points after being down as many as 33537 similar move for the s&p finishing up 0.8%. see what tomorrow brings. >> that does it for the "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. life from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city times square this is "fast money. i'm melissa loop trade remembers carter werth karen finerman brian kelly and tim seymour. the man called the melt dwun is back the chart master where he sees it headed from here. plus vold mork sent tumbling and why investors in consequence speculation feeling the hang overnothing to do with the booze. beginning with the mother of all countdown to clocks. not the countdown for fed or trade talks. the countdown to jobs, the monthly payroll numbers hits in just over 15 hours from now. given the wild market swings we

have seen this week, will tomorrow's report be a make or break moment for the rest of the year tim. >> >> well the good news, mel, for those thinking that the data in the ism we built this up up as make or breb. ism services and answering the question about payroll but the number was seemingly critical and it wasn't a good number. we print add poor ism and came intwo points cheaper than we expected growth at 52 handle. this is something the markets didn't expect and the s&p sold off accordingly. and then very resilient got to a place people made assessments different reasons why we rallied. but the payroll number tomorrow because of the weakness in the adp and because of the building measurement up and all we do is talk about the consumer, let's look at the wage gains, hours worked those are the biggest parts. obviously private payroll are things to wind chill there could be skew from census workers and what whatnot that's what people are trying to determine right now. and yes, very, very important. but you have to be encouraged by

how the market dealt with a very poor ism on what was already a bad week of u.s. data. >> what do you make of it. >> i mean it was a horrible number today what was interesting to me today is that what everybody has been worried about all year is the manufacturing slowdown, got a leak into the services seccer? that is showing yes. the answer is yes to that. with the report tomorrow we've got the unemployment report. does that mean we start to see layoffs perhaps or weakness in the job market i actually think you could see another scenario like today. where the market goes into the day relatively flat. it sells off then you get to a certain point. we're all of a sudden maybe people see value for various reasons. they buy the market again. but i do think tomorrow's job report is going to set the tone for the rest of the year because it's setting the tone about what the fed is going to do and how players are going to be positioned relative to what bond yields are doing. >> i would rather see the economy fundamentally stronger, right. even if that.

>> good news is good news. >> even for me even if that means a hotter payroll number which the market would react as okay the fed can step back a little we're not going to have for sure two or three cuts. i'd rather have that ultimately what is the point of a fed cut? to stoke the economy i'd rather can cut to the chase and have the economy do better that might lead to a bad tape. i don't know so be it if it does. gru but it doesn't make sense to me why that would be better news to have a weaker number. >> probably the biggest data point is the 2-year. we made a new shocking low what we've lyn also seen in the total unwind of this embracing of the value trade, so that all of the movement in energy, up off the lows and financials and industrials all gone ka put. and now losing tech names as well. >> i mean, the thing here is that the joer oem poum has made clear the cut so far are insurance cuts so if the payroll numbers comes

in weak tomorrow, then what happened -- the question is what happened to that insurance and how many more bullets does the fed have at this point. >> smurns implied you're worried about the future. >> right. >> the data we've seen is showing it's happening now i mean, you have consumer confidence rolling over. that's a big number. ism services rolling over. capital goods orders today, that's a big number. that was negative. so this is happening and these are numbers from last month, remember. these are numbers that already occurred the slowdown is going on i actually think the fed is very far behind the curve, that the insurance cut was they're going to have to cut more faster. >> they may be, brian. but do you think the fed even matters anymore. >> no, no. >> i think the fed matters only if they -- the irony i don't think they did can do anything with monetary policy at this point except for the fact they can bother the market by not bringing enough monetary policy karen's dead right

good news is good news we want good news bad news is not gad news right now and carter is right. look at the 2-year we've had people par oid aid on the show in the last two weeks saying the low in yields is in houms have we heard that 2-year sets a new low and the curve is steeper 14, 15 bps on 2s 10s opinion nothing to do cart wheels over when the curve. >> there is not a single ceo or company out there heying, you know what, if interest rates with were 25 basis points lower i'd open a new factory, hire 20,000 more workers nobody has a problem with interest rates. i don't think the fed is going to have any impact they could cut rates to zero it's not changing the economic situation. >> i think -- it was interesting with the eu news today, the market didn't like that at the open you i think we were so oversold from the last few days even with some bad news it would do for a

bounce the vix -- we'll get to that later a little further but got pretty high. >> the sectors did bounce did it make a convincing rally. >> all the ipos go higher, you know. >> if you plunge often you get a countertrend move. but the issue is which is the primary data point and which is the secondary. the dropping is the primary data point backup theover is the secondary data point. >> all that means is you're not convinced by the small bounce in the session today. >> no. >> again, carter -- carter is right to be pessimistic in seeing a lot of charts breaking down i can look at the semis and say think about the cyclicality we don't see on the tape in terms of data. and this is performing remarkably well. i think of everything thrown at semi conductors. think of everything we hurt in terms of enterprise and ceos who don't want to aspen on business. obviously the headlines on china. i look at that and smh close in somewhere around 118, 119.

rae we're only a couple points off the all-time highs and yet terrible data in the last two weeks. >> s&p own down. >> should make you more confident i guess. >> or make you wonder, hey, if that's we're still so rich what is the downside? >> you seem extra bearish, becerra suit. >> good to see you in the bear suit. >> the services number was the latest -- was that the straw here. >> honestly it was consumer confidence last week that was the one that tipped me over because that's the leading indicator. and also when i saw europe rolling over, i think europe has a very, very big problem they are further down the path of monetary policy not working we have a lot of things coming up with brexit potentially coming up. that could be a wild card out there. to me, i just don't see a lot of reason to be crazy long this market i don't think -- i'm with in contractor's camp this is a bounce we see this end up going lower from here. >> all right well the next guest

says there is a magic number to watch in the jobs report let's bring in mark ka bana at bank of america. welcome back to the show. >> thank you. >> what is the number? and we should preface this with tomorrow's jobs number is a little tricky because of temporary census hiring. >> that's correct. >> it won't be a clear number here. >> i think you want to look at the private payroll growth which we think will be reactively robust around 125,000, close to where consensus is right now but i think right now the market is very fragile. very worried about a potential slowdown that is expanding beyond surveys into the jobs market you've not seen claims back up yet. but i do worry what the bond market is telling you if you see a number let's say below 100,000 or something like that that that will be a real sign of concern that this slowdown could be a bit more broad based than we had perhaps initially expected now, slrly, if you see a number -- let's call it 175,000 or higher. that would provide a lot of houff to the mechanic. what the market wants right now

is good news about the economy because it's had a bad string of data consumer confidence last week and services and non-manufacturing own components this week a bit troubling. round the bond market is sending bad signs. it's expecting the fed to move beyond in sort of insurance cut or mid-cycle adjustment the fed has been into into something more like a recession fire fight. >> right. >> you almost expect with full prices prooissing a cut in october from the fed and another cut from december from the fed about 230 basis points from each and then another couple of cuts next year from the fed the market is becoming a bit more pessimistic and telling you that there is god reason to worry about how durable economic growth will be in the future >> today's session was really interesting to watch in that equities markets bounced and the rates markets rolled over and went to new lows and so i wonder how vulnerable you think rates are going into tomorrow's print, and what happens if we get a negative

number >> there is i think a lot of bad news already praised and i think that's probably how the market is leaning right now in erms it of positioning. >> the bound market. >> the downward yield direction. a lot of bad news already in there. therefore you might see a bit of a bigger bounce higher if you get a positive number. again i think if you see a number around 100,000 -- there is no magic number here. i do worry though a number below 100,000 is clearly below the break even rate at which the jobs market is expanding and will tell that you there is real risk the unemployment rates rise for bad reasons. if you see that print i do worry the market will be believes believing that there are higher risks of a recession in the near term it's not the baseline. but if you see the jobs market and consumer go, we know the consumer mab keeping the economy resilient right now. if those factors fade i think you need to worry about the permanent slowdown in the u.s. >> let me ask you, gm, 48,000

workers currently still employed,right, although i think they are getting $250 a we can when does that bleed through how long does that last before maybe the suppliers or who ever feeds into gm starts to have an effect >> yeah, there could be some disforcing toerpgss due to the gm strike right now. how long does it take to necessarily bleed through? it's not a the positive for the economy right now. but what i would say is that it is encouraging you've not yet seen initial jobless claims really rise materially we had the numbers this morning. they were still relatively resilient higher than the market anticipated. but not showing material concerns about the labor market just yet the strikes won't help provide a real clear picture on how the economy is evolving. but i do think if you see a significant downside risk that's all -- or miss that's all you need to know. >> mark, we've had people come through and talk about the bond market and credit spread, the difference between the yield on

high-yield and treasurys we haven't seen a meaningful widening out although the last two days there was a widening are there cracks in high yields we shall be concerned about. >> it's been remarkably resilient. a few reasons for that number one the equity market held in well number two, there is spillover from investors abroad into the u.s. market. there is a global chase for yield and foreign investors can get a nice return on investing in higher yielding u.s. corporate debt at the moment and so those are very, very positive technicals. it helps that there is the expectation the fed is growing the balance sheet in the the relatively near future to deal with the repoe market disruptions we have seen not not quantitative easing but short-term technical factor causing interest rates to spike. that's a technical for the high-yield mechanic. those are favorable at the moment now if the u.s. economy begins broader signs of slowdown if the consumer cracks i would think

you could see more spread widening in the areas. >> will we see yields go lower, yields hit new lows? and do you think the at the same time the spread could actually widen? >> it's certainly possible we think that rates will be going lower just given economic fundamentals, the perception that consumer confidence is deteriorating. that percolating through the economy ant fed which are stop slow-walking the eases again moving out of the insurance cut area to being more responsive to broader signs of slowdown in the economy. we think all that have puts downward pressure on the base borrowing and the our forecast is for the 10-year to hit 1.25 new lows in the base borrowing rate not particularly optimistic we don't believe you've seen the lows this far. we think there is downside to yields there and it depends on how responsive the fed is, how they boost risk sentiment and the equity market holds up again the positive technicals in the credit markets but if the economy slows i think you'll see

spreads widen because the economy should trump some of the technical factors. >> i mean the interesting on the 10-year, it never made the he lo whereas the 30 opinion year did. you're in the camp it does and does it substantially. >> again we think there is downside risks and the global back drop with negative rates around the world, you've got monetary policy at the lows in many other developed markets we think that's another technical putting downward pressure on long end rates. >> mark great to to see you baepg of america mailer lynch. 1, 2, 5 on the 10-year. >> great stuff by mark spitting image of dustin petitioned driedia for the all-time great 2nd basement sore the sox what does that mean for a lot of the trades call them defensive trades it certainly does a lot for multiples does a lot for state your names, i woulds are argue it's a deflation trade anything we've seen in terms of asset prices and people that

have been pushing -- trying to push into either commodity related plays or things about asset not good news. and in fact those are trades part of the big massive rotation and could be smacking a lot of people in the face because that's going straight down. >> we see 19.25 on the 10-year whab do markets do. >> the equity markets are lower if you see 1.25. i don't think the fed cutting rates and low rates are going to change the economic outlook whatsoever i do think -- i think there is good odds that happens if you look at what's happened in europe the yields are zero using. japan as the historical benchmark they don't come off zero for a long period of time you're getting the flow into u.s. fixed income, into rates, but that is not going to have impact on the economy what so far. >> all right coming up we watch shares of costco it's down 1% in the after hours session. those earnings just out after the bell we'll break down the quarter and later the man calling the october meltdown is back the chart master will tell us

where he sees stocks heading next the live from times square in chor"ft ne rht mu me asmoy"ig after this

welcome back to "fast

money. earning alert on costco. the retailer on the move in the after hours session. down less than a percent >> that call ongoing beginning about 19 minutes ago just now, before we got to the hit they were talking about tariffs. started talking about how they've been active in managing and mitigating the impact of the tariffs and working with suppliers to do so we will let you know what more is he they say on that front they have gone through the income statement on the other numbers from the quarter costco had a slight miss on top line reporting $47.5 billion in the fourth quarter about 70 million shy of wall street estimates on the bottom line they did beat with 2.69 per nar op adjusted basis. more than 15 cents per share than analysts expect then eye the call costco said increased number of members to 53.9 million household up slightly year over year during the quarter they said they had ten net new new openings

and then the first warehouse hoping in mcthat got headlines during the quarter melissa. >> leslie, thank you leslie picker. you know, we are noting that the stock is down about a percent in the after hours session up a percent today and up 42 percent your the year. >> a beast. >> nice beat but when you trade at this multiple you got to just keeping jumping over the bar higher and higher which they've been doing for years. but i mean, this is a great company. when you think about companies that are recession proof, none of them are recession proof. but here is a good place to go to hide. >> to your point, the multiple at its peak in '99 32 times here at 35 times now the interest rate environment different but at some point it's crowded. i would say that's the circumstance here if you think where this has come from the december low up 6 oh, 65%. interestingly, the analyst community, the price target from 30 analysts that cover it basically where right where fundamentally know one likes in terms of upside technically a hill stretched. >> the jump higher was ob on the

back of the shanghai opening thp that's the magic. >> sthang high is one is thing better margins from gas lower margin and also the membership up 5 percent is what peemt people wanted i'm with carter on this i said this yesterday, all the by box retailers i think are trading at multiples that are not only because they've been defensive. --en a it's not doctor dsh execution at target has been kbref 37 wal-mart trying to convince you they can speedy trial with azmodan online. but if the consumer weakens that's the consumer losing the jobs and i just think that -- at this cycle after a stock almost ip it tripled in 47 and a half years not that that matters let's talk about the montana multiple now i don't need to own it. >> more insulated or less than wal-mart or target >> probably -- probably less insulated i would say. i think the wal-mart customer is going there for that repeat type of buying where costco, how many tubs of peanut butter do you need. >> depends on who you are. >> if you are in it, though.

if you are in it now how do you trade it 282 was resistance, the breakout from july, became support. if we break the low 282 then it's time to pull the rip cord. >> once upon a time they say the costco customer was like the nordstrom customer. >> really. >> how so. >> in terms of the graphic. >> was that a target. >> i don't know about target but i know for costco twaps. i don't know if you makes you think it's more insulated from economic woes or less. >> seems to be insulated from everything bad >> at this point. >> yeah. >> if i'm going to costco i'm going to buy 1,500 sport coat at nordstrom what do you -- doesn't make zbleens you get that at costco. >> you can read more about the costco quarter on the website. cnbc.com live from the market site in new york here is else is coming up on the show the man who called the

week's selloff is back the chart master tells us where the market is headed next. and later, a tale of two fang stocks it was the best of times and it was the worst of times. for these two names. we'll tell what you the dickens is going on when "fast money" returns.

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how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. welcome back to "fast money. another day of whiplash on wall street the markets kicking off with a huge selloff before all of a sudden the dow staged the biggest come waak since early august while everybody was scratching heads and wondering what trying reported the turn around b.k. has an idea what sparked the move b.k. >> it's interesting if you

looked at what happened exactly when the market turned around, the dividend yield on the s&p 500 hit 2% the 10-year yield hit 1.56%. a difference of 0.44%. since the end of jewel every time the differential has gotten above 40 bps, the market durand turned around. what tells knee is it has to be the big player moved the market coming in somehow they either see value at the level maybe it's something to do with the acquaint quake we saw where people rotate out of momentum and maybe now into dividend playing stocks but that's the trigger there and it happened almost to the minute, as soon as 2% hit dividend yield on the s&p hitd, boom the market fripd around. >> it's interesting because near 60 near wide on no question. s in a time people are paying togs it. think about the rotation in august and president violence of some of it it almost makes no

sense, right it's notthat something fundamentally changed that much. we know bonds had a big almost three standard deechgs rally yields lower in august so you saw the rotation but it speaks to the fact that there are algos appear machines at work tracking this stuff. >> i really hate this kind of market actually. i mean, i believe that could be the trying are why not? it's reasonable. i just -- we're just floating around hesitating waiting until we get big trade new >> right. >> or what i really want to see is earnings. that's the most important thing to me. we're in a bit of a vacuum of information. >> are you excited for earnings. >> am i excited? i'm nervous and anxious. anxious. but, you know, we'll got not only what happened in the quarter but the outlook and that's important to me to really hear our ceos are they pulling back as much as we fear? what are they doing about tariffs? how do they deal with it. >> you mentioned trade one of the biggest bumps the market received in any given day over the past many, many months

is tweet from the president about the trade going well we're not hearing those right now. if we were to hear that would the market respond the same way it has every knee jerk time or is the market saying i don't think so. >> i think less every time i feel crying wonderful. >> law the diminishing tweets. >> kpllkt. >> maybe to the point of no response or almost op zbliet the opposite the flip speaking of opposite the flip side of the algo bounce is when if narrows to a an is sternt is that the time to zbleel we only have one data point but when if narrowed to zero that was the top. look at the orange lines going down right in the middle of september when it was zero, the dividend yield on the s&p 500 and the 10-year yield were exactly equal. that was the top in the market >> huh. >> you can look at this and look at the differentials as a guide for how you position the portfolio. >> interesting if you kwaut the show monday and of course you did, you might remember that carter was sounding the alarm

that an october selloff could be on the way here is what he saw in the charts >> in in scenario, we are down hard here in october we're backing and filling a bit in november and then we plunge again as low as 2,400 and have a few weeks of strength ending at 2650 keep in mind to get down to 2,400 that's a 19% selloff. >> despite the comeback stocks are down big this month. where are we headed next carter? head over to the plasma broke it down. >> let's do guessing and analyzeding see what we can come one obviously slippery people i think have been hurt. and then perhaps a littleover sold and a bit of bounce but to what what end. process chart of the s&p no judgments annotations by me. let's put in lines one thing to look at three distinct selloffs, one, two, three. what percentages are they? the first one down 7.6

down 6.8 down 5.5 the duration of the sil selloffs 22, days 14 days, 15 a days. here what's maybe a bit worse about this one in that we did not make a new high that is a bit of problem this was an incremental new high but really what this was was a failure to make a new high let's draw some lines. we have broken trend and interestingly today's kickback went back to the trend line and stopped and then if you put in the flat top there it is not a great setup. edwin again i think the bias is downside and what we have seen in terms of trouble is just the precursor to more trouble. >> all right carter come on back. >> i thought there was six scenarios on monday he talked about. >> you thought that on monday and you're wrong today as on monday because there aren't six. >> sweet laugh track so what i -- look, you have to

pay -- you know, heed what carter is talk bag think about apple. which didn't make that new high. think about jp morgan which maybe but really didn't hold the new high think about home depot, talking about very, very popular crowded trades that certainly paem have been able to have some justification on valuation and certainly some rotation element. and i would fwree those have been very disappoint sfwloog even costco falls into that category. >> yeah, i mean -- and again these are also crowded trades, right, because thaefr been working. you see a lot of people in the same names and now all of a sudden things are breaking down. you don't have to have the bear suit on. you don't have to say the world is coming to the end but you can also recognize that wait a second maybe it's not as eds as before. we don't know what the kbheed is doing. the odds of us getting a trade deal are lower than they have ever been over the last year or so so there is a lot of things out there that you just don't need to buy stocks today. >> i have a question for carter on the chart where it broke down

below where is the next stop. >> that's guesswork too but there are reference points, the june 3rd low, another 3 ob 4% is then unfilled gap a bit lower than that. i think those are in play. i guess the real issue is this and infent of the charts. >>is i'm sorry what is the june 3rd, 2815. >> 2828 and a little bit lower than that. but the issue is for markets to go higher it's one of two things right, either multiple expansion or earnings growth and that at the end of the day is bottom line which of those or is it a little bit of both? is actually going to happen? and wide anyone can make a case for either of those right here. >> multiple expansion. >> b.k. canned. >> rhetorical questions he is asking now you know the answer and carter's mind. look we've been in a range a long time. there is a lot of ammunition for both sides frankly, again, the glass half

full is we digested an enormous amount of headwinds if we get some solutions here and some clarity even on where the fed is going and we get some earnings that give more clarity into all the ceos who are either making or not making the investment decisions? the business, the markets have been sideways. let's be clear. >> plus question, carter that is does it make a difference that expectations going into earnings are low. expectations for a lot of things have been ratcheted lower, therefore, the ability to beat is much greater and bringing the markets higher. >> i think the decline is 3.7% third year over year quarterly decline in a row you know, that's -- you can say is the bar so low we beat that i don't know, so far the things we have heard have not been encouraging and there's not been a lot of beats and the ones that have beat have been tepp i had in terms of price action. >> like nike. >> nike hardly broke out where the the collapses like fed he can and carnival. >> fresh new lows for fed iks

today. >> what facebook did that sent shares snap tumbling today constellation brands tanking and in terms of one investme gngntoi up in smoke. we explain when "fast money" returns. in the human brain, billions of neurons play in harmony.

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welcome back to "fast money. facebook appears to be taking yet another page of out snap a's playbook with the launch of the new app threads. let's get to jewely bartzin live in l.a. with the details. >> facebook launching what it calls threads by instagram, a new app. the news sending facebook shares higher by nearly 3% while snap sharps are down 3.3% today on this news. this new messaging app puts the camera front and center. it's designed for communicating with users, close friends from instagram. in addition to sharing photos and videos users could share locations as well as their status now, this is just the latest example of facebook and instagram borrowing some of snap's popular features, including stories and augmented reality lenses these features helping drive instagram to about half a billion daily active users, more than double snap's roughly 200

million daily active users analysts are weighing in on what this new app could mean for the competition between the two. brett tho of judgies saying we believe it's a incremental feature set in his engagement at facebook for snap this is a speed bump not road block and it would buy snap on weakness giving advertising checks have been strong. now one question is how facebook will succeed launching an entirely new app, where some of the past efforts to launch new stand alones apps have fallen short appear failed and shut down a list of stand alone apps they shut down. pug poke for sending photos and videos disappearing in second. sling shot potentially sharing with friends and instagram had a spin off called bolt forred sending messages that self-drukt, never got a worldwide rollout. we reached for the out to snap

for comment on the facebook move to copy features they said, no comment. back to you. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin and of course we beirut you the story just a couple weeks ago or so that snap kept a dossier of voldemort of the sneaky things facebook has done to copy features and this seems another one for the dossier. >> so what i mean the way i look at it is what what are they doing about it. >> there is examples of this throughout time, including remember when japan used to copy our stuff and make it better than us before there was china and again not a trademark thing. the fact that facebook and therefore instagram has the platform that dwarves snap and can take ideas working in social media and actually execute better is kind of tough luck on snap the way i look at it. yes yes, there may be anti-competitive elements of this but in erms it of copying ideas and new testimony plates on them, so what. >> that's a good point

but in this day and age. >> you'd think facebook wouldn't want to do that. >> it would be more. >> like outtrumping. >> exactly they earned it, the ability to do this with a billion and a half use zbleers it highlights how fragile snap business is. you have no moat around the business if facebook can copy what you do. what else do they have i don't know why you buy snap on this news because no matter how good you are and the idea you come up facebook is going to copy it. they have nothing else >> i don't know how much facebook was up necessarily on this we got a nice bounce today in. >> it's been an outperformer relative tokts in the past couple days. >> they're wearing the anti-trust well the last few weeks. cheap on other metrics i don't know how to factor but i'm long. >> facebook is sort of sometimes -- this is true a stock is a waste of time it's not bearish it's a waste of time sometimes you're fairly priced

it looks like facebook is one of those stocks at one of those moments. >> let's have a list of carter werthism fallow, waste of time is good. so many of them. to for from one fang stock to another. let's get to netflix netflix falling flat on today's session. bank of america new note calling the quarter make or breck for the stock. analyst saying the investors are looking for sign that is net flex can compete in the streaming landscape arizona as disney and apple get ready to launch stream services do you agree this is a make or break quarter for netflix sfl there is a needham note saying netflix has to lower prices in order to maintain subscriber base in the united states. given the low prices of the competing streaming services. >> well if that's true, that's clearly bad. i don't think it's priced in for significantly lower -- that is just margin chopping, right. >> right. >> remember when net knicks had pricing power. >> that was the whole claim that they have infinity -- inelastic.

>> raise it a couple of bucks people pay it. >> that worked a long time maybe now that finally all the competitors are actually here or almost here, or will be shortly, maybe that's the end of that i can't get around the valuation of netflix i know tito had trouble for a long time. >> and painfully i think i sought to not short the thing. i think around 250 on the chart you have a major level but more importantly yes, the valuations people are looking at media companies, good for the media companies that can expand valuation. the biggest thing for netflix right now is there is a -- i think a saturated domestic market and international subs really need to grow. and that's where there's been disappointment no, i think this is a continuing to be a painful moment for a high multiple stock in a market that is not accepting companies that don't make money. and burn cash. >> this is not a market you want to be netflix. this is not a market you want a high multiple, don't make money,

need the back up of the market get the pass they used to get. the story here is broken used to have the pricing power used to have that growth yeah, there was competition coming but it wasn't here yet now the competition is here. they don't have pricing power. and growth is slowing. so the story is broken means it's a broken stock. >> at worst-case scenario let's say the competition comes in and caps their growth por limits it in some way even at the margin and not able to raise price maybe they don't have to cut prices but all that combined equals less of a -- of a growth. >> broken is a broken are the chart. it's down 30% in two months hovering ominously as a well defined prior low. this is actionable i'd be short. >> you'd be short this stock. >> i love when he picks the word actionable >> there is the two waste of time maybe. >> short. >> you said you wouldn't short it thank goodness. >> i'm saying i didn't short it when i was wrong for a couple of hundred bucks on the way up.

but i do think that the structural elements of the story are coming to root roost. >> tesla short now carter gave it to the werth stamp of approval or hort showing. >> the moment on tesla was when it was clear there was a balance sheet issue. it wasn't -- the deliveries this or that. netflix doesn't have a balance sheet issue right now. they have debt they have raised $3 billion in debt burning cash but, yes, i think it's going lower. am i short going tomorrow? probably not at these level. >> up necessary the constellation brands getting crushed zbiet the beat i why the big bag bad on grown made the stock red wild week for the markets with the vix at highest level in the months 'lte yy not want to panic yet. wel llou why when "fast money" returns edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from finding out what's selling best...

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welcome back to "fast money. investors in constellation brands feeling a hang over after the stock fell 6%. despite the earnings the buzz kill. the cannabisspectively consequence sflagss $4 billion in conditionpy growth. the pot stocks not feeling the pain the group lighting up on a smoking hot streak he had will

by aurora and. >> so much fun in there. we had so much fun. >> pun to treat. >> in terms of constellation brands there is no surprise here as to what's happened with the investment in cannabis they were early. wanted to be early they made a commitment they have' affirmed that as far as commitment young there is any hesitation i met with the cfos of all three companies including acreage. and the commitment is resounding so ultimately their core business, first of all, beer was better, margins better, depletion rates brpt process and the marlanaen rates make sense. in terms of canada space, first of all you've had vaping headlines, a number of companies that frankly could not forecast their business and did a poor job in terms of telling you where the growth was they were supposed to deliver, the hockey stick moment for a lot of companies that frankly has never come the stroo industry has done a lot to itself.

they used the stock as a currency to do other acquisitions and therefore, you know, people cynical will say there was misaleanment between investors and the companies. the companies were krennivized to get the stock price up and do deals. and there is setup for disappointment but the devastation in the cannabis space if you think about it, i mean canopy was down almost 5 a% off levels in april before the bounce. last week was the down week for the seccer where you had a lot of stocks down 20 to 30%. >> i mean, the expectation for earnings season aren't great either in terms of what's coming next for a lot of the stocks there are some, you know, readjustments of earnings estimates and expectations going in >> yeah. >> that brought them down as well. >> think about what we talk about on the show. story stocks, netflix, wework, these are companies if they're not making money and have no sign of making money. >> this is another bucket. >> absolutely. absolutely i don't think that's canopy

growth i think 80s company with 3 billion in carbon the balance sheet at a time of extreme pain. they can be opportunistic now and i am long the stock. >> i'm with you. here is the thing there are two types of weakness. weakness to stay away from and weakness to take advantage and you have to decide which in this case, i think you take advantage of it. the quick selloff very meaningful percentage, 210 to 190 a lot of support here i think it's an opportunity not a problem. >> okay. well be sure to collect out jim cramer' interview with constellation brand ceo bill newlands oh at the top of the hour on "mad money." a spooky month for stocks. one options trader bets nothing left to fear breaking down the action much more on fast still ahead. - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished,

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welcome back to "fast money. it was another roller coaster day for stocks s&p 500 town more than 30 points if at the lows before rebounding to positive territory all this a as the vix cracked 21 before heading back down to the teens but as investors worry the volatility spike is the worst of any to come. one options trader made a bo bold bet the worst may be over mike in san francisco about the "options action." >> as you pointed out we saw the

highest vix in over a month today. not surprising given how the market has been behaved in week. quite poorly one of the trades that caught my eye, the january 22nd weekly options in the vix were trading a lot. i is saw a sell are of 2800 of the buy to 16 strike puts. put on the trade of the collect the 50 cents a contract to do that while they make a bet it's not going above the 28 strike price it contents have to go below the lower 16 strike put for them to see profits. essentially what they are doing they will will see profits from if the vix drops but will see some profits if it lingers in here i think this is somebody making a bet that if we do see any further weakness it's likely to be drifting somewhat lower and not gapping sharply lower. i think that's sort of what we see here i think it's important to remember, gnat vix will respond as it did today to movements in the s&p. when the s&p rises you're going

to see the vix fall. and vice versa that isn't necessarily an indication that is options premiums per se have risen or fallen it's a function of how the market behaves intraday. >> what did you do with your vix did you zbleel i didn't and wish i had. this is -- we oent. >> you told fuss the vix fieks. >> ien i know you're sush sli a seller. >> going to be seller. you i blew it missed it and blew it i would not- we talked yesterday i wouldn't be a buyer yesterday. you know, you're buying insurance when your house is maybe not on fire but it's smoking and really looks bad that's not the time to buy insurance. so i think, you know, i wouldn't be a buyer again until 15 or lower. and when it really feels like you absolutely don't need protection everything is fine. tease the time you got to buy it. >> all right, mike thanks for that we'll see you on friday. for more "options action," full show on friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, fin tde alras.

what do you look for when you trade? alras. i want free access to research. >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade. of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪

welcome back to fast quick recap of the day tp stocks sold off on weak ism services report before rebounding now the focus is tom's jobs

report let's say sort of choose your adventure. let's say we get a stronger than expected number. what do you think happens with the market, karen. >> trades down and then up. >> i would prefer that number. >> why trade down? >> just no fed cut, knee jerk reaction. >> what do you think, carter. >> see, i think that because it was so weak this -- today based on the data that if it's weak market shakes it off and if it's strong the market shakes it off. >> either way the market. >> doesn't do anything special. >> i think the strong payroll number market will have a huge sigh of relief into the weekend. the market would ral. >> big rally on the strong number final trade time, carter. >> think precious metals down here, better opportunity to get long silver in particular. >> happy birthday to my husband. i would take to you disney now but i won't. but it's my final trade. happy birthday, love. >> you happy birthday lawrence. >> happy bogart day l.j. short end of the yield curve, one to three current trade

one to three year bonds, 2% yield. >> tim. >> world famous arena. rangers opening type constellation numbers fine business doing better. constellation. >> see you tomorrow back here fo my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you, put it in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc, or tweet me @jimcramer. we've going so used to being afraid that we've been selling stocks for days on