Skip to main content

tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  October 4, 2019 9:00am-11:00am EDT

9:00 am
premarket. positive mentions by analysts at citigroup. they maintain buy rating, we'll watch those shares for catalyst into earnings season i'll send things back over to you. >> thank you for that, dom have a great weekend join us next week. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good friday morning. withing to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with james cramer, david faber. 136,000, just south of estimates, wages up 209, year on year, down from 32, which kill give folks something to debate today regarding the future health of the labor market road map begins with the latest key read on the economy. jobs, unemployment hits a five decade low, stocks set for a
9:01 am
positive open to close out what has been a volatile week >> plus, more phones, please apple reportedly increasing production of iphone 11 models by 10% the shares are rallying. >> also capitalism as we know it, is it dead or how much wealth is too much surprising thoughts from marc benioff and mark zuckerberg today. 136 is a good number the unemployment rate down to 3.5. retail loses 11 k. manufacturing loses 2 k. government up 22 >> this is a number which says to me that the fed can still cut because the sector being stagnant is manufacturing. a lot of that is the fact that the dollar is so strong. it is very interesting, they talked about hey, listen, we have tariffs, don't worry, the dollar is strong and the chinese currency is weak, it makes up for it that's something we have to be thinking about
9:02 am
we continue to lose because of the currency so that gives the fed reason -- ability to move. i don't like that it is all healthcare again reminds me of the old economy. >> it is also a lot of government workers potentially for the census steve liesman was taking note of the fact that private sector didn't look that great and that does go to this question of whether capital investment has slowed and therefore hiring has slowed as a result as well. >> it has. i think the people are very uncertain. don't forget, if you pay any attention to washington, any idea what is going to happen any idea no none >> okay. >> every day is an adventure. >> washington is a -- the biggest tailwind, biggest head wind of the economy that i can recall i've not seen it since nixon, such a head wind and it is just -- it fights you at every turn. you have to check twitter, check the -- look at the lead headlines. china, ukraine, biden -- you get
9:03 am
me >> market doesn't care about -- >> lowers the pe the manufacturing stocks are doing terrible >> that's trade. impeachment or trade >> okay, the classic example is that when speaker pelosi said we're probably going to get a deal with mexico and canada. i don't know how that's possible that's a huge part -- much bigger than china. how do we not get that deal? the mexicans wouldn't do it, canadians wouldn't do it, we can't get it through congress. >> who is to say we can get a good china deal ratified,000 congre through congress >> that's my point i'm trying to impeach you, let's make a deal. >> the china -- >> trade agreement, sure, yeah >> i just think that -- look, they're hurting the economy. you need -- you talk to u.p.s.
9:04 am
or union pacific, we need a deal with mexico. plus, i mean, the currency is such an advantage for them it is almost 20. you move to mexico, i know the president will come after you, but free healthcare, very -- better education system than ever, a lot of safe cities, don't believe all the stuff, it is a big country, no pollution control rules to speak of. non-union. >> back to the employment number, 3.5% of unemployment, 3.5% >> no inflation. >> 1.5 or 1.6 on the ten year. >> how about that trump? >> david wessel sent out something earlier, if you told people 2009 this would be the way it looks, never would have -- >> not possible. unbelievable. >> ten years later marty busey from pay chex, why is the unemployment rate not lower? can't find people. it is a percentage >> if that were true then, why are wages down from the prior month?
9:05 am
>> right. >> 2.9 if it is so tight, why do employers feel they can get away paying less than we were a month ago? >> i think there is a gig economy that shafts people don't do as well >> that's curious. it is. in a tight labor market, the fact that wages -- >> i was surprised at the wages. i was surprised. it is incredible that you can have -- >> keep waiting for and it doesn't ever really come we have seen spreads up 3 or 2.9. >> automation, digitization. service now can replace you. sales force can replace you. >> i got 3.5% unemployment rate. who is getting replaced? somebody is finding jobs. >> people who make 80 to $120,000 are being replaced by technology that's what's happening. >> big paper out of the san francisco fed this week about
9:06 am
whether or not -- it is not off shoring really it is automation. >> you talk to these companies, what are they doing? they're making it so -- what is zendesk doing? zendesk is making it so you don't have to have a big customer service business. that's what -- z scaler. you can outsource all sorts of cybersecurity, okta. what are you doing, just repeating what i'm saying? >> yes. >> ring central. >> ring central. >> all real companies that -- >> avaya. >> my daughter said, listen, dad, i want to be the coo of okta i said you need some experience. who knows what it is, why can't i just do it. >> z scaler. >> done. done your way. z scaler is a real company. >> i know it is. >> the control room is trying to keep up with your charts that's all. >> okta had a major breakdown. >> digitization, automation, a lot of things contributing which
9:07 am
will increase, contributing to keeping a cap on wages in some way. >> pressures >> there are still jobs. there is a -- >> if you bring in sales force, you don't need a massive research department, they'll do it for you did marc benioff -- >> we'll get to his comments >> brilliant >> first, let's do apple up in the premarket, important story, nikkei says the company told suppliers to boost production of the 11 by up to 10% or 8 million units, due to better than expected global demand the recent surge in orders is concentrated in the cheapest model and the 11 pro we always say splay chain leaks, don't take it to the bank, but a big move. >> you knew it, i checked around about how people are doing sources in the company it is not just the phone, the watch, where is my watch
9:08 am
i ordered it three weeks ago where is it? there is a backlog for a lot of things, what is important is that the underestimation of the new phone pro, like, people -- i was with someone yesterday who said can you believe three cameras, what you can do with them, you can throw away your nikon, sony, they're cameras, this is a very popular -- slimmed down one is popular. the nfl ad, i think, is so important. the ad shows you they pulverize this thing and it keeps ticking, it is waterproof a lot of features to the 11 i think were underestimated by the people and tim cook always underestimated comes out, and people say, nothing new since steve jobs, nothing new. it is one of the most compelling machines that i've seen and particularly if you're instagram oriented person and you use instagram to build your business you look like any other large retailer, if you use that
9:09 am
camera >> or if you're snap -- >> snap is executing better. instagram -- >> remember they went public. >> that's what they call themselves, that was probably ill advised. i think that we're in a moment where that camera is a game changer and people didn't think it was people you want. >> there is snap morgan stanley takes it to neutral from sell today. they do say we question the ability to garner higher multiple on a sustained basis. they answer why didn't we take it to a buy. >> look, when you look at what clorox is doing or procter is doing, they're trying to find -- estee lauder, trying to find these people, these illusive millennials and gen whatevers. that's what they are they're cord cutters, they're not watching us, they're watching things on -- they're watching their instagram feed. you can -- i don't know if you've seen the new level of
9:10 am
instagram ads, it is, like, this is a dog feed, dog feed, here is an ad for dog, they're listening to you i don't know if people feel good i was talking about a terrific doctor who passed away, dr. cleaver. the czar -- the drug czar for george bush. and he was fantastic and then i open up my pc and it has his obituary. >> this has to do with what? >> speak and they -- they hear you. they give you an ad that is -- >> they were responding to your -- >> i was talking an my pc heard me and popped up the obituary. >> that's scary. >> what matters to me is the advertisements have gotten so sophisticated, you click on them, you think they're, wow, i want that, it is targeted. i think that's why snap is going to do okay we don't have -- someone should -- >> snap is used as a communications tool by all the kids now they don't text each other, they
9:11 am
snap each other. i see it every day. i tried to text my son, i adopt get him. i'm not on snap. i'm not reaching him. >> if you want to reach him, you got to join. >> church and white has an all natural deodorant, they want to sell that to your son. that's how they reach you. >> they all snap to communicate. where are you going to be? i'm going to meet you here that's what they use that's good for snap >> yes that's where the advertisers are. >> right. >> my other one is on instagram looking at makeup things >> that's why estee lauder comes up huge budget on instagram for estee lauder, one of the great companies of our era fabriz fabrizio >> okta. >> z scaler. >> he doesn't know what okta does. >> i do.
9:12 am
i no he whknow what okta does. >> he thinks it is a cereal company. there are companies out there saving people, companies money we have to pay $18 for dishwasher at -- >> shopify. >> shopify shopify is one of the greatest creators of jobs in our era. >> want to set up an online retail retailer, boom >> we're going to a break, a lot to get to, including hbq, costco, ge, stephen tusa over at jpmorgan cramer's mad dash, count down to the opening bell one more look at the premarket the jobs number, 136 k back in a moment
9:13 am
♪ ♪ i've been a caregiver for 20 years. no two patients are the same. predicting the next step for them can be challenging. today we're using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patient's recovery. ♪ ♪ ultimately, it's helping thousands of patients return home. ♪ ♪ ♪
9:14 am
9:15 am
all right, we made it. it is a friday got about 14 minutes before we get started with trading here, final trading day of the week. like to keep track of those things our last mad dash, costco reported after the beth. wh what do you think? >> people saying it wasn't that good of a quarter. stocks under pressure. that's just -- that's nonsense
9:16 am
these guys are more in control of their own destiny than any retailer other than perhaps walmart. and richard galanty told an unbelievable story, cfo, it is not just that they sold a diamond ring for $220,000, sold another large diamond ring for -- i love the fact that people buy -- >> walk into costco and buy -- i don't know where they buy. >> costco, $220,000. they opened a store in shanghai. >> yes. >> had to close it in four hours. why? they have unbelievable demand. 200,000 members signed up. that's like more than they'll have from costco -- >> in china. >> does he not then say like any cheesy retailer, we're going to put up ten right now he says, we have to figure this out. we're going to be measured in our growth in china. people didn't want to hear that. they wanted to put up a lot of stores and screw it up
9:17 am
i just think that it is just -- those who sell today, i'm laughing i'm laughing those who sell -- remember the when travolta says -- >> what is the secret to costco's success in ten words or less >> membership cards. >> all these years. >> membership cards. >> the ability to go to china and do what other retailers have not been able to do. >> it is called price. i got a shirt there for $27. do you know that most people, companies, have to pay like $50 and then they market to 75 i got it for 20. jim was at that point running it i went to the one up in new york, jim, look at these, look at these i bought ten of them i could open a retail store, i would make a fortune the prices are low
9:18 am
and the card, the card, the card, the card it is a club it is a club i want you to join. it is as big as amazon join the club with me this weekend. i'll give you all, david, the free samples there, do not eat before you go. do not have you had the crab dip? the crab dip >> i haven't. >> you're coming with me you're coming with me. >> sounds exciting we got an opening bell, opening bell that's coming up, 12 minutes from now unemployment number, like the markets are reacting f ining fay well, more "squawk on the street" coming at you.
9:19 am
tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? tell him we need this merger. it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network according to america's biggest test. now with 5g evolution. the first step to 5g. more for your thing. that's our thing. servicenow put our this changes everything. you're right sir... everything. no not everything, i mean you're still blatantly sucking up to me gary. brilliantly observed, sir. always three steps ahead. six steps ahead. sixteen.
9:20 am
so many steps. you done? a million steps ahead. servicenow. works for you. there are things we would change about work. and there are things we wouldn't. ♪ when work is worth it. work is worth it. work can be closer to home... pay more... make us proud. careerbuilder. work can work. find your work at careerbuilder.com
9:21 am
a lot of people commenting that to print 136 k given all the uncertainties is a big positive market seems to think the same dow futures up 60. opening bell in just about nine minutes. turn on my tv and boom,
9:22 am
it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim.
9:23 am
9:24 am
. you're watching "squawk on the street." the opening bell in six minutes. busy jobs friday, 136 k just south of estimates of 145. but the unemployment rate down to 3.5, the lowest since 1969. you mentioned costco, talked about apple. we haven't gotten to the hpq organization, which will mean a fair amount of layoffs 16% of the overall workforce new ceo comes in, and lowers the boom in terms of significant reduction. despite the fact that the company has done fairly well >> enrique feels they have -- >> since the split into hp inc. and -- >> this printing business, needs
9:25 am
to come up with a new model. the low margin, not being made up by demand for pc or more importantly i keep hoping that the 3-d business will become a bigger business, something that would happen, still too small to move the needle. >> it is a lot of jobs. >> it is a lot of jobs. >> we have seen other layoff news from lowe's and even deere this week. nothing -- no numbers like this. >> no, this is printing has just been compressed so badly i know that they have got this new model that is more of a subscription model to me, it is another way to shrink jobs. >> you can go back to meg whitman first took the job, i don't know how many years ago that was, and we followed it closely, they had 325, 350,000 employees. hewlett-packard. there is a lot of companies now that came from that, but the jobs numbers were nowhere
9:26 am
near -- >> they'll buy back a huge number of shares, a good yield dividend will go higher. it is eight times earnings, a lot of stocks eight time earnings for those that think the market is expensive. i have news for you. i can give you ten stocks the market -- that indicate the market is not expensive at all ford, gm, micron, goldman sachs. >> stephanie link joined us yesterday on the closing bell. >> that was a great discussion. >> she's excellent she talks about pepsi, she loves it, but can't buy it at 25 times. you have some names -- >> utilities record valuation. >> reits the reits are just incredible. that's, gain, that's rates, bu i think the discussion with stephanie, costco came up, and costco is a very expensive stock, but doing very well >> she owns it at 35. >> i know she did. i thought that was good. she liked that i -- pepsico i think is really an ideal situation, analysts negative of one analyst today, i
9:27 am
won't mention, said that they didn't -- they made it all up in price. i've seen big volumes for a lot of new liquids, but, remember, it is a frito lay story. >> you look past the weakness in carbonated soft drinks >> that is -- new drinks mountain dew wasn't that good, it wasn't strong but i think frito pllay is incredible i think they're doing a lot of stuff. coca-cola, i think it will be fine james kwquincy, delivered a good number i think it still can be bought. >> jpmorgan cuts csx to neutral. >> brutal. brutal cut >> what kind of comment is that? had a great run. >> export and import economy they're just not sending the same number of 18,000 containers
9:28 am
on a boat anymore. and vietnam isn't making up for it i think there is -- the rails are very problematic the rails have come down huge. they all went up on what david likes to talk about as precision railroading. >> yes hunter harrison having introduced it originally before precision railroading, just chaos and then somebody said let's bring rescission to railroading and now all precision. i'm joking, but it is a funny term. >> i like union pacific very much here. i won't back away. i think they return a lot of capital. are they going to make the quarter? probably not a lot of jokers are making fun of me. phil came out, phil lebeau said probably approved. i don't know what is going to hurt boeing if it hasn't been hurt already. the answer is there is still a lot of demand out there for some -- secular demand for real estate on the reits that are strong,
9:29 am
the ones that are towers, the ones that are data centers the ones that are apartments for millennials moving out of their parents' place there is strength. secular winners, aerospace is a winner millennials love high. that's dorito. >> aerospace, tusa, 90 pages, 90 pages on ge, aviation. >> mine stops at page 10. >> have you ever read war and peace? >> no. >> is as long as -- >> this is as long as -- that's your takeaway. this is as long as war and peace. i asked ben stodo, do you have a cliff notes yet? >> there is only one line that matters. we maintain our underweight with a downside buy to $5 target. >> he says aviation is not the gem you think it is. it is really page 31 that got to me
9:30 am
>> this is so -- ge is not exactly happy with this analysis they think it is a little ill advised. you would never own this stock, ever, if you even read to page seven, about as far as i got >> opening bell on this friday big board this morning, it is asper interesting, jim, after the jobs number, odds of a rate cut in october didn't move that much. >> i was surprised still people looking at 3 1/2 and saying that's crazy. but you have to look at the makeup of the jobs it is not that good for industrial housing is so good we know retail has layoffs it is spotty i think the fit has to cut because of the dollar. the dollar is too high that's the overall -- when you hear it on the pepsico
9:31 am
conference call, you hear it on the costco conference call, caterpillar is beaten on the head by the dollar >> it is we hear about it a lot from our -- >> peter navarro. >> yeah. >> peter has a point about the dollar he does. where is larry >> do not know. >> larry is not coming on. >> why larry would know about the dollar king dollar here. >> king dollar. >> scott mentioned with even on apple upgrades, adverse effects, we know we talked about it with pepsi. we don't usually comment on bnp paribas. underweight nike, in part because of huge -- >> you talked yesterday about how much of the s&p is manufacturing. look, the dollar, in any situation where we're
9:32 am
competitive, like caterpillar, we're going to lose. deere, we're going to lose if you can buy something in euros, it costs too much to buy our stuff. i tried to buy deere tractor in italy. the price of a porsche a tractor. the price of a porsche >> you didn't buy it in. >> no, it is the price of a porsche. >> what are you doing? >> trying to get a used european tractor. trying to buy a used european tractor. >> that's what they're hoping for. >> they're winning our stuff is so expensive over there, it is frightening p people don't understand. >> shouldn't it, though? >> jay raised rates so quickly because he wanted to cool the economy. how come he's taking his time? it is cool we got a soft landing. we don't want it to be a hard landing. i've had one of those on a u.s. airplane, it is nasty. we don't want that
9:33 am
they form the runway >> you told us that story. >> so i'm sorry that i -- you're saying i repeat myself >> why is jerome jay not jerry >> that's so relevant. >> ask that one for me. >> i'll ask alisa. >> i you nknew you would have a to get an answer for that. >> interesting reports out of the ft today that pay pal is on the verge of quitting libra. we talked a little bit this week about the project. >> dan schulman, dan shulman is doing really well in china, dan schulman is a remarkable guy le libra is hard. that's an interesting defection. i want to see what visa and mastercard go. i felt you should have the right to have a libra if you're in another country.
9:34 am
i would build a basket at goldman sachs that would be like libra. it is not what people are talking about now. >> no. one thing we haven't talked about recently, any private market coverage part of our day, wework goldman sachs and jpmorgan trying to figure out their way out of a bad situation >> goldman long. >> no, they were the key advisers on the ipo. didn't go very well. suboptimal. >> now they're trying to raise more money they need it >> david, 11% bonds, don't you think you can buy them, get a couple of coupons. >> maybe if you're jpm and goldman sachs, you need to do fairly large financing, get yourself back by assets at the top of the stack of some kind then try to restructure. >> lay off 25%. >> maybe a boat load of warrants to go with that. we'll see. we'll keep following the story. >> bad real estate company
9:35 am
>> i don't know how you would describe it. i don't know. >> just really, i don't know >> then there is the reuters piece that masa having a hard time raising money for the second vision. >> the money in wework, the uber valuation, a number of things. they had successes in the -- >> juul. >> not in juul vision fund one. two of the largest investors in vision fund one were not yet -- have not yet committed to vision fund two even though they -- in the press it was reported they were already potentially had circled a large number that remains -- >> middle east money is pulling away there. >> i don't know if it is pulling away key backers. saudis in for 45 billion 27 billion is that preferred to pay 7% that was a big part of the 100.
9:36 am
>> right. >> you need them to be in number two. as for juul, press there too, about a markdown from a hedge fund, i'm hearing it is lower than that. this was 300 is where it was trading in the secondary market, not that long ago. and now i'm hearing you can see real action somewhere between 75 and 125 in terms of where people sell we don't have a chart, not a public company, altria owns a good slug of juul. >> they created their own market what is that about you can't create your own valuation. it doesn't work like that. >> no. >> doesn't work like that. >> juul has been cut by two thirds potential. >> maybe it is not done.
9:37 am
the market doesn't have enough money to do -- they should not become public. this is a terrible time to become public. >> even a direct listing >> no. they just -- they'll -- >> they're a different cat they're making some money, aren't they? >> they're making money, why are they calling it such a horrible market where everything is getting destroyed, just coming public why would they do that why wouldn't you wait? you're desperate if you become public it is horrible. >> navarro is on cnn this morning, the job numbers should in the deter the fed from lowering the rates >> he thinks the dollar is overvalued i say it here, it comes out there. >> you do. >> yeah. what are you hearing about bankruptcy lawyers and wework? >> no. not needed no okay early. >> early days.
9:38 am
>> yeah. >> barons has a piece out saying it is time to worry about triple bs again we had record corporation issuance in september. and rates are low. bill rudin on squawk saying great for real estate companies. if there is a slowdown in pace, you would worry about some of these -- half of the corporate bond markets >> i think we got a little lacking in caution asset light. covenant light 3.5%, i've been listening to all the people talk about real estate and manhattan big country. very hard to get -- if you're in the rest of america, so to speak, things are pretty darn good i think there is always going to be guys who went badly and built badly. i think it is a forgiving market and you can restructure. i think wework can restructure very quickly if they want to
9:39 am
have to lay off a lot of people. but their places are full. >> that helps. >> that's what they did. >> that does help. >> where is that fellow? >> the valuation, and what you should -- what multiple you should apply it a business like that you cannot -- you're going to grow very quickly if you spend as much as you take in, in revenues. >> right >> lose as much as you take in. >> i think it is a growth stock that is not really a growth stock. it is -- i would rather be in cbre >> don't trade apple own it. >> that's a lot of market cap for apple. it helps the dow. >> that's another one where carrie's mom said you're going to laugh at me i said that apple should be -- i said the 11 is good. i've been laughed out, ridiculed, i had to take a huge number of heat for saying i don't like the new phone
9:40 am
you know what? i'm a rhino. i can take it. it doesn't bother me one bit bring it on. come on. get me come get me. apple is good. it should be bought. it should be bought. >> in all fairness, we get leaks from the likes of nikkei saying they're cutting production, we dismiss them in this case, we want to -- >> i know my channel checks, my channel checks indicates hard to get. they don't have everything and, remember, not just those, there are accessories that are just selling so well watches used to be a business. people sold -- now still -- somebody trying to get me to buy -- >> you know who makes the biggest selling watch in the world? it is on your wrist. >> i have a beautiful -- >> the tight rope -- >> yeah. >> i had a beautiful bright one, gorgeous my wife says i don't want you going out with that apple thing. i said, no, it is the apple thing, i talked on the phone, it
9:41 am
is like maxwell smart. >> dick tracy. >> it is i used it constantly i love it. but then again, i guess i'm a house man for apple. can't get them and now they -- >> can't get the cone of silence. doesn't bring that down. >> or the shoe phone. >> this is better than a shoe phone. did you like agent 99. >> say again >> did you like -- >> sure. >> how about agent 99. >> you like that that much? >> my father and i both like agent 99. >> twinkle in his eye. maybe i dream of genie a little bit more. >> no. >> mary ann. >> come on >> ginger. >> elizabeth. >> oh, geez. the professor and his wife the movie star. >> we're back to 2924. let's get to bob pisani. >> nice start to the day a lot of concerns about recession alleviated a little bit by the jobs report
9:42 am
look at the sectors, what is moving here. nice little move up with different sectors here generally positive here. banks went negative. industrials, retail, semis, energy, all flattish if you look at what has been going on, we had a strange amalgam of growth sectors continuing to do well and defensive groups like consumer staples, odd combination utilities and semis, consumer staples and semis doing well energy is down, for example. banks have not had a good week, generally down 3, 3.5% industrials down 3%. so generally cyclicals still very much on the weak side what about this jobs report? what has it done for the narrative. with points, fair to say it is cooled, but not eliminated some of the recession it narrative out there. we're all prime for a negative number or lousy number i think -- did it cool the rate
9:43 am
cut narrative? i don't think so i don't think the numbers were strong enough to cool that narrative down that's the problem here. it was okay. but not strong enough to blow away completely that recession there. let's call it right in the middle here. 75% chance of a fed cut now, was 90% yesterday for the month of october. where is the consumer? we talked about this yesterday, job growth strong, slowing wage growth steadily improving a little below expectations on this month retail sales still strong. talk to the ceo of mastercard and visa, they talk about the consumer being very strong revenues keep going at mastercard great yar for them and great year for visa. consumers still strong where are we what is going to move the markets next week? the trade deals. the representatives are coming in from china. next week. the china delegation in town i think it is fair to say the expectations are pretty low on this one here. i think there is more urgency due to the weaker data we have seen maybe we'll get some kind of movement here overall.
9:44 am
after that, of course, all on earnings and we'll get some more important companies within the next two weeks jpmorgan, johnson and johnson, wells fargo on the 15th, and then my favorite, the deep cyclicals, that will be october 17th so the next two weeks, we'll get much clearer information on the pace of trade negotiations and earnings commentary for the fourth quarter and that's going to set the scene for the rest of the quarter. carl, back to you. >> obviously huge story on the bond markets rick santelli at the cme in chicago. >> just big drops on the week. it is unbelievable keep in mind, yesterday we added a new cycle low close to tuesday. took out their 143 still below that now, so you can see we settled at 163 last week so we're down well over 20 basis points, we settle at 168 in 10s, 153. these are really big drops
9:45 am
look at one week of 2s note on the next chart, september 2017 is when we comped yesterday's new fresh cycle low yields close if we look at one week of 10s, same dynamic in place, you open it up, you can see july 2016 when we comped the 93. september 3rd, 146 cycle low. there is a little bit of cushion there and do also remember 146 is close to 136, which is the all time low yield closes with an s for 10s because it happened not once, but twice, july 12th and july 16. dollar index, i hear a lot of talk about the dollar index from jim and i hear it from the administration, they want a weaker dollar. they want to play the manipulative game. you know why they're mad about the dollar being higher than it should they're mad that other countries have not manipulated them. is that what it has come down
9:46 am
to the dollar is a good strong dollar i remember a time that larry kudlow said that was a good thing. one week of the dollar index, it certainly has drifted a bit. let's put it in proper context not far under 99 and the high close, just shy of 9940. we're still very much in striking distance of what was established as you see on the august 1st chart of the dollar index cycle high carl, jim, david, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. views on wealth and capitalism from two of the biggest players in technology. start with mark zuckerberg yesterday with facebook employees he responded to senator bernie sanders' comment that billionaires should not exist. >> i understand where he's coming from. i don't -- i don't know if i have like an exact threshold on, like, on what amount of money someone should have, but, look, at some level no one deserves to have that much money
9:47 am
>> listen to what sales force marc benioff had to say about capitalism at yesterday's tech crunch disrupt summit. >> i really strongly believe that capitalism as we know it is dead that we're going to see a new kind of capitalism and that new kind of capitalism that is going to emerge is not the milton friedman capitalism that is just about making money. if you're orientation is just about making money, i don't think you're going to hang out very long as a ceo or founder of a company. you have to be more than that in today's world. you certainly have to be more than that in san francisco our tech industry as well. >> if you want to know about what marc says, read trailblazer, it has it laid out, it is really good. suggests that everybody go listen to mark zuckerberg's town meeting, it was extraordinary. the next line was, that's why i'm giving all my stock away i think we ought to give him
9:48 am
credit for that. >> benioff in particular is hitting on something bigger than this idea of how much money you have which is this change that we're starting to see in the cap pal markets in a more significant way or which it comes to investing. efg, we keep using initials, what we're talking about is a change in the way that those who make decisions about how to allocate capital are looking at the opportunities available to them and taking into account things that are beyond what might have been the case. this is happening. the impact still hard to say it is not lip service anymore. >> and marc talks about one of the most important stake holders, the earth, which is fantastic. look at bp, bp announced a new ceo. people are talking about him as a millennial, someone the millennials might like they don't like the fossil fuels. this new ceo is involved with china. mark's stuff is extraordinary.
9:49 am
zuckerberg, he was baited about elizabeth warren didn't take the bait he knows -- these are big issues >> he did respond to warren. take a listen to this. >> my question is around elizabeth warren and her statements of wanting to break up big tech companies. you've made some statements about her in the past and how are you going to stay impartial to what, you know, she continues to say about facebook and still using our platform >> all right, well, try not to antagonize her further >> comes on a week where sanders, his health is in question and the president's approach to the inquiry has some saying undermine biden. >> president tends to make it so you are confused about who is good and who is bad and pretty great at that. he's got -- he has the podium. everybody wants him on their
9:50 am
shows, that's very powerful. i think that zuckerberg asks also about where the narrative is on -- they left this at facebook, trying not to be that. and want to try to be neutral, it is a tough time to be neutral. so many people want to call dayr over. >> yes look, they're saying change or die and i think his message must be read. trail blazer must be read. it's written with the help of monica. >> yeah, lang? >> yeah. "wall street journal" reporter. >> and a surprise winning reporter jim stewart introduced him. a great and vast read. it's a fast read. >> zuckerberg, also, that was the sort of -- that's not the congressional testimony zuckerberg >> no. that was a great meaningful town
9:51 am
hall i want everyone to listen to it. it was more thoughtful than what everyone thinks. not antagonize her more. >> when we come back, we'll watch the markets. dow's up 140 we're back to 2,924. check out our podcast, the opening quell of "squawk on the street."
9:52 am
9:53 am
9:54 am
amid all the volatility this week, which s&pers have done the worst? probably not a surprise. etrade, schwab leading the list as zero commissions just took over that industry back in a minute opportunity co. and to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. we help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage interest rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. all so they can manage their risks and move forward. it's simply a matter of following the signs. they all lead here.
9:55 am
cme group - how the world advances.
9:56 am
9:57 am
>> what's up for tonight >> what's not as bad, like pepsi, starbucks and we have katrina. i think the stock is radically undervalued, but people don't want growth. they want earnings. >> we'll see you tigonht, "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern. dow is up 151. ♪
9:58 am
9:59 am
10:00 am
♪ good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl with david brewer sara eisen has the morning off
10:01 am
dow nice gain, 200 points to the upside unemployment rate 3.5. now we're getting comments on the dollar and the number from kudlow, from navorro, from the president. >> our road map starts with the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, strong jobs number. >> plus the future of tobacco. altria is out with its newest device. and more cut, ahead for wework the question from here, where does the company go. >> let's get to the job numbers. big story today. steve leishman joins us having had more than 60 seconds to look at the internals >> i don't need 60 seconds, carl, you know that. no look we're getting in a big debate about what has caused this job market to slow definitely coming in below expectations definitely coming down from the north of 200,000 average last month. the reason is why, and i'll get to that in a second, let's go through the data, 136,000. we're looking for 145,000.
10:02 am
the revisions were upward, but a lot of that was to government. private sector in some of those months was revised down. hourly wages disappointing, actually, although they were up pretty strong last month, now running 2.9% year over year. unemployment ticking down, a big decline in the number of unemployed in this nation. it remained steady not a big unflicux, but not many people leaving the unemployment rate hits a 50 year low we dent g down at 3.5% we have not been there since 1969 we've taken that moment. we can move on now and take a look where the jobs were or where they are there's government a big chunk. 22,000 government jobs and a lot of that being from the census. that's going to keep going up over the next couple months. look at leisure hospitality. those are pretty much signs of
10:03 am
good economies when those two sectors do well. manufacturing, however, we know what's going on there and retail trade down 11,000. we don't know if that's perhaps one of the two reasons why the job market is falling. maybe because they can't find workers. that's what some of the economists are telling me. led me read you two different ideas about why this job market is slowing the first one deals with the trade war and a weakening economy. it's as good as it's likely to get until the trade war is resolved leading indicators which warn of the slow down in job growth over the past few months will tell us that we are now pointing clearly to the trends slowing to just 50,000 or so by the end of the year but over at pnc they have a different idea of what's happening. they say job growth has slowed this year due to a tight labor market making it more difficult for us to hire and slower global economic growth. that's the second reason they put there. so carl, there are very different reasons for the
10:04 am
slowdown and leads to very different potential policies from the federal reserve if it's slowing because we've hit this natural rate we can't find workers, you wouldn't necessarily want to accelerate into that economy, but if it's slowing because of trade and other reasons of demand, you might want to stimulate that economy. carl >> steve, thank you for that i'll take it from here so joining us now, grant thornton who is the chief economist and diane swank. diane, let me begin with you how do you put these numbers into perspective about jobs and where we're heading for the economy? >> we have seen a significant slowdown over the last year and i think the weakness is more related to trade also some of the softness we saw in spending on services over the summer people pulled back actually under discretionary spending and accommodation and food in august in response to concerns about the trade war. that negative news effect is much larger than it once was,
10:05 am
even though consumers are on solid footing and i think that's what you're also seeing in the slowdown it slowed down quite dramatically over the last year. the manufacturing sector, of course, is related to trade. so i do think we're seeing some of this more of a weakness, low there are parts of the economy where you literally can't find workers, transportation warehousing is one of those. last mile delivery is where they're having the hardest time finding workers. they did hire up and that is where wages have been accelerating the deceleration in wages are in information technology that seems like google and wireless, telephones, cable, news, broadcasting that's the area that had been the fastest wage growth. that slowed to almost half its usual pace in this last month. >> grant, where do you see the challenges here for the job market for david -- sorry about that, where do you see the challenges for the job market and for wages and how it fits into the overall economy
10:06 am
>> well, i think the most important thing to recognize here is the limits to growth it's great to see an unemployment rate at 3.5%, the lowest since 1969, but everywhere in this report you can see the businesses are really finding it hard to find qualified workers. i think that is having some effect but i think the immigration story is actually quite big in this report too, because if you look at that slowness in the hospital industry, that makes sense to me based on a big decline in nonimmigrant visas. there are fewer tourists coming from abrooad there was a pent up demand for labor because we had over 7 million job openings for over a year i think it takes a while to feed through. i'm a little bit more concerned about this i do think this to some extent reflects still lingering strength from last year, but i think these job numbers will slow as we head towards the end of the year. we're going to supply and we're going to demand side constraint
10:07 am
because of the trade war and the impact it's having on business psychology >> when you're talking about psychology, too, how do you see, david, the psychology on the consumer when we're still seeing consumer spending, we're heading into the all-important retail season, retail has been struggling lost 11,000 jobs here, do you think that's likely to turn around these last couple months of the year? >> i don't know the job losses in retail will turn around because it's a huge makeshift towards online, but i think that will stay strong what happens is when consumer confidence falls, i've never seen consumer spending really pull back. what happens is that businesses become more cautious and they slow down on hiring. i'm going to be looking at next week's jobs report for carefully to see is that inventory of job openings beginning to come down, are businessesi being more careful about hiring to me that is a warning sign of an economic slow down. i never think the american consumer is going to get scared. they're the toughest consumers in the world when the going gets tough,
10:08 am
americans go shopping. that's not the thing that i worry about. >> people are now saying we've got to watch jolts, we've got to watch claims, but how are we going to separate things like the gm strike from things like the high frequency number. >> that's a great question because it's going to be a lot of noise in the mechanics month or so. we have not only the gm strike if it continues into the middle of next week, it will show up in the october employment report and industrial production. the ripple effects have been felt throughout the industry not only three the suppliers now doing some layoffs, seeing a little bit of untick in unemployment claims and also spillover into canada and mexico next month is really going to be very noisy and it's going to be harder to delineate the ripple effects of the gm strike from the manufacturing sector weakness related to trade wars i think that's going to complicate matters as we get into the next month. i also think it's important to remember that as we look at these numbers, there has been some of the weakness we're seeing is -- i disagree with
10:09 am
david on one thing these consumers are more reactive to negative new shocks. i think of last december when there was chaos in financial markets, but consumers were in great shape, yet they actually pulled back in the height of the holiday shopping season in december and one retailer said they disappeared for an entire week that's not something we saw in the past that's a different kind of skittishness that we see in the business sector that seems to have bled a little bit into the consumer sector. it's one of the things the fed is worried about can create a self-fulfilling prophecy as we get this noise from gm, i do worry about what that means from consumer confidence as well. >> david, feel free to respond to that from diane final question on wages and why you think they did not increase given a 3.5% unemployment rate. >> i think there are seasonal changes in consumer spending around the holiday season which make it hard to interpret that but on wage growth, i think it says, again, a little bit about this business, caution, businesses are quite capable of
10:10 am
drawing a line, even in tight labor markets, saying we will not pay an increase. what's fascinating is you can have this very tight labor market, anybody can get a job, but it's much harder to get a raise. i think that's just a sign of the economy we're dealing with here but we'll be watching all of this carefully whether it's consumer spending or business hiring, either way i think there is trouble ahead if we don't see a more confidence and more certainty around the trade outlook and the overall economic outlook >> on that we both agree. >> diane, david, thank you both for joining us appreciate that. there has been a lot of talk about a manufacturing slowdown, but there might be more pressing challenge and that would be a shortage of workers, something mr. kelly was just referring to. kate rogers is live in south carolina she's got more on that story kate >> reporter: hi, david good morning the national association of manufacturers says there's currently more than half a million open jobs in this sector through 2028 an additional
10:11 am
4.6 million jobs will need to be filled, but half of them may go unfilled due to an ongoing labor shortage and skills gap within the sector that's why manufacturers like samsung are actively recruiting talent the plant opened about two years ago. currently about 800 employees work here. the company will need an additional 200 or so manufacturing workers in the next two years in order to keep up with demand for its washing machi machine. so far tariffs are not impacting their business plans because they're taking a longer term view. >> tariffs can have an impact in the short term, but for an investment like this where it's running up towards half a billion dollars of investment here in south carolina, we have to take a very long-term view of that and that's driven by demand for our products, access to a great work force like we have here. >> samsung is recruiting at nearby trade schools, colleges, working with veterans groups to find suitable candidates
10:12 am
pay here will begin at about $13 an hour, but can reach about $45,000 a year for those in supervisory roles and include tuition reimbursement and 401 k plan they're host touring of students in middle and high school. they're opening up our doors to show younger generations what it's like to do this job it's a bit more high tech than they might have envisioned you're not leaving here dirty at the end of the day these are cleaner, newer, higher tech manufacturing jobs. so it will be interesting to see what the kids have to say later in the day back over to you. >> that's a great story, kate. an important one given everything we're talking about today. kate rogers watching samsung and manufacturing. when we come back, don't miss an exclusive with goldman's chief economist. we'll get his take on this 50 year low in the unemployment rate obviously wages, the dollar, what the fed's going to do next. plus are thousands of layoffs
10:13 am
really coming to wework? we'll have details on that thst"sawon story when quk e reet" continues. dow is up 155.
10:14 am
10:15 am
two big players in the technology world had some surprising thoughts on making money. take this comment from sales force founder and ceo maat an event yesterday. >> i really strongly believe
10:16 am
capitalism as we know it is dead we're going to see a new kind of capitalism and that new kind of capitalism that's going to emerge is not the millton freedman capitalism. it's just about making money if you're orientation is just about making money, i don't think you're going to hang out very long as a ceo or a founder of a company you have to be more than that in today's world. you certainly have to be more than that in san francisco you have to be more than that in our tech strindustry as well. >> and we have mark zuckerberg responding to recent comments from senator bernie sanders saying billionaires should not exist. >> i understand where he's coming from. i don't know if i have, like, an exact threshold on what amount of money someone should have, but look, at some level, no one deserves to have that much money. >> joining us now, "new york
10:17 am
times" columnist, a cnbc skri distributor, do you agree no one deserves that much money >> can i say the obvious these are two people who are already billionaires it's already easy once you have these fortunes, when that ship has sailed, to say okay, let's close the gates behind us. so nobody else should ever have this kind of money it's why it's so easy for all of us who are not billionaires to take some of that money away they don't deserve it. but i think the real question here is what kind of incentives do we want for the future people like zuckerberg and benioff? they both created huge companies and as a result made a lot of money. they were incentivized to do that in part because there was a huge pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. and for all of those who did succeed, there are countless people who did not have billions or maybe anything for the risk
10:18 am
taking we need incentives that's what creates economic growth employment and economic well-being. >> do you think any of this is just token talk? listen, we've got all of these democratic nominees to be the president, talking about how wealth is bad and how the corporate tax cuts are hurting the american workers and on the down line? is this something to apiepease h masses >> there's no question it's the current political climate, not just the democrats, but a lot of commentators and people have teed up this whole issue, what is thenature of capitalism, should people be rich, how rich should they be, which i think is a healthy debate we need that every once in a while. why do we have a capitalist system what other approaches have been tried in history and succeeded or failed? that's always a health i thing to do. but i do think there's a lot of lip service right now. as i said the year before, why do we want to strip people of their wealth when we already
10:19 am
have a supposedly progressive tax code that is not fair, is not efficient, is not working, and it could be improved without having to confiscate people's accumulated wealth. >> there are two different things here, though, we should point out. benioff and zuckerberg, benioff is also talking about changes in the way investors think about how they want their capital allocated. esga we talked about in that way i think there is something real going on. you may be writing about it at some point in the future he is referring in part to that i think as well beyond the idea of great wealth and what happens to you. >> yes, he's making some interesting points, although i think he's overstating a little bit. capitalism throughout its history, there has always been a pendulum going back and forth between how much of the incentive should go purely to the owners of productive assets and how much to various other layers of the economic system. i mean, i do agree with benioff that somebody who's soul goal in
10:20 am
life is to make money is at high risk of failure, but i don't think that's new throughout my career i've seen people, most of them who do the best do it not because they want to make money but because they want to do something else that just happens to bring the money along with it. it's not like they're completely divorced, but there may be a few people who go into hedge funds who have no goal in life -- >> a few. >> again, i'm not saying everybody fits into that category, but even that, look, there are few people may make out like bandits, but then the system corrects itself i think the enduring fortunes for the most part have come from people who have, you know, contributed, have really built something. facebook is a phenomenon is there luck involved yes. should anyone be as rich as that maybe not. but that's kind of an abstract question and to me it's a mistake to look at one
10:21 am
billionaire or two billionaires. what we need to look at is the overall system and the incentives in place for the other people to take risks, to create new jobs, to create products we all want to use and make it a better world. >> there is that and then there's the inequality argument which is starting to work its way into the presidential campaign speaking of which, presidential candidate elizabeth warren ramping up efforts on her tax plan we're going to listen to robert frank. >> they are the two words that could reshape the elections and the economy. >> a 2 cent tax. >> you've got to pitch in 2 cent. >> a 2 cent wealth tax yes, that is a 2 cent tax. >> that's right. at rallies, campaign stops around the country, elizabeth warren supporters are raising those two fingers and chanting 2 cents. there are 2 cent t-shirts, 2 cent buttons, 2 cent refrigerator magnets and two
10:22 am
warren staffers dressed up as pennies. the rise of the 2 centers speaks not only to the appeal of the wealth tax, but also to the more than 60% of americans who support it and her skill at turning complicated tax policy and debates over inequality into catchy emotional slogans the actual plan, of course, is far more costly and complicated. it calls for an annual tax of 2% on wealth over $50 million 3% on wealth over a billion, raising $200 billion a year. taxpayers would have to estimate the current value of everything from cars and real estate to art and private companies. by the way, most european countries have long abandoned wealth taxes for lower than expected revenue and as former secretary treasury recently said, this is not a little tax this would be extremely burdensome tax on wealth back to you. >> with that said, how do you think that will res nate >> well, i have to hand it to
10:23 am
her, it is catchy. it gives somebody something to chant. i think it's probably better than locker rough or some of those, but this is an enormously complicated system the fear of course with any tax is it might be 2 cents today, but what's it going to be tomorrow and then it's 3 cents and 5 and then 10. but it is not easy to administer the bureaucratic cost, i shudder. what about people over 65? >> but over $50 million? that's a fairly high bar >> it is a high bar, but again, it's like the 2 cents, it's $50 million today, it's $40 million tomorrow why stop there what's magic about 49 as opposed to 50? they're all rich if you don't have that kind of money. >> we deal with that now in tax structure. you make just enough to be
10:24 am
included in that bracket or not that bracket the lines will be drawn somewhere. >> they have to be drawn somewhere, but the question is, i mean, this is a whole new structure. this is a quote/unquote wealth tax. based not on earnings but accumulated wealth wherever you draw those lines, i think is going to be -- >> we end up back at the point you made which is why not get capital gains. >> we've got all the mechanisms in place, if you want to make the tax code more progressive, you do it. if you want to tax the waelgteay more, we have a structure in place. and if we want a fairer tax system, one that doesn't give outrageous benefits to real estate developers, we could do that too and raise a lot more money than people are talking about on the wealth tax. >> not under this administration. >> maybe that's not catchy enough there's nothing to chant about it i'll have to put my thinking cap on and see how can i make this more >> get to work on that, please coming up, altria launching
10:25 am
the tobacco alternative here in the united states. it's not a vaping device or a cigarette. sor what is it exactly we'll tell you and getting a check on the major averages right now z you can see the dow is up three quarters of of a percent nasdaq just on the heels of that good day over pull "squawk on the street" is back don't go away. gate 87? you should be mad at non-seasoned travelers. and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.
10:26 am
10:27 am
10:28 am
let's take a look of the strength of the long-term bond which tracks treasuries with maturities of greater than 20 years. it's up about 20%. over the past 12 months it is outperforming the s&p 500 by a wide margin with a gain of more than 27% when we come back, more cuts coming unemployment hitting a 50-year low. so what is the fed's next move chief economist will give us some answers ♪
10:29 am
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
10:30 am
10:31 am
welcome back, everyone i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update secretary of state mike pompeo meeting with montenegro's president as part of the european tour. they plan to discuss the country's roles in the western nato appliance pompeo did not speak to reporters on the plane during the flight from rome. thousands of protesters in masks streamed on to hong kong's streets after the territory leader carrie lam invoked a rarely used emergency power to ban masks at rallies that ban goes into effect on saturday >> it is essential for us to
10:32 am
stop violence and restore calmness in society as soon as possible we hope that the new legislation can help us to achieve this objective. and a painting by the british art of the banksy has been sold for a record $12.2 million. the 3-foot long work of art is known as divulge parliament. it was painted by the artest in 2009 it depicts chimpanzees in the house of commons some of these had expected it to sell for up to $3 million. four times the estimate. you're up to date. that's the news update at this hour carl, i'll send it back downtown to you. welcome back to squawk on the streets. the jobs number crossed just south of estimates helping the market recover some of the early losses of october. we're up 1 fre47 on the dow. joining us, jan hatzius.
10:33 am
very smart call. you were not overthrown by the sentiment in the surveys what did you make in the number? >> i thought it was pretty close to expectations. if you had ignored what's been going on in the last three day, you would have said this is an unspectacular report, but relative to the fears it built up, it was pretty good. >> should we stop emphasizing some of these survey, whether it's regional fed, isms, pmis? >> i think it's interesting at the moment the stories are sending a very different message from the hard data if we look only at the surveys and translate that into a growth number, the economy's barely growing. we get 0.4% for september. if we look at the hard data only and ignore all the surveys, we're at 2.5%. that's a really big gap historically i think you do want to put some weight on both probably because
10:34 am
historically sometimes you find that when there is a deterioration in sentiment, that is a leading indicator for the hard data to also deteriorate, but so far that hasn't happened. it seems to us the decisions businesses make are still not that growth negative they're still hiring they're still spending the consumer certainly is still spending so it's something to watch i don't think i would throw it out, but keep it in mind. >> so when you're combining and weighing on a pendulum or a balance, the hard data and the surveys, where do you come out how do you see the path? are we heading for a recession in the near future >> when i put it all in the blender, i will say we're probably growing at roughly a trend pace at the moment where the -- you know, the economy expands in line with potential in the sort of 1.5% to 2% range and as we go into 2020, we would expect something similar, maybe
10:35 am
a little bit stronger because i do think that overall financial conditions are becoming a little bit more supportive. you can see that in some of the more leading indicators like the housing sector has clearly started to improve, but there are some risks for sure and the pretty sour mood in the business sector that we're seeing in some of these surveys is something to watch. >> so we have yields lowering, interest rates coming down which might help with the mortgages and people who want to go into housing. on the other hand, you have wage growth stagnating. how does that play into what you're seeing for the future >> well, i think today's very weak wage number was a bit of a outlier. generally what we've seen is slow and steady acceleration in wage growth from the 1.5% range, 1.5% to 2%, five, six, seven years ago to 3 and 3.5% range.
10:36 am
this was a weaker number, but i wouldn't put too much weight on it because we have a lot of other wage indicators that have continued to slow gradual acceleration if we continue to see these kinds of numbers, i put weight on it, but right now it's premature. >> you talk about the difference between survey sentiment and voting with your feet. we have seen them vote with their feet, at least businesses on capex what is the difference between being more conservative on capex and hiring of employees? >> capex has been on the soft side it hasn't been terrible, but it has definitely been somewhat weaker i think that probably some of that is related to more special factors like, you know, for example, the slowdown in the shale industry that's had an impact on energy structures, but i would agree that there's a little bit of a gap between what you see in the hiring numbers and the capex numbers, although hiring of
10:37 am
course has slowed. nobody is arguing with the idea that hiring has slowed from where it was last year we had on average 220,000 new jobs per month in the last three to six months, it's been about 150. definitely weaker. >> kudlow is on tape saying the economy is suffered is the word he uses from a monetary tightness. how much more should the fed do? >> well, i think the economy is growing more slowly this year. i think there are a number of reasons for that financial conditions did slow down growth i think in q4 and q 1 of this kreer. in our view, that's actually the fed kind of transmission through financial condition system becoming less negative and we think it's probably going to be a little bit more positive as we go into 2020 so at the moment, i'm actually seeing a little bit more of the positive impulse what should they do?
10:38 am
i think there are arguments for holding. there are arguments for going. but i think what they will do is pretty clearly that they will cut one more time, because the guidance from the federal reserve is pretty strong chair powell talks about a mid cycle adjustment, 1990s style. those were 75 basis points in total. so we would expect another cut at the october meeting >> when we're talking about the trade war and the impact it has on domestic economy, we're starting to hear more companies bring that up in their earnings calls as a significant head wind you're seeing it in the serving indicators as well how important is it for these trade issues to be resolved and remove that as a challenge to growth >> well, i think it is a drag on growth it's a little hard to estimate i think you have a pretty large kind of range around the central estimate, but our central estimate is that the trade tensions are subtracting something like half a percentage point from growth at the moment.
10:39 am
so without those trade tensions, we'd be not at trend but modestly above trend that's our central estimate. and what we're assuming is that as we go into 2020, some of this tension diminishes as the trade negotiations maybe get put on the back burner a little bit more but i do think it's a down side risk that needs to be watched. if we see continued escalation, that would mean potentially, you know, still a trend or even below trend growth in 2020 >> is it fun right now trying to quantify the impact of either the election dynamic that we're getting into or the impeachment inquiry dynamic that we're in? >> i mean, it's pretty difficult to use economic indicators and economic data to do that you can, of course, you know, we do watch sentiment indicators as we've discussed. and they can be affected by political developments, but it's hard to do, sort of harder now
10:40 am
on how big that impact is. so i don't know if it's fun doing the job at the moment. it is a factor but not a factor that lends itself to economic analysis. >> good to see you as always we're keeping an eye on wework, of course, the private company whose plans to go public went up in flames a couple of weeks back, of course. the question now is the two new leaders of the company and their plan to try to at least stem the losses at wework through cutting of non-essential businesses and potentially layoffs. another key they're looking at is raising more capital. as you might expect, its former lead underwriters, one time ipo are still focused on that front in terms of raising billions in additional capital for a company that burns money very, very
10:41 am
quickly. how could it be done how quickly can it be done remains a question there is a consortium of banks, a number of banks, including j.p. morgan that has margin of loans to mr. newman who stepped aside as its ceo very recently you might look to jpm and goldman s goldman sachs to do some sort of financing, try to restructure things, get warrants we don't know at that point, but we are watching closely because they're under a lot of pressure. >> there are two things that struck me in reading about how the deal went down and what's ahead for this company why is that? it's a company that invests in long term real estate assets for short term leases and that there might be a disconnect in the actual model here. the second thing is now you have two co-chief executives trying to cobble together an approach forward and how difficult might
10:42 am
that make it to come up with something that's cohesive and really attractive to investors >> both good points. both good points the question of the business model, of course, has been one that people have asked for quite some time and it is incumbent on the company and mr. newman to come with a much cleaner looking s one which they were unable to do when we learned beyond what was actually disclosed a number of different things, certainly investors said no way, we can't accept that. as for co-ceos, it is not a typical thing. they are taking on different parts of the business. we haven't really heard from them not that they have to communicate publicly it's not a public company, but you raised some interesting points >> all right, guys we're going to watch that and wait for confirmation of some of these reports. >> we'll see it could be days or weeks, but at some point there's going to be a large financing or there's going to be capital. >> they said we're preparing for tough decisions.
10:43 am
when we and back, tobacco giant altria launching their new devices. public panic over the vaping lung disease where that company goes from rehen "squawk on the street" comes back fights cancer, repairs shattered bones, relieves depression, restores heart rhythms, helps you back from strokes, and keeps you healthy your whole life. from the day you're born we never stop taking care of you. i'm not really a, i thought wall street guy.ns. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool?
10:44 am
eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from finding out what's selling best... to managing your fleet... to collaborating remotely with your teams. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence.
10:45 am
could markets be barrelling for a swoon before the week is out? more "squawk on the street" is coming up. money? it's racquetball time. (thumps) ugh! carl, does your firm offer a satisfaction guarantee? like schwab does. guarantee? (splash) carl, can you remind me what you've invested my money in? it's complicated. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is being managed? if not, talk to schwab. a modern approach to wealth management.
10:46 am
♪ trade wars continue and they heat up. we've got more news on disney versus netflix, i think it's fair to say. >> well, david, we have been talking a lot about how disney's disney tv -- disney plus that is launching november 12th will be competing with netflix and now the "wall street journal" is reporting that disney is banning
10:47 am
netflix ads from across its tv networks we reached out to disney we're also reaching out to netflix to confirm this report, but this comes as both disney and netflix spend tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in marketing to try to draw people to their new subscription services netflix spent 1 $1.8 billion. they would want to advertise on abc and potentially hulu we'll see if they do that as well the question now is whether disney will confirm they are banning netflix ads from their various platforms. back over to you >> that's a lot. that's a lot of platforms, not just hulu. it's espn, nat geo. >> abc exactly. they have their cable networks, their broadcast networks, but even if you just look at the advertising heft of the network such as abc, this is a huge platform where netflix would be able to reach possibly
10:48 am
subscribers. so it would definitely be a blow to netflix if they actually follow through with that across all their platforms. >> refere >> julia, thank you for that let's get over to the cme now and rick santelli for the santelli exchange. hi, rick. >> good morning. thank you. it's always been about jobs, jobs, jobs, and today no exception. i found an exciting report, but in my opinion exciting innocent necessarily synonymous with a good report. i'll tell you what continues to bug me wages. we've had some really sharp economists on and they say the report, if you weren't aware of the isms, they're all kind of vanilla. i'm not sure i agree month over month wages unchanged, that was the worst level since october of 2017. on year over year wages at 2.9, they purged the 3% mark. worst level since july of 2018
10:49 am
granted, these aren't super long term, but it is something to consider because i think today if i think of a trophy for what i thought was the best spot on tv today would go to kate rogers, south carolina, samsung. it raises an issue that we talked about quite a bit before the recent sort of slump started to grab on a little tighter and that is, is part of the reason that jobs are going to be easy because there's just a lot of openings and not enough skills jones is a number and we'll be seeing it next week, it's a number that traders have never found all that enlightening, but it started in 2000 you could see it's been going up for years. as a matter of fact, it has had a 7 million mark for so many months in a row, and the high, we are only 5% off the high from about six months ago and the current level is $7 million. these are still really interesting when you look at
10:50 am
openings, considering when kate rogers founded that samsung appliance. another thing that isn't necessarily part of the employment report, i call it the growth spread. we really need to watch this because boones are not trapping as fast as20-month low with regard to where that spread is david faber, back to you >> thank you, rick let's send it over now to jon fortt for what's coming up on "squawk alley. >> hey, david. we're going to continue to watch these markets in the wake of that jobs report higher as you mentioned. we also got the ceo of vice media after the acquisition of refinery 29. going to checkn t dit ionheigal industry that is coming up on "squawk alley. we're carvana, the company who invented
10:51 am
car vending machines and buying a car 100% online. now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a year old or a few years old, we want to buy your car. so go to carvana and enter your license plate,
10:52 am
answer a few questions, and our techno-wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds. when you're ready, we'll come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. that's it. so ditch the old way of selling your car, and say hello to the new way-- at carvana.
10:53 am
altria launching in the u.s. that heats tobacco instead of burning it an attempt to give users the same nicotine rush but with fewer toxins our own angelica is back to talk about what this means for altria, for the product, for juul, for vaping in general. do we call it vaping >> it's not vaping because it actually uses real tobacco e-cigarettes use liquid
10:54 am
nicotine it does deliver nicotine which is the addictive chemical in a cigarette but they don't contain tobacco. so altria is launching iqos. it will open another store later this month it will also have kiosks where you can buy the device in these stores, you can test the product. they show you what it looks like, how to use it, and walk you through it and there a person can buy the device they'll sell the heat sticks which are basically stubby cigarettes that go inside at 500 stores throughout the atlanta region but you can only buy this product at the stores. >> do they avoid a lot of the regulatory issues that are in play for cigarettes already? or are coming into play with vaping like age restrictions and flavors, you know, they're trying to ban the flavored vaping products? >> what makes this unique is it already went through the regulatory pathway so the fda reviewed the application for about two years
10:55 am
before it came to the u.s. with that it acquired strict marketing restrictions including where it could be sold, how it could be sold, how they could advertise. every time they want to market the product, they need to submit the plans to the fda 30 days in advance. every quarter they need to submit sales data and every year they need to submit even more data to the fda. the products, the heat sticks will be available in regular tobacco and two menthol variants otherwise there's no flavors like in e-cigarettes >> this is a key undertaking for philip morris internationally. and now altria in this partnership obviously not going to own or merge with altria as they've been talking about for some time abandoning those talks. but it's still important for philip morris international here in this country. >> exactly and the timing really couldn't be better. these companies have been working on this product since before they split in 2008. now you finally see it in the u.s. yes, you have it in 48 markets
10:56 am
inside of the u.s. that has been pretty successful so far but the u.s. so far is seen as a bellwether, how other regulatory agencies view this product how will they handle it and of course the u.s. is an important market. >> is it better for you healthwise is it considered a healthier alternative? >> so the fda is still researching the application to market this as safer than a cigarette. however, in clearing this device for sale, they did say their review found that the device produces fewer toxins. so that is one element of it but they still cannot say that it's safer than a cigarette. >> finally, nick teen delivotin different than an e-cigarette? >> you still get the nicotine. altria would say this is better for adults who like cigarettes e-cigarettes don't give you that same taste of tobacco. they are very different. mango and cigarettes are
10:57 am
different but this is actually tobacco. >> angelica, thank you watching e-cigarettes and the iqos space now when we come back, apple shares higher on boosting production. stocks up more than 40% for the year % danother 2toy. "squawk alley" starts in three minutes. make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good! high protein. low sugar. mmmm, birthday cake! pure protein. find our coupons in sunday's paper.
10:58 am
10:59 am
there are things we would change about work. and there are things we wouldn't. ♪ when work is worth it. work is worth it. work can be closer to home... pay more... make us proud. careerbuilder. work can work. find your work at careerbuilder.com announcer: fidelity is redefining value with zero account fees for brokerage accounts. and zero minimums to open an account. at fidelity those zeros really add up. ♪ maybe i'll win ♪ saved by zero
11:00 am
zbrmpl good morning it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪ good friday morning. markets obviously enjoying a nice surge to finish the week on a pretty solid jobs number investors say with thi

94 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on