expect support from the street going forward. >> yep, with comcast so i don't need to speak any more on that. >> steph >> i think the turnaround of ge has a lot more to go. >> joe >> tip inflation etf. we'll talk a little administer about that next week. >> great weekend, everybody. "the exchange" starts now. >> thank you, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm andrew and here is what is ahead. a phase one trade deal has been approved from both sides of the globe. what's in it, what's next, and which investors actually believe about all of it. plus major m and a to major layoffs, media sector have lots of twists and turns in 2019. and taylor swift, she's got some serious bad blood going on with private equity and we are going to begin, though, right now with today's record setting day in the markets. the one and only dom chu has it all. >> mr. sorkin, i do.

so what we have right now, sir, is a green across the screen board. but it's very modest and to be fair, at one point, we were all down modestly as well you can see here, though, the s&p 500 just about two points upside not a lot. at the highs of the day, we were up 14 points and we were down 12 points at the lows of the day. so hovering right in the middle of that range right now still. that roller coaster ride continues because of those trade headlines. do we have a definitive deal do we not? what are the details we don't exactly know. but take a look at the china trade index from cnbc. by the way, you can go to our website and check out this chart as well. throughout the course of the year, it has been a roller coaster ride in terms of trade headlines but you can see we are near the highs of the year and that china trade index has been generally positive the last couple months. and the stock of the day, in an otherwise up-ish day, haynes brand shares, one of the worst

performers after analysts at bank of america down graded that stock saying their athletic unit might be poised for a bit of a slowdown that hanes brand kind of really lagging today. >> okay, dom love seeing you. thank you for that in the meantime, we begin today in washington, d.c. where that phase one trade deal with china has officially been reached. but a lot of confusion still reigning over what remains live in washington with the latest as we try to sort through all of it. how you doing? what are you dthinking >> andrew, we are still waiting to get some of the firm details about this deal. we are hearing the u.s. and china are hoping to sign it in early january. but clearly, already president trump thinking about the next phase of this agreement. as he spoke to reporters just a little bit ago >> the tariffs will largely remain 25% on $250 billion. and we'll use them for future

negotiations on the phase two deal which they would like to start immediately and that's okay with me we're going to wait till after the election but they h'd like o start 'em sooner than that and that's okay. so we'll start that negotiation soon. >> as for what was announced today, the 15% tariffs that had been put on about $120 billion worth of goods on september 1st, those were cut in half to 7.5% meanwhile, the tariffs that were supposed to take effect on december 15th, those 15% tariffs on $150 billion in goods, those have been delayed. but clearly, everyone is still waiting for some ink on paper. and for that ink to dry before breathing a sigh of relief andrew. >> thank you for that. and i know you're going to keep on this. and i imagine we'll be talking again, possibly in this hour in the meantime, what should markets take away from all this? i want to bring in dan, the head of policy research

cnbc contributor michelle ka cue r cuesew cabrera michelle, i ask you, what do you make of this >> look. directionally, from the markets, it's a good thing because the choices were you could have a lot more tariffs beginning on sunday now, there's going to be fewer tariffs. not quite as much i think as the markets thought when we were talking earlier. peter and i that when there was a story yesterday in the journal that half "halftimof the tarifft come off but still, directionally, the right way because it could have continuously gotten worse. >> okay. but, dan, let me ask you this. is this a win for the administration is this a win for the markets? >> well, for the markets, it is a win. and we're reducing a major headwind or we're making it directionally better, as michelle said. and i think that's going to be good for markets for the president, he's going to have to withstand a week or two

of people saying you didn't get much for this deal lot of people are saying that today and they don't even know what the details are i think ultimately -- >> what do you say today >> i i this -- i think this will be a win for the president, andrew but you just kind of got to work through where those details are. we're reading that there's nine chapters that means it's intellectual property, currency and i'm going to reserve judgment on how good a deal this is until we see those details. but i can tell you the administration feels very strongly, positively, about what was negotiated and i tend to trust them on this. >> okay. let me ask you a second question or a -- i also want to get peter involved in this which is this one thft of the things we heard from the president about this trade deal is he plans to start working on the second component, phase two of all of this, immediately. and rather than to wait -- i mean, i think the expectation was this would wait till after the election. >> yep. >> what kind of uncertainty, or not, does that now bring into this whole process and into the

markets all over again >> great question. so, first, right, we're reducing tariffs. we're sending a message to the business community that they can start making cap x investments while negotiating for a second deal robert lighthizer is basically saying to the chinese, you want lower tariffs? then you have to give me something on egg purchases you got to give me something on opening up foreign ownership limits i really like this fazed approach would i rather have done it all at once in may absolutely but they're actually taking it step by step testing the limits of each political system of the u.s. and china and then banking those wins. and i think that's going to just further encourage confidence moving forward. >> peter, bring it from 30,000 feet to the ground as an investor how you're supposed to think about all this and what -- and what you should be interested in what the play is as a result. >> i think let's quantify the tariffs. the tariff amount went from

basically 80 billion to 70 billion. so that was the extent of the tariff relief. yes, we threw out the december ones but i don't think anybody believed they would follow through. i think the business community, let's hope that they can gain confidence and inflect growth higher now that we've this this day tant but we're still dealing with $70 billion worth of tariffs and we still have the ability for trump, at any time, to raise those tariffs. raise the 7.5% rate back to 15 put on the tariffs on the remaining. tariffs are a roach motel. once you -- it's easy to get in. but it's becoming very difficult to get out and there is a lot of skepticism that we get any phase to and if that's correct, these tariffs are going to be with us way too long. >> then the arc of history and where this is all headed, do you look at this as progress and say we're on the path to the right destination? or, by the way, there are a lot of people who think that we are on a path towards a -- a -- a

sort of -- a much larger trade war, ultimately, if not something worse. >> i think that you should -- i think we should plan on the fact that china and the u.s. are going to move apart economically i don't think there's any -- >> so there's no signal today that should make you feel any better about that? >> directionally, we're not going to get more tariffs. it's clear the president probably doesn't want to do that. >> if you're microsoft or any of the big companies and china may no longer be using. >> that's my point one of those big tech companies. it's no longer us. it's them. it's their new data privacy law that went into effect on december 1 where they can now, when the chinese can look at anything on your servers it's all the things they are doing in china. >> right. >> that, by the way, under xi jinping, i believe they were going to do anyway. >> the question i'm asking is maybe slightly different do we believe that any of these negotiations are going to change that outcome >> no, absolutely not. i don't think so i don't think the chinese are

going to change. >> and, andrew, let me say the president's changed the status quo here the supply chains are already moving there's bipartisan support for taking china on diplomatically tech-wise. tariff wise. right. so there's this kind of changed opinion in the u.s. compared to two or three years ago that actually allows the president to make this type of deal going into the election and tryi try and get the economy growing faster than it currently is. >> there are a lot of economic consequences to all this all of a sudden, china doesn't need us as much. they don't need to buy u.s. products as much the two biggest economies in the world need to get along. we need to figure out a way. but we're headed in a direction -- >> if that's the case, though, if i were to ask you give me the one, two, and three industries that get hurt the most and the one, two, and three industries that will get helped the most as a result of this over the next year. >> well, i think hurt will be technology, if china is now moving away from our products.

and doing everything they can to create their own industries. this is a big customer for u.s. technology and we're losing that. >> we're losing that. >> we are losing that over the next bunch of years. >> if you're managing money thinking to yourself do you want to be in big tech? you're saying you don't want to be in big tech because of this >> i think particularly with u.s. semi-conductor companies that sell a lot of product into china, over the next five years, they're going to lose their biggest customer in asia. >> there's so many companies that believed they had to go in china, right they had to do it in china but what if everything that china was going to do regardless of whoever was president, was about making sure that all the technology was produced in their country. that they were going to do things to their economy that don't make them nearly as attractive. >> i want to press pause for a second because we have some new breaking news. washington and kayla tausche who has some new details to bring us. >> i just got out of a briefing with ambassador robert

lighthizer and he gave some outlines of exactly what is in this deal itself he showed reporters a leather-bound 86-page deal he says that is what will be signed by ministers in washington aiming for the first week of january. so it will not be president trump and president xi signing that deal. he said it will be effective indefinitely once it goes into effect until either party reneges in the future. he says there will be no new tariffs put in place so long as the two parties are abiding by that agreement in good faith he said he wants phase two negotiations to start in due course at an appropriate time. but he says he does not believe that the u.s. will be waiting until after the election to begin those negotiations he also confirmed some data that i reported on cnbc earlier today. that the purchases portion of this deal is about $200 billion. that's what china has agreed to purchase in u.s. goods and roughly $40 billion of that

is agriculture, although ambassador lighthizer said that china will make best efforts to get that number to $50 billion on an annual basis as president trump had been targeting those purchases in aggregate will include not only agriculture, but also manufactured goods and energy products, including liquified natural gas. so certainly some interesting contours around this deal that has been talked about broadly for several months at this point. and i asked him specifically, what happened between october 11th and now in the two months since president trump said in the oval office that there was a phase one deal and today, when china accepted that deal and announced it on his own soil he said back in october that the two sides had made notional commitments but it took some time to get exact level of specificity to commitments went right up to 10:00 a.m. this morning when president trump called him to give him the green light for that deal right as that press conference in beijing was beginning. >> hey, kayla, before you go

did he provide any detail in terms of what kind of teeth are in this agreement? in terms of our ability to hold china accountable for these purchases. >> so it's an interesting point. obviously, enforcement has been the buzz word for this administration as it pertains to this deal. there's going to be a multitiered enforcement mechanism here whereby companies even on anonymous basis can raise concerns about perhaps china not living up to its agreements that is on the intellectual property side. on the purchases side, they're using 2017 data. that was a year in which china purchased $24 billion in agricultural goods they said that they expect china to do about $16 billion a year on top of that so that's $32 billion over two years. and then they're going to do five to ten billion more of that or at least that's the administration's hope. as far as what they would do if china doesn't do that, didn't say. but certainly that has been a focus of the president and in delivering some of that good news to farmers. especially, in some of those key

swing states. >> thank you, kayla. kayla tausche bringing us fresh nows right out of the white house with lighthizer. you have a question for kayla? >> i was wondering if we're ever going to actually be able to read that signed agreement the leather-bound agreement. >> kayla, are you still with us? >> yes, i am so we were told that there would be a fact sheet of sorts that's released today that's going to have more detail more meat on the bone than we've gotten so far. including some specific -- some specific details around the intellectual property and around of some these purchases, which they won't go into detail about the specific numbers because they don't want it to move the market the deal itself is expected to be made public at some point over the next couple of weeks. ambassador lighthizer acknowledged that people on the hill, lawmakers really want to see this and he said -- i think he said they'll get their nose out of joi joint if they don't get to have a look at this that was the turn of phrase he used so i think he understands the text of this needs to be made

public. >> dan, what's your reaction to all this listening to what kayla is saying? >> well, it's good news but i would say the term sheet from u.s. trade representative has to look like the term sheet from china. in the past, they haven't been on the same page we will feel more confident if both sides have similar terms. and once we get that text, then it's real. i think it's important that lighthizer was showing the reporters there is a text. and then the critical test -- the critical test will be as the hardliners start to press on president trump and president xi, will they hang in there as that pressure builds i think both sides will. but that will be the test if this is sustainable. >> okay. final words of peter and i will acknowledge i was watching peter's face as kayla was delivering that news and when she said 40 million -- 40 billion, rather, i apologize -- on agriculture, you winced. >> the peak was 25 how they go from 25 to 40, i really have no idea. i do like u.s. agriculture

stock, by the way. but i don't know how they get realistically, mathematically from 25 to 40 in just one year. >> and by the way, what she was suggesting is actually they're going to try to get from 40 to 50, in fact. >> the math doesn't work for me. i'd love to see it but the numbers just don't match up. >> what about the 200 billion total number >> well, yes, that may work. >> we were looking at each other because before we started the segment, we were like how do they get to the 50 billion it's probably based on market prices because, you know, ag prices, commodityprices fluctuate. but that's news they've supposedly committed to the liquid natural gas purchases that's something ross has been pushing for a long time. >> thank you, guys, try to make sense of this news as it comes at us directly meantime, here's what else is still ahead on "the exchange." coming up. it was a year of m and a, layoffs, and management surprises in the world of media.

we'll dig into it all and see what could be ahead in 2020. plus, the decade the robots came a look at the industries that could see a big change as the automation revolution kicks into high gear. and why one analyst says snap could rally 33% from here this is "the exchange" on cnbc

welcome back to "the exchange." 2019 has been a year of twists and turns for the world of media. a host of mergers and strategy shifts have led to thousands of employee layoffs across the industry there's reportedly nearly 8,000 media jobs lost just this year that compares to 5,000 cuts between 2014-2017. while newspapers, magazines, and digital startups have taken the brunt, some big tv players have gotten caught in the fray as well to help make sense of all this, the media mayhem we're calling it, let's bring in steven, the media reporter and cnbc contributor ed lee and "new york times" just mogul. tighten. what do we call you these days >> i'm just a lowly reporter that's what i do. >> we can look backwards but i think what we want to do is figure out how to look forward.

so all we talked about in 2019 was streaming, streaming, streaming. that was like it what i want to know is what do you think is going to happen to streaming in 2020? >> you're going to talk about it even more. you're talking the launch of peacock, the comcast service hbo max from warner media. and disney plus is now up and running. so i mean, the gladiators have entered the arena. >> who's going to win? who's going to lose? >> netflix has already won that. >> already won >> they've already won. >> and they haven't lost as a result of the competition. >> so far, they haven't lost as a result of the competition. it's early days. it's going to be harder. their total addressable market they think is 90 million they're at 60 million in the u.s. it's going to be that much harder to get the last 10, 20, 30 million. >> just to be clear, that's now going to be an international story. >> so netflix really is an international business meanwhile, back home, you got disney you got at&t you got peacock coming into the fray so that's where these guys are

going to try to fight for battle for second place, third place. i think after third place, it's going to be really hard to sustain a streaming business where you're charging 10, $12 a month. >> at some point, the consumer is going to start resisting. >> so -- so okay so let's say netflix wins. you put them on your winner list. >> that's the winner list. >> you put disney plus on your winner list thus far. >> yes. >> from a brand standpoint. >> okay. now, make it more complicated. hbo max. time warner. at&t winner or loser list >> i'm not optimistic. i think that, first of all, i have a problem with the name i think you're -- you're taking one of the -- perhaps the greatest brand in history of television, hbo, and you're commodityizing it. the price point is high. >> i think it'll be a distant third place winner i agree with steve

the pricing is really high relative to the other two for one thing. >> where does hulu live? where does amazon prime live >> so i think amazon prime is something that can exist sort of on the outskirts yeah exactly because it doesn't need to win the way these other guys. >> you get free delivery on your stuff. >> but tell me about hulu because hulu is now also owned by disney. >> hulu i think will be sort of the adult streaming brand for disney plus. i think they'll put more of the fx shows there, abc news content, abc news documentaries. things that don't fit into the family-friendly brand of disney plus. >> i think the -- the fact that hulu is sort of a near-live service. it's a day after shows it sort of acts as a hedge against, you know, the cable operator still in some ways. i think that's the role hulu will play. >> peacock. >> so i think peacock supposed to be -- >> advertising-driven service as linear declines and netflix

rises and disney plus rises, there's that many fewer people to advertise so. so something like peacock is going to be a nice boon for madison avenue. >> there is a bullishness about advertiser-supported video and demand services. >> cnbc reported it now but variety and "the hollywood reporter" reporting steve burke. >> "los angeles times" confirmed it as well. >> intending to end his contract or when his contract ends in august what does that mean? >> i think the implication is that he's had a great run and he wants to go out on top and it's the future only going to get a lot tougher so, you know, he's done well and i think he'll maybe live off the fat of the lion for a little while. >> he's a great operator he's sort of turned nbc into this sort of power house after the comcast acquisition. he was also a comcast guy remember so i think in that way, i don't think it changes much. >> any merger predictions for

2020 >> not in 2020. >> not saying nobody merges but i think in terms of big, significant deals, i don't think 2020. >> any bankruptcies in 2020? >> i think what we're waiting for is it what media conglomerate will be absorbed by a tech giant. >> i think viacom cbs is the most likely target i think next year's too soon probably the year after that but then it's going to be like do the tech giants have a real appetite for this? >> we got to go but the buzz feeds. the vices. the vox's. >> they did their big consolidation and next year, they're going to see how far they can take it. >> the pressure on them is to find the content the consumer will pay for advertising isn't doing it it's not supporting these services that he ha >> the pressure on them is to find a buyer. >> i think that narrative is over for them. right now, they're not as attractive as they once were i agree with you. >> they've sold 150% of themselves already to investors. >> this was a ball thank you, guys.

we'll save the tape. have this conversation in a year steve, thank you a lot more on "the exchange" this afternoon can 13-year-olds catapult snap to a 33% rally clos closer look at the analyst call saying just that zblncht plus, apple hoping a genetic test, one day, can keep the doctor away. tech giant offering the service to employees for free. we'll tell you about all of the detail u to hear this actually. "the exchange" is back in two.

welcome back to "the exchange." i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. president trump hosting the president of paraguay at the white house. he blasted the house judiciary committee for charging him with two articles of impeachment, which will now go to the full house for a vote next week >> it's a witch hunt it's a sham. it's a hoax. nothing was done wrong zero was done wrong. i think it's a horrible thing to be using the tool of impeachment, which is supposed to be used in an emergency an old energy power plant was demolished in detroit today as the city makes room for a new fiat chrysler plant. the energy plant opened in 1915 but it hasn't been operational since closing in 2008. the demolition was a success no nearby homes or structures were damaged and on a sad note, danny

aiello, the blue collar character actor who appeared in "moonstruck" and "once upon a time in america" has died after a brief illness. he was also nominated for an oscar. danny was 86 years old you are up to date andrew, back to you. >> sue, great to see you as well thank you for that a lot more coming up on "the exchange" in just a moment a stunning new stat on apple. netflix's push to win out this award season could land them in hot water. taylor swift takes on private equity mpy'and another softbank backed coans valuation is slashed this piece is talking to me.

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it is rapid fire time here on "the exchange." want to catch up on a few stories that should be on your radar if they are not already. here with their take on all of it dom chu, kate rogers is here bill griffeth wearing sneakers on a friday. >> so are you. >> i'm wearing 'em, too. who you got? who are you wearing? >> who am i wearing? you want me to say >> yes. >> it's not an endorsement it's an online company called

grates they're very comfortable. >> comfortable and reasonably-priced, no less. >> who are you wearing >> i'm wearing lon vans and they're unreasonably price but i got 'em on sale. first up, jmp giving shares of price target of $20. upside of 33%. the firm positive on snap's engagement in reach saying it's attracting more international users and reaching 90% of the hard-to-capture 13 to 24-year-old demographic. that stock up more than 170% just this year timing is everything because guess what that stock was at the ipo. >> but one of the things i thought was key about this particular view was all that stuff you just mentioned is drawing advertisers in that advertisers are finding more and more attractive qualities for snap as a platform so that's the reason why you're going to see that monetizable

ability and the upside that comes with it. >> that 90% number i feel like i knew it but seeing it once again was a huge reminder of how sticky this is for that demographic in particular especially, as other new and emerging platforms like tiktok has become more and more popular. they're still on snap. so they can't get rid of them even though they're moving around and trying other platforms. >> i want to know who the 10% are. >> seriously where are they >> i mean, i have to say i struggle to come up with something snappy to say about this at this point you know i found a website this morning. the headline was how does snap work and what's the point and even the -- this was a young author obviously but even he was struggling to come up with a reason to want to participate in this whole thing. now, as dom points out, as long as advertisers are coming on board, then you've got something here. >> stick out your tongue and make rainbows. that's the point. >> or rabbit ears.

>> yeah. >> my kids love it. >> all of that and a profit would be nice, too. >> a profit would be nice. >> one day. >> a profit would be nice one day for the holidays topic two. bill board you got to hear this story you know about this? billboard honoring taylor swift with its first-ever woman of the decade award happened last night. the pop musician accepting the award with a 15-minute speech during which she addressed her ongoing feud with scooter braun and revealed her bad blood regarding private equity take a listen. >> lately, there's been a new shift that has affected me personally and that i feel is a potentially harmful force in our industry. and that is the unregulated world of private equity coming in and buying up our music as if it is real estate. >> wow wow. >> david reubenstein who remembers the blackstone bill the tax effort with carried interest 2007 this may be the new moment

remember, he had the birthday party. this could be something. is she right to do this? >> absolutely, she is right. now, i will say between scooter braun and taylor swift, you have to seemingly immovable objects and i'm not sure where the middle ground is in this case. but my money is going to be on taylor swift i think she's got the bigger -- >> i think something bigger is happening here that's like a -- a schoolyard little battle. that is almost irrelevant. >> what bigger is going to happen here? you see more private equity coming into the music business >> no. what i want to know is whether politicians, the public start looking at private equity in a different way. >> aoc tweeted about taylor swift a few weeks ago when this first happened because she put it on her instagram story. and as a swifty, this was the business crossover that i have personally been waiting for. she called out the carlisle group in her instagram post asking them for help saying they funded this deal she's at the absolute top of her game she is the artist of the decade. she has worked so hard in this industry she wrote all of that music.

and she wants a right to it. and she's speaking out it's a calculated risk for her. >> you know who else she mentioned in that speech hedge fund billionaire george soros by name is helping to finance that particular transaction. so this is political in so many different ways and now, you're putting protagonists in there that are perhaps lightning rods for a lot of folks. >> george soros -- >> are you saying private equity will be prohibited from buying in the music industry at some point? >> i'm saying if she's going to put the spotlight on private equity, whether people are going to start looking through their garbage for everything else, put the music piece almost aside. >> by the way, happy birthday to taylor swift. >> and she's a smart businesswoman. many people don't speak out on these issues so she's smart she knows what she's doing she knows exactly what she's doing. >> okay. next up, hit parade. netflix easily garnering the most critics choice award nominations. up for nearly double the amount of its nearest competitor. but that's getting the streaming

service some negative attention. "the washington post" reporting that netflix flew members of the voting body to los angeles and new york on pricey trips including stays at ritzy hotels and the four seasons supporters say this falls into the common hollywood practice of press junkets, while critics say netflix was spending money to win votes. >> are press junkets allowed anymore? i guess they are in the entertainment industry. >> we're certainly not allowed i don't think that mainstream publications are allowed to do that anymore. >> don't we think this is just a lot of sour grapes on the part of the people? that didn't get 16 nominations. >> netflix said it was akin to a press junket but there were no real stories that came out of it, which is what i guess a traditional press junket would be. >> it happened on wall street about 20 years ago all these different controversial stories about pay for commissions. that kind of thing

you take people somewhere in switzerland and they funnel you commissions. >> so can i just make -- i want to -- i'll speak to camera, as they say if you are the emmys, the oscars, academy, whatever it is, what you should do is you should require every single member who ends up voting in any of these things to have a disclosure form and they should actually have to disclose in each instance. >> just be transparent. >> i wonder what -- >> then you'd be knocked out -- you might be knocked out for disclosing but they need to know. >> i wonder what taylor swift would say about this. >> it would be good to find out. we should have her on the show next week. we should get our bookers going to get taylor on the program finally, apple hitting all-time high and on pace for its best year since 2009. and while wall street loves it back at apple's headquarters, tech giant looking to mitigate its workers' future health risks with genetic testing cnbc.com technology editor steve kovach joins us now with more on

that welcome to the table look at this what is going on here? they're going to let people or force -- is it force >> no, it's not forcing. it's an option so our colleague on cnbc.com reported this morning apple has these wellness centers they operate independently from apple. and now, they're offering free genetic tests. this is for preventive medicine to see if there's something on the horizon that might be wrong with you and it's through this company called color-genomics. >> okay. central question. >> yeah. >> privacy, right? >> right. >> so, you know, some companies -- some employees don't even want to wear these bands that fit -- the fit bit or a whatever, which would be tracked by a company this is like next level. >> well, that's exactly why apple set up these, they're called ac wellness centers and they set 'em up as a separate company for that very reason it's not like apple's going to

be able to snoop into your genomic data >> what you need to know is -- and i don't know exactly what they're testing with the -- with this particular company. but at least with ancestry and 23 and me, the amount of dna they're testing is so minuscule that the medical industry is very, very skeptical about the efficacy of what they're finding. in other words, whether or not you do have a predilection for breast cancer or prostate cancer or whatever it may be. so i wonder -- because you would need a -- an incredibly-expensive test to study a meaningful amount of your dna to get a -- a meaningful look at your own personal predilections for whatever diseases. so i'd be very interested to see, you know, how comprehensive this test is but i don't know. >> are you -- do you want the bosses here to be offering you this you want it? >> i would love that. >> i'm asking. i'm asking. >> i've already taken a dna test

pay attention. >> no, i'm with you. but i'm saying do you think this should be offered across the board? to everybody. >> what i'm saying is i'm not sure how accurate these tests are. >> to begin with. >> so, you know, are you really learning something that is useful in this case? >> i told bill this. but my friend's uncle took one of the dog dna tests and it said he was a labradoodle so there you go. i don't know how accurate that is i'm just saying. and i didn't say which brand. >> that was in a previous life. >> yes. >> okay. i'll tell you guys something crazy during our commercial break. >> you know what i'll tell it to the audience i have a friend who did the test who found out that her father was not her father talk about that later. dom, kate, steve come on. i thought that was pretty interesting. no i'm losing points here, folks. coming up, we got the consumer -- the consumer has spoken and one retailer is dominating when it comes to nearly every category we got the results of that new survey then at 2:00 p.m. on power

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welcome back to "the exchange." some of our movers this hour to tell you about shares soaring after the fda approved muscular dystrophy treatment. coming after the fda declined to approve the drug back in august. the company was hit by the export ban of some items to huawei broad com, ibd say was optimistic in growth in its semi-business from the current fiscal year. oracle also in the red the company revenue falling short of estimate. its current quarter outlook. separately, chairman said the company has no plans to appoint a second ceo following the death

of co-ceo mark hurd. save me time or enhance my time. that's what one consumer demographic wants to get out of shopping and they say one retail idog bteers initetr than the others we'll bring you that story and more in just a moment.

welcome back to "the exchange." it is the defining question of really the decade. are robots coming for your job we all want to know. the numbers are all over the place with the u.s. jobs exposure to automation estimated to be as low as 14% or depending on where you look, as high as 47%. a new study from the century foundation tooki foundation taking closer look at the nuanced wages. make no mistake. robots are coming. but the good news, we'll see if it it's good news. with us to discuss one of the authors of that report bill rogers, former chief economist at the u.s. department of labor and professor of public policy at rutgers university and we're thrilled to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> help us understand the results of this whole thing. >> it's got a little bit of everything for everybody like with capitalism, we do have some losers. >> yes. >> and we find it's really targeted in the midwest amongst

young, less-educated minority t. >> what kanind of jobs? >> working in manufacturing. they're doing welding. a will the of the competitors, pass and also done with high volume one level displacement you're taking them out of bad jobs working conditions and hopefully the economy in some areas get strong enough to absorb them those that become the programmer and that grows the economy too >> knowing what you know how based on this, where is it all going? there's a view also there's going to be a step change. it's all going to happen at one time that it's not going to be this gradual process that somehow in force o of a two-year period all of a sudden these robots aring

loog dc looking at images and at amazon in the boxes that it's going to happen like that. do you think that's how it will happen happen >> no. i think it's gradual that was not overnight it was a gradual movement where the economy also played a role >> all firms aren't the same i don't think we'll have a massive displacement >> you don't think the big displacement is coming >> no. if we have a strong economy with the majority of individual elsewhere and two get in front

of this. >> what's most aggressive. >> right now is manufacturing? right now we want to make a distinction. >> what's next on the list >> you also have ai on the other side there's two different populations. my colleagues who are doing the work and see finance >> law >> right >> held care >> that's actually interesting the displacement will happen quicker in white collar jobs being displaced by ai or blue collar jobs being replaced by robots >> that's an open ended question i think overall what i like about our work is it's got a bit

for everybody. we do see the adverse effect of it >> i like the case for optimism etch during the holiday season >> thank you so much coming up, a new survey idg wguintohat consumers are thinking a look at their favorite brands. your employees must love you. thank you. ah, you could say that. so how are things with you guys? great. thank you. thank you, sir. lunch next week? terrific. say hi to the team. will do. call my office, i will. -sounds good. alrighty. servicenow. works for you.

welcome back to "the exchange." it's 12 days until christmas amazon at the top of consumer brand. if you look at the stock performance of these retailers, amazon plummets from first to last what do you know why is this happening? >> i think the reason it's happening is amazon is spending a lot of money with their next same day as far as consumers are concerned it's increasing their spending >> the question i would ask is

given the spending that amazon is doing at this moment, relative spending that target may not be doing at this moment, what are we really going to be talking about? >> shares. >> is there an opportunity for amazon does it change completely? >> it's already happened they're up 23% frequency of amazon. this is happening in consumables when you think about grocery stores down the road and this focus group it's interesting to see women really wanted to engage with consumerables. it's a trust factor that's keeping them not doing it as much but it's huge open territory for amazon >> you love best buy >> i do. >> why >> we call it one on the omni super heroes if you look at the companies

target, walmart, amazon and best buy are on super heroes. you get a great product cycle coming in with new gaming consoles tvs. >> it's built in stock price >> i don't think anything is built in stock price you have the first apple 5g gone to be out. >> you say best buy is the greatest beneficiary of that or buy in a focused way in. >> i think in a focused way. >> i think walmart is in a race with amazon to really conquer this channel consumerables situation. >> we think walmart will be there. they're going to win >> i don't know if you saw the founder just gone.

does that mean anything to you >> i think walmart is unwinding a lot of what they did as far as ecommerce goes >> i want to thank you happy holidays to you. >> happy holidays. you get any gifts yet? >> a couple. like most people waiting until the last minute. >> that does it for us on the exchange power lunch starts now good to have you here. welcome everybody to "power lunch. here is what's new at 2:00 finally, a phase one trade deal between the u.s. and china the ink may not be completely dry but as you can see from this chart behind me it's been a whip s saw day for the markets. no one is releasing the text just yet other than the principals plus, the u.s. travel association saying there's a slow down, a slow down that will last through 2023 as fewer people are coming to the united states the person behind that