>> want to comment, charles schwab i think it is too early. these are phenomenal companies they will eventually work. i wouldn't run into them quite yet. >> thanks for wauchling. "the exchange" begins now. >> thanks for watching, unemployment rate at the worst we'll go inside the great rate debate disney throws down the gauntlet comcast and at&t are about to spend millions to promote their own users. >> facebook may have just triggered a worldwide battle on

privacy. >> markets responding positively to that u.s. jobs report it was good but not great. the dow up 231 points being led by tech and health care. keep in mind, the dow is on pace for its worse week since mid-august looking at some of the winners, some of those chip stocks as well as apple. there is one underperformer. that is hp ink the new ceo unveiling plans to layoff hundreds of jobs, up to 60%. hp ink down 9% right now back to you. >> welcome to "the exchange. i'm kelly evans. getting to the top story payroll came in slightly below

estimates. the unemployment rate hitting a 50-year low. in just the last hour, we heard from boston fed president who dissented from the last rate cut and had this to say. >> i still have an open mind and we'll have more data i'll be quite attentive to anything happening with consumers changing their view. we'll have to see how consumers continue to react. there is still more data i don't think i should prejudge it at this point >> all comes back to the consumer, he says. bringing in bryce dody and chief officer at the independent a alliance group

how much is really going to change between now and a couple of weeks time when they have to make the call. where do you think this really leaves them? >> when i heard that interview, i heard he's looking at retail sales and inflation data it is interesting. it wasn't really spoken of, in the last year, household sector has shown 3.6 million jobs 1.4 million more than the payroll metrics. >> you are right we get unemployment from one and jobs data from another >> i've been front and center on

the fed pushing for rate cuts. i don't think feds should be cutting things this month. >> you don't >> i don't >> you've been fairly bearish. >> if the fed really wants to be data dependent, this would be an op tune time safe the rate cut for december >> do you agree? >> i'm amazed to hear that it seems like everyone is going cut, cut, cut, cut you do have to look at these numbers and scratch your head. normally, they'll be raising rates. the cross countries and the confusion. the surveys and how people feel, they are looking weak. then you see the actual numbers. the numbers were up very strong.

then you seehe jobs numbers. almost like we need some measurement between the manufacturing sector and the rest of the area and the country. >> which is why people were looking to the services report brice, i like your point larry said he likes to watch the hard data. he likes to know what is happening with the actual economy. >> you are right in the thick of this what is ur best guess as to what happens for example the ten-year from here we got really out of whack in august came back on the ten year yesterday, where do we go from here >> in august, we always seem to see the lows of summer in august there is this low activity we were expeing a little

uptick we saw three months in a row of rising and core cti. from an inflation perspective, we were getting nervous about how the 10 year could stay this low. this thing weighing it the liquidity level. the fed had to come in every single day since the saudis were bombed to do this special injection of cash. that is keeping everything down and is a big reason they'll cut in october about the only reason. they need to solve this liquidity problem first. >> chris, let me bring you in on that we have a couple of guests on this how do you position in the markets here it says you like technology,

health care and consumer d discretionary. >> that's true if you look the on monday, it was around 40% people believed we'd have a rate cut as of yesterday, it was up to 80%. today after the job's report not as bad as expected now around 77% the mack et is considering a cut. they are grappling with trade uncertainty. the fed was cutting rates in advance of when they normally would. i think they are trying to figure out how do they kauch for the fact that the rest of the world is slowing down. until this week, we didn't see that confidence spill over the market is expecting them to cut later this month in advance to the trade war we could have some type of a

breakthrough or truce, that would refuse that call and we could not get a rate cut all things being equal, i think we'll get a rate cut as far as consumer, health care, we are trying to look at areas we can't mention certain specific names looking at medical device manufacturers, software services >> i have to leave it there. joe, it is interesting maybe any other point, we'd be talking rate hikes, not cuts >> the problem is that the economy has not inflated as much you are right, the unemployment rate rate would expect rate hikes. the next shoe to drop would be slowing growth or a recession.

>> thank you to our guests today. we'll hear from cleveland fed president loetta mester at 4:00 on closing bell over at wework it has gone from being the best of times to possible the worst of them getting this reversal. >> we've talked about banks and brokers and both there was an all-hands meeting a source says the marketing department alone could be cutting hundreds of jobs in june, wework had 12,500 employees. the company could be facing a

crash crunch reporting that the we company is in talks for a loan to satave of that crunch. whoever it gets money from, it's clear it needs it. >> neumann getting turned down from co-op boards. here is what else is still ahead on "the exchange." . >> announcer: coming uew reports say iphone production is up with a jump up 42% this year, can you still buy ahead of this years earnings >> and elizabeth warren. and facebook not stopping them from launching products and

saying no to the attorney general. this is "the exchange" on cnbc

>> shares of apple are higher today on reports in a the company is increasing production josh has the details for us.

>> apple has a message for suppliers. increase production by the iphone 11 by as much as 10% or 8 million units to meet better than expected. telling a german publication that sales are off to a very strong start improved camera and longer life batteries. price was an issue too priced lower deutsche bank says year over year growth luooks more reasonable to us apple stock up 40%, is there still time to get in bringing in the managing

director good to see you you've had that price locked in a couple of months now on apple. what do you make of new reports on demand. do you think we'll see a super cycle here not a super cycle. expectations of the current generations of apple are arguably the lowest they've ever been against the back drop, the prospect of them ramping production is very good news you see the company as you pointed out did a much better job of slashing their prices their different versions of the device there may be a 10% price hike thanks to tariffs. low expectations and better

results off low expectations >> so ag has yet to be crystallized they'll stop supporting the iphone 6, right? >> it isn't 100% clear the next generation 5g will be available next year. they did discontinue their support for iphone 6s. that was contributing to the better than expected performance. >> josh, it is interesting here to look at the nikkei report they say the fall has been much busier than expected the company is pretty conservative when it talks about its guidance and numbers should we expect to hear more updates from suppliers that could help crystallize if this

demand is lifting off? >> usually when i'm on air talking the nikkei report, it's usually negative points. that's usually why we talk about these reports. here, we have a positive data point. we have seen other positive surveys too from analysts. one interesting one, the team at evercor. of the sample people, 40% said they were interested in buying a new phone. the team was in line to higher trends hoping to get more inside. >> what is built in in terms of phone sales. is that as important in terms of the service company? >> sure.

phone sales are still half of their revenue. i would say baked in are still modest expectations and declines from last year the good news is the companies have done an excellent job moving forward for apple as they move ahead in health care and financial services payments. you have low expectations here the stock is well positioned in our view >> thank you guys. coming up, microsoft, ge and air bnb have one thing in common they all use freelancers and the same company to find them. >> a look at elizabeth warren's llng cry boil down to two

words. the exchange is back in two.

>> welcome back to "the exchange" the dow is up 227 points that's a sharp contrast. let's drill down on what's happening here with bob at the new york stock ex change are we not saying the r word now anymore? >> not quite, kelly.

what we've seen today is enough for a slow melt up overall not all of this talk about a recession in 2020, that's the good news. did it cool the fed's rate cut again. most of the people i've talked to did not the fed still will likely cut this time. it is not weak enough to confirm the bear narrative right in the middle. what is next, how about trade talks. the expectations are pretty low for this meeting, there is a sense of urgency in china as well, after next week, we get to where i like to be in earnings reports looking at jp morgan,

johnson&john on the same day october 16, ibm and october 17 honeywell and more >> we look forward to it let's get to sue herrera for an update >> here is what's happening at this point on the white house lawn, president trump is issuing an ult mate um house speaker nancy pelosi threatening to hold white house documents. >> as everybody knows we've been treating unfairly, very different from anybody else, if you go over history, any aspect of life, you'll see how unfairly we've been tweeted >> the impeachment inquiry moving along michael atkinson arriving on capitol hill this morning and

his closed door temperature regarding the whistleblower complaint is expected to last all day. >> relatives to the victims of the paris terrorist attack welcome a new piece of art of a hand holding1 baoon-li tulip. the missing 12th tulip represents the lives lost in the 2015/2016 terror attacks >> just about half an hour to go >> we'll see you in about half an hour, 2:00 in the east and elsewhere. it is a jobs day we'll talk jobs in a different kind of light with a mckenzie partner who has looked at the effects of automation and robotization of the work place

not only region to region and state by state by occupation looking at the ones that might be the ones the most disrupted by automation and robots many of those jobs are low-skilled, repetitive-type jobs in food service or manufacturing. they tend to effect people who are lower on the pay sle and maybe on entry level positions >> i think there are big political implications too about the fears and what may come to pass >> we'll see gary player too >> one of the fittest men in the world. we'll have him live. >> thank you we'll see you then >> here is what is still ahead on "the exchange." >> announcer: coming up, disney

making a bold move in the streaming battle the threat of five below becoming six below isn't scaring investors. facebook issues and elizabeth warren gives billionaires her two cents. that's all ahead on "the exchange."

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>> welcome back. let's catch you up on a couple of stories that should be on your radar today here to catch you up, welcome, everybody. first up, the streaming wars are reaching a fever pitch and disney is making a stoeld move banning advertising from netflix across their networks. as comcast, our parent company reportedly planning to spend hundreds of millions to advise peacock and also adding for hbo max which has seasme street reruns what does this tell us >> i think it is really interesting that they seem to

have come to some sort of agreement in ad spending with comcast, at&t but not netflix. >> it is a smart move on disney's behalf. this netflix ban about a month away from the launch why should they allow their key competitor advertise >> on another met work, a movie trailer came up. they are not restraining advertising for competing production companies or studios. disney owns its own studio but other studios are allowed to advertise. i think it speaks to the fear factor now as we begin these

wars there was an interesting goal that would over a low tier at $6 air month that has adds because it would help them compete. if they did so, they could offer some reciprocity saying, okay, we'ltake your ads. that's the issue >> the streaming war is not going to be a zero sum game. everybody is going to make money. everybody is losing now because of the price war but for the image the other day, for all of the streaming services, if you bought all of them, it would be $62 a month. that's not prohibitive i think they are overreacting at this point >> apple is $4.99. diz sni 6.99

netflix is at the higher point if they came out with a lite version. >> interesting that netflix is the incumbent and these other businesses that were disrupted coming in to disrupt netflix >> good for the tv eco system too. let's talk some five below they warned they might have to bump prices above $5, which is what they are known for because of tariffs saying they still offer a fun shopping experience for the wloel family i've experienced this firsthand. this gets right to the heart that's a true moment this gets right to the heart of the question we are debating right now. whether at the fed or what have you, is the consumer going to hold up fine in this environment

despite all of the tariff anxiety or not >> i think they will as long as the jobs market is in place. 3.5% unemployment right now. they are still hiring but the firing aspect, they are not laying off many right now. to five below, i've never been to one >> you are missing out >> i did some research and looked at pictures >> this is a department store for kids a learning lesson for the bigger guys if you have a sharp focus in your brand and put the right materials on the shelves, they will come. >> and ultravalue. >> absolutely. you are talking about people tightening their belts this is not going to be the first place they stop shopping

at $5 or even if they go to $6 this does have something of a mo mote it's kind of amazon and e commerce prove you are not going to buy $5 things on line >> it is part of the experience. >> i'm not a believer in this. you clearly haven't been to the dollar bin at target >> it is clutter within a couple of days, it's in storage. >> that pin wheel is faded but we are still using it. all the beach stuff. heavily seasonally driven. before major holidays, you can go load up for your front poofrp >> seema, what a fun mom you are going to be some day >> my kids are getting nothing

>> this morning, morgan stanley upgraded snap. they didn't mention instagram's messaging thread maybe not the threat they feared but may become the reason washington leveed charges against facebook interesting timing with this today. >> i agree this is competition. i don't know that they are doing anything anti-competitive. they are doing something competitive by bringing on a service that happens to memic one of the main competitors in this space i have no problem for the service they've offered

otherwise. >> continuing to innovate. >> are they once again mimicking a company where they have had a long laundry list. >> this is one of the most sited things when it comes to facebook they say they copied stories from snap chat >> instagram in a way offered and now they are doing it with threads. >> we are talking about unconscious bias i saw the release, my first reaction was, they are trying to find another way to track me pointing out the timing of this launch around the concern facebook has been playing out.

>> have you been doing social awareness? defensive driving? >> she won't go to five below. >> facebook company is diving into a debate on whether to encrypt messages mark zuckerberg defending the decision despite the concerns into investigations into criminal investigations william barr asked them to hold off with a request signed by leaders from the uk, u.s. and australia. >> i do think this is a really tricky controversial one as a company, you want to make sure you are upholding privacy of your users. by not allowing some sort of back door or plan in place, you are in es ses becoming a largely

regulated largely nannie state >> their pitch is, we are not going to surveil you however, search and seizure still exists and should exist on line as in the real world. if there is an an zuks, sure we need to break in and know. >> i get the desire to make things more private. but you are not going to end the false misleading posts that can exist and the bad guys can communicate with each other. >> even more >> by the way, what makes america great is the rule of law. it is not like we are talking about china when you talk about the backdoor to encryption

there are still laws in place. >> the problem is, they want to are have it in place they want to say to the chinese, hey, we can protect you and saying to the american public they are not going to plok it. finally, there's a not in my backyard fight happening some of the largest supporters don't want ubernd way mow to testify these in their community. >> my late father-in-law was an aerospace engineer for many years. he never flew. he was afraid to fly >> did he know too much? >> i don't know. we were afraid to ask. >> the industry is confronted with this motion

for a while the idea is that the answer is self--driving cars this reality that it may come up mainstream there is a risk there. you've seen a lot of accidents that have taken place. whether gm, ford or all these new startups >> have you driven through silicon valley a lot of congestion here. >> this is an age old argument high-speed rail is another example. everybody wants it until they have to put tracks down in their back yord. >> the last thing i'll say, it is becoming a little bit of a class issue.

they've moved to arizona to test because they are allowed to. but they'll say, you don't care if someone gets killed by a car in arizona but you don't want it to happen to the kids on your block. >> i think it will come first to trucking and the long haul >> increasingly clear. we are going ton a field trip to five below and i will pay, $35 max. they use freelancers and a km called upwork to find them more discussion after this the light beer you've been waiting for has arrived.

corona premier.

has arrived. servicenow put our this changes everything. you're right sir... everything. no not everything, i mean you're still blatantly sucking up to me gary. brilliantly observed, sir. always three steps ahead. six steps ahead. sixteen. so many steps. you done a million steps ahead. servicenow. works for you. welcome back new survey finds freelance

workers earned $1 trillion last year that's 5% of our gdp and found 57 million americans participating in the freelance economy. those workers consider it a long-term career option. welcome, you are well operating just about a year. after today's job's report what do you think freelansing can tell us about the jobs report today? >> it is really the same there are numbers in the job report were a little lower but nonetheless quite strong it means these workers have a choice, particularly highly skilled people increasingly, millennials and highly skilled workers have a choice >> what is the difference

between freelancers and gig workers. >> most want to be called self-employed. they don't want to be called gig workers. >> when we talk the gig economy, we think uber. when we are talking freelancers, we are talking vastly different kinds of industries. >> the biggest ones tend to be around design and software development. consulting legal work those types of things. this is really attractive to those people who want to work from home. the major down side, it doesn't come with health care benefits employers are highing those instead of full-time workers

how do those people get health benefits >> people charge more as freelancers than as full time employees. they have to cover for benefits. there are tax benefits in some cases, they pay less taxes as a result. more are paying for their own benefits they are increasingly politically active the number one thing they want is affordable health care. >> that makes sense. the number of freelancers hasn't grown that much. it just sounds like it is going to be a piece of the market. it grew the first four years and the last couple of years have

flatenned out a bit. a portion that says i'm doing this by necessity. given that state, those freelancers have existed in the workforce. they say this as a permanent choice even for a generational shift. baby boomers are less likely more millennials and genz are likely that will continue to drive those numbers up and benefit those platforms as a result. >> it will continue to keep health care as the number one issue. thank you for joining me the ce observe of upwork elizabeth warren boiling

down her wealth plan boiling it down to two cents on every dollar above $50 million >> the dow is up 241 points. we are back in two ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ there are things we would change about work. and there are things we wouldn't. ♪ when work is worth it. work is worth it. work can be closer to home... pay more... make us proud. careerbuilder. work can work. find your work at careerbuilder.com

the democrat presidential candidates they may have an ally in sales force ceo. he had this to say about the future >> i really strongly believe that capitalism as we know it is dead we're going to see a new kind of capitalism it's going to emerge is not the millton friedman capitalism that it's just about making money >> landscape could change for the wealthiest american. she is touting her phrase. robert frank has more on the story. >> the two words and the two coins that could reshape the elections and the economy. >> a two cent tax. >> you got to pitch in two cents. >> a two cent wealth tax

>> yes that is a two cent tax >> two cent. that's become the rallying cry for warren's growing rank of supporters referring to her wealth tax it would be an annual tax of 2% on wealth over $50 million this plan is more much complicated and costly it would raise over $200 billion a year taxpayers would have to estimate the current value of everything from cars and real estate to art and companies and most european countries have abandoned wealth taxes because they raise less than expected revenue. >> i'm doing the math, robert. 2% on $50 million is -- >> 2% of every dollar over $50 million. you keep your first 50 million and then it's two cents of every dollar above that unless you're a billionaire which three cents every dollar above the billion >> 2% of 50 million is a million

tl dollars. for every marginal million dollars over that amount >> exactly it's only 70,000 families that are affected the reason this is so popular is because unless you're worth $50 million, of course you're going to support it. let someone else pay taxes >> we'll be seeing a lot of these and a lot of penny loafers will be the next fashion trend on the warren campaign trail thanks very much oil prices dropping about 6% this week as crude stockpiles rise we'll get a read on the oil patch from an industry insider these exchange will be right back hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with

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welcome back crude is trying to avoid its nineth straight day of losses. it's lost 10% in that time combine that with the latest job reports showing manufacturing jobs could the energy patch be the next shoe to drop. i'm joined by the president and ceo of tejas products in hous n houston. thank you for joining me >> thank you very much >> how bad is it in terms of the

change in activity all of a sudden and what's -- i see you're sitting here there's sort of a credit crunch like we saw during the financial crisis going on now >> it's really difficult and really the basis for a lot of this is unintended consequences of well intentioned government policies in 2017, we went into a policy where we wanted to curtail the foreign pipe and they mixed the system with 25% tariffs and quotas the simpler solution would have been let's have quotas on everybody. everybody got to cut their foreign imports or exports to this country by 30% and then give a chance to the domestic industry to have a percentage market share instead of continuously fighting over a market where they have an

advantage to their safety laws, environmental laws, wages, et cetera the intent was good and it really helped a lot with the steel melting companies but it was very -- it was making things very difficult for the companies downstream >> how much would you say that and i'm assuming it sounds like business was slow or gotten more challenging. how much of that is due to fewer oil rigs because the oil prices dropped? >> the price in the oil has been too quick this week. we lost 6% to really have much of an impact what we're looking at and i think it's very good for the united states. it's not very good for our business but to me it's incredible what the gas companies have accomplished to

make america energy independent in such a short time >> absolutely. >> it's good that saudi arabia gets impacted by and knock down their 50% infrastructure in a short time we don't have to even think about having to go and defend the old supply i think it's good to have america being energy independent. >> what would turn business around at this point for you >> we're competing now with people liquid daating inventory because a lot of the specklators saw the pipe was going to go up by 25% they bought ahead. what they bought was the product that is least impacted by changes in the industry which is tubing right now we're competing with tubing prices that are not

sustainable because of the oversupply >> absely. makes sense. thank you for joining us keep us posted, please >> okay. thank you very much. >> that does it for the exchange i'll join tyler and melissa for "power lunch". we'll see you over here in a moment welcome everybody. here is what's new at 2:00 for you on a friday power lunch. a wild week on wall street jobs are on the rise in the u.s. but so are the robots. we'll tell you which areas of the job market, which sectors of the employment picture are the most vulnerable to automation. wall street betting on an iphone surprise as a new report says apple is telling suppliers to ramp up production and fast tech investor is here to tell us what it could mean for the stock of apple "power lunch" starts