>> it is 5:00 at cnbc global headquarters an early christmas present for the markets. new optimism around the phase one china deal bezos fights back over the jedi project that went to microsoft and a new bet for buffett.

why ray dalio is warning of a coming capital war between united states and china. >> and taylor shift not shaking it off her feud with two well-known music executives and she is taking it to new heights "worldwide exchange" starts now. >> i've got a feeling we'll be hearing a lot of taylor swift this morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan this morning friday november 15. dow up by about 95 points and nasdaq up about 37 we are on pace for the fourth straight positive week for the dow. yields have come off their

highs. 1.85% for the 10-year benchmark wise two-year 1.61% we are watching the difference between two-year and ten-year notes. let's go worldwide the nikkei up baut 7% and the shanghai off and the kospi seeing a big move there. hong kong economy has plunged into the first recession in a decade as violent protests paralyze the city. the second straight reading of contraction. we are possibly now, if you look at some measures, in recession in hong kong in european trade, the dax up .3

and cac up .6. this morning, it's trade dominating the headlines white house economic advisor saying late yesterday the u.s. and china are getting close to a trade agreement pointing to very constructive talks with beijing that could possibly end the 16-month trade war kudlow saying, quote, mood music is pretty good and that has not always been so we are also getting ready china vice premier will be holding principal level calls later on today. the deal between house democrats

and trump administration could be announced in the coming days trade very much a key focus. joining us now for all of this we've heard it before. positive trade sentiments and developments should we believe it this time around? >> this has been going on well over a year now. i don't want to buy on the good news i want to buy on the bad news. but for longer term, i am optimistic they'll get this phase one section done when they do, you can put your money on it >> the markets seem to have it

right. i mean every time we see headlines whether they are positive or negative, the markets don't seem to go up by 500 or 1,000 points, it is almost like the market is fine tuning >> i like your word of fine tuning when this first started, we would have more violent or volatile changes from the market and the news they've been slowly coming down. the market has grown more callous. fine tuning is a good word when we look at the places that have seen leadership, it has been in some of those trade sensitive areas in the market. heavy equipment manufacturers. is that a place investors still want to be adjusting their exposure given what we have seen or are there places we are

finding deeper value in the markets given what we've seen. i don't think you want to go reaching on any of this. these trade deals will come in faces. it is one deal to come together on agriculture another deal on infrastructure the place to hide out is on value. banks are the place to hide out. if you look at the large cap banks, they are up over 20%. you can get them on high single digits, low single digits. that works all the way down to banks like pack west that has a 6 percent e yield and is one of the top earners in the country then frost in texas has a strong yield. they are trading at a low pe

multiple there is a lot of places to hang out in banks and other areas like technology. i think i like apple and microsoft. instead of netflix, hang out in disney and at&t. this is a great market to be very discertaining and picky about what you are buying. >> we appreciate it. new this morning, errors and unmistakable bias are some of the words amazon is using to describe the selection process for the multi-billion dollar u.s. defense project ultimately awarded to microsoft this is one of the biggest rewards. for cloud computing. what is amazon alleging right now? >> amazon is challenging the

pentagon's award to microsoft. that contract is worth up to $10 billion. the company saying it will formally file a protest. the ceo of amazon web services said it would be challenging for a u.s. agency to be objective when the president is disbarraging one of the contestant in august, the president said amazon's bid for the contract was under review after complaints from other companies. amazon was considered the front runner and part of the broader effort to modernize the pentagon defense secretary mark esper rejected the claim >> i have not heard that claim

second, i recused myself from involvement on the competition i am confident it was conducted freely and fairly without any type of outside influence. >> meanwhile, esper recused him because his son works for ibm and they were also up for the contract >> thank you for that. when we come back, the on line retail winner not named amazon set to surge this morning plus the iea out with the latest report of global oil demand. later on, more pressure on underarmor as they speak out about questionable accounting practices at the company more ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns after this d. sales guy, give 'em the employee price, then gimme your foot. hands-free sliding doors, stow 'n go seats, man, y'all getting a hook up

and y'all don't even work here. pacificaaaaa! non-gmo, made with naturally sundown vitamins are all sourced colors and flavors and are gluten & dairy free. they're all clean. all the time. even if sometimes we're not. sundown vitamins. all clean. all the time.

>> cold as ice is probably what it feels like in chicago right now. coming up now on 4:12 a.m. central time in the windy city let's get a check on stocks on the move nvidia stronger than expected. also returning to a forecast of revenue growth after four consecutive quarters of declines the stock a fraction higher. a nice reversal.

staying on semiconductors. applied materials beating forecast shares of the chip maker rising today as it expects more customers to upgrade their gear ahead of the roll out of 5g. those shares up 5% there are shares of far fetch. they are surging after the company promises losses will narrow connecting shoppers around the world with high end labels such as gucci and prada those shares up 23% in the pre-market straight ahead, round two for public impeachment hearings as attention turns to two witnesses with unique owdgknlee of president trump's call with ukraine. "worldwide exchange" returns right after this break sundown vitamins are all

non-gmo, made with naturally sourced colors and flavors and are gluten & dairy free. they're all clean. all the time. even if sometimes we're not. sundown vitamins. all clean. all the time. whether your beauty routine is 3or 57,... make nature's bounty hair skin and nails step one. it's the number one brand uniquely formulated

for silky hair, glowing skin and healthy nails. nature's bounty, because you're better off healthy. >> welcome back. out with its monthly oil report. the group saying opec and allies face a major challenge in 2020 with surging rivals. joining us now, chief analyst. good morning take us through the highlights what do you think was the most important take away from this

monthly report >> it looked very good the demand numbers are still the same they continue to overestimate the prospects for next year, they've got about 2.2 million barrels of growth. they are saying that is why they need to cut production they see the call on crude they need to balance the market from falling we have similar numbers on our overall liquids balance. that doesn't distinguish between the crude oil and liquids market that influence that the crude numbers are incredibly tight we see to be drops into next year there is this big problem the iae is not addressing. >> let's get more into that

problem. there is a gap in communication and expectations how does that reconcile itself in the coming months we are entering a seasonally more slow time in the united states for the mrg market. what does that mean for the sphere the market has struggled on this throughout the year. we've been around $60 brent for most of the year yet, if you look at the physical market, that has been some of the strongest we've seen across all contracts for years. some people will tell you this is the strongest physical market we've seen ever. there are physical crude trading at record premiums and refining margins really come under

pressure the reason we've got this is precisely because when you do a liquids balance, it is showing the surplus. seeing this play out, it is new for the market it will take some time we do think next year we realize that crude is tight and oil prices should go higher. squ >> when you say higher, how high does it go are we heading back to 100 for brent or more modest moves to the upside >> i would say modest moves to the upside we should be in the 70s even right now. for that, you absolutely need more clarity on the u.s./china trade war. that is a whole new set of

discussions where we stand right now. demand growth has been weak. we are still growing about a million barrels per day. the main thing is that people need certainty for cap ex spending to come back. it is going to be a modest recovery pure fundamentals, there is no reason why crude can't trade into the 80s if u.s./china trade talks were to give us some meaningful result. >> thank you for those thoughts, we appreciate it >> thank you >> still on deck world cup champion megan rapinoe fighting for equal for for women. and why jeff bezos may be looking to expand his brand to seattle and more in sports when we come back it is nice.

nice? this is the most-awarded minivan three years in a row. the van just talked. sales guy, give 'em the employee price, then gimme your foot. hands-free sliding doors, stow 'n go seats, man, y'all getting a hook up and y'all don't even work here. pacificaaaaa! to take care of yourself. but nature's bounty has innovative ways to help you maintain balance and help keep you active and well-rested. because hey, tomorrow's coming up fast. nature's bounty. because you're better off healthy.

>> a live shot of the capital the weather forecast there, currently 30 degrees high of 52 today 10% chance of some rain or snow. those permanent selection hearings on the impeachment hearings later today >> here is what you can expect

today. an am because door who says the president pushed her out of her job. she testifies publicly today and private testimony from a career diplomat who claims he overheard an inkrem nating conversation. the second day of hearings begins this morning with testimony from former ukraine ambassador according to a transcript, she told lawmakers she was a victim of a smear campaign by president trump and his allies that got her fired. >> it represents the president abusing his office to remove an ambassador to run his shake down skooem >> i'm really over with this this whole thing is a joke >> the question is there is nothing there is impeachable >> at a rally last night, president trump told supporters hearings are taking a toll on

his family >> it has been very unfair, very hard on my family. >> democrats are using a new word to describe president trump withholding aid in exchange for a favor. it is perfectly wrong. it is bribery. >> david holmes said he overheard a phone conversation between president trump and european ambassador discussing ukraine investigations >> if you are trying to eavesdrop in a conversation with someone on a phone and in a crowded restaurant, good luck. >> the president does not remember that conversation >> but gordon sondlin will testify next week on that. next week, more to help navigate the john gog adintre war. more when "worldwide exchange" is back after this

as a principal i can tell you this. when one student gets left behind, we all get left behind. this is a problem that affects each and every one of us. together with ibm, we created a whole new kind of school called p-tech. within six years, students can graduate with a high school diploma, a college degree, and a pathway to a competitive job. you know what's going up today? my poster. today, there are more than a hundred thousand p-tech students around the world. it's a game changer. high protein.

low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good! high protein. low sugar. mmmm, birthday cake! pure protein. the best combination for every fitness routine. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

it nice?ce. this is the most-awarded minivan three years in a row. the van just talked. sales guy, give 'em the employee price, then gimme your foot. hands-free sliding doors, stow 'n go seats, man, y'all getting a hook up and y'all don't even work here. pacificaaaaa! >> new hopes for a trade deal giving an optimistic outlook and amid hopes, a warning from the founder of bridgewater associates over a potential new war looming over u.s. and china. taylor swift seeing red as her

feud with top executives escalate why the two sides will likely never ever get back together as "worldwide exchange" continues ♪ >> welcome back. thanks for being with us i'm in for brian sullivan this friday november 15 let's get a check on the headlines with frances rivera live with the latest good morning and happy friday to you. >> we take a turn to start the morning off with the story investigators say the 16-year-old student opened fire in santaclarita who opened fire

and killed three students and others injured before he turned the gun on himself >> the waters rising in venice st. mark's square is covered in knee-deep water. prompting the italian government to call for a state of emergency. >> harry styles to host snl. stylers, are fans waiting. stand by tickets don't even guarantee entry. it is not even first come, first serve. you get there and it is a lottery. these people are waiting out there in the major cold dip in the temperatures it is insane

>> francis, you and i as nbc universal employees don't even get access that tells you how much demand there is thank you for the update here is how stock futures are looking. the dow is on pace for the fourth straight positive week since february pointing to a 77 point rise of the dow. looking at the bond market the 10-year benchmark currently 1.84%. the two-year note yield up 1.61%. the asian markets looking well we have seen nice movement there as well. the nikkei up .70% in hong kong, officials have confirmed the economy has plunged into the first recession in a decade amid the violent

protest. the shanghai protest down on that let's look at early trade in europe the general green swap there the german dax up as well. the cac and france up a half percent and mib is up as well. former executives at underarmor reportedly say they took steps to overup slowing demand in 2016 execs say steps took borrowing business from other quarters and leaning on businesses for orders coming under investigation of the practices as well. apple has hired one of president trump's closest allies in washington, d.c. as a lobbyist the tech giant is tapping

jeffery miller as vice chairman of the inaugural committee on his behalf they are expected to focus on trade issues but did not specify the nature of that focus bridgewater associate is warning of a new war between the u.s. and china speaking in new york on relations between the countries. he offered this outlook. >> there is a trade war, there is a technology war. there is a geopolitical war. and there could be capital wars. that is the nature of the environment. how that is approached is going to determine what our futures are like adding that the president isn't ready to sign on the dotted line

just yet joining me now to discuss is managing director of citigroup always a pleasure to have you here with us take us through, you've heard so much news. taking us to record highs, is this a situation where the path is on the upside as opposed to down. >> you've got fundamentals and positioning that look at the world with the slow down and trade war. the uk and brexit and they are thinking, okay i don't need to be vested right here that is pushing things ultimately higher. >> how does that negativity move markets to the upside? >> two things. first, you've got a lot of

systematic momentum funds. secondly, climbing that wall of worry. we are in that environment where the net negative use has been slowly priced out climbing that wall of worries pushes it higher >> investors are setting up for the year end they are probably thinking about last year, does everybody get shocked. is this a scenario where this is possibly going to play out in the time >> it means it probably will not happen when you look at the details, you can see retail positions have come down actually in terms

of hedging, rather than hedging the down side, we are looking for investors to health the upside we are looking at the cool wing of the markets >> if you say there is a lot more hedging to the upside, that implies people assuring stocks on the stock market. it seems that is what causes the slow grind higher as people sell more upside insurance, they have more stock is that one of the positioning aspects you are watching this position against maybe ensuring against the upside >> typically when markets move higher, volatility go down when it goes up, that indicate is people are bidding up the upside tale. the repositioning has come down. retail aren't participating as much as they were say this time

last year. >> is this the market where you could buy or are you waiting for some kind of pull back >> that is going to be critical in that regard at a moment, you've got positive decision we have no dates, no details we don't even have a location that has been set. as we recall the time, we had that positive enthusiasm against u.s. stocks and asian stocks that show a different picture. i'm a little worried that we've got the similar set up right now. >> one last thing, last year, we were concerned about the fed this time, we've get the fed tightening up around the easing cycle. how much will this be the upside market >> the fed have told you we are in neutral the fed have driven real rates

down from 100 basis points from last year. if you recall, 100 basis points was enough to derail the rally my concern is that we don't even need 100 basis points, we need closer than 50 what to watch for is what the fed do and what they say to contain the real rates. >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> a number of high-profile hedge fund managers making some big moves in the latest round of regulatory filings telling us where the money is going and where it is going. >> alphabet increasing ownership. at the end of the quarter, stakes of alphabet, amazon and

facebook each worth roughly a billion dollars. third point selling out of its stake in netflix and pairing back slightly their stake in apple. sold his stake in lyft and third point dissolved a position in pintrest they did take a new stake in smiledirect and tiger global disclosed new stakes in beyond meat, cloud can flare and data dog. and icahn confirms $1.2 billion stake in hp. >> let's talk a little now and tell us what you can about warren buffett and rh, the

company formerly known as restoration hardware does this signify something maybe about the american consumer >> it is unclear who made the bet within berkshire hathaway. it is a smaller position worth about $200 million at the end of the quarter you can see that stock popped on the disclosure up about 6.8%. part of the reason why you often times see buffett hold these name brand companies pretty immune from the ups and downs of the economic cycle. rh pretty tied to the high-end housing market at least they believe it can withstand some of the ups and downs of end of cycle behavior >> warren buffett, berkshire

hathaway thank you very much. >> a wild end to the browns/steelers game as an all outbrawl erupts. speaking of football, could amazon ceo jeff bezos be looking to add a team to his portfolio more of what we'll be talking about coming up on the show. sundown vitamins are all non-gmo, made with naturally sourced colors and flavors and are gluten & dairy free. they're all clean. all the time. even if sometimes we're not. sundown vitamins. all clean. all the time.

whether your beauty routine is 3or 57,... make nature's bounty hair skin and nails step one. it's the number one brand uniquely formulated for silky hair, glowing skin and healthy nails. nature's bounty, because you're better off healthy.

>> that's a live shot of new york city. a shot from the top of rockefeller center pretty picture there welcome back cnbc holding a special event in california last night celebrating our disruptor 50 list rahel, this was a big deal some stars coming out to

celebrate. >> champion megan rapinoe was there. touched on a variety of topics including the u.s. women's ongoing fight for equal pay. >> we've given people a vehicle or a starter to talk about this. hopefully we'll either reach a settlement or kick ass in court and that will be a precedent in businesses and looking forward for other women to look to to hopefully spur on their fight. and i think from a business perspective. investing in women is a good business decision. >> earlier this month,australi followed norway and new zealand with equal pay

rapinoe said she had hoped the u.s. would have been the first to do it but i guess you can't have it all. >> she is kind of a spokes western for the movement it is a disruptive type of concept. >> it shouldn't be >> it shouldn't be but it is. in certain parts of the uk, it was equal pay day because women would literally have to keep working to make what men would make in the same amount of time. top of mind especially on wall street >> nice to see her celebrity to add some heft to that. also trending this morning, speaking of another powerful woman. the feud between taylor twist and top music executives

the singer is claiming the two are exercising tyrant control of her music. she was signed at 15 years old the label bought rights to about 10 years worth of her catalog and she argues that the execs are blocking her from performing her old hits at the music awards where she'll be recognized as artist of the decade she say she can only use her music if she does not rerecord her older songs and stops talking about the two. >> this is a long-running battle broadly speaking about leverage and no leverage.

the legal environment about rights and what you are entitled to and what you own and what it will take to resolve this. >> we'll see the fight rages on >> so this is really interesting. jeff bezos might be eyeing some of the most exclusive clubs, nfl team owners. he has reported interest in buying the seattle seahawks. the team valued at $300 million. no word if the team is for sale. he hasn't publicly expressed interest this was reported by the washington post which of course bezos owns >> he's also the richest man or kind of jockeys to be the richest man in the world at any given time paul allen as an owner, when he

was an owner, really transformed that franchise and made it this thing that the entire state of washington could be proud of they initiated the 12th man celebration. you can tell there is a sentiment al tie that many have to the microsoft's cofounder and that is a big deal >> the cleveland browns took on the steelers last night. you are thinking this is not really even a game the browns would beat the afc rivals 21-7. all anyone is talking about is the final seconds of the game, steelers quarterback gets tackled. the two go at each other's face masks. basically garrett rips the quarterback's helmet off and hits him in the head

this leads to an all out brawl which led to several players being ejected. the game is pretty much over and then this happens. it was probably not the most shining of moments >> not at all but i love what our producer said. you go to a football game and a hockey game breaks out >> i know a lot of us are sleepy this morning after that. on deck for the show thank you, rahel >> execs in major cities are cracking down on several food delivery startups. >> and the impeachment proceedings continue today pae l preview and look at th imct it could or could not have on your money after the break.

>> welcome back. the headlines you need in 60 seconds. amazon is disputing the government's decision. they have filed a notice in the u.s. court suggesting plans to protest that move. officials in new york city are considering cracking down on the food delivery business city council is looking at commission rates companies charge restaurants per transaction. and barclays announced it is double upgrading grubhub the company's board suggestions

on how to improve that business. the anti-trust probe may be expanding. sources tell cnbc by the attorney's general that represent 48 states, puerto rico and washington, d.c. will go beyond the company's advertising business and get into the search and an drdroid as well. >> more on the impeachment proceedings. >> democrats are characterizing the hearings as a success for the truth. nancy pelosi describes it as a moral obligation >> as custodians of the constitution, we must be defenders of our democracy because our democracy depends on

that and not a monarchy. >> the former u.s. ambassador to the ukraine will appear. she was removed from her post this spring and she is the one president trump referred to as bad news in the phone call with the ukrainian president and the president said she is going to go through some things she was asked, did you feel threatened by that she answered yes david holmes in a hearing today that will be private he is the staffer who overheard president trump ask the eu ambassador about the negotiations in that phone call. saying there is nothing new and they are repeating the calls for the whistleblower to come to congress >> what will be the main focus of the lawmakers

what are they going to be looking at specifically? >> they are zeroing in on accusation of bribery. democrats moving away from the argument that perhaps there was a quid pro quo military aid and settling on the term of bribery. they believe that one is more explainable to the public. nancy pelosi feels the evidence laid out just so far bo would corroborate that >> that word bribery being tossed around a lot. we appreciate that update. for more on whether these hearings could possess risks to your investments, i'm joined by jim from alpha partners. your business is advising clients of political risks should we be worried about the

i proceedings. >> this is kind of like an aircraft carrier we want to see the deal with china come in and see it parked on the deck. impeachment is kind of like a thunderstorm far on the horizon. she just told us everything that is going to happen today we know exactly what the house is going to do there is no surprises here the big flus is china and getting that done by the end of the year and what the smart money is worried about is what happens in the senate in february will they roast joe biden for a month before the iowa caucuses will they make six senators sit in the impeachment trial when they should be campaigning for super tuesday. the next step is really where the smart people of washington are focused. no one in new york is going to tune in.

they've had press conferences for weeks now. no surprise whatsoever >> if there is no surprise on that front, markets are still moving on those headlines. we had a guest say those movements have gotten a little more subdued what could be the major catalyst that could be that kind of either down side or upsidemove that gets things breaking out to one side or the other. >> at the end of the year in washington, we've got to get the appropriations bills done. it looks like we are in reach of doing that we'll avoid a shut down i'm not really sure the market is moving on impeachment anymore

the market is moving on a lot of data unless you are looking on the impact of the elections next year impeachment won't be resolved until we address it at the ballot box would impeachment help or hurt the candidacy of elizabeth warren will biden make it through it is really all about the election next year and not at all about the short term in d.c. >> how important is the wealth tax debate towards markets >> i think it is really really important. it signature follows a direction of policy on the whole that will be vastly more radical than we've seen before. the markets worry about wealth tax and about a lot of economic

policies and whether or not there will be any checks and balances when you talk about a wealth tax, you are sending a signal that that is the tip of the iceberg. you'll still be very aggressive across the board there >> thank you for your thoughts that does it for "worldwide exchange" this morning "squawk box" picks up coverage on this friday good morning, hong kong's week of rage boiling over as there is pressure to restore order. unmistakable bias why amazon says it is challenging a pentagon contract that could by worth up to $10 billion with microsoft. >> and taylor swift's food with the masters who own the rights she is looking to the carlise group for help "squawk box" begins right now

good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the marketsite on times square. you will see some green arrows this morning yesterday, markets ended near a record high. dow and nasdaq gave up only a couple of points each. dow looks like it will open up about 61 points. part of this is on hopes of optimism of a u.s./china trade deal 10-year yielding 1.826 >> the optimis