way? "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. joining us for all three hours tom farley, the ceo of far point acquisition group and former president of the nyce and cnbc contributor. great to see you. >> good morning. >> thanks for being here all rested ready to go >> ready to go maybe we have all-time record in the stock markets today. >> we'll check it out. the dow futures are indicated up by 122 points. s&p futures are up by 12 the nasdaq up by 30. first trading day of the month

of december and november was a very strong month for stocks, even though you did see some declines on black friday you're looking at the best returns we saw since june for all of the major averages. last week again, you did see some big gains too right now the dow, s&p and nasdaq are still less than 1 to 2% of the intraday highs with these gains, you'll see them challenging that as tom mentioned. >> although, i also remember last -- the first trading day of december last year. >> not quite as much fun. >> i still have some night mares about that. >> would not be the only one with scars leftover from that. >> i think the dow was down 15% at one point in december last year we were having a great year. markets were up, not up like they are this year. >> bottomed on christmas eve, december 24th and saw things take off from there. it's been a very strong year. >> will a santa claus rally power the s&p 500 and dow to their best year in a generation? >> could happen. >> we're up a lot. >> what will that take to get

there, 5%? >> probably. but you're getting up in the 3s there, aren't you? which you probably wrnd around, '94, '95, '96 three years of plus add that up. things double. what's the rule of 72, 72 divided by 30 -- >> basically 2. >> yeah. like two years things double in two years. >> most of it is earnings driven as well. there's some multiple expansion. but a lot of earnings growth. >> it's a goldie locks low rates. low unemployment no inflation not much -- still a lot -- >> shaking of recession. we'll look at jobs this friday with the jobs report coming out but is expected to show more strength and the consumer. >> it's been a strong consumer and just like this holiday weekend continues to be. we should have a pretty decent holiday season. >> these are big gains

i think where are we, 3180 or something. where are we on the s&p. >> 3140. the record is 3150 and change. >> but you know, we're supposed to be at -- >> we're indicated up by 13 points this morning. >> you saw the ten year higher yields 185. president trump just tweeting couple thing. this is one of the things he said, brazil and argentina presiding other a massive devaluation of their currencies which is not good for our farmers. however, therefore effective immediatelily restore the tariffs on all steel and aluminum that is shipped into the u.s. from those countries. the federal reserve should like wise act so to the countries of which there are many no longer take advantage of our strong dollar of further devaluing their currencies makes it hard for our manufacturers and farmers to fairly export their

goods. lower rates. and loosen -- >> you're rooting for higher rates to show us that we're -- we have an improving economy. >> yep 185. he tweeted something else which was kind of -- you don't see president trump quoting chris wallace very often, but he did this morning in a positive -- chris wallace, something that played into the president's hand instead of against president's hand he's tweeting chris wallace. that's not always in a positive way. black friday shoppers spent less time in stores. more time shopping online this year we can't travel online, can we >> can't travel online. >> that's always going to be an issue, weather. >> right. >> you can wait an extra day if you're something you order online doesn't come, but you don't have to go to the stores, do you >> one of the interesting thing with the stores, look what they're doing with buy online pickup in store and the other thing that companies are doing, they're offering coupons now to come back later in the month if you spend a certain amount.

>> they need a whole new staff that doesn't wait on customers grabbing stuff to shop for people. >> it creates problems for a lot of these companies for walmart, they have the fulfillment people going through but they're kind of taking stuff off the shelves that the guy who runs the store wants on the shelves for those reasons. they report through to different lines. online sale strength isn't always strength for stores. >> right. >> today is cyber monday. >> you can bring more traffic coming through. >> courtney knows about this it's cyber monday, courtney. you're at a -- have they asked you to push anything around and grab some stuff off the shelves yet? you're in bethlehem at a fulfillment center >> i don't think i can it looks like everything at me is random but it's done very purposefully you'll see cat food next to a frozen toy and that's done on purpose. i'm not allowed to touch anything because i'll screw up the system, but this is just one of walmart's six fulfillment campuses around the country

that's going to be fulfilling those online orders today on this cyber monday. and also potentially some of the orders from over the weekend still coming in. today the national retail federation thinks 69 million americans will shop. even though we set records on black friday, today is expected to a record day online with sales up 19% hitting $9.4 billion. if that happens here in this country, we'll be the biggest day of the year and the biggest day ever in the united states for online shopping. but just like black friday, the timing has sort of shifted for cyber monday remember in the older days you didn't necessarily have high speed internet at home or computer that had access to it and you shopped once you got to work for cyber monday so the peaks were in the morning or midday around lunch, not anymore. today the peak is expected for cyber monday, peak volume to happen much later tonight between 7 and 11:00 p.m. pacific time that is a big difference that has been happening over the

years, too, even with the online shopping now, deliver is a company that helps third party merchants fulfill their orders so they work with merchants on walmart.com, ebay, shopify and said on black friday that their average daily volume was up 3.7 times compared to a normal recent friday and that was higher than last black friday when their volume was three times as heavy so we'll see if that continues for the third party merchants on some of these platforms here today. in store getting preliminary results. shopper track says that thanksgiving traffic in store was up 2% but that black friday in store traffic was down about 6%, so that evens out to down 3% over those two days at least the preliminary numbers were showing like we said record online so so far still shaping up to be a strong season and we got a big day ahead. back over to you guys. >> courtney, one quick question for you. if the prime is expected to be 7 to 11:00 p.m. pacific time,

that's aftermidnight east coast time so do those sales even count for cyber monday sales or do they get kicked to the next day? >> that's a good question. i think that they do count because i think it depends actually on where that person was in the time zone that they're in and how that counts but even -- i looked at that time too i thought 7 to 11 pacific time, what does that mean for eastern time and actually last year and then even on prime day, we did see actually some pretty high spikes around that 10:00 p.m. eastern time so once the kids are in bed, dishes are done, you crawl into bed, you have your phone and you order that one last thing. so, we actually did see that similar pattern even on a prime day this past year >> i dare you to turn around and touch something. come on. do it. touch it >> switch it around. >> i don't want to do it. >> just touch it. >> move the labels do something. >> just touch it you did it you did it well done. >> reporter: i did it. >> breaking the law. >> thanks. >> breaking the law.

>> block chain >> they can't tell you to not do it courtney, great to see you and check in later. >> thanks. you, too. >> joining us to talk more about cyber monday and how the holiday shopping weekend went, the ceo of tellsy advisory group bhach did you think? >> i thought it went pretty well >> walmart did it right after halloween and saw a lot of others like that, too. now it's considered a five-day weekend not just a two-day weekend or a three-day weekend and you still have a long way to go so it's an on track weekend so far. black friday companies are opening on thanksgiving day opening at 5:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. and coming back on black friday it was slow friday morning it picked up in the afternoon. luckily this weather on in the northeast didn't happen until yesterday plus we needed saturday also. >> although, a lot of the country did get hit over the weekend. did that affect places like minnesota or -- >> yes. >> some of the other great plain

states. >> except. it hit some of the west coast also so you're going to see some of that impact. but they can order online, too and what you mentioned about the stores before, fulfilling orders is part of it. they will right size in the terms of the way they are. >> the size of the store the size of the store may not -- how much is going to be for fulfillment, how much will be for showing goods. it's all going to look different in a couple years just like the patterns of shopping are different today. >> who are the big winners would you say at this point in the holiday season >> best buy big winner walmart and target big winner. it was all the big box players dicks sports goods a big winner. i heard lulu lemon was a winner this holiday season. big box off price also won i think the department stores are still a little slower. >> dana, the total sales for today are expected to be around about 9 billion, 10 billion. when you compare to alibaba's singles day it's a drop in the

bucket. >> right. >> so where does this end? does this just keep going in the u.s. more and more online sales? does retail just collapse for these types of goods to effectively nothing excluding luxury and jewelry and high fashion? >> convenience and ease matter but something to be said for tradition and experience of it. >> the smell. >> well, some of it. >> bathrooms. >> consumers doing with this with their kids together with families it's an entertainment and sport. so i think you're always going to have something like it. >> they're all mixed together. >> sometimes >> people hustle and bustle and makeup counter not at the makeup counter, walk by the makeup. i have people do that -- >> for you. >> you getting used to that talking about makeup and stuff with your buddies. it's a little weird. >> i don't mention it actually >> yeah. you got some on today.

even though, i would argue that come in here without anything -- >> fragrance is one of the top categories >> better get used to it. >> tom never show your tells like that. now you just relegated yourself to hours and hours of makeup jokes. >> i'm blushing but you can't see because i'm caked in an inch of makeup. >> that's one of your stories. good >> you do realize he's hunting >> probing >> one of the things i find interesting is you look at some of the luxury brands and they're in-store traffic is increasing but yet everything else we see is how in-store is going away. it feels like in the future that's what store traffic is. >> that experience >> and look what companies are doing for experiences. i was in bloomingdales last night and all of a sudden they have different areas where you can take a picture with something or every single floor there's something that should attract a customer there and some is through the food that companies are doing you're seeing singers. you're seeing entertainment.

look at some of the active stores they have batting cages in order to play baseball so, it's a new world out there in terms of how you have to marry the activity of buying with the activity of doing >> dana, thank you great to see you. >> thank you. >> one more quick question. >> sure. >> what overall percentage of sales are online sales at this point? watching it creep up every year. >> it could be near 13% of sales. >> wow. >> yeah. it's moving certainly higher. >> dana, thanks a lot. >> thank you good to see you, too. president tweeting one minute ago u.s. markets are up as much as 21% since the announcement of tariffs on march 1, 2018. the u.s. is taking in massive amounts of money and giving some to our farmer bhos have been targeted by china. coming up, we will get you ready for the final trading month of the year. that would be december is it december >> it is >> december 2nd. thus is my watch only 30 days in november so it gets messed up we can put a man on the moon supposedly

after last year's december south, that 8.7% drop for the dow, what can you expect this year doesn't look like it so far. good start to the month if we were to hold these gains up 108 on the dow. the s&p indicated up 11. the nasdaq a solid 27.5 points ♪ what are you doing back there, junior?

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welcome back, everybody. some positive economic data out of china manufacturing numbers surprising investors coming in stronger than expected. you look right now and see the nikkei closed up by just over 1% there were also gains for the shanghai composite and the hang seng eunice yoon is in beijing and joins us right now eunice, what's going on? >> thanks so much, becky it was the november pmi data and it beat expectations this was for the private index, which tracks business conditions for small and medium-sized companies. and the number came in at 51.8, which showed manufacturing expanding at its fastest pace in three years. so this number came after the official number, which tracks a large manufacturers and released over the weekend also showed a recovery that's because of a rebound in output

in new orders. the nonmanufacturing pmi also jumped from an eight-month loeld to an eight month high all of the stronger data could potentially give some more confidence to the chinese negotiators to believe that they might have the time to continue to wait for better terms for a trade deal in the state press today yet again, there was no wavering at all in beijing's position, especially when it comes to tariffs. the communist party paper the global times quoted a former chinese official for the phase 1 trade deal having the u.s. roll back tariffs is a must also today the foreign ministry announced countermeasures against the u.s. for its support of the hong kong human rights bill the foreign ministry said as of today china will suspend port calls for the u.s. navy and sanction several u.s.-based ngos for, quote, supporting what it described as extremist, violent

activities in hong kong. so china isn't still -- still isn't linking the hong kong situation to the trade talks, but you can imagine that the tensions aren't really helping the discussions between the u.s. and china. >> yeah. we're watching that, eunice, obviously. initially once you signed it, i thought uh-oh. but the reason the markets handled it so well was because there was sort of the body language that we still -- we're not going to let this affect us. >> didn't really mean it. >> we want a deal. maybe china does need a deal maybe people like cramer and others that point that out that maybe there is something even though -- trump -- it was a veto-proof majority that we had in the house and the senate. so it wasn't going to matter any way. so china i think knows that and maybe that's part of it, too but we'll see. >> yeah. i think that a lot of people

here, joe, did understand that, that even if president trump were to veto it, that it was going to go through any way. so when i was talking to people here, they said, oh, he's probably not going to do much. he's just going to let it pass but, they have been reading his body language. >> yeah. >> but even so, the chinese, they want to have a trade deal it's just the terms. that's what's really important and so, you know, we're just seeing it over and over again in the staid media and discussions that they really want to have tariffs lifted and one official, this is the same thing we heard, it doesn't matter how or when it's lifted, in phases or all at once, but at the end of the day it's a face issue. they want to make sure there are tariffs lifted in order to make sure they can market back home that china got something back out of this as well. >> eunice, thank you we could talk longer still orlando is dog gone bullish i'm afraid to read this.

i'm not afraid made me feel good. the hair on the back of my neck is like wow this is the greatest times -- this is like you're describing goldie locks. we have a lot to be thankful for. i got misty when i read that it's true for thanksgiving labor market hasn't been this robust many in a half a century. suddenly wage growth the pace has doubled over the last decade. stock markets more than quadrupled since the bottom of the great recession, longest expansion 126 months no recession on horizon, no inflation, 11% decline in gas prices anything worrying you? that worries me that nothing is worrying you. >> well, it's all good we just talked about is china going to happen? when i was on two months ago we thought that the october 10th meeting was going to go well and the apec summit would be the closing deal. >> oops. >> that got cancelled. now we're struggling to find out when is this thing going to be signed so you have the nato summit in

london this week does it happen this week i don't know >> that's interesting. >> you have this december 15th is the next date at which the next level of tariffs are going up i'm hoping that we can get some cooling of emotions ahead of that but that's the one fly in the o ointment, joe. >> yeah. >> are we able to consummate the skinny phase 1 deal? >> what about weak manufacturing trends the fly in the ointment. >> joe read the rest of the note on camera, there's been this dichotomy between strong consumer, weak manufacturer. we look at the weak manufacturing, we're identifying three sources. this on going trade and tariff problem with china the gm strike and the boeing situation. the gm strike has been settled we're hoping we can get some better news out of china over the course of this month we think that max boeing situation is starting to make some progress, we get into the

first quarter of next year we'll get some fixes in place. so as we look at calendar 2020, we think the fourth quarter here, fourth quarter of next year are going to be still soft relative to manufacturing, but at that point second quarter on we start to see re-acceleration. that represents a different point of view for fed rated versus a lot of firms that there was an article in the journal over the weekend that the rest of the street is sort of looking for a deceleration in economic activity over the last of the year we think that deceleration has already happened over the course of the last 12 months. we're at a trough now starting to turn and that turn will accelerate starting in the second quarter of next year. >> a lot of the people that i speak to, the private equity community don't think it will be a deceleration but an outright recession. do you see that as -- i hear you that your base case is we're at a trough and things are improving. is a recession possible next

year >> no. our proprietary recession dash board has been very clear on this, no recession in '18 or '19 or '20 the earliest that we see a recession is the first half of 2021 probably towards the middle of the year. so we don't see any risk of recession looking out over the next 12 months. >> so you -- do people come up and tell you, wow, phil, you stuck with this. you've been steadfast for 18 months >> well, that's the thing. that this time last year we were looking for 3,100 s&p this year. and that was a wildly out of consensus number. >> right. >> we got there two weeks ago. so now we're looking for 3,500 number, looking out full year 2020 people are saying, you were lucky last year. you're not going to be lucky twice in a row we think the fundamentals are still strong you have benign inflation but relatively low interest rate so our target multiple over on 18 times earnings in our view is a reasonable number.

we're looking for 2.4% gdp growth for the u.s. economy next year the street is at 1.8 the difference between the two of them in our opinion is that we've got a more marginally constructive view on china and the rest of the street we think china is actually -- we're going to see some skinny phase 1 deal and then corporate earnings we think last year, this year, 2019 was a consolidation off of phenomenal '18. we think we get low toed my-single digit pace of growth next year. $180 -- >> earnings growth or revenue growth >> both. >> low to single >> correct if we're al $180 in s&p earnings for next year which is our forecast and 18, 18.5 multiple get to our 3,500, yeah. >> so what is that high single digits >> in terms of where we are now, 3150, we're looking at 10% -- >> high single, maybe just

double digits. >> spoiler alert, we're not going to be up 32% next year, but we do think it will be a positive year. >> and the 18 p.e. may sound high to people if they think of the historical p.e. averages interest rates at 1.8 -- >> that's the point. core pc at 1.7 and treasury yields at 175. that environment, 18, 18.5 multiple is perfectly legitimate. >> or higher. >> phil, great to see you. >> hey, becky, thanks for having me. when we come back a new report says that private equity money is piling up that's next on "squawk box." ♪ each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity.

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at the season of audi sales event. u.s. private equity firms are reportedly struggling to find ways to spend the record amount of cash they're sitting on u.s. buyouts by these firms hit just over $155 billion in the first ten months of this year, but the cash levels for those north american buyouts hit a record $771.5 billion. the journal sites already expensive takeover candidates getting more costly as part of the cash build up. our guest today is tom farley.

it's phenomenal looking at the premiums paid to take out companies. it makes these buyout firms more nervous. we have to make sure the math works before we make a purchase. >> the whole game 20 years ago you buy companies for a lower multiple they would otherwise trade public market. now when they find a company in the public market, pay a premium, take it private and really have to run the business perfectly. i think this year m&a activity overall in the united states is about equal to last year, but private equity firms are raising so much dough. blackstone raised 25 billion in a single fund this year. just that's just one of black stone's many funds you keep hearing numbers like this of vista also raised a giant fund i think it was $17 billion. it's hard to deploy that capital. >> warren buffett has $128 billion in cash in hand according to the latest s.e.c. filings. they're looking for ways to deploy it, too and budding up

against private equity tech data is a company that got taken out by apollo. buffett bid over that and apollo bid over that. he is stepping back but stepping into places they hadn't before. >> it's a mie koe come of what we were talking about with private equity apollo makes an aggressive bid to start, paying a premium for large public company warren buffett comes over the top with a bid substantially higher, 6% higher, all cash. >> $130 a share to 140. >> 130 to 140 and apollo within a few days came become and raised it another couple percent to 145 so much money sloshing around that even warren buffett paying all cash quickly, paying a full price can't get a deal done. >> yeah. interesting to watch in the markets. having said that, people will still look at stocks and say, they're not necessarily overvalued buffett made the point earlier this year he told us that the premium you're paying to take out a whole company is much

higher but still much rather buy stocks than put money in treasuries look at rates so low and where stock prices are, the valuations could go up from here. >> that seems to be the theme of the morning. we just talked with rates at 1.85 paying the market multiple seems reasonable. coming up, travel. i did some traveling wow. that was fun >> be thankful you're home there's a lot of people traveling back this morning. you're in. >> yeah. you have a lot to worry about delays but it's not just to land on a runway that's not icy is a better way to go than icy one. travel might nar more than 1,000 flights cancelled on the biggest travel weekend of the year. how good are these guys and these companies getting you up, getting you down, all of the different planes coming in and out of the new york area it's amazing your road warrior update is next you actually do have to be one we have to get you and also tell you about gifts under your tree

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good morning, everybody, this is "squawk box. welcome back we have been watching the u.s. equity futures on this first trading day of the month and you're going to see that right now there are some green arrows. actually we cut our gains by about half since we started watching this. the dow futures are still indicated up by 65 points. s&p futures are up by just over 6 points then the nasdaq is up by about 14.5 heavy snow is in the united states cancelled more than 1,000 flights since yesterday. and delayed thousands more

the winter weather turned the busiest travel day of the year into a bit of a nightmare. the storm is expected to dump a foot of snow in the boston metro area by this morning and also brought freezing rain and snow to an area of the great lakes to the northeast. the sunday after thanksgiving is also the busiest day of the year for america's roadways the snow and the freezing rain created slick conditions and traffic jams for millions of people driving in the northeast corridor as we mentioned, it's not over yet. people are still trying to get back and that winter weather is continuing in the northeast this morning. aply, disney east "frozen 2" setting a box office bringing in $123 million in north american ticket sales over the five-day weekend. that beat the previous record of 110 million set by "hunger games" back in 2013. the global total for "frozen 2" reached 738 million, well on its way to becoming disney's sixth movie to gross more than $1 billion globally this year

despite the big block busters from disney, to date the box numbers are lagging by 6%. coming up a holiday shopping season officially under way. but be careful what you buy. we have a list of the tech gadgets that would be compromised by hackers or foreign governments. later don't miss our guest host michael ruben. we'll talk the state of the sports industry sort of is a proxy for how many jerseys you sale it's back. really is because of draftking i had a good day yesterday three out of four. stay tuned >> you had a good day back to $580 months of toiling and you're up 80 bucks. >> i'm up after. i haven't put a dime in. 500 in i'm $580 okay what is that, that's like 15%, isn't it ♪ >> announcer: today's big number, $143.7 billion

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there's the cincinnati bengals and then there's the bangles. >> our off air conversations work their way into the show. >> the gifts and what was -- you knew the lead singers name. >> suzanna hof. >> you like her voice? >> well, i first got into their music when i was 13 years old. the fact that she was a beautiful woman and terrific singer. >> easy now. easy now. >> i was a fan, too. >> okay. there you go >> give him credit. >> i had no idea that gender -- i'm totally blind to all that stuff. the gifts under your christmas tree might be spying on you or putting your accounts at risk. and these four gifts from huawei, lennova, are prime offenders. joining us with a closer look at the tech gifts to avoid this holiday season, let's welcome rosalynn lleyton cofounder of china tech threat.com and aei visiting scholar and rosalynn, i identify with

this whole segment because my alexa has never come out of the box. once i thought about it, honestly and it's just -- i'm not ready to move into the future like the rest of the lemmings now i have to worry about -- tell us about these four one at a time what do we have to worry about. >> sure. well, i have -- so for example i have a huawei phone with me today. you know, you've probably heard a lot about huawei in the news because of the network equipment, but this is a phone that you can buy, sell on amazon, but about half of all huawei phones have been identified to have a back door, security vulnerability that will allow your -- you to be watched, your data to be siffened away and you have no idea that that's going on that's one example the other would have lenova ideapad. it was once an american company owned by ibm and bought by the chinese. that company was fined by the federal trade commission last

year for privacy violations where software was installed that was tracking people on the computer has also a fingerprint identification system which can also steal your fingerprints alex mark printer yet another with security vulnerability and the go pro cameras as well have a glitch that can allow a hacker to infiltrate them and get your data so you're absolutely right to be concerned. >> go pro? go pro is on the list, too >> yes well, because it has -- it's not a chinese company but has a glitch in it that can be infiltrated by hackers so, you know, these are just -- i think the challenge here for consumers is that there's a lot of things that they can buy on amazon and target, walmart, best buy. they have no idea that there is security vulnerabilities in there and our sort of regulatory system, even though we have lots of regulations all over the place, it doesn't follow through to the end consumer. and you have no disclosures on

the phone. so i agree with you. i understand if you feel concerned about taking the alexa out of the box because, you know, we don't have full assurance of what's in there. >> i think there's safety in numbers. everybody has an alexa even samsung tvs, is that true that samsung can actually have a receiver in it to pick up conversations? i don't know whether that may be an urban legend. go ahead >> let me explain -- there's a couple reasons what could data be used for. it's not necessarily you might not experience attack in your life, but part of the reason is that there's a lot of large chinese i.t. companies, tech firms, who compete with facebook and google who want to be able to enter the american market, same way that tiktok has and so, our data can be accumulated and assembled into data bases in china where chinese companies can study them to look at how could they market

to americans so it's very passive nothing that you might experience harm in your life, but your data can be used and assembled in those ways. if, for example, you would work for a major firm and might have access to intellectual property information or other kinds of sensitive data within your company, that's also a point of vulnerability. if you recall the opm hack, office of personnel management, over 30 million records of americans working for the government they had extremely valuable information they were employees. they had security clearances and so on and those folks they were particular people who had access to information they were hacked by hackers working for the chinese government and they have experienced some identity fraud in their life and other problems >> you mentioned -- >> so this is one of the things that you might not experience it today but it could be your data is being assembled into a giant

data base to study what do americans do and chinese company can come in and market to particular segments. >> rosalynn, you mentioned tiktok if it weren't for school and their parents, our daughters would be on tiktok all day long. they absolutely love it. is that something that should give moe and millions of fathers and mothers like me pause? >> definitely. i mean, even -- certainly for kids this is a tool used by child predators, for example but on another level, a lot of american military people have been using that tool and it knows exactly where people are so, soldiers who are in the field, when they have time off they might make a video with a tiktok app that data goes back to a server in china, operated with an affiliate of the chinese government and can find out where american military people are and their interests and so on so it's really scary and we may -- the kind of rules

and restrictions we have on the books can some extent protect or restrict certain parties from using this, let's say you're working for the navy or something like that. not necessarily. there are so many products and services out there that have data being brought back to in cn be processed, analyzed you've probably seen the social credit system working in china that is now being performed on americans and we don't even realize it. >> amazing i'm glad aei is watching all of this keep it up i'm willing to give away a lot of privacy for google maps >> when people ask you you give permission to do it. check us out on china tech grid.com. >> my information is worth money, too, and no one pays me for it either. >> absolutely. >> they steal it and i search something and the very next moment i see an advertisement for a hotel in that area. >> because you're using the search engine.

>> i'm okay with that. i don't want them sending it to china so that they -- >> right which is why go pro surprised me. >> roslyn, thank you for being with us this morning appreciate it. when we come back, we will tell you what these three stocks have in common amazon, home depot and activision blizzard. we'll tell you why it may be meo d emti tadth to your portfolio as we head into the end of the year. step up, please. empty your pockets. looks like you're all set for that business trip. you've got your smartphone, laptop, your other smartphone... woman: is this all the devices you have? your tablet... seriously? smartwatch, your backup tablet, and... woman: anything else in your bag? ...whatever that is. (beeping) this isn't working. introducing samsung mobile workspace solutions. with the galaxy note10 with dex software,

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cyber monday kicking off a few hours ago. our next guest says amazon is her topics heading in. leah bennett is westwood's

wealth management president. why do you like shares of amazon >> it's interesting. online spending certainly continues to take share so amazon obviously dominates the group. they represent 40 cents of every dollar that people spend online. they've definitely dominated the market they continue to innovate. what we basically are looking for next year is an increase in share. whenever you see innovation and profitability, they are usually not coupled or linear. >> you think this is a downturn that's going to be a temporary one and the stock will go back up >> definitely. i think they're going to utilize technology a lot better in order to drive the bottom line you see the use of ai and driverless trucks. there's lots of ways to improve profitability going forward. >> your next stock took a hit last month after it reported mixed earnings home depot, you think that's a similar situation where this is a one off and they'll come

roaring back, too? >> yeah. they're around new strategic initiatives. i think that will be the case going forward. the loss in profitability due to increased spend around these strategic initiatives, it's not lost, just deferred until next year i think you're going to see a return to profitability. the consumer is extremely engaged in spending. >> we're close to the end of time activision blizzard. strong balance sheet. >> very strong balance sheet they dominate the space. they have fantastic names. call of duty will be strong this holiday season >> leah, thanks for coming in. >> pleasure. coming up, we're going to talk about cyber monday shopping here it is a live shot of an amazon fulfillment center in realto, california you have to take our word for it could be next door back east courtney ragan is on

the cyber monday front line. that sounds dangerous. one of walmart's six fulfillment centers. put your hair back or something. i don't want it to get caught in one of those things. what's coming up >> reporter: i know, right there's 12 miles of conveyor belts. people are already shopping. products flying around we're going to tell you what to expect on this cyber monday as we're live in a walmart fulfillment center in bethlehem, pennsylvania, coming up on "squawk box.

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ready, set, shop this should be the most wonderful time of the year for the retail industry. early winners and losers straight ahead. 21 days, that's how many trading sessions are left in 2019 we will get you ready. plus, taxing wealth as democratic presidential hopefuls bash billionaires, we're getting new polling information on what young voters think about that topic. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

goods morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. the former president of the nyse and cnbc contributor is here and be our guest host is michael reuben, executive chairman of fanatics it's great to have you we have so many things to talk about. love it when you're here. >> always fun to be here. >> sales, just overall for nfl stuff. up how much this year? >> up in the 20s they've been great >> we've tried to grapple with figuring this out. >> listen, you've seen every metric in the nfl up. >> i'm leading to draft kings and fan duel we can do that. >> lead away >> you just said 40% what's up 40%? >> the online business of nfl is

up 40%. >> wait a second is that because of the deal with walmart.com or is that just because -- >> so fanatics this weekend, so far it's up 126%. we've been up 26% from thursday to sunday. the two leaders have been nfl and ncaa they're up 40% it's been crushing it. and i think in general a lot of metrics that people are worried about in sports, you know, how individual tv ratings have been able to bounce back strongly, for me, the best barometer is how strongly sports are doing is merchandise sales. it's not worrying is someone consuming media on tv. >> i think a lot of it is what you're doing particularly at fanatics moves that you've made that outreflect sports -- >> i agree 100%. i think if you look at what's the licensed sports market overall. >> right >> probably growing 3 to 5% when as a company we're going from

2.5 billion to 3.2 billion. >> is that businesses himself? >> he's not going to disagree with it. >> i think it is i agree with you, becky. >> it's just because he signed be a deal with walmart.com and that gives him greater distribution. >> push back >> i like to disagree with you >> push back. >> becky by nature, more thought full. >> thank you, michael. >> licensed sports overall as a category is up 3 to 5%. >> you're up way more. >> online is taking more share than offline when we look at this past weekend up 26% as a company, that's incredible sales. we're getting maybe all of the growth and maybe some share gains as well. >> and is most of that jerseys >> you know, i was just looking. i was curious. so jerseys are the number one category number two product this weekend, new orleans saints nfc championship t-shirts. didn't think that one would sneak in there

number 3 was the dallas cowboys salute to hoodie new england patriots holiday pajama set number five, big logo slippers and last but not least, no one would get this one, the washington nationals locker room t-shirts when you win the world series in the beginning of november, that carries over to christmas. >> buying it for christmas >> yeah. yeah jersey's the biggest category, 35% of our business. lots of things that we 1esell what's incredible, black friday was the biggest day in the country's history. bigger than last year's cyber monday generally speaking black friday in the new year can never beat the previous cyber monday. >> we have people standing around that want to talk retail. they want me to come back to you. then i want to talk to you about something else. >> then we can disagree. >> no, i don't think we'll disagree about how the -- if you can put just a small amount of

wager on a game, i am glued to the tv set i landed yesterday and it was i think 4:10 and the game started at 4:25 and i couldn't bet because i was not in new jersey before that. i had like 12 minutes to get some bets. >> you're an addict. >> on those two 4:25 games which i won. >> which games >> i took denver and they won and i also took kansas city and they won i had 12 minutes my thing still wasn't saying i was in new jersey. >> you were over new jersey air space. >> no, that wouldn't work because i didn't -- anyway, but -- and then i watched both games. i couldn't watch the other one but i'm glued to it. >> it's great for the ratings. you've seen me say this consistently for three or four years. number one, i think every decade there's a company in sports that kind of is the special company of the decade. i think we're fortunate to have been that company the last decade i think fanatics has created an incredible business out of what was an archaic and not exciting

business i think sports gamble is the next business. it's not just about the money that's going to be made in sports gambling because i think that's great >> it's big. >> it's the engagement it's going to be people like you are addicted. >> addicted is a strong word. >> we're going to work to get your nbc paychecks to go -- >> i started with $500 and it's still -- four months i'm at $480. >> how many replenishments. >> he's playing with the same pot. i do it because he tells me every move he's completely addicted >> is he still awake when he does the show. >> before i went down to georgia on wednesday i made all of my bets forthursday, friday, saturday, sunday. >> you're making your case for your not being an addict. >> then i knew i would be back by 4 so i didn't bet -- >> the key take away, what we've been saying for years, as sports

betting becomes legal, regulated it's going to be great for the sports industry, not because of the dollars generated but because of engagement. >> that's why we see ratings this year. the nfl's ratings are spectacular. i think they're up 5 or 6% this year up against a big gain. >> see, this is going to be good as we've been talking, out of turn really, retail's front and center this morning. cnbc has full coverage of the sector kate still might be there. she might have left. kate rogers focusing on small business thanks for hanging around, kate. let's begin with courtney ragan at the walmart fulfillment center maybe you want to join draft kings with me. i'll give you my picks i don't know. >> reporter: you know what, also michael forgot to mention that ohio state was the number one college team over the weekend at fanatics a stat i didn't hear him say i am here at the walmart distribution center. this is one of six of these fulfillment centers. they're going to be fulfilling

those online orders. it's 1.2 million square feet there are 12 miles of conveyors. from the time you place an order from the time that item is picked, packed, shipped out, it can be done in just about an hour the national retail federation suggests 69 million americans will shop. adobe says we'll break more records today. we did it on thanksgiving, we did it on black friday, today on cyber monday it is expected $9.4 billion will be spent online which will be a new record not just for this day but ever in the united states. interestingly though, the peak sales volume will not be until much later tonight, between 7 and 11 p.m. pacific time so that also means around 10:00 on the east coast you don't have to go to work anymore to get that high speed internet we have it on our phones all the time now deliver is a company that helps third party merchants fulfill their orders third party merchants that sell on walmart, ebay, shopify.

they said their black friday volume was 3.7 times a normal typical recent friday, but that compares to last black friday that was three times so much stronger than even last year shopify says on black friday they sold over $900 million worth of items across the platform that's a lot of small and medium businesses and those sales were up about 48% in the u.s so winners all around here we'll see what happens on this cyber monday i'm going to send it over to kate rogers for more on small business hi, kate. >> reporter: hey, court. small business sentiment is on the rise heading into 2019 take a look at this. overall confidence rose 2 points to 59 bouncing back from lows not seen in two years in our survey right now only 9% of small business owners say that they describe their business conditions as bad while more than half say that current conditions are good. they're planning on increases in both revenue and head count heading into 2020. the boost in this quarter,

that's due to increased optimism around trade one quarter saying that they expect the trade policies will have a positive impact on business that's the highest number in two years. nearly half also say they believe that technological changes like 5g will improve the business conditions moving forward. despite this increased optimism finding skilled labor we all know is a major challenge for small businesses 1/5 say they have unfilled positions that have been open for at least three months. that's an increase of 2% from this time last year. in order to attract or retain workers in this tight labor market, small business owners are telling us that they're doing things like raising pay, increasing the types of benefits offered and even doing more creative things like paying off student debt for their workers, becky. back over to you. >> kate, thank you very much who better to talk retail this cyber monday than our guest host michael reuben he's the executive chairman of fanatics we didn't get into guilt very

much. >> guilt was up 40%, nearly 40% this week and it's been terrific overall company has been performing really well overall, if you want to talk about ecommerce, we used to think of black friday as a brick and mortar holiday, cyber monday as the ecommerce holiday it's now like cyber weekend. that's really where this is. everything is about ecommerce is the most important channel. >> what kind of discounts ordeals did you offer to consumers over the black friday weekend? >> we've always offered great value to consumers in all of our businesses it hasn't changed year over year the value this year over last year -- >> but you do offer discounts? >> absolutely. if you don't offer discounts, you won't bring them on. they expect that no different than fast delivery the discounts don't change year to year. i'd say our average tis count in the sports business is 25 to 30%. it's been that way for years

that's what consumers expect that's where the market is we deliver great value along with great service and a brand that they really trust. >> you know what i also expect as a consumer is that the deals will not stop. that i will get them before thanksgiving, i will get them black friday, i will get them cyber monday i anticipate that i'm going to continue to get email offers from these cyber retailers. >> you're 100% right here's what's a little bit tricky about this holiday season people haven't figured out if you look at everyone in november everyone's november sales as a month was awful, including ours. because the thanksgiving weekend shifted into december. >> right. >> we look at yesterday and today, two of the -- you know, the largest days being cyber monday of the year and sunday which is probably one of the top five days of the year, those are december days. and so you ran -- you're running really down as you're -- >> lousy counts for november but better ones for december. >> in order to look at this, what do you do in november and december that's the way we think about

it i will say we're up thanksgiving weekend to thanksgiving weekend 26% at fanatics which is a good sign >> the other thing you have happening this retail season is because thanksgiving was so late it's going to compress the number of days by six fewer calendar days between thanksgiving and christmas that's a big deal for brick and mortar business but i'm guessing it's a bigger teal for shipping. >> it is because online shopping generally ends around the 19th or 20th. brick and mortar ends the 24th generally there's a lull after the cyber five weekend there won't be a lull this year. tuesday's going to be right back at it, wednesday right back at it you have big gains you need to be running up 20, 25% every day to make up for the shorter days. >> it means i'm right to think i'll keep getting cyber deals. >> what is walmart doing around expectations on shipping amazon stock has been flat one of the reasons is they've gn to single day shipping, same day

shipping when i go to order a jersey, i have a closet full. >> thank you i like a closet full the closet is joe betting $20 a game. >> i did 40 last night >> 40 a game >> it's a progressive disease, that's why i'm worried. >> perfect we need to move from the closet to the house. >> i -- the baseball jersey, you've done it, i want it tomorrow because amazon has moved my expectations. are you seeing that in your business >> couple things one, there's no question in ecommerce amazon is the gold standard when it comes to speed of delivery. they have raised the bar for everybody to say if you're going to buy, we expect to get the merchandise in what used to be two days, now in one day what they're doing is forcing everyone to be smarter, more thought full the best retailers are saying they're going to use their stores to become distribution centers. they're saying, look, we have an inherent advantage how do we leverage our stores to do the delivery. >> how are you going to do that?

>> for us, a couple of things. number one, i believe firmly that amazon and alibaba are killing everybody, okay? if you don't have something that's completely differentiated, you're dead. i believe that since i sold my last company in 2011 to ebay, i thought that five years before that you have no chance to sell to -- >> in other words, they were the suckers on that end? >> no, i don't think -- >> you bought back everything they wanted. >> they bought the company for a great reason they wanted to make it more competitive with amazon. we need all of these big brands that gsi operates with, ralph lauren, et cetera into the marketplace. my point is you're in a world where amazon and alibaba are killing everyone the only way to win, to be completely differentiated. for us at fanatics we basically sell exclusive product half the merchandise that we sell we design, develop, manufacture. you think of h&m, lululemon.

vertical company 2% when i bought the company back in 2011 it's now over 50%. the other products are exclusive products you can't find on other online marketplaces. without that excludes sift and differentiation, we would be dead that's why fanatics has been so successful i give credit to jeff bezos and amazon if i wasn't so scared of them so long i wouldn't have made our business so differentiated so as you look out long term, who's going to win online? yes, speed of delivery is really important. i'd say the most important thing is to have -- you're not going to beat amazon at speed of delivery you have to have a differentiated product if you don't have that, you're going to be dead a company like lululemon is doing so well. that's why you see fanatics with i.p. that we have doing so well. >> michael is our guest host he's going to be with us for the rest of the hour. >> coming up, 125 million americans are now in the path of

a major winter storm the risk to travel is straight ahead. first, check out the futures right now they have moderated a little up about 75 on the dow, 19 on the nasdaq s&p indicated up just under 8. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc when you retire will you or will you just be you, without the constraints of a full time job? you can grow your retirement savings with pacific life and create the future that's most meaningful to you. which means you can retire, without retiring from life. having the flexibility to retire on your terms. that's the power of pacific. ask your financial professional about pacific life today.

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all right. welcome back, everybody. here's what's making headlines at this hour president trump is reimposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from brazil. the president announced it this morning. he said the two companies have been engineering a massive evaluation of their currencies making it harder for american companies and farmers to export their goods. fiat chrysler has reached a tentative contract with the united auto workers association. that has been subject to ratification it comes as they are getting a deal with the pugot psa group. and macao casino revenue is dropping 8.5% in november. heavy snows in the united states canceled more than 1,000 flights since yesterday. there were quite a few yesterday as well, delayed thousands more.

the winter weather turned the busiest travel day of the year into a nightmare so far today more than 450 flights have been delayed, more than 180 canceled. amazing that michael reuben was able to get in here. this storm is expected to dump a foot of snow into the boston metro area by this morning and -- >> right back at him >> i'm starting it off with a kill. >> we've got another 40 minutes to kill. >> how long were you in the tsa line don't even -- i'll just be quiet. >> it's an easy commute to get here guys like scott, not being sympathetic, he -- >> you don't have a hard commute. >> listen, you were betting on sports times >> they brought freezing rain -- >> i'm jonesing right now. >> it brought freezing rain overnight stretching from the great lakes to the northeast i did look at ncaa today, basketball, i don't know, today, i may do that. >> that's because you have more football. >> i'm going to do -- i can't

bet on kirk cousins, i can't. >> could you go a week without. >> a week without? i told you -- did you hear what i said when i was down there -- >> you bet in advance. >> i pre-bet. >> the answer is no. he needs action all the time >> right right. >> i don't need it all the time. it's fun it's an enhancement to life -- your life experience. >> could you give it up for lint that falls during march madness. >> i gave up giving up things for lent. we'll introduce you to stock exchange for things and talk about the holiday and retail for consumer a reminder, everybody, make sure you subscribe to our squawk podcast. it's called squawk pod for more on this you can look for us on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app. stay tuned, we're back in a minute (vo) the moth without hope, struggles in the spider's web.

with every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled. unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. defy the laws of human nature. at the season of audi sales event. cyber monday is underway some online brands betting on brick and mortar even though revenue is coming in online. joining us with more on that

strategy is scott cutler, the stock exchange of things and michael reuben, executive chairman of fanatics multi-channel. we're not going away explain this new strategy. >> the new strategy is not new you have a shift in buying behavior going from offline to online that's a general ecommerce trend. we're playing with a more meta level. more online and having the ability to buy things that aren't available anywhere else stock market of things, sneakers, street wear, collectibles that's where we're playing into this broad trend of consumer behavior if i go to a cocktail party, do a meta something >> no. just one level above which is, you know, people want access to things that you can't find anywhere else and stockx provides that opportunity particularly in categories like

sneakers as we talked about before, street wear, and, you know, things that you can't get in any other retail location michael's one of the biggest customers. >> off whites. >> they're purple. >> yeah, off white special. came from stockx i'm definitely -- i'm a netanyahu custom new customer. >> michael's one of the top customers. >> i want to get the accurate answer i'm good for 50 pairs in the last two years you're buying sneakers above retail hot sneakers i just got ten pair last week. it's funny the person who helped fund stockx in the beginning was dan gilbert. dan gilbert as you know called me several times when you were starting the business, hey, michael, you should get involved in this. i was dead wrong i said, how big can this thing be it's only the high end sneaker market one question i have for you knowing that when dan called me

several times to get involved i didn't think it would be that big, you're already what a billion dollars plus >> yeah. yeah. >> what categories are you in today or what categories will you be in? i think i completely missed how big it could be. >> when you look at the total size of the market this is the most interesting fact. $100 billion in just sneakers alone. 20% of that would be ecommerce and then the resale marketplace which we participate is half of ecommerce globally and growing at triple digit. it's been an amazing market opportunity. for us as we look at the category expansion, started with sneakers, followed with handbags and watches and then we launched street wear which quickly became our second category and then we launched collectibles. then for us we service customers in 170 different countries and 25% much our business is outside the u.s. the international opportunity for us is a really big one >> the thing i've wondered about the shoes, scott and i worked

together at the stock exchange and scott brought in big marquis listings like alibaba, twitter, we focused a lot on the listings as opposed to focusing on the traders. now you're at stockx are you focusing on the guys listing the shoes or are you focusing on the michaels who are actually buying the shoes? within that, how concentrated is the seller community i'm guessing it's pretty concentrated where you have a relatively few number of professionals who are selling and then the buyers are fragmented but that's just a guess. >> so we have tens of thousands of sellers from around the world so it's largely a marketplace that's powered by sellers from the teenager funding college to somebody who might run a professional business. when i look back at the stock market days when this company was founded, it was founded on the principles of new york stock exchange, stub hub and ebay, all places i had been at when we talk about the stock

market of things, the interesting thing about the user experience on stockx is we have the opportunity to bid and ask for that most sought after thing. so stock market like functionality but also similar to the exchange, it's the place where you trade. so you don't know who you're buying a share of nike stock from, you don't really care, but there is a platform that matches a buyer to seller and we do that in a similar way in ecommerce. that was the idea behind the company. >> scott, now that you've been doing this for a while, what's surprised you the most >> what's surprised me the most is obviously the global opportunity but then as we're going into the holiday season, just the velocity of the transactions black friday, we were doing a transaction every second we were selling thousands of pairs of new releases that had just come out and so as we look at this new type of behavior that's coming into the market,

and people want access to things they can't get, whether it's experiences or goods, it's been mind blowing in terms of the global reaction. >> talk about nike and adidas. the way this used to work, nike or adidas would design a shoe, put it out for sale to foot locker are we going to come to a place where nike will use you as the retailer and the middleman gets cut out. >> brands have to go omni channel like you said. the distribution channel is being disrupted massively. we do think that brands will come on the platform we did an ipo with adidas that listed the product directly on to stockx. >> ipo, i like it. >> ipo, initial product offering as more and more brands have to

go direct to consumer because of that distribution disruption, the reality is they have to compete with every other tech company that's providing a great experience on a mobile platform and that's very, very difficult to do when tech is not in your core dna so that's a challenge for brands for the consumer the opportunity is to be able to buy something in retail and have the opportunity to resell it potentially and make money on a platform like ours where we provide that opportunity for a seller >> all right good thank you. appreciate it. we've got somewhere to go. more to come from michael. also still to come on "squawk box" today, december is historically a great month for stocks it could be one big risk this year we've got the details right after this. plus, political experts say that young voters could be the key to the 2020 election and this morning we're getting new details on what this generation thinks about the wealth tax. those findings when "squawk box"

comes right back

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we've been watching the futures this morning and right now it looks like we are indicated for a higher open. dow futures up by 71 points. s&p up by close to 8 nasdaq up by about 19. joining us to talk more about the markets on this first trading day of december is joe zidel, he's the chief investment strategist of blackstone thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> markets have been off to the races running up, up, up you are a little concerned that things could be over bought here you're over weight in cash what worries you >> yes, we are sitting out we took our cash allocation up to 10% what we're recognizing is liquidity on one side and fundamentals on the other. we have a 10-year treasury yield starting off at 2.4% it's now down to 1.83 or so. the fed cut three times. these preemptive cuts. they've restarted some form of quantitative easing.

that's on the liquidity side that's good for valuation. the fundamentals haven't kept up we're looking at an environment with slowing global growth, manufacturing recession and near -- >> we're not looking at recession as clearly as it looked like we were a while ago. are you getting a little frustrated as you watch the market continue to run with this >> getting serious i forgot to take these off my wife and kids tell me to take them off before i go on air. sorry, guys. >> where were you? i mean, i've been giving you grief for the entire way up. you were bullish. >> yeah. >> until -- do you remember the date >> yeah. really it was late august, early september. it was as soon as we got the 8 to 10 yield curves. >> at 2800 >> yeah. yeah >> that hurts. >> no, it's a wall of worry. >> when would you say, all right, i missed 15%, i'm not going to miss anymore? do you just go somewhere else and start over or what -- how do you get rid of that?

do you ever capitulate and say, i was wrong? >> well, there's two dynamics, right? there's the interest rates and the fundamentals i think the challenge for me when i look at the valuation in the market, we have fundamentals that haven't kept pace. >> if you continue to be wrong, that's what you've been saying if that continues to be wrong, when do you say, okay, i'm buying at 31.50? >> i think the key for the next six months is whether or not we can get some sort of resolution for trade because that would help instill confidence. >> then you buy at 3200 after being at 2800? >> think about the role of ceo confidence here. think about how that impacts everything from capx to hiring decisions, how it's going to impact sales. >> i was wondering what you were going to do. >> i want to ask about you you mentioned global growth. when i look around the world, global valuations aren't particularly high. your pe is like 13, 12.5, 13 it feels like that's already priced in. there may be further up side in

stock prices all around the world. >> yeah. i mean, i think there could be and it's because, you know, you've got like elections in germany that are ushering the prospects of sort of fiscal policy, some sort of fiscal stimul stimulus, which is a lot of liquidity. global debt has surpassed $250 trillion it's $86 billion per capita. you have a lot of liquidity. germany. you mentioned germany. germany, france, italy, the three big in europe. the three combined 5 billion euros to gdp growth but over 5 billion euros to the market cap in their respective indices. you have all of this liquidity it can probably push them up higher does that mean we're in a good spot fundamentally it's pushing 20 times. if you're trailing cash 20 times earnings, your times forward are below average. >> the ten year rate wasn't at 1.83. >> how much lower is a ten year going to go? i think it's an open question.

we've gotten information from the fed that they're on hold unless they get some other material reassessed for the economy. you have them expanding the balance sheet. how many more tools do they have left to push down the ten year or push down rates in general. we have a secular low in the ten year my guess is the next move is going to be a little bit higher. i think that will challenge efficiency the key to all of this, joe, your point about missing out the last leg of the rally. >> we don't know it might not be the last leg may continue to go i was wondering what -- >> it could. the big x factor is whether or not we can ease these trade tensions what we know is we've done damage to the real economy they haven't hit the financial markets, but when you look underneath the hood, you've got equities that are roaring but if you look at ccc credit which is below investment grade, when you look at ccc credit, very economic

we've seen the spreads between the high yield bonds and treasuries are wider than they were corporate for 2018. >> we'll watch playing this out thank you, joe. coming up, guest host michael reuben on the intersection of sports, retail and gambling -- no, big business "squawk box" will be right back. >> little gambling. >> yeah.

still to come, some new details on taxingwealth and what young voters think about it robert frank joins us with that story. hi, robert >> good morning, becky a majority under 30 say the wealthy didn't earn their wealth and they're a threat to democracy. how they're driving calls to tax the rich and what it could mean aerhereomg and markets cin upft t bak ♪ i can shine, i can shine, ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. we're now 11 months from the 2020 election and as democratic presidential hopefuls keep attacking billionaires and talking about taxing wealth, pollsters are trying to understand younger voters and what they want robert frank joins us now with that story hey, robert. >> good morning, joe the split over taxing wealth is mainly being driven by age younger voters who say billionaires did not he were their wealth and are a threat to democracy. kato poll found that a majority of voters under 20 said the rich made their money by, quote, taking advantage of others rather than earning it younger voters are three times as likely to say it's immoral for society to allow people to become billionaires. more than 1/3 say it's sometimes justified for citizens to take violent action against the rich. younger voters are far more supportive of redistributing

wealth and taxing the wealthy. a majority support the government taking money for the rich for the poor compared with 20% of older voters. more of them support a top tax rate of 70%. the question is whether this is particular to this generation or whether people in their teens or 20s have always opposed large wealth in 1978 a majority of people under 30 also said the income gap between the rich and poor should be reduced by raising taxes on the wealthy the age gap explains why elizabeth warren and bernie sanders are getting a lot of strong support from younger voters while biden and the more moderate candidates are attracting the older voters. there was a poll over the weekend that showed 63% of all voters support a wealth tax. 2% of those over 50 million. that the only subgroup that did not support it are college educated republican men. that was the only demo that doesn't support a wealth tax. >> can you go back to the using

violence against them statistic? what was that? >> 40% say it is sometimes justified to take action against the wealthy by violence. >> how many people were polled in this? >> about -- it was over -- close to 2,000. >> that's nuts. >> statistically significant yeah, it was disturbing. >> yeah, it's disturbing. >> doing good today. >> sneak out the back door, michael. >> looking at you. >> you know what's funny, i'm thinking about this, i was thinking about it last night i actually think the way the country works in a lot of ways is great america's a country where you can come, you can be a entrepreneur, you can create great value. i don't think you ever want to deter that from happening because this is a place where so many great businesses get created and started. what i do think has to happen is there has to be more pressure on entrepreneurs when they create great value to give back i always bank on an entrepreneur to give back and get great results versus giving that same money to the government.

for me, i always just gave money away, i didn't care about anything until what happened to my friend a few years ago. we put $50 million into changing the probation & parole system. with the group that we have and the 50 34$50 million, i think we going to make a lot more progress than the government can make with many more times that money. there is a responsibility to give back in a meaningful way. i'd much rather bet on the entrepreneur who made the money to figure out how to invest and innovate on areas of the country they want to fix versus giving it to the government when it becomes very ineffective. >> let's bring in a couple of other voices former u.s. center is here and maddie duffler how do you navigate your party, the democratic party, when you hear statistics like this? >> i think a couple things, becky. first, what's the old saying if you're not liberal when you're young, you don't have a heart but if you're not more

conservative when you're older, you don't have a head. young people as they have experience being entrepreneurs seeing how they create businesses and opportunities will learn. >> is that the democratic version? a little more conservative if you feel better with that, saying it that way, that's okay. >> a couple of other things. for our country's sake, it's a good thing the united states senate is a little older demographic. the older age is 64. the wealth tax is not going to go anywhere. there are some legitimate things we need to focus on. so many young people come out of school with huge amounts of debt that may color their views about things we need to find a way to make access to higher education more affordable so that's not going on with the huge disparities in wealth, we need to convince young people, i hope so, even in my party, joe, to lift up rather than level down. >> i get confused who your party is you're an indiana democrat you don't recognize this party.

>> i've been accused of being a republicrat. the truth is somewhere in the middle we do need to focus on how to create opportunity in our society and i would encourage young people to look at some western european societies and elsewhere where the youth rate is 20, 30, 35% that's not a place where we want to go. how do we harness markets and entrepreneurs in ways that more people can participate in rather than emphasizing jealousy, envy, taking from people who have been successful >> both parties want exactly what you have just said. the question is does the government take somebody like michael's wealth and redistribute it? i think bill gates, probably the most consequential person in the history of the world with respect to philanthropic monies, if the government had taken that, would it have had the

great impact >> no. >> if the government had taken michael's wealth, would the government have had the social justice impact that michael's been able to have? it's not what the desires are. we all want happiness for the greatest number of people. i'm just curious, do you think the elizabeth warren, bernie sanders way of achieving that is the right way for the country? and will it fly in states bordering indiana? that's what really matters, michigan, ohio -- not ohio, michigan, principally wisconsin, so on. >> you won't be surprised to learn that i'm not in the bernie/elizabeth camp. i'm not for marginal tax rates of 70, 80% i'm not for confiscating people's wealth if they have been successful. there is a legitimate debate about how progressive the tax rate is and how we go about generating the income for opportunity for those who are not as successful as the most successful in our society. how equitably to do that

that's a legitimate debate i'm not for confiscating people's wealth for the wealth tax. i'm not for the so-called death tax but paying more along the way to try to fund good things here's the key where i'm from, joe, out in the hinterland, becky's home state, people are for funding education, they know inherently government is not subject to a market discipline. government tends to be inefficient. it can be wasteful so how do we hold government accountable, that's the key word, accountable towards taking those tax dollars and spending them, investing them in ways that produce results that taxpayers want? that's the key markets tend to have disproportionate outcomes. government tends to be wasteful. how do we find that sweet spot in the middle? >> maddie, you've been waiting patiently. do you want to weigh in? >> i sure do the debate happening around the table is not the debate happening in the democratic primary.

what's happening when you talk about wealth taxes is a conversation about what kind of government we think we should have the fact of the matter is when you come to socialism and capitalism, the kato poll, young people think favorably about socialism the same way they think favorably about capitalism what's not surprising is young people are in favor of taxing people who they don't think are them there's this other effect that we always see in the polls when it comes to taxing people. even bernie sanders, wanted to tax millionaires before he bill a millionaire. now his wealth tax kicks in at 32 million there's a reason for that. it's because there's always support when you think someone else is the one paying the bill. the conversation about entrepreneurship is particularly instructive here americans now, particularly young americans who make up the largest part of the american work force are people who came of age during the great recession and that was an extremely formative experience

that has in some senses set them back. >> so you don't think they grow out of it, in other words? >> well, i do think they grow out of it but i think they have a unique perspective that our political and financial thinking hasn't been accommodative. there are ten years where they think their future financials have been accommodated as a result of that, millennials are a lot more entrepreneurial which means business taxes are going to hit them a lot mover sense more sensitively they'll be exposed to business taxes. when you talk about taxes on wealth, when you talk about taxes on high income earners, people think that's just on the income side of things. when you think about the complexity in business taxes, that's something that young people will be a lot more exposed to a lot earlier than a lot of other generations. >> mattie, good to see you evan, thank you. >> great to be back. it's a discussion we'll continue. >> it is we have a lot to continue with michael reuben, thank you.

our guest host for the hour. >> came in -- did your dad ever have any money >> i came from a very middle class money, $42,000 house. >> where does that come from that billionaires -- i don't understand >> that's just a perception. i've got to tell you, one closing thought. when i think about people starting companies, if you took 3% of their stock as a private company every year, no one's going to start companies here. they're going to go to other countries. that's bad you want innovation happening here >> you, i don't know who you are. i mean, you come in here with -- as a democrat and you just -- you fail miserably. >> i'm a former governor, joe. >> you failed miserably. >> when you're a governor, things have to work. >> joe's the guy gambling. >> he has the last word. 6 seconds left. >> michael rubin, coming up. thanks, robert. wall street ready to kick off the final trading month. big stocks to watch next

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get ready to spend shoppers head online for cyber monday with billions of dollars on the line after a record black friday boeing's big december. it's a crucial month for the plane maker as it tries to get the 737 max ready to fly before 2020 begins. >> and can a billionaire really

win the democratic nomination for president? michael bloomberg's senior campaign advisor will tell us why he thinks the answer is yes as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. you see what's going on? >> i know. >> the snow is back. tom farley, ceo of far point and cnbc contributor it was raining now i see some -- looks like a wintry mix. >> it looks slippery. >> getting colder. that's the plan. >> wintry mix. it kind of feels holiday like.

>> you don't have to rely on a plane, a train, a bus. >> stay back in front of the fire. >> u.s. equity futures this hour, we were up triple digits we are up 60 and change on the dow. s&p up 8 or so nasdaq up 17 treasury yields, i saw 184, 185, somewhere around there on the 10 year, 183 now. >> here are some of the stories that investors will be talking about today. it is cyber monday adobe forecasts that today is going to be the biggest ever for ecommerce with $9.4 billion spent estimated. if that's the case, that's up 19% from cyber monday last year. the spending spree comes after a lucrative black friday for the retailers. although foot traffic appeared to be lighter at malls across the country. adobe says online spending on friday hit a record $5.4 billion and that's up 22% from a year ago. heavy snows in the united states have canceled more than 1,000 flights since yesterday

and delayed thousands more so far today more than 450 flights have already been delayed and more than 180 canceled boston's metro area is expected to get a foot of snow by the end of the morning and disney's "frozen 2" set a thanksgiving holiday record by taking in $124 million in north american ticket sales. that broke the previous record set back in 2013 by ""the hunger games" catching fire." take a look at shares of disney have been up, up, up not because of blockbusters but because of the disney plus success. >> it is the start of a big month for boeing, which is obviously a very important dow component. our largest manufacturer the plane maker still thinks it can get the grounded 737 max certified to fly before the end of 2019 and maybe even deliver some of the planes to its customers this week. pilots are heading into the 737 max simulators the company want to know how

they're handling the redesigned mcas software. joining us -- what did we decide, ep stein. >> steen, right? >> what do you say there's two different parts of your family. what do you say? >> i guess i say steen. >> research analyst at bank of america merrill lynch. is this -- can we start -- it's december 2nd can we look at the chronology of how it's going to happen with 90% certainty or is there still a lot up in the air, so to speak? >> there's still some stuff up in the air boeing put out a press release i guess it was about a month ago there was five steps that they had to go through. they had completed one of those steps. probably the biggest step that they have to go through, the biggest hurdle, if you will, is a joint operational evaluation board. they're going to review the pilot training and the pilot training -- they'll review it. it involves international

regulators so to some extent you're herding kittens they'll come up with a report and it has a public review period it looks like getting all of this done before the end of the year is a really, really, really long play. >> there have been some data points on orders that is gratifying on people who like the positive story on boeing is that where you are? the air show, the orders airbus has made some strides as well, but boeing didn't fall off the earth. >> yeah. i wouldn't expect them to. there's really only two producers of large commercial jets in the world, boeing and airbus >> right >> not everybody is buy everything from airbus i think we have to see as, you know, consumers start to fly again, their preference for plane. my guess is ultimately this too shall pass but it's an open question, right? boeing is hosting a meeting out in seattle with social media influencers, there's some

bloggers, other folks i think trying to gain support for the aircraft it's an open important question. >> no name change, right >> no name change as of yet, right? >> how many flights total in the u.s. did the max have before all of the problems? it has flown thousands and thousands of flights, right? >> yeah. yeah yeah, for sure. >> without incident. >> in the -- in the north american there's 60 planes. >> do you think people eventually walk right on and don't even ask what kind of plane it is? we're not here yet. >> if you look at what's in cases that have happened in the past, that's typically what happens. >> i had that same question. ralph nader came on this network. he has a personal and tragic connection he came on the show with us, he effectively said, i'm paraphrasing, this plane was not built to fly safely. >> yeah. >> it's not a software issue, it's actually a structural problem. so, number one, could that be the case number two, if it's not the

case, doesn't that sort of verbiage scare potential flyers for quite a while? >> so two things to discuss here in the first case, from everything we know -- actually know, the 737 is -- the design of the airplane, it's a low wing airplane with low hung engines, very stable design it's an airplane, however, that a flawed system was put into on that piece, he's right. once you fix that, it's okay the second piece, this is a world of social media. this is the longest grounding. we really don't have a precedent for how the flying public is going to react to the plane. >> nader thinks the flawed system went in because they moved the engines for more fuel efficiency and disrupted the stability of the structure of the plane, not just -- in his view, not just a failed system

you don't buy that >> i've got a ph.d. in aerospace. i used to design wings for a living and what they did do is by moving the engines, the airplane doesn't feel like a 737 mg, it feels like a different plane. they put the system in to make it feel -- >> we shouldn't think there's an inherent instability in the new structure. >> that would make no sense, right? but does it make sense that it would feel like a different plane? of course. this becomes an important financial point. part of the selling point of the airplane was no training if you're southwest airlines, this has to feel like a previous generation so a pilot can walk up and fly either plane. if this didn't have this system, that wouldn't be the case, right? so that's -- that's the key thing. and there was -- you know, to be clear, there were mistakes made on this system. >> there's been a chorus of voices, minority of voices saying they need to do away with the mcas system entirely, start from scratch

i have some experience, i had a terrible outage at the new york stock exchange we found trying to fix the problem was harder than just ripping it out and starting certain parts from scratch should they be doing that? >> the canadian regulatory authority said get rid of the mcas thing and recertify the plane as a different thing from my point of view, that could be a valid point of view a little more training and more complicated. >> six months, eight months, nine months of the year? >> that could be another path to go down. absolutely there's a view that the airplane somehow is very fundamental and flawed, that doesn't make sense. >> are we going to watch globally how this is reintroduced what's most important? >> yeah, right it's a global action, right? the faa, you have europe, the chinese authority, canadian authority. everybody has their own authority. our expectation is that the airplane will go backinto

service in march in the u.s. first and then the europeans and then the chinese will probably follow that. >> probably, assuming there's a trade deal, right? >> probably? right. however, i would add, you know, this kind of slipped under the market, the chinese approved boeing's deal to buy ember air and china approved that, right so i don't know how much of a quid pro quo was really going on on that front, but -- so what i guess i'm trying to say, you could get approval by the chinese authority. that doesn't necessarily mean they'll buy more planes. a deal to buy planes would be tied to a trade deal safety may or may not be. >> ron, thank you. ph.d. in aerospace engineering >> and he worked at boeing as an aerospace engineer so -- >> engineering >> engineering >> thank you >> thanks.

>> hard work >> when we come back, we'll take an inside look at the ameritrade deal from one of the most knowledgeable voices on wall street. plus, up ending the ipo process. can the evolution of the direct listing and the departments we could see next year. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box"ig he cc. rhteronnb when it comes to your customers' expectations,

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welcome back to "squawk box. check out the futures up 64 points now on the dow. the nasdaq indicated up 16 s&p up 7 and change. last week we got the official news that charles schwab is buying rival t.d. ameritrade in a $26 billion deal it's a move with far reaching implications for the brokerage industry joining us is rich ripetta this was not the deal most people were expecting as you pointed out but it will massively change the industry. what do you think? >> yeah, it creates tremendous scale. they're going to have 5 trillion

in assets. the advisor space will have 15,000 advisers and in a space where commissions have gone to zero, i mean, you really need that scale and consolidation where you get the maximum scale, maximum efficiency. >> this industry is undergoing so much change and turmoil because of going to zero commissions but do you think there will be regulatory concerns on this because of the ria, investment advisers. >> that's been discussed, a lot discussed. just as exchanges consolidated years back, it really depends on how you define the market. if you look at the rias of the ebrokerage, yeah, schwab is going to be half of that if you look at rias of banks, insurance companies, the other independents, really about 10% so, again, it's what the regulators and anti-trust officials look at for the

market schwab, when you look at advisers overall, any of these advisers could come and talk to you, again, they're 10% of that market. >> what are you hearing from that ria channel, the ebrokerage ria channel. are they running to washington saying, you need to dq this deal >> they obviously are concerned but they've been through, you know, deals before schwab's doing a lot of talking to them, so is ameritrade. they have good relationships with the existing advisers so that's something that, you know, you want to -- just like you win over clients, you want to win over the rias that you have, make sure they're on board as well. >> what do you think the next step is? how will this industry move from here because of this >> well, there's still one player still out there, etrade etrade, you know, they didn't get involved in this deal. it's interesting that they were not involved but there's still value. they have a bank they have deposits they are able to raise deposits.

there's a lot of companies out there, a lot of big banks looking for deposits they have a corporate stock plan business etrade, still in my opinion a valuable asset but they have been -- you know, they're going to lack scale compared to schwab and ameritrade. >> is there potential for unconventional tie ups, like a coin base in an etrade or sofi and etrade as opposed to one of the banks you just said. >> i would say anything is possible as becky said zero commissions opened up the door schwab you wouldn't have thought of that. t.d. bank wasn't looked at one as one that would favor that transaction. they did so i think there's going to be a lot of out of the box thinking they have -- etrade has clients. they have 600 billion in assets so it's really how you monetize the assets now they're not going to be as big as schwab and ameritrade which have 5 trillion, but they

still are -- have a good platform and, again, have a bank in the corporate stock land. >> what do schwab and t.d. ameritrade have to do to make this a successful merger between the two? what has to happen next? >> we already talked about they have to win over the rias, make sure they're satisfied that's a key -- that's a growing part of the business that's how you bring in new assets is into the rias. the next is really the cost savings. just like an exchange -- >> a lot of fixed costs. >> a lot of fixed costs. in fact, 60 to 65% of ameritrade's costs are expected to come out of the transaction how you -- >> well, that is a -- >> that's a lot. >> that is a huge number how many employees do they have? >> combined there's probably around 30,000 employees. that's combined companies. but, you know, when you look at deals in this space, this is what makes them so compelling is that when you bring the

platforms together, an ameritrade platform and a schwab platform, a year later they slowly will make the websites look the same so when they do kill one platform there isn't a whole lot of disruption on the clients. >> do you think that can happen in a year? only because both of them are pretty successful platforms in their own right. >> so a year has been the typical time they've forecasted or guided to a longer term. this is a little bit different than the exchange consolidation. it took a while but you got them on one platform. now you're dealing with retail clients. a lot of the customer facing things that i think that you guys did at i.c.e. were hitten behind the scenes. here it's very visible here you have a customer going on, he's used to -- >> better not change it or you're going to tick him off. >> right >> rich, you know the exchanges very well. direct listings is something i was involved with at the new york stock exchange. it seems to have momentum.

what is your experience with direct listings and raising capital through direct listing and disrupting the traditional ipo model? >> yeah, i do. i think with everything going on in the space, the debate between companies staying private longer, private equity actually contracting here, i think, again, they're going to look at other ways to raise money, whatever is easiest, whatever facilitates, you know, their goals and their objectives i know you were very good at doing that and look at the particular company, meaning what was best suited for them i think that's the model that's going to go -- you know, will win outgoing forward. >> rich, thanks for coming in today. >> good to be here. >> good to see you here. >> what's your prediction on army/navy. >> i have to say go army we haven't had a great year. it's a big game. we still get up for that game. it's the biggest of the year for us. >> what's the spread >> i think navy will be favored because we haven't had the year we had last year >> okay. i'll look at that.

a couple weeks >> yeah. december 14th. >> maybe began -- ohio state is good. >> duh. >> michigan was doing much better see what happened with -- >> that defensive end, dematha kid, chase young. >> the heisman guy. >> that guy is amazing. >> i know. i know i know that was a mistake coming up, mark zuckerberg doubles down on his company's controversial position on political ads. we'll bring you new comments from the facebook ceo. and can a billionaire really win the democratic nomination? michael bloomberg, his senior campaign advisor, tim o'brien, will lay out his candidate's case in a few minutes. stay ted, u' wchg unyoreatin "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box. dow futures indicated up 48 points nasdaq up 9 points and s&p up 5.5. last week you saw a down day on friday but still for the month of november it was the best we've seen for stock markets since june and when we return it was a big weekend for the box office, but how much did netflix rain on hollywood's parade next, michael bloomberg

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welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. here are some stories investors will be talking about. general electric has a date with investors. ge's health care unit will be holding an investor day to highlight one of the best performing divisions last year the unit accounted for 16% of overall revenue but it made up 36% of operating profit for ge. u.s. manufacturing sector will be getting some attention today. they will release the manufacturing index for november it's expected to rise from 49.4 from 48.3. that would still be below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. the u.s. is seeking the

extradition of michael lynch he faces securities fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy in connection with the sale of autonomy to hewlett-packard for $1.2 billion in 2011 a year later they took an $8.8 billion writedown. lynch denies that saying hp mismanaged the company after acquiring it. mark zuckerberg is standing by his decision not to take down political ads that include false information. >> what i believe is that in a democracy it's really important that people can see for themselves what politicians are saying so they can make their own judgments and, you know, i don't think that a private company should be censoring politicians or news. >> a small group of facebook employees have written a letter calling on the company to reconsider and take down political ads that are in questi question i've watched them. i'm behind him i'm not always behind zuckerberg

but i am in that case. stay strong. former new york city mayor michael bloomberg's campaign is starting to heat up. he's pouring millions of dollars into tv ads. bloomberg is a billionaire, one of the country's richest, one of the world's richest. they're running on a tax the rich platform. joining us to see what this could mean is tim o'brien, bloomberg 2020 campaign senior advisor. it's good to have you in, tim. >> thank you, joe. >> i've got to just tell you, i feel your pain i know that's not probably where you want to start, but i'm trying to figure out a path. i almost think the mayor would be better served to run as a republican that's where he's getting some of the support the geographic center of the democratic party is where the nastiest comments and the nastiest reception for the mayor's candidacy have come from and when he does have people that sort of, you know, see him as a viable candidate, it's from people that lean further right

than left. >> i'm not in pain, i'm excited. i think we're just getting started. the mayor is coming out of the gate with the national campaign. i think the party right now is very divided i think mike bloomberg's in this campaign because he's the most viable candidate to beat donald trump. i think there's a broad swath of democratic voters who are right in the middle of the country, both politically and geographically who want to get behind someone like that there's a lot of voters who want an adult with his hands on the steering wheel they feel the country's national security is threatened they feel the long-term economic security is threatened and they want someone in there with a proven track record. >> he's almost a man without a country. on the left he's got the stop and frisk, he's got the billionaire, he's got the coming in and buying influence which is what they're running against on the right he's got the nanny state, big gulp, climate change,

gun control hangover issues. he's got this -- if you draw it altogether, it's about this big, the two circles of people that could really end up supporting him. you look at the predict it sites, bet it sites, he's tied with andrew yang. >> it's early days very early days. he has a great story to tell people we're going to roll that story out. he's not any one of the things you've said. he's a problem solver, a jobs creator. he agrees in progressive policies and he puts practices behind be them he understands the business community. he respects the business community. >> you will know on super tuesday. >> pardon me >> you will know on super tuesday. >> he's such a good guy. >> he's a great guy. >> i see him on the golf course. he's well-intentioned. i just -- >> you played golf with trump, didn't you >> i played golf with trump. i played with mike bloomberg down in florida as well.

i play both sides, yeah, but i just -- since i like him i just -- i don't know, i think it's a fool's errand i think it's going to ends badly. >> i come at it a slightly different way but similar question than joe. he was a great mayor, better business person arguably as a president, i don't understand who his base is you mentioned the business community. the community that i've heard most sympathetic with him is kind of the investors wall street community, but what's his larger base? >> his larger base are moderate centerist democrats and independents who care about having quality leadership and quality leadership that knows how to steer the country along in the long run. it isn't just the business community. i think there's a lot of voters out there who are hungry for the solutions mike bloomberg can provide. they're sick of three years of donald trump that has worn the country down this is about competence versus chaos, common sense versus

nonsense and si sill lit at this versus hostility. >> tough to run against new highs, tough to run against low unemployment. >> the stock market is a short-term indicator >> not just a short-term -- >> where are we with regulation? >> pardon me >> one of the reasons you put behind trump is you love how he's deregulating the economy. what percentage of federal regulations has trump knocked off the books. >> do you have an answer >> yeah, it is, it's less than 1% >> if you're not growing it you're -- >> what's happening to the manufacturing sector, joe, are they well right now? in swing states specifically >> the manufacturing sector obviously we heard it was -- you remember when obama said about it you can't wave a wand and it will come back we've been making some strads but we're in a trade war at this point. >> a trade war of the president's creation a trade war with china that's basically devoured the tax cut that trump engineered. how is that trade war -- >> is the mayor against the

trade war that we're having? >> of course he is mike bloomberg believes in free trade. he's a long time -- >> how would he have dealt with the -- >> how would he have dealt with what >> certain of the so called seven deadly sins, i.p. -- forced technology transfer. >> you've heard what he said he's on the record talking about that. >> i.p., that is the real issue. that's an issue people have to come down on china on. this whole menu of other garbage that president trump has put on the table to the detriment of the business community, to the detriment of american farmers, to the detriment of manufacturers is what put people against him on this issue. mike bloomberg had -- >> i don't think it's trump you have to worry about. >> pardon me >> i don't think it's trump you have to worry about. you have to get through the democratic primary. >> i think that's true there's a hurdle i think there's a story that we can tell that will matter. there's no other democrats in swing states right nay

i'm going to be in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, arizona we're going to bring this argument to trump's doorstep i think a lot of voters in those states are looking for someone like mike bloomberg. >> who's your biggest competition, joe biden >> i think the biggest competition for mike bloomberg is donald trump. he sees it coming out of the gates treating it as a national election it's a big super tuesday play. he respects the other democrats but he differs from them significantly. >> his quote on china was that president xi is not a dictator he has to satisfy -- you don't think he'd be soft on hina you don't think we needed to confront china at this point >> we did not need to confront china the way that donald trump confronted it, joe you should know better donald trump has confronted china in the wrong way. >> how is that >> he's cozied up to other dictators. >> how should he have done china? >> you're not going to find michael bloomberg standing next

to vladimir putin. >> how do you think we should have taken on china? >> i think we should have narrowly focused on intellectual property i think that's somewhere it should go in the future. mike bloomberg will lead us there. >> since the w.t.o. we've made very little -- we have a lot of people who say we should not have done tariffs but they usually don't have a very good alternative. >> what have we got from this? other than we've hurt our own economy. >> where do you see the -- okay. since the tariffs are on trump pointed out today we're up 21% since the tariffs were put on, 3.5% unemployment. >> what's happening in the real econo economy? >> what's that, the billionaire key con my >> no. no. >> wages are growing much faster than they did. >> job groet has started to decelerate because of the things you're pointing to. >> job growth is decelerating?

>> yeah. >> it's hard to grow at 3.5% unemployment, hard to find the workers. that's why wages are starting to go up. >> he was going to create gdp -- >> 2.9 last year. >> we're at 2% now we're nowhere close to the 5% that trump and his cheerleaders -- >> we're 40% above where we grew for obama. >> that's not true right now where trump is net net the economy is almost exactly the same rate as obama. >> no, not -- number one, obama had eight years. we're at 2.5 business. >> a pro business anchor and yet you're arguing against pro business policies. >> i'm a pro business anchor looking at the environment that we have right now. we were just talking about it's almost a goldilocks environment. for you to run against the economy is going to be another fool's errand just like mike's candidacy. >> i think manufacturing workers are going to disagree with you. >> manufacturing has been a problem for a long time. >> the standard of living aren't

going to agree with you. i think the bubble is here, not out there in middle america. >> there's also -- there's the matter of $100 billion -- a massive, massive company that mike owns. >> yes. >> 100% of in a mike bloomberg let's say democratic nomination scenario, what happens to that >> he'd have to -- i think one of the central conflicts of the trump administration has been this issue around financial conflicts of interest and a failure to establish a real buffer between the oval office and private holdings i think vote squaers should know that the president has policy that's coop flikted. that's foremost in mike bloomberg's mind. >> at one point mayor bloomberg said he considered running and was not going to do it what changed his mind? looking at the candidates who were running >> yeah. i think that was exactly the dynamic. goen, he really admires a lot of those folks. he sees them as good public

servants i think he lost faith in that pretty recently. this happened pretty quickly he sees donald trump as the biggest existential threat to the country in his tliemp and he didn't want to sit by and watch democrats miss an opportunity to challenge him effectively. >> i've heard some people speculate that by the time the democratic -- >> i think there could be a brokered convention. you're seeing right now. looks like buttigieg is ahead in iowa elizabeth warren. >> new hampshire. >> biden could get south carolina, bernie sanders could get nevada and then you have to move into super tuesday. i do think that's an opportunity for mike bloomberg to tell his story. >> tough for a new york mayor. tough to get the -- you know, the traction nationwide. we know him. we saw what happened -- >> they said that about trump too.

>> i'm talking about giuliani more than -- remember giuliani was going to -- he skipped that -- >> he started out in florida i think the difference here is that rudy giuliani didn't have a track record as a manager of a -- >> i would just feel that. he's the 11th richest man in the world. democrats don't want him amy klobuchar said we have 17 people none of us are any good. you don't come around until now and you decide none of us are worthy of the nomination it seems presumptuous and pretentious for a billionaire to come in and say i've got the right way to do this sings all of you are clowns. >> your presumption and pretension is my patriotism. he's doing it because he cares for the country. >> none of the other 17 are good candidates >> he respects those folks he just doesn't think they have the right answers. if the entire party was so far to the left as you're saying, then that doesn't explain the

rise of people like pete buttigieg and the popularity of joe biden. mike bloomberg is someone with deep experience and he can deliver solutions to voters. >> okay. >> come join us on the campaign trail. >> if he gets above even 10 cents on just the nomination, then i will. >> let's make a bet. let's make a bet. >> you can make a bet on predict it -- >> what are we going to bet on >> a year from now -- >> i'll bet you he's not the nominee, how about that. >> let's bet 100 bucks. >> 100 bucks i promise i'll pay. >> you do? >> you can each give me 100 bucks, i'll hold it. >> you want to bet >> no, no, i'll hold your money. >> you want some of this >> you made the most important point. it will be hard to run against trump. he has to. >> will you take all bets? >> well, i don't know two $100 bets is stretching it. >> you're worried about it >> tim, thank you for coming in. >> thanks, becky. when we come back, what to

watch on wall street in the final month of 2019. take a look at the futures as we get set up for the first trading day of december. we've whittled away some of the gains. now the future is indicated up 37 s&p up by 3.5 and nasdaq up by 3.5 as well. "squawk box" will be coming back and we'll be talking market strategy don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. you'll get interviews, original content, and behind the scenes access look for us on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to squawk pod today.

big holiday weekend for the box office but also for netflix. julia boorstin joins us to find out how much the streaming giant may have chipped away at theater ticket sales 3.5 hours of "the irishman." i saw it, i liked it. >> did you watch it -- >> you saw it at homes, not in theaters >> i saw it in a theater. >> interesting >> yes. >> well, it's now available on streaming and the question is what kind of impact that may have had just to take a step back, joe, thanksgiving was a mixed bag for hollywood. the good news is that "frozen 2" grossed $124 million in america over the five-day weekend for a worldwide total of $740 million. that, of course, shows that disney plus is not eating into disney's box office power.

"knives out" grossed $70 million worldwide is proof that audiences will turn out en masse for a grownup movie not tied to a franchise. along with "queen and slim" as well as "ford versus ferrari." thanksgiving day weekend cut it from negative 7% to down 5.6%, but the bad news is that the thanksgiving weekend box office was still down 16% from last year's holiday weekend and that could be partly attributed to netflix starting to stream "the irishman" on wednesday as well as more and more theatrical releases starting streaming. "marriage story" will come to netflix in december and amazon is already streaming the report, which was recently in theaters all of that, of course, raises the bar for the non-franchise

films that are going to be in theaters this holiday weekend -- this holiday season. >> what else what's the expectations for the rest of that "star wars" coming out >> "star wars" is coming out on the 20th and this is one of those films that is a huge franchise. there's a built-in audience. it will have a certain level of success sort of regardless of what the reviews are, but i think that is an example of the kind of film that will not be touched by the streamers because there is such anticipation and it's an event film people want to leave the house for the question is when you have these films like "the report" on amazon or "marriage story on on on netflix, when those are available at home, how much will that raise the bar for the other oscar-type movies. there is a lot of anticipation for a movie called "1917." so i think we'll try to see what happens with the reviews before we make any predictions for the

rest of the box office having such a strong thanksgiving certainly does set up december for better numbers. >> julia, thank you. good to see you. joining us right now for a closer look at netflix and its big weekend with "the irishman" is michael olson, piper jaffray's senior analyst what do you think, mike. was the reason you saw lower box office was because of what happened with "the eye rashman"? >> could have played a part. that's been no secret. netflix and disney plus are a great piece of that. it's getting great reviews it could be a part. >> you did your own survey where you talked to 1700 netflix customers to see how interested they were in disney plus what did you find? >> yeah. so we've -- we've really surv surveyed thousands of netflix subscribers over the last year and we've been asking about disney plus. they're both good services so we're going to see a lot of

people subscribing to both of them that's what we found in our survey, 1/3 of netflix subscribers say they do want to subscribe or are subscribing to disney plus. interestingly, only a very tiny percentage of those said they would be potentially canceling netflix as a result of seeing , there is an instance where people want to subscribe to both. >> which means what in terms of what you're telling people to do with the stocks, disney or netflix? >> yeah, i don't cover disney, but netflix we continue to like netflix here, we expect it will perform well not only based on just the content dollars shifting from offline to online but international as well as potential for long-term price increases, not necessarily in the next year will we see a significant price increase, we have seen price increases more recently but over the next two to three years we expect to see pricing continue to go higher for netflix. >> michael, you know, netflix has great distribution and pretty good content. disney has amazing content and

nascent distribution but they have proven in the last two weeks that they figured out a pretty good model here and it feels to me like content is king again. but yet netflix trades at 60 pe, and disney is like 25 to 30 pe are those going to converge? >> it could be the case. over time the opportunity for netflix isso huge internationally that that's really what is resulting in that multiple is people are looking out and saying they could have two, three, four times as many subscribers internationally as what they do today that's the reason for that multiple eventually we could see the multiples converge to some degree, but that's the answer to that question. >> mike, thanks for your time. good to see you. >> thank you >> under an hour now until the opening bell on wall street. for a look at the markets, let's bring in paul zemsky feeling good feeling good you did take some money and go into europe and emerging markets, but you still are bullish.

>> bullish overall mostly in u.s., now starting to move some into the european area and also a little into emerging markets, basically to get more exposure cyclicals the economy is bottoming we see green chutes in europe, green chutes in the end. you want to be more in cyclical stocks and the mix of europe, it is better cyclical plays and we want to be part of that. >> stocks not overvalued, not expensive. strong in a year end, but in the second quarter of next year, you start worrying about the election >> yeah, i think -- >> uncertainty or elizabeth warren or what >> both. so uncertainty we know from the tariffs and other things in the market, businesses want to be able to plan, want to be able to know what the rules they're playing by are and as the rules change, people pull back businesses and consumers so, you know, the economy is very strong. i think that's what drives people to re-elect the president. >> she's down 50%. have you looked at her number?

>> yeah, she peaked early. >> and biden and buttigieg >> europe is at a massive discount are you expecting to see earnings growth, multiple rewrite, both? >> europe has more banks look at germany's yield curve today. the ten year germany note up 5, 6, 7 basis points today. europe was pricing negative rates forever and while we may have zero-ish negative rates, like the idea of the reversion of the yield curve, yield curve getting steeper, rates getting higher and germany is -- europe is much more industrial-based and as we see the world's industrial activity bottoming, europe -- >> as we approach the end of the decade here, ten years of muddling through in europe could be over. >> right now, more of a tactical, we'll see if it warrants a strategic position. more of a three-month, six-month play. >> we have gotten this far without europe and so you figure -- i'm talking

about the underlying economy here in this country, if there is green chutes in europe, then we do well here and the unemployment rate stays lower, gets even lower, that brings the fed back in. >> second half problem of next year we're on course with over 200,000 jobs expected this month, three-month average, 160. that will keep putting downward pressure on employment rate. we could be in a situation come midsummer, we're looking at 3.3, 3.2 unemployment rate and you got to think about what the fed is going to do. >> you don't see job growth decelerating at this point >> it did. >> it is hard to get people, right? >> it is hard to get -- you talk to businesses, they say, can't find anyone to price they want to pay there is still people on the sidelines who could come in. >> all right thanks, paul >> thank you. >> let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer is standing by and, jim, i missed you last week. i had a burning question i've been waiting to ask you ever

since. what the heck is an ice box cake >> an ice box cake is something that has got a lot of topping on it, that is just sweet. >> it looks delicious. i saw you tweeting about it. >> we did a lot of baking. we actually -- i would say we split it among a bunch of families and it has been that way for a long time. and it certainly makes it so that the work is diversified i didn't do the turkey because a couple years ago i fried the turkey and to a crisp, and nobody lets me near it anymore. >> you get the ice box cake. we're back to work back to watching the markets and seeing what happens. first trading day of december today, what do you think happens given the big run we have seen with stocks to this point. >> look, i don't like the fact that people are short the vix, people feel that confident i also don't like the fact that we're going into a period where suddenly the chinese are playing hard ball again.

i was listening to joe talk, so many people come on and say this isn't the way to approach the chinese. they never have a way to stop the chinese. listen, maybe we need -- we need europe involved. europe is selling too many cars to china maybe we need to talk tough. if someone else had a solution, then i think we listen to the solution the way it is now, i think that december 15 could come and we could raise things if the chinese don't play ball. i don't understand why people -- >> jim, there was some cynicism from people, i guess they sell bloomberg terminals in china too, that was the comment about how xi is not a dictator i wouldn't expect bloomberg to be -- >> not a dictator. >> not a dictator. >> you're allowed to kill people and put people in concentration camps without calling them a dictator what makes people a dictator how about concentration camps, murdering their own people maybe that makes them a -- in

disguise maybe we're too critical. >> we all have a vested interest in china if you -- thank you. we'll be tuned in right at 9:00 for "squawk on the street. is this you? >> no. >> "squawk box" will be right back at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free. and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk.

♪ talk, talk

thanks to our guest host tom farley we'll see you tomorrow becky will be here if we get out of this place and back in. >> behind you there. >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is coming up right now ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer and we're live from the new york stock exchange carl has this morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we get started with trading a half hour from now last month of trading for the year, of course. our first day of trading in the month of december. that gets us to our road map this morning and to what else, that record rally, stocks do look to start december on an upswing. this after big gains in november plus, make or break season for retailers,