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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  November 12, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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that will do it for the exchange i will saunter on over and join melissa on power lunch which begins right now do saunter we'll see you in a moment. president trump speaking about trade tensions with china moments ago and he said china is dying to make a deal we'll bring you all the headlines. a multibillion dollar glitch disney plus launching with technical errors but could it be a good sign. wall street is crowning both names retail royalty a top analyst joins us to explain why. power lunch starts right now the dowis off the session highs but we are still higher by just two tenths of a percent the s&p below 3100 by three
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points that key level broached 3100 for first time ever. the nasdaq is higher today all three of the major indices are on track for more record closier close closers. president trump said trade deals with china could happen. eamon is there and has the details. >> reporter: that's right. the big question going into the speech today was would the president say anything specific about china give us any dates or locations any indication of where this signing ceremony might take place. the answer is no he didn't give us any specials. here is what he did say. >> we're the ones that are deciding whether or not we want to make a deal we're close. a significant trade one deal with china it would happy it could happen soon
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we will only accept a deal if it's good for the yiet for our workers and great companies. >> a little vague there on the specifics. the president also really lashing out at some of his critics including democrats on capitol hill and the federal reserve. the president saying he wants to see negative interest rates in this country he says the economic boom in this country would be much better if the federal reserve would cooperate with him and do as he's been asking. he said negative interest rates are happening around the world and they should happen in the yi united states. stocks once again today continuing their salt assault on report highs. >> the president speech not market mover but it didn't need to because we're at new highs. major indicesnew high. that's been really strong.
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they have been at new highs. same new high list that we saw last week here i want to highlight general e lek tri. it was $9. look at this move. we're talking a 20% move here. that's a new 52-week high for general electric we are seeing break outs with the cyclical groups. general transports, materials. even the fund managers are getting optimistic global growth expected to improve in 2020. doesn't sound like much. they have been pessimistic for most of this year. this is change in attitude another change in attitude of
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the most crowded trade stocks. that's important because the old one was u.s. treasuries. that's inverted now and tech is the big long outfit. back to you. >> thank you, bob. the president saying there's no uncertainty when i comes to the u.s. trade war with china. let's bring in chief u.s. economist for jpmorgan the president saying he's on the precipice of the phase one deal but if there's no trade deal that the tariffs will be raised stoppable stanlly. the markets had very little reaction >> it's not good enough. if you go back to march 2018
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when the tariff and trade talk escalated, the median stock among large mid small cap stocks is up 5% the good marks the president gets for the stock market returns at the first half of administration on tax cuts, regulatory sensibility, renewing entrepreneurial spirits, that's given way to uncertainty where tariffs have been. i think the biggest over hang on stocks even moving higher. >> i'm wondering if in your data it does seems capex leads from the earnings we got and the data we have, we have seen a depressive impact on capital expenditur expenditures >> we know that capex spending has contracted in the second and
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third quarter. looks like it may do so in fourth quarter we can't say uncertainty is the policy you can't really distinguish with perfect precision what is caused by trade policy, uncertainty versus what may be slowing political growth or some slowing and profit growth but that does get highlighted in a lot of the surveys we look at. >> michael, who was in the room since you were there who are your fellow audience members and what was the mood like what was the reception like? >> it's a couple thousands people i don't know who every one was i know a few people i saw.
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the mood was good. the speech was peppered with some jokes and people liked that the mood was fine. i don't know who was entirely in the room >> let me turn to you, david and pick up an a couple of themes there. the president talked about how higher interest rates have put us at a disadvantage globally. do you feel that way and the stock market would be 25 to 40% higher than it is today if interest rays were lower than they are today and maybe even at zero or below. >> the president gets good marks on tax cuts and regulatory sensibility in my view he didn't get good grades on undue criticism of the federal reserve board for saying we should have negative interest rates. is there any u.s. investor or business person who would trade places with most of europe and
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japan who have lived with negative interest rates in the fall out because of a weak economy and weaker stock prices. the president loses me when he criticizes the fed or talks about the virtues of negative interest rates our cost to capital is low to businesses to skucceed and nowish >> low r interest rates, let's say lower instead of negative would mean weaker dollar which could be beneficial to a lot of companies and the stock market how do you parse out the corr t correctness of the president's statement? >> one way ke can think about this is the look at a variety of policy rules there's a number of those. most suggest that policy rates
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in the neighborhood of where they are now is appropriate. i think most economists that i know think that rates maybe they could be 25 basis points lower or higher. i don't hear a lot of mainstream who think we need to go more stimlative we're pretty close to price stability as defined by federal reserve. policy seems to be in a good place. the economy is in a good place it's not clear that we need either more restraint or more stimulus >> thaunk you very much. boeing releasing it lgs october numbers and the number fo wat to watch the cancels numbered for the 737 max. >> we have the answers
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overall the numbers were pretty unimpressive but nobody was expecting much the company did see a decline of 11 net orders. 11 net orders. that's how much it fell in the month of october as for the 737 max, they saw a declean in overall orders by 18 aircraft people who had orders for the max who have said let's convert that into another plane in the boeing line up when you look at the backlog of the 737 max, it stand bs s at 46 planes it was down about 133 planes compared to one year ago when it comes to the max basically adjusting their portfolio a little bit take a look at shares of boeing. keep this mind the company has said that it expects the faa to
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certify the 737 max next month that is the expectation of the company. nothing is written in stone. the faa add min straministrator speaking right now in washington, d.c. if he says anything regarding the max, we'll let you know. >> they may have to wait longer for future plane to be certified because boeing is so tied up with the recertification of the max. >> the ceo said our customers and they need to meet demand it's not uncommon to add just
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portfolios i wouldn't read too much into these 18 cancellatilations on te max. that bag log of 4400 is strong especially if you're building 42, 57 a month whatever the rate will be in the next year. >> that's almost two a day >> thank you coming up, will the next six weeks be a boom or bust for retailers. top retail analysts gives us hot picks for holiday season power lunch will be right back only one thing's more exciting than than getting a lexus... giving one. this is unbelievable! >>it really is. the lexus december to rembember sales event lease the 2020 rx 350 all wheel drive
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welcome back retail reyes gearing up for the christmas shopping spree walmart and target are poised to be holiday winners according to analysts from both banks walmart up 28% and target up 66% or 64% as we have on the graphic. both out performing the xrt. that's the etf let's bring in the bank of americaa agnalyst who made the call good to have you with us >> thanks for having me. >> one of the concerns that i believe we raised on the program
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yesterday is that both of these stocks are fairly richly priced or at the very at least have had nice runs in 2019. does that give you any pause at all. do you still think they have more space to grow >> i think they have more space because they deserve that valuation because look at the impressive same store sales both of the companies have been putting up with the last several quarters >> what are they doing right and take me one at a time. what is walmart doing right? there's a lot of people five, eight years ago who thought walmart is sucking some wind here and the same question for target what's target doing right? >> walmart improved in grocery and online
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they are one of the retailers that are driving positive traffic. >> how about target? >> for target, a similarly significant change is to their sort that's allowed them to go after the apparel business in a big way. there's over a billion dollars of apparel sells they have gone after the toy business for the closure of toys r us and have done a great job with their buy online and pick up strategy. >> what do you think about the tariffs, the december 15th tariffs if they go into effect the holiday season won't be impacted because much of the merchandise has been brought in or sitting in some warehouse but going forward i would mimagine the goods they bring in will be hit by tariffs how do you think about that?
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>> that's a great question i was just in asia pa sick last month visiting with manufacturing partners of people like target and waumgt one of the advantages that both those retailers has is they are very large they've got scales they are very well positioned to mitigate the tariffs with support from their partners over in china >> let's talk a bit about the view of consumers. do you see any hesitance on their part to spend a, any kindo retracement in their optimism or not? >> it looks a lot of macro factors for consumers. one of the things it continues sthoe fr to show is that the lowest income cohert continues to grow their spending in a much faster pace than the upper and middle income coherts that bodes well for target and walmart.
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we haven't seen any slow down in momentum you're still seeing things like strong new home sale, labor participation rate continues to improve. this is good news for the core walmart customer and to a certain extent the target customer >> thank you very much >> thanks for having me. coming up, a rocky day for disney plus. u yo don't want the picture freezing during frozen but this could be a good sign in nasdaq hitting a new record high. the sunny surge continues. we have that story next on power lunch. no commission. delivery drones, or the latest phones. no commission. no matter what you trade, at fidelity you'll pay no commission for online u.s. equity trades. at fidelity you'll pay no commission i wouldn't be here if i thought reverse mortgages, took advantage of any american senior, or worse, that it was some way to take your home.
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mpl got a market flash >> facebook owns what'sapp is scaling back its use of twilio unclear whether this is pegged to those ongoing privacy concerns around facebook but twilio has noted that what'sapp is a big customer. we are looking shares trading down by as much as 1.4%. back to you. >> thank you very much
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let's go to mike for trading nation >> thank you very much we're going to get a check on the chips right here in a moment building on a recent break out today closing in on fresh records but after a 9% rally in the past month, can this semi surge last todd gordon of trading analysis. no question this is a leadership group in this rally. maybe the only question are they starting to run too hot at this point? >> i don't think so. if you look at the long term chart here, we've been channelling quite well we might not see -- we won't see resistance until about 150 on the up side. you look at names like amd, breaking a down trend, a 20-year down trend i think there's a strong possibility we continue. there we go. real quick we're not going to fall in to
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resisting until about 150. all the way from the credit crisis low i like the group pretty long history of leading the stocks in semiconductor demand does that make sense to you? >> maybe i think what we're looking at is a catch up trade i think active managers are trying to find the hotmomentum group. i think that works into the end of the year. we're not a fan of facing momentum traders can play the same type of catch up trade. look at the small cap index. an index that hasn't done anything this year i think you've got a really nice risk reward bying the iwm with a 5% stock
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>> thaunk you very much head to our website or follow us on twitter tyler, back to you ahead, one department store wants you to fork over some serious gold to see santa. we're not talking cookie dough disney's whole new world disney plus launching today. juul expected to cut 650 jobs as it looks to cut costs. the burning question, what's next for the vaping industry all this when power lunch returns. we call it the mother standard of care.
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. welcome back here is your cnbc news update. white house acting chief mick mulvaney says he no longer plans to sue and will follow president trump's directions and decline to cooperate it's the latest reversal in position by mulvaney former trump add visor roger stone walking into court as his trial for lying to congress continues. former trump campaign aid rick gates testifying that stone asked for jared kushner's information in order to debrief him about hacked e-mails nikki haley appearing on the today show today to promote her new book she says she has made up her mind regarding the trump impeachment inquiry. >> i mean impeachment is literally the worst punishment you could do to a public official here you have a situation where there was no investigation and the aid flowed as it was supposed to. when you look at that situation
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it's hard to see where impeachment would qualify for that >> you are up to date. that's the news update back to you. >> thank you let's look at the markets now. we have the dow. it turned negative we're down by three point ons the industrials right now. s&p 500 gave up the 3100 level it's up by four points nasdaq up. it's time for the day's power movers w winner winner chicken diner. tyson foods higher the company bullish on next year expecting alternative meat to gain momentum. rockwell automation having its best day since 2009. the ceo telling me last hour that the electric vehicle production provided a big boost and in the next 20 years electric cars and trucks will make up more than half of the vehicles on the road globally. shares of advanced auto parts are stalling
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earnings beat preponderaexpects. the stock is down. the long awaited launch of disney plus is here but so far there's been some glitches >> hiccups and glitches due to demand for this app that is disney's big bet yet and a way from the traditional tv bundle this morning when disney plus launched at 6:00 a.m. eastern, about 7,000 people reported streaming errors disney saying the consumer demand has exceeded our highest expect expectations we are pleased but are aware of the issues and working to resoever them. we appreciate your patience. it's launching with 8,000 tv episodes and films from its library plus ten original series and two original f naa naal fils it's flagship star wars win off
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getting an 89% positive critics rating on rotten tomatoes while lady and the tramp remake has a 68% rating disney plus will reach as many as 90 million subscribers in the next five years. it's also hoping to grow its hulo and espn plus advertising business its bundling disney plus, hulu with ads and espn plus for 13 there are. that's a $5 discount bper month. >> will disney plus be game changer in the streaming wars and what might it mean for the stock? robert thompson is a tv radio and film professor you taught a lot of my co-workers here and they are all geniuses they are just brilliant. >> taught them everything they know >> must be the teaching. my question is what percentage
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of your students subscribe to cable or have tv sets. you got a guess. >> i've asked them i have a class of about 120 that i see every week and fewer than 10 go home to a place with the tv set when they go home for the holidays their parents have television sets but when they go to their dorms or apartments or their sorority houses almost all of tv viewing they are doing under devices and they are streaming. very, very -- >> you can infer from that that the streaming services are the future >> they are not the future, they are the present. while it's true this was the first year that subscribers who streaming exceed worldwide subscribers through cable an satellite, i think the streaming thing is here. everybody keeps saying disney changes everything, everything has already changed. disney is just confirming it
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will continue. >> you better have a streaming solution or you'll be left in the dark >> that's right. i think understand from the professor why the trends favoring the migration from linear television. disney plus la the most compelling entry yet into this space. >> in terms of thinks about the different streaming services, what criticism if you can have one is they have entered into an arms race in terms of content spent with the likes of netflix and apple. you have a player like a comcast that have ad supported model, how do you think about the models in future could an ad supported model be the ticket? part of it is paid for you're making money off of part of that service. >> the wap we think about it is the streaming war is not one huge battle. it's kind of playing out on multiple fronts of which you've got the ad supported, subscriber
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based and across various genres. the about d think about disney playing in three of those areas whether it's content, name recognition, the brand, things of that nature netflix is much more specialized realm. it's got much bigger head start in this. over the long term i would be surprised within their category of subscriber based i would argue they will survive. >> let me turn to you. if disney is so successful in streaming as most people we talk to seem to think it will be, can you imagine a time, i sound like
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a movie, in a world where -- can you imagine a world where disney might decide to shed some of its traditional networks like abc, maybe even the openership of sf espn does a the costs embedded to buy the right to air a television program is so high that it's more economical to deliver streaming services and work off the library and rent shows rather than buy them >> well, disney is currently bundling hulu, espn plus and the disney channel you can get that for 12.99 or disney for 6.99. i think they are seeing themselves as this empire of content. all of which they will be able to mobilize in all kinds of different ways we should remember that moefs the research projects that five years from now in 2025 netflix will still be number one in
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streaming with about twice as many subscribers as disney that's a projection, not necessarily the truth and amazon prime will still be number two and disney will come in at number three that sounds about right given both the formidable catalog that's almost 100 years old in the kacase of disney but the he start and added services, head start with netflix and added services with amazon prime >> media companies trying to protect the core revenue stream and not cannibalize that, i think that's where i vesters will be watching while we have this card cutting phenomenon and continue that. how does the company respond in terms of balancing a business like streaming with huge potential but in the meantime a lot of pain and losses how can you be sure that inflection point is going to make up for the decline in
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traditional business >> we've been saying this for years. the death of cable is the death of cable really here this time >> i think it's called death by a thousands cots it's not going to happen immediately. it's certainly a kind of a sustained steady phenomenon. >> melissa's question leads right into mine. you have comcast, our parent company which is a big cable provider has a strong buy at 54. >> that's right. >> cable is dying why is comcast -- >> so well positioned. >> comcast has pulled up one of the most compelling acquisitions i think their timing was very forth with us.
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>> they'll have their own streaming platform as well >> that's while the broadband business continues to be the bread and butter, the move favors the core broadband business >> that's more of a head scratcher to me. >> every company looking to their core advantage if cost cat is rolling out the peacock for free that's because the broadband business is going to be a major beneficiary of this broader trend. >> thank you for coming out again. always good to have you here >> professor thompson thanks for lending us a few of your students >> thank you >> we appreciate it. to the bond market now rick tracking all the action
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hey, rick. >> hey big talk today it prepares for one of the largest corporate issuances of allerge allergens. this is the same size as comcast big deal last year in october of 2018 it's tied for fourth place for 27 billion for the fourth largest issuance ever. what's that doing to the marketplace? look at the 24 hour chart of ten. it's bit bepredepressed. a lot of hedging they are not moving down much. the high water mark, a highest yield. the smallest negative in about 17 weeks and finally the tlar index. today's high 98.42 is the highest trade in four weeks going back to october of this
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cnbc unveiling its third annual list of the upstart 100 this year's list features 25 companies led by women kate joins us from san francisco with more on the story hey, kate. >> hey melissa really broad range of female founders and ceos in this year upstart list we have health care companies, county sum consumer retails all started by women. data shows that women are historically under represented in the start up world. that's slowly changing new data out from pitch book today joined women raised 46 billion last year making up 20% of total investments still a small piece of the pie
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that's more than double the total from 2017. it shows no sign of slowing down this year. another key fighting for investors, female led companies are out performing the number of exits for companies with at least one female founder is growing faster year over year and companies with male founders analysts attribute it to growing market awareness of gender equality and see an increase in mentorship networks and a rise in female general partners guys >> thank you very much here is a taste of some of the other stories wall street bonuses could drop this year. they could face cuts as big as 15% while fixed income traders could see their bonuses fall 5%. it's not down across the board hedge fund workers and those in private equity could see 5%
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increases in their bonuses a good year for private equity and hedge funds. equity trading you think would be doing well. >> there was more volatility in the bond markets and interest rate products. >> trading action there. >> exactly dean foods has got milk but apparently no one wants to drink milk filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy as it faces continuing sales decline. consumers drinking away from drinking milk and turning to alternatives like almonds and soy. dean foods plans to continue operating until it can find a buyer. >> walmart changes everything. when they g when they get into a business >> their scale >> dean had white wave which is like silk and they spun that business off >> they should come to my house.
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we'll keep them in business. my son who is turning 14 soon, he must go through at least two gallons of milk a week >> two gallons of milk >> absolutely. >> a big boy >> we have an extra wing just to house the milk santa claus, he already knows if you're naughty or nice. now he wants to know how much cash you spend at one department store. londons is restricting santa visits to those who spend over $2,500 in store during the first half of the year the eligibility to the secret forest grato is already passed it opened november 15th and lasts until christmas eve. >> secret forest grato if that's the only way you can see santa at r harrods. >> they did reserve slots for
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low lower income families. coming up, hundreds more job cuts from juul the latest on the vaping backlash plus legal marijuana hadn't delivered a high for invisein veo investors. the stock is down. can the numbers turn the stock around we'll be right back. this piece is talking to me. yeah? so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity. i see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah. td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪
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welcome back juul is planning to can you want around 16% of its workforce as the industry continues to face scrutiny over health risks and jennifer levito joins us now with those details this is an industry under assault. >> yes, it is. today juul is saying it will cut about 650 of its jobs or 16% of its workforce. the company was hiring around 300 employees a month. it was growing that quickly. and these cuts will affect multiple departments in various countries. the marketing department will be hit especially hard, because if you recall, in september, juul suspended all u.s. product advertising. the company will also cut about $1 billion in costs next year, and the changes are part of the new ceo, casey krothwait's strategic review of the company. and the company decided that its copy priorities will be reducing
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underage access, inventing in research to support its upcoming application with the fda, and developing new technology. so one area that will actually grow is the product team and that team will explore technology to prevent underage use, such as its blue tooth connected quis >> how are they going to compensate for the fact that its most popular product, this mint-flavored vape juice, is out of the game? that's almost -- for youth, it certainly was their number one >> it's a good question, but you also have to remember that juul pulled its most popular fruity flavors. creme, cucumber, mango, and fruit. at the time, those flavors accounted for 50% of the company's revenue. and it still is in business. and of course, a lot of people switched to mint, so perhaps they switch to tobacco or menthol. some might quit altogether, but there is a good chance that people just switch flavors >> angelica, thank >> thank you well, pot stocks have flamed out so far in 2019 with the
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vaping epidemic as one of the many headwinds facing the cannabis industry. as we look towards tilray results after the bell, could we expect a comeback from the top marijuana players? joining us now to delve into the weeds, so to speak, is our very own tim seymore. >> oh, my. >> i knew you'd appreciate that, tim. >> i love a good pun >> he's been at the keown cannabis conference tracking the latest industry trends great to have you with us. a lot of canadian aps are reporting, all this week, and i'm wondering, because vaping so far hasn't been a huge part of their story, because they haven't been sold in canada yet -- >> right, right. >> but they are going to be selling in canada, the vaping products, as early as december 15th is this going to affect them i mean, this -- what's happening in the united states to the industry >> so melissa, first of all, and boston keown's got a big institutional event. i think the industry continues to grow in sophistication despite the capital market's death spiral, really but you ask about the canadian
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lps. what's a driver for them people were looking at 2.0 in canada, which meant derivative products, which meant gummies, topicals, edibles, this time of growth in the product line and to be clear, the addressable market in canada is still significantly smaller than i think people even gave it credit for. so the problem with the big canadian lps is they raised a lot of money i think our viewers in the audience and investors know a lot about the capital markets dynamics, which has put canadian companies as a listing advantage. but the reality is, unless they have a global platform, growing alone in canada is not really going to do it you saw that this morning with one of the big canadian lps. their financial revenue fell 42%, which was devastating tilray is going to announce tomorrow morning you're going to get a sense of where their top line is growing. their revenues are expected to come in somewhere around $50 million, which will be about a 10% sequential growth. people are looking at the gross margin, but when you're talking about tilray, this was a stock
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that was $115 a year ago and the real story is probably on their u.s. cbd business right now. their manitoba brand is growing very nicely. they're in a thousand stores, 1,500 stores across the u.s. it's their jv and strategic partners in abi and authentic brands and sandos that i think got people very excited in the name back to canada, if anything, we're seeing an inventory glut, we're seeing a slower rollout of 2.0. and i think the expectations that the companies are delivering, in fact, organagram went out and said, we're not going to tell you about 2020 it's almost impossible it's a very difficult time for an investor. >> we got organogram that's scaring investors, but hexo earlier. one good thing that hexo did say is that pricing is going to stabilize. is that good news as far as how they'll use this space and which of these is the bellwether when it comes to their results and their commentary on the industry >> i think you have to listen to
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canopy on thursday they are the biggest they've had two difficult quarters in a row in terms of some sequential declines i actually think their gross margin will be better. look, a company that's got $3 billion in cash on their balance sheet at a time when a dollar allocated towards m&a or strategic is enormously interesting. investors i believe should think about it that way, too my guess is the big companies that have cash to spend are thinking about it that way and they're not going to be spending a lot. i think it's a more disciplined approach to the balance sheet. >> tim, thanks tim seymore. we should mention that tim has invested in a number of cannabis stocks for a full list of his disclosures, head on over to cnbc.com and don't forget to tune into the "closing bels"l' ceo brendan kennedy later this afternoon >> and check, please! is next. e, perfectly good food goes to waste. now, we've got away around that. looks good. we're on target. blockchain on the ibm cloud helps pinpoint a problem anywhere from farm to shelf.
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it's used by some of the biggest retailers everywhere. a nice wedge. so more food ends up on your table, is that daddy's lettuce? yeah. and less food goes to waste. ♪ ♪
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here's a story we didn't quite get to today and that's facebook shares are outperforming the broader markets, announcing today that it's launching a new payment services across its platform you can see the stock there up 2.3% the knockthon effect is we're seeing square as well as paypal shares go down this payment service will be peer-to-peer, so i can pay you >> it's a venmo competitor >> venmo-like. you can buy in-game products it's to make payments easier when you're on the platform. >> how much do you use payment services like venmo? do you use them? >> hardly ever >> you use paypal?
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>> no, inu use them a little bit >> but i find often if i go to a store, it takes me as long to use google pay or. >> it's so fast now with the chip >> it's good, but not life-changing. >> thanks for using "power lunch" >> "closing bell" right now. good afternoon welcome to the "closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost. i'm here at the disney post today. that stock was leading the dow to record all-time territory, but the rest of the dow now letting disney down. all three of the major indices are just below record closing territory. >> and i'm courtney reagan in today for sara eisen let's take a quick look at what's driving the action today. the president blasts the fed and calls for negative rates here in the u.s. but fails to offer any new details on trade negotiations with china. as wilfred mentioned, the dow, s&p, and nasdaq set new record highs, but that lack of clarity

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