to that?

>> i think the really challenge is i think vcs have encouraged companies that scale up terrible business models and horrible governance and given them higher pricing. if there is nothing good that comes out of the we work offering maybe the only thing we get is perhaps vcs look at the business models they push on companies. i've talked to young start-ups and the pressure to scale up is to great you end up with the huge companies in terms of revenue with terrible business models and i think -- now i hope to see when i see an airbnb perhaps a greater sense of realism about how to make money off the revenues and that's what i'm hoping the we work message is to young companies coming public. >> thank youso much great to see. >> you thank you. >> the dean of valuation joining us from san diego. so the silver lining for we work is maybe more rational ipo

market. >> it's interesting, so you have the news today is airbnb planning on going public next year that's interesting that's a company massive disruptive said they are doing a billion dollars sales in q 2 again we don't know the valuation when it comes. it seems like that one is a very rational process it's a business that is really disintermediating a lot of processes. >> you have lawsuits i like the idea of airbnb but think of about lawsuits with the cities and municipalities how their business model is going to the extend any further what's legal and not legal that's the only thing. >> the legal over overlange. >> one of the most important things he said was the horrible corporate governance investors aren't doing homework. some of the most sophisticated in the world i don't mean the retail investor retail investor is not getting to the deals on the ipo certainly didn't get to them in silicon value valley

the i think the clubbiness may seem like i'm harping op silicon valley a lot of in comes through unchecked. essentially built up by a community that invests in each other and suddenly you are left with companies that don't make money. >> the clubbiness but also the amount of free money shall slashing around that has an impact they have it to put the money somewhere and they let it slide. >> the another unintended consequence of central banks around the world softbank i don't know anybody at soviet bank they made the investment at $48 billion combination. it's a public that could go public between 14 and 17 blz somebody that's a bad trade in trader parcelens but. >> for supposedly inside tech money. >> hold on. >> where is the money supposed to go? where is it coming from hold on coming from cyberwelt pension pension funds big mutual funds any don't want to put it in the maga they are trag to diversify get

better return. taking the seven to teen years. >> central banks this is pushing -- >> all unintended. >> greenspan just blame greenspan. >> we don't have a long enough show but i will. >> and bernanke. >> and biggest villain of the 21st century. >> roll the tape. >> looks like a nice man. >> anyway. >> lovely. >> coming up altria falling as the battle against vaping heats up is the bet going up in smoke. plus the tesla model 3 a top safety rating. a greenlightorhe f t auto maker to rev up? much more "fast money" right after this

welcome back to "fast money. big buzz kill for altria as the food and drugs administration disclose to do open a criminal probe in the vaping supply chain earlier this summer. this is another person has died due to vaping related illness today. making eight total deaths so far. what does it mean for this stock? should the valuation be depressed because of the hangover basically from juul >> look they paid $12.8 billion for 35% of juul at the top of the market because they were running scared because they missed the trade the only silver lining here is actually people are smoking

again. and i think this is something that is a very short-term wind paul the one thing about altria and the reason i owned it a long time and still have a piece is it's a diversified company pieces of beer industry. they have investments in south africa and this is a company that's invested in consumer products. it's a consumer products company with a heavy tobacco bent. but this is terrible news. you can see it weighing on the valuation. investors have voted with their feet so far. if you removed e-cigarettes from the business in stock is worth the money right now. >> this sort of environment where dividends reign supreme, consumer products. >> it's been money. >> invincible. they shall be up for the year. >> except the headlines have been -- it's shooting first asking questions later when you're an $80 billion-dollar market cap company and invested 12.5 billion something maybe written to zero. >> that he way overpaided for cross on it's indictment of cronos it's a the valuing they paid for this

company. >> two years of decline though for a company where its products -- tim just said the juul investment was supposed to be the saving grace. it's not their saving grace. i think the money that they make outside of their core expertise is not enough to move the need zblool and the talks with phillip morris if our phillip morris i would say no thank you at this point. >> right. >> write that off. >> another thing i'll say is we are early in the vaping controversies but to think there is never vaichg again i think is also idiotic lack it's been -- clearly there are things to work out on the health side, fda wsh cdc you name it they're involved but it's not going away. >> it sounds like tleep chemicals you need to km out and say we are not using this in vape products. >> but are they replaceable. >> exactly if they are replaceable a lot of cannabis companies -- this is the biggest -- the second biggest revenue generator are the vaping cartridges in cannabis other than flower. it if they are not use going

there has to be a way around the three ingredients. >> look, what we have seen so far is the presence of heavy metals from some of the hardware we have seen pesticide and viet a minimum e acetate. they don't have to be in the vape and the oils. this is done properly in many corners. >> altria not the only buzz kill costco also cut after the downgrade from bernstein to underperform from market perform. they say retailer could be facing membership exhaustion and vulnerable in the economic downturn. >> that could be the case but you haven't seen in the data the memberships are a huge driver there is no significant drop off. maybe bernstein is ahead of the curve and they do thoughtful research but i push back say into earnings you buy on the dip. carter werth was on it earlier this was a stock held back in the spring when the mechanic went lower the knock actually is valuation. but i think you buy it on the

dip. >> up 42 this year not bad. >> i agree you still have to buy. i don't know about the membership exhaustion. when people have a membership they seem to reup and renew at alarmingly high rates. >> but does membership have to grow to sustain this. >> i don't think it does the stock is as you said up 41%. the technical level is 282 the 50-day moving average. if it breaks there maybe the story changed. >> it's the recurring nature of that membership model is why is has this premium valuation when you strip that out or see that decelerate that's where you have the problem where you value the retailer a whole host are cheape >> but the entire group has the same chart i mean, you tell me. >> which group, retail. >> big box retail. >> okay. >> target, wal-mart, the costco. test co. they look like this despite labor costs and ee norms costs >> up next, tesla shares revving up after the model 3 sedan got a

top safety rating is in the u-turn. >> kmienz consumers turning sour ale what itcould mean for the rally this year. we'll tell you much more on "fast money" right after this. it was sophie's big day. by the way, she's the next mozart. as usual we were behind schedule. but sophie's enthusiasm cannot be dampened. not even by a run-away donut. we powered through it in our toyota prius. because a star's got to shine, no matter what. it's unbelievable what you can do in the prius. toyota let's go places.

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welcome back to "fast money. tesla topping the tape today the stock getting a boost after the institute of highway safety gave the model 3 sedan the highest safety rating for crash worthness. the first tesla model to receive the high rating. it's been a rocky road for tesla with the stock down 26% this year could this mark the beginning of a turn around? steve grasso what do you think. >> no, i don't think so. >> okay. >> just think about how much a negative battery accident is going to -- or autonomous driving takes out. i don't think this one headline is a saving grace for tesla. >> isn't that sort of -- that's an event that may or may not happen. >> may or may not happen but there is a lot -- there is debt issues, cash burn issues there is a lot of other issues with tesla other than this. >> are you still short. >> still short i'll tell what you it's a great place for a short. we got august deliveries a couple weeks ago down 31% yeefr year over year.

the model 3 supposed to be a saving dwras only out about 15 minutes down 26% too bad. the cash cow, the s is down. is lost 1.1 billion in the first year nothing changed over the stock price. >> i'll play devil advocate with these guys here. china they might be very well positioned in china. they got the tax exemption there. the gigafactory up and running in shanghai. >> huge bull case without question and i give dan kudos at the top of the show down 180 he talked about people pushing on something that might not be there might get relief rally process but i find myself more in tim's camp. you can make the argument the $60 rally priced in. i'm inclined to sell and look for retest of lows than buy for the breakout. >> the cars were made to order top. don't have dealership. >> scrambles.

>> a few weeks ago they put 100 model threes available ready to buy appear appear brand-new. and anecdotally i think on average among the 100 i looked through the average price in the high 40s it goes back to this is not a mass market car. >> too many on the market. >> the average car is 35 they are not to order as they were when they were capacity constrained with the model s it seems like a glut of the cars. >> we get the weird quarter end mailings they were scrambling to make quarter end i don't think demand is good. >> let's move on trade tensions taking a bite out of apple in china. according to reports china consumer survey shows apple fell from number 11 on the top brand to number 24 well apple's fall from grace hasn't hit the stock yet up 40% for the year could it be a warning sign it's worth noting huawei came in at number 2.

>> shocker >> behind ali pay. moved up -- should we be worried? we certainly traded this stock in the past as if we should be worried. i don't think people are really paying a lot of attention to the china data i will say, apple lost their pole position in terms of chinese hardware market three years ago. it's been slipping but the question is to what extent they can build the services business on top of that i think that's really what people are not as concerned about china. >> yeah. >> i just say last q 4 this stock traded 142 after they release add horrible quarter in china specifically so all this data doesn't seem to be great. and some of the commentary about the product launches, the 11 pro, 11 pro max and chinese consumers skew to the cheaper one. which was not always the case. they were always going more expensive that may speak about china and consumer spending in general. but they don't give us units anymore, apple

this may something something about asps. >> and they are at disadvantage they don't have the fiechg and chinese competitors have 5g offering. >> i'd be worried about that more than sentiment because it's what people say and do are two things stock is up 40%. it was a positioning nightmare around the 142 now the bounce back 5g is concerning to me in china that's the real concern. >> the fed may have cut rates but one options trader may have bet close to a million money in a big bank look at the cramer cam jim talking with the expaid yao ceo. much more "fast money" still ahead. topping the tape is brought to you by old devin onfreight line

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click, call or visit a store today. welcome back to "fast money. fed day in the rear view mirror and investors calculate where to place bets after the 25 basis points cuts. in the options market one trader taking a $1 million chance on a big bank dan at the plasz plasma with the action dan. >> one of the investment banks morgan stanley call volume is five times that

of puts. a lot in one trade in particular shortly after the open when morgan stanley traded at 4.25 there was a buyer of 7,000 of the november 46 calls paying 1.02 for those breaking eastbound at 47.02 up almost 47% on november expiration we know we get bank earnings, a lot of potential catalyst between now and then annan and i just want to go to the charts because this one is interesting. this has been an underperformer morgan stanley we were just talking about jp morgan does this have the ability on a material breakout to krag the other u.s. banks the question is is it a break out or fakeout who knows we know what happened in jp morgan the last few times it it got up to the high teens, 10 let's go to morgan stanley this is the $46 level. that's the strike the trader chose to buy here. so obviously this was a big breakdown level last year. prior support, becomes resistance, kind of interesting

here looks like it's trying to bottom possibly but let's to go to the five year chart this is making what i think some technicians call a wedge. getting tighter and my man carter werth might say might be resolution itself soon one way or the other here is the thing when you see the outright call purchase like this out in time and out of the money i think this trader it looking to say injury it's going higher this is implied volatility the price of options relatively cheap here over the last year or so so what this is saying to me and see options priser are cheap enough nupt to lever up the existing long position or make a bet that the stock is going to go higher on an outright basis long premium directional bets are one way to do oh. >> mr. ms follow jpm. >> i think so. money money center banks are more than morgan standry if it's investable because jp morgan issivable i think others can follow. we have seen the lag effect i

like it. >> jp morgan trades two times tangible book. whereas morgan stanley is 1.1 times. jp morgan deserves the premium valuation. but not that much. it's not so much jp morgan comes down it's morgue loh morgan stanley goes up. >> i don't like morgan standry in the space the only wunl i like is jp morgan last time morgan stanley was here it caved at the level 15%. >> more for mopgss action tune in to the full show 5:30 tomorrow 5:30 eastern time. up the next, the final trades. >> announcer: "options action" sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade.

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final trades time tim zbhoo we were good enough to tell you the breakout in samsung what do you think the biggest awaiting e. m go e m for breakthrough breakout. >> steve. >> go with the cramer effect, the ceo of expaidy with jim after this show. up 20% year to date expaid yao pro tip go with the cramer effect just because you have the bounce in rates. i think you buy the tlt. >> guy. >> we were beating the merits of steel cut oatmeal. >> and why it's called steel cut

sfwhoo do we care. >> do you go out of the your way. >> it takes a long time to cook. >> i talked myself into international business machines during the show. >> that does it for us see you back here at 5:00. "mad money" with jim starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer a fairly sedate day. the dow dipped 52 points