it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your five at 5:00. break out. the playbook for wall street a wild week for stocks could today be more of the same? because there are some recession warning signs out there. a string of weak data has investors on edge with the latest report due within hours of now breaking news in hong kong as the government looks to crack down on protests

talk about an apple a day. new reports the latest iphone models are selling better than they expected. trade war hitting europe right where it hurts we are live from parma, italy with a look at one industry preparing for the worst. ready to say cheese. it is friday, october 4. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning. happy friday welcome. i'm in this morning for brian sullivan we start with breaking news out of hong kong where the chief executive carrie lam just wrapped up a press conference. our own chery kang is live >> going forward with what some key people call a last resort

banning face masks, invoking emergency powers giving them the power the make laws in emergency situations and goes ahead with those measures the hong kong government highlighting or trying to minimize the reputational damage of this discussion take a listen. >> hong kong is not in a state of emergency we are not proclaiming that hong kong is entering a state of emergency but we are indeed in an occasion of serious danger. i would say we are now in rather extensive and serious public danger >> this comes amid escalating violence amid the hong kong arrest the government going for

something stronger and more effective. that is the hoping at least. we have a three-day long weekend coming up here we'll see how effective this mask ban will be >> chery, how does this reflect with the constituency? this is the first time something like this has been evoked? >> this is the first time since 1967 we have more on line chatters about gathering tonight in many different districts to show their defiance and to show the government that they can wear the mask even with this ordnance there are a lot of questions especially when it comes to option lawmakers about this

potential jep ardization of separation of power. a lot of questions about how practical this implementation is going to be. back to you. >> thank you for that update we appreciate it to the markets now, we are coming off a wild ride of stocks coming down before bouncing back there it is, yesterday, we saw the biggest come back from the dow from its lows since may. the s&p's biggest bounce back since august the dow is down more than 2% this morning, stock futures indicating the dow will open fractionally to the down side. you can see here, the dow would fall by 50 points, the nasdaq by 7 and s&p by 15. 10-year note you can see 1.519%.

two-year yields 1.38% as well. on the european side, the ftse 100 in the uk and the cac in france just about breaking even. back home, investors remain focused on this morning's jobs report due out in about three hours from now economists expecting 145,000 new jobs created up from the 130,000 this country added in august. joining me now, chief market strategist she joins us live in houston this is a massive day for markets because of the wild ride we've seen is it the possibility this jobs number could really send the bulls or bears to their

respective corners >> absolutely. this is a big number every month. especially this month now that we've had weakening numbers. people are really looking at this to see is the consumer this the foundation of this economy are they going to stay strong? are average hourly earnings going to be good there is a lot riding on this number the markets could be set up for a lot of volatility as they are set up one way or the other. >> we often joke about how the current job's report is the most important since the last job's report this is about scales and the idea that we are seeing signs of a slow down and possible

recession. what exactly will be the key in this job's report for you about whether those scales get tipped one way or the other >> we know the number of jobs created is going to come down. we can't keep generating 200,000 jobs a month like we did in the beginning of the year. people are expecting 130 or 140 range. the hourly rate and the hours worked will be key when we look at a list of recession indicators, the labor market is one of those that has the most positive strength people look at that to say, no, we are not going into a recession because they are strong this is one of the telltale signs. then they start to tilt towards

the down side. >> are there companies you are looking at in terms of this environment? >> we always look for names that have been hit. the last new name we actually added was in-housing that was lenar we added that back at the end of august the name has done really well since then look at housing. housing has had a turnaround it hit cycle highs in august that is a good place to be right now especially for builders on that lower price range we are adding to staple names. we added to coca-cola and apple. find your niche where you think there are opportunities. >> victoria, live in houston thank you, very much >> my pleasure the must iphone 11 has only been on sale a few weeks but apple is asking suppliers to

make even more of them due to a strong demand. >> apple has told suppliers to increase production by up to 10% or 8 million units that would be total to google's total phone shi shipments this year. apple launched three new iphone last month the iphone 11, 11 pro and promax the surge in orders are for the cheapest 11 and the 11 promodels. the phone is skill produced in china. trump has delayed the tariffs to help sales during the holiday shopping season. the nikkei report shows those

are higher chip suppliers are higher all by more than 2% >> thank you when we come back, how low can they go? global interest rates in free fall mode as another central bank hit the easing button >> find out what happens when planet of the apes hits brexit in an art gallery. and willem marx is live in parma, italy >> you know is cheesed off is parmesan manufacturers they feel they are being held hostage with the tariffs of 25% on their products.

>> the latest threat of tariffs on italian products and one industry particularly hard willem is in parma, italy. that is so much cheese behind you. >> more specifically, so much parmesan riganno

these are like massive dairies inside this room, you've got 5,000 wheels of pharmacy they mature from 12 months to three years. the flavor changes as that happens. each one of these weighs around 9 90 pounds. that comes in around $1,600. what the trade body for this particular cheese, they've expected that $1,600 per wheel to go up to $1,800 once these tariffs kick in. when you and i have a chance to eat together on the east coast and we go to put some parmesan on top of our dish, that higher

price will see their sales volume in the u.s. drop because people will look for cheaper alternatives they'll see their bottom line getting hit. you've got 50,000 workers in this region of italy working exclusively on parmesan manufacturing. one of these requires gallons of fresh milk every day we watched the process they mix milk that was left overnight with that morning's fresh milk they add something that comes from the cow's stomach that causes something to drop to the bottom these huge calderones, you see the whey and curd come together. this has probably been like this 12 months. they stay here one of the solutions to trying

to resolve this, leaving out the politics is what do you do about the finance? the italian agriculture ministry has requested money, support from the european union. we've seen this before when exports to russia were hit they would provide money for italian producers to keep these on the shelves longer. they might get paid to those these in rooms like this until this gets resolved >> i'm going to channel my inner brian sullivan right now because this is his show would you say a trade deal right now is not maturing fast enough given your cheese analogy? >> good. that's really good you listen to what the european commission has said all week in brussels they talk about the need for

negotiations they've said that for months they responded almost immediately to that ruling to airbus and subsidies they are requesting a special meeting and to impose a tariff two weeks from today whether those talks happen anytime soon, leave that up to you. >> the dish is on me next time you are in new york, willem. have fun with the cheese factually there in italy new numbers from the cdc over vaping as the industry scores a rare win in new york state. today's big number 158,000. that's the average number of jobs added each month so far that is down from the 223,000 per month added r ntinpemoh 2018 . this changes everything. you're right sir... everything. no not everything, i mean you're still blatantly sucking up to me gary. brilliantly observed, sir.

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1.25%. the central bank tries to boost growth the rate cut follows a $25 billion cut to the corporate tax rate announced two weeks ago also coming two days after australia cut the interest rate to 1%. keep in mind, emerging markets have all responded to slowing growth economists say there is more room to cut. most say there is lower merging market currencies. experts say it really depends whether growth improves. they say monetary policy has to be tied with fiscal reform >> we have a bank meeting on october 24 and a fed meeting at the end of this month.

we'll see what happens there >> seema, you mentioned about the growth startup are there certain places where there is more of an expectation growth could rear itself is india one of those markets and where else could it be >> latin america is posting particularly strong growth that depends on what geography you are looking at similar to germany, there is still this push for a lot of these to boost a lot say the rate cuts won't be enough to stimulate growth and to ease a lot of the nonperforming loans they are sitting on >> still to come, tim cook

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>> welcome back. let's get a check on the morning's headlines. more with the latest

good morning, philip >> north korea claiming the latest missile launch was a success. being a type of missile capable of being launched from a submarine. these are harder to detect early. the pentagon says there is no indication that it did launch from a submarine but instead from a barge or platform an update on bernie sanders who underwent heart surgery. his wife says he should be open next weekend >> a texas bank teller is being hailed a hero after fighting off an armed robber when she arrived to work. the banking veteran went into

survival mode fighting for her and her co-worker. the robber took off taking nothing. >> straight ahead on the show, wall street bracing for the worse as we count down to this morning's job's report and why fed vice chair is taking this week's stream of disappointing data in stride our panel weighs in when we return after this. ♪

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>> wall street whiplash. closing out a wild week for investors. some argue the most important read on the economy. announcing new emergency measures to end the protest to par lies the city's economy. planet of the apes meets brexit in bank sy's latest masterpiece. you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back thanks for being with us two of the markets because they

are big, where we are coming off a wild ride for stocks the dow down more than 1,000 points at one point before bouncing back. yesterday, we saw the biggest come back for the dow from lows in may the s&p's biggest bounce back from august. you can see some massive moves in that roller coaster week. the s&p by seven points and by 15 you can see here, the two-year note deal slightly higher at 1.388% >> a busy morning in asia.

we heard from hong kong, carrie lam banning face masks saying the order goes into effect tomorrow consequences include one year in jail and a fine of $25,000 to the early trade in europe now live with the latest there it has been a rough week for markets out there largely tracking the same moves in wall street this morning, when things opened

up now, things have turned south stocks having a tough time this morning. also to that wto ruling and implications to the tariffs in the u.s. and europe and a number of european goods. holding on to early gains they've been hit the hardest a little catch up trade in the uk you just wept through there just in the last couple of

hours. just like you, state side, we are keeping an eye on those reports due in a little while. see what the gains and losses look like. a bit of diversion ens up half a percentage point technology, one of the better performers the chip maker with better reports for the nikkei a bit of extra support there we'll be watching those job numbers out in a little while. >> live in london for the update on european trading. >> back on wall street driving reaction in stocks all week it all started on tuesday with the major miss on the ism numbers. adp also a miss there. yesterday, the ism services growth slowing to a crawl.

today, the all-important jobs growth is on tap one person not worried that is the vice chair, the risk of recession is low and adds the central bank is ready to act >> we take them one at a time. we are not on a preset course. we will act appropriate to sustain low unemployment rate. we said that in june, july and september. i'm saying it to you tonight >> let's try and make sense of all of this now. ubs chief economist, seth carpenter and former treasury as well i will start, seth, with you first. rich just spoke saying the u.s. is not going into recession. he's got data on his side but

not all is flowing that way. in your mind, what exactly is the balance right now? is the u.s. tilting towards a recession? >> we have a slow down coming in the next year. the risk of that happening sooner rather than later that is coming this morning because the 8:30 jobs report will be key. we have about the 132,000 forecast that shades the risk there >> take us behind the curtain a bit here you use models there to predict outcomes how has your modelling changed we have seen so many different data points with regard to warning signs on tuesday, the ism nonmanufacturing and on wednesday, adp, the services

number on wednesday. how have your estimates been revised or moved you've seen those slow down. it is not positive by it self- we know that this trade war has hit the manufacturing sector hard given those estimates and the data it has been a roller coaster ride is there noise or still more to be made from the bull market that could last for years?

i would say the bull market would be in tact consumption is 70% of our economy. what i can say about the weak data, the stock market overreacted and that's why you saw a rebound a third of the way through yesterday. the probability of the fed increase maybe a week or two ago, there was a chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. and probability of a cut this month, 57% of a chance of a second cut before year end that would help the economy when we listen to the comments, it sournds like the fed is read to act they are ready to step in to make sure the economy continues

to move forward and hopefully the market does as well? >> if you take a look at the way the story is shaping up, you continue to make this kind of bull run what would you need to see outside of a string of job numbers to make you feel as though you can change that thesis now to say, a, there is no recession still on track for a healthy, slower economy >> we don't have an outright recession as a trade line. the 15% tariffs. we are really worried. given those back where we saw growth slump then. we had another escalation.

it is a whole set of body blows. what we have from the trade war will take a toll i'm going to stay pessimistic for an outright recession and slowing. >> as you start to strategize, what are you looking for and what are you staying away from in this market >> just like seth said, we are concerned, right we have a very defensive positioning right now we see the consumer is still strong it is still high that is 70% of growth. the whole world is relying the consumer is strong but become very, very price conscious. companies like walmart, dollar

general. tj maxx. that's where you want to be right now. >> a great conversation ahead of large job numbers. thank you so much here in studio as well. >> later on today, don't miss a live interview with eric rosengren at 12:20 eastern time. a must-see interview more coming up on job change and ceo change at bp stay tuned you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc

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. >> getting a check on stocks on the move bp will retire after march

he'll be replaced by the head of the company's upstream business. steering through a new collapse following the deep water collapse those shares up in extended early trading. hp will cut up to 9,000 jobs or 16% of its work force coming through a combination of early exits. the move is part of restructuring plan in incoming ceo. bp will incur a charge of $100 billion. those shares off 5% in trading they have costco's fourth quarter earnings, beating forecasts. missing targets. costco has been helped by strong consumer spending. the economy has been growing and

growth slowing slightly over the summer the mysterious lung disease that has been linked to vaping >> good morning. the cdc is now reporting 1,080 cases of lung disease being reported from 41 states and include 19 deaths. most report having used thc vaping products. health officials have yet to determine exactly what is causing the illnesses. the director saying, quote, this may be the tip of the iceberg of the health threat this possesses particularly to youth and young adults concern of these have led to a call for a ban

new york state ordered for a temporary stay groups representing business owners sued saying the ban would effectively put them out of business the trump administration said it is drafting a ban on e cigarettes as well new information on the nature of the illness came out from the mayor clinic saying the injuries to a lungs look like a chemical burn similar to those exposed to toxic or mustard gas >> so could it be the additives or maybe people making their own liquids. is that why we are so focused on this black or gray market? >> in reports of the people who have gotten sick, it sounds like most of the people who vape thc

containing markets obtain them from a black market or on the streets. it doesn't sound like the cdc is comfortable saying, if you go to a licensed facility, you'll be safe so they are saying to avoid e cigarettes >> what else are you talking about today? >> facebook making headlines william barr is asking them to hold off on end-to-end encryption saying threads, a snap chat rival that would allow them to send private messages with friends. saying he doesn't have a personal wealth threshold but no

one deserves that much money >> that is ironic, he doesn't want to be a billionaire >> is it just hard to give away your money that quickly. >> i'm trying to feel sympathetic. >> sympathy, not empathy you'll love this banking a decade old banksy painting sold for $12.2 million sold for nearly nine times the previous price after a drawn out bidding war. this one didn't shred, right remember that last one i thought someone is going to pay $12 million and it will

shred in front of them again >> you have to wonder if that price has to do with what is going on in the uk now >> thank you for those updates on deck, the count down to the all-important jobs number. who is hiring? who is not and what do investors want to see? we have the answers when we rernft ts.tu aerhi make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good! high protein. low sugar. mmmm, birthday cake! pure protein. find our coupons in sunday's paper.

live shot of washington, d.c. not far from the capitol building there time for this morning's executive recap. the headlines you need disney's new streaming service launches but you may not be able

to watch it on amazon devices. amazon wants a larger percentage of ad space. if they can't resolve the issue, disney plus could be left off the fire tv platform >> wework's parent company plans to cut up to 25% of employees. saying that would be as many as 3,000 people that comes as they pull on monday following the resignation of cofounder adam neumann last week the idea of apple launching its own cryptocurrency cook tells a french paper that is not on his agenda and currency should stay in the hand of countries, not private groups or companies >> talk about a manufacturing slow down and the industry making a pressing challenge. a very real shortage of workers.

we'll go live to south carolina with more. >> reporter: good morning. the national association says with over half a million open jobs an additional 4.6 million jobs will be filled more than half left unfilled due to that skills gap. where they are actively recruiting workers currently 800 employees work here they'll need an additional 200 workers to keep up with demands for its washing machines >> there aren't that many manufacturing facilities here. we are pulling candidates from all over they don't always have that experience of manufacturing. it takes them a while.

some decide it is not for them others are here for a good amount of time >> the company is recruiting at nearby trade schools, colleges and working with veteran groups to find suitable candidates. pay begins at $13 an hour and those in supervisory rolls can start around $45,000 a year with good benefits. manufacturers across the country will be opening their doors for students middle and high school students will come to see what it is like to work in manufacturing they'll see it is a bit more high tech and may potentially consider a career and help to fill some of those rolls. >> what is the biggest issue in helping to keep them >> i think what you heard here about work-force readiness

not just hard skills and understanding the job, soft skills and understanding you need to be here on time. really committing, they bring in a work force to help ease the shortage when workers don't wind up coming in or sticking with this that is somethingthey'll work on to make sure you have the hard and soft skills to do this job. >> thank you for that update we are now just more than two and a half hours away from the september jobs report. could be the latest disappointing data issue let's ask the ceo at quill intelligence tell us, is this jobs report going to val date tidate the bu bear report? >> there is a ton of confidence that suggests the situation is not isolated to manufacturing where clearly there is a need for skilled workers we've seen

five reports that was until we saw the ism services come out yesterday at a 50.4 level just above contraction we combined based on gdp rating services and manufacturing we found employment in this country is at 41.9 services ceos see the job market at being at the weakest point since 2009 we are seeing quite a bit of evidence that services slowing right now. >> if that is the case, what is the trajectory is it a situation where we could be growing more modestly

we haven't seen one in a decade? is. >> the game changer this week. the past few months, we've seen certain indicators drop to the lowest level since 2015/2016 the recovery kept chugging along. many indicators especially from the northeastern services sector where the bulk of service workers work in the nor'easter where you are. they've fallen to levels which was 2009 levels, which was recession arie that points to the weakness in employment services area >> we know you are an out spoken critic of the fed. you've written a book about them we are still focused on the fed and what they can do and whether the ammunition has what it used

to take us through that are rate cuts in a place that can work to keep this ee condition my going is. >> we've seen five different reports that shed light on the 100-basis point decline. we've seen major housing and new home sales we know the interest rate sectors such as housing are benefitting. other than that, they are not going to say that they are constricted by the cost of borrowing. i think jay powell is aware of this they'll have limited efficacy. >> danielle, the biggest key for you in this report coming up >> we've had five straight

months of revisions. i was to i was taught that three months of revisions signal a trigger. we've had five i'm looking for six. that is key. >> big jobs day coming up. "squawk box" picks up that coverage now >> good morning. we have a string of data this week now the count down to the next big data point is coming the jobs report will get you ready for the big number this morning. breaking news out of hong kong the government looking to crack down on protests looking to what it means tech ceo speaking out about wealth in america. showing you why one high-profile executive may be feeling the

burn it's friday, october 4, 2019 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from new york, where business never sleeps this is "squawk box. >> good morning, everybody welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. our guest this morning is steve grasso, a cnbc market analyst. great to see you we are going to put you through the paces today talking about what happened. what is likely to come up today with the wild ride for stocks. the dow down 1,000 points this week check it out we were up 96 on monday,down 343 on tuesday, down