that does it for the exchange. i'll join melissa for power lunch which begins momentarily good afternoon here is what's new at 2:00 fazed and confused wall street trying to n phase one of the trade talks between china and the u.s. is a full trade deal still on track? one farmer says this trade truce isn't enough he'll tell us what he thinks president trump should do, next. rescue we. will justice of the peapmorgan p in to save the day the only other majors to be

trading lower. apple and anike hitting fresh record highs bank of america analyst throws in towel on his cell rating. we'll have more on that. kelly. >> thanks. the excitement over phase one of a trade deal has turned to confusion as china says another round of talks is necessary. >> it's not even a complete workday here at the white house. there's not a lot of bodies in the building to explain exactly where all of this stands the treasury secretary is here he was on cnbc this morning explaining that there is still a lot of work left to do in phase one. here is what he said >> we have a fundamental agreement. it's subject to documentation and there's a lot of work to be done on that front but it includes intellectual property

rights and include financial services, currency and foreign exchange and includes very significant structural issues in agriculture. on top of significant purchases. i would describe phase one as quite substantial. >> there you hear from the treasury secretary he's saying there's a lot of work to be done in the negotiations which are apparently going to be ongoing there's likely to be another round of in person talks between the u.s. and chinese delegati s delegations. not clear at all where that's going to happen if that will be back here in washington, d.c. or somewhere in china in the coming months they expect to have something they can wrap up the president saying he hopes to have this all finalized in about three weeks time there's still a long way to go between here and there >> all right appreciate it. fnch stocks not sure how to react of the news coming out of trade

talks. bob has the latest >> the markets realize today that we really don't have a trade agreement. what we have is a truce with the promise, an negotiated agreement before trump and the chinese president beat november. we saw in the futures reaction early on this morning. there you go this may have to be more negotiations we see today banks, transport stock, energy, industrials, all the trade related names are all a bit weak r today that's the big question on these kinds of deals we don't know the answer to that markets, it does not change the lower growth narrative it doesn't change a lot of important things it doesn't end the trade wars. the battle will continue into 2020 over capital flows and export controls industrial policy this doesn't end right now third quarter earning season mentioned this earlier, starts tomorrow it's been surprisingly quiet

recently most likely because absent of trade deal the company still not sure what the global business climate might look like so they are not saying much. we could get a surprise. we're down 3.2% for the third quarter. that will probably go towards flat it's looking a lot like the first half basically flat to slightly down. estimates for banks and other financials will be reporting tomorrow they have been coming down fast. 6% gain expected in july 1st for the financials today it's only 1% the why it's because the bond yield tanked in august why did they tank? we had additional tariffs that were added on and analysts lower their earning estimates. there's the big decline. that's the main reason we saw the bank estimates one other thing, on days when the market is down, have you noted this recently, ipo, they really underperform. look at this again after rallying last week, smile direct, crowd strike, fastly even beyond meat all down more than the rest of the market. back to you.

>> thank you as the u.s. and china take steps to end their months long trade war by striking phase one of a potential trade deal, is a full deal still within reach? did anyone win round one >> in was a lot of fanfare coming out last week a lot of celebration and then you had chinese state media temper the excitement by saying number one, this is not a plan and number two this is not really an agreement. we have here is a foundation to work towards some kind of a plan to be signed on november 16 or 17 really those comments from china signal they are perhaps not on the same page as the u.s. in terps of how much has been decided and we're still in for a relatively long process while they negotiate out the last few weeks of this agreement. >> do you feel like the process could take longer based on what

we have seen so far. the administration is going to say there's substantial things accomplished in this deal and what they tout are ad purchases instead of emphasizes this supposed development in ip protection, that doesn't add up to me. >> i feel like unless there's some truly dramatic development or really big downturn in the u.s. economy, i think that it's quite possible that this formal trade talks trek of u.s. china policy could go on quite a while longer we might see an nounouncements f more preliminary deals but i think what's just as important and probably more important is that track two of trump's china policy is very much alive so

far. that is what i would call the decoupling track the administration takes steps to ensure the yiet keeps on disentang ling itself from china ea china's economy. i think that's been his accomplishment all along even though he doesn't talk about it much >> does that mean in the world in the long run there will be a china block and a u.s. block, so to speak >> i fully expect that as i see it, that's going to happen it's going to include quite a few more countries of than the united states because many of them are very conflicted when it comes to dealing economically with china it was striking that even london's financial times which is no fan of this trade war to be sure and is no fan of the whole decoupling idea to be sure even the financial times

edtorial board last week called for more american support to build up european alternatives to chinese telecom companies i would astonished by that and everybody should be too. >> it's a good point kelsey, following this day-to-day starts to get a little deadening because it's not clear we're leaving to some kind of big deal or major breakthrough how should markets and investors and corporate america be thinking through this. long term decoupling maybe short term fewer tariffs this year than anticipated >> it's not only tariffs driving decoupling but ideology. looking forward we do have these issues all these factors will weigh on the relationship and that's not going anywhere soon. even fp you see some instances of tariff or stangs relianction

you have a wedge between the u.s. and china that plays out globally or at least in the western world. >> allen made the point he didn't think a deal would happen any sooner unless things happen that effectively bring china toyotas knees or bring the u.s. to its knees would you agree. it's going to be very difficult for either side to come to an grem that's true. we could have some external factor that makes that happens it's likely this continues to drag on for quite a while. china has to be comfortable making openings in sectors it might not want to. the u.s. will have to address the issue. these are two very big issues that have been kicked down the road that's what we're going to be fighting with for the next year, at least >> all right thank you for your time. appreciate it.

is main street gets this right or wrong welcome to you both. unfortunately, it's usually kind of a contrary sign when these out flows pick up the way they have >> it really is in the administration's interest not to put the tariffs on the market is pricing in that the tariffs don't get put on all the recession plmodels will change in those tariffs get put on december 15th >> or if they don't? >> if they do. right now the standard view is you have a slowing next year but no recession the issue is the consumer is holding this up. december 15th are the consumer

tariffs. if you put a hit to the consumer then you'll start changing the probabilities of recession and walking into a recession probably in 2020 >> part of the point is we're waiting on the outcome we've been waiting a lot this year every next deadline people have to say if it does, that's one thing. if it doesn't, that's another. is that contributing the people pulling money out of the market? >> i think it's contributing to short term trading i think there's fears that it will lead to a poorer economy. in my view is as long as interest rates stay at zero and central banks world wide keep the pedal to the metal, which they are doing, i don't think they will be in jeopardy

i kind of view that as bare market >> just one point on that when talking about unified monetary policy are further rate cuts in the u.s. predicated on the trade situation getting worse. if it's not going to get worse this year then what happens? >> i think it's predicated on what else happens in the world we saw last week the fed announced they will be buying bonds again in the middle of october. they are starting whatever they want to call it. they are starting it again these policies continue and they may not be new and they add a tremendous win to the market trade policy will matter and it

will hurt. i think what really moves this bull market over the last many years and continues to mover asset pricing is this historic monetary policy world wide >> the s&p 500 is less than 2% air way, in terms of price things in, we haven't priced in a lot of bad outcomes. >> what we're pricing is another 25 basis points for this year which we do think happens even if there are better signs on trade only because you really do have to have the u.s. central bank more in keeping with the global banks and a strong dollar has been an issue. we're pricing in no inflation ever again core cpi has been over 2% for several months now cpe which is the fed preferred measure is not the cpi is and just hard to believe it will never see inflation ever again >> you think just one more in

one more cut >> we think one more cut because we think it's in the interest for the administration to get moving on this and postpone those december 15th tariffs. if not, it means that the administration is willing to risk a recession to get this right with china that's a probability that's not zero that could happen. >> it's interesting what happened in this timing with the election coming up so soon i know what you're saying. >> these are really tricky issues what the administration has learned is that tariffs work it's only the threatening of increasing tariffs that brings china to the table they cannot get rid of them right away it could be dangerous for europe as well because that is the message they learned >> true. all right. thank you both appreciate it. coming up, wework car krun mp, does the company need a bail

out. roku is doing just fine this year we'll take a look at the rise and the risk cominup g tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? tell him we need this merger. it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network according to america's biggest test. now with 5g evolution. the first step to 5g. more for your thing. that's our thing.

welcome back two major investors could be running to the rescue of wework. wework with weighing two rescue

plans. one from softbank and the other from jpmorgan. softbank is seeking to take control of wework. with us to dig deeper of the headlines the elliot brown great to have you with us. how might it think through of these potential offers >> i think it comes down to who gets the deal done first fands the rest of the shareholders are okay with softbank taking on majority control wework really needs cash quickly and the ipo is supposed to provide an enormous chunk of that >> do we have details on what

this package might be? >> we don't know thicngs like valuation. basically softbank already is a really big owner they own 33% of the company or so. >> are we to speculate it will be put into expansion. we talked about how they have been opening new offices in southeast asia why keep up the breakneck pace and not slow it down now >> they are trying to do that. real estate is sort of -- there's a delay between when you commit to things and when you spend money. six months ago they were still

growing. at 3 months ago they were growing at breakneck pace and find all these leases where they have to spend all this money to build out all these spaces which is really expensive. they were trying to grow much faster than they are now now the new ceos want to slow things down a lot. they have all these leases they have committed to which are expensive. >> when you write the softbank package may further sideline neumann, what do you mean? >> it means softbank would take control and adam who has three votes per share, a huge amount of control and he himself coms about 33% of the company as well, suddenly it would be softbank in the driver seat and he would not have a role there's a lot going on there >> tell us that the cash burn situation is that rapid and that

precarious this is a company that was hoping to do an ipo a month ago. now how much further out in the future are those plans looking >> if this deal goes forward they put in multiple billion dollars of equity and debt and want to get it out a year, as we understand you know, it's sort of hard the say. they really have to reshape the company. under adam it was this real estate, office space of the future, tech community, everything play. they kept buying all these companies with sort of a random pattern to them. now the new ceos are trying to scale that back and make it an officer space provider for large companies and that it self is a

big change >> that sounds like a real estate company >> thank you shares of nike hitting an all time high. are the company shoes getting over looked. then we go down on the farm to talk to a sow bean farmer who says don't trust the china deal until the beans are on the boat. stay with us ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back to power lunch. nike shares are all time high today. analysts catching up to a m massive rally. does it have more room to run? boris, i'll begin with you you had some really interesting thoughts about nike being in an audiocasset awkward spot in china. are they going to be able to overcome that in the long run? >> i've been with nike for a

long time. props to them for tremendous basic cushion. i do think there's a problem here in china. a sense their messaging now will be in direct conflict with the chinese which is with this brouhaha over the nba. they're kind of like a drive by victim their messaging is about individuality and freedom. i think in many ways that very much contrast with the messaging of sacrificing one for the good of all i wonder just how tough and tight this whole conflict between the nba and china will become and whether nike could become a victim of the protests that happens as a result of it >> they have been able to do quite well in the chinese

market also screens positively in our trend work based on the slope of its moving average speaking in terms of the chart, the recent break out above its april peak of $90, we think it's marking a resumption that's been in place it measures to 103 that's the height of the prior range. projected from the break out point our analyst raised his target to 115 on the stock additional up side here. nike still looks good. >> there's some strategies for nike shares. thank you, guys. for more trading nation head to the website or follow along on twitter. ahead, president trump declaring a victory in the trade war but after the break we'll

speak to one farmer who says the k recent talks with china are nothing but empty promises sources saying the former new york mayor might decide to run for president if joe biden drops out of the race. we have the details, next. disney streaming muscles ahead of the launch of disney plus tweeting out the shows and movies available all of this when power lunch returns. sir, you're a broker. what do you charge for online equity trades?

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welcome back iranian president urging turkey to halt its military offensive against kurdish forces in northern syria he said tehran does not accept the methods that turkey has chosen new images have emerged of an iranian oil tanker that tehran says came under missile attack in the red sea. video broadcast by saudi tv shows what appears to be an oil slick behind the tanker. photos released shows damage done to that vessel. thousands of troops and rescue workers in japan continue to save stranded residents and fight floods caused by one of the worst typhoons to hit the country in recent history. japanese media says 3 1 people were killed with another 15 missing and 186 injured. a search is under way in maryland more a suspect that police say shot a montgomery

county officer in a silver springs parking garage the officer was rushed to a hospital in critical condition you are up to date back to you. thank you. the oil market is closing for the day. $53.52 that's 2% plus it's been largely wiped out at this point trade optimism along with an attack on iranian oil tanker and u.s. plans to deploy more troops and military to saudi arabia help push those oil prices higher on friday now there's more caution over what president trump calls phase one of a u.s.-china trade deal. for some context in terms of oil prices we sit around 16% below the highs that we saw on both

wti and brent crew prices after two processing plants in saudi arabia were attacked in mid-september. those prices largely off from where they were just a month ago. back over to you >> thank you weav there are rumblings that another candidate may be jumping into the race. it's familiar face >> we thought mike bloomberg may not be running and now maybe he is he's talking to people he's signaling maybe there's a lane for him here in joe biden continues to struggle against elizabeth warren >> what does continue to struggle mean? >> what's been going on here with joe biden is he has been taking a dip while elizabeth warren has been surging. there's been coming after a number of debates where biden has not really lived up to the

expectation that he really made for himself. being a former vice president but making himself that front-runner and being that centrist that's what he was supposed to be running on and it hasn't gone that way a lot of voters have been seeing that in the polls. it hasn't been every poll but enough for enough indications for mike bloomberg, a billionaire, a ton of resources for saying maybe there's a place for me if biden can't make it through the first few months >> are we talking about him running as a democrat? >> we know he said he wanted to run as democrat. we have seen this movie before in march when he said he wasn't going to run and said he was looking into running as a democrat >> can me logistically jump in at this point and how much time does he have in. >> hoost te's the type of guy t can pick up the phone and he will have a campaign ready to go

>> he will have a campaign but what about the rules to participate in the debate and signatures he has to get on the ballot. >> debate participation has been contingent on money. he has lots of that. >> we said the same thing about tom steir. he got in later. he's done so the dnc has a whole outline of one can get in you have certain donor thresholds a lot of them are 2% to get in you imagine that maybe he could hit that threshold down the road it will take some time for him to get there >> what are his projected odds against elizabeth warren >> in some polls it's not clear what the head to head matchup would be the only indication we have is in february there was this survey done and got about 14% of likely voters to say they probably would vote for them

he skyrocketed to be one of the favorit favorites. things really have changed since then i appears that mike bloomberg has sensed that. now we're going into the iowa caucus and he seems to sense that maybe there could be a place for him here >> is this going to be an imminent announcement? >> i don't think there's no realtime line. it's just that it's interesting to really note this was a guy in march who said maybe this wasn't the right race for him and now we fast forward to now where he say maybe it is time we have seen this before from mike bloomberg >> fascinating story thank you so much.

for more on the 2020 presidential election go to cnbc.com president trump has called his partial trade agreement with china including 40 to 50 billion dollars of agriculture purchase a great deal one farmer doesn't say that. you're saying you don't believe anything until the soybeans are on the boat. >> i've said that. i don't believe it until they are on the boat. this is deja vu all over again the promised massive purchases from mexico, from the eu he's now promised massive purchases from the chinese and he's done that before. let's just think about this a minute somebody has to speak truth to power here a little bit. let's think about this we've been selling $21 billion worth of agriculture products to china and they're going to

double that and we don't know if it's one year, two years, five years. we don't know what the time period is. i'm really dubious i hate to be a downer on this but somebody that to be practical. >> it's significant to note and correct me if i've wrong you voted for trump in 2016. your farm spans two counties that overwhelmingly supported the president in the next election you say you wouldn't support him now, is that right >> no. i'm not going to vote for the president. i'm on record saying that. it doesn't matter what he comes up with mow. he could come up with this $50 billion. he would walk across my pond and not get wet and i'm still not going to vote for him. at the end of the day my name is chris gibbs, it's not judas. i'm not going to sell my political morings for 30 pieces of silver. i'm out. >> even putting aside promises from the president, do you believe there could be the demand for that amount of soybeans in china at this point

with the african swine flu taking grip there? >> that's a great point. their need for soybean meal and soybeans has decreased and we're not sure how much their pork production has been affected but their need is less they're going to by these agriculture products from somewhere. here is one of the other questions. are they going to limit sales from somebody else or increase sales fr s sells from the u.s there's nothing we can put our hand on because we don't have a written agreement. i watched china state media really closely over the weekend. just to see what they were saying, the other side of this thing. two of their largest newspapers. one of them the story was below the fold and the other story didn't appear on the front page and when it did they just talked about substantial progress

40 billion dollars, $50 billion would have been a story. i would imagine they would be those somewhere else >> chris, as you mentioned the president had already lost your support. i'm curious we just showed the figures. soybean exports are way down this year compared to with the recent pass. what have business conditions been like for you? >> just as of this morning and let's talk about pricing, we're all the way back we had a bit of bump in the futures prices for corn and soybeans on friday just based on this announcement. it was like the market nibbled on it. they almost bit but over the weekend prices started to go down just with that bump, we came all the way up to the cost of production on soybeans. we're still not making money >> all right thanks very much appreciate checking in with you.

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welcome back here is a taste of some other stories we're watching today gm and united auto workers are trying to reach an agreement a sign that this dispute is nowhere near a resolution. gm is down about 9% since the strike began last month. they are increasing the pay out to $275 a week to 215. also lifting a restriction on members seeking part-time work >> the longer the strike goes, the bigger and the cost to gm. the bigger question surrounding gm will be able to meet targets when it comes to earnings but also cost saving target which is it had given before. we'll see. every day is not good. shares down 3% following the downgrades the concern is the resell market are speak are scooping up used bags will hurt brands like coach

and kate spade i think the price point for coach bag or kate spade bag is challenging. it's around $400 it's not quite cheap enough to be a throw away hand bag it's not luxury enough to have resell value it's this in between thing >> the rise of resell is the most interesting story the way in which all kinds of companies are being up ended by this the fashion retailers we talked about. forever 21 filing for bankruptcy because there's this movement of people saying i'm not throwing away too much of my clothes.

>> california passed legislation changing rules for so called tele dentistry the bill will create unnecessary hurdles and raise costs for patients this thing is now under ten bucks. it ipo'ed at 23. >> this is a prime example that the ipos are in industries that have yet to be figured out the legislation is catching up with them. >> it feels like the incumbents fight back you can upstart or create a business or we can throw the book at you. shares of netflix down 23 p23% in three months. will earnings this week reverse n g slide caito even higher. power lunch will be right back

shares of roku have quadrupled this year on the theory that no matter who wins the streaming war, roku will benefit. but have investors overlooked the risks? julia boorstin is looking at both sides of that issue for us. >> roku shares may be down a

little bit, but they are up about 300% year-to-date on confidence that this company will benefit from all the new streaming apps roku is expected to add ad revenue from disney plus as they market themselves to streamers now, in addition to advertising from its free channel and a kind of subscription revenue and downloads, roku also sells streaming devices and licenses its technology to smart tvs. as of last quarter, the company had 30.5 million active accounts rbc's mark mahaney raising his price target on roku, saying it will benefit from being the swi switzerland of these streaming wars mccleary upgraded the stock on roku's expansion to europe coming next year there are risks, though, to roku there are so many other streaming services out there some like appletv, amazon

firestick, and google chrome cast and those deep-pocketed tech giants could decide to dramatically slash the cost of their streaming devices in order to become the base of consumers eep bundles. and then we'll have to see whether the media giants that are launching all of these streaming services decide to pull back access to their services or perhaps give roku a smaller percentage of that subscription revenue that they're going to be charging guys, back over to you >> thank you very much, julia boorstin roku's gain may be netflix's pain the stock struggling the streaming giant losing almost a quarter of its value during the last three months with several firms like morgan stanley, raymond james slashing their price targets on the stock. this as the kmegs is about to heat up with the launch of disney and apple's new streaming services, which are just around the corner here with us now is brett harris, the analyst and associate portfolio manager at g research great to have you with us. the decline in the stock, directly related to the number of streaming services that have come out and said, we're going to price at this price point

seem very competitive. what does netflix have to do this quarter in order to allay concerns about them possibly being boxed into the price that they have right now? >> right so, you know, netflix stock has really fallen on q2 earnings, where they lost 130 thousand subscribers in the u.s they underperformed and came in at 2.7 million total subscribers in the quarter q3, they're expecting to add something like 7 million subscribers, 6.2 internationally, and 800,000 in the u.s. what they need to do is hit those numbers. if q2, they talked about what was driving the miss and they essentially spoke to content, there was great content in q1, which pulled some subs forward and great content coming in q3, which perhaps moved subscribers into q3. they need to post good numbers coming up in two days on wednesday. and the second thing is they need to show that they can compete with disney. we won't know that until q4, q1 of 2020. because disney comes out

november 12th. they have a very competitive price offering they're going to be launching at $6.99 for disney plus and out there with a bundle, which is hulu, espn plus, and disney plus all for something like $13 >> is there a -- we always talking about the valuation. like you say, a $136 billion enterprise company and negative $3 billion of free cash flow. is there -- they still have the growth premium in there? is there a premium at all on takeover possibilities because every now and again, it's floated that this is a way for apple to beef up its content big-time if they really wanted to go that route >> at this point, apple's streams service is-based on spending around $1 billion on content. if they want to get serious, perhaps they would buy the 150 million subscribers that netflix has. so that's certainly an area where -- a way to justify netflix's stock price here whether apple is a really a buyer at $136 billion or it prefers to create it own content

and try to enter, as we've seen, amazon, netflix, it's been,, you know -- both of those companies with large amounts of cash have been able to come into the market and build content it shows that perhaps the barriers to entry in the modern content world aren't as high as they used to be. >> you have a hold rating on disney stock is that correct? >> i do. >> why is it the valuation that so much built in >> you can break it down to three parts. you have the parks you've got the legacy media businesses espn and abc those have all of the same secular issues that other media companies have and trade at eight times ebitda, which means if you take those out of the valuation, investors are ascribing something like $60 billion to disney's over-the-top streaming services already >> before it exists. >> before it had launched. and even the company says they don't think they're going to be profitable until 2024. so clearly, whether it's netflix stock or disney stock, there seems to be a pretty full

valuation over these over the top streaming services and many of them have yet to generate a profit. so i think from our perspective, there's some hesitancy about recommending a buy, given there's not a huge margin of safety on these valuations >> okay. brett, thanks for joining us >> thanks for having me. cckplseisex>>he, ea! nt.

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at the end of the tunnel as of 12pm today, i am debt free ♪ not owing anyone anything is the best feeling in the world, i cannot stop smiling about it ♪ check, please! >> welcome back. a quick check, please! before we go we're going to call it ipo countertrend day uber is up, it's rallying about

4% today butsmile direct down almost 12 today. beyond meat also getting hit with a drop of about 4.5%. crowd strike, melissa, down about 10%. crowd strike got a sell rating over at citi price target is 43 bucks a share and that implies 29% downside. last week we got a goldman sachs call also on this one. also a downgrade on valuation concerns this is one that had done extremely well and maybe too well to the point where people are questioning the run. >> true. uber is interesting, because, yes, we had the news, word of more layoffs potentially coming. ceo put out a statement talking about needing to kind of clean things up a little bit as they grow but the shares have been rallying all day not just a reaction to that. >> yep i am watching the pot sector once again hexo, remember last week lost about 38% of its value it took down its forecasts and it really had a huge impact on the rest of the pot stock sector and so we're watching this fallout continue today aurora cannabis getting its

price target cut over at mkm and some of the worries include the bigger disparity in pricing between black market and legal market and a slower than expected store opening pace in ontario and questibec. so there are fundamental issues here with the sector people are concerned about >> thank you for watching "power lunch" >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> it does, indeed welcome to the "closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost. i'm here at the nike post. that stock one of two on the s&p 500 hitting record all-time high more on the analyst note that's driven that move coming up broader markets trading broader. the dow is down three points after friday's massive rally we have 59 minutes left of trade. >> and i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen let's look at what's driving the action keep that champagne on ice that was the chinese state media's cautious response to the announcement made friday saying, pen still has to be put to paper