tv Street Signs CNBC October 23, 2019 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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and loving father. i love you so much and will love you forever. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> european markets take stock opposing the brexit bill >> the eu must make up their minds. the government must take the
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only responsible course and accelerate our cooperations. >> a stark out look from texas instruments chips away the tech bill lowers profit for the year blaming the u.s./china trade war. >> abb falls higher. the swiss industrial group warns of deeper conditions in u.s. and china. a taste for heineken following a week performance in the americas >> good morning. welcome to "street signs." getting an early check about one hour into the trading this morning. no doubt on back of the weakness
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we are seeing in sterling. a lot of political developments we'll get to not least how the eu will respond and what type of extension we'll be looking at. that's squarely the focus in the uk you can imagine on the day when the pound is trading softer. cac down and italian index down too. in europe, the discussion is not only about brexit but also about the italian budget proposal. taking you to some individual stories too as we get to the heart of the earnings season starting with chip makers, they are all trading lower after texas instruments issued a weak out look yesterday tech company said it expects
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companies to 0 come in below expectations also missed tough forecasts. you can see it is having ramifications across the european chip sector today all trading in the red the impact of trade tensions is also echoed in major earnings releases the abb has warned about weakening conditions in u.s. and china blaming the trade wars for a fall in orders the robotics and automated divisions are under pressure as a 15% drop in net profit was not as steep as analysts anticipated. abb is trading up. moving to the beer space, heineken narrowed its forecast
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predicting operating profit this year would come in around 4% that is at the lower end of the previous guidance. this despite posting a rise as a decline in the american market was offset heineken down 2.4% psa group has posted a rise as demand for high priced suv models helped compensate for flagging globable ails the pugeut maker giving a bit of a boost to auto industry >> thank you let's get into the top political story of the day british lawmakers voted to proceed with boris johnson's new
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deal but moments later they did not agree on the timetable it is now up to the eu to grant the uk an extension. >> willem there, we'll start with you boris johnson managed to achieve what theresa may never did he got his deal through but with the crucial timetable not getting through. >> when he got through was the proposition, in principal of his deal what that shows is not only if you look at the numbers on his party side, he managed to unite his entire party all 225 mps voted. and the labor mps in principal to push forward. we know the dup is emphatically
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opposed. he managed to get a 30-vote majority yesterday the sands under his feet have shifted some what. it is a positive development that there is a majority looking at a deal. as you mentioned there, that program motion, the timetable for parliament showing some of those lawmakers, although they might like some of those, they do want to have more time to change things and that might be why we saw the program motion defeated yesterday >> let's get out to silvia the ball firmly in the eu's court. what can you tell us about the extension offered from the eu? >> as you say, the eyes are on the european union whether it
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will say yes to a request for an extension and how long that third delay will be. we don't know how long the agreement will be a decision i asked a few officials here when we can expect news from the european capitals. when this could happen as early as tomorrow. the same person told me this decision could easily happen next week. the same official told me there is no clear indication when the eu will make that decision whether it will say yes to a request to an extension but will depend on the talks that are right now happening between donald tusk and the different european governments across the 27 european capitals we need to bear in mind, we cannot prejudge how the eu will
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request for this extension they will make it clear that eu needs to come up with a unanimous discussion if one country brings up some problem, then leaders could take some time to make the final decision, we could see them gathering here for an emergency meeting. finally, let me remind our viewers about the implications, let's not forget that brexit process doesn't end here we have phase two to go through. when the eu and the uk discuss their future trade relationships and if we get an extension until january 2020, then there is going to be less time to discuss how the trade relationship will move on, how it will take shape
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in the coming years. >> there is no risk of us not talking about brexit at least another two or three years thank you. let's bring in another silvia. great to have you with us on the show have you done any analysis on what sort of upside a boris johnson deal could present to the european economy, if it does eventually get passed somehow. >> thank you good morning it is a pleasure to be here. we have done some analysis we could say the developments over the last few days and week have clearly diminished. from the economic perspective, our analysis shows the uk should have better momentum in terms of
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rebounding investment spending so far, they are underperformed the other countries. it used to be on top of the pack we expect some demand that could develop in the next few months the lower uncertainty does not really translate that clearly will be the development for us in the markets >> what kind of upside could we see for europe as opposed to the uk >> again, there is some work we have done, just presented in their latest count that shows the european growth has been affected the numbers are not that large we are talking about 10, 20
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basis points of growth still removing the tale risk is going to be positive also for the european economies in particular, if you think about germany, they've been negatively effected. to the ideal factors, to the regulations and the removal of china. citizens in china. it has reflected the integration the auto sector has between the uk and continent some removal will be possible. >> i want to take you along the slightly different year. talk about the european economy. it is going to be special not because of what will be announced but it is draghi's
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last meeting he had been there eight years. what do you think today is the key message coming out of the ecb and what do you think draghi will really like to hound to the people watching? >> two things will be key. one, clearly the ecb has taken a bold package of measures one message will be, this package will be sufficient to bring higher inflation we are going to be patient to meet our mandate we have already delivered. he will try to telemarket, believe me, this message will be quite large and have a positive effect another that will continue to deliver to policymakers and to market that monetary policy cannot be the only game in town.
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politicians will be ready to deploy more fiscal easing. particularly in countries where there is more fiscal space it is complicated in europe. you look at the euro area as a whole, it is much more sound than the one in the u.s. and japan, there is a lot across the divided countries. >> looking at some shorts compared to the fiscal easing compared to what happened today. different situation, it does tell you that the fiscal easing germans like to talk about is nothing, it is about a quarter of what they did back in 2009, 2010 so how bad do things have to get out there? >> it is very interesting you
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are reading this in the chart. my reading is a little bit different. when you think about fiscal easing, it can come in different forms. one part is the economy calls discretionary fiscal easing. then there is the part that comes as part of the automatic stabilizers. when you are in a recession or a slow down, there is some automatic fiscal easing that comes in if you look at the discretionary part, germany has basically included in its draft budget three quarters of a percentage point into its fiscal easing which is some part of what was done in 2009, 2010 coming from one of tax cuts. when we think about today, one,
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i think it is important these really get delivered in the german and the history of underdelivering. clearly, if the situation worsen, if germany were to get into a recession, we also expect some additional one. >> so keep an eye on the stabilizers. coming up, we'll take a look back at mario draghi's tenure on the eve of his final policy meeting ever we'll be right back. l? got it. janet, i hope you're not afraid of heights. what's going on in here? my it staff is planning to overthrow me. they're tired of working weekends to maintain our aging infrastructure. at cdw we get the pain of outdated technology. that's why we'd assess your needs then design a secure infrastructure to make you more agile and efficient. hey guys. oh hey, boss.
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balance sheets let's take a look back at some of the key moments in his ecb career starting with a surprise rate cut november 1, 2011, just two days after taking office breaking away from his predecessor who is probably mostly remembered for that surprise hike in 2008. november 1, 2011 eight months later, history was made he uttered three words that arguably saved the european economy and kept the block together >> the ecb is willing to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro believe me, it will be enough. >> two years later, june 5, 2014 mario draghi went negative
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cutting the deposit rates for banks to minus 0.1%. >> i will say for all the practical purposes, we have reached the lower bank >> two years later, things were still weak, he dug deep and launched a sweeping bond buying program called kwaquantitative easing germany teetered on the brink of a recession, reintroduced qe last month in what many received as draghi's parting give >> we have decided to restart asset purchases. we expect them to run for as
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long as necessary. >> our colleague spoke to a range of policymakers last week and asked about the ecb's push into negative rates. we have done a lot of analysis we have concluded the package we put together would be beneficial and even the package one bione would be a positive effect that is very close to the point and a trap of negative rates >> i also thought negative interest rates was not a good idea i decided to be out spoken and to change the atmosphere >> all sort of effects it effects people with small savings and our pension sector it also opens opportunities for
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government recessions. to support the mandate on the other side supporting the demands means fiscal policy. social measures means the policy this means out of the mandate of the ecb. >> getting out to our ecb watcher. i was just going over quickly some of the key points of draghi's eight-year history. pretty remarkable. we all remember the days when people said ecb will never go negative here we are the most negative the interest rate has been mr. draghi looking at his final meeting is coming under a lot of criticism not the least by your german come patriots what do you think will be the tone
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>> reporter: there will be loads of questions how bad the rift is and why that decision had to be taken and why he still believes that this had to happen in september and whether this is also not sort of a very big preconditioning of what christine lagarde can do as the new ecb president. her hands will be pretty much tied at least for the end of this year and for the full end next year whach what can you do more in a way given the rift inside the council. let me broaden the picture mario draghi presided and completely make over of the european central bank when it was created and under the range, she was still more or less modelled after the bundes bank
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with the help of peter pratt he opened the central bank up or remodelled it towards an angelo saxon tied bank towards tackling the inflationary problems. i had the pleasure of meeting the man who worked with draghi and i asked him how big his surprise was to the words, whatever it takes. take a listen. >> we discussed together before that we must be ready for any situation. we must have a central bank with
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power to act without predetermined limits and take the position also to do it with majority it surprised me totally. when moment came, the reactions, how strongly it was felt surprised me on the upside >> what made draghi also very special is that he kind of changed how he was perceived following the eight years. when he started his job, the german public was thinking he was like a german/italian. after eight years, we all know where he and the bundes bank are standing not very much in line. >> thank you we look forward to your coverage tomorrow at that milestone
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meeting. let's push on and talk about hydro that has jumped. lower costs have offset soft metal prices and reported a turnaround in its brazilian unit thank you for joining us this morning. stronger set of results had been expected your shares have reacted positively as a result how much visibility do you have for the rest of the year can this positive momentum continue >> it is a combination of two factors influencing us today on the one side, an area where we have quite good visibility is what we are working on ourselves. we have been ramping up our brazilian operations, following the embargo situation.
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this we will do also third quarter and into next year this will bring down costs and improve profitable on this basis. the other area we have less visibility is on the demand side for end products ourselves and the rest of the industry are seeing some what weakening demand in europe and north america in the coming period >> so fairly caution on the demand side will not come as a surprise to anyone you have initiated a strategic review of your processing. can you give us a sense of what we ewe are talking about in term of job cuts and savings we are talking about? >> profitability hasn't been good over the latter years, that's why we initiated a restructuring program and
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reviewing of our operations. following the full potential review, we target that to improve operations by around 0.9 billion. this comes with some reduction in capacity. we have closed the part of that foil operation experiencing the rest of the portfolio. also the rest of demanding the 700 to 800 people in terms of the restructuring cost >> you talk about your revised out look you see it lower than where you are anticipated. what does that mean ultimately for prices looking ahead to 2020 >> if you look at the global aluminum command, it has come down some what in 2019 compared
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to expectations we had earlier in the year. the overall balance is still an undersupplied situation given capacity especially in china as we move into 2020, with a more flat demand expectations compared to what we have seen, markets are moving more into balance. for aluminum, i would like to stress there are segments that are standing out the can segment is experiencing quite strong substitution effects away from plastic, which is helping the demand picture. >> speaking of that, are you realigning your business strategy and moving away from low growth area to high growth areas, such as transportation? >> yes if you look at what we've done, it has been very much shifting our focus into transport and
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automotive both in europe but also in north america. here we continue to see growth in the rolling area because of high substitution. we are seeing some what lower demand for transport of industry even as a whole. a lot of this has been compensated on the can market side now the recent announcement was shifting from the volumes to can to take growth in that market. >> makes a lot of sense. thank you for taking time to talk with us coming up on the show, china hits out after reports that beijing is drawing up plans to replace hong kong execivute carrie lam
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>> and i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines uk lawmakers reject the timetable to pass boris johnson's brexit bill. >> the eu must now make up their minds over how to answer parliament's request for a delay. the first request is that the government must take the only responsible course and accelerate our preparations for a no-deal outcome. >> a stark out look chips away at semiconductor stocks. abb falls after third quarter profit falls warning of weaker conditions in the u.s. and china a bitter taste for heineken. shares fizz lower after they say
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they will come in lower than expected following weak performance in the americas. it is a bit of a mixed picture in europe in terms of equity trade the italian and french indices are trading. we have green coming together for german stocks. the dax trading 0.8% higher. this comes as we've seen a pull back in sterling overnight and again this morning this comes on the back of last night's brexit developments with boris johnson successfully getting approval for his deal in principal but not getting approval for the timetable now the question is how the eu will respond in terms of offering an extension to boris johnson and the uk
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how long will the extension be let's look at fx markets and see where we stand sterling trading around 1.2855 the euro around 1.11 tomorrow being his final meeting at the helm of the central bank. we'll be looking to that in more detail the europe o is basically flat d of that meeting. looking at the futures ahead of the wall street open, three major indices are looking at a muted start. we did see a pull back in texas instruments. that will take focus in the u.s. today weighing on those european
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chip makers. a political rumor with al tieror motives, that was the response to report beijing was planning to oust carrie lam after months of protests a report the central government was set to force lam out in march and install an interim leader >> reporter: beijing is reportedly drawing up plans to replace carrie lam final times quoting sources that say an interim leader will be installed by march and serve out the rest of lam's term that will last until 2022. it has been said lam has mishandled the clash authorities here would likely be careful, not wanting to appear as though beijing is caving to
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protesters they would like to see the protests die down further before making a switch. any discussion today is being heavily censored who would replace her? her idea is the son of a text tile tycoon. another option is the former head of the hong kong de facto central bank two other potential candidates are the current financial secretary and an advisor to lam but both are seen as too close to her the timing would be interesting because it would be made in time for the parliamentary session. president xi jinping would have to sign off on the switch. it is unsure how this will ease
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the rift in the uk, a property developer nick candy is eyeing a take over. interest from candy's investment vehicle saw capc o's shares jump 9% it has not yet been approached by candy or any other bidder more than half executives are planning to pursue m&a in the next few months. the list of top investment destinations coming in despite trade tensions the uk is also in the top five as brexit uncertainty draws interest global vice chair services from ey with more i want to kick off on more of the capco story.
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sharing a bit of interest. looking at the uk more broadly, we can't ignore the timing of this story we see this interest in the uk assets do you think we'll see more of that as we enter what could be the final stage of brexit. >> if you look at peeling back what is happening and what our survey is telling us what is happening. 52% plan for the acquisition the imperative to transform your business exceeds the down side of uncertainty as long as that continues, that goes at a strong pace. why is that happening. there is so much transition. you have to move the pace. buying versus building is the best and fastest way you say how is it happening,
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there is a ton of dry powder you look at equity, probably $40 trillion of capital. the uk is no different than any other market great talent, great technology ceos with the intent to act and take care of their business. there could be some uncertainty before and after if a hard brexit would come. call it a few weeks before or after. otherwise, i think you'll continue to see the imperative to act >> that is fascinating the push to transform is trumping uncertainty. obviously the trade war and protectionism creates a difficult landscape. how have you seen an appetite
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for cross-border deals this year >> our survey would suggest an over the next 12 months. why is that? markets are global, customers are global customers have choices where and what to buy. that is tearing down geographic boundaries as difficult as trade, tariffs, trade wars, regulations can make the environment. you have to consider that. the imperative to act and transform your business is greater. >> $40 trillion sitting on the sidelines available for acquisitions i also saw that 58% also expect an increase of hostile and competitive bidding over the next 12 months is that a coincidence or so much money sitting on the sidelines
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>> i think there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines you've got to understand when you look at hostile bids very view of what might originate actually turns out to get publicized that way. it might be a share holder lobbying for change. that happens a deal gets done that never quite gets labeled as hostile in the press. we've seen more and more of those situations as indicated, we expect more. >> how is private equity sorting the landscape. given that the ipos have done remarkably badly, do you see a trend moving from public to
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private. a good example would be overnight, the talk of soft bank requiring. how is that changing the landscape? >> that's a great question we definitely see companies staying private longer there is more options to fund and obtain capital for their businesses some people have said this is the year where public meets private where some of these bigger bigger bigger unicorns do go to the markets. overall, things have been pretty good you have to assess the challenge of what is the assessment horizon? what is the right value for a company? what is the right time to go public those are differen another inte
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around the desire for asian companies to acquire the companies. given the way the trade landscape is developing between china and the rest of the world, have we seen any pull back given the difficulty of getting these deals through? >> i don't think you've seen a pull back in appetite. i think you are seeing an increase and japan being part of that equation too. those companies being out bound as well as the development by the way. companies are navigating certainly the u.s. is not any easier than europe you are seeing that decline into the u.s. for example i expect to see continued demand into europe and the uk >> thank you for that detail global vice chair, transaction
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services ey. >> stay with us, soft bank takes a stake of wework. find out how much the former eu adam neumann can be paid right after break. (client's voice) remember that degree you got in taxation? (danny) of course you don't because you didn't! your job isn't doing hard work... ...it's making them do hard work... ...and getting paid for it. (vo) snap and sort your expenses to save over $4,600 at tax time. quickbooks. backing you.
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. >> welcome back to "street signs. shares in softbank dipped after agreeing to take majority stake in wework. upping value to $13 billion. wework will be valued down at the valuation targeted before a failed ipo attempt the wall street journal reports former ceo adam noeumann will be paid $1.7 million.
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>> snap chat makers expect sales between $540 to $560 million next quarter adding that the company faces a head wind because of the peek demand >> snaps results are the latest in a string of key earnings in u.s. tech companies. later today, microsoft will report along with ebay, microsoft and tesla. next week, alphabet, facebook and apple join the fray. >> texas instruments shares plunge nearly 10% citing a weak out look the tech company expects to come in below analyst expectations. texas instruments have previously warned that a slow
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down would last a while. that was the performance of texas instruments. let's look at european chip makers down about half a percentage point. asml down. the read has been negative for european chip makers let's bring in the specialist in technology and tech stocks i'll ask you just to read after the results we saw out of texas instruments. it sounds like the out look is pretty grim. yet, i look at the semiconductor etf. that is up 40% year to date. what is going on >> it is a disconnect between results and trends if you are going to invest well, you should probably ignore the
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short term noise ti is incredibly diverse even if they've given pessimistic guidance here and if it has dropped, it is probably just on the view even if the imf gives a negative view point we know the u.s. economy is holding up just fine >> the tech sector is very close to the trade war and supply chain, have you observed that many u.s. companies have modified their supply chain throughout the course and through anticipation of further tariffs and in anticipation of tariffs now that goes along with
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exposure to china? >> i don't think there is a sign to shift in what you are calling supply chains. it is like turning around the titanic. companies may be trying to find the best sources of value and chinese suppliers returning to political pressure they are trying to find the part of least resistance. more about the trend growth rather than a warning sign >> you talk about suggesting and looking through the noise and believe in the long-term value
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themes you'll be looking for this week? >> as i said, if you look atom zon, microsoft and google, they just plot along. >> your biggest holding is microsoft. >> we have microsoft, yes. >> what is the investment thesis there if you are not looking at quarterly earnings >> that shift to public cloud and transformation across the board of fortune 500 companies these trends will not change moft, you've got amazon, google and the public cloud these are incredibly strong in
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the bust it is still not that expensive for the growth out look it has i would look at the quarterly results and not do anything. >> we'll leave our viewers with that corporate manager from asset management thank you for taking the time to speak to us today. there are a lot of earnings to watch out for in the tech space. not the least, microsoft this is the picture for s&p 500 and nasdaq slightly down that is it for "street signs" today. i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. ♪ when you look at the world, what do you see? ♪
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