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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 25, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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extent of that move. we're not set up to absorb much of a jolt. volatility levels very low but i think you have to give credit to the bulls in this instance. >> nasdaq closing more than 1% higher the other two just shy of a percent higher we're out of time. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," lyft, tesla and uber all on the move the desk breaks down the headlines driving these names. netflix slugging off a big downgrade. it's the best performing faang stock of the month check out the mystery chart. it's hitting its highest level we start off with a new set of records on wall street while the s&p, dow and nasdaq all clocked in with new all-time highs, it's the small cap
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russell 2000 index that got our attention this evening the index hitting its own fresh 52-week high are the small caps saying big things about the health of this record rally guy. >> tim has talked about this and good for dan nathan. why are you shaking your head? why? it's monday. we're 30 seconds in. >> you're already a downer. >> dan mentioned it on the call. everybody said dan is a downer he's not a downer, he pointed out the russell. 161.5. that was the high back in may. these are pretty interesting levels the real high is at 173 that we traded back in august 2018 but the small caps are absolutely telling a story they have lagged the broader market for a while they seem to be catching up. the question is do we ratchet through this 161 level with the s&p trading sideways for a while and retest that 173 high it certainly feels as though that's the next move so yes. >> are you optimistic? >> i bring it up because it's
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obvious. you look at this breakout here we've been looking at this index since the start of february. between 145 and 160, routinely rejected that. to break out this time of year where we're seeing new highs on the s&p and nasdaq, i think it's an obvious choice to say, all right, let's play this one it's 7% from the all-time highs made in january of 2018. i want to make one more point, the price of options we're talking about the other way in the spy they're really cheap if you want to make near the money financial bets, you can play for the breakout. >> which makes sense to me that's when you want to jump in with low volatilities. you get the push down, you look for stocks with quality names. when you go up and look at the volatility index, down through 12 on the vix, pretty amazing. so where are we seeing some of the action we're seeing a lot of paper being traded all over the place. we're talking about 21 million per day in the month of november now, we've slowed down the last
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three days or so and maybe we'll slow down as we get into this holiday week and obviously friday will be a half day. but the volumes so far in november have been extraordinary. about a million more per day than the year-to-date average. so volumes are there i'll tell you what, it's financials we talk about this particular sector of the marketplace when we say the russell but look at the financials look at big tech even today some of those names were absolutely exploding to the upside, mel. so this is something where we're seeing a nice broad participation rather than saying, hey, there's four names out there called the faang. >> the cyclical semis were on fire. >> they have arguably led us through so we talked a lot here about the russell, down 16% relative to the s&p. so you've got room to run on this thing as pete talks about the breadth here, if you are gauging value versus growth, they're each up 25% year to date you've had it across all sectors
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of the market. today you saw the bond market rise, you saw credit spreads tighten, and it tells you along with the vix going below 12 is there's this risk aggression going on out there whether that's justified or not, you certainly have a dynamic where we've wanted to see this breadth. financials biotech we'll talk about later in the show. plenty of places, emerging markets might have outperformed everything today because of what we saw in asia overnight >> just one point. i think he talks about breadth the last time we saw this level of complacency was really late 2017 after the tax cuts and into january 2018 no one could find a single reason to sell a stock until they did it feels like that sort of situation. it also feels like whatever you thought were the impediments to global growth, they have been pushed out the big one obviously being the trade war. so you do have the setup so why can't you have the s&p just keep trickling a little higher and have things like the russell play catchup and get back to the
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prior highs? >> at the risk of agreeing with danny downer, when was the last time you saw this steep of a move essentially in small caps and how much room is there to run and what do you look at the rest of the market so ultimately if we have this seasonal push, reminding that we have a fed that's probably on hold you have macro data around the world that hasn't done a lot over the last couple of months and stabilized maybe this is what you need. >> hey, pete, where are you from >> minnesota the midwest. >> now you're shaking your head. >> we all know that. >> i take nothing for granted. >> you mentioned how many times when the stock was trading 225 did we mention united health and said united health, unh, at a 13 multiple makes zero sense. it's going to trade back to the all-time highs we saw in december guess what happened today? traded back to the all-time
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highs we saw in december now it's trading at a more reasonable multiple, probably closer to 18 so there's a name if you want to take profits now, it wouldn't we the worst idea in the world. that stock has probably had its run. to tim's point, how much can the russell go probably 7.5%. >> health care it's been day after day after day, whether it's merck, pfizer, all these various names moving to the upside i'm no longer in united health i just felt like it was getting a little too stretched cigna is really inexpensive. they're well managed they also have a great p.e. multiple you look on that side of the industry, it's really interesting right now, mel, how well those names are doing yet they don't get talked about very often until tonight at 5:00. >> you mentioned taking profits at united health but 7.5% upside on the russell. >> tim asked the question, how much more is left. i pay attention. >> right
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does that imply there's not much more of a move to the upside on the s&p 500? >> i thought the s&p was there a number of times and now we're continuing to grind higher i think the beta is more so in the russell than the s&p. >> and the catch-up trades. >> oh! >> hold on >> what? >> hold on there's not been a single skeptical voice here in this whole conversation listen, this is how things go when you have a market s&p up 25% on the year, nice round number on the dow. listen, you just said something. well, economic data around the world. people are convinced that it's bottoming? i don't know why people are convinced that the fed is on hold did you see the 10-year treasury yield going lower today? which is fine. >> i'm agreeing with you. >> but what i'm saying with you, when you can't find a single reason to sell anything, that's problematic here everyone is just convinced that everything is all set for all
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systems go in 2020 i think the higher we go right now, the lower we go in q1, 2020. >> we talk about the russell all the time we're leading off with it. people are selling out of certain things but i think they're going toward the russell. certain names outside of that industry as well where you're looking at specifics you know what, like for me with united health, it finally sprints to the upside. you know what, i'm going to a different name where i've got similar aspects of what i'm looking at but it's trading at a lower multiple those are what people should be doing right now, moving around like they have the rotation effect so you can move to the upside. >> guess who else is buying today. companies. companies are buying each other. i don't know why it's any different now. you can look at any one of these big deals we've seen the last week you can argue they're very much industry specific, very much company specific we've had cheap rates for a long time but maybe this is one last gasp
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while the getting is good and the regulatory environment is very benign. rates tick down lower. this is a great place for m & a. >> we've never been in a boom cycle where rates are this low schwab and ameritrade will take out hundreds of millions of dollars in costs during the lifetime and that also means they're going fire people. >> like 10,000 probably. >> so it is different this time as far as an m & a cycle at the top of a boom or near a top. usually it doesn't happen at the bottoms, it happens at the top one investor's trash may be another's treasure carter worth is over at the plasma to do some dumptster diving what are you looking at? >> things that are going basically straight down versus the equity market in general going straight up. five names that have been basically so bad they're good but starting to bottom
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you know what these people do, whether it's mac and cheese or ketchup and you know its chart, straight down and to the right but just starting, and i'll zoom in, just starting to break above the downtrend line let's go to the next same picture it's u.s. steel. you know what they do. they're a steel company. same thing just breaking above the downtrending this is dumpster diving. they have been going down for two years but each has just started to perk above the downtrend line two more, freeport same circumstance. zoom in here and you can see it ever so slightly above the downtrend and then finally ge, which is quite a bit more above its downtrend. so consider those five names obviously there are a lot more in the report. and consider the following names you know, decent market cap, u.s. steel being smaller,
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but in total $210 billion. this is the 1-2 setup. what we know is look at the two-year performance equity markets are at all-time highs and down 61, 42, 70, down, down, down that's the setup now the leg up is this flip it around look at what they have done the past three months. again, the market has done this, they're all outperforming. you have the 1-2 setup of great weakness followed by recent nacent strength. here is a basket of that group i think there are several ways you can do this. you can call this a double bottom you can get rid of that and call this the perspective of a head and shoulders. put the same line in and just ever so slightly let's zoom in as a group that is moving above the downtrend. dumpster diving between now and year end will be the place to be. >> carter, come on over.
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>> will also went to the harvard like you did that harvard/yale game historic in nature. not because of the halftime game the game itself. i know you watched, didn't you, melissa? >> every second. i didn't watch a single second. >> ha ha >> anyway, so for these breakouts to occur, is the backdrop -- does the backdrop have to be a rising stock market >> not necessarily there's two things that happen when you have a fairly extended general equity market. money gets a little bit annoyed or desperate and says let me find something that hasn't come to life. let's play the laggard that typically happens as you're reaching the mature stages of a big run in the market. laggards get played. now, one could say, okay, this is the whole value does u.s. steel versus microsoft the next 36 months -- microsoft will kill u.s. steel will caterpillar beat google not a chance
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will any of those duds beat great growth stocks? no but can you make more money now in the next three, five, six, eight weeks. these stocks are killing the market, right? so the setup of great weakness followed by emerging strength. typically that turn, that momentum can be played. >> carter, of the five names you picked, two are recovery stories. >> they're all idiosyncratic >> i think they can be traded as a group and essentially with some stabilizing of the commodity prices in a global cyclic cyclicality. >> it's not really happening in copper look at the price of copper. and i picked those because they're big names people know. the list is quite long a lot of them are small cap. that's the nature of dumpster diving you're finding fairly small
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names. >> carter, what do you think, there's another group in the dumpster, uuber, lyft, slack could you see any seasonal effect in the last month of the year where a lot of people might have vested interests in seeing those higher. >> all of those are basically super duds pinterest, beyond meat -- >> duds? >> as opposed to these long-term duds which is at least showing some life. chart is a coward. you go first and i'll be right behind you. >> lyft is up 30%. >> they look like they're trying to bottom. >> that's almost too nacent. i want it to show that basing bottoming action that would suggest it's got a little more traction. >> but just to quickly tie it back to the original conversation we were having at the top of the show with the iwm, you mentioned smaller cap stocks that's what's made up the list primarily. is that what we're seeing in the
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russell overall? >> what's so curious about the move today in small caps, which is what happens when speculative action is going on, growth outperformed value that's the real tell today the russell 2000 has a big weighting in banks, which is value. the iwo performed the iwm. and that's very interesting because it wasn't, quote, value that outperformed growth today in small cap. >> carter, thank you >> he did not mention, carter, and i'm not bringing him back, but you have a major double bottom in freeport and we've talked about that. bank of america merrill lynch is upgraded percentagewise that's a 20% move i think you're going to see it u.s. steel, which has been awful since march when president trump announced the tariffs, went from 45 to 10 in a straight line. that's another stock that i think can bounce he mentioned nacent twice in an eight-minute span. i think that's a penalty. >> no, i think that's a wonderful word that should be
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used more. >> i know what it means. >> he went overweight on it. >> coming up -- i think it's fine i'm the final arbiter. palo alto networks and pvh reporting after the bell. later, buckle up because we have a car industry triple play. the three big stories in the driver's seat today. we're live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" after this have you ever worked with dr. francis? oh yeah, he's ok. just ok? guess who just got reinstated! well, not officially.
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welcome back check out pvh and palo alto networks both moving in the after hours session. we start with josh lipton in san francisco on palo alto josh. >> so the ceo is on the call and saying that his company is now building products with a.i. and ml so recognizing that this is an evolving technology customers see the benefits and are betting on the company how is the company progressing against its long-term goals? aurora is saying they're doing better on some metrics, guidance when it comes to billings. they put out this 800 million plus bogey so they actually increased next gen security billings by 10 million just going back and forth with this analyst who covers the name
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and the sector who knows that they did fall short on product so legacy on prem, firewall, hardware and software. the competition notably from the cloud security players have been showing more upside he says. for eps margins and cash floew,s aurora says we're looking to invest and stick with the company's financial targets. analysts are also asking about tariffs and the impact there the cfo saying they do source some components from china we did increase pricing on firewalls to offset tariff impact back to you. >> thank you, josh guidance as much as 19 cents short of consensus estimates. >> that's the problem. the first quarter was fine, beat by a couple cents revenue beat but second quarter confide ans, $1.12 and the street was at $1.30. you have a major double top at 2
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250 back in april. what does it mean? it means you don't buy it, you let this settle. valuation is too high. i think it retests the $200 level. >> valuation is pretty high. all of a sudden you look at the through. all the competition out there, we talk about this every single night. whether it's in streaming or whatever, competition is there the competition in this particular space, cybersecurity, is as an incredible level. so it's something they have to deal with. when they give that kind of guidance, that's the reaction they should get. but if this goes down much further, i think it will be a great opportunity. >> to what >> down to maybe the 220 level if it gets there, that's the area to buy. >> pvh is also on the move frank holland is back at headquarters with the details. >> shares of pvh moving up and much lower after reporting a
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beat on revenues and strong beat on eps they raised the top and bottom range of its full-year guidance after lowering it last quarter the tommy hilfiger brand saw 10% growth but the gains are coming from mainly outside the u.s. the commentary from the ceo is where the stock took a hit he said the holiday season will be competitive and highly promotional. he expects volatility will continue to be a headwind. on "mad money" he told jim cramer how his business is being impacted by the uncertain climate surrounding tariffs. >> you know, the worst part is the uncertainty. i'm sitting here on december 1st, thereabouts, and i don't know what my costs are on to be in january. >> that's crazy. >> is it a 15% tariff, 25% tariff or 0% tariff? >> david schwartz said it's clear we're looking at a very promotional market in north
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america, but they are equipped to handle it they are so international. calvin and tommy have so much revenue outside of north america. dana telsey says when you look at the complexions of the business, the outperformance in europe for tommy hill figurer and solid growth of calvin in europe is what helps you grow. >> thank you, frank holland. it almost sounds like manny was being conservative. >> he was also conservative on their fiscal q3 going into that holiday season but they have had two quarters in a row they have ratcheted down expectations and told you it's a very difficult environment. north america was going to be somewhat sideways. that's really what we've seen. they have new clothing lines at calvin klein but this is one of those brands that i think has gotten somewhat commoditized and
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ubiquitous. >> the stock went from 170 to 70 to 100 so you've had a pretty significant move but valuation is somewhat a compelling story the guidance wasn't awful. i don't know who's buying calvin klein. if you recall "back to the future," do you remember that movie? >> she thought his name was calvin because of his briefs. >> and on friday we had a guest on talking about where he buys his undergarments. i'd be more inclined to buy it than sell it. for a full rap, head to our website on cnbc.com. here's what else is coming up on "fast. >> it may not look like your regular pickup but tesla has interest already but are the preorders as good as they might seen. later, biotech stocks hitting their highest level in more than a year we look for opportunities in the red hot seorct
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welcome back to "fast money. " car talk front and center in the market today liftoff for lyft is on an analyst upgrade and tesla rising on cyber truck hype. we begin there because as phil lebeau is about to show you, it may not be as it seems phil, what do you mean >> well, you've got 200,000 reservations that's how many were received through yesterday according to elon musk. this brings up the question, how many of these reservations at $100 a pop will actually turn into orders and how does it compare to previous models
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well, we've got a little data there. remember, it's a $100 deposit for the cybertruck it was a $1,000 for the model 3 back in 2016 tesla said they got up to 455,000 reservations there as for the model y, it's a $2,500 deposit they never told us how many preorders they have for the model y. over the weekend elon musk said the cybertruck orders so far, 42% of people putting down a deposit said we want the $49,000 dual motor version 41% want the tri-version and 17% wanting the single motor remember, these vehicles are scheduled to be delivered at the end of 2021. melissa, we can't stress this enough just because there are reservations there, there's no way of knowing at least we haven't been able to figure out at this point and analysts haven't figured out how many of these preorders actually turn into full orders and
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customers buying a particular vehicle. i've talked to people who put in an order for the model 3 and ended up buying it i talked to others who said i put it in and decided i wasn't going to wait around so got my $1,000 back. it's a little hard to figure out how many of these 200,000s will turn into paying customers. >> there's a lot we don't know about these numbers, phil. when he tweeted, it's interesting that elon musk chose the word "orders" as opposed to deposits. >> yeah. some people are saying is this a violation of the terms of the s.e.c. agreement look, now you're getting into a real fine area here and i'm sure the s.e.c. maybe heard from some people who said there he is, he's violating the terms again i didn't read it that way, melissa. i thought, okay, he didn't write preorders, he wrote orders that's how i looked at it. but some people are probably listening to me saying, oh, you're naive
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elon with push the envelope as much as he wants i didn't take it that way. >> he was so active on twitter, updating, 187, 200k. he also tweeted cybertruck is the last product unveiled for a while but there will be mostly unexpected technology announcements next year, which also seems like he's pushing the envelope. >> right but he has said this in the past, that there will be technology announcements look, i expect they'll probably have another battery analyst day similar to what they had last year remember that was the one -- it didn't go over too well with the analysts they felt like they asked more questions than received answers. especially what's going to happen with auto pilot and full self-driving mode. i suspect those are the things we'll likely hear from tesla and elon musk over the next six months or nine months. >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau in chicago for us. so how do you take this news there are a lot of holes in
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these numbers. >> you take it the way the stock traded today effectively closed unchanged on the day. i can't believe mr. musk is all that happy about given what he said over the weekend with all these orders i'm sure in his mind, that brilliant mind that it is, thought the stock would recoup all the losses we saw last week and gain some. it didn't. i'm in the tim seymour camp. i understand the cash flow story. >> but you would be short the stock? >> given a choice between would you rather long or short, i would rather be short, yes. >> they're making moonshot cars by kickstarter have at it i just don't get a $100 deposit. it seems like a ridiculous thing. last week i put down a $500 deposit on the ford mach e that will be delivered in late 2020 i'll be interested to see their execution and how that comes out. i suspect that thing comes out on time. this car is never going to be made when you're talking about the difference between orders and this and that, whatever, i don't
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get it if you want to build cars by kickstarter, have at it. i don't think you do it with a company that has a $60 billion market cap. >> are you going to join the bear on tesla? >> new york city io, i'm not, w late 2021 for the delivery implied volatilities have gotten tamped down, extremely down. on the put side with the shorts still existing out there, you'll look at nice premiums. on the calm side on the other hand you have some room to put on some spreads for the squeeze to the upside. >> are you done it >> i was looking at it today. >> what would the catalyst be in your view? >> a continuation of the fact that all this news and not all of it has been great news. in fact very little of it has been yet look at where the stock is you always say this all the time, guy. hey, you know what, the reaction of this thing is what really
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matters. >> but hasn't the news been great? >> has it been great >> you followed tesla over the last couple years. the news over the last three or four months and most notably, it's all you want to hear. the other stuff doesn't make sense. they had 273,000 model 3 orders in the first weekend as well that was awesome if you think that equates to demand as someone who's not bullish, has been bullish but therefore -- >> but the interpretations that we got for the most part weren't all that positive. >> when i say earnings, we're talking about the actual numbers themself that tesla has. those numbers are still very suspect and very interesting to look at. not everybody thinks its bullish. >> let's shift gears, so to speak. uber falling after london has concerns over passenger safety
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lyft catching a bit after being upgraded to a buy. it's projected it will break even in 2021 is lyft the better ride-sharing play here? specifically in the lyft upgrade what was interesting is that the analyst had mentioned uber being caught up in these international battles, like london. >> i think lyft has chosen a format to play on a local level that's actually worked they're certainly not expanding their business line. it's the pure play if you look at how the stocks performed, this is a dumpster dive that didn't just start to turn, it started to turn two months ago and is up 35% in about 35 sessions. so at some point i think this was very overdone, very much short selling. it's hard to get excited about profitability even though they have given you some sense late 2020 who knows. >> it's a super dud, though, according to carter. >> here's the thing, right -- >> get nacent in there. >> no! >> when you don't have a profit
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story to talk about now, you've got to hear consistency from the management i think lyft's management has been consistent about when that's going to happen the stock bottomed out at $37 about a month and a half ago, it's trading at $49. it ipo'ed at 72 and traded as high as 88 i think when you see uber dealing with some of these issues globally, i think it probably makes some investors who love the ride-share gig economy, all that sort of stuff, let's stick right to home. how they dealt with the california regulation issue, i think they were transparent about that sort of thing it's an easier story to handle. >> at what point do you think dara has a problem you've been critical of him after the axios exchange, after the deal book, you have this now. >> i think this is a company where the board, i know there's been some issues they're all in behind dara right now. this is a complicated story. it's one they can't even put their finger on when they say
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they'll be profitable. i just think lyft is a much, much easier story to invest in coming up, a big deal in the biotech space sending the group to a new 52-week high. has the sector made a full recovery we'll hear from the traders. later, shopping for a deal the one stock options adtrers are eyeing into earnings we'll bring you that name when "fast money" returns they're all clean. all the time. even if sometimes we're not. sundown vitamins. all clean. all the time. most people think of verizon as a reliable phone company. (woman) but to businesses, we're a reliable partner. we keep companies ready for what's next. (man) we weave security into their business.
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welcome back to "fast. cholesterol drug maker, the medicines company topping the tape today this after novartis offered to buy it that deal giving a big boost to the biotech sector the ibb hits a new 52-week high. the biotech index up 10% over the past month is this just a beginning for an even bigger breakout for the space? >> it's been a huge move i don't know if it's the beginning but there's still room to the upside. amgen, all-time high we talked about this stock for years. valuation is compelling. makes sense absolutely you've seen what happens with
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celgene with that acquisition by bristol meyers i think there's a lot of room in the space. in a low interest rate environment where cash is free, people are going to reach. that's what happened with the medicines company and i think that will happen with some other names. >> that seemed pretty expensive. >> but novartis has done this twice though so it's amazing how much they are willing to go out on a limb. i agree with guy there are a lot of names where you look and say, wow. biogen trades at 10 times earnings although this move has been move on the alzheimer's potential so we've had a huge move in the stock but it still trades at that valuation so i think there's a lot of opportunities out there, whether it's amgen, regeneron, all these types of names i don't know how many more will get bought up but i think there's an appetite by smaller acquisitions by some of the big pharma names. >> this deal is interesting because they're already in cardiovascular and have a number of other product launches.
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the valuation wasn't great this is everything that bummed people out about the biotech sector two years ago everybody said they have to do something, it's a very aggressive environment, put that balance sheet to work. they're damned if they do and damned if they don't the market has been reaching for laggards fantastic balance sheets, not just decent, but fantastic and companies that we've maybe overestimated how limited the pipeline is. >> the criticism is that you have enough cash to do something with but you also have enough cash to do some ill-fated deal. >> i'll mention this you're talking about the ibb and the breakout mel, your question is it just getting started. look at the xlv, the balance sheets of big pharma that just broke out at $96 or something like that. you want to play a breakout, you want to play a laggard, it's only up 15% on the year. that's a space i would go into, into year end. listen, when those guys have
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made acquisitions, actually stocks have gone up. up next, discounting retailer dollar three out in earnings tomorrow morning. we dive into what the options market is saying ahead of those results. we're just hours away from alibaba's hong konglisting tha will be the biggest tofhe year. will shares live up to the hype? "fast money" is back after this. i knew about the tremors.
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welcome back to "fast money. " dollar tree seeing a big bounce today and investors are expecting a bigger rally tomorrow what's the setup going into earnings. >> taking a look at dollar tree, we can see that the way the market is shaping up, people are expecting a pretty significant move to the upside that's borne itself out in both the stock and the options. take a look here at the implied move and you can see the friday straddle is implying a 6% move in either direction between now and then that's on the rich side. taking it a step further, what you can see is that calls outweigh puts 2 times to 1 same story despite the fact that option values have been pretty low leading up to today, we've seen real robust volume in terms of
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the calls being purchased today, which takes me to the implied move two things i want to point out here one is that you can see that implied volatility is a bit rich right now. the second thing i want you to read into is there's some cyclicality to option prices leading up to earnings move every quarter, option prices get expensive and then sell off. we see that repeated time and time again the last thing i want you to focus on is the stock itself i want you to have an understanding of how the stock is trading leading up to tomorrow the stock had a small gap, hard to depict right here action and we have yet to fill in that channel. we bounced off it a couple of times. we've had a short-term downtrend. and today on real volume in the option and the stock we have started to make that move upwardly and aggressively to the upside net-net looking at the stock and the options, guys are pretty optimistic going into tomorrow
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morning. >> thanks for that who's into dollar tree >> one of the issues has been the gross margin there's been a headwind. i think you're starting to see that change going into next year so if you look at what they announced in fiscal q, it was a case where they guided things are getting a little bit better. i think you can own the stock. >> don't forget, no show this friday. >> what are you going to do? >> wednesday is the hump day and gobble gobble. >> friday off. >> up next, stranger things happening to netflix the stock climbing today despite a big downgrade. we'll dive into the action check out the cramer cam jim is talking to the ceo of bristol-myers squibb that full interview coming up top of the hour. we are live at the ndaasq in times square much more "fast money" still ahead. best...finding out what's sellig to managing your fleet...
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welcome back to "fast money. netflix shrugging off. i spoke to the analyst behind this call and he told me the math just doesn't add up. >> netflix has been losing around $2 per subscriber a month so it's charging around $10 on a global basis for that streaming
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service. it's spending about $12 on that same subscriber. >> despite the move to a sell, netflix ended the day in the green. get this, it's now the best performing faang stock this month, up 9% so will netflix stream higher from here? there's one line in this note saying where we might be wrong people don't care. it looked like people didn't care. >> that's been the story for netflix for a long time, people didn't care. i know we said it will trade down to 250 and spot on that's what happened. how much more room i think there is room. 325ish is a 50% retracement of the entire move we've seen from top to bottom. but i do think there's room to the upside on netflix. >> in a runaway bull market there's plenty of room for these guys to have a catch-up trade up 24% in 40 sessions if you look at faang across the board. amazon, you probably get back to 2000 but the fundamental story with netflix is one that's had
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challenges. >> it's always been challenged i understand what you're saying but i think when you talk about u.s., the challenges are already there. i think international is where they're going grow they talk about the india markets, tim you know far more about this than i do. but the fact that internet is getting better, better, better, bigg bigger, bigger, faster out there, they claim it's the next 1 hundred million subscribers coming out of there. >> so what will it cost them to get to the 100 million subscribers? they lose $2 per subscriber. $3 to $4 billion you want to go to india and make that content just for india? have at it that's going to cost a lot when you think about north america where we know -- >> why do you suppose the stock didn't get hit after this observation? >> when you can bring have at it -- >> if that's the story that you to find the next 100 million usersin some third world country, okay. >> we don't use the term
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anymore. developing market. developing economy. >> you guys of just so like -- >> okay, boomer. >> that doesn't work. >> it doesn't even work. >> it does >> laugh track perfect timing. >> you could try that again later on, not right there. from e-video to e-commerce, alibaba is just hours away from listing on the hong kong stock exchange in what will be the largest public share sale in the year deirdre bosa has all the details. >> it's also a home coming for alibaba. the hong kong market opens at 9:30 a.m. local time, 8:30 eastern tonight. don't expect all the bells and whistles of a traditional ipo. chinese investors know alibaba it's e-commerce and digital media is everywhere across the country. secondly, they have been keeping a low profile during the listing process as hong kong continues to be rocked by pro-democracy protests still, demand has been strong and the company closed the books
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half a day earlier than planned at $11.2 billion or almost $13 billion if it exercises an overallotment option it will represent the biggest share sale in hong kong in nearly a decade. it will also boost their cash reserves to nearly $45 billion, begging the question what does alibaba do with all of that cash in past years the company has not shied away from buying its way into new businesses or markets. put $4 billion into lizata $800 million for a controlling stake, the south china morning post for $266 million, koala for $2 billion so alibaba could continue the shopping spree with fresh capital or always just use the proceeds to return money to shareholders through dividends and/or buybacks. shares are up 40% this year but over the last two years they're
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flat it could be a way to boost their share price and potentially shift their investor base to hong kong, a process it may just be starting tonight. back to you, melissa. >> deirdre bosa in san francisco. you're watching this very closely. >> yeah, so this deal is incorporate becau important because you brought in an enormous retail audience. this stock has not been available in asian trading hours. no, they didn't need to raise this money but this is more about diversifying the investor base one of the reasons it's been flat the last two years, this is one of the ultimate proxy trade war talks. so 190 is your top there that to me is critical breakout. i think we're close. the stock trades at a peg ratio of 0.5 if you look at the mega cap stocks around the world, this is as cheap as any. >> the idea of essentially doing a secondary in hong kong, just do it and putting that cash on your thing, it seems like a fairly brilliant transaction i think it was interesting she said the company has kept a low profile during this listing.
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i think there will be increased demand for more shares in hong kong specifically. >> if memory serves, bonowin was here recently and talked about the alibaba and he said there was a real good chance to go back to the 205 level. why is everyone smiling at me, in june of 2018. >> the addition of the article in front of the company. >> the alibaba. >> we've seen more and more baba being bought and the 205 strike is exactly what they're going for. i'm in the calls and i've seen a lot of activity. >> up next, final trades sundown vitamins are all
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final trade time pete. >> we have seen some monster paper in eem, today it was even bigger 100,000 calls bought to the upside, i'm in those giddy up, this is going higher. >> this alibaba could be for something going sideways and financial, i like it. >> dan. >> carter worth on this program a couple of weeks ago called that xlp
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>> guy. >> it's a fun show tonight >> they're always fun, guy. >> you know, the blackstone if you look, and it is the blackstone, bx, that's been stealth to the upside. the stock is going higher. >> all right we'll see u ckyoba here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramefr starts right now there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. who are these people who keep saying stocks are too expensive ask if they're so pricey why do see large

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