going in with the stock at all-time high. it's only been nine or ten months since we thought they were in big trouble in china and stocks up tremendous hi since then. >> we are out of time. thanks so much for watching. wishing everyone a great weekend. that does it for "closing bell." >> and "fast money" begins right now. live from from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city time limits square. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour. mike khouw dan nathan guy adami on the show beyond me down more than 50% no the three months heading up to the lock up expiration next we can we debate the alternative ending will home builders rip s&p closing fiefd just shy of a record high. the largest gain in sixweeks could next woke, the biggest for earnings season finally push us over the line, guy. >> it appears that way melissa. >> you think so.

>> somebody on the hook. clearly i questioned this for weeks, incorrectly today all you need to know is at one point azmodan down about 3.5% 4%. nasdaq higher at the time. amazon closes done a percent or so something benign. nasdaq grinds high are i mean it's incredible to me that in the wake of what i think is some serious negative news around the globe the market pushes high are. we'll know more next week. for me the most important day of the week is wednesday is when you hear from apple and facebook but even on bad earnings stocks seem to want to go high are. that tells you all you need to know. >> caterpillar wasn't such a disaster on the stock price reaction. >> performancewise. >> compared to the report. >> which is remarkable. >> another examples. >> earnings and guidance were not great. >> then the reignition of the semi trade. >> look, intel -- what they told you about demand last night in terms they have to beef up spli this is exactly the opposite what they told you for at least maybe one if not two quarters.

so the bar going into the earnings season was extremely low. also just underpinning a lot of this this week is you had a market, services manufacturing flash update effectively slightly better than last month. efo in germany a measure of their economy. slightly better. pmis in other parts of the world slightly better. as we digested some of the geopolitics into the earnings season that was very much i think a low bar, we have a dynamic here where companies are actually giving a better outlook. we didn't think they'd give a rosy outlook that's key. the headline and revenue numbers are what they are but the eps is better. >> do you feel better about the markets today versus a week ago. >> intel numbers are one of the reasons. whenever you hear somebody coming out saying we got a surprise $1.2 million revenue beat that's meaningful they tell the story. we were surprised by how good things were. then we should also be surprised. i mean we get -- all of us

basically holding our feelers out the same way we are hearing this getting guidance from basically corporate management and if they're positively surprised we are too. guy was talking about how bad news doesn't seem to be dpretsing the market and you're talking about low hurdles. that's a lot baked into the prices that's one of the reasons we see fairly significant response and amazon's response after a down after the close. >> there's been attention placed on intel which has been massively underperforming the broader space in general we know the smh is up 40% year to date and coming into today intel up 5 or 6% trading the midpoint of the range. you got to go back and look at texas instruments which has been a massive outperformer over the last year, year and a half or so especially relative to intel and guiding down by the amount that intel off a smaller revenue base i think for every one thing you want to say that was a positive

there are some negatives i make one point i made this a couple of times. the baits in the broad market in the nasdaq, the s&p, the longer it goes. >> the longer it's spaced. >> the longer the base the higher in space. >> you know, the longer we have been range bound it looks like- sets up better for a breakout. i'll remind you april q 1 earnings period, july q 2 earnings period we made new incremental all-time highs and sold off afterwards. expectations in both instances were low too i guess the point i make is i'm not certain it's different than the last two earnings cycles and it's easy to get geekd up oh on a day where you get good news from intel you thought amazon was bad last night amazon was down 8%. 850 billion-dollar market cap company is down. >> is that bad or good. >> it's good it could change quickly. both last two cold wars we had news change on the trade front

don't think trade is out of the way. >> if we played a game of fade tor trader. >> which i happen to love that game. >> dan you would say fade this >> i would say a new high is a foregone conclusion. i've been saying that a week, two weeks or whatever. that doesn't mean you buy that breakout the last two insteness at as of similar setups it's not good time to buy the broad market. >> when i look at semi conductor much mallined and appropriately a volatile trade they've been making successive highs since last june. and i look at the breakout in the banks not just jp morgan citi bank and bank of america breaking into all-time highs it's a place we wanted to be for markets. and i think it's a place where you managed expectations on the global economy priced in the fed that may not be friend but not foe. and i think that's very important. and then the rest of the world outperforming. look at the trade markets of the world. germany, the dax outperforming the s&p by 6% the last month that's amazing amount. >> you think the foe could

become foe quickly meaning next week if they say listen we're done, then the fed is foe. >> fed is foe based upon market expectations but not foe in terms of policy. the fed is not doing anything aggressive they're not in a position. in anything we fight the repoe crisis that gives you stealth easing they don't want to talk about. yes, positioning in the market can be fearful around the fed. but right now the fetid is not rocking the boat. >> i'm so excited because first of all this is 75% of the '08 team constitutes 60% of our show tonight. great math like sat thing. >> like a puzzle. >> it's like a puzzle. but i came one a new game. often i say i'm a participant but often find myself a viewer in this case friend or foe would be a great. >> foe foe not faux. >> rock 'n' roll man friend or

faux >> don't discount intel was great. don't discount president trump's friday seemingly every week tweet that the chinese are dieing to make a deal. don't think that didn't help today's market action as well. it seems every friday at a certain time we hear how eager the chinese are to make a deal i thought we made a deal by the way. i thought we had phase one in place. i think that's helping the market. >> can i say something small on -- back to danny downer on this stuff, because i would say that in the smort run with the vix now with a 12 handle look where we've been every time dipping below 13 it's a time to be cautious on the market doesn't have to be tomorrow. but it's hard to get to the complacent stage for the market in terms of volatility >> save that for oa. >> 75% of the oa team. >> you made fun of me you got it wrong. >> i didn't get anything wrong. >> you can think about the vix getting down to the levels sub13 or sub12 kind of a relative

strength indicator of sorts. that's what it it is when the mechanic goes sharply higher consistently you're going to see that coming down. that's a function of the way the volatility markets are priced. it isn't as if people are saying okay now i'm kplasen because the market is higher it's a function of the market going higher i would say that with respect to earnings we have a couple of heavyweights and kaerpg the bay as far as the market is concerned. but don't we don't see complacenticy in individual issues gaming stocks announcing earnings priced as valuations probably close to 5 or 7-year lows essentially this is not a situation where people are overly bulled occupy on those stocks. we have industrial names, saul you will smaller ones not carrying the market this way or that but obviously a lot a lot of skems nims axle board and warner it's not as if everybody is bullish on every name reporting next woke. that makes me feel good. >> the level of complacency is just as it was back in july 25th, as it was april 25th

all the things we are talking about. stabilization on some of data that we've been worried about. talking about a fed not hurting so much. we're talking about things that eased on the trade front so, you know, i doept love that setup. you brought up the vix at 13. >> that's my point. >> apple at all-time high on the up 56% on the year trading $1.1 trillion market cap you can buy the at the money call including earnings next we can for 2% of the stock price. 2% of the stock price. the stock is up 56%. amazon was down 8% in the after market last night when people thought it was bad i'm just saying there is a level of complacency that we have seen two other occasions in 2019 both instands resulted in a 6.5 peak to trough decline in the '08. >> you get that when you have a desk that's actually 75% oa and 6 oh% of the overall desk. you get that blend and it's actually very effective.

>> it's a pinot noir. >> nobody likes his own material more than guy. >> laugh track, there it is. >> how does apple set up to dan's point going into earnings it's had a monster run. >> if you ask me both facebook and apple set up such you see the big move to the upside in both i think in terms of facebook it pushes to all-time high. in terms of apple i wouldn't be surprised to see apple north of 250 and that being the high for next couple weeks. >> apple was the name no one thought got back for the old highs here into this print, i think expectations are incredibly high. we started to talk about the tv services being a game changer when when they announced we said not a game changer but at least in the game. and i think we have to be careful about this even though as someone long apple and investor versus a trader we have that conversation all the time too. you can be an investor in apple based upon where i think this multiple is going. but i had to play the rsi, play the positioning right now, play the options market, my guess is i'd be protecting myself.

>> as trader what direction duping apple goes in. >> i actually feel like we're probably towards the upper end of the range my own personal take one of the reasons people are enthusiastic that doesn't move the needle for them right now. it's a de minimus things earnings are the times that becomes reality. you actually look at the hard numbers and that's what everyone is thinking about. and we have had quite a run here to me i'd probably be looking to protect my position in apple if i had one and i don't. >> okay, last october, before the earnings, apple went -- wait hold onned -- apple wasn't from $233 to january 2nd trading in the after market at $132 okay, $45% peak to trough decline. and which did it happen? it happened because they missed the units massively in iphones in china and you tell me if china is so much better, i just don't know is it 5 a% better than it was in january second or whatever the number is to the upside tom i

think expectations have gotten wildly wildly out of lean for what they're able to do in one of the most important markets one of the most iter attive phones they've had before. >> there are already fiefgt phones on the market in china. >> that's the story of apple it's why it the most important company in the world to some the pendulum of emotion always creams too far one way or the other. if you think about the drawdown, a lot of that was the market itself drawing down. we had extraordinary drawdown in fourth quarter of 2018 taking all the stocks to extreme levels if you were in overbought stock you were that much oversold. >> guys, the most important earnings report next woke aside from facebook and apple. >> throw out the calendar occupant. >> can you throw up the calendar those are the two i say are the most important i'm taking a gander because off the top of my head i don't know what they are.

i'll tell you right now. >> alphabet. >> alphabet. thank you, it's like you're inside my head. >> how does that feel. >> not good but i think google on monday is the most important of the week. yes. >> tim. >> i think master card is interesting because what we have been seeing in payments and we had such good news out of visa i think some of the industrials are interesting. i know m is not changing market sentiment but we are questioning where the value stocks that are industrial plays that are caught in the trade war that could be you know somewhere near the top of both peak labor and in terms of peak autos. gm is a stock i like i want to hear about demand and hear how companies operate in the environment. >> coming up the home construction etf on a tare this a foundation more leg high are oh will investors hit the heads on the roof hammer that out. plus a big week for beyond meat earnings important but so is the stock lock expiration. we will tell what you that could mean for them.

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money. home builders constructing quite the rally this year. in group is up more than 50% with names like len nar and poulty hitting fresh 52 weeks highs. and dr horton preponderate are you putting in a down payment upon the home builders we thought about this bus of the note sfr fund saturate tom lee he wrote from october 20th to around april 20th it's a golden period of six months for the home builders. that's when they really perform, the seasonal period and when interest rates rise it's better for the trade. >> you see a company like poulty homes. third quarter order rate up 13% year over year, the et best since 2006 or something. the numbers back it up valuations back it up. the one concern is the name like phm from the middle of all to now. from 30 to 42 that's a significant move but to answer the original question, the highs in no i think these things can

overshoot to the upside and go higher from here. >> i remember reading this note last year at this time tom put it for you to and worked like a classroom. >> nine out of the past ten years it worked. >> october 20th to april together 20th. talking outperformance they have had a nice run okay and interest rates going up off low levels that helps the housing i would worry about home improvement names like home depot which had a run. if you see this outperformance and you see the home depot and lowes come in a bit. >> we have mass cocoming in well in advance of names like depot reporting in early november. i mean, as you point out these things have had quit a run but it's fair to say they're not overwhelmingly expensive they should and they legitimately do trade as a significant discount to the market a lot of these things trade low double digits and better managed than they have been. we've been talking about this a couple weeks it's often a difficult

situation. you have a stock up a lot but if it's well managed and reasonable valuation and seasonably strong period that's not a reason to sell it. >> you also bet on the consumer. >> it's a big bet on the consumer but there are structural issues in the housing market independent of the consumer and also how the guys run businesses i think if you see upgrades in poulty a lot are because the the gross margins have never been this good. these guys are taking advantages of the operational efficiencies they have. i kind of agree with dan on the home improvement names i hate to say this as much as i love home depot and lowes and still in an environment where the consumer is a job and in an environment where i think they have some disposable income, i think they will be -- i would rather be in the renovation trade but i get a little worried we are somewhere near the peak labor point where the companies tlaeft a home depot or low lo lowes are under pressure. >> mow mach is trz >> carpets >> flooring. >> part of the renovation trade.

>> it's interesting i understand what tim says about home depot november 19th is when they report and there is runway to then i think they can levitate into the earnings numbers i don't think at 21.5 times next year's numbers it's that expensive. watch what i do. trade it not fade hd into earnings. >> nice. you didn't impose your own rules pick your poison or love tor leave it or shop it or drop it. >> no. >> okay. coming up beyond meat down 50% in the last three months and facing a big week ahead. we'll tell you how to trade the stock. much more "fast money" coming up next

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money. beyond meat getting malled by the bears ahead of the monday earnings with shares falling a percent today adding to the 33% decline for the month of october. that stock now 55% off the july highs as investors prepare for the post ipo lock up period to expire tuesday at which .80% of the fake meat maker float will be eligible to trade on the public market. what can we expect, tim. >> i think we can get more return to earth in terms of the expectations for what the growth of this company can be relative to valuation it's absurd, okay. it's nice to see that markets eventually are efficient and we get back to some of this was around capital markets dynamics of lockups and where there was a kweez there was a lot of people playing from the sr. shortside a lot of people pushed out positions. but fundamentally to sayny food company worth salt understanding trends on wellness and health and consumer preferences any will be in the space and compete with these

guys at a multiple more like 10 let alone a hundred. >> a multiple of ten would be a stock price of what. >> i'm just. >> that would be a fraction. >> i'm looking -- i'm looking at tyson, nestle. and say where do the companies trade, high are than that but not a lot higher than that. >> the industry doesn't trade at rich multiples you're right we in a massive short interest in the stock, still do that has a lot to do with the price behavior you are not going to want to own something into the lock up expiring in a name like this especially given -- look, their business promise could be enormous i'm sure it is but that doesn't justify the valuation. they will have getters be be assigned a lower multiple once there is maturity in the industry that's a dangerous place to be if you are going to be looking for stocks to buy here. >> i and the product doesn't grow with you guy. >> nor does it with you. >> or me actually. >> or you. >> okay. >> no, it does. >> it's a dangerous. >> it does -- i shouldn't say

does -- that complies it did a terrible thing one and only time let's be careful with that said i never thought it was going to 200 but i know when we price theed secondary at 160 we said do not get back in the stock unless you get a close above. never got above it i don't see it compelling either at next year ten times earnings probably a $5 stock. still too rich at $100. >> back to the secondary for all the griping like the one-day pop and giving the money away, whatever it's interesting they sold 11 million shares at $25 then that was on the ipo the secondary three months later. sold less than 4 million at $160 and took in almost twice as much as the ipo that makes the company more survivable than any of us want to think despite the bear cases i'm not making a bullish call. but interesting they had the opportunity to do that and put the carbon the balance sheet

i suspect it was corporate shares that sort of thing. when you see something round trip like that this overhang coming it probably pb rallies out of it people have been trading in front of it for weeks. >> one thing to make clear with the amount of carbon the balance sheet, the company isn't at risk they have negative cashfully of 20 some odd million a year and 300 million in cash. it's just about valuation. >> final trade times around the horn. >> google next week important. best in member of phang. wind chill it break at 1,300 that would be powerful for the stock. >> mike cho. >> looking at penn gaming into earnings next we can and trying to see if there is read through into other names reporting a little bit later on like wynn but i think the valuations look a little depressed. >> dan nagten. >> the apple the ran run into next we can. er when you consider the guidance that they should give it should be cautious into a lot of unknowns into a quarter that they really messed up last year. to me i'm not a buyer into the print here. >> guy. >> and almost 13 years

pinot noir. >> is that the first time we've mentioned pinot noir before. >> it's not the first time it's not the first time you patted yourself on the back for something humorous. >> final trade. >> wneayedsd. >> don't go anywhere, "options action" is up next ns? rigorous fundamental research. with portfolio managers focused on the long term. who look beyond the spreadsheets to understand companies, from breakroom to boardroom. who know the only way to get a 360 view is to go around the world to get it. can i rely on deep research to help make quality investment decisions? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. talk to your advisor or consultant but in my mind i'm still 25. that's why i take osteo bi-flex, to keep me moving the way i was made to. it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex - now in triple strength plus magnesium.

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happy friday everybody it's tame for "options action. here is what we have on deck for the show >> announcer: coming up on the big show, carter werth. >> so, if i did google him what would i find >> you'd find he thinks the search giant could be breaking out then. >> all birds into final bounce mode. >> if you think the twitter bird lost enough altitude mike khouw has a safer way to take wing in the near term plus. >> my friends all call me x. >> but you can call it u.s. steel and can you call him dan nathan he tells you how to