there's problems with it there's environmental issues it's made too big of a difference >> thank a lot that does it for the exchange. we will see you in a moment. here is what's new at 2:00 p.m. on power lunch stocks getting slammed as trade turmoil grips stocks and a weak manufacturing number ignites the recession concerns are we in for a december downer? retail sales exploding over the weekend. we'll tell you which stocks were the biggest winners. later, biogene sinking after one top analyst says wall street is getting the stock all wrong he'll be here to explain

how power lunch starts right now the dow is down about 200 points slightly off the lows of the session. the big loser is the nasdaq. down by more than 1% ty >> thanks very much. president trump heading to the nato summit in london today. before he left he cast more doubt on a trade deal with china. >> president trump was noncommittal today on whether the phase one deal would be done this year. >> the chinese are always

negotiating. the chinese want to make a deal. we'll see what happens >> president trump tightened one screw on china by signing into law a bill with hong kong protesters trump faults the country's massive devaluation. >> i gave them a big break if tariffs. it's very unfair to our manufacturers and very unfair to our farmers. our steal companies will be very happy and our farmers will be very happy >> on top of all of that there's still the usmca where officials are hopeful for movement soon. there's eight working days left in the capital back the you trade concerns only part of

the reason stocks are tumbling today. bob is down at the new york stock exchange hi, bob. >> what we've got here is a bit of a hiccup. remember the three things that have gotten us to the new highs. the federal reserve is not tightening they were at this time that hasn't change number two the trade war you saw the president talking. let's call it an uneasy truce now. a lot of new news. it hasn't changed yet. this is what's changed the global economy a lot of people have come to believe that the global economy is bottoming maybe the numbers are improving. trade numbers particularly things like manufacturing numbers. here today, china had manufacturing number better than expected for the most part, better than expected the one exception, the united stat states we missed. it's not like a big thing you can argue. it interrupts the narrative a bit. that's the primary reason we're weak today if you look at the sector, it's

really been the big movers on the year it's been mainly tech names and also communication services that are also technology names. consumer discretionary, retail a bit weak you see the retail sector. take a look at what's down today. look at the five biggest stocks on the s&p 500 all of them down about 1.3%. apple has been recovering in the middle of the day. these five names, 16, 17% of the s&p. the whole sector will be dragged down then you have a group of the high beta names. they are in the top 25 they are all notably weak today. we get a few names that have done well. they are the ones down the most. the bottom line is the consumer is still really strong tyler, back to you >> thank you very much december starting off on a down note as trade remains the biggest mystery for investors.

are we in for a rocky ride let's bring in two contributors. michael, in the last hour we had an interesting debate on whether stocks are too expensive or not. do you view them as fully valued, over valued. they are certainly not cheap >> they are certainly not cheap. i'm going to say fully valued. earnings have sort of kept up. after 2018 we had a strong surge. stocks trading at 17, 17.5 times earnings isn't really awful. it's not really over valued. fully valued for sure. the thing i like about this market here and you know i'm always cautious but the thing i like is so many investors still seem to be nervous they still seem to be very

cautious and as long as nerves and caution are out there you don't see markets topped >> let's talk a bit broadly about the economy if we might. michael points out that recession is never ever really off the table completely he said it's not on the horizon either how do you see it? >> i would definitely agree with that all we can do is look at a set of indicators. if you went over to europe you would find the share is 55% a and china it's 45%

it's just harder now where the downturn could come from adviser to be in recent cycles from the financial sector while there's always speculation going on, i don't see any obvious bubbles. >> a lot of the economic outlooks for next year are being tied to this trade story you have kellyanne conway saying a phase one deal will be reached before the end of the year let's say we don't get a phase one deal do you think there's a chance that president trump will postpone the december 15th tariffs on china >> i think there's a pretty good chance that's probably the scenario that i would place above 50% i've been a skeptic of the phase one deal these guys can't get out of each other's way when it comes to this stuff that said, donald trump is starting to recognize that his trade war is bumping into his re-election bid. it really is having negative

impacts on manufacturing in the u.s. case. that's pretty easy to see in the data i look at the numbers this morning. this year manufacturers have been adding maybe around 5,000 jobs per month last year it was 22,000. that's a big deal for some key areas for trump voters >> michael, let me turn back to you and maybe challenge a bit what was said. the tariffs may have an economic impact but it would seem they have not had much of an impact, if at all, on stock prices the s&p is up 25% this year. the president pointed out that since his first tariff introduced in early 2018 the markets up 21% we worry about trade and on any given day reaction to trade headlines are what are showing up in the numbers. over the longer haul it doesn't look like stock investors are

all that about it. >> i think we should stipulate that nobody has done really well challengie ining jared too much >> excellent point >> the markets have gone -- we're up 25% this year we have gotten the whoops here we're down 200 points. short term volatility has been in place it's been driven by these headlines. it feels so stupid to have investors move 200 points on tweets that everything will work out and now it will not work out. we really do need to see the whites of their eyes it does look like something will happen the best point was this trade war is running into the president's re-election campaign and i think that looks like it will prevail more important i think is the new nafta, the usmca deal, that's happening in washington now whether it passes in the senate or not but i think nancy

pelosi gets that through the congress before the end of the year that's big >> great point sure they are intertwined but the bottom half of the population doesn't hold stocks if you look at the sensitive areas you're looking at blue collar folks who depend much more on their paycheck than stock portfolio. there's a group of democrat who is are blocking the usmca because they don't see the labor enforcements that they want. michael is right about where nancy pelosi is. thank you. to the bond market

>> we're seeing higher rates many central banks with lower rates in october when we get the moves short end is up a basis point. we're up five basis points when you look at november 1st boon deals look at how it rocketed higher. up eight basis points today. only five away from its last cycle of high close minus 23 despite the weaker data, for example, china, rates have remained buoyant after the drop on the number. down to half a cent. we really lost the rally that

was last week. back to you. >> thank you very much coming up, the holiday shopping season is off to a strong start for retailers today's shopping will push those spending figures even higher courtney reagan is spending cyber monday at a walmart fulfillment center in pennsylvania >> today's expected to be potentially one of walmart's biggest days of the year i've been busy i'll tell you how it's going when power lunch comes right back

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welcome back online retail have a monster black friday hitting a record $7.4 billion in sales. the online shopping spree continues today. retailers are cashing in >> from the time you order something it can be shipped and packed here in about an hour this is happening at six of these centers around the country. this is 1.2 million square feet and there's 12 miles of these conveyer belts today is expected to be a big day. 69 million people are forecast to shop according to the national retail federation

we already set those records on thanksgiving on black friday more records expected to be set today with online sales to grow 20% marking the biggest day in u.s. history for digital sales which is certainly saying something. similar to black friday, the way that we shop and the timing in which we do it on cyber monday has really shifted used to be we would get to work and needed the computers and high speed internet to shop. now we can do it on our phones which means the peak sale time is not expected to hit between 7:00 and 11:00 p.m. pacific time that's 10:00 here on the east coast. so far we have early search friend dat trend data they say best buy is leading the way seeing growth of 232%. walmart is number two. costco high on that result list just as it was on black friday too. thanksgiving to cyber monday is this big blur of online shopping

period 30% of the sales will happen between thanksgiving and cyber monday back over to you guys. >> let the shopping continue let's get a pulse of what the consumer is spending on so far and look at the big retail winners. doesn't seem like black friday is losing its appeal which companies do you think came out ahead >> i think walmart is one of the winners. they are coming into the holiday season with a lot of momentum. target is another. amazon >> we are seeing lots of signs

you see lots of percent off signs. really largely that's planned. i think the promotions are expected to be in line and planned. while those price cuts driver sales, they're not hurt earnings >> is there a hot fashion item this year, a must have >> certain product lines. >> there are puffer jackets >> do you have one >> i think i do. >> it's a style that works on every one. there are fashion items to get by in large a lot of accessories and a lot of the home stuff.

beauty has been hot. >> the big winners there sephora. >> ulta continue to take share >> that's been a trend to watch. we see real social media attraction we're seeing how that develops >> what have walmart and target done right not to say they were ever out of the game but there was a time, five years ago or so where people wondered whether amazon was just going to take everything and knock them out.

>> i think walmart and target really kind of figured out that we need to be where the consumer is and really kind of took that to heart walmart with the jet acquisition figured out we need to not be in the retail business but in the serving consumers business. walmart can also there's lots of ways to use the store in online context. >> order online, come in and pick it up on the store and you need to get some milk and doritos or whatever. using their assets to their

benefit. >> what does that mean for amazon >> amazon has got some real competition from walmart and target they are still way out in front. they're getting into retail with the amazon flair >> it's serving consumer >> absolutely. thanks for lending your expertise on all things retail >> thank you shares up 30% in two months after positive data for an alzheimer's drug but one analyst says don't believe the hype. he'll be here to explain why shares of roku taking a big hit. is this your best chance to buy the stock. that and much more when power lunch comes right back there's a lot of talk about value out there.

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frank has the details. >> the industrial sector is trading largely in line with the market following that weaker that expected ism number at t caterpillar and deere are trading down the major defense contractors all down by more than a percent north of lockheed martin all headed for the best year since 2013 back to you. >> thank you very much let's head over to mike for trading nation >> thank you very much we're taking a look at roku. stock still up 350% for the

year just in the last three months it's been wild where does this move stand how would you play it? >> it's a long term up trend for the stock. you see a gap down like this it's always difficult to determine what to do do we wait to add exposure i think the answer is yes. when you see a gap down following a nice move like we have seen in roku it tends to mark the beginning of a gap. i think there's a short term down skieds. the impact of this dramatic gap is short term for this stock it's not impacking the long up trend which you can judge by the rising average there is some support between here and there right around 117 to begin with.

>> one of the reasons we have wild swings for this stock is the size of the overall opportunity, internet, tv is tremendous nobody is quite sure when roku will be able to benefit financially in a meaningful way relative to where the stock is valued now where do you come down on? >> it's crazy expensive. it's not common for a company to get one downgrades from one analyst for a reason that everybody knows about which is high valuation and drop 10, 15, 20% in a day why did this happen? it's because this thing is priced for perfection and i believe at this point more could go wrong than right at these price levels right now i get why it's up 300 plus% this year people are cutting the cord. when you have more streaming competitors then roku should benefit but the valuation looks like they are the only game in town and they're not they are facing more and more

competition. >> there's a lot of multiple expansion and with that comes high expectation >> probably also kind of a high takes shopping season this holiday for roku we'll see how those numbers come through. thank you very much. head to our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation back over to you >> thank you very uch. ahead, beyer getting bearish. the analyst behind the call will join us. shares of twitter and square are moving lower we'll explain why he's doing this and ranchers fighting back against the growing popularity of alternative meat. how are they protecting their cash cows? just had to do it. we'll speak with one kacattle

rancher who's got a beef with fake meat. all this when power lunch returns.

welcome back here is your cnbc update at this hour it's getting harder to get around the u.s. at this hour a winter weather blast is disrupting travel across the country. portions of the northeast are expected to get up to a foot and a half of snow flight aware reports 600 flight vs been cancelled so far and almost 3300 are delayed. strong winds are pushing a powerful wildfire closer t homes in australia's new south wales. flames have burned almost 8,000 square miles killing six people and destroying more than 650

homes. an investigation is under way into a deadly bus crash in north chile. at least 20 people died. 21 were injured after the bus fell down a hillside a new cdc report shows almost 20% of teens and a quarter of young adults are pre-diabetic it finds they are more likely to be male and obese. the study was based on 6,000 people you're up to date. that's the news update this hour back to you. >> thank you >> markets right now the dow is up session lows trading down just by around 175 points the nasdaq is the one to watch the tech heavy index is down >> apache had no positive news to report about the drilling project.

that sparked concerns from investors. up next crowd strike shares falling after baird slashed its price. they pointed to the lock up expiration on december 9th for the 2019 ipo finally, deere shares are lower after bank of america downgraded the tractor to under perform the 2020 fiscal year will be challenging for agriculture and there's no guarantee it will even be the bottom bank of america prefers cat p caterpill caterpillar. the oil market closing for the day. let's go to frank at the cnbc commodity desk >> oil one of the lone bright spots in the market today. wti up a percent and a half.

>> further evidence of improving economic conditions in china factory data surprise to the up side in november the move lifting oil names like marathon, exxon and velero back over to you we're watching shares of biogene reegight now lower downgrading to underperform saying hype surrounding the company's alzheimer's drug is over blown with us is the analyst behind the call >> thanks for having me. the view is con ttingent ongoin for a medical conference where they will unveil the full data

set. we do not think that validates anywhere near approval in the fda. we'll see a comprehensive data thursday we think the response to that afo among physicians investor will be very negative >> how much more do you think the stock could fall if the data on thursday shows it doesn't slow down the process. >> i think you look at where the stock was before the data trading kind of 222, 30 range. the full expectation was baked in that it was getting rejected,

that's how much we think it can pull >> $10 billion for medicines do you think this has to do with the 2020 election. the prospect of elizabeth warren becoming the next president or is there something else behind the rise >> i think the rise is really con ttingent on a lot of these pharma companies and having to seek the efforts from the bio tech world i think that emanates slowed down by the risk of the election it's hard to build out future cash flow projections. you really don't know what will happen with drug prices. we think depending on who ends up being president that could

accelerate or decelerate >> what is it in the data that you expect to hear on thursday that has you so concerned? how do you go from a positive reaction to what you anticipate is going to be a very negative reaction to what's in the more fuller data set. >> i think what we'll see is a better characterization of what the actual efficacy advantage is we heard at a 23% improvement relative to placebo in loss of it when i think they characterize what that 23% means in terms of a numerical advantage people will be disappointed >> in terms of what? the terms of memory loss or clinical organic measures? >> that's part of the nuance

here it's using this battery that's meant to detect really minor changes in a person's overall cognitive and functional capability this will be a really small difference one that we think you would not perceive in a person if you saw that change in them. that's how small it is this isn't slowing down mortality or progression to dementia the best case scenario is you have something negliable this drug is not benign from a safetyperspective and really haven't fully characterized the safety profile for our benefit from these studies if there's any hair on that we think it's going to pale in comparison to what the proceed benefit is that's very small >> we'll watch that data on thursday the stock down 2% today. thanks for your time >> thank you google and youtube removing

hundreds of ads for president trump for violating company policy youtube ceo explaining how it manages this thorny issue. we have more >> twitter bans political ads entirely facebook allows all political ads and does not fact check them youtube say they do remover ads if they violate their policies she didn't explain which lines are drawn in the sand. >> can a politician lie on youtube? >> for every single video it's important to look at it. politicians are always accusing their opponents of lying that said, it's not okay to have technically manipulated content that would be misleading >> technically manipulated content likely refers to deep

fakes like this one that showed people saying something they haven't said or even doctored clips like that one of nancy pelosi they are trying to strike the balance between responsibility and pulling down ads or videos that are inappropriate but also the importance of freedom of speech there's one meaningful change that youtube has made around its political ad policies. just last month youtube announced you can no longer target political ads based on political affiliation. you can only target based on broader demographic information. back over to you >> thank you right now you're watching tv but what is your tv is also watching you weluh lle ghbapor ncwi brit ck

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it's hard enough to run one company, jack dorsey is running two. now he wants to continuing head

twitter and square while living in africa. we find out if he can do both. >> analysts are split on that. those who cover square see it has a huge opportunity they say africa represents the future and see it as forward loob i looking. the company does not operate in any other countries now. the company is still cash based. dorsey mentions bitcoin in a tweet. square already offers crypto trading on its app they'll see more adoption in emerging markets different story for twitter investors. it's an election year.

they will face scrutiny for ad models they say dorsey' absence could become a concern and any challenges could be compoundsed if he's nine time zones away both companies declined to comment. >> can you quantify the market opportunity in africa. i know when the story came out it raised a lot of eyebrows. why is he going to africa versus china or india i'd also point out a lot of v venture capital money is starting to go toward the continent. visa putting about $300 million to work. >> absolutely. analysts on square say this is the next frontier for square they also mention india and other emerging markets but africa is seen as the next step to square and they do not operate in any countries there right now. on the crypto side we haven't

seen that much adoption of bitcoin in the u.s in a country in africa there could be more viability for somebody to leave bitcoin or crypto currency that we haven't seen pick up here. jack has been advocate said he sees it as the digital currency of the internet. twitter a different story not the case there >> unlike the fed, nigeria central bank is open thanks for following the story for us here is taste of some of the other stories we'll be following today. disney ea disney's frozen two broke box office records it skating past hunger games that had $109 million in 2013. total north american ticket

sales declined 15% from last year the chilly sequel is raking it in, $785 million globally. have you seen that movie yet >> no. >> neither have i. disney shares having seen a magical ride now up 14% in the past month >> i can't think of another company that makes more money more ways than disney. they are brilliant at it are you watching your tv or is your tv watching you? the fbi warns smart tv owners that hackers could target these devices through their internet connections. earlier this year some tv manufacturers have come under fire for tracking viewing data on smart tvs and getting it to advertisers. they recommend keep your software up to date and covering the build in cameras with tape i hadn't even thaug they might be watching. >> they have our social media, mobile phones and now tv looks like fast food chicken

war has a new contender. mcdonald's is testing its own southern style chick en sandwic. it comes with a buttery potato roll the sandwiches are only available in houston and knoxville through january 26th >> i'm hungry. >> always hungry at this time. the frenzy over plant based meat alternatives has many in the beef industry hopping mad. up next, we'll go live to sweetwater, tennessee to get a cattle rchaners take on her issue with fake meat - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished, (group cheering) snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelor's degree. - [woman] it doesn't matter how old you are,

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well, fake meat fever is at an all-time high today just today, taco delmar is the latest company to announce a fake meat taco in a deal with beyond meat. alternative meat makers have been touting not only the health benefits of their products, but animal rights and sustainability as reasons to eat less real meat but the meat industry has some beef with these claims saying that the benefits are exaggerated and u.s. cattle

ranchers are now pressuring lawmakers to exclude terms like meat and beef from plant-based product labels joining us now is jennifer houston, the president of the national cattleman's beef association. jennifer, welcome. good to have you with us >> glad to be here thank you. >> do we know enough about the long-term food safety of these alternative meat products? and specifically, does your organization do what i would broadly describe as opposition research do you hire researchers to go in and look at those products and see if there's anything that might be deleterious to people's health >> we know what our story is and we know they're regulated by the food and drug administration on a plant-based burger, it's not so much a safety product, but we know what the nutritional

aspects of beef-based products are. >> what would you like to see the governments within states do would you like to see them require a different kind of labeling or they have to take the name beef or beef alternative out of their promotion and labeling or what >> we believe that to be called beef, it should be living animals raised on farms and ranches and harvested for human consumption. the new meat act in congress codifies that definition of beef there are some definitions of beef in the beef promotion research act, but not as opposed to labeling. we want to be a fair and level playing field so the consumers know exactly what they're getting and it's not disparaging and not misleading and if it is, that the real meat act will give the government more teeth in order to enforce mislabeling mishaps. >> so would a company like

beyond meat, would you have them change their name? >> i would just make it very clear that consumers know in any case that it's a plant-based product. that it's not beef our research has shown that consumers sometimes are mis -- well, they're confused when it says plant-based burger. that there is absolutely no beef in that. we just want to be very clear, because we know on a nutritional profile, beef is going to win certainly on taste but we want consumers to know exactly what they're getting if they get these imitation beef or meat products. >> jennifer, the efforts that you and other cattle farmers are taking on to take on these alternative meat producers suggests that the rising popularity of these alternative meats is starting to really hurt your bottom line is that the case >> not yet we've got to remember, these are just like 0.5% of market share and beef is like 99% of the market share

but we obviously are looking out for our product and we're going to protect our product so that things don't happen and the consumers know what they're getting. our number one competitor, still other proteins such as chicken and pork and we realize that, but nevertheless, we'll keep an eye on this trend and see what happens. >> beef consumption is actually up over the past 20 years or so, right? >> absolutely. and beef demand, which is even more important, the strong both here in the u.s., up over 17% up over the last seven years and internationally. we've got a great story to tell. a great sustainability story about how a lot of our beef is raised on land that can't be used for anything else about 40% of the u.s. is too rocky, too hilly, too airy but our wonderful four compartmental stomach beef animals can make high-quality protein out of these conditions they're able to get.

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so jack dorsey wants to go and spend three to six months in africa next year, living, because he sees economic opportunity and i think he is probably smitten with the culture. if you own that stock, would you be concerned about that? >> i understand that the skepticism, the criticism that jack dorsey is receiving but i actually think this makes

a lot of sense fricke is an africa is an untapped opportunity. china already has a foothold in africa they've been backing a lot of digital payments companies >> i think i'm with you. i think he's probably looking for an opportunity communications being what it is, it's fine. >> thanks for watching "power lunch" >> "closing bell" right now. >> and welcome to the "closing bell." i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen today. we're at the home depot post the stock down more than a percent after we got those weak manufacturing numbers. in fact, that's why the broader indices are lower today with 59 minutes left to go of the trade. wilf >> good afternoon, contessa. i'm wilfred frost. let's have a look at what's driving the action u.s. factory activity and construction spending unexpectedly fell in november, raising concerns yet again about the strength of the u.s. economy. president trump announcingsu