positive side than the negative. but i think the market is quit trying to handicap it in a precise way because it's been burned so many times trying to figure out the next step that's why i feel like again you can rest easy a deal, positive but not -- >> does it for us on "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlook new york city's times square this is "fast money. i'm melissa lep. traders are tim seert process process carter werth dan nathan and guy adami back from the heartland. tonight on fast, buckle up, because the transports could signal a rocky road ahead. we'll tell you how to navigate it plus the chart knocking the socks off the chart master this week we'll tell what you it is. and disney goes mean girls on net friction why it's telling thestreaming giant you can't sit with us. we begin with the whacky week on wall street you'll the strive, panic, for what? nothing. markets are rallying to finish

the we can basically where we started the whole week can be summed in one emoji, the giant shrug with this week in the books set sights on the week ahead look at all the stuff coming your way look carefully at this calendar. a power packed week ahead. so how are you setting yourself up. >> what's the first one? national chocolate cover pretzel day. >> the calendar was a little light on monday. so we filled if out with that day which could be big for some. >> glad people were paying attention. >> guy, how do you -- >> how do we become a society where every day is a day offing. >> it's all the lobbying. >> is that it. >> i think people boy buy knows things. >> national chocolate covered pretzel day. >> i got a big shrug. >> what do you make of next week glad you asked, mel. it's great to be back by the way. thank you. i'm still -- listen, i'm still bearish. i know you feel good coming off

friday when the market rallies 400 dow points after reversal. everything feeling good. but still of the belief that there is significant headwinds and the vix which plateaued earlier this week north of 21 back to 17 is still tovi cheap in the environment although today feels good and red yesterday's reversal feels good preponderates continue lower. i think that's a warning sign. for those with the optimistic view that some magic deal is coming out of the u.s. and chinese, i still think it's wishful thinking. >> i don't think many people expect a deal. >> president trump keeps saying you know. >> maybe tariffs will be delayed, the tariffs that will hit the u.s. consumer. >> i don't know if half of that 300 billion announced on august 1st delayed until december 15th is something weighing on the markets here to me, if that was kind of pushed out i don't think it's something we see the market just lift it is a headwind that we can look out and say, put your finger on. i'll say in about the magic deal like you just mentioned, whatever deal that just has to

do with buying soybean or pork to focus on the trade deficit. i don't think it's something you want to buy. it's something to sell if you look at the data, pmis we have seen. china is stabilizing while the u.s. took a leg lower. to me the whole notion that if you were buying u.s. stocks because you think we could did he couple from em or china i don't think there is decoupling that groebl growth is slowing and we are watching up a little bit. >> it was a defensive week yes we recovered today but if you look at sector by sectorutilities up on the week it's reits, staples, health care and everything else is down. tech pulled off a gain on the week but tech in way is defensive we know mid-cap, bad week, small cap bad week preponderates saying a certain thing you can recover but did you undo the damage. >> what did you want to see to undo the damage? we saw a reassumption of the groups that had been leading we saw the rotation to value

we saw value stocks lead us out of the midweek rut. >> value, remember, the initial move in value let's say six, seven weeks ago and then the incredible giveback, you still made no progress on the so-called value recovery trade. >> being the only reasonably constructive person on this desk right now for the markets, i feel the need to stand in the pocket right now. >> the ah. >> pocket. >> we did in the short run recover. the s&p back above the 50 barely this is arguably still dsh thshs the line in the sand if you think about the data we had this week, we had very poor services p.mi. frankly that's the surprise of the week, if you think about we went into the number saying, hey a month ago we had terrible manufacturing data but services pulled us out. then we go to 80% of the u.s. economy learning that services are 2.5 points weaker. is the rest of the world stabilize sng you talk about the

chinese data you're right dan at least we had the pmi up a point in acceleration mode it's above 50. and the state one was just around 50. but looking at the week over week numbers there is no question that the u.s. data took a leg down this we can looking at payroll numbers this morning on the headline as much as you want to breathe a sigh of relief and in terms of the that you upward revisions and a number coming in more or less in line to net it out at even, hourly earnings were down and if you look at the three to six month average down about 100 jobs to where we were in 2018 on the private mechanic it's hard to say the u.s. is moving higher. what i think it's all about is positioning and expectations and right now i don't think the market has any >> so what was behind this 1.4% rally do you think, today? was it the jobs number was weak. >> goldilocksic. >> too weak. >> injury it's a combination of a little enthusiasm about trade and rates are going lower then

the teena thing process process, no alternative. >> you have been constructive and there is no reason to say the bottom is falling out here my point -- i think i've been consistent for like a year now when we get back up to the prior highs and make a new high it's never been in 20 months an opportunity where you can say i'm going all in this is a great opportunity to play for the breakout. we have fallen every time. four or five times now, carter >> the market is pretending to make new highs as the internal sector by sector is not corroborating. >> i'm saying you can be constructive all want, trade the pullbacks from the highs and there's within great trading opportunities but the mechanic made little progress going all the way back to december 22nd, 2017, when they passed that tax cut. that was the thing, the trump trade. we're up what 20 oh points in the s&p 500 since then going sideways since then. >> as cart other mentioned the other day every pullback has a has been a trading opportunity

to new highs except for the last when we failed to take to new highs. >> had the quick plunge and the snapback think about the bad week for the bkx, bad week for smp industrials. transports it's back to the same thing. it's not confirmed about by the things you want to confirm zbloopt we're going to have the great josh lipton on but don't underestimate the apple news >> talk apple before we need t talk apple. >> but to answer the question, that is a huge part -- to illustrate why today. >> just get lipton in here. >> why it rallied the way it did it's important in context to bring it up and not wait 11 or so minutes with that said if you said, guy, the dow is up 380 points on friday, what's the bond market going to do? i said, well melissa given the fact we've had a nice rally and yields went lower. i think the bond market sells off in a meaningful way.

rung rong the tlt pushing up against 146 and threatening all-time highs preponderates -- the bond market is way too volatile number one and i think rates going lower is not as bullish as the market would like to think. >> we saw wild swings on wall street this week one chart stood out to carter. so why don't you head over to the plasma and break it down. >> one chart could be three or two but let's go with one. it's a tu-panel chart. here it is so the life blood of the system financials and then within financials, forget about insurance and broker dealer. but big heavy banks. the kbw bank index, names citi jp morgan, wells fargo and others and what is remarkable -- because it speaks to frankly not the importance of me shall did dsh i'm nobody, the importance of technicals. a stock a currency, commodity, every time it's coming up to this it's failed, failed, failed, failed

i mean literally touched that line sometimes can you draw circles but the point is every time. is that the dcf, that the ebidta collective peg ratio of stocks no no it's machines and clarities and technicals here even more unbelievable look at the performance on a relative basis. the bottom panel is the bkx relative to s&p. it has touched this line -- i'll do it with a red arrow here failed, failed, failed and got up here and has failed again we're below where we were from the trump bump, the election so much hinges on the cyclical trade, the value trade is a trap and i don't see anything that's changed. and i think this chart speaks to that as much as anything >> the value trade has become a trap, tim? >> well, the value trade got a fresh endorsement six weeks ago when we saw the violent rotation and banks were a major beneficiary. as we talked about the yesterday

a's show when you had a two-day move in banks taking 5% out of the banking trade and left you back where you were. in the last two days iefrpg you've taken half of the move back looking at banks i do think there is a valuation argument in favor therefore i think they can be more constructive there is no defying what carter talked about in erms of the kbw which has given more pure bank expose with your be the xlf dan talks about not being the pure play because you have berkshire ababand blackstone certainly in blackstone you have the outperformer >> yeah. >> but banks in the environment where yields go lower, are coming up under pressure even though the yield curve steepened from in the last couple days from the short end. >> i would agree citi on october 15th war was carter no. >> the plasma. >> the mart board did the amazing job. but we often go there to do something we like to call the. >> the power pitch. >> the power pitch and so tim's point we actually

power pitched a bank a kwhiel back saying maybe the bond market has gotten ahead of itself maybe at 65 to 70% of tangible book citi is cheap. about but these are trading vehicles yes it bounced today but i think banks, the tranltry is lower and continue that way. >> that was a great power pitch from trading perspective. >> thank you, dan. >> the sentiment was bad. >> how do you feel we completely change the name. >> very frustrated let it go it's friday. >> talking about two weeks ago when jp morgan made the all-time high it's the only bank in the northern hemisphere that did that what did it do went from 121 to the new high, down to 110 yesterday morning like that. to me that's just the failed breakout and the rest of the money center haves never made a new -- they haven't made a new high just trending down look at morgan and goldman, look like disasters thp they look

like different businesses in the next cycle can you buy these all day for capital return and value but they're just -- >> in sounds like one of the moments where you're going to tell me jp morgan is the worst chart you have seen. i look at the chart, the stock has done nothing but hasn't been a devastation. it's actually traded in a range the company giving you record prrds profits pan actually. >> mel is sticking up for me i say every time it's town that's the way one you buy and sell everything else. because it seems. >> it's the best in class. but it has not provided any return and adjusted for risk in beta. it's a disaster of a pick relative to other choices in the equity market. >> well wrel active to staples and defensive. you are right on a risk adjusted return basis we have seen a fair amount of volatility a lot of investors watching the show are not trading in and out of the market. they want companies with good balance sheets and companies that are improving earnings. >> make a point and maybe split them up it's taken ten years for the companies to delever to get

to where we are and return the cash and they're massively outperforming the market if we are late cycle and lates o rates going to zpr. >> who is under performing the mathematic. >> massively under parmg. >> i see jp morgan as sideways as s&p. >> hold on you just saw it on the plasma. >> he showed you what were you doing picking your nose or something? here is the deal if we. >> we got to get out of here. >> seriously. >> there it is. >> this late cycle why buy banks even for a long-term investment? you were going. >> why don't you sell everything guys are trying to tell me banks are going out of business. i'm telling you the charts aren't that bad process. also tell that you jp morgan continues to report record profits and giving more capital back and i feel comfortable. >> why don't investors appreciate it. >> all right, okay. >> done what a lot of others have done. >> boys will be boys >> i hate that expression actually, and you guys -- i never said anything about going out of business.

don't drag me into the mud. >> sorry, bro. >> coming up the conversation the traders just can't wait to tackle apple rallying today on reports the company is ramping up iphone production will trade the big move plus disney taking the fight to netflix if the latest episode of the streaming wars we tell you if if the mouse house can keep the streaming king down refa meyrit teyork city, much mo "ston" ghafr this your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

apple bouncinged to on a report the company ramps up iphone production. josh lipton has the latest from san francisco. hey, josh. >> melissa, for once the rumors around the iphone are positive often reports suggest lagging demand but this time with expectations muted, rumor has it the new iphones could be more popular than many expectwood the nikkei reporting that apple told suppliers to increase production of the new iphone 11 lineup by as much as 10% or 8 million units to meet better than expected demand. the rise in orders is apparently driven by the lowest end iphone 11 and iphone 11 pro with the pro max orders having been slightly revised down. ceo tim took himself told a german publication just this

week that sales were off to a very strong start, in his words though he didn't disclose specific figures the new iphones boast a faster processer longer lasting batteries, improved camera system, the iphone 11, the successor to the 10 r was priced $50 lower as $699. deutsche bank analysts year over year growth in iphone revenues looks increasingly more reasonable if this report proves true investors of course have piloted in apple has soared more than 40% this year. questions remain about demand. for example, in china huawei already offers a 5g hand set other chinese investors will soon launch devicestoo patrick morehead says competition from the chinese companies offering 5g smartphones could impact demand for the new iphone 11 lineup melissa, back to you. >> all right, josh, thank you. josh lipton let's trade apple here, tim. >> joon-pyo morgan was out there talking about the iphone

shipments could be higher. this was upgrade this is a chart guys everybody thought broke down it may be going to get the new highs we'll see the jury is out. but i think when you talk about the company people don't have necessarily -- they have not increased expectations and shipments any time recently. meanwhile, the refresh cycle, new phone cycle cycle in the 5g for next year it could be a catalyst for a company that granted what we've been saying the catalyst has been has been service related and capital markets related. and i think those are also reasons to own the stock. >> that chart looks nice, carter >> good. in fact we did a week ago. >> hold on so carter found a stock he like, dan can we. >> i like -- >> how is that chart. >> listen, i think you get back to that prior high from september when it was 233. it had a 40% peak to trough decline in three plonts. guys the largest market cap company on the world losing $4,007 billion. >> we're talking about the chart right now. >> hold on tim you. >> i'm listening to you.

>> what are you talking. >> what did we hear them talk about, talked about china. you know what the market share in china is? 6.5% they're number five behind names you heard of ciao ni and opo if china is not coming back for them north america is saturated on the most. >> you're a seller >> i'm not buying it here to get to all-time highs. >> you're selling. >> the chart is good we approach that high four months ago we reproach it reproach it again and then how about a would you rather. >> oh. >> would you rather have this. >> would you rather. >> or the s&p. >> i'd rather str in. >> the apnea. >> i'd rather have this. >> that's what makes the market i guess. >> remember i always like to say sometime i'm a participant sometimes i'm a viewer i find myself loving what's happening here. >> participate. >> you'll participate. >> i'll pushback a little on tim who he feels -- tim feels as if he is lone wolf out there the millennia squigy. >> the lone wolf from bachelor

party. >> talk bag lenny and squigy >> lenny and squigy lenny was the lone wolf and now tim feels like lenny i'll be the squigy right now. >> i do not feel luke lenny. or shirl or lavern. >> and apple re-testing the high. >> the big ragu. >> and here we are right now, 228 what do you apple right now? the answer is i would be taking profits. i'd go against carter. i'd be going against tim and for some reason after josh spoke, bee kwichd came in my head why is that, tim. >> because agnes morehead was she stole every episode she was in. >> i don't even want to. >> enough for tangants for now read more about apple on the website. cnbc.com life at the market site times square much more "fast money" coming up next >> disney ripping a page out of the mean girls playbook. what the media giant said to

netflix that's getting a lot of buzz and later a rocky road ahead, what's next for the transports after they closed out one of their worst weeks of the year? stick with us. more "fast money" right after this the world is built for you. so why isn't it all about you when it comes to your money? so. what's on your mind? we are a 97-year-old firm built for right now. edward jones. it's time for investing to feel individual.

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♪ ♪ ♪ from battered to bounceback, the message of the markets to early traders and eye on upcoming trade talks squawk on the street, 9:00 a.m. monday >> well back to "fast money. >> what's going on here tonight disney taking a page out of the mean girls playbook. telling netflix, you can't sit with us. disney is banning netflix from advertising on all tv platforms, except for espn. it comes about a month before disney plus launches is this a big blow to netflix? guy? >> it's a big blow to netflix but it did netflix do what it

needed to technically? yes. the reason why netflix traded down to basically the 250 level we flagged is for everything we are talking about now. is this now the time to sell or is the news out now the time to buy? i would you get long netflix against the recent low which if memory serves was around 252 the reason netflix sold off as precipitously as it has is because of rot zbloort and there was similar web with data show showing international users were bouncing back. that was a source of the problem in the last quarter. >> we talked about that last night. as international subs i think the more important part -- because i think domestic subs you run into saturation. but the fact that these guys are beginning to have a little bit por -- i don't know in this is acrimonious, a replace that was at one point strategic and complementary and we started to see whether it was marvel pulled

become or different properties it's not easier for netflix to operate with the big content producers. back to the stock guy wants to talk about the clarity i want to talk about a market no longer rewarding stocks that don't make money i think netflix is at least near the top of the list. it's very difficult for me to see this is a turn and this is going lower. >> what's interesting about the announcesment as it relates to advertising netflix spent $1.8 billion advertising last year to gain subs and promote the movies that they actually -- like they have a totally different model how they get things out i think this is not a great announcement for them strategically how they put the content out there. >> final trade time, tim. >> well, a lot of times spent on apple even though guy started talking about too early in the show i like it relative to the s&p and i like it on a breakout, apple. >> carter. >> stock poised to pop proof point. breakout. >> poof. >> i think you sell the banks into that earnings season. i don't think they have a great outlook for q 4 kbe sell it.

>> i mentioned i was in the heartland. >> sure. >> one thing. >> sure. >> itches in witch tau, kansas honest to god, some of the nicest people i met. >> i hope big fans of the show. il chicago americaen te exchange. >> "options action" coming up next stay tuned tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? tell him we need this merger. it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network according to america's biggest test. now with 5g evolution. the first step to 5g. more for your thing.

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