>> etf up 19%. that's since august, more room to run >> i bought some roku during the break. >> you did >> support >> that does it for us "the exchange" begins now. scott, thank you very much and welcome, everybody, to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathison and here is what's ahead for a monday. trade is back in the spotlight in a big way the president has put tariffs on two new countries today alone and the commerce secretary ross says tariffs will go up if there's no china deal. from commodities to stocks to bonds, almost every investment is working in 2019 can that momentum continue for the rest of the year and the deals are hot in december retail stocks may not be we'll tell that you story. we begin with today's markets and dom chu has the red numbers.

a lot of the parts of the market working as of late are not working today. maybe not unexpected given the fact the entire market is selling off. at the highs of the day we were positive up 58 points. at the lows we were down 254 as you can see right here we're hovering just around the lows of the session, the southwest 500, off 26 points. 1.2% as well you mentioned that ism manufacturing number, those numbers came in worse than expected a large gap lower here and some shares including railroad operators like csx, engine manufacturers and those stocks among the hardest hit. payment services like visa,

mastercard has been a hot part of the market as of late today they are now off visa up 1.75%. square off 3%. and paypal off 2%. a little bit of that sheen coming off as we head into the cyber monday holiday of course, tyler, it's expected to be a record spend this time around we'll see if that's selling the new situation with payment services hawks continue. i'll send things back over to you. >> president trump playing the game of tariffs before heading to the uk for the nato summit in a series of tweets the president saying he's restoring tariffs on steel and aluminum from brazil and argentina. he also defended tariffs on china saying u.s. markets are up as much as 21% since he implemented them this morning china demanded a roll back of tariffs before signing any trade deal finally trump called out house speaker nancy pelosi for not voting a voting or bringing to the house

a vote saying it is sitting on her desk collecting dust for more on trade we are joined by fred kemp, the ceo of the atlanta council. and behind alm of this trade talk, michelle, the president is in europe for the nato meetings. how are they expected to go? what's on the agenda and the agenda that we all know about and the agenda that takes place behind the scenes. >> there's the official agenda about increasing troop readiness, et cetera the behind-the-scenes agenda there's a big fight between the president of france and the rest of nato because he says that nato is suffering brain death. he blames president trump for that macron claims he wants to have a european army which is pretty laughable because they can't even manage to spend enough to cover their nato basics. >> why does he say the president is stifling nato >> macron felt like they should have been included in that, they

have troops on the ground in syria. that's something that's really bothered him and a historic relationship between france and syria. >> fred, before we move on to trade which is right in our wheelhouse in a way nato is not, the president has long pressed nato as michelle intimated, to spend more of their gdp, 2% of gdp on defense very few -- i can't count them -- very few of those countries have gotten to that level. the directional movement is positive, isn't it >> it is positive. since 2016 you've had $130 billion more spent by allies on defense in nato. president trump could take a victory lap this week if he wants to and the tone is relatively positive. he says you're having impeachment hearings democrats are having impeachment

hearings in washington while i'm representing our country to strengthen nato. he could change the tone, all roads lead to beijing. we'll cover that when we get to trade. on this issue he's going to come to allies and say, look, i need more help with you on 5g you can't let china build out your telecommunications system he doesn't have a great alternative to offer them. so china tends to divide while the soviet union in the old days tended to unite the alliance >> the president made a point about nato countries not fulfilling their obligation and it seems like his point has in part, at least, been heard let's shift to trade, to these new tariffs on argentina and brazil on steel and there is a china connection >> for sure. the new president was so

solicitous to trump. why is it happening now? on the campaign trail the president of brazil was critical of china they've signed a bunch of deals and he's become more solicitous to china china has long imposed now tariffs on our soy beans plus the currency is weaker he doesn't want to hurt their farmers. >> you agree with what michelle said that even in the question of brazil china looms large. >> what's interesting as well this is the first time president trump has linked currency policy to tariffs so he's saying that argentina and brazil and, by the way, the two largest in latin america are

the ones he's targeting, have been manipulating their currency, depreciating their currency and, therefore, they're setting their prices lower and that's harming american farmers. on top of that brazil in the first ten months of the year sold $25 billion worth and that's ten times >> hasn't he made the same currency point with respect to china, that they have artificially depressed their currency so that their exports are cheaper? >> he may have done so >> i've never heard him use a currency argument. michelle is right as well. argentina will sell more soy meal as well

he may be responding to these two countries growing closer to china but by imposing the tariffs could drive them even closer >> final thought, michelle >> argentina has a new president-elect coming in so he probably doesn't care anymore. their currency got pummeled not because of anything they did -- >> well, mismanagement >> but they didn't want their currency to weaken as dramatically as it did brazil you could argue >> usmca, the person is not wrong. this bill has been sitting there a long time. >> they've been concerned about the enforcement if they have complaints about what's happening, how do you get them fixed? they claim they're close >> fred kempe, always great to see you. thank you very much. the clock is ticking for boeing as the company looks to

certify the 737 max. phil lebeau live with how realistic that may be. >> reporter: increasingly day by day they have so many things they need to accomplish. this is a big one for boeing they have a couple things going on line pilots are brought in to max simulators, run through a number of scenarios. there's also briefings that are beginning as boeing is trying to get aviation industry influencers an inside look at what's happening this is all part of them with a charm offensive trying to get ready for the max comes back to have people say, look, it's fixed and ready. it works it'll be fine. look separate from this. the rest of the month, look what they need to do. certification flight is likely mid-december then you have pilot training rules which may not happen until the end of the month if not

early in january and then there's a 15-day comment period after those rules are first published. guys, you're looking at something where you're not seeing a certification until some time in january, maybe mid-january, late january, somewhere around there and up might be saying, well, why isn't the stock moving back more they're not going to hit the target boeing put out there. it's all about the max production scheduled for next year the company is going to be ramping up starting in the spring then going through the end of the year. if that changes, tyler, that is when you would see the stock come under really significant pressure because until that happens, most analysts are saying december or january doesn't really matter to us. what really matters is the production schedule. >> and what about other countries beyond the united states and their recertification process? they've often sort of followed suit -- >> sure. >> like ducks on a stream behind the u.s. this time that doesn't sound likely >> well, you'll likely have the canadians come quickly after the

faa. maybe not within a couple of days but it won't take long. the big question mark is how much longer it will take the chinese to sign off on the changes with the max now the chinese airlines, tyler, they need this in service. they need to plane back in service. at the same time we talk about all the geopolitical stuff going on don't think that isn't a part of the equation with the chinese as well, that they might be sitting there saying, oh, really your biggest exporter? it would be a shame if they couldn't get this signed off on right away don't be surprised if the chinese take longer. >> sounds like you may be saying that boeing to the chinese may be what huwei is a chip at least. >> you can't underestimate that. >> here is what else is ahead on "the exchange. coming up, the orders are in and the packages are flowing but can the shippers keep up with demand as more and more shoppers hit the web and not the mall

plus, consumers may be cozying up to retailers. in the month of december, investors don't. we have the numbers. and a big month, a big year and big blockbusters disney has been on a tear. can they continue the magic in 2020 is is "the exchange" on cnbc whether you're out here on lte.

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cyber monday sales are estimated to grow. cyber monday, today, by 19% to nearly $10 billion this year and that would make it the biggest day ever for online sales. december tends to be the worst month of the year for retail stocks for more i'm joined by michael baker, retail analyst. michael, welcome good to have you with us why is it, do you think, retail stocks on average have performed badly in the month of december over the past decade >> i think it's because of the risk there's so much risk to full year numbers that come in this short amount of time that any sniff of something going wrong or some disruption cause as little bit of a panic among investors. and typically leads to outsized moves. >> i'm looking at the stocks you

cover. they go from target, walmart, best buy, dicks, tjg, ross, burlington they're all doing pretty well, right? surprised? >> of the 16 names i cover the average appreciation is about 33%. it's been a really strong year for some of the bigger retails some target, at the high end of that, some others have been down but on average it's been a pretty strong year for those names. >> when you look at black friday winners and losers it looks like -- i guess these were online, nordstrom up 60% amazon up a lot. losers were target and jcpenney. what conclusions do you draw from those numbers >> we try not to draw too much after conclusion from black friday black friday we think has become

less significant than it had been in the past when i started out in the business it was all about black friday now that's been spread out deals start earlier in the month, even into october even after christmas we try not to draw too much in the way of conclusions on black friday i was in the stores, though, over the weekend and we saw big crowds and a great selection of toys at target some of the off priced retailers tjx in particular we thought looked great as well >> an engine running very well if i had to ask you for your favorites, what would they be right now? >> well, so the three names that we like, and this is not a december call. we do like the discounters and we do like the off price retailers.

tjx in terms of stock, burlington has more upside here. we also like lowe's closing the gap with home depot. on the discount side walmart, target, bj's are names we're recommending if we had to pick one it would be walmart at this point >> as i look at the stocks, some have really high gains like target up 88%. if i own those companies today would this be a good time to take some profits or a good time to wait to buy >> we think december is not a great time to own stocks in general. just looking at the historical data, retail does tend to underperform in the month of december and even if you start on black friday through the end of the year. that is more pronounced the more

a company makes in terms of annual profit in december or post-thanksgiving. best buy is one of the more volatile stocks and an underperformer this time of the year a great day when they reported last week. it does tend to underperform on the other hand the less a company makes, they tend to hold up better. home depot and lowe's tend to be strong performers in the month of december outperforming the market eight or nine of the past ten years. their christmas comes in april >> thank you, michael. appreciate it. >> happy to be here. >> from shopping to shipping, frank, this is going to be amazon's first holiday season without fedex. what does it mean? >> here is the question. can amazon deliver this year the packages are

expected to more than double, increased by 121%. this is the shortest window possible since 2013. the e-commerce market is half what it is now >> and yet an increase in package delivery they lose amazon how will they grow >> they actually single digit. the post office a double digit decline and a lot of that is due to amazon asserting itself fred smith called it out it's a war, we're all competing for the market share as we see amazon put more of those blue trucks with a smile on it on the roads, that's taking away from the post office itself >> the post office was their biggest deliverer? >> they still are. they're losing volume from amazon saying we're going to do

more on the ground and in the air. >> they've gotten really good at it i mean really good >> so we actually are going to be doing some stories later today about on time delivery rates. anything over 95% pretty good. all these companies are around the 98% range. it depends on what door, front door or car door about 15% will try this year how that impacts the shippers still has to be figured out. things that would normally get sent to their house. frank holland, thanks. time for today's exchange trading fact the etf that tracks retail, the xrt, coming off its third straight month of gains.

that's the first time it's put together a string of three positive months since august of last year. cyber monday isn't for retailers anymore. a look at who else is hoping to get a slice of the action. that's a hit by the way. disney has had a good november and a good year but with disney plus launched and frozen 2 in the rear-view mirror, can the company keep the momentum going into 2020? that is ahd.ea hi, my name is sam davis and i'm

going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare, you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then you're still responsible for 20% of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare and they also cover your medicare deductibles and co-insurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare plan, hospital stays, doctor office visits and medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription drug coverage. in fact, in 2018, humana medicare

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welcome back to "the exchange." some of the movers, a very rough day for some recent ipos beyond meat, zoom video, slack, crowd strike all down more than 3% crowd strike leading the declines off 8% following a price target cut shares of biogen falling the analyst saying investors haven't factored in the risk that shares could fall as the company presents more data on its alzheimer's drug later this week and there are some gainers on this down day including spirit airlines up nearly 2% on an upgrade to buy at buckingham, not the palace, the company. the bank citing new revenue streams, a new loyalty program and possible future m&a.

to sue herera for a cnbc news update hi, sue. >> hello, everyone here is what's happening this hour security measures under way in london as world leaders arrive for the nato summit. queen elizabeth will host tomorrow prince andrew's accuser is expected to ask the british public to support her quest for justice during a bbc broadcast later today. she says she was forced to have sex with prince andrew when she was 17 in connection with the jeffrey epstein trafficking scandal. prince andrew says he never had sex with her mayor lightfoot says she has fired johnson due to lapses in connection with his falling asleep behind the wheel. johnson announced he would retire at the end of the year. and an overtime win sparking a brawl on the field at the end of yesterday's unlv/nevada game in reno.

the fight, which is under investigation, started as players were celebrating in the end zone you are up to date that's the news update this hour emotions running high. >> absolutely. my team won and they stormed the field. >> they did. i was watching the game. >> good for you! i love that. here is what else is coming up on "the exchange." >> jack dorsey is heading to africa and investors are not happy. another company gets in trouble in china going against the crowd, why one analyst says it's time to sell roku and it's not just retailers getting in on the cyber monday action we'll tell you what other industries are looking to cash in at a aadn he exchange."

welcome back to "the exchange." a few stories you should have. it's time for rapid fire

welcome all three of you cyber monday, businesses are selling everything from pizzas to cross-country flights trying to get in on the holiday, it seems the agency is cashing in on discounts >> cyber monday we tend to think of clothes and tech gadgets. the travel sector are also offering their own deals royal caribbean saying you could bring a kid under 12 for free. hotels like hilton also offering discounted rates in europe and the middle east and africa as well the context is occupancy has been on the decline at around 69% which is down from the same period last year plus the average daily room rate is down. a tough third quarter so this is one way they're trying to incentivize more customers to travel this holiday season >> they want to buy stuff now

starting on black friday >> why do we have to just buy 4k tvs and cell phones and all that stuff? >> and pelotons and whatever >> plus, you guys who are millennials, you are into experiences anyway that makes sense, a trip rather than a gadget. >> or for a pizza, too >> why a pizza after we've just all eaten ourselves to death it's a huge leftovers day. by cyber monday you're on to shopping for the deals online, seeing restaurant companies like domino's, little caesar's but also grub hub was offering $5 off mcdonald's if you ordered from that restaurant on their platform i think in context with seema, the restaurant industry is becoming more and more tech savvy. tech is a bigger part of the story. why not throw up a cyber monday

deal people may be hungry as well >> let's move on to the next one. topic two, jack dorsey the ceo of twitter and square announcing a plan to move to africa for three to six months posting his plans after wrapping up a month long trip where he visited ethiopia, ghana and south africa he tweeted, quote, africa will define the future especially the bitcoin. >> before we discuss the future in africa and bitcoin i would remind everybody what you just mentioned, mr. dorsey is the ceo of not one but two publicly traded companies and if i'm a shareholder in either one, i think i would be dismayed that my ceo will be awol for three to six months next year. however he will be distracted beyond the other distractions he's exhibited over the last several years as he's built these two companies.

>> that's right. and also, too, the timing is interesting. you're heading into the 2020 election he didn't say when he'd be leaving. the whole disinformation thing on the internet between facebook and twitter, so much scrutiny right now. if you're a big shareholder, aren't you wondering why he's doing this now, what could be more important than making sure this platform is up and running heading into this all-important election >> it raises a point will there be a return on investment from the trip jack dorsey takes to africa one in three adults in africa do not have a bank account, tyler digital payments big opportunities. >> digital payments, bitcoin one of the things he cited also smart beehives one of the things he wants to -- i don't know what that is. >> bees are already smart. that's redundant >> recycled bags, shoe polish and other things >> oh, jack, what are you doing

now? >> he can grow his beard longer. topic three, roku getting hit hard after a downgrade by morgan stanley moving it to underweight from equal weight rising the price target on the stock to 110 from 100 morgan stanley noting the valuation is too expensive at 139 right now. expecting gross margins to fall and gross profit growth to moderate roku down 13% today but up 354% this year. thoughts >> i have a roku and love it the exuberance surrounding the streaming wars and how much emphasis has been put on this company for the growth that it's exhibited and can it really keep it up? at this rate it remains to be seen >> it has been a classic momentum stock early on in the streaming wars but now they're getting competition so, of

course, we're very early in the whole streaming phenomenon in this country >> the stream has become a flood. >> and will flood even more. there's no question that their business will continue to grow but at what rate that's the whole question. and that's when the momentum players tend to get out of the stock and find another momentum stock out there. >> it seems they're still bullish on the growth story behind roku but up almost 400%, from a valuation perspective it may not make sense at this point. they're still bullish and other alternatives like amazon's fire stick and google's chrome cast that are gaining traction. >> dc comics dealing with an unexpected controversy posting and then deleting a promotional poster showing batman throwing a molotov cocktail in front of the words the future is young. chinese fans interpreted this to be supporting the uprising in hong kong where protesters have frequently thrown molotov cocktails in their clashes with police

we reached out to dc comics for a comment and they have not yet responded. and yet they pulled this thing down >> it just speaks to the growing numbers of companies and organizations from christian dior to the nba that continue to cave in my opinion to the chinese. if there is a concern they'll pull off the ad or change. >> is the slogan the future is young a direct reference to what -- any slogan -- >> interpreted as such >> and i would say this, yes, while you can be upset that some companies are caving in what is arguably one of the biggest markets in the world, you can find opportunity and speaking of opportunity, maybe that's where jack dorsey should be going. somebody wasn't paying attention to dc because you shouldn't be getting involved -- if you're seeing the controversy that's growing elsewhere with other companies, nba especially, why would you put that out there

>> i don't even know -- >> hong kong does not come to mind >> if i'm sitting in the art studio, what is batman doing throwing a molotov cocktail anyway >> that's a good question. >> if you were not trying to send a message, taking it back almost creates a bigger controversy. >> it confirms the interpretation >> what happened particularly with the nba i think you'll see brands large and small considering. hopefully they do it before something like this happens because they don't have to backtrack. i had the same reaction, tyler >> stay out of the fray at this point. certainly find ways to grow your market share in china and in hong kong, but there are better ways to do it than to have batman throwing a molotov cocktail i still don't understand >> some would say being

disruptive and controversial is how you get the clicks and get more of the millennial base to pay attention to your brand. >> they're playing hardball over there. they don't mess around with all of that especially the hong kong protesters where they built these apps that showed which company was pro-china and which was pro-hong kong protesters, and they go after those companies that are perceived to be pro-china just step back and let this thing settle down. >> stay out of the news as best you can. folks, thank you very much always a pleasure. i'm going to see you in about a half an hour >> that's right. >> joining me on "power lunch. see you then disney making magic with hits like "frozen 2" and "toys story 4. 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10. breaking the internet with the launch of disney plus. what's on tap fodir sney in 2020 next

it has been a magical year for disney the stock was the best performer in november and has surged nearly 37% so far this year thanks in part to the launch of disney plus and a record box office can disney keep it up in 2020? that's the question for julia boorstin >> reporter: well, the good news for disney looking towards next year is that the launch of disney plus does not seem to be hurting disney's power at the box office with "frozen 2" setting a new record for thanksgiving weekend and looking forward star wars, "the rise of skywalker" which hits in december should boost studio numbers into the first quarter of the new decade. analysts are optimistic about early traction for disney plus hooking more subscribers out of the gate than disney originally anticipated. next year disney doesn't have as

strong a film slate of familiar brands as this year. "a jungle book" movie and a pixar movie. neither are sequels and its only marvel is "black widow" with no other "avengers" or "star wars" there's the risk of protests in hong kong. disney warning that if the protests continue operating income could decline back over to you >> what is on their schedule for next year? what are the big releases? >> reporter: "jungle book" could be huge. based on a disneyland ride the jungle cruise movie based on the jungle cruise ride at disneyland and the rock is such a huge movie star, he usually brings a big fan base. and then you have two pixar movies and the thing is they're always successes but sometimes

they're bigger than others and a pixar movie will spawn sequels like toy story did we just don't know what we'll get from the two pixar movies and then, of course, all the fox films that disney is folding into its schedule. we'll have to see how it does with those and which of those turn into the breakout hits. i think this year you have to look at the success of"avenger end game" and see they don't have anything on that scale coming next year >> all right julia, thanks very much. good to see you. everything has been awesome in 2019. everything investment wise at least. up next, a look at all of the vehicles that work this year and whether the momentum will push into 2020. that and more when "the exchange." with every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled. unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach.

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♪ everything is awesome everything is cool when you're part of a team ♪ ♪ everything is awesome when you're living our dream ♪ well, from stocks to gold to treasuries, everything has been awesome in 2019, at least so far.

it's late in the game, bob pisani >> reporter: you have stocks, bonds and commodities up and, tyler, even more unusual when they're up double digits everything is up double digits stocks up 24%. the s&p, crude is up the same amount gold is up 14% though it's flattish for this quarter. treasuries, long-term treasuries up about 14% you don't see that very often, folks. what's interesting is the breadth of the market in stocks is strong. so far all 11 sectors are positive that does not happen very often, even energy despite a lousy year overall is positive so far this year 419 stocks in the s&p are up, 83% of the s&p, a very unusually high number at the end of last year only 174 were up and we had that disastrous december.

this is not december 2018. three things that have motivated the market this year are different. the fed is not tightening this year they were last year. the trade war was heating up let's say an uneasy truce and some hopes that the global economy has been bottoming we did see the china and european numbers better than expected u.s. manufacturing disappointing. >> you're going to hang on for just a minute with us. what is this year's outperformance mean for 2020 chief investment officer of commonwealth financial good to have you with us i want to drill down a little bit. interest rates seem stable right now. corporate profits as we turn to 2020 may actually because of easier comps look pretty good but the question for you is will what worked in 2019 continue to

work and outperform in 2020 sector wise? >> i don't think so. i think we're going to see a different year next year this year we had growth continue we had a lot of worries that didn't actually that didn't come true next year we'll be out from under those worries. we're not going to get that. we'll have to work for real value creation >> what were the worries that didn't pan out this year i guess the principal one was the interest rates were going to continue to rise >> interest rates are a big one.

it's hard to see barring a complete disaster how the market could factor that in and take a nose dive. that's pretty much out of the picture. a lot of these worries have melted into the market >> bob, do you remember a year where everything worked like this it's the probabilities would tell you that. >> seven, eight, nine years ago there was one or two years where this happened but not too often. you can give the federal reserve some credit. they have said reflation is what they are looking at. i think that's the important thing here

the kind of growth those stocks exhibit is hard to find. they are expensive they can stay expensive for a long time. >> brad, you want to respond to that >> i think bob is right. growth is something that is scarce and have to pay up for. the valuations are extremely high the stock market as a whole is very pricey even by recent standards.

>> i think you can make the argument we're not over priced >> where are you going to make money? thanks very much good to see you. the u.s. is once again a net oil exporter something not seen since the 1940s. what got us there and which stocks could bef t mt.enitheos that is next yeah? so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity. i see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah. td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪ hi, my name is sam davis and i'm

going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare, you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then you're still responsible for 20% of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare and they also cover your medicare deductibles and co-insurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare plan, hospital stays, doctor office visits and medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription drug coverage. in fact, in 2018, humana medicare

advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $7400, on average, on their prescription costs. most humana medicare advantage plans help you stay active and keep fit by including a silver sneakers fitness program at no extra cost. and, you may be able to save on dental and vision expenses, because coverage is now included with most humana medicare advantage plans. you get all this coverage for as low as a zero dollar monthly plan premium in many areas. and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humana's large network. if you want the facts, call right now for the free decision guide from humana. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you can save on your prescriptions and to get our free decision guide. licensed humana sales agents are standing by, so call now.

energy milestone posting its first month of a net exporter of oil products for the first time in 90 years. it imports exceeded exports by 12 million barrel a day just a decade ago energy is the only positive sector on the s&p by on the day though not by much it's still the worst performing sector this year though it's still positive

we are a net exporter for the first time did you ever think a tech kad and a half ago that would complete >> a decade ago certainly not. we literally over the oil barrel for much of my life. >> me too. >> going back to when i was a young lad. this shell revolution was a big part of getting us over the hump and becoming the number one oil producer in the world and enabling a good chunk of these exports that offsets imports that we still take in in terms of crude oil especially to get us there also our refineries did an amazing job in terms of not building new ones but they have expanded the heck out of the existing ones. a lot of that has served to go elsewhere. mexico has become a big customer of ours.

>> one thing i do hear every now and then is about the balance shoots of some of the companies that have been involved. how healthy are they do they have too much debt >> they do we'll have to keep our fingers cross that the miracle persists. is upped a warning over financing that it might not be able to continue over going concern which means around the world. here's what's going to be the situation. even if a lot of these companies go under and they go bankrupt, the oil wells and oil properties don't go away, obviously the bigger players will come in by those assets and operate. >> and likely exhibit production discipline that we have never seen before. these newer independent oil companies they just chase the

blue sky mentality typical texas ten gallon hatters. drillers drill and real estate builders build good bad or whatever >> until they get fixed. >> you would have to say that the fact we're now a net exporter and producing as much oil and natural gas inoculates us against price jocks imposed from the outside that was one of the national security concerns. >> like never before. nothing, nothing came of it. >> very quick thought. there are democrats in the race who would like to shut down shale production >> huge mistake. there's problems with it there's environmental issues

it's made too big of a difference >> thank a lot that does it for the exchange. we will see you in a moment. here is what's new at 2:00 p.m. on power lunch stocks getting slammed as trade turmoil grips stocks and a weak manufacturing number ignites the recession concerns are we in for a december downer? retail sales exploding over the weekend. we'll tell you which stocks were the biggest winners. later, biogene sinking after one top analyst says wall street is getting the stock all wrong he'll be here to explain