>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the marketsite in time square becky is off today take a look at u.s. equity futures. s&p looking like it would open sof about 10 points. nasdaq also down about 36. and the dow set to open down about 110 points the 10-year note now at 1.812. as i was thinking about paul yesterday, i was thinking what would he think of all of this right now and where treasury yields actually sit. >> at a moment in time,

historically it may end up being more and more of an an oration >> that his experience was >> the whole yield curve interest rate environment. we had a misery index back then where you add unemployment and inflation together. >> it was up in the low 20s. >> we may never see that again i hope we never see that again unless we do if we do, that means something is very wrong. >> a man and his moment -- can you imagine a fed being so -- taking really the world on in terms of i'm going to break the back of inflation, i don't care what happens to go to 21.5% on the prime. what year is it now, 2019. he dies at a pretty old age. >> 92 years old. >> 92 years old and struggling to get to 2% because he

harnessed or vanquished it so effectively when he did. he will be remembered. he was a very tall man and nice man. i know you spent some time with him. he was on the show a lot >> he was. >> the same day, you are dealing with cookie monster or what was it, oscar the grouch >> you are oscar the grouch. the puppetear behind big bird passed away on sunday. >> right now, i'm worried about a lot of things. great iconic musicians and actors from my childhood they are getting up near volcker. clints movie out about richard jewel. he's directing at 89 >> amazing >> pat sajak he's fine but you know he didn't

hoover last night. >> vanna did >> how do you know that? >> okay. to the woke, my friend. >> but you didn't see it >> i heard she twisted the thing around and accidentally hit the wrong one. i grew up with her >> pat is funny. he's unbelievably good at doing that she's fine she's not pat but she made up -- >> doing it for the next three weeks. >> getting old is a bitch i'm telling you. he had an intestinal blockage. emergency surgery. i'm fine, i think. >> i hope so just the two of us today >> maybe it is just gas.

why are you laughing you know what i'm talking about. if anybody knows auto sales falling in china for the 17th straight month in november down 0.6% more than 5% in september. ford expects 2019 loss in china to behalf of what it lost last year a statement to caution that should be considered official guidance for the china performance. sticking with china, consumer inflation rose to an eight-month high as the price of pork doubled from a year ago. it appears to be nearing a peek. chinese imports of american soybeans increased 13 fold compared to the same time last ye year as trade talks continue further

agreements fell outside normal trade channels >> we'll do a little political news now in the headlines >> i see the bounce in your step as you get to this story eyes are lighting up >> a warning democrats in the house judiciary committee plan to announce two articles of impeachment against the president today. those are abuse of power and obstruction of congress. a news conference for all of this scheduled for 9:00 a.m. today. of course, we'll continue to monitor and keep our eyes on where it goes. we'll switch to corporate news a former manager at boeing speaking out ed pearson said he flagged problems with the 737 max in the months before two deadly crashes forced the grounding of the aircraft that's the important part.

in the months before he worried a push to increase production would lead to critical mistakes. pearson testifies before congress tomorrow. in an exclusive interview, he described the conditions at boeing's plant >> what words would you use to describe that factory at that point? >> dangerous unnecessarily. taken an unnecessarily risk, chaotic, disarray. >> he says he sent an email to the general manager of the 737 max program in june, four months before the crash of the lion air jet in indonesia he expressed concern about exhausted workers who were, quote, inadvent antly implementing hazards and said for the first time, he would hesitate putting his family on a

boeing plane and suggested shutting that plant down they said boeing took his concerns seriously it is worth noting that those two crashes happened it appears in large part as a result of this mcas system which doesn't seem to be necessarily related to some of the concerns he was raising at that time but maybe suggestively there are problems within the culture and pushing things ahead if you were to agree with this. >> i worry about a lot, as you know i know you do too. usually not flying, still. >> i try not to worry. i think about it before hand >> look at the record. don't get any food out of a vending machine. your life is in much greater peril as you do that as getting on an airplane

so that's good why are you laughing a lot of that has to do with boeing and over the years how phenomenally great i know, i'm not saying we always need to say they are great but i think in general, it is a great company. great employees that try to do the right thing 99.99. we are in a sixth signal world when flying or making pharmaceuticals. six sigma where managers would try to get errors down to one in 10 million that is pretty good. uber is facing this in a big way right now. the incidents that total 3,000 we talked about this yesterday, santa fe is ending research in dieabetes research.

part of the overhaul the company will instead focus on cancer. we saw one of the acquisitions yesterday. we'll have more on this decision when paul hudson joins us on 8:15 eastern set the nintendo switch gaming system on sale in china. the console helped the shares jump to a 19-month high. trying to win chinese consumers who lean towards free to play mobil games. shares of agilent are higher this morning to tell you what is going on here bill ackman's pershing square.

he's up 50%. >> what is the biggest winner? do you know? >> this year, i don't know his biggest winner most of it is not straight activism but value investing meanwhile, shares of netflix dip briefly following the disclosure as some suspected that netflix would be ackman's next big buy >> i saw an article that had the ceos of amazon, netflix, make r microsoft riding little race cars and i think netflix was top dog. the world is all coming around

to netflix you saw what nbc is going to spend on peacock $2 billion >> you think that's a lot or a little >> i think it is a lot the same at at&t is spending it is on content >> i think it is a much more disciplined view relative to netflix and at&t, frankly. i think investors were expecting crazy spending >> we will end up going to peacock in your view >> you know we should hope >> i do hope so. we all worry i'm doing a lot of worrying today. with he worry about cord cutting and everything else but the content is just getting different pipes. it is distributed differently. hopefully the content will stay valuable we've seen analog dollars move

this is with sports. any minute now something could happen with earnings report or ecp decision you can't repeat this. we can run live ads still. we'll have an ad segment on. tv ad segment not falling. >> i'm not worried >> you are not worried it has to last longer for you. >> you had asked the question. >> you look distracted >> chiplote, united and hilton may have been. stitch fix revenue has grown a number of active clients rose 16%. shares are rising and could be set for their best day in six months coming up, weigle talk to

the stitch fix founder and ceo on squauccnbc for her very firs interview. >> coming up, the fed decision it is the second triple-digit day if it holds on the dow down about 120. and we'll tell you about investment buys that may be hurting your 401 k the problem and solution, straight ahead ♪ we call it the mother standard of care.

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>> the fed is getting ready to kick off a two-day meeting joining us now our guests. chief economist, macroeconomics. you've been negative for a while. you hate these tariffs and the trade war. >> i hate the trade war friday, with you were calling it either a fluk or -- >> i think so. you seem inclined to think it might be a fluk and that

consumer spending is at a last gas. you mentioned it is a marathon, not a sprint >> it is the holidays, a lot of numbers are flying around. it is a long season. we don't know yet. the evidence is very mixed we have a bunch of business surveys very weak. we have payroll numbers that are pretty strong. consumption is okay. it is not going to charge on the way it did in the spring and summer a lot of cross current swirling around we don't know yet. i hate sitting on the fence. >> you may not be either or. you may be a little of each? >> might be. >> either way, what has happened in the stock market, you would have to say there is a disconnect there regardless. >> there is.

>> you think that's way ahead of itself >> they don't want to call it qe, it looks like it bank reserves are being pushed higher the market is okay it is not unsanely overvalued. i never really bought the recession story in the summer. >> you would have thought muddling along >> i think that is the most likely single outcome. that's not terrible. it doesn't justify the market taking another leg up from here in the short term. >> you confine things to buy that can outperform. that is what you are interested in >> we are seeing the economy still needs to have a strong consumer in light of this strong consumer which continues from the strong jobs numbers we saw over thanksgiving and the holiday

season we think you can be overweight some parts of tech the consumer is seeing a real wage growth. it doesn't need to be either or, it can be and/or both. the industrial economy is soft as evidenced by pmi and business surveys. as we look to next year, we are seeing that you are going to have the lagged effect of these fed cuts you'll have 60% globally all of that is asking for stimulus >> there is always this argument that certain investors want to own certain names. there is another view people want to lock in certain gains. people are trying to be efficient with their money how does it play itself out in terms of how the next couple of weeks plays out?

i'm asking the question. >> nobody wants to be in the two-week forecasting business. >> these terrible things are real things that can be outweighed by news if something blows up in the trade war, positive or negative. that could blow this away. that could actually happen we are going to hear something about these tariffs on december 15 the market has pretty much priced in the idea that it won't happen if the announcement comes, we are going to do it, that will swamp the market for a day or two. >> microsoft, adobe, lamb research >> yep >> even if the market is plot, that will go down less >> exactly right >> bank of america, black rock >> we are seeing the banks do well, corporate lending is doing

okay credit soft has not become a problem. those stocks are very cheap. bank of american is a name we've owned a long time and looks attractive going into next year. on the tech side with microsoft and the azure business and pivot to the cloud adobe is a grower. you have free cash flow that is 150% of net income it is not as expensive as it may look the return is 50% cost of capital is higher. producing that cash flow, that is a pretty straight forward story. doesn't mean it will be straight up between now and year end but the rest of the month, absolutely >> you are looking for a downward revision. if the ghost of future christmas

visits you, will you let us know what he tells you? >> i will. that's what the survey says. they are not always right. sometimes they are sometimes they are a year later. we are trying to hit a moving target it is tricky >> all right don't be talking us here and distracting us coming up, more on "squawk box. we'll tell you about a common investment mistake and it comes down to how your in investment options are listed alphabetically you won't want to miss this. ♪ when it comes to your customers' expectations,

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cool. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome back to "squawk box." right here on cnbc we are going to talk about investing in your 401 ks this morning. it is often an alphabet soup investors are more likely to

choose funds listed at the top of the list. this so-called alphabetical buy is costing investors welcome our guest. coauthor of a new study on this very issue good morning to you. >> good morning. >> i have to say i was floored by this idea that where the company and what is listed in the 401 k in terms of options literally based on the alphabet makes a difference >> it does it is surprising but the data bares it out we find that investors overwhelmingly choose early alphabet stocks as opposed to lower that come on their plan wren u menu >> does that mean everybody is

that dumb. >> it is a nonconscious dumbness you have an idea of what you'd like to invest in. you start at the top you find something that satisfies you -- >> okay. hold on. we do this show every morning. one of the things i like to think is that we are democratizing the markets to have fair markets. we want both professionals and my mother and father and anybody else to be able to invest with the same information and same degree of success, hopefully >> you've always -- >> you may not believe -- >> you know what you want to do but you don't know where to keep him. the monkey >> that's true >> because you are sure the

monkey can win but they throw other things >> i wanted to have a chimp to come on the set quarterly. >> so this is you democratizing the market >> no. >> the same phenomenon what should we do about it >> there is a lot of things we can do first to recognize everyone does make biased decisions. the more you know, the more can you overcome when you sit down to make your 401 k decision, decide what is important to you first is risk important to you >> but the indication is that you are going down >> so resort resort the list. then the thing that is most important to you will be at the top and look down the list >> andrew, you know how many companies name themselves. it used to be at the top of the

phone book >> hold on this goes back to personal responsibility right, joe nannie state versus the -- so what is the answer here? if people are literally looking at the thing and don't have the patience to get to the bottom of the list, that is a problem. >> it is a problem employers used to define benefits planned now it is a more defined contribution plan, it puts more responsibility there is some middle ground. employees can be advocates >> is there a way -- this idea that employees can sort these for you or provide tools to make it very accessible to do that? >> they could resort the list, they could choose better defaults so if you don't want to

make a decision yourself, you are already opted in or put up a first screen that says -- >> then you get into a dangerous place. if the default is fabulous, it is fabulous. if not, it is not so fabulous. >> default to investing something is better than nothing. >> that is not an alphabet bias? >> it is not >> but it goes to the whole idea about whether individuals on a whole -- we have great viewers here who care so deeply about the market but there is a lot of people who don't care enough, frankly, i would argue. should we leave this all to people to do what they like? >> i think there is a happy medium where some good defaults are chosen for you your funds are sorted according to some criteria or a screen that says before you make a

decision, sort according to your best criteria and allow people to make their own decisions. >> thank you that is some news for you. the next time i'm on the plan, i'm going to sit there and read to the bottom. is there a resort button >> there is usually a simple resort button. >> does van guard and fidelity and these guys, do they have technology on their site to allow any of this to happen in a better way >> not your 401 k. that is your deferred comp plan, which is 10 times as big as your 401 k. >> some people have 401 k plans and others have deferred comp plans. >> a highly paid employee like you. be honest.

don't pretent you are like everybody else using your little $2,000 ira contribution. you are not. you work for the new york times as a big time agent. talk about deferred comp my agent by the way, thank you. an alert for business travelers if you are planning to fly between now and january. we'll tell you how busy your airport is going to be a look at yesterday's s&p 500 biggest winners and losers biggest winners and losers ♪

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♪ good morning a big gain >> getting into the song here. just the two of us >> i wasn't thinking about that. i was thinking about the market. down 140 we were down about 100 when we started with the two of us here. friday, we had the big jobs number a few weeks ago, we thought december was turning into like last year, which it didn't at 300 points on friday after the strong job's report. yesterday, we were down about 110. today, it has gotten worse we are down to about 140 on the dow. i did some research and found out today is december 10 that was the research i did.

i learned that december 15th is five days away we are assuming december 15 is fine in terms of the tariffs in the market right now i think it is assuming that that is not going to get worse on the 15th maybe the marker now is saying we need to say something i cannot make way of the progress impeachment, you know we are watching the con vision.org. you started this with the politics >> the political news. there were some headlines this morning for people to hear about. >> if i did the predicted.org. i would bet money more democrats would vote with republicans even in the house than there are republicans that vote with

democrats. in both the house and senate because there are some democrats waffling on if they go for the articles >> but i bet there are some republicans. >> i bet there are not. >> you believe there are none. none >> okay. i think there are going to be some democrats in some states. i would imagine maybe more republicans. >> we'll bet on maybe more than zero. >> i thought you were going to say more than democrats. more than one. that could be a half >> some other big headlines this morning. apple asking a federal court to continue monitoring two former employees accused of stealing trade secrets. a hearing where prosecutors argued the two former employees

were a flight risk as they headed to the airport to return to china they say they are returning to visit family alphabet adds biology to the board. arnolds is professor of chemical engineering and bioengineering the third woman on the company's 11-person board. in a sweet, quote, she brings incredible academic and industry expertise and beyond all the things we know google for, they have that other bets category and some of that is in biotech in a big way >> you were outlast week >> i was >> we talked a lot about this. >> which part? >> my favorite other alphabet venture is -- one i think is manageable is curing death whatever it costs.

they got a lot of money. i think they really need to try to do that flying cars one thing. >> worthy goal >> getting the cloud, sorting things out that's important but curing death -- before we go to mars. >> i'm all for extending life. >> there is talk of some day we are just going to miss. maybe we need to do -- who froze themselves walt disney. >> walt disney is cryogenically freezing himself taking met forman. >> you know people are getting blood transfusions those are new age bull i want it real

i want telameres to make sure our cells can divide but not cause cancer and you can live forever so i want them to cure death and did you see who they put on the board? one of the leading biochemists don't you think that plays into their other side >> i don't know if it plays into that particular side project >> the reason we were talking about it last week, this gentleman, one of our reporters here said sundar just got the worst job. now their pet projects they are not going to be held accountable. they hold all the controlling interest but it is up to sundar to make them work. curing death might be hard next quarter, i don't think it will be in the numbers yet >> it won't be

meanwhile, listen up, business travelers. airlines in america projecting that 47.5 million u.s. passengers will fly globally during the winter holiday travel season this average will take to the skies each day 2.5 million over a span of 18 days ending before christmas and after new years. the busiest travel days are expected to be the weekends before and after christmas the lightest christmas eve, new year's eve and new year's day. the problem is that nobody can really travel on the days you have to travel >> so you are around this year, right? >> i'm around. i'm here this year, the week of christmas. >> christmas tree, christmas

tree yes. absolutely i'll show you some pictures. >> we did too. the whole place smells wonderful. >> don't you love that >> i do. >> we'll show you some pictures. as you know, i am a christmas loving jew wweere talking about sedaka it means charity is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley.

tv advertising had its sharpest fall this year since the recession. that's awful overall ad revenue climbed, it was due to digital sales growth according to a report released yesterday. joining us to talk about the health of advertising, the ceo of publisus. the global tie is growing. if you want to do certain things, tv is still the place. it is just that there are other things you can do that grow quickly. >> absolutely. you are seeing the connection between broadcast of brands to consumers. that connects most closely with

digital communication. advising per se as an industry is starting to reexamine the score purpose and to make somebody aware of the brand and build the narrow story telling with the familiar jingle now they are starting to say, we have to do more than make the promise and deliver the promise. the part of the company i represent focuses on that second piece. how do you make someone's experience of the brand count more than what the brand is saying about itself? >> are we getting more narrow? i'm back to tv again can you find the right distribution pipe or channel to make it narrowed or do you go to the super bowl to launch a new product to everybody >> the super bowl is great, you have a live audience

you are getting narrowed casting with the right data and context. addressable tv starting to do that tv advertising is watched more on youtube than on tv. it is really interesting question about whether youtube is any different than a typical tv channel. >> so facebook and google , those are the places that's where all of this digital advertising is facebook is never going to give up on political advertising, will they? >> well, for them it started as a free speech issue. >> no, it's money. >> they're where a lot of the political discourse is happening although online advertising, amazon has taken a big bite out of the facebook and gaggle play in terms of people starting to recognize that a lot of people who are shopping for stuff are starting their searches on amazon as opposed to facebook and google you have another player that's got a big, meaningful piece of the action.

>> advertising, growing at what point in terms of still growing across all platforms >> absolutely growing significantly. >> significantly >> okay. >> nice to see you. >> thank you. >> we've got a lot more coming up on "squawk box" this morning. softbank pulling the plug on vearly a $300 million instment that story right after the break.

welcome back to "squawk box. softbank pulling out of its investment in wag and it ended in an internal memo viewed by cnbc they're selling their stake in the dog walking company and giving up two seats on the board. this morning talking about tech,

senior tech correspondent erica pandi from axios is joining us what's going on with softbank. >> this is a difficult time. i would imagine their investment strategy is under heavy scrutiny right now. i think what you're seeing here is soft bank trying to be a little bit cautious and trying to get ahead of things and prevent another wework from happening. >> you think wag was going to be another wework >> i don't it's hard to tell. it's a gamble, right so softbank is known for taking big bets and big risks on companies like uber, slack, wework, that hasn't -- as we've seen this past year, that hasn't really worked out for them as well as they might have hoped. now i think they're kind of rethinking things a bit. >> my question though for erica on the same topic is what happens -- if softbank fundamentally has to change its business model, does that

fundamentally change whether these investments are going to work at all? >> first talking about wag, in terms of softbank, this is a relatively small deal so it's not as big of a story as the wework thing, but i think we're definitely going to see softbank change things up the smartest way i've heard this explained to me, a lot of these companies, uber, wework, wag were kind of subsidizing this urban millennial lifestyle and softbank was last money in on them when softbank pulls out it's hard to find more money to follow it. >> quick question for both of you. erica, i know you've been thinking of tesla recently if you look at what's happening with this truck, do you think it's going to work are we now at a point where -- i mean, people are much more optimistic than they were two weeks ago. >> i mean, i think this truck is one of those things where silicon valley pulls back the curtain and the rest of the country is like, why did you do this but, i mean, you saw elon musk driving around with it it looked pretty cool, but he

did hit something so we'll have to see >> your take >> yeah. i think following what erica said, i think we really have to see. i mean, elon musk is definitely hitting that goal of generating a lot of buzz and getting a lot of attention and getting a lot of eyeballs on this thing. the question will be they have 250,000 pre-orders the question will be can they produce it fast enough to fill those orders. >> final question because we've been debating it, amazon, new york city and this whole headquarters is aoc right or wrong? >> i think this is a very different situation. this is not the same thing as amazon building a second headquarters in new york this is them kind of expanding their operations that they've already hyon going here. >> i'm with you. lisa and erica, thank you guys so much. >> a lot of money. a lot of money. >> back to dog walking. >> a lot of money if you do it right. i think you should do a duty pickup while you're walking the dog, right couldn't you combine everything you need, cradle to

grave dog walking. groom them survey monkey zander lurie is our guest host for the next hour he's bringing a special guest as well. >> a lot of special guests. >> research data just for "squawk box" on uber, peloton and michael bloomberg. >> the guy knows everything.

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trade talks from china to the new nafta. what investors need to know. the fed in focus a two-day meeting. we'll tell you what experts are expecting. plus, this morning's top stories as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. our guest host in becky quick's seat is zander lurie, the ceo of

survey monkey. >> great to be here. >> want to get everybody through u.s. equity futures at this hour to tell everybody where we are in terms of how the market is looking like it's setting itself up we are in the red at the moment. the dow looks like it will open up 26 points s&p 500 off 12 points and the nasdaq looking to open down 43 points got a couple of big stories to tell you about in the trade world this morning investors looking for some progress on two fronts first, there's china and the countdown to sunday's december 15th deadline. that's when the next round of tariffs are set to go into effect on chinese goods. then there's the new nafta and word of a usmca agreement. want to get over to kayla tausche with the latest on both. kayla. >> reporter: andrew, house democrats are studying the final proposal on usmca. a working group gathering as speaker nancy pelosi said that a deal is in fact close. >> we're close

we're not quite finished yet, but we're within range that's the way i would say it. and it is something that hopefully if we can work out the final details -- >> reporter: pelosi also told nbc that she wants to see the implementing language. last night she was on stage with jared kushner, senior advisor to the president, has been shepherding the relationship with mexico. they're traveling to mexico to speak about the changes. mexico's foreign minister said that the negotiating teams will be meeting at noon today to discuss the agreement which it calls teamec getting mexico on board is mandatory after which the white house would send the official language to the whihill the administration is also

heading in a good direction in china talks where he is playing a larger role these days and also said that the administration is keeping everyone on its toes andrew >> dare i ask, was there conversation about impeachment during this panel conversation >> reporter: there was some discussion of impeachment. pelosi was coy, as she usually is, saying that she believes they are relying on the constitution and this is not about partisanship he was asked specifically on usmca why she would give the president a win andshe explained, why not it's the right thing to do that's the first time she's answered that specific question in that way, too, especially as we get this close to a potential vote, andrew. >> kayla, thank you so much. >> we'll see talk is cheap. it's nice for her to say that but -- >> i know how you're betting we'll see. >> you know what i mean?

it's like that other answer she gave, walk the walk. do the usmca could you do at any time. >> let's see where this all goes. >> joining us for more now on what investors should make of all of these trade headlines, katherine rooney vieira. she's head of research at bolta capital markets and zander lurie. >> he's got all sorts of mocnkey and surveys on this. >> which is good i mentioned to andrew, katherine, i found out it was december 10th and that the -- >> found out >> yeah, i did. >> research. >> yeah, i did it quickly. looked at the new hampshire. december 15th. what do we know? what do you expect, katherine? it matters, doesn't it >> yeah, talk is cheap, as you said, joe, before. the media seems to move like a yo-yo with every facet of this negotiation which it effectively

is usmca is a very good precedent for a chinese trade deal we're going to get something december 15th, it's a very good chance the tariffs could happen. my question is do the markets even react if they react 2 to 5%, i think it's a buying opportunity. if we get that completion of the tariff scheme because what will subsequently come if we get the tariffs and if the markets react to the down side, joe, is more likely than not words coming out from both sides, we're going to meet in early january. my point is if the markets fall because of a december 15th tariff hike, then it would be a short-term buying opportunity and then reaping the rewards once we get that phase one being discussed yet again in early 2020 >> zander, when we started out and president trump started out with this, i think the numbers were much lower. we've come around to the notion

that maybe china is not our friend some people have actually -- their stance is they already thought we've needed to do something. they've hardened their stances do you see that in the data? from what i can tell, the public is weary of trade wars but are they behind the idea of taking on china >> so the chinese -- >> here's -- >> this is for zander. thanks >> sorry to interrupt. the china issues tend to go down party lines. we did a large survey of small business users and what we're hearing is that small businesses are increasingly weary of the trade war. they are increasingly hardened by the china issue they're bullish on spending and hiring while they think 65% of small business owners think prices are going to go up, only 38% think jobs are going to come home. it looks like trump supporters on one end -- >> it's weird. when you said down party lines, a lot of times democrats like chuck schumer are more hawkish on china. >> that's the one issue where there does seem to be a lot of alignment that china has not

been a friend to us in business many, many years especially out west where i.p. threats have been under duress from china i do think there is some bipartisan support on pushing back on how china -- >> can i ask you a zeitgeist question when it came to jeff bezos working with the defense department against china it's very interesting because so many companies and individuals, you're in silicon valley, who don't want to get into that business, right? they say there's ethical issues and so many other things, but yet i'm not sure, do they or do they not support this sort of larger sort of war either economic or cyber war with china? >> well, it's an interesting question when you see company walkouts out of companies whose company does business with the united states government. >> right. >> that's a pretty challenging position where employees are putting their foot down to say you can sell our software to x, y, z different countries but you

can't -- >> china. >> you can't -- >> this is why i was thinking about it. >> you can enable china and deal with china, but we don't want -- you know, don't give any money to our aerospace companies or defense companies? maybe we should throw rocks at isis next time they take over. >> no, this is why i was thinking about it. used to be we talked about this yesterday, josh made the question about russia -- the u.s. versus russia there was a whole sort of view that you wanted to support -- >> that's such a stupid idea there's always someone there's always someone that we need to worry about or we -- how about building patriot missiles for israel's defense. >> the point is because of our economic ties -- >> you need to worry about iran. >> it isn't in the zeitgeist. >> becky usually occupies this seat negotiating with you two? >> i think the political divide has permeated business and you see employees getting particularly sensitive doing business with the government that they don't support. in the silicon valley we have a

population that largely does not support. >> we've heard they're like '60s activists. i watched "easy rider" again and the guy doing tai chi. he had a millennial beard, millennial haircut, he was spewing millennial trite, ridiculous, unworkable -- >> a boomer. >> i knew you were going to say -- >> you're watching too much silicon valley. >> no, i haven't seen it. >> he's on that show, too. >> which guy >> can i jump in here, joe i just have to add something in here apart from partisan politics, i think your millennial comments are always hysterical. december of last year the market fell 20% the market fell because the trade apocalypse was supposed to take down not just the u.s. economy but the global economy what have we seen since then import prices dropping inflation decelerating real wages gaining the u.s. consumer has not felt

the pinch that everyone said she was going to feel because of trump's tariffs. this is not a partisan issue this is the fact that if you look at the data, 20% of what the u.s. consumes both for imports of goods and services is imported of which 20% comes from china. these numbers are insignificant for the u.s. economy they're significant for the chinese economy, which is 30% of their gdp is tied to export. in the u.s. it's 10. the point is we have the negotiating power. i think something is going to get done and i think we need to be wary of over estimating and exaggerating the impact of tariffs on the u.s. economy. >> from top down you're fairly bullish on the extension of the rally that we're seeing then in stocks >> yeah. i think there's other risks. i think the manipulation of risk assets by global central banks is a huge risk negative interest rate policy. look, that's a huge risk is it a near-term risk i don't know maybe the fed could not cut,

doesn't sound as dovish. the other risk is politics you could get a left winger come in and clinch the nominee. that's not priced in, it's just not. >> katherine, thank you. zander is going to be with us. have you done a survey -- i saw a survey on how many people have been exposed to ageism i think it was almost about 70 or 80% of respondents said yes would you say -- you heard what he said, okay, boomer. can i write that down as part of problematic behavior at this point? was he kidding or what do you think i should -- have you seen that where ageism is -- >> i think to express your specific concern with andrew, there is some taped evidence of it you will have exhibit a in court, your honor. >> okay, mr. generation, what are you? generation x. >> gen x. >> gen z.

>> they're my kids they're fine. >> give them ten years >> yeah, right that's when it happens there's that window of -- >> no, but there is a very specific concern amongst this gen z and they have vocal concerns and they share them we see this in the workplace culture. they want companies to stand up for -- >> the gen zs? >> that's the millennials. >> gen zs are like "risky business" what do you want to do i want to make a lot of money. >> this morning's biggest stock movers the names you need to know before the opening bell. be sure to subscribe to our squawk podcast interviews, behind the scenes access hear what zander says during the commercial breaks. that's not true. look for us on apple podcast or your favore dct p. ay tunedap grandmother's doctor. we can do the screening at her house. hi.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning some corporate news to share with you shares of stitch fix are surging. online styling service reported a breaking quarter with expectations of the laws it reported better than expected revenue. shares of chewy are going in the opposite direction this morning. the online pet product seller lost 20 cents per share for the fiscal third quarter that loss was four cents wider

vail resorts reporting a smaller than expected quarterly earnings season pass sales for the upcoming ski season are up 17% from a year ago. that's the epic pass, sorkin fas is on the icahn pass competitive issue on which pass you want these days. >> share any -- >> pics? >> tree banana things? >> we can. xander -- i'm not identifying with you but what am i >> you're a generation joe, clearly a class of one. >> generation joe. that's cool, isn't it? i like that. my own show i may call it generation joe you know what i'm saying >> are you looking for your own show >> networks go crazy for that. >> yeah. coming up, a future sobriety you're going to have to wear shades. >> come every day. >> yeah. warby parker ceo comes up with the decision to stay private or

go public.

welcome back to "squawk box. a couple of headlines this morning that could back the theory there's a bubble brewing in private market valuations

here it goes tiger global cut its valuation of ecigarette giuliani labs to 19 at the end of december. they valued jewel at $38 billion. softbank pulled out of wag.the r they valued jewel at $38 billion. softbank pulled out of waat ther they valued jewel at $38 billion. softbank pulled out of wag.the r they valued jewel at $38 billion. softbank pulled out of wag neil bloom men that will en parker is here you are here wearing your glasses. i said, are you wearing your glasses? you came out with contact lenses so this is like a big deal for you. >> it was great. our biggest sort of brand launch since we launched in 2010. our decision to launch contacts was thanks in part to this man and some of the research that we

did through survey monkey. we were able to understand what our customers want and over 40% of our customers also wear contact lenses. >> i want to get back to the warby story. i want to talk about private market valuation and what's going on in your space because there's been such development of is this a consumer -- direct to consumer product that seems to be working we were talking about the peloton ad you think this is working for peloton? >> a lot of press helps raise awareness can help drive sales. >> right >> and a lot of the folks there, including chief brand officer and she's not sexist, but it's important when you're doing creative that you get a lot of different perspectives before you launch but there is a lot of attention being placed to this ad. >> right to the larger piece and the real reason i was going to peloton in this whole direct to consumer thing, you have private companies that seem to have enormous valuations and somehow they get into the public market and we now realize there's a new

appreciation that maybe these things don't work the same way what is it were investors wrong the first time were private investors wrong public investors looking for something else or is something else happening >> if you look at where the equity gains have come over the last 20 years, they're primarily driven by the united states and within the u.s. market it is tech internet and soft wear is the number one industry we export out of this country right now. private investors have been the beneficiary for a long time. funds that got access to great companies like warbyb. parker. today's market is more discerning if your gross margins are down in the 30s or 40s you're not going to generate the robust cash flow. >> neil, you are a private unicorn. you're on the board of another private unicorn, all birds you're on the board of sweet green as well. is sweet green a unicorn

>> it is. >> a stable of unicorns. the question is over the past six months has this re-valuation that's happened in the public markets, is there a new valuation happening in the boards and other boards that you're on saying, okay, we have to rethink the sort of growth story versus profit story versus how we're going to think about this >> yeah, the pendulum is definitely swinging from -- it seems like it had gone a little too far to growth only at the expense of profitability at warby parker we've believed in growth. improving every metric in the business last year was our first full year of profitability. our first full year being cash flow positive so if you manage your business appropriately and not try and swing for the fences every single day at the expense of sort of long-term profitability, then you can sort of maintain un corn status, whatever that may mean.

>> go ahead. >> i think if you look over the last ten years you took on this sleepy industry that was dominated by a monopolmonopoly started direct to consumer now in this retail apocalypse you are opening 100 stores around the world maybe talk to us about where the journey the company has been on over the last ten years. you seem to be a salmon swimming upstream. >> for us it's just what do customers want how do we deliver exceptional customer experiences and great value? when we started warby parker less than 1% prescription glasses were sold online now it's 5%. we're the main piece of that, the main driver of it. we want to be where our customers are. if we're able to create a great experience, then they'll come in. >> how much do you think it was about creating this brand though because there's such brand equity at this point with warby. you also can go online and there's so many people trying to knock off what you do.

>> all these pictures are we're the warby parker of x. fill in the industry >> i think a lot of people get it wrong though because to be the warby parker you have to provide great value. $500 product at $95. great customer service our score has been in the 80s since inception. you have to have a brand that's relevant glasses are a core part of the person's identity. >> do you think glasses will always be part of people's core identity now that you're getting into contacts all of these things, 25 years from now will people -- >> if you ever go public will that be a risk factor in the s1? >> i don't think so. lasix has been around for a long time people still wear glasses. wearables is real but i think we're ten years away from something that is really functional and has a strong use

case and even once it is something that people wear regularly, it's got to look good >> what's important about your culture base what's important about building it >> you have to live your values every single day if you're going to create great shareholder value and great customer experiences you have to retain great team members. they have to be able to bring their whole selves to work every day and you have to set the tone and we're also an environment right now where it's really easy to offend somebody so we -- >> okay. this is back to the okay boomer. >> bring joe to workday. >> yeah. >> so what's going on? do you think there's a fundamental shift versus what the employees are expecting? is that real do you see that? >> it's real there was always an expectation that you should come to work and feel a sense of belonging but

that expectation, yeah, is more heightened in today's environment and it's also able to sort of -- those voices are thankfully able to be heard more loudly now >> right >> it's important for us to make sure that everybody has a seat at the table so that way we do create inclusive experiences. >> you have to come back. >> don't knuckle under the pc police, okay stay strong. >> okay. >> and the glasses, the model clark. >> clark. >> percy is the hot one this season >> yes. >> i have a pair of percy's. >> we were in the other day, it was like $700. i'm like, son, these things cost literally -- >> you should -- >> i know, i should have the markup on the luxonica, whatever it is -- >> monopoly, call it what it is. >> they're gougers the gougers versus --

>> can't ask for that kind of advertising. >> no, you can't thank you, neil. thank you for all you do. >> thank you. fed chair jay powell will -- $600 for the lepss no, for the frames these crappy little frames. >> that's the whole business i know i know >> warbyparker.com >> what the experts predict and what investors need to know when "squawk box" comes back. plus, we're replacing these -- each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. but with opportunity comes risk. and to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. we help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage interest rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. all so they can manage their risks and move forward. it's simply a matter of following the signs. they all lead here. cme group - how the world advances.

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welcome back to "squawk box. live at the nasdaq market site the fed kicking off a two-day meeting. steve liesman joins us at the table with the cnbc fed survey results. >> exclusive results >> exclusive fed survey. >> thank you, andrew bears and policy makers hibernate. that's the expectation is a long period of -- if you did this survey for ten years you would come up with weird stuff to continue to make it entertaining here's the outlook for fed-sp

fed-spectations. only 48% think there will be a rate cut next year the average time for that rate cut or when that finally happens is in june so six months of hold is the forecast i want to show you how much stimulus there is in the system now or how much easing there's actually been. you guys go back to our fed survey in december 2018. the expectation for the funds rate in 2020 was 2.9%, call it 3. we are now at 1.625 in the actual rate and the expectation for the end of 2020 is just 1.5% i can show you this more strikingly if you look back to december 2018 when the funds rate was 2.1% and they thought it was going to 2.7, 2.8 go to the next -- where we are now, at 1.6 thinking we're at 1.5% you know, the averages sometimes hide conflict or disagreement

beneath the surface. kathy bostjancic from oxford said the risks to the outlook are high richard sichel says the u.s. economy continues to be stronger than many observers think. it keeps climbing a wall of worry. we have estimates, guys, for growth next year that range from negative 0.5% to 3%. so there is a market out there in the 2020 forecast, as i'm sure you know there is, in the outlook for the stock market >> what's the standard deviation? that's not good. can you get involved with this or are you no better can you help 0.5 -- >> negative 0.5. >> that's what i meant. >> you can drive one of those new tesla trucks through that, i think. >> i think the big -- >> what does our professional pollster think here? >> you had a parade of

economists on here a year ago forecasting a massive recession. you don't bring those folks on anymore. >> if we didn't bring people on who were wrong, it would be me and andrew every day. >> are you sure about that, joe? are you sure you'd be included in it? >> pretty sure >> just a joke i don't either i don't either i was pretty sure the recession thing was overblown. i think that's proven to be true the slowdown was a good bet. >> let's get to a couple of guys who have made the cut. julian emanuel and lou alexander. former counselor to secretary -- treasury secretary tim geithner. so you've been pretty good, i think, julian. although you waffle a little i've seen you go back and forth. your basic stance has been bullish. >> yes we think next year's going to be a good year as well. we're looking for 34.50. >> you've had your moments. >> if you think about it, because the market -- >> recession. >> no, not recession moments

we have never thought there was going to be a recession. >> tariff -- >> no, trading moments, yeah tariff, more volatility, but the difference is is the fed is now behind the money markets in our view and that is dampening volatility they're going to do their best to keep the liquidity flowing, not interest rates as we've spoken about, and that to us is one of the elements that's going to cause a better year next year. >> at one point you were at 3100 for year end on the s&p but then you -- i think you kind of got -- you got a little worried about that forecast at one point, did you not >> 3,000 the whole time. 3,000 the whole time. >> above that. that was at about 2750, 2800 when you told me it could still be 30 so i'm trying to give you credit. >> i'll take it. >> don't push back. >> we'll take it. >> so minus point -- you're the economist in the group >> i am. >> minus .5 or 3 plus zero >> we're in the middle, at 1.5,

2. look, i did work in graduate school that showed you the forecast on a year out of gdp was 2 percentage points. >> standard deviation. >> beautiful. >> plus or minus either way. >> i think the forecast last year that the economy was going to slow was pretty clear that was a function of more than anything else of fiscal policy waning and the trade stuff having an effect i think as you look going forward, trade is still the big issue. i think the rest of the world looks a little better than it did at the middle of this year when those recession -- >> the u.s. is right, too. it's been coming in a little stronger, hasn't it? >> yeah. our tracking model has it about 1.8 for q4 basically you had some noise in the data because of the gm strike october was weak, november looked a little better i discount the better november data as a part of that the economy is doing fine and we expect it to do fine next year.

>> so it was trade and -- so in your view -- there's two kinds of people in the world, people that blame the fed and people that don't you don't think the fed got too tight? you don't think that was a part of the problem >> i don't think that was a big part of the problem. i don't think it was crazy where they were. look, with 20/20 hindsight would you have redone it in december undoubtedly. i don't think they were wildly out of line in terms of where they ended up. >> julian, a little birdie is -- >> i got the note from the little birdie, both of us. >> there's big put buying a year out on the s&p on election worries. it's bipartisan. it's right left and center nobody knows so -- >> well, all we know is is that if you try to hedge past the election term, the price of out of the money puts versus out of the money calls really reflects, you know, i'd almost call it panic. >> is there volume there >> there is every now and then

and put it this way, it's one of those markets where if you want to find volume, you can find volume but in general it's just a reflection of this very, very deep concern. >> normally high put call ratios are bullish when people are betting against a down side, usually it's good. is this contrarian >> yes, it's contrarian. >> not going to be a problem >> well, our view is saying if you want to get market exposure taking the other side of that trade is a very, very good proposition. >> joe, can i just ask you -- >> no matter how much money buffet made selling puts you get a lot of money on puts >> that's what it would be i want to ask lou on the fed, do they have it right here? is the hibernation idea six months to go to sleep and wake up next summer and see what's going on is that the best bet here? >> i think so. they've put themselves in a position where they don't have to do a lot for a while. there's a lot of stimulus in the

pipeline if you look at long rates, they were at 3, now they're at 1.8. that's another aspect of the interest rate stimulus sort of in the pipeline. look, if things go bad, if the trade negotiations blow up, they may have to do more. they'll wait to see the data weaken as you said, we're doing fine now. i think they're in a good place. >> i've been consistently bullish so you can just take your -- >> joe, get me back and remember yesterday when i didn't have a comeback remember yesterday i didn't have a comeback >> that was two days ago. >> you blamed it on that you had just gotten up >> it was early. >> as if you'd be just as quick if you had been up earlier which i -- >> do you know the response to the shrimp store called and they were out of you, that was a comeback that was a stupid comeback a half hour later. >> no, it was pretty good. >> you liked that one? >> it wasn't the shrimp -- >> the ocean called and they're out of --

>> thank you, guys we have to save some time. i want to talk to zander lurie bringing us new data on uber and the biggest risks you do not want to miss when "squawk" returns in a moment.

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our guest host is zander lurie and he has fascinating new data for us about uber what have you got? >> we did a large survey in london and new york specifically, and the ride hailing services, specifically uber, have been under duress in the news. >> right. >> they are wildly popular with consumers. so three, four to one to your second and third best ride sharing options whether it's transit. >> weird, even in new york where there's a cab, you just go -- you just hail a cab versus going through the whole process. >> before or after the new safety report came out >> just last week so it was concurrent with the safety report we asked about safety. people feel safe in ride hailing services if you use uber, 92% of people feel safe in uber. while the sexual assault stats are horrific and scary, they did

1.2 billion rides. in new york transit alone over 530 sexual assault cases were reported it's a horrific crime but people who ride with uber and lyft feel safe. >> let me ask you the more complicated kwi. if you are dara at uber or the guys at lyft, do you think you can raise prices because people love it so much? the reason i'm asking is there's a fundamental model question and investors are trying to figure it out >> i think investors are trying to figure out are these durable business models with sustainable unit and if you find you can't generate a profit, you're going to raise prices because you're not going to go out of business. these companies have to get to generate cash flow. >> you think the love is there is what you're saying? >> people are addicted to these services i mean, the london market has gone haywire with their recent regulations but this is what people want to ride.

>> you think they love it so much that actually the regula regulators in london can't stop it >> history of regulators is to accommodate to what people want. i would imagine there will be a resolution in uber's favor or something will come along to disrupt that. >> so the medallion's worth what now? >> new york city medallion >> i'm surprised in a really crowded urban area it's still uber because it's a pain there are so many ubers. are you my uber? and a cab is right there i can see out where you can't get a cab. >> and that's when people like uber the most. >> so it is out there. >> we're going to take a pause and come back and talk to him about bloomberg's chances. >> john o'brien. >> hold on to answer your question, a medallion in new york city is now $200,000. >> are you on ebay. >> down from a million down from a million just in 2013. >> so even here? >> yup >> that's -- yeah, there's people that are trying to help these guys out, i think.

>> the good folks at google said it >> all right john brian -- >> yes, john brian >> i'm so confused now the race for the white house will michael bloomberg be a game changer?

woman: friction points, those obstacles that limit a company's growth. i try to find companies that turn these challenges into opportunities. it's these unique companies with creative business models that will generate value for our investors. that's why i go beyond the numbers.

welcome back to "squawk box. we are 329 days away from the 2020 election. what investors need to be watching operation hope chairman john hope bryant is here. zander lurie is here >> whenever i want to get a crowd in rural america, i say a billionaire's coming all of this stuff about we hate billionaires is just wrong this whole concept we hate rich people no, we hate rich people until we become rich. what we hate is a gamed system if he can show us how to make it, a bottom up strategy versus what we have now as a top down strategy, he's going to get the hearts and minds of pieces he's missing of the american public the fact that he's not accepting

campaign contributions is not a necessarytiv negative, it might be a positive we have to stop thinking the past is the future they reset perceptions about everything, andrew, and i think that frankly he may be on to something. he's his own guy he's run the country, new york city he is a proper philanthropist. it is about getting fishing poles out of people, not just getting fish he tells you what he thinks. it rubs some people the wrong way, but at least you know what he thinks. that authenticity has a currency he's going to drive the far left and right to the table. >> this is not the conventional wisdom in terms of we were talking about predicted, betting lines. what is the polling world that you live in say about all of this >> we just did a large survey, thousands of respondents the results are not too dramatic other than sanders, warren, and

biden are tracking right in line with the president the president has a hardened 40% base republicans are lined up behind the president still in the low 90s. and all three of those leading democratic candidates are right at or a couple of points above the president. bloomberg is right at or below the president. >> is that a fair way to look at it what you have to do is go state by state. >> go state by state bloomberg is about to launch an unprecedented campaign i think the word billionaire is not the appropriate term for michael bloomberg. he's given away $8 billion to financial and educational institutions billionaire, it's like calling him a millionaire. >> he doesn't have to win the national he needs to win the democratic nomination that might be harder than winning the national election. >> we'll find out in three months how effective he can be. >> that's a fundamental question. >> you've seen the core of the democratic party you have eyes. you don't have to have a survey to see where the democratic party is. >> this might be the new get it

done party, joe. they've seen the republican party, the democratic party. i think what people want today is a get it done today in some ways, mr. trump is a donaldcrat he's his own thing for better or for worse and i think that jobs, economic prosperity, some sense of the future, people are fearful, man and i think that if you have somebody that can then appeal to, you know, half of america who's living from paycheck to paycheck, my clients, and say, but maybe, just maybe i can be him or her and it's a prosperity, a pitch forks agenda right now we've got pitch forks or prosperity, which i think is a false choice go ahead. >> when you saw the numbers friday. >> i saw numbers on my success they said i wouldn't make it >> no, the jobs numbers on friday. >> jobs numbers. >> you've got to run against the economy. it's a long way off. >> i was going to ask you about -- >> we're in agreement on this one, joe. >> the african-american

community thinks today about president trump advice a have i the jobs numbers and the low unemployment rate and all the things that he would argue he has done for the african-american community weighed against what i imagine are comments and thoughtson th other end and how you think that plays? >> i think that the perception is that success of administrations fixed some challenges and he's riding a wave he did some things to smooth it out. i don't think anybody in the african-american community, with all due respect, gives him credit for whatever job they have if you go into the south side of chicago, 40% of unemployment, south side of detroit, 27% of unemployment, in atlanta it's a third world country. >> you saw robert johnson's comments >> yeah. yeah >> okay. >> he was unequivocal that it's been good for african-americans, the economy. >> i think the economy is good >> he based it on donald trump's

policies as well he said he's been doing a good job. >> i don't think we radically disagreed but he asked me a very different question is the african-american community giving the president credit for their job and the answer is absolutely not. >> okay. i would say he's -- >> go talk to my clients easy i've got 4 million clients. >> who wakes up and thanks the president for their job anyway. >> let me ask you a separate question. >> they think they're on hustle for their job. >> this goes to mayor bloomberg who i know you appear to be supportive of. >> i'm supportive of common sense. >> my secondary question is, this also goes to the african-american experience in new york, one of the great critiques of mayor bloomberg's time in the city was stop and frisk and when and how he ultimately apologized for it but obviously that happened three or four weeks ago when arguably and depending on -- >> just say it when he had to say it he finally

did it dancing around you love this guy so much. >> i love you so much. >> i know. >> joe, let's go back to your comment. >> yeah. >> the president gets credit for the good stuff because he's the president and i'm giving him credit for some policies that actually helped the economy. >> ight. >> let me make that very clear that's not the question that was asked of me. the question was asked of me, how does the african-american community perceive the president. >> would you acknowledge the numbers are better than two or three years ago? >> they would argue they were trending that way -- people i know would argue they were trending that way mostly anyway. >> okay. >> and they don't give this president credit. >> he's definitely selling it -- >> he's selling everything. >> that he's rising in the -- i think there's some -- there's at least something to the notion that he ran on where he said you know what you've gotten to this point. give me a shot give me a shot i think some people have decided maybe he's -- >> i think the black community doesn't believe he's giving them

a shot he's taking a shot most times it's the perception that he's slapping them, not helping them irrespective of the economic numbers i'm going to say if you look at the underserved community numbers, it's like third world countries. he knows what i'm talking about, he does the data we have two worlds we have the world you and i live in and the world everybody else is living in. >> i didn't start in 2016. >> we're not disagreeing i'm answering the question. >> we've got to go, my friend. i have to thank you for being here and thank you for being here for a fabulous hour come on back. >> i think you need to thank me for being around here too. not for nothing. coming up, santa fe ceo will be here. sfx: [phone ringing] you still have service? call the insurance company it's them, calling us. it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house i don't see any hovering

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stocks wagging lower. >> we're close we're not quite finished yet >> sanofi ending the focus on diabetes and adding to the cancer portfolio

the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. doing a little christmas shopping right now, i think, literally. you do some christmas and some -- we were going to show some beautiful tree. >> show some trees later. >> you have a beautiful tree. >> we do we do. >> you have santa claus hats. >> i know. i love you. >> we get into the whole thing. >> you do? i love christmas christmas is a fun -- it is. it's the most wonderful time of the year someone once said >> i heard. >> have you? u.s. equities are down 133

they're down about 100 at the beginning of the show. they went down almost 150. we were down almost over 100 after 330 plus or whatever it was on friday on the jobs number we're still very close to all-time highs there is a december 15th tariff announcement or some type of resolution or whatever you want to call it kicking the can down the road something is coming up in a couple of days so we'll see. we'll get two articles of impeachment today and it can be voted on as early as -- how's that for the week before christmas? a little bit weird but they're going. >> depends >> treasury yields -- >> some people think it's -- >> 1.8%. yeah, some people -- i know who you're talking about >> some people think it's cole coal in their stocking and other people think it's a gift. >> we have both of them here >> we are watching shares of

agilent. bill ackman is taking a new position alphabet is making in addition to its board of directors, acclaimed biologist frances arnold is joining the board. she's the third woman on alphabet's 11-person board stitchfix reporting results better than expected for its latest quarter take a look at the stock you're going to see it up doing quite well there they broke even on the quarter 6 cent per share loss. revenue also beating estimates and the stock now up about 12% wow. she comes from a long line of really impressive scientists just looking -- i'm just looking at some of her princeton degrees and at cal tech now. just amazing young lady to -- not overly

young but to win a nobel prize in 2018. the markets remain focused on trade we're moving closer to december 15th deadline, which we were just talking about for more tariffs on $156 billion worth of chinese goods. at the same time though we may soon see some progress on a usmca deal in congress here's house speaker nancy pelosi at a wall street journal event. >> we're close we're not quite finished yet, but we're within range that's the way i would say it. and it is something that hopefully if we can work out the final details -- >> joining us now, rufus jurksin and kim forest we're also hearing just anecdotally about aflcio, there were some meetings going on. some people pointing out that might be the last -- the last thing that was really necessary

to get this moving in earnest, kim. can you tell us anything about whether that is true is trump on board? >> well, i'm here in the old center of steel, but i don't have anything -- any clarity to that but it does seem reasonable that that might be something that's holding this up. i know that both aluminum and steel imports were something that the trump administration wanted to make sure had the proper level coming through both canada and mexico. >> rufus, what's -- what do you think, is there politics involved here? will we get something near term on this eventually >> oh, yeah. politics involved in a trade agreement being finalized? for sure it looks like labor's probably the last hurdle. it seems to me that bob lighthizer has a pretty good deal with the house democrats and he's in -- headed to mexico

city to finalize it with the mexicans who apparently are on board. so, you know, if you have something that trump and pelosi can agree to, i mean, i think labor is under a lot of pressure to go along. this is certainly a better deal from their point of view from the existing nafta. >> you know, there's always politics, but we're in such a hyper partisan atmosphere right now. were you surprised when speaker pelosi said, yeah, i'm ready to do it because it's the right thing to do? do you take her at her word, rufus? >> yeah. i think their calculation is that they want to demonstrate that they're able to move forward on other issues even where it involves cooperating with trump if they think it's the right thing to do. they're obviously concerned about whether labor would come out against it but, you know, i think they've managed to get enough into this deal that is of interest to labor that it'll probably go through.

>> by what month, kim? >> well, i think the end of this month looks really promising, and i think both sides need a win and really they want to capture that voter and pretty much all the voters work so how can you be against the american worker how? >> right do you think that it would -- we would see the effect on the labor statistics we report on the first friday of every month? would this be a positive and how much more can we really get, kim? >> i think trade is really the incremental driver of the next bump up in everything, and that includes jobs as well as the market. >> so china trade and usmca trade, you mean? >> absolutely. those are our two biggest partners we're focused on china for big reasons. practically we do a whole lot more trade with our neighbors to the north and the south so, you know, getting that back on

track. that could be an incremental boost and i think both sides have their eyes on the prize, which is the presidency. and jobs, jobs, jobs has always been a focus, right? >> yeah. >> that's what presidential candidates love to talk about. >> rufus, what do you think? >> yeah. i think that this will give the democrats a good argument that they've made the template for trade agreements much more friendly to labor concerns and to the environment i think it gives president trump obviously good argument that he got a major deal through i think really the big issue now though is the china fight because, you know, in terms of the overall impact on the world economy it's much, much bigger yeah, mexico is important but, you know, china's the second largest economy in the world and so this fight between the u.s. and china now becomes the focal point really of what happens to trade in the next year >> all right we have to say good-bye, kim thanks >> thank you. >> rufus, there was a -- there

was a governor, joe kernen, of indiana. andrew sorkin's our dime a dozen. that's why he sticks the ross in there. do you know, is there another rufus jurksa ever? that would be cool to be the only one in the history of the world. do you know? >> i haven't found another one yet. but if there's another one out there, please get in touch with me. >> do you think there's another rufus -- >> pretty iconic. >> you may be the most unique individual on the planet. >> iconic name >> i think you need to thank your parents. >> i do every day. >> you do? >> we do, too. thank you. >> talking about iconic. when we come back, two of the most iconic roll exs in the word go up for auction tonight in new york city. we will tell you who wore them then the next chapter of one of the world's biggest pharma companies, paul hudson from

sanofi will talk with us about a $2 billion acquisition that was announced yesterday. why it's ending research into diabetes and more. stay tuned, you're watching quk x"ig he cnbc.

pharmaceutical giant sanofi has a new ceo and he's shaking things up. they will talk about their latest strategy which will focus on cancer drugs and not diabetes meg tirrell joins us. >> it's a major shift for one of the largest makers of insulin. paul hudson took the job september 1st and now is laying out his new strategy they will focus on dupixent. they will focus on vaccines and cancer drugs it announced a $2.5 billion deal to acquire synthorx. the french company said its consumer health care business which sells allegra, gold bond

and icy hot will change. investors so far responding positively to the move this morning boosting sanofi's shares >> meg, stay right there joining us, paul hudson, ceo of sanofi it's great to have you on the show this morning, paul. and thank you, meg, for bringing us in a nutshell, can you map out a guide for the future for sanofi in terms of diabetes and cancer both and how it might be diverging at this point? >> well, good morning to all of you. thank you for having me on the show it's a big moment for us as an organization because we are, of course, as you said, running out our strategy we've got a proud history in diabetes and we've contributed a significant amount i think going forward choosing to focus on areas where we have breakthrough science where we can really change and transform

lives is the most important thing on our agenda so we'll break into oncology, to breast cancer, to rare diseases including all the way out to parkinson's. we'll take on many different diseases including multiple sclerosis. at the heart of it, sanofi is a bit of a hidden gem, well kept secret we have great science and history and it's time to focus our work and so that we can deliver the proud next chapter for the company. i'm frankly thrilled to be leading the business and humbled to be responsible to navigate the next chapter. >> i'd like to ask you about exiting diabetes and k5 cardiovascular disease is it that the science wasn't there? that the commercial models don't be work? you're also pulling back, i think, pulling back in your cholesterol drug nobody debates the science

behind the drug but it's been a commercial failure really. what does it say about those markets not being appealing if your internal science wasn't good >> so, you know, as i said, we've contributed a lot to cardiovascular and indeed in diabetes some of the access challenges that new break through medicines face in cardiovascular are a challenge itself that wouldn't put us off we're determined to bring breakthroughs and bring them to patients because they change lives. what we're looking for now is to say if we were to be in those areas it would have to be truly transformational and it would have to be demonstrating significant value to payers and health care systems. that's where we're focusing our energy whilst we've contributed a lot to what has transformed lives, it's time to put our efforts into areas where the next breakthroughs will come. >> the state ofcancer research right now and the big pharmas

versus some of the niche players, is your recent acquisition a model for how sanofi will approach things or in house do you have some promising molecules or you have to go outside to some of these niche players that a lot of them are up on route 128, i know? >> so, you know, i think we're proud of the r&d function that we have. we've, again, developed some incredible medicines i think we have to realize the world we live in now, that science can be bought on a laptop with a small group of people such is the processing power that exists. we have to be open minded to it. it's not like should it be inside or should it be outside it's what is going to transform and change lives how could it be used in combination? what could it mean for the patients what could it mean for an organization and what could follow the deal that we had accepted on

monday was really a statement of we think the future of immunooncology could be aisle 2 based. we think we need to participate. we think the synthorx is the best model this is the beauty of the new model. we get to use that in combination with the cd 38 and pd 1 and we get to look more broadly about the combinations i think it's the coming together of brilliance of research that gives the opportunity. meaning you enroll with a new team, a new lead on r&d, we're open minded to how we collaborate that science to do extraordinary things for patients that's the fun part of the job. >> that was a la jolla startup the merck rq was on route 128. both were hotbeds for startups i'm trying to figure out how this works what is the research platform

for synthorx >> look, it's a whole host of tumors it's allowing some tumor types through the treatment that we're -- you know, conceive is almost undruggable, number one what it's allowing is the fact that aisle two and the science around it as a cytokaine is impossible i thin synthorx corrects it, it's sustainable and that platform and how they make that in terms of the dna components is really the transformational piece. that's what we're excited about. >> pretty nice market check on sanofi meg, when's asco. >> in june. >> all the way in june >> the next big one is jpmorgan in january. >> what's working? >> in cancer >> we have to do individual,

each one is different? >> yeah. yeah genetically targeted small molecule is working. and immunooncology is -- >> i wish there were a magic bullet. >> we all do. >> we also need things in cardiovascular disease and diabetes >> well, we do, but i think that might be -- cardiovascular we have a good handle on, don't we? still working on that. people have zero cholesterol now with all of these drugs. not quite. all right. we'll keep working on it >> when we come back, a truly iconic piece of sports and cultural memorabilia going up for auction. in fact, let's have someone else tell you about it. coming up on "squawk box," we're going to auction off my watch, the only watch that i've ever worn. the money that we auction off here will go to kids, it will go to charity, 100% you want to own a watch, you've got a chance, tonight at phillips to y isat abuth wchnd

it's yours when i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson... to help the blind. it is already working in cities like tokyo. my dream is to help millions more people like me.

today's big number

25%. that's how much sales of luxury pre-owned watches make up the overall watch market according to financial services company kepler shevru. some one of a kind watches are said to be auctioned off robert frank has the famous owners you got jack he said "squawk box," i think. >> he did. >> that's his watch. rolex has a long history with the pga and great champions. >> rory's the latest. >> it's one thing for a celebrity or sports guy to own it for a long period this was jack's watch for 50 years. we'll tell you about it. it is considered one of the most famous watches in sports tonight it could be one of the most expensive ever auctioned. jack nicklaus's gold rolex is coming up tonight. watch experts say it could surpass the 17.8 million that

paul newman's rolex fetched in 2018 they have been waiting decades for this to come on the market it is the only one he wore for more than 50 years it was on his wrist for 12 of his 18 major trophy presentations. >> i didn't play golf with a watch on but it came on as soon as i came off the golf course. my watch and wallet came back on to me so every time i'm with a trophy, every time i travel i have a picture of me with the watch. and it was part of me. >> all of the proceeds for this sale will go to his charity, the niklaus children's charity the watch market is expected to top $16 billion this year as the auction houses and online marketplaces like watch box and watch finder attract younger finders. also selling tonight will be marlin brando's stainless steel rolex gmt master which, get

this, he wore in filming "apocalypse now. it has his signature on the back. >> cool. >> it's signed. >> that's pretty awesome >> it's signed on the back. >> what will that go for >> six figures. >> bidding on that will start in the six figures. the niklaus watch will be in the millions the one on the far left is the watch that robert downey jr. wore in "the avengers. >> what will that go for >> 30 to 50 million security. >> is there security with you? >> we have two watch guards. millions of dollars of watches. >> where are they located right now? >> they're waiting right in the back for us to -- >> there's actually an apple watch on there but they pay you to take it -- >> auction off -- how much for mine >> they'll pay you to take it off your hands if you'll wear

that ugly looking thing. >> you have the same -- joe, it's -- that's a yellow gold >> little bit bigger than jacks. >> i wear it when i play golf so maybe that's the problem. >> he took it off. put it in the bag. >> we have to go we have new productivity numbers and so much more we'll bring you those when we come back. thank you, sir ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. seconds away from a fresh look at third quarter productivity. three seconds in fact. rick santelli is at the cme. the numbers, rick. >> yes, our final third quarter read moves from .3 lower to .2 lower. .2 down and unit labor costs move from 3.6 to 2.5 remember, the minus .3 in the rear-view mirror for productivity really does get tossed that was a preliminary read. minus .2 is the weakest since minus 3.5 in december 2015 it was the same as the minus .3 because we haven't had a minus number since then. 2.5 on unit labor costs probably good news. of course, we understand there's

a lot of moving parts with regard to productivity, special sauce for the economy. we are coming in at the 180 mark down a couple of basis points. we reached on a good jobs report first day of a two-day meeting expecting no policy change but overnightly quit at this continuing to garner the market watchers andrew, back to you. >> rick, thank you for that. professors at the table looking very studious at the numbers. >> yeah, just real quick regression or reversion to the mean is what's happening we about 3.5 in the first quarter, 2.5 in the second now minus .2 some of the shine off the forecast for the productivity revolution over time it's doing okay at 1.5

or 1% and then you do the formula. another 1% for population growth and then 2%. >> if you're lucky. >> 2%. >> john says we don't have enough cap ex to get the rise in productivity this is one of those from the department of hope springs eternal, folks there is still 54% of our survey respondents think that's down a lot if you take a look at it we could get a limited trade deal next year, 61% think it's next year 16% say they will not sign any deal at all. moving on to are new tariffs coming no

tariffs will not be additional i will point out, this group of our 43 responses and the market broadly have been more optimistic on trade deal outcomes than have actually come to pass so far 71% say that so far the economic impact of trade is somewhat negative not most negative but very negative is 12%. neutral say 17% not a single response from the outcome of the tariff has been economically positive >> what did paul say about the trade deal >> he was part of the people beginning in the ' 80s and '90s that thought it was good he was part of the people that were wrong in the underlying politics and to a limited extent

the local politics that we've learned. economic research is showing us now that on the localized basis the impact -- the negative impact of trade is worse than we thought. i saw a paper presented within the past year which said it's generational that you have this trade and what the economists initially failed to think about is how daddy or mommy lose their job, how that then moves onto the next generation and the next generation if you go to some of those towns, andrew, that i'm sure you've gone to, where they've closed down the plants, it's geographic implications that matter. >> i want to add another voice into this conversation joining us is betsy stevenson from the ford school of public policy

she's a member of president obama's council of economic advisers good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we were talking about the productivity numbers do you look fondly or positively at where we are right now? >> you know, i think that this has been a remarkable economy. every month we look at job growth and it's been delivering for 11 years it's stunning. there are concerns about the economy, things we need to be worried about. the trade deal is -- the trade issues is one of the concerns we face so is the slowdown that we see in other countries the u.k. just announced this morning that they had no growth at all over the last three months when we start to see, you know, some of our big trading partners, see their growth slow, that's worrisome.

>> didn't we have a similar story close to a year ago for a little bit these fears were in the market and then they weren't? >> yeah. i mean, i -- no, i think that what we're seeing is people have some nervousness there is a chance that things go south but right now things look pretty strong. i think the question is what's the fed looking for? the fed is going to be looking at other countries. >> i'm sorry to interrupt. there's a dow jones headline that the tariffs could be pushed back we've now seen the futures go from at 140 recently i saw 80, now they're in green they're up 9 points or so, now 12 we are ticking higher with each tick on the dow based on u.s. and china trade negotiators, planning for a delay it's at least in the wall street journal. i don't know if this is exclusive. u.s. and chinese trade

negotiations are laying the groundwork for a delay of fresh round of tariffs set to kick in on december 15th according to officials on both sides. they continue to haggle over how to get beijing commitments on u.s. farm purchases. you're laughing at me, sorkin. i know that. you remember the research i was doing earlier. >> your research, you looked at a calendar. >> december 10th. >> and then -- >> i said that december 15th we need -- >> five days away. >> i said we're five days away. >> you have a master's degree in micro biology? >> interdisciplinary science my point is, time's a wasting the market is pretending it's going to be delayed. when are we going to hear that it is? >> i think we should thank -- i want to get to kayla often this. >> quickly betsy, labor economist we're debating the 266,000 jobs

that happened that were announced on friday. where are the workers coming from quick charts, i don't know if you can see them the women have come back to work, 25 to 54 if you look at it the men have not >> yeah, that's -- that's the story -- >> is there endless supply. >> endless supply of women no, we don't have an endless supply of women, but we do see that, you know, women are continuing to come into the labor force. look, the household survey didn't show as strong a growth as the employment survey does. that happens because there's the month-to-month vaguearies. women's labor force participation grows and men's doesn't. that's a long-term story of women are going to college more, they're responding to market incentives more than men are i don't think anybody has a really good answer of why men are so dulled when it comes to responding to market incentives. they're not going to college at

the right rates. they're not coming into the labor force even when the economy's really strong but women are doing the kind of things economists always thought people would do, work more when wages are up go to college more when the college premium rises. this is the same story we've been seeing for two decades. >> betsy, i don't know if you remember, but romney had -- >> there is. i think the problem is employers are working through their binders and they are going to eventually run out >> if you look at the numbers, joe, where are the workers coming from, it is women and -- >> if you put up that chart of men again, we are not back to participation rate i think, betsy, the incentives are wrong. you need a couch with beer i don't know what it is. i'm in danger of making bad jokes here. >> yeah, you've got to be careful. >> the centers may be wrong but also there are issues out there,

the late alan kruger came up with this idea of whether or not it was an opioid issue it's a very critical issue for the market it's hard to talk about demographics in terms of the market if you want to know if strong job growth is going to continue, you have to figure out if there's workers. >> where are the workers going to come from i think the thing that has to happen is wages have to come up. we're going to hit a wall at some point where workers aren't going to continue to come unless they see stronger wage growth. economists have been thinking we were going to hit the wall for basically the past two years so i'm not going to predict we're hitting the wall in the next month, but there is one. i will tell you that there is one we will at some point run out of workers if we don't start raising wages more sharply. >> betsy, thank you for this we do have this breaking news on these china trade talks right now. i want to get back to washington right now to try to understand what's -- what these headlines mean kayla tausche is in d.c.

what have you got? >> reporter: andrew, i've reached out to the u.s. and china discussing ways to extend the tariff deadline beyond this sunday, december 15th. the journal notes that there has been a significant amount of signaling from both sides in recent days that sunday does not mark the end in talks, that there's no arbitrary deadline and that these talks could extent even further as the u.s. tries to get china to live up to the commitments that it made just back in october on those agricultural purchases and as they try to flush out the actual text of this deal. what's unclear is what it means for previous rounds of tariffs and chinese retaliation. china had been pushing for the september 1st tariffs to be removed in addition to this december 15th round of tariffs to be canceled not delayed and it's unclear whether the u.s. has a desire to do that and what china would do then in

response we're still awaiting a little bit more detail on this. certainly it would be viewed as good news by the market that the two sides are discussing this. jared kushner, a senior advisor to the president who has become increasingly involved in the talks just last night said they are headed in a good direction certainly by all public accounts of the administration they do feel that talks have made progress and there has not at least been public signaling about these tariffs going into place but we're waiting hard confirmation from our sources on this side about what the journal is reporting this morning. >> okay. joining us right now to continue this conversation, joe, what have you got >> the other thing we've been talking about, usmca, nancy pelosi said it's the right thing to do, we're going to do it. there's just word hitting that the speaker is going to hold a news conference tuesday on the usmca with the statement to hold a news conference, will that be today? will that be today, peter? yeah, that's going to be today there will be a usmca news

conference that's going to be held today we were talking about it she just said that and i was getting some word that maybe the afl-cio was on board they've been meeting can congressional leaders. he made some comments but if you get labor on board, that would be the last thick you neng you . maybe a double whammy. >>. >> reporter: well, i think the timing is interesting. you have the democrats announcing the articles of impeachment, just an hour later they are holding this press conference on usmca trying to back up the argument that they can legislate and pursue impeachment at the same time that press conference is going to happen two hours before the u.s., mexican and canadian negotiators are meeting in mexico those two countries have to sign off on any final changes is even a senior democratic aide

that i spoke to didn't know exactly what pelosi and chairman neil were going to say clearly they want the optics to show on the democratic side that they can do both of these things at once. >> thank you, kayla. want to continue this conversation and joining us is chris verone our own mike santoli is with us as well. in terms of the technicals, i don't know if you can look at the technicals given that we're now talking about something that's non-technical at all. how do you play the technicals at the time when we're playing the headlines? >> we subscribe to the view that price leads data in this business and price leads news. >> right. >> when you look at the response of the market over the last number of weeks even as hesitation around the china stuff came back into play, the market acted great sentiment doesn't seem like much of a threat. the street is running net short of s&p futures when buy look at the market here, we just broke out of a

two-year range let's not get too cute and buy any weakness when you look at messages of cyclicality that emerged, copper is breaking out. >> in terms of thinking of the china news, santoli, what do you think is baked into the market do you think this was basically already baked in, frankly? >> i think it's largely baked in, but the market needed and craved reassurance about that. that's what the action told you today. in fact, yesterday the market was a little bit soft, a little bit lulling around and the volatility index which basically is a measure of how much down side protection people are buying in the near term, that was going up well beyond what you would have expected and when this headline hit this morning, the vix was above 16 it's now back down towards 15. that just told you that for the next little patch of territory the market is looking to figure out which direction it goes. this december 15th deadline did matter at this level, you know, 3130 on

the s&p 500, less than 1% from an all-time high a few weeks ago, i don't think this is a new unexpected positive catalyst it's just reassurance that the premise of why we got here with this rally is valid. >> i don't necessarily agree i think when you look at the last couple weeks, sku is near record high. investors betting down side protection and we've seen the cfta data net short. that looks to me like a perfect combination or perfect cocktail that people were betting oen a bad outcome. they seem to be getting a better outcome. i think markets rally on that. >> can i throw one other ingredient into the cocktail mix? >> please. >> we saw these -- so many outflows of individual investors and how you think that plays into all of this. >> so the journal did a good piece on that yesterday. pretty remarkable that we're ten years into this and you're still

seeing outflows. the biggest take away is that doesn't seem like the euphoria that greets the bull market. i view that as a positive that you're seeing outflows. >> jim, are you there? let's bring him in from the cme in chicago >> yeah, i'm here. >> obviously down 140. we're up buyers did come into the market on what china or what both of these announcements, do you think? >> the china headline was the one that took us up 15 handles in the s&p i'm amazed that we still react so aggressively. agree with michael on the reassurances part. we agree this is going to happen and that's why we hadn't been trading that poorly over the last few days. i know we did get that blockbuster number on friday to me, the sweet spot is this. the economic data is good. the china thing lingers. i don't think the market would welcome a complete resolution. it would on the short term but i like to think that the market wants to think that's going on

so the fed still has some cover to keep rates low and not to talk about any sort of hawkish tone so i think we're in the sweet spot right here. the market went up 15 ticks on an innocuous headline. you mentioned things the fact that there he is's outflows. i still think things are going higher >> it's interesting. >> all right so we've got a helps and a santoli. he's just sort of commenting he doesn't have an opinion and then you have jurio, you're right in the middle. are you surprised? jim, that's not a big percentage move >> no, but it's the 200th, 250th time we've moved on a china thing. we know that the tendency is to get these headlines and then a matter of hours later sometimes gives one you contradict the fact that we give 15 ticks before it's 100% confirmed is

still relatively amazing to me i think it's still a little bit more of a knee jerk on the up side than the down side. the down side ones when they happen can be big. the fact that we moved up 15 ticks is a positive indicator. >> all right so, chris, you're sticking to your guns? >> yeah. the message at the market, dollar probably topping here gold hasn't caught a bid copper is breaking out industrial's still firm. these are risk on signals. so in the spirit of price leading news, i think the market's been telegraphing that either china trade doesn't matter or we're going to get a good outcome i think it's also suggestive of a surprise in economic growth next year when you look at the improvement in copper and the changes in the pro risk groups i think the surprise is better data in 2020 than the streets expected. >> santoli, what did you make of the -- you know, you're really not seeing much euphoria at this point.

that makes sense, right? >> no. that's good to have in the background we've had outflows pretty much continuously this entire bull market from retail equity funds. that's to me not as much of a signal as background factor that says the public is not very entc about the market i don't need -- i don't know you need to see that kind of main street euphoria before you say the market might be getting toward a peak. we didn't see it in 2007 chris will tell me that wasn't a bull market. we didn't see it in 2007 i think that's a helpful factor w we're not seeing a lot of reckless speculation on main street that's like a given at this point, not a catalyst. we had outflows the entire time, the market went nowhere for a year and a half. >> thanks, chris euro, thanks, santoli, thanks. to the new york stock exchange, jim cramer joins us now. if we get a phase one, no more

tariffs and some grain buys, are you okay with that as a first phase and then get tough again on some of the more important ones or do you think we ought to just put the hammer down right now and demand some things then and take a harder line you've been pretty vociferous lately about that. >> i think if the chinese show any good faith, other than what they just put through about cybersecurity, what they just did, say, pull out all the pcs from the united states if they gave us an olive granbrh it is an interesting story jim has a good point unconfirmed, unconfirmed right now, lighthizer on a plane, not talking to anybody, not sure what is going on, it seems like that the chinese are putting these stories out. maybe mnuchin doing something, but unless there is some sort of big buy, no, the president -- i don't understand why he would do a delay. so i think there is -- i wish we

had more sources on this i wish we knew more because my understanding is that the president doesn't know anything about this right now if he does, must be some high level thing that he just got the call that they're going to buy the hogs that they have been saying they would. it is all about -- by the way, it is about a food shortage and inflation. not unlike what happened in tiananmen square tiananmen started with food inflation. i do think that there is supposed to come in with a hog buy. if they did that, yes, we can delay. without it, it is a femoral thought there will be good news. i can't buy it until i see some buy by the chinese. >> that wouldn't be the first time one of the camps in the administration said something either, jim. >> amen. amen i just want to talk about what jim said, don't want the viewers to be mistaken into thinking that there is a deal or there is a delay without hearing from the president these days >> how about -- >> i think it is dangerous. >> how about usmca

got impeachment at 9:00 and then take a couple of sticks of gum and chew that to show they can do that, and then maybe do the usmca at 10:00, is that possible to -- >> what is so funny is that the people in my twitter file, democrats, are saying now trump is going to take credit for this the people who like trump are saying, now, pelosi is going to take credit for this no one is saying it is bad everyone wants to take credit for it i know if you had a democrat in the white house and there was no longer pressure, and companies could still move back to mexico, this is good news. that's why you have to think about it i'm in the sure speaker pelosi doesn't disagree with that speaker pelosi came on "mad money" and said this is an important deal for the american worker a lot of people say that's nonsense i'm not going to -- >> it is like, all right, we're going to do impeachment, but to show you that we're not, you know, totally opposed to everything, we're going to do -- and show we can do thing at the same time and we're doing the people's work, we're going to do -- that's what it takes, maybe that's a good thing.

right? >> couldn't agree more with you, joe. couldn't agree with you more. >> i didn't think it would get done you're sort of giving trump a win, kind of, you can say that we did that, you're kind of giving him a win, but at the same time, doing the two articles of impeachment. >> yes yes, i think that it is -- the president, i think, is -- i think, like everyone else in washington, very confused about what is happening now and i don't want to present any certainty without it but i know that speaker pelosi wants this deal. >> jim, thanks we'll see you again, a lot more analysis in a few minutes. later, don't miss an interview with katrina lake, ceo of stitch fix, that stock spiking after better than expected results for its first quarter. don't miss that interview on "squawk alley" 11:00 a.m. eastern. stay tuned "sawbo cinrit ckquk x"omg ghba

little more than that. little more than 30 minutes until the opening bell on wall street we talked about what -- the futures jumped significantly on that report the u.s. and china may be planning a delay tariffs that are set to kick in on sunday dom chew join chu joins us with >> let's make it fast.

shares of netflix, down around 2% or so roughly 105,000 shares of volume, the online video streaming giant, underperform by analysts at needham. netflix could lose around 4 million subscribers. they may need to add a lower price subscription to counter the new lower priced streaming services on the market they think the stock looks more attractive around 260 bucks a share. next up, shares of jpmorgan chase, the biggest bank by market value down in the premarket trading around 19,000 shares of premarket val. analysts at kbw to market perform. valuation call here after solid performance this year. they think the upside is limited and stock trading around consensus expectations for earnings are church and dwight, down around 2%, 4,000 shares of premarket volume downgraded by analysts at jpmorgan to underweight. it was a neutral they cited concerns over recent

pricing actions and what they have on sales and effects they have there less accretive to growth in terms of acquisitions. they prefer shares of procter & gamble, that industry, down 2% back over to you. >> jack nicklaus tweeted out the name dom chu. >> yes. >> are you not going to wash your twitter account ever again? is that -- >> you know, i'll tell you what, joe, just because i know it is you, i did ask him last night about some golf tips about your putting stroke and everything else. >> putting stroke is not a problem. >> they didn't make air. you should go back and watch the tape he's got good tips for you on a full swing too. >> what about the yippie chips i'm clawing my chips now, putting from 80 yards, even if there say bunker >> that's skill. >> run it through the bunker. >> that takes a lot of skill it takes more skill to run a putt that far than make a chip maybe you're better off. >> so sad. i think it is age. i do >> maybe don't wear the watch when you play. >> that's what i was thinking. that's what i was thinking my anniversary watch

it is a beauty anyway, thank you, dom chu it was so nice of you to give that to me after we hit ten years together >> you're welcome. you're welcome >> not from you. >> you haven't given me anything except -- >> markets turned around show everybody where things are real quick >> 200 point wing. >> join us tomorrow. the guys on "squawk on the street" will take it away. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber in a moment, chairs will hold a news conference outlining the next steps in the impeachment process. live coverage from capitol hill. in the meantime, futures did rally from early morning loss as the journal says that u.s. and china negotiate herbs aors are e ground work. as we speak, mexico's president says that reps from canada and the u.s. will arrive in mexico