we have to go a bit early. the fed minutes are coming up at the top of the hour. power lunch has them welcome to power lunch, let's get a check on the markets as we're just moments away from the minutes of the last federal reserve eeting this is just about four points off the session. we have the minutes breaking right now. >> melissa, the minutes show the fed is divided not just over the september rate cut, but how to talk about the path of policy going-forward. during the meeting, a few officials argued that the market appears to be factoring in more rate cuts than they believe appropriate. they said it could become necessary for the committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations and policy makers expectations. several participants urged jay powell to provide more clarity about when this period of weak calibration could likely come to an end now, in the press conference after the meeting and during a speech this week, powell has

repeatedly pointed to the period during the late 1990s, when the fed cut rates multiple times at consecutive meetings, but not for an extended period of time he said that experience was successful but, of course, policy is not on a preset course. on the other hand a couple officials at the meeting and in the minutes, argued for a bigger rate cut of 50 basis points. and possibly even guidance now, throughout the meeting, there were references to trade tensions and there was this gnawing concern that the uncertainty has been weighing on business investment and manufacturing, could lead to a slowdown in hiring, and that could ultimately end up hitting the consumer on this volatility and the repo markets. the fed had a discussion about that, there were staff presentations about it, but the fed ultimately just agreed on the need to discuss the appropriate level of reserves in the future back over to you >> thank you very much

>> essentially we are unchanged right now, still up 27 points. bank stocks move on these unchanged, the kbe which is the bank index unchanged also essentially unchanged on the day, the big issue for the markets is that this is a different moment than the fed minutes -- the time that actually happened. we have weaker ism survey. i think a lot of people feel the markets change was a lot different than when the last fed minutes came out the question is, i didn't quite hear whether that was a significant shift at all there they're treating this as a status quo report. the key is 7 5% chance of a rate

cut in the next month, and about 50 % in december >> if we start out with the dollar index, the strength in the dollar has been a big issue. not much movement there, we were down a couple ticks in the dollar index we're back to about where we started. they had a one basis point pop they're up to 147, now back at 145. tenl years, they hugged at 158 and drifted a little bit should they close here those will be one week high yield closes we're getting an upward lift if you look at the markets look at what was in those minutes, that is going to have a lot of articles written tonight.

the fact that they're having this discussion about the markets always wanting more at a time where you probably shouldn't doll out more rate cuts is the correct discussion at the right time, i think that is the story in the minutes. >> tyler, back to you. >> we'll talk about that right now. tom corselli is with rbc capital markets. and also the coo of river shares what do you think of what rick just said about whether the fed should be cutting as it is the market wants it. should we be -- should the fed feed the market? >> the reality is, the market has been winning the market continues to get what it wants i think one of the other reporters noted that only seven members are looking for cuts i think you have to ask, where

are the voters, i would tell you the voters are -- the seven people looking for cuts are probably all voters. i think the market's going to get what they want the voters are going to get what they want. i think at this point i don't think it matters if they cut after the october meeting. >> you think they will cut in october? >> kevin, you're smiling, you're nodding. >> yes, i think they're going to cut in october the fed has been letting the markets lead the way for the last three meetings. and i think that this one is no different when you look at fed funds futures. they're saying, you know, it's 75, 8 0% chance of the cut in october. and i think that that's going to happen >> some would say the markets have been leading for the past year the market has been right.

would you concede that >> yes the market has been right. the fed is going to have to stand on irts own two feet and say, enough is enough. if we keep cutting, what is going to happen when things go south we're not going to have any dry powder and powell said yesterday that negative rates was not part of their toolbox. where do we go, what are we going to use >> does the economy warrant more rate cuts right now? >> i think what we have to ask ourselves is, is it hurting? >> is what hurting >> cutting rates is cutting rates going to hurt in some way. if we don't need cuts by cutting or setting ourselves up down the road the short answer is, probably not.

i think we can make the market for several years down the road. you could create one of these imbalan imbalances so many things would have to happen for that dynamic to play out. for the feds perspective, they view this as a low cost way of helping the market embrace let me be clear, i'll tell you what the fed is thinking on this short answer to your question. i don't believe the backdrop warrants cutting rates the environment where the market is demanding this, you run the risk of cry ating this market dislocation. then sure, that's what the fed is thinking right now. i hate that approach, lit me be clear. >> it sounds like you're worried if we're in some sort of slowdown or recession, the fed won't have the dry powder to fight it off, so that downturn could be deeper and longer because we can't bank on help

from the fed >> i -- that's exactly what i'm thinking, and so -- that's why i -- when i look at where we are, you're at a 50 year low on unemira unemirate. the fed has met that mandate inflation is below their 2% target the fed has created a third mandate. that is to worry about global growth that's not part of global growth in thinking about global growth, i understand while the fed is making these cuts, at the same time, they have to be careful that we don't go too far because the toolbox will be empty. >> just to that point. let's be clear the fed is going to roll into more qe. when things do deteriorate in ernest they're going to go from whatever cuts they have left, to running into an over -- that's where we are at this point

>>. >> i think the yield curve is going nowhere. rates will stay where they are for the foreseeable future >> we have to leave it there. wall street is waiting on a possible trade deal this week, as meetings are set toe resume tomorrow china might be open to a partial or skinny deal on trade, if the u.s. holds addition altar is, they could be willing to buy more agriculture products including soybeans eager to get your two cents on this one, john some people think we're too pessimistic, and others not pessimistic enough >> i don't think there's much they can get done this week, given the bullets flying around with black list and the like, they can certainly agree to buy each other's stuff they buy our soybeans, i buy a couple i watches

they're not going to get the main issues accomplished, the discussion has moved back toward how do we stop china from getting big, rather than, how do we solve the trade war very difficult situation >> when you say it's moved to how do we stop china from getting big, is that related to tariffs? if this is a goal of the presidents what does that mean for the imposition of more tariffs, the current levels we're seeing now and the current level of our economy. >> the chinese would hope to do some kind of a small agreement in order to put those off for a time more. bracicly, in china, you look a long way down the road they're watching the clock if they can get something done here, that will be good for xi while he's here this week.

we're not going to get the forms we're looking for. asking them to change the way they run their economy is like them coming here and saying, i'd like you to break up the tennessee valley authority it's really not in line with what we do >> why do you say they're looking to come away with something -- the chinese are this week, how much bargaining power do they have they have all the cards and we have none. >> nobody's got any cards at this point, the economy is slowing down everywhere in the world, including here, including in china i think there's a certain pressure on the political leaders on both sides to do something, that will be viewed as progress. they could pull a baby rabb ott out of the hat the meet of the deal is much more serious than that there's purchases, intellectual property could get something done not today, not this week, the

support is there on both sides to do that what's not there is support for them to stop supporting their state owned companies and which is basically their welfare system and to shut down their new technology efforts, huawei's 5g, et cetera, that's their growth plan. that's how they plan to go from being an assembler of someone else's products to a creator of their own product. they're not going to give that up >> do you sense any willingness to postpone or lift or otherwise abrigate the tariffs that have been put in place or postpone the ones that are planned? do you think that -- the president is willing to do that? >> there are really three different positions there, there's a free market group of advisers a neo-con group of advisers. >> who

>> the most important is kudlow. in the shadows you see mr. bannon there, and then there's mr. trump who listens to one, and then the other, and tweets out whatever's on his mind the instability of our positions on this is hurting our ability to get anyone to agree to anything because the rules might change next week. deals ought to be done in private in quiet, not on social media. >> well, there's certainly -- there couldn't be more coverage of the one this week, so i don't know what that -- if that's a great sign john, thanks very much for joining us john rutledge. coming up, the tensions between the u.s. and china, playing out on the court for the nba with the preseason kicking off with china as it deals with continued fallout from the hong kong tweet shares of roku are surging the user base could triple in the next three years

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check out shares of roku folk an upgrade from quarry. quarry estimating the user base could triple by 2022 as more and more streaming services became available. tim dolan at mccory. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> it looks according to your note that there are a few levers how you get to that note by 2020 that is the integration into smart t skr operating systems. how should we think about that and does that further their market share here in the united states specifically? >> well, roku's device growth is a matter of two things, as i think of it, one is the sticks or the boxes, that we're accustomed too, and the other is the integrations with the smart tv's, they've had good success in the u.s. over the last few years, with that growth. and now as they are basically

launching internationally, we don't break down the prices, but they'll both be very important drivers for them to add users into 2020 and beyond >> doesn't it matter the mix, i would think an integration would be more profitable than say the hardware >> we don't know, they certainly don't break it out in anyway i would say both methods are important growth drivers they announced a deal with high sense already. we sense there will be more to come they've been successful with a number of oem's to date. and assume they can do the same abroad you. >> think the trajectory could be that of netflix. why is that when we have limited information about roku's plans >> the few things we've done is to look at the penetration rates for connected tv devices, the

devices themselves, and then the oem interest gralgss, we believe that number outside the u.s. is only about 20% of households, versus 70% in the u.s. we assume that will continue to grow internationally perhaps celebrate from here, as you can roku and amazon fire expanding rapidly. that's an important driver of it i wouldn't want to forget as well, a big part of the growth story is the advertising ecosystem that roku builds on advertising that's kbilt on top of that >> could roku be an attract irv target for one of these bigger players? >>. >> i suppose it's always possible one advantage is that roku has had independence all this time there's no conflicts in terms of getting on to devices, i think that's been something that's helped them all of this time

they've done a good job creating and defining the category in the u.s. thus far, i don't think that's necessarily the plan. could be in the cards, but it's not the plan >> does your bullish case get burnish get hurt by the fact that there are so many players or does that not matter. >> not so much offering new streaming services behind the positive view here, the rise of new streaming services like disney plus and others will only encourage more consumers to watch on connected devices. some of those are not necessarily ads supported. they will engender a more roe bust ecosystem in general. and on these ecosystems, you'll have a lot of the ads, hulu and various other ads supported. consumers will watch more and more of those. pluto tv's have been supportive. just the rise of this in general

will encourage more and more consumption for those that are supported. >> tim, thanks so much for your time procedure it shares of johnson & johnson are falling after a jury decision to award $8 billion to the plaintiff in a lawsuit involving its anti-psychotic drug those details are coming up. apple creeping back to its all time high. what's driving the moves, and whether there's still time to get in that'sex nt.

welcome back to power lunch. i'm mike santolli at the new york stock exchange. apple shares sitting pretty high the stock raises to $260 and the company was planning new hardware releases, including smart glasses for 2020

jc, it's been an impressive march back toward the old highs for apple. does it appear stretched to you, what's the smart way to play the stock? >> longer term, this is one of the best stocks out there. far outpacing the s&p above every major moving average longer term, the target is constructive tactically, we are a little concerned. short term, apple's slightly over bought. and over bought as it's approaching the 2018 highs we have resistance, that's not the best recipe for a stock that's ready to break out. i would like to see the stock hold back a little bit 215 is a great area. that's where horizontal chart support is i think that's the area that will add to an existing position at that level, i think apple

will be in much better technical shape to break out and make all time highs >> all right, so maybe 5% pull back might do it, michael, from a fundamental basis, not a whole lot has changed, obviously you got some pretty good reports on the iphone 11 release. >> they continue to be the most innovative company in this technological revolution that we're living through it's a historic revolution the iphone 11 sales are better than expected. they're coming out with the 5g phone in 20 20 they dominate the market share in all the four major wireless networks they have multiple devices in many households across the country. what makes them the most attractive they're a hardware company as well as a services company, that services side of the business is what's going to drive the revenues and the earnings. and why they're trading at 17 times earnings with a 1.3% dividend yield >> still cheap, not as cheap as

it used to be, right >> you're going to look back in 18 months, it's going to be cheap right now. >> all right thanks, guys, jc and michael thank you for joining me on trading nation head to our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation melissa back to you. ahead on power lunch crisis on the court. the nba facing more backlash in both the u.s. and china, over tweets regarding hong kong the league's commissioner, did he mishandle the situation johnen and johnson hit with an $8 billion fine over it's anti-psychotic drug. up in smoke, as calls heat up. all that and much more when power lunch returns. many people say don't fight the fed, but that doesn't mean you have to fear the fed if you're a long term investor, don't led a fed investment

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welcome back, everyone, i'm sue herera speaking at a town hall in new hampshire moments ago, former vice president joe biden for the first time called for donald trump to be impeached. over trump's public calls for ukraine to investigate the biden family >> in full view of the world and the american people, donald trump is violating his oath of office betray this nation and committed impeachable acts >> school officials in north carolina are recalling all of that district's 20,000 chrome books after one of the devices began smoldering in a third grade classroom. eating healthier, may help young adults battle depression that's a findsing from a just released study that looked at nearly 80 students it's a small study, those with a better diet had improved moods and lower anxiety.

and they probably weren't hungry either, which always helps >> thank you, sue. let's take a check of the markets right now, it doesn't look like we're making an attempt at session highs at this point. the nasdaq doing the best of the major three, up 1.1%. >> let's take a look at some of the power movers today a raymond james calling stock a strong buy, it's up 67% this year lion's gate is jumping as it considers splitting off its stars premium cable channel into a separate company levi is looking a bit stretched, the stock falling despite a

fourth quarter earnings beat shares are down about 6%, but they're hovering just around the $17 ipo. >> the controversy deepened today after holding signs and shouting support for hong kong this as adam silver is china eunice has been following the story from the uk. >> he's not receiving the original warm welcome the commissioners have received in the past the houston rockets general manager tweeting his support in hong kong. silver had said that the nba wouldn't regulate what players, employees, and team owners say, the state media has been in a

full tirade comparing what it describes as the hong kong riots to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. the china daily penned an open letter addressing silver directly saying the nba is supporting the wrong side of the divide between hong kong protesters and beijing the anti-human deeds committed in history, might lead to trouble, even criminal charges we respect these as the bottom lines of freedom of speech in western societies and we hope the west can also respect our bottom lines the nba appears to be standing its ground and an event for fans wednesday has been cancelled but an exhibition game set for thursday in shanghai is still on silver scheduled to attend the pregame press briefing >> thank you how can the professional sports

league doe damage control and rebuild its relationships abroad while still adhering to its principles with us now is mike jackson and paul argenti professor, let me begin with you, was the nba's initial response a failure, and have they slowly but surely started to get it right? >> i think so. in the beginning they were trying to thread the needle an not offend china i think now they realize they have no choice but to support him and the whole right to free speech it shows the lack of planning that goes into thinking about doing business in places like china. i've seen this with lots of other companies before you have to be political >> the initial statement said it

was regrettable that the tweet offended many of our fans and friends in china and then it went on, i guess it would say, very careful language to say the league stood for the ability of its employees to speak on issues of personal concern. so it wasn't as though they totally capitulated here, paul was it >> no, no, they didn't i mean, that's more than most companies would do you can see they were trying to thread that needle, not really offend china, not really support him. that's the worst place to be, either come out strong -- and what's wrong with supporting freedom of speech, which is not really the only issue here, but it seems like something that should be easy for the nba. >> let me turn to you, mike. the nba is not the only business that does business in another

country. they could have found themselves in this kind of situation if one of their employees had spoken out. maybe improperly, maybe not. certainly spontaneously. >> the nba having spent the last 20 years approximately developing their business in china, they know what topics are really taboo i remember when i was an executive with general motors. and our sales in china topped our sales in north america, you know, we took a contingent of about 30 people to spend a couple weeks with our counterparts, our joint venture partners in china, and clearly there were topics back in these days like tibet and taiwan, you don't talk about tiananmen square it would be safe to say that hong kong would be added to that list today it's clearly important for companies to really understand that just the sheer amount of consumerism, taking place in china, represents a big opportunity.

the nba is a lot more savvy, and unfortunately, mr. mori opened his mouth at the wrong time. >> what would you tell a company that is embroiled in a mess like this and now faces boycotts here in the united states who are outraged that the company is not accepting free speech. this could be a huge issue on both sides of the ocean for a company that gets itself in this kind of a mess >> yeah, you're exactly right. the statement paul referenced ertler when they came out and strongly 130r9 their employees and the ability to personally speak their mind and what they believe, that's a stand that they can't compromise on but also, you -- they you have to understand that we have this trade war going on with china. we in the nba should understand

what the dialogue of the prop began saturday machine is spewing out. and what the perspective is there. but clearly they've got some work to do to put this thing back together. and hopefully adam can tap into the relationships that he's built over the last 5 or 10 years, to kind of mitigate this situation. and get back on strong footing >> because the game is so popular over there >> in fact there were fans who wantedry funds if they were not going to be showing these games. there is some leverage on the u.s. side. this tweet came from the general manager, it did not come from a player i don't know if we're going to see any more tweets coming from players, if this is going to have the ground swell we saw with the nfl anthem protest, for example. these players, especially the most famous ones, do huge business, huge sneaker business in china, they're familiar with the market they know it well, they may not. as many of them said, they don't know, they don't want to have to

know the full sort of issue. but it doesn't sound like they're going to be continuing to speak out on this, right? >> yeah, and that's really sad, i mean, the thing is, you should be able to call it as it is. and i think what we know is going on is not something that most of these players probably support, but on the other hand they want to make a lot of money, and you have to think about what your values are and what you're willing to stand for. for the most part companies and individuals give lip service to freedom and freedom of speech, and when push comes to shove, they do what's most exceed yen the to make the money that's there in china the nba has an opportunity here. because they have leverage they're a very successful operation that china would like. they should do something to take advantage of it. >> paul, thank you very much and mike, thank you. >> thank you american airlines is grounding boeing 737 max until next year now.

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shares of johnson & johnson falling today. they were ordered to pay $8 million in a lawsuit over their anti-psychotic drug. >> philadelphia jury late yesterday said j & j must pay $8 billion in punitive damages. the damages are to a man who claims that j & j downplayed the risks in causing breast growth in boys.

they called the award grossly disproportionate and said it would move to get it set aside this is just the latest legal head lining to hit j & j amid battles it's paying in multiple fronts they paid $572 million loss in oklahoma a jury ordered j & j to pay millions in a case over tal come powder some people think the award is a symptom of the thinking of the pharma industry in general >> j & j has had -- of all the companies, maybe in the fortune 500. one of the best reputations for the longest time >> it brides itself on being one that supports nurses, new mothers, it's a family company

johnson & johnson has the reputation, it is dealing with all of these different lawsuits on these different fronts. and it does seem like investors are worried about this, 2% is not much but for a $350 billion company -- >> have they increased their reserves a lot >> we asked the cfo, they appeal all of these verdicts, so they're tied up in court >> thank you very much here's a taste of some stories we're watching today 737 max planes awill be grounded by american airlines longer than any other airplane shares of american are up about 3% today while boeing is unchanged.

it will be interesting, folks, to see how closely people check the equipment on their flights when these planes come back on, and whether when you're sitting in the seat, the pie lot references the airplane model that you're on >> especially for southwest, which is going to have many of them >> it has a lot of them. >> the biggest leads of maxs >> we should mention moving higher, it moved up its unit revenue forecast up 1 1/2 to 2 1/2% in the meantime, disneys earnings in the near future may not be magical the bank cutting its fourth quarter warnings about streaming services competition, decreased park attendants. disney is slightly higher today. but down 10% in the past month >>. >> ever since disney announced a streaming service, the projections are so high, this is

a reminder of hey, here's what they may be facing >> you have to wonder, though. this point in time in evaluation, the stock had run up on the announcement of the pricing plan, with all this competition. there's going to be only so much up side in terms of being able to increase price in a pricing environment where there is so much competition >> exactly >> and the fox integration, apparently they referenced that in their latest earnings report as well >> it's not going as well as you may expect in the meantime, it's been a low year for top brass, ceo departures hitting a high not seen since 2002. more than 1,000 u.s. executives have stepped down so far this year health care and tech have the highest ceo turnover including notable departures tech departures were up 21% from last year. this is an interesting one, is it a sign that there's just the way the market is so tight,

they're being poached? in other words, they're leaving, but to go elsewhere. i know in the case, we mentioned not so much. >> could be a lot of demand for the skills that -- >> right >> late cycle. juul's valuation getting slashed as the death toll linked to vaping increases. a top ntveure capitalist tells us what it means for the cannabis craze i felt like i was going to spend my whole adult life paying this off thanks to sofi, i can see the light at the end of the tunnel as of 12pm today, i am debt free ♪ not owing anyone anything is the best feeling in the world, i cannot stop smiling about it ♪ we believe in education built for all people., - [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life.

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u.s. venture capitalists expected to pour a record of $100 billion into startups for the second straight time this year juul remains the largest egret maker but as negative headlines persist and the death toll linked to vaping keeps rising, and frank holland has the story. >> good afternoon. you know, a lot of headlines about juul, but its valuation is still $38 billion. a 35% stake, price shares in the private market, $250 but as the regulatory scrutiny increases, following at least 25 deaths linked to vaping, it's not clear if that sky high valuation can hold up.

hedge fund desan valuing close to $24 billion sources say the values on the secondary could be pricing shares around $225, or $230. but you have to remember, this is still a tremendous growth story. juul only launched in july 2017 as a spin-off of labs and now has roughly 72% of e-cigarette markets. the bloomberg report kriecitinga person briefed on the numbers says juul expects revenues of $25 billion. state bans and health concerns could hit those revenue numbers. these a well capitalized company but unlike its euaou unicorn, j does have investors including

fidelity and others tiger global and predoxic vendors as vaping remains unclear and regulatory looms, cannabis companies feel the heat as analysts worry it's the next shoe to drop join me is mack hopkins. mack, great to have you with us. i'll pick it up where frank left off. certainly in the publicly traded, stocks we've seen a depressive effect as the vaping illnesses and vaping deaths get reported amongst portfolio companies, how many of those are exposed to vaping are you concerned as this drags on that their valuations could also fall? >> well, we've seen the -- you know, obviously a percent of this drop in the values on the public side of the sector. and the vaping crisis is just a small part of that the reality is that, on the cannabis side, a big portion of the -- of the reset on the

public side has been due to the lack of regulatory progress, at the federal level. >> in terms of your concerns about how this could impact some of your invests, matt, are you worried? i mean, there have been, you know, the argument amongst the bulls in this space, the cannabis bulls, when it comes to related vaping deaths these are isolated to the markets. but actually in oregon there was a case of middle aged man who died and it was connected to vaping products bought at a legal store. >> yeah, look, there is definitely a need for tighter regulation in the industry having a federal overreaching program that could allow us to separate the bad actors from the good actors. because, unfortunately, there's still bad products being sold at licensed locations, in certain states having said that, we aren't

terribly concerned about the sector, because the truth is, sector sales have grown. and meaning sales of thc-related products, which means even though there's probably been a small drop in the vaping products on the thc side, there are so many other delivery mechanisms in the cannabis space that's obviously been an increase in the use of some of those, which is attributed to the increase in sales. >> have you gone through and gone to your portfolio companies and asked them, you know, amongst the vaping products they had, if they had vitamin e acetate within the cartridges, because that has been found to be linked to many of these illnesses, specifically with thc vaping >> absolutely. and the reality is on the vitamen acetate, that is really

what's in the legal market all of the company invested in the cannabis space on the vaping side use closed-loop systems where the oil can't be tampered with >> and it does not contain vitamin e acetate. >> absolutely right. >> matt hawkins. >> thank you sometimes, they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group - how the world advances. ♪

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program, ladies and gentlemen. >> we do >> look at the dow it is back climbing toward session highs. who knows really why it just is maybe it's the rain. >> yep >> probably. this is a session, thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to the "closing bell" i'm courtney reagan in today for sara eisen on the floor of the new york stock exchange, johnson & johnson closed largely 2%. with stock recover something of the big losses earlier in the week now just one day away from a major meeting on trade we're going to cover that coming up on "closing bell. and i'm wilfred frost, good afternoon to you china reportedly said they would consider a partial deal. the minutes from the fed's last meeting showing division on ho