worth 500 billion than saudi aramco. >> all right we'll watch the trading tomorrow too. >> what do you think about that brennan. >> i think it's random but interesting. >> a lot of debt, yeah. >> yeah. >> us not them. >> yes, of course. >> all right that does it for "closing bell. it says. >> "fast money" begins right now. and it does, everybody welcome live from the nasdaq market site overlook new york's time square. i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa le trades are pete narjen guy adami. tonight on fast we have netflix taking a tumble today. has the streaming pioneer reached a peak pete, netflix and what will it mean for the rest of the court cutting world? plus chevron announcing a charge in the fourth quarter. but one of the traders says in stock is primed to pop he will make his case ahead. and later, lulu lemon posting earnings after the bell

tomorrow how options traders get ready for the prin by start with a d.c. triple play, the house moving forward on impeachment against president trump. congress reaching a bipartisan deal when was the last time you heard bipartisan deal on a new nafta we have late breaking developments on the trade war with china as the clock clicks to the new round of tariffs kicking in this we could let's get to kayla tausche live in washington in the d.c. newsroom for all three the stories. >> one of the two major variables on trade as you mentioned. house democrats announcing a deal with the white house and usmca, negotiators from the u.s. mexico and canada in mexico city to sign the revised deal the senate will not vote on in until after the impeachment trial. some republicans have raised concerns about how union friendly the deal is even as speaker pelosi is confirming that the house will vote next

week. >> we are declaring victory for the american worker in what is in the agreement but we never -- not anyone of us is important enough to hold up a trade agreement important for american workers because of collateral benefit that in might accrue to us. >> the white house is aiming to have the text to the hill by december 5th owe 15ing. the in the last week economic adviser larry cudd lor, the treasury and commerce secretary have suggested talks around track and president trump could delay tariff if the u.s. receives enough concessions in return but others went further. look at what agriculture secretary sony pur do you said we have a deadline on december 15th for another traufrmg of tariffs. i don't believe they will be complemented and we may see backing away the main reasons for many officials reluctance to speak

for president trump is that they say he has the final say and he has surprised some in the past. >> thank you very much and all of the trade talk comes as house democrats revealed formal arms of impeachment against president trump today. how should investors position themselves given all the political uncertainty around tariffs, impeachment, brexit pick the unzbleernt pick the poison guy. >> interesting last night brian sullivan was not feeling well. you are playing hurt as well. >> we have nice green tea. >> forget about me it's not about moop. it's about tyler mathisen. i'm kidding i'll answer the question there is always political uncertainty. this is going on 18 months or so nothing new on the margins listen, i don't think anybody knows what's going to happen i don't think president trump knows what he is going to do saturday at midnight i'll say this with the market at all-time highs with the china data miserable i think he feels he has pocket aces and plays through

i think he goes forth with the tariffs midnight on saturday evening. >> let's take impeachment first. because i think of that rather as the easy one. >> right. >> because barring some new bombshell revelation, i think most of of us on the desk for you know how it plays out. >> this isn't market moving at all unless the senate does something unexpected >> are oh unless somebody comes out and testifies with new negative we don't know yet. >> right i think that's not going to happen. >> let me follow up with a question about trade what if there is -- if the tariffs on sunday do not go into effect, no new tariffs, no new taxes and no deal? what happens to the market then? you keep the same tafrps that have been in place in flays but nothing else changes >> i think that's a mild positive i think there is some guys predicting he goes forward with the tariffs. there is some of that priced into the market. if we ge get rid of that or kick

the can down the road, another 60 days that's a mild positive for the market >>there is a little good cop bad cop in the administration be, some sap getting close sonny purdue saying i don't think the april 15th tariffs go in effect and the president holds back a bit others say this process. that's what's going on. >> i think the market has been taking all the news in stride the last couple months and priced in fact that even if there are tariffs on december 15th they won't be for long. i think it's important to put in the context of the usmca, the native an 2.0. think about in may lifting the aluminum and steel tariffs that had been on close to a year and now finally to the point of ratifying that, it's the other way around here when you think about what's going on with china. we have all the tariffs in place. but they're really just the chess pieces we know the big things are yet to come. you can do what you want with the december 15th tariffs right now i don't think it makes a big deal because the big issue, the reason the president has

weaponized tariffs is in ray effort to level the playing field with china that's not coming soon my view simply simply is the phase one is priced in i don't think you get a big possible when we get announcement about soybeans. it really is about phase two and three. >> i think we probably kick the can down the road, gives us 60 maybe 90 days, tyler, to try to get something pieced together. i think it's something that will we see it maybe kicked down again? i think that's a strong possibility. this is something where the president is in a position right now where quite frankly i don't know how he is trying to manipulate this exactly. but my guess is let's push it further and further down if we can get to the point of any real negotiations great otherwise i'm looking at november before we start to see something. but i would say this i think there would be a slight positive to your point, karen if they say, you know, we're not doing anything with the tariffs for now. and buys us 90 days.

because we have seen that happen a couple of times. volatility trading at 16 right now. that makes a lot of sense because of the movements we've been getting generally 1% moves feels like almost daily. everything seems priced about right. i think the bullish side would be going into the holiday season if we didn't raise the trafrs again. >> it feelsome like the administration is comfortable with the tariffs that are in place. >> yes. >> because the economy does not seem to have been affected by it in a major way it's probably hurting china more than the united states and we could go forward that way for a long time. >> i just want to interrupt quickly. i'm sorry it has affected our economy. you have to remember the administration was talking 3%, 4% gdp growth after the tax cut. so you know the tax cut did do what it was expected to do for a good part of 2010. and then the trade war started and it didn't only start with china. it started with allays and in north america. started with our allies in europe and has been a drain on

global growth. i'll give you exhibit a, the 10-year treasury yield at 1.84 after the fed cut three consecutive fed fund rates at meetings in july it has a material effect in a lot of ways on the economy. in a lot of ways it has outdone the expected good of the tax cut in late 2017 i actually thanksgiving we have as much incentive to get the tariffs off the global economy. >> would you argue it's attacked the market. >> i disagree. >> i diszbree. >> i this side of the desk. >> i think that what markets hate most is uncertainty right? i think that businesses and ceos and decision makers and capital allocators are comfortable knowing what it was. let's say we know the 15%, whatever the number is but they're not changing then people adjust, right? and i think businesses adjust and there is certainty and certainty trades better than lumpy uncertainty. >> pete. >> and i think also when you

look at this thing, dan where i'd put the pushback the slowest growth for 30 years in china that has a meaningful thing affecting china in terms of the middle class and everything we talk about all the time why everybody wants to be in china well, the idea that also that i think people are finding some efficiencies by saying we don't want to completely rely on china anymore and we are seeing some of that moving away to other parts of the world which will help some of the rest of the world but china is feeling a little bit more and a little bit more over time. now it will take some time but i still think this they are hurting far worse than we are. we are at all-time highs in the market jernly. if you look at right now, we have a lot of strength those job numbers were fantastic. there is a lot of positives. >> i just see it really differently. the tax cut was $$1.5 trillion borrowed from the the future and given to the corporate class then the mid-quarter adjustment as far as rate cutting when you think about everything that's done. we had the stealth qe 4 this

year that the s&p up 25% i don't really care that the s&p 500 is up 25% when we talk about the issues that we're talking about. the question was, what have the tariffs down, the trade war done for the global economy it's undeniable after all the stimulus we have had that it's basically been the foot on the neck of global economy. >> global economy but not the u.s. economy. >> but pete we're growing at 2%. the average over the last ten years. what has happened in the last ten years. unprecedented easy monetary policies pb the mid-quarter adjustment trillions and triples and trillions of dollars of global debt that are yielding negative. you tell me you want to look at the snpdo s&p 500 and say success mission accomplished that's one way to think about it as it relates to the 401(k) but don't mean a lot to savers and doesn't mean a lot to the point about cap x. we have not seen a booming kx i take a different stance thinking about it from three thousand if you only look at the s&p 500. it's amazing up 5%. >> before i bring in the next

guest to continue the conversation it's liefl to begin with getting more liefl. you're saying the global slowdown is directly related to trade tension and specifically the u.s. china trade. >> no doubt about it and then the other deflationary forces existing in the globalized economy that we have. the trump doesn't like it doesn't speak to his what his base has been purt hurting about. but that's the wayit's going t don't think usmca is anything moreno nafta 2.5 very easy to run on in the manufacturing belt in the middle of the country it's not changing a heck of a lot. don't forget for a second that tariffs are the enforcement mechanism when the trail deals go bad we ripped up our trade deals, excluded ourselves weaponized them for the wrong reasons. the president threatened tariffs and mexico over immigration earlier this ear you forget this? okay this is not the way to do this the economy is not going back for the 1920s last time we had

presidents railing against globalization. >> let's bring in mandy and zu. >> from credit suisse great to have you here. >> thank you. >> react on the tests in college. discuss. >> i would agree on the national level economic data in the u.s. has absolutely been great whether you look at payroll, gdp, et cetera but i think the national data masks huge regional disparity. and i think on the topic of trade the interesting study that came out recent was the federal reserve report showing going into next year 7 states are forecast to go into a contraction. right despite the great national data seven states forecasting contraction. ohio, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, sound familiar. >> i think going into a 2020 election these are the states that trump carried in 2016 he is facing pressure. what he has done with the trade war is create a manufacturing slowdown that has disproportion

knitly hurt the rust belt. right now he is feeling the pressure to get something done on trade that maybe he wasn't feeling at the beginning of the year >> very interesting. in has been a year of relative -- to me at least i don't know about you -- you guys can disagree or whatever this hasn't been a particularly volatile year to me. >> right especially following last year. >> 2018 was and 2017 was not. >> yes. >> and this year gone back to. >> historical average. >> calm phase. how day trade the volatility in 2020. >> i think the view going forward is constructive despite markets at all all-time highing we are constructive two factors, the economic fundamental was be, the manufacturing slowdown says it's bottoming this month and pick up into next year good for risk sentiment and stocks and the second reason i'm bullish or constructive at this moment is that despite the record highs in the market

investors haven't really participated in the rally. positioning has been extremely defensivive. we see it in the hedge fund data most hedge funds covering shorts haven't added to longs net exposure mutualed. on the options side particularly we zero bust demand for downside hedges almost record levels throughout the curve. whether you look at short dated hedges or longer dated hengst everyone is focused on downside risk to us. >> that gives you an opportunity to get in. >> exactly historically when we look at it when positioning has been this off sides in the optioning market that's been a contrarian signal markets tended to actually rally going forward seeing this much demand for downside risk seems counterintuitive when you see the risks priced it's the upside that's the shock. >> makes the great to have you wonderful. >> glad to have you here. >> she is effectively saying with everybody focused on it

going lower the market -- everybody is waiting to buy the dip based on those hedges they put on it's counterintuitive but makes sense the market wants to go high are. i happen to agree. there is no denying that the market has only only gone up the last 18 months you the quick pushback you mention the affect on the economy of the tariffs the only thing president trump watches in my opinion is the stock market at an all-time high he is laser focusesed on that. in my opinion he feels he has chips to play with in terms of what happened over the weekend. >> and amidst the trade tension the market up 24% this bad. >> not bad is guy the most welcoming person ever. >> yes. >> big hugger. >> he brings everybody in. >> i'm not a nice person can i say something don't confuse the issue. mean as a snake. >> excuse me folks thank you, mandy appreciate you being here i'm an inclusive welcoming guy too don't get me wrong.

>> usually usually. >> more bad news for boeing we tell wlau held it in the red today and later the downgrade rocking wall street and shaved 4 billion from netflix what did the analyst say that spook the street we are live from times square in new yo cy.rkit much more "fast money" right after this intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from using feedback to innovate... to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. following two big stories on boeing first the company announcing new orders numbers and second a boeing employee who says he flagged problems with the 737 max plane is gearing up to testify in front of congress tomorrow phil lebeau in the toss nation's capital capitol with more on this. >> starting off with the order numbers for boeing a bit of good news here. they had 11 net orders 11 positive orders for aircraft in the month of november and for the max, really the first time this year we have seen positive order flow, two orders for 30 planes, firm orders by the way. we haven't seen that this year overall for the year they're still net negative 84 planes that's how much the backlog dropped off mainly because they

haven'ted racked up many orders oh or few and cancellations and versions the news is not as good on deliveries the company this year through november delivered 345 commercial airplanes they might get up to 370 by the end of december. no where close to what they did last year and no where close to the 800 airbus expectsed to deliver. on pace for the fewest deliveries since 2018. looking at shares of boeing and airbus we have talked about in time and again, guys it's all about cash flow and the fact that airbus delivers close to 80 oh airplanes this carrier. boeing maybe 370, waiting for the mack to be recertified and speaking speak of the certification the decision rests largely on the shoulders of the head of the f. a. a, steve dickson, testifying tomorrow about how the fa. a handled the max. before going to capitol hill he talks with us exclusively on

squawk box 8:00 tomorrow morning. don't miss it. and it won't be part of steve dickson's panel but the panel after him that's when congressman will be talking to others about the concerns when it comes to workmanship at the boeing plant in renten whether or not they compromised safety as they ramped up production. >>en at pace of deliveries that was apparently setting a quick work pace. phil lebeau thank you very much. >> you bet. >> we know you'll cover it for us tomorrow. i can't imagine how you quantify the damage- you can look at market cap lost orders, look at a company delivering 800 planes this year delivering 370 this year how do you quantify the damage to boeing. >> how do you measure confidence you can't short answer process people say the stock performed well in the wake of this i understand that argument but it's still down 20 or so% from when it took place in february

with the s&p 500 at all-time highs. talking about this i get things wrong every night on the show but one thing we got right is the stock vassel eighted between 340 and 375. we thought it would go back to 375 a few weeks ago that's where it stopped now it does the round trip down to 325 you have to bet on the broader market now and basically a no headline risk over the next couple weeks to be bullish that's all you'll see is headline risk from boeing going forward. >> we had a guest on power lunch, great show. >> i watch it. >> it's a great cap. >> nice target of 520 on boeing. 550% from where it is right now. anybody see that in the cards for the stock. >> i guess if they get right away they get -- hoping for certification december if any get the planes out and flying by february or -- february is probably a bit aggressive and the orders just flow in. and the public is delighted to

fly on a 737 max they don't give it a second thought. >> would you. >> i'm a nervous flier. >> yes. >> many people would fly on it i would be a little -- i'd wait a long time. >> i would have never checked the equipment on a flit before. >> no hesitation. >> no hesitation. >> just based upon what we have seen in front of us so far in terms of the airlines who was flying them what the hours were all the rest of that and all this -- the other thing i is a i in terms of measure of confidence right now tyler is you have to look at this way look at the stock trading. that's the measure of confidence i've got this stock should not be trading at the levels it is presently given the thumbs that we were just talking about you just quoted some of the numbers. what their deliveries are and what's come off the log. this is a pretty impressive thing. i think part of it helps them out is the duopoly and the stronger market to your point, guy but that combination -- look where the stock is trading right now. it's been amazing. >> you see a vote of confidence.

>> i do. >> we're taking a market flash on drop box dropping after hours. deedra bosa has the story from the west for us deedra. >> tyler, c suite changes at the platform shares falling in the after hours extended trade drop box chief customer officer stepping down effective january 3rd, receiving a transition payment of $500,000. and coming a few months after the company cto quinton clark announced his departure. but drop box is struggling to free use tors paid users at the pace investors would be would like to see and the gap losses are worsening and revenue growth deaccelerated over the last year or so. the company now trading at $15.17 it ipos in 2018 at $21. >> thank you, deedra reporting on drop box. >> is there a trade. >> dbx, the august 21st low i think if memory serves watch in

was $17.20, exactly where we are now traded down there on huge volume what's the point the point if this l tomorrow min interesting trade. i'm saying this. i can't believe i'm about to say it it's expensive it's not ridiculously expensive. and this might be a decent trading opportunity tomorrow if it can somehow hold effectively $17. >> any other thoughts on drop box sfl let's drop box. >> dbx. >> that's how it comes out. >> back to boeing for all the latest on boeing from the orders to the whistle-blower hearing tomorrow, you could find it out at cnbc.com and a lot more coming on fast here is what's up next the streaming wars heating up en-on he one analyst says first mover netflix could face fire in the new year but will offerings like the a irishman be the savior plus why the nike swoosh is getting poo-pooed by baseball

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>> announcer: tomorrow, aftermath of the fed decision from all the angles. instant reaction to fed chair powell's first remarks and the moves investors should be taking power lunch tomorrow, 2:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc. all right. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. needham putting the chill on netflix today. the call of the day. analyst laura martin saying 4 million u.s. subscribers at risk if the company doesn't create a lower price tier to compete with disney abapple and the list of names entering the streaming space. julia boorstin in l.a. with more hi, julia. >> tyler, laura needham -- laura martin from needham recommending netflix offer a $5 to, sr. 7 subscription option to compete. >> there is 30 million people

never taken netflix in any form because it's too expensive and don't want to break the law. getting those people to sign onto netflix plus in a marketplace you must have a response to apple and disney at $5 to $7 a month you can't have the $13 response. >> as today netflix content officer announced the martin scorsese movie the netflix exclusive to netflix has been viewed by 24 million accounts. netflix counts a view as a subscriber completing 70% of the 3.5 hour long movie. projecting that 40 million of the subscribers will complete viewing the film in the first for you four weeks investors are waiting to see if the new services will eat into netflix subscriber base. with all eyes on disney and nbc pay dock and hbo max launching next year. also today, at&t coo and warner

media ceo saying hbo max aims to appeal to a broader demographic than disney plus focused on younger viewers. hb pochlt has been investing in content for teenagers and ald older adults on the golden globes netflix winning. sweeping the nominations with both the film and tv categories beating hbo by two nomination nystagmus the tv category. >> let's take talk about our favorite picks in the streaming area you go first. >> why not. >> why not. >> laura martin making the comments on netflix also made comments on roku and increased the farther from 150 to 200, set up well to be the content aggregator out there you can't get behind roku on valuation. i get that but that's true since it was $80 back to 160 back to 100. it's a volatile stock but if

anybody wins i think roku cod. i understand if you want to avoid on valuation i goat it. >> oh. >> wait. >> hold on. >> hold on. >> hold on we wind that if anyone is going to win here i think it could be roku. >> yes. >> i just said. >> that's never been said before in financial media before. i mean seriously roku throw it on the scrap heap of tech, this thing is not. >> it's a negative. >> not a big winner in the streaming war. it's a hardware. trying to be a platform. the whippers are obvious the content. vertically substitution. beknow what at&t had the and the content they' kwierd we know what disney has been doing over the last five years in been in the penalty box now coming out it's interesting pb obviously comcast parent of the network is just said they are spending $2 billion to build out their

streaming thing. so those are the winners because they have all the content. netflix now interestingly enough that we know that they lost adds in north america in the q 2 and hit the stock hard one of the reasons why it underperformed. we know that q 3 adz were disaping in north america. and globally deaccelerating. it's the than ohs snap disney stuff, the lucas stuff all going away what are they left with? left with a little offering that should be $5 for the kids who don't know what the heck they're watching you know because there are zombies on the ipads that's what it's relegated to because the irishman was unwatchable. 3.5 hours of unwatchable garbage. >> every thursday he comes out like this. >> this is tuesday. >> what month is this december. >> yes. >> last year december was 2018 you might want to look back

where the roku traded then $25 stock. $25 stock where did it close today funny man. >> but just because the price action is such doesn't mean that it's a thing i mean look at the short interest look -- it's a cult thing. have at it. >> you got a favorite pick in the streaming area. >> i do disney hard to kmeet against disney when they are all in and so i'd also -- i think the piece was interesting about netflix tothe extent this they lose u.s. subscribers that's what the stock reacts to so if that's the theory which it is partially and international subscribers about a third as profitable and that's the growth netflix you can see having competition from every side now as well as the raw material costs which are content going up abup, up. >> hard for a parent with young kids to say no to disney plus at that price point. >> i'll tell thu, tyler i own

disney for the same reason you do netflix is still a buy because of the fact that everybody is focused on u.s i'm not concerned about the u.s. i think they churn a while lose a few. it's international, india, the content they are developing in those other countries that's going to be it but 17 golden globes, movies and tv, giddyup. >> we'll leave it there. coming up losing energy, we're not, we're going dumpster diving in the beaten down energy sector for a stock to help the portfolio. ahead lulu lemon coming up why one options trader sees it stretching even high sfwleer you didn't say that. >> you don't have to read it because it's in the stupid thing. >> stickrod, aun "fast money" >> stickrod, aun "fast money" back in two. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson...

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welcome back to "fast money. a double play for you in sports wear first to lulu lep lemon, the stock running from the pack this year outperforming nike, adidas and underarmor reporting earnings after the bell tomorrow. and options trader bet the stock could stretch higher the word again roger dasilva back with us to break down the action. what's the trade here. >> the options imply about an 8%

move a little cheaper than the last few quarters, call it 9%. that tells me you have people positioning for upside with 2 the.5 the calls over puts. specifically the january 250 calls about 1400 traded today. about 4,200 in the open interest that tells me that a classic stock replacement trade. stocks had a tremendous run as you see in the kmart traders are saying i'm taking profits in the stock and guy is a buyer of the pants maybe not the stock and they want to protect the downside in the calls. >> dan. >> he talks about the implied move and talking about the at the money straddle the the call and the put in the weekly options totalling $18 if you fake $18 to the downside where it trades. that is where it broke out a few weeks ago to the new highs to his point it's been a massive breakout here. i think the options market is

getting correct a little bit as far as the potential movement up or down about $20. >> i would say what makes the most sense honestly is a stock minneapolisment akees makes pen. lulu on the absolute tear to the upside you talk about the outperformance i still own the stock but why not if you choose get out of the stock but still have the option position giving you upside with the limited risk whatever you paid for that that's the entire richk, tyler you get a big whoosh to the downside like you are talking about you lose whatever it is you paid for the calls that's the total risk and if it continued to the upside you have you have the kicker of the calls. >> we have gotten the verbs stretch, tear, straddle into this. >> wung thing before i go happy birthday to the little guys turning 5 and 7 this week happy birthday. >> happy birthday to that. >> >> and see like the half man half horse. >> catch the full show friday

5:30 at eastern time haem birthday to kids. >> let's stick with sports wear. we promised a double play. baseball fans taking a swing at nike after the mlb unvafld the uniforms the swoosh logo on the front of the jerseys. critics say the logo looks unprofessional and tacky but that's not stopping the shares of the stock. sprinting higher this year up more than 30% sitting at all-time highs is nike, karen, a good bet and how do you feel about the swoosh op the shirts. >> i don't have strong feelings about the swosh. it's a blip. and they paid for the spot. >> i'm sure mlb made nice money. >> that's the spot they get whether or not the fans like it. i like nike it's a bit expensive not crazy expensive. they're been on a tear the momentum seems good. i'm not long it but i like it. >> i like the name but i think it's overstretched frankly to

the upside you look at the multiple and growth and you put that up against competition, injury it's very expensive i'd love it on a pullback but trading near $100 a share with the present growth rate they've got, it's great what they're doing but i think it's overprice >> any reaction to the swooch swoosh on the jersey. >> i say that's what it comes about anyway they put it out graphically that swoosh isn't so bad. >> i'm a nat fan you couldn't pick a nat fan out of a lineup when is next you have chico bail bonds on the back of the yankee jersey. >> stop it. >> have you seen the international soccer they ot. >> stuff all over them. >> games they broadcast from the mavis tire broadcast booth everything is merchandise. it's the 13th out. >> you're saying major league.

>> that's a new thought. >> a bigger thought. this is the death rattle for baseball anyway. it's the worst sport on the planet you might as well plaster it on there for the whole thing. it's going down. >> let's talk more baseball. 63 days until pitcherers and catchers report for spring training we're getting bull pen ready pete narjen picking name he thinks could fly high. taking the mound when "fast e ndy" returns thwi up and the pitch. >> yeah! this piece is talking to me. yeah? >> announcer: "options action" sponsored by think or swim by td sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah.. td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪

welcome back to "fast money. everybody, big news crossing on krerch the company releasing the 2020 budget and chevron lowering the long-term forecast for commodity prices and writing down the value of assets by more than $10 billion. the stock slightly lower in after hours trading. we hear from the ceo michael wirth tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. eastern time on squawk box answering all the questions. with the headlines pete says the stock could be warming up for a breakout. >> you talk about michael wirth on tomorrow.

that's one of the biggest reasons like the stock looking at the management, tyler, what i like most is i want consistency, somebody who has been around the business, maybe been in this specific business this gentleman joined chevron 1982 he has been there ever since and he has moved up through almost every single category you can imagine to get himself positioned to be the ceo of the company. that stands out for me i think he understands every single aspect of the business. now looking at the c suite, his team is doing an unbelievable job. if you kmar compare right now chevron with exxon -- by the way i sold exxon to buy chevron. why? a lot of it has to do with the team he built over the years, streamlining the operation, being more efficient, taking in revenues but making more of the earnings than xlm right now. they trade fundamentally a inexpensive. looking at 16 ob 17 pe versus

exxon trading higher you do get a dividend yield about 4% with exxon about 5% this is what i like about the company. looking at the chart, the reason why the chart looks the way it does in terms of from being down here even 115 it's been moving here to the upside now has it made a huge move this year, year to date depends on where you want to start. right here where it was, right here where it was. where do you want to start in this is a company i think is strong they can navigate and the shale play is something that's big for them going forward >> does anyone have questions for professor pete. >> my question would be the fact that they ratcheted down the commodity prices does that concern you or are they sand bagging. >> sandbagging and also trying to position themselves, defy right now they put themselves in such a great position. one of the strongest in terms of they would make money anything over $51 share they do well. this is where they go out with a bit of a warning going forward

in the future in terms of the energy space but oil as you know it's a volatile medicate commodity no doubt. >> are you buying pete's pitch on kmerch? karen you go first. >> i hate to vote against pete so i'm not going to vote against pete i'm just passing mimi passing chevron. >> that's you in the car. >> that's a very good likeness i just -- it's a commodity bet i don't have a view on commodity -- on the commodity. so but i would never bet against pete. >> dan you are up. >> funny i would bet against pete listen i thought that was a good bullish argument to buy it he also said relative to exxon i'm not a fan. i see the stock back to 110 before going up another $10 or something like that. to me, you know pretty meh. >> guy. >> i wrote cbx is a valuation.

congo trade 8 process exxon trade chevron 16, 17 times it's in a pennant formats which i think breaks out upside so i concur with pedro on chevron, tyler. >> two of the three judges vote no but you get a ticket to minneapolis, pete. >> appreciate that tyler. >> we'll give you a ticket all right the desk is voted. but are you buying the pitch on chevron cast the vote in the twitter poll @cnbc "fast money" we reveal the results later in the show coming up next, the home and car trade breaking down the moves in the big names. and look at the cramer cam jim laying out the trade war playbook that and more on "mad money" at the top of the hour. live just as we were about 49 minutes ago in times square. more "fast money" still ahead.

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that's simple, easy, awesome. click, call or visit a store today. welcome back to "fast money. it was a tale of two stocks in the home and car trade today let's kick things off with auto zone the stock zooming higher after better than expected quarterlies, sending auto zone shares to new record highs inned session. do you have a take on auto zone

at 1250, karen. >> it's an expensive stock an $80 move you think that's a biotech move but on a $1200 stock not so much. that was a great quarter and impressive remember going back maybe a year and a half there was the perception thefrp amazoned out damaged terrible. that hasn't been the case at all. good for them. 19, times times earnings getting a bit rich that's a market multiple and done an excellent job. >> up 73% in two years. >> what i love about auto zone that karen brings up the amazon effect, right. >> yes. >> best buy, still doing well going to highs all the time. in the congressry space. everywhere amazon went to kill everybody. target, wal-mart doing well >> let's move from the garage to the home the foundations are looking a bit shaky for toll brothers for whom the toll bells. shares falling almost 4% with

analyst flagging weaker than expected guidance dpiet the earnings beat. home builders up 40% but dan you flagged a chart signaling troubles. >> listen, toll, a high-end homemaker here if you want to plat the mortgage rates 30-year versus new home sales. you see new home sales rising as mortgage rates go down then you see this company like this guiding weak on margins and talk about weak demand in places like california, you start krachg your head a bit. the down 5% could be the start of something, especially after that jobs data we got on friday. if that suggest nas rates are probably done going down in the intermediate term, you might see mortgage rates going up, which will aircraft demand >> stock was at $35 stock in august traded up to 41 in straight line. valuation is compelling. i think you buy it at 38 that's the retracement the stock has been volatile for sop time it's a great trading stock

despite all the things dan said -- and he made the extraordinary cogent argument. >> i knew you were saying. >> that like all the home builders. >> when you see the new home sales when the rates go down and go up they come in 2018 was not a great year for home builders, underperforming when the market fell out of bed in q 4 who so do toll brothers they underperforming many peers and many of the etfs tracking the z indices. it was telling that you this thing probably had headwinds i'm just not a. >> is that because of the market niche there. >> because they are the higher end obviously. >> i don't dislike or like any -- i thought it was an interesting data point. >> dan doesn't like anything. >> that's not true. >> sit around trading home builders you know what i mean, come on. >> no kidding. >> dan knows a lot that's regionis fill ban, tyler. >> huge fan.

>> huge "fast money" fan. >> he might be. >> one of the nicest guys. still ahead the last chance to vote in the twitter poll are you buying pete's chevron pitch? weigh in at cnbc "fast money." the results and the final trade when we come back.

you hear that ror. it's yetti it keeps climbing. i'll reechl the answer and o off the charts with a few sectors that have more upside in 2020. "mad money" is next.

all right. time to -- drum roll reveal the results from the "fast money" pitch on chevron. sorry to say, pete, struck out the majority. >> it's a good contra indicator. >> tony has been a great contra indicato >> majority of people saying swing and a miss. >> that's okay. >> final trade around the horn beginning with you pete. >> listen to the people people in this case are wrong cvs giddyup process. >> doubling down. >> karen you're up. >> yes all the talk about the streaming wars i like disney, the valuation i like the position i think they'll be a viable kpeter >> interests no company knows how to make money from more things than more ways than disney. >> i guess you like netflix. >> i don't like -- you were paying attention there. >> i was. >> listen if you thought netflix had a bad year this year it's

bad next year. >> remember coming to america. eddie murphy said in the face. >> in dan's face roku sucker thanks for being here tyler. >> tyler, excellent job. >> that is the hangover. >> "mad money." >> there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome co-to cramerica. my job is not to understand, educate and teach you. call me or tweet me. themes repel earnings. earnings propel stocks always say that every day, including this one the dow dipped 28 points