the december 15th tariff deadline it's on a sunday who knows if we go down to the wire or not i think the headline sensety is there but the market is in a good place. >> we did end the week high for the week as a whole on the s&p 500. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. indeed it does live from the nasdaq market site over looking times square this is "fast money." i'm tyler mathen in for melissa will lee traders tim seymour. steve grasso brian kelly and guy adami. tonight on fast, apple and alphabet, a pair of a's rocketing to all-time highs to close the week how to trade the sector that seems to go no where but up. but home builders have a millennial problem and may not be what you think. we'll have a look at the impact on the housing mechanic. look at the mystery chart, a different day than the rest of the market oochlt red there steve breaks down why he is keeping his eye on that one. by start today with the monster

rally on wall street driven by a blowout jobs report. the surge in payrolls helping the dow and s&p post biggest gains in more than a month the s&p erasing sharp losses from earlier in the week the focus now turns to the next week fed meeting, the last of get this not just a year, the daektd. >> yes. >> the decade end era. >> what a decade it has been. >> don't get guy going on the decade that was the fed. >> don't get me going. >> turns into an ugly show. >> only a half hour show i'm happy. >> are you happy always happy. >> hear the ring first of all welcome. >> good to be back with you guys >> tyler who we mention many times, cnbc royalty friday as steve mentioned off air before, you drew the short straw but here. >> i am here. >> thank you. >> and i am delighted to be with you guys >> to answer your question. >> i forgot the question. >> what was the question. >> the other three guys on the desk have been correct and positive the market seems impervious to

bad news the job numbers for those watching people will say this was the best case scenario for the market and fed next we can that may be true but you know, as much as you can jaw bone the trade talks, we're no closer i believe today than six months ago so december 15th is right around the horizon. the warning signs there. but look and see the market pushing all-time highs with stocks that again seem impervious to bad news it's very hard to make a cogent negative argument right now. >> it almost seems that bad news -- i'm not saying is good news but if bad news lingers, the fed comes back in play. >> yeah. and you can't risk shorting the market because you have a good headline coming out. >> if there is a trade problem and no deal or the tariffs go up, then it brings the fed back into play. >> you have the fed. if bad news persist. economic data goes south but if there is good news the market rallies. >> it's been interesting to me this year and maybe going back to maybe march of last year.

>> yes. >> is the idea that every day we come on air and talk about the latest trade tweet or headline. >> it's been a week of that too. >> on tuesday, the president president says i don't need to do a deal maybe wait until next year market goes down. >> larry kudlow the market goes up and in part and from the jobs report any given day it's hostage to trade headlines. but when you look at the whole year, there's been trade headlines every day and the market is up 25%. >> right. >> tyler. >> how material is it really >> it's interesting because this week we had a couple of guests i remember joe coming on saying the trade deal means nothing process you look what's priced in and how the market responded. i was listening to clsa saying the same thing today and the trade deal is something seen as incremental delta here higher but in the short run we priced in the trade deal. if you think about the payroll number today, i have seen

goldilocks before and goldilocks looks attractive today you almost got an acceleration of growth today from the payroll number a job lets claims number took away some of the fear. total diversion between adp and non-farm payroll bizarre treasury yields did nothing today and looking at wages, a non-inflationary payroll number. that -- i saw a lot of folks, comments i trust and think about come in after the number and say i still think the fed is on hold until the middle part of 2020. >> i think you have to play that even if they raised a quarter point, if you have strong payrolls like this the market saps hey, you know, all that negativity that we priced in october and november is not warranted. we have to reprice this, reprovides the acceleration, whether or not that comes true, that's something for q1, q2 of nextier. but i think what grasso is saying you can't short the market is that the market just

goes up on every single piece of the news to me the way i've been playing it is you have this breakout in the market maybe it's a blow off top. but the bottom line is until proven otherwise, you have to be long stocks. >> you're getth your chance to short the market i think in come q1 that's where you see where estimates are. i think everyone rach et cetera up estimates probably a bit high for earnings if they can't walk over earnings then you get the chance to short them early next year not now. >> not now the thing that i look at and i sit there and go, okay, low inflation, moderate growth. >> low inflation, the way the fed measures inflation. >> i'll play the game. >> right pretty low inflation moderate, not run away growth. low and accommodating interest rates, recession and global slowdown seemingly those worries are away it doesn't get much better than that for stocks. >> doesn't get much better than that and you add on top in the fact since september the fed

increased the balance sheet at the quickest pace in a decade. i mean, i think it's now more than $300 billion over that course of time now the balance sheet is north of $4 trillion again that's a significant number. and the escalation -- >> almost as much money as blackrock has. >> which is equivalent sflo. >> reverse of the way it was when tightening. >> you have to ask yourself again they call what they want doesn't matter what they call it this is another round of qep what are they scared of? that's what concerns me. the market doesn't care. but you have to wonder what they care about. >> the market does care. cares that they are putting more liquidity into the system. that's all the market cares about at this point in time. i don't think they are seeing anything that anybody else is out there. i don't think they have a crystal ball in fact the history of the fed shows they're terrible at forecasting the economy. but the bottom line is as long as they keep liquidity out there to tyler's point where we have the economic environment looking very different than it did six

weeks ago. six wooeks ago there were calls for recession. six weeks ago you saw global pmi turning over bond markets saying things will be problems here we saw the yield curve flattening again all the things the market priced in six weeks ago changed over the last week. >> and the most important thing is you don't get a chance to -- growing up in this business basically, you got a chance to short the news buy the rumor, sell the news can you sell the news right now? you have three phases of it or five or six phases of trade deal. >> to put sanity into this -- we're not all insane. >> who is insane. >> we're not insane. but in january 26 of 2018 is seemed perfect too a and we saw the headline on trade. what we're maybe saying is we think trade is put into an appropriate place here but i think that ultimately you get to place where if we do see more deacceleration -- and to be clear as good as the payroll number was we've had a chop kbr

data front out of the u.s. over the last six weeks including an ism weaker and ism services weaker. so i think we have a case here -- we talked about the fed -- one of the more than parts about guys assessing that the fed is not measuring inflation accurately is we heard rumbling this week that the fed's target is something they are willing to overshoot and that's another one of the dynamics where we think we can let it run a lot hotter than we have in the past because let's face it, if anything, reowe we are fighting deflation. >> but -- where are you bringing the sanitiy back in because the reason the market sold off. >> i ached you being insane and i don't bring the sanity back. >> you have insane people over here. >> i know. >> there is at some point you have to exercise some caution. because we -- it wasn't even three days ago we had the tweet or the news that perhaps the trade deal wasn't as fwd as possible that will happen again so how do you trade the portfolio in this? as the market starts to rise and

as everybody gets you'vic then you buy puts, protection when the vix is low buy protection at that point in time that way you can homd the core positions and don't have to worry about the one tweet taking you out of a position. >> we're three weeks waigo away from the end of the decade. >> we don't talk enough about. >> >> i'm come back on tuesday but asking the question tonight any. will the next decade be as good as this has been for stocks. >> a lot of people believe that people believe this is on autopilot. i'm hard pressed to belief that's the case. i'm one of the people that believe the errors and mistakes of '08 and '09 have in the backup solved but just moved and that has to come home to roost. and a decade is a linc time. i'm hard to believed that the next decade. >> ten years. >> i'll fif you an emphatic know no on that. >> no it will not. >> but the story -- you could have the blips, volatility we all think sooner or later

something has to blow up but historically stocks rise 10 peppers taking auto owl the noise 10% on average. >> the preceding decade was a lost decade. back where you were you have the cyclical. >> you can have these periods the stocks don't do well. >> what close in the 70s. >> pull up a chart of the last decade and see how much we are up on the s&p. >> the can i just say -- let's go to break. you must have been a ball in the 70s, yes. >> yes, i was more fun than i appear to be. >> that's impossible to believe. >> very fun. >> all right come up homemade home builders the best year since 2012 speaking about the decade but they are struggling to keep up with demand from one key group. what that could mean with the housing market and later, coffee anyone which one tradeder says this stock is brewing up a big break out we bring you the name live from times square in new york city and much more "fast money. see how fast knows people are

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welcome back, everybody to "fast money. first they only wanted to rent and mostly in williamsburg, brock lynn

now they want to buy and millennials are so hot on housing right now that builders can't keep up. diana olick in washington with the details. >> hi, the majority of single family instruction disinterest is millennial dense counties and lags the rest of the nation in demand counties with elevated millennial demand account for 62% of the population but 59% of single family home building aeshld according to national association of home builders not just urban areas counties where more than a quarter of the population is millennial include big markets in california and seattle. boston, portland and d.c. but rural counties in ohio, kansas and missouri multifamily construction in millennial counties accounting for 80% of all apartment activity nagt nationwide picking up but slower than the national base and the build resist are said to not be doing enough to alleve the housing shortage.

>> home builders have been a sturdy trade for investors this year the xhbatf -- that's a lot of letters. >> too many. >> that's taxing i'd like to buy a voul. >> come one a better name. >> up more than 40% in 2009 not all companies are created equal in a note out this morning goldman sachs nishlted coverage on the sector with mixed reviews. lennar and poulioty scoring buy. goldman sachs slapped sell on dr horton and meritage. can the trade hold. >> what we hear are structural issues in the sector making it difficult to get to the incremental level of growth. it's attractive trading 20% cheap to the five-year history i do think the structural issues on affordability is why i want to be in the home improvement names, the home did he pope this week wrestling with important support levels around 215, 216 and held the 20 oh

i think that's more where you see it we talked about the decade that was, home depot has outperformed home builders dramatically as the s&p and i think that trade continues. >> you look at xhb or itb, the home construction e etf, we're trading around $46 bounced against that three times i don't think you have to rush into it, right you can play the breakout on this and still make all kinds of upside if there is the shortage if there is a shortage the next thing that happens price has to rise and that's going to be a pretty good for the home build esper. >> the problem is that home build esper can perform. if you look at rates and overlay it over the stock price when rapts move higher these things move low are so they could have great earnings but there is headwinds with rates and i still think we're closer to higher rates versus lower. >> really. >> even around the fed. >> steve a not insane. and in fact makes a good point

think about the insane move the three standard deviation move we had lower in yields over the summer you had a place here we are yields went from 3.25 down to 19 ht 44. >> tyler you know i'm a big fan of the two to three show, the power lunch, it's a fantastic show you talked recently about the restoration hardware, have you not. >> yes, i have. >> and you look at that stock and we talked about it on this show look at the last quarter, a ridiculous quarter operating margins now 13%. same quarter last year, 9.5% i mention that because this is important, a josh brown statement. this is important listen up. dan nathan says that every time. >> yeah. >> but inventory down 24% year over year on sales growth. meaning margin will be better next quarter 17 times earnings, the stock going up 15, 18% in a week and a half i think it has room to the upside. >> my eye ball test confirms ma what you say people are

eninnovating i went through a big kitchen renovation world's longest by the way. >> js congratulations. >> no oven. >> well why put the oven. >> why all you do is two microwaves you're good but all that's -- so many of the houses in my town have signs of contractors out front or trucks in the driveway. and that is a good sign for the home supply companies out there. >> i think so. and again the margins on the professional services allowed these guys to be less cyclical and at the time we wer concerned about tariffs impacting prices especially coming from asia, these guys have been able to mitigate. >> can't get enough about the millennials if you'd like to learn more about how they are impacting the housing sector, who are they. >> causing trouble. >> it's weird. >> head to cnbc.com. home builders aren't keeping one millennials. they run fast. and there is more "fast money" ahead. here is what's coming up next. >> gold prices posting the biggest drop in a month. we'll look at what that says

about the markets and the economy. and we're breaking out the stretchy pants and yoga mats for will you lieu lemon and tell you how the rkmaets are getting ready for theinjures "fast money" returns after the break. (vo) the moth without hope, struggles in the spider's web. with every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled. unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach.

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doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. and welcome back to "fast money. got a quick programming note for you. monday is coca-cola's hundredth anniversary as a publicly traded company we are cracking open a cold one with the ceo james quincy catch him on zwauk on the treat 9:00 a.m. eastern time switching gears. deliberations began in the defamation against elon musk jane wells is there with the

details. >> hi, tyler they've been at it about 50 minutes they have to decide one thing. how would a reasonable person construe the pedo guy tweet? is it an insult, which means an opinion and therefore can't be defamation one of the interesting things we have sketches from inside the courtroom. vernon unsworth the cave expert on the stand said he kept the hurt inside. yet he wiped tears from his eyes as his own attorney got choked up during the closing argument telling him it's the privilege of my career to represent you. in fact, the attorney lynn wood quite a character. became emotional so many times that the judge told him to keep emotions in check. both unsworth and elon musk are in court

unsworth is in front of the jury and back to the jury elon facing them unsworth's attorney lynn wad was only three feet from elon musk pointing at him saying he is a liar, billionaire bully saying he knew what he was saying it wasn't a insult because he googled unsworth before the tweet and about the area of thailand after that musk's attorney got up and said, look, come on, let's get real this is just two guys insulting each other wood, the unsworth attorney suggested we have ideas for damages if you want to consider here they are. $40 million in kpens tory. and 35 million for assumed in the future and then to punish with punitive damages maybe at least $150 million would discourage him in the future elon musk attorney said is this

the price is right however, he did say if you want to consider damages, give him a dollar or vernon unsworth charges $1,000 per speech he gave a performance this week it's in the jury's hands it's a friday afternoon. jurors want to get it done before the weekend so they don't have to come back. they can go back to work. >> jane wells, thank you very much in california for us let's turn from tesla to a trade which sent stocks on a roller coaster ride and mr. grasso noticed a particular asset that got caught up in the big swing. gold, zblier gold is obviously when it's risk off people run to goldman. it's become again a safe haven when the fed is out of play not cutting rates it can't get out of its which but the interesting thing there is a chance on gold miners gold mine esper is two to one basically the performance of gld. gold miners up 30 peppers year to date.

gld up 15% you are getting your chance in january, february, march, to buy gold. >> when the market is. >> when the market starpts to bleed -- starts to run into a couple of headwinds where the long short hedge funds want to take a shot at it again on the bear side. >> yes. >> you play gdx for the beta play. >> that's the stocks. >> that that's the etf in the gold miners because they're a two to one replace so you get the higher beta move. >> look at the moept move in platinum and paladiu there are bullish signs for precious metals there is a time we said gold rallied on everything. and we have a dynamic if you were you have inflation. central banks buy gold new month mining a little rally. being in the miners makes sense. >> final trades, tim you go first. >> a lot of gold is mined in a

lot of places outside of in country including emerging markets if you think about china's rating and weighting in the overall indices and the moves we've had in daft are data the last couple days eem looks interesting. >> bk you are up. >> when you look at the rally. oil rallied today. next week the saudi aramco buy u.s. oil eye into the catalyst. >> steve, you're up. >> kpt car, ticker symbol of car pch i've talked about it i'm in this up 38% year to date breaking out to you technicalwise. >> what's its called. >> afis budget. >> everyone put to dead what they think the ren a car business up 38%. >> guy. >> fans at georgetown university david is celebrating his birthday he is not out. you know what he is doing. >> no. >> he is watching "fast money" and then the oa which i'll be on. >> you'll be here. >> with you my man.

>> sure. >> dan nathan. marathon oil look at that. mro going higher >> you're from what looked like a bad week it turned pout a good week tad to end it you appreciate it tyr.>>hat does it for "fast mon" don't go anywhere "options action" is up next ♪for the holidays you can't beat home sweet home.♪ we go the extra mile to bring your holidays home.

♪ take it easy ♪ ♪ take it easy ♪ don't let the sound of your wheels drive you crazy ♪ ♪ ♪

happy friday option action "options action" fans i'm tyler mathisen for melissa ree big show on dock and here is what's coming up. >> tonight on "options action." >> to infinity and beyond. >> stocks soar following the blowout jobs report. if you think there is room to run in the record rally mike khouw has the perfect which to play it. plus guy adami is finding much needed zen for the portfolio how he trades lulu lemon into next woke's earnings and later. >> know what can help you sort ro