brandon stump, ceo, thank you very much for joining us we appreciate it tune in tonight, also this weekend for the cnbc vaping documentary series coming up that does it for the exchange. power lunch is due up. it begins right now. mpl thank you very much. trade turmoil hitting wall street after the china delegation packs their bags and heads home without stopping in montana. apple ceo, tim cook, in the big apple as the iphone 11 hits the shelves. how long can the iphone euphoria last later a unicorn of a different stripe we have details on the $35 billion start uptaking silicon valley by storm.

p "power lunch" starts rite now. welcome to "power lunch. stocks taking a turn mid day after the trade headlines. the dow is down about 75 points here a quarter of a percent. the s&p down a quarter of a percent. nasdaq is being hit the hardest. momentum is under pressure check out shares of roku gett tg slammed after one analyst says stocks should be cut in half it's on track for its worst week ever let's have more on the trade developments weighing on the market now we have the very latest. >> when trade talks wrap today, we were expecting a subset of that chinese delegation to head to the midwest to american farm country to visit with farmers face-to-face to talk about potential purchases down the

road and to express their good will for maintaining relationship as of today those visits are called off the chinese embassy confirming that the vice minister of agriculture will be heading back to china instead of making that trip the bem bembassy said there was change in schedule we know earlier this week they were not working on these visits they were not the ones setting them up as is traditional when you have a delegation of that level coming to the yiunited states yesterday secretary sonny perdue knew they were coming. >> we're always hopeful it's more than just purchases here. there are structural reforms the chinese know that we have to have >> president trump today said he

did not want a partial deal. it was not enough answering questions from eamon he doesn't think he needs it back to you. >> we lost about 20 point ons the s&p on the news that china was cutting that trip short. once again highlighting that trade talks are the marginal mover of the market this year. global industrial names, caterpillar, deere, united technology moved low it's already a little bit weaker earlier on they moved even lower today.

it's all fall p back fen back fo the week the s&p 500 had a couple lows. we'll see big volumes in several names that are seeing reductions in their shares. netflix down on comments from the ceo and just in general concern over competition >> thanks. be prepared to have your neck hurt when you go wac and forth on these issues. explaining their decisions today and the remarks underscored the

differences at the central bank. recession risk is rising manufacturing is probably already in recession inflation rate is running too low and it's best to act aggressively when you only have a few quart e points to give it's unusual for fed to ease when the economy is this good. that is running about 2% it's moderate including the trade risk he said it's not really hurt the economy that much. inflation is near the target and rising the last several months he's most concerned about the potential costs of these low rates. he said low rates can encourage excessive risk taking and a reach for yield. one example, the real estate model known as co-working space which is used by re-work they did not name the company. talked about the concept

here is the problems he has. co-worker model involves short term leases to less mature firms that can go out of business pretty quickly when you have a recession. the big concern not just the model it it could make the downturn worse. >> how much in terms of loans is outstanding? could this really be a source of risk or is he saying that the reality downturn itself could be worse? >> i don't believe that the commercial real estate market it has ever caused a downturn s >> i don't think it's big

enough >> we did have a commercial real estate recession in 1990 and '91. it was tightening and they were properties in the commercial sector you think of others who bought all these excessively large properties >> i did stories on buildings in sarasota and they went into business because of the tax cut. >> all those banks down in dallas >> they were levered to oil. >> i don't know -- >> it would not pose risk.

>> how much do we know are owned by wework as opposed to we sublease >> overall scheme of things like commercial real estate perspective it's probably around in there i think they cut into the market enough is. >> you're still here but you're kind of done, okay >> am i getting dismissed? >> you're staying. back ends nicely >> now we're all at the table. >> here comes the fed.

here comes jay powell saying nothing but saying it eloquently you think interest rates are going to go down again because the fed takes them there or the market takes them there? >> he didn't say much not because he became a better speaker than on july 21st. it's kind of hard to believe he's changed what has changed is he had so much dissent he had to make a statement which was right in the middle of the road which meant nothing and he was not able to -- >> he doesn't know which way the economy may go and he doesn't know which way the fed, his fellow members may go. >> i think the first one has been clear for a clwhile that te

do not know which way the economy is going if you had any idea where the economy was going, you wouldn't have made that statement they are based on your expectation for real growth and what you think is going to happen to inflation. we just saw how vulnerable we are on the trade side just in the last several minutes i think it's going to be more happening before the 2020 election i'm looking for recession by about mid-2020 1% seems optimistically high level for the ten year yield

i dope want it to go down below that >> the consumer turns between now and 2020 they would have to >> you're absolutely right if you look at the 2001 recession and the 2007, 2009 recession, in both cases the consumer sentiment started dropping several months before consumers spending did only after that does the consumer spending start to drop. i think this time will be no different. >> i'm still in the growth recession camp that we don't hit 2% overall on average for the next year, year and a half, at least. i think there's enough uncertainty around the election that will hold things back as well it will affect the financial markets and the real economy

this trade thing is still looming large. if i continues on, it's deeper the presidents, the people yesterday were in the 50 to 100% tariffs, if they were to do something that's much of an outl outlier you have to cause to worry about a global recession >> i don't want to ascribe the following comment to any one individual because i don't remember exactly who said it but one of the principals there said we will know a lot more about where trade is going to go when the principals meet in october, if indeed they meet. >> today's not a good sign >> today's not a good sign but there's interim discussion between now and the principals are supposed to meet in early october. whatever the signals are then

maybe a real telltale. i do believe that. >> i don't buy that at all last december 1st you don't have any bigger principals than donald trump and xijing they are in agreement no more trade war. that was last december >> let me be clear i think whatever comes out of those october meetings will affect the market very, very -- i don't know whether it will eventuate in a deal that brings us to trade truths but if the news out of that meeting is favorable, the markets will be stable and may be good if the news is not favorable, i think it will be very bad. >> it will be just in time for third quarter earning season for companies to start saying

the risks are not known and we have to build in all this stuff for the possible, longing of trade tensions >> you need a frame work for a comprehensive agreement not just cosmetic i can't be more energy product purchases. it would have to be something deeper than that >> why not >> trade is not the problem. solving the trade problem does not require anything substantive to come from the agreement the president can call it a victory and he'll be happy we don't have to solve the trade problem. >> i understand. >> if from the october agreement looks like some soform of an agreement, he's right. they have done many, many times in the last 18 months. the yields rises as well then you get it saying this is not acceptable and the chinese

are not complying with what they said they were going to do you're going to see quite a few more waves of that >> don't doubt it at all i think it's a big tail wagging this dog >> i would say trade is very important. the fed cannot offset it >> i look like the waiter. >> i want a black and white. >> how's your neighborhood >> it's very important >> continue from tuesday onwards and it will go on now until

october 10th >> they need to figure that out. >> seems they have no idea what cost it and it's not a cash crunch >> i'm going to write about it >> thank you >> thank you all here's what's coming up on power lunch with what we've got left in the next eight minutes >> closing bell's up next. dpl t >> the closing bell is up next we'll be right back. they cancelled a visit to montana. we'll talk more about it

mplgt trade officials are cutting their trip to the u.s. short after wrapping up trade talks in washington cancelling a planned visit to meet u.s. farmers in montana and nebraska. joining us now on the cnbc news line is the director of farm bureau thanks for your time we want to know what the deal was here who contacted you? how planned was the visit and when exactly was it cancelled? >> they said they were going to be in the area next week, tuesday and wednesday.

they like to see some montana agriculture and i responded and we have seen some of our folks who said we would be happy to help and ask for more information. the next correspondents we had was this morning when they responded and said they were cutting their trip short and returning to china they will not be visiting in montana after all. >> did you get a reason as to why they were cancelling >> no, no explanation. i really have no insight there >> i don't mean to put words into your mouth, nicole, but it sounds like this visit, the first call you got was yesterday morning on thursday. it sounds like this was a few bucks shy of being in the whole and a lot down visit by a delegation

am i wrong about that? >> it was all very sudden. we do have trade groups come through montana occasionally from all over the country and being major agricultural state it's not all that surprising but you're right, it was going to be details were not worked out. it was a short note that ended up simply being tentative when we found out and being cancelled before any real plans were made. >> the chinese delegation cancelled the trip this morning and i'm asking you that because president trump later on had a press conference saying we don't need a deal for the elections and it won't be enough for chinese. it's just to by more agricultural products. just trying to get a sense o of the timing here.

>> i don't have any insight into that as far as how the those line up. i've been in between meetings and answering a lot of phone calls. i can tell you it was first thing this morning mountain time when we did take notice they were no longer coming. >> i have to say having been in montana last month, the chinese are really missing out because it's a beautiful, beautiful place. >> that's right. we're very proud of our beautiful state. >> thank you >> thank you >> nicole rolf of the montana farm bureau, director of national affairs there after the break we're diving into emerging technology that's exciting some and scaring many others i'll let melissa explain

welcome back to power lunch. this is a deep fake. >> we'll talk to the top deep fake artist who made that video when power lunch returns as a principal i can tell you this. when one student gets left behind, we all get left behind. this is a problem that affects each and every one of us. together with ibm, we created a whole new kind of school called p-tech. within six years, students can graduate with a high school diploma, a college degree,

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welcome back the streaming wars may have taken a new victim roku getting rocked today after research slapped it with a sell rating let's bring in your trading nation team. craig, let me start with you we have a stock that's down 20% today, down 40% off its high but still more than tripled on a year today basis how can you deciphsief ecipher d >> you can see they violated th up trend line off the april lows you have some support that comes in at 113 but your best support

comes in back down at the moving average. you can see the stock trade back down to 81, maybe even $75 for me the risk ward isn't favorable even though the stock isn't up i still think you have about 30% down side and maybe relief rally. i'll be selling into this move >> all right obviously a real volatile situation with the stock >> its services in this world where everybody is trying to get at the internet tv bananza what do you think. >> we're fans of roku. the research is fascinating. i don't disagree with their fundamental taste. the stock got way overheated but their rationale regarding losing

market share, i don't agree with the cable companies will offer their own device for free in order to compete i'm a roku user. i own six of them in our home and office i've not had cable for years i would not switch to a cable device i'm fan at roku trading at 14 to 15 times if it gets there, i'm a buyer. >> all right some are saying the overall market of the big enough and even mark share losses can be manageable we'll see how it goes. thank you very much. more trading nation head to our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation. back over to you thank you very much. ahead, imagine a world where anyone can become another person the rise of deep fake technology could make that a reality. we'll sit down with the pioneering deep fake artist to

discuss, next. unicorns with stripes. the payment start up that provides the tech used by this year's ipos. why mkm says to buy these two beer stocks. another round for everybody when power lunch returns. johnson & johnson is a baby company.

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welcome back here is your cnbc news update. tropical sto tropical depression imelda continues to dump rain on texas. a high school gym has been turned into a temporary home for flood victims in beaumont,

texas. it's unclear what the condition of their homes will be when they return the wet weather is kexpected to continue into the weekend. global walk outs are happening over climate change led by the passion of 16-year-old swedish climate activist greta thunberg. here is what she had to say. >> i don't know if this week will result in anything. we must hope but we must also be prepared for that nothing comes out of it. we need to continue because giving up cannot be an option. >> the famous copper rooster that once stood on notre dame, will -- specialists are still working to stabilize the cathedral's structure.

you're up to date. that's the news update this hour back to you. thank you very much. the dow jones industrials are about 62 points at 27,000. nasdaq down about two-thirds of a percent at 81.33 off the lows of the day. the markets climb back a bit the trip was only planned yesterday and the specific details were not really hammered out. maybe this is the market making much ado about something a little less than that. we shall see the oil market closing for the day. we have the news >> if you were looking at this chart earlier you would have seen a lot of green.

now you're seeing red. oil prices closing at the lows of the session for what's been a volatile week in the emergency market it's the best week since june. the best week since january. despite prices retreating after monday's huge rally following the attack on saudi oil facilities the question becomes how do producers in the united states and around the world respond and how fast can they restore output despite the rallies, with, ti and brent are both still trading in bare market territory back to you. this video on screen may look like me but it's not me not totally, at least. similar videos of prominent figures like elizabeth warren, donald trump have gone viral these are called deep fakes. emerging ai power technology that allows anyone with a laptop to alter or manipulate a person's image as the tool evolves, so do the risks.

>> this fake video mor ching into tom use went viral last month showing how sophisticated and far reaching deep fake content has become the technologies also accessible and cheap. the chinese face swapping app has become that country's top smart phone app but it's also brought privacy issues to the forefront. >> you the have misinformation >> one of those is synthe sisiz. >> reporter: google is investing in ways to address synthetic media. the god guod guys are out done this arms race

>> we're playing catch up. here is the end game people like me will lose >> our next guest is one of the world's top deep fake artists. he's working with professor to monitor the spread of deep fakes. you can see something is voice even if you put a woman's voice, like you did that was your voice on my image. that was an obvious one but for elizabeth warren, the trump, you could sort of tell how far off are we until deep fakes really become completely convincing >> if you put sufficient efforts nowadays, you can get to something that's perfectly real. the real question is how can we

get perfectly real deep fakes accessible to people i think we're probably half a year to year from there. >> social need ya efforts to try to detect deep fakes who's in the lead at this point? >> well, at this point i would say it's as you said before it's still very easy. you can tell from the naked eye, most of the deep fakes but there's also examples that are really, really convincing. the only thing i can say is that i totally agree with the professor that soon it's going to get to the point where there's no way that we can actually detect them anymore we have to look at other types of solutions >> i think i heard you say how do we get the deep fakes acce accessible to people did i hear you correctly in. >> that's absolutely correct >> that would suggest that you

think that's a good thing. i see in the deep fakes a lot of danger explain to me why getting deep fakes accessible to people is a good thing and give me some uses or context in which deep fakes would be a good thing. >> right i didn't say getting deep fakes to people would be the right thing to do. the technology -- the underlying technology for deepfakes have a lot of important usage that have positive president clintapplicas most importantly in the e-commerce for fashion also if you want to create technologies that allows people to communicate immersively then the only way to have avatars of yourself very good examples are recent developments from facebook reality labs where they're showing how you're using avatars to talk the each other

it's using very similar deep learning type of methods >> at the same time just to build off of tyler's question, you got to think to yourself, on the one hand we can put a deceased paul walker into a movie, which you worked on that may seem like something that's fun and good for the public and on the other hand we can spread tampered video of the president of the yiunited state saying x, y and z which could harm the markets or harm foreign affairs. i'm wondering how you balance that >> i think that's a really good question a lot of people have this confusion about having these tools that can allow anyone to manipulate videos is a bad thing. the real question is how can we detect videos where the

intention is something that used to deceive people or something that has a harmful consequence the intention is the thing that we should be looking at, not necessarily something has been manipulated. there's a lot of entertain m applications or things that are simply just for comedy or satire >> you're working on furthering this technology so deep fakes get better and better. you're arming the bad guys as well as the good guys, right >> well, i think on the other hand if you wanted to be able to detect deepfakes, you have to also see what the limits are if you need to build ai frame works that are capable of detecting things that are extremely real, those have to be changed using these types of technologies in some ways it's impossible to detect those if you don't know how they work. this is exactly the type of

collaboration that we have where we are internally playing this cat and mouse game in order to improve the detection of deep fakes. >> i think that's a very interesting point that to detect them and disarm the deepfakes you have to know how they're made you have to understand what goes into them. you said earlier that one of the possible positive outcomes would be conversations among avatars why do we need avatars to talk to each other or am i just not getting? i'm sorry. >> well there's a lot of studies where basically shows that video conference is ineffective. people have to interact face-to-face and in the world we're living now, people can't

teleport themselves easily from one place to another if you want to enable this remote conversation between people and put them inside the same space, that's the whole idea if we can create a virtual environment where people can talk immersively and feel like they are in same space >> you're the ceo of pen screen for some of these good applications but when you're thinking about the worst case scenario in terms of how this can be hijacked, what crosses your mind >> i don't think it will get to that point there's many other factors that lead to the misuse of these type of video manipulation technologies we're not putting our source codes out there that allow people, arming people. it's purely to create 3-d

avatars. the other hand one thing that you're saying makes sense is people see certain things are possible it wouldn't take long for other people to try to come up with their own technology you have a deepfake technology where you have such convincing results by uploading a single image. >> fascinating conversation. i want to have you back. that was really cool >> thank you >> thank you so much >> that is really something. he's an interesting guy. i'm not sure i understand at all. in fact i know i don't understand it all. the story of a tech unicorn. are they real or not >> unicorns? >> yeah. they don't exist many of the other tech

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we have the latest news on striped. >> one of the biggest unicorns out there now. it's a payments processor for some of the best known unicorns and one of the most buzzed about companies here in silicon valley not well known outside the bay area it just raised $250 million valuing it at $35 billion in the private market that's other than high profile unicorns like air b and b and that's more than well known public payments processor square

valued at just $25 billion many of the most prestigious firms have valued in well long established players like amazon and google ma see many see it as a play. for the next phase of its life stripe will be taking more risk. they will use its capital to expand to markets and extrend loans through stripe capital it's a reminder its latest funding round at a time we're talking about some of the biggest private companies taking valuation haircuts not all unicorns are created equal and some like stripe are growing in the private market. back to you. >> thank you mpl

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time for a liquid lunch. shares of molsen coors higher today after a buy rating of that stock. mkm points to coors light's sales growth following its new made to chill ad campaign marketing the beer for relaxation saying this marks a turning point for the brewer for more, we're joined by bill kirk bill also initiated constellation brands today welcome. is a good ad campaign enough to turn around the flagging fortunes of a brewer >> so, in the beer world, inflections are really rare. these are big brands coors bright is 25% of most in the u.s. or so and so when you get something that distributors

are buying into, it can move the needle and moving the needing here fills tanks and tanks are allow for knew to come over some of that expense and when you get an opportunity having quick pno leverage that people aren't expecting. >> tell me about molson coors. i remember this ad a a good ad. any rate tell us about the jerajectory oe sales over recent years. >> as a category, it's been a coors light kind of problem. scoring really well with consumers. the engagements are really high and so what that does, you get a small rebound in coors

some is showing less loss and some is showing positive dollar sales. >> these are in spite of the growing popularity of spike seltzer? >> they are. that's gettinging a lot of the attention. you look at the valuation of some of the names that have it in their portfolio there's a a huge disconnect here which now has a beer portfolio with two light beers contributing positively. >> talk about your upgrade today. if you look at media special, you'd be surprised at how big of a brand it is. chicago, new york, denver and it

surprises a lot of people and still doesn't have the packaging portfolio all the way. they're launching far more problems and that gives them new occasions as they've become one of the biggest brands in the u.s. as it continues with that you get a lot of strong cash flow generation >> interesting the top three brand. thank you. we appreciate it >> fantastic >> check please is next. you should be mad that this is your daily commute. you should be mad at people who forget they're in public. and you should be mad at simple things that are unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you're trading with e*trade, which isn't complicated. their app makes trading quick and simple so you can strike when the time is right. don't get mad, get e*trade and start trading today.

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you saw a little sell off when got the -- montana farm bureau said the chinese delegation canceled their trip we spoke to the montana farm bureau director of national affairs. didn't sound -- >> we began the hour talking about how this cancellation of a visit sh bdidn't sound like it was much of a visit to begin with if the call had come to her office just yesterday saying hey, we're going be in boseman, we'd love to see some farms. >> exactly didn't sound like there was an eye ten yar. this shows you how fragile the market is when it comes to any sort of head lib on trade. >> we talked about that in our segment.

the conversation was watch what happens when the principles meet in october if the headlines are bad, look out below. >> have a good weekend >> you, too. it was a long week. >> closing bell right now. i'm here at the fedex post because it's the worst per fofom performer of the week. it has been a wild week for the market a fed decision and a constant drip of headlines between the u.s. and china over that trade war, but just 59 minutes left to go until this week is in the books. >> let's look at driving the action on this friday. china's trade delegation to the u.s. does cut its trip short fed centers painting some different pictures of the state of the u.s. econom