retain employees. >> and finally 2019 has seen a record revolving door in the c suite. more than 1400 ceos left jobs. that's a high dating back to 2008 to challenger ray and christmas. >> feeling skrept cal. >> me to out of time. >> "fast money" begins right now. all right. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking the rainy times square in new york, this is "fast money. i'm brian sullivan your traders tonight on the desk are tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly and dan prime rib nathan tonight on "fast money," a with wild ride on wall street new records all around but with the big hang-ups seemingly out of the way where does your money go from here plus the weaker retail sales number spooking bulls? but was the number as bad as some think is the american shopper alive and well we find out later. your chart of the week we'll find out what has b.k. so

kited about the -- settle down -- about the record run so much ahead. but we begin by taking a page right out much a christmas carol. we need wilfred to do this all year long, the markets have been seemingly haunted by three ghosts but this week we have watched them disappear one by one. first, the clarity that the fed will keep rates where they are throughout perhaps all of next year next last night's uk elections gave us clarity on brexit's path forward. no more questions. it's going to happen and this morning, perhaps the biggest specter of all over the market, trade and relief on tariff and more ag buying from china. sending the worry packing. mostly because nothing is quite signed yet with these market ghosts gone, effectively, tim, what the dickens are we to do. >> oh, wow, i don't know how to

respond. especially when you -- >> how about good job sufficientlien >> i think charles dickens could have written up a nice tale that led to a happy ending. and you can make an argument we've had the happiest of ending don't look at me like that, brian. we have a case where if you removed all the uncertainty, the next question is where is the market position snd and where are expectation sns you have to say they are extremely high. i want not as if you look at bull/bear indicators oh aaii or greed and fear indices and overall people are grabbing risk to year end. you had a retail number that missed jobless claims number that wasn't great cpi number very hot. people think that the fed is out of commission for 2020 you have to be clear that the fed is always a data point away from being back in the conversation so cigarette week, important week for markets but a week where i don't think you can just say everything is fantastic. >> maybe i do feel like steve people latched on to the slightly weaker retail sales number. >> definitely. >>en a made it a bigger deal

auto sales were good it wasn't like the consumer is on. >> the entire week traded off the weak retail sales number not off brexit or trade ob fed as we discussed at the top of the show. >> they have done that the whole month. >> yesterday -- the cyclical napes immense era names, chemical names paper names traded higher. today we had all cyclical names trading lower. that means they were paying attention to retail sales versus anything else which surprised me to say the least. >> i would say doctor -- from my view it was more a combo of the two. weak retail sales which people didn't expect. use it as a excuse or catalyst to sell. but to tiny tim's point. >> hey, ho. >> go with the theme of that i would say people are looking -- people looking at the deal and saying what kind of -- typy tim, college nickname. >> i tell you with brian's comment -- >> my point is i think the deal,

the so-called phase one deal today people looked at and said it's not much different than we had if there is any deal there and everybody unwound the kind of risk-on trade they had. if it wasn't for apple i would say the s&p would be done. >> what about you jacob marley. >> here is the think the position attention on sentiment and also the calendar. you think about this since early october when we supposedly had agreement on a phase 1 trade deal, that was the last bout of downward volatility the s&p 500 had seen it's been a slow grind up almost two and a half months now. here we are off the october lows up 11% up 26% on the year heading into a year all of a sudden you think the headwinds to global growth are taken away i'm not so certain about that. i don't have the answers and i don't know what we traded off or didn't trade off today. but i'll tell you this it feels an awful lot like lake 20172017 in '2018 after the tax cut in

december and the sentiment going into '18 we went parabolic up 8% in the first few weeks of january and then down about 9, 10% and took months to get back. >> trade deals feel like y 2 k and nothing happens. we got a deal and the market barely blinked. >> that's not eye. >> nold. >> hold on. >> but i wouldn't say it. >> what. >> the market moved yesterday. >> it blinked. >> the market has been moving. >> 15% since october i mean of course it's moved. >> i'm talking about on the news so either it was already priced in from the previous move or. >> don't yell at me brian. >> there is another leg up when the paper is actually signed because we don't actually have a -- >> i hear where you are going with this, brian i don't think this is about a not until the somebody sings that's circumstancely overweight i don't think we can say that

anymore i won't. >> you just did. >> injury this is a case where you got to it earlier which is the markets rallied since october 3rd since we had the last dip downward, the s&p up almost 15% in a straight line. that's a dynamic going to the year end where you have the seasonal stuff dan said it, the world is not a great place. there is the argument we maybe found bottoming. what's different to me, dan about now and the end of 2017 into '18 is you have parts of the market picking up steam now. you have some of the latest cycle cyclicals, resource stocks, some of the reflation trade, which is what i've been talking about the last couple days that have room to run to 2020. >> the key for me is q1 is everyone got -- i don't want to say got ahead of skis. i'm positive into year end i don't want a see reason to sell the market. there is no sell the news because there are other phases coming you don't want to get in front

of you've been run over every time you short the market. i think the test is q1 where we see where estimates are and where reality hits the pavement. that's the chance to sell the market we're not there. >> don't fight the fed. >> i guess. >> don't ever, ever fight the fed and a couple hundred billion in liquidity. >> so far that hasn't been the right move to steve's point we do have a market that is up a lot. that perhaps has gotten a little bit ahead of what earnings growth are going to be the point is, you better have that global economy kick in. this so-called phase one deal better get ceos out there saying i'm spending some money out there, build something, send some ships around the world. otherwise i do think q1 could be a problem. >> spot on, dan, listen to b.k.'s point it's not just the u.s. market. the japanese nikkei finally started to do something. europe done well the last 90 days every major index is up. >> think what it to a took in the mid-cycle adjustment to get these global economies like weather here

we had three rate cuts and had the fed stop q 2 and start qe. we see it ou of the eu and japan. if that's what it takes to get a 25% return on the s&p 500, fine. it doesn't mean we have solved any ills going on in the global economy right now. >> dan. >> i feel like just like looking through the lens of the s&p 500 is not speaking to the issues. in trade deal is not about soybeans and natural gas it's about what is this perceived imbalance of trade, okay since china joined the wt ottum 30 some years ago and they've been taking advantage of that's what it it's about. if you tell me you put all the tariffs in place out of a tweet. weaponizing tariffs and then roll 10 billion back that's the net difference it's not a deal, a win it's not anything. >> good closure for the market show. >> what. >> it's semi closure for the market. >> this is the good analogy, the north korea deal, remember singapore summit and he had this thing and he was going to walk

out a huge thing and that and that and nothing happened there is a strong likelihood we have the same thing here. >> i hear you but i said the paper is not signed yet. i wardson if there is another leg up. >> the markets trade on per semgs and reality where the middle ground is. >> you say the s&p today is the perception is we may not have anything. >> i would say the s&p up 27 li 26%. >> we raled into this over the last couple months. >> but it's up 26% >> hold on getting to josh in a second i don't want to be the grinch. at the same time the deal is talked about there is the threat, tim of bigger tariffs, new tariffs on european goods by the way. we sell to china about the same as the gdp -- hold on about the same gdp of delaware. >> we're creating another wall and then that wall will be taken over by bulls again. >> i'm saying the threat of tariffs what they are is not gone >> so, fw again this seems to be a tool this administration loves using. love tariffs, love to use trade restrictions, use sanctions. these are things that i don't

think are particularly effective in an economic sense from a market sense, and from a political sense -- and i think this may be what dan is talking about. winning a trade war that gets soybean deals to stay is politicly important. >> it's about ip they might be using soybeans anding a and everything else but it's about ip. everyone democrats and republicans agree it's about that. >> in march of 2018 and then. >> you have no other leverage though, dan. >> what's happened, dan, now we're here we have a deal literally pulling back some tariffs and buying moring a. >> it's about ip heading the right direction. >> it was a good discussion. it's friday. it's almost christmas. take it down. >> god bless us all everyone, breyen >> all right the biggest company in america may have just dodged a big bullet thanks to that trade deal josh lipton in san francisco with more of the details josh >> so, brian, a greenlight for

tech that's how some analyst describe president trump's decision today to cancel the next round of tariffs on chinese goods that had been set to take effect on sunday and one big company in the cross hairs of the new levies, apple, because those tariffs for the first time included smartphones. and that could have put tim cook in a tough spot either absorb the tariff and take a bottom line hit or raise prices and risk denting demand. red bush estimates they would have had to raise the price by $150 kbaking iphone demand here in the u.s.by as much as 8% other analyst i spoke to said even if levies had been imposed on sunday. cook might have earned exemptions after all they know the president thinks well of cook and referring to him as a great executive. and he didn't want to let the rival samsung from tariffs apple hit a new all-time high today. now up more than 70% this year on track for the baeft year

since 2009 in part analyst say that's because investors think cook seems to be well navigating this minefield of tariffs, earnings exemptions for the mack pro. and remember apple is also seeking exclusions for other tariffed products like the watch and air pods brian, back to you. >> josh, thanks very much. lets trade it. apple up 10 of the past 12 weeks a heck of a run. >> it's been on a tare you don't want to get in front of that. that being said if you are in this i don't think there is anything wrong with taking off a third here you have the explosive move today on the fact that tim, apple went out and talked to the president and said we don't want tariffs. that was on purpose. and apple benefitted from that but i think at some point you have to take profits off the table. >> what's interesting about apple is that this was the trade war stock that certainly was going to be in the cross hairs just like the semis and smh. what you found actually is that apple lowering price was a big deal in terms of jump starting

shipments and analysts off sides on the expectations. but then it became a services story. that's the reason apple outperformed and largely decoupled just like every other trade war stock or sector including semi conductors. >> for me when you look at the service number and think about how everyone came out as a wall of bearishness against the hardware company and services started on even in conservative estimates where you think the service number is going to go is pretty extreme to the upside goog forward. i've been long a while thinking about satisfying taking some off the table but i can't pull the trigger yet because 270 was the line in the sand and it blew past that. >> is it still a good value. trades at a 8-point discount trailing earnings to microsoft. >> trades at 21 times expectsed 2020 eps, expected to grow about 10% after being flat last year iphone units are not growing the third year in a row. you have to pay attention to

credit suisse analyst as a note saying that iphone shipments in the month of november down 35% year over year in china. mcwas the issue in the last q4 where apple had to preannounce negatively on january 3rd. i don't know how it sets up. you guys are right about services from a blended multiple rate but i'll tell you that gross margins are moderating, the prices -- they're going to be lower in china, okay asp is lower i know they don't brake it out could be an issue. i'll make another point. the stock up 95% from lows on january 3rd. in the history of u.s. stock market there's never an the equity gaining a half trillion dollars in a calendar year there is unusual amount of sentiment. >> how much is 5g going to power another 50, 60, 70 million iphone sales next year they roll out 5g. >> the price point will be so ridiculous and the service not

there to justify it. there will be no superspoik. there hasn't been one for years. >> adding the capital to it makes me want to stay long because no one explains it process is it about services blended pe. >> you don't buy it on the 5g promise. i think. on deck, the one picture that has b.k. here all fired up it's the chart of the week. it's been touching new records what that chart is ahead plus from our chart of the week to your call of the day, snap shares jumping on an upgrade but will the gains soon vanish we'll debate live as always from new york's mesquare, more "fast money" right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. it is friday, so that means it's time for your chart of the week. okay b.k., you are flagging a big move for the financials. >> yes so for the first time since the crisis, actually since 2007 xlf has hit a new high it's taken almost 12 years to get all the way back up here and what i think is interesting is a lot of people want to buy a breakout and nothing wrong with that but if you look at where the yoeld curve was when the financials tip topped out in

2007-2008 it was as flat as right now. and as the yield curve resteepened, the financials actually sold off. don't be fooled by financials breaking out and saying, hey, wait a second, if the yield curve steepens again they're doing well if you look back in history they don't tend to do well. and it's because when the resteepening comes that's when you get the potential for recession coming. >> i think that's a real good point. i would make a point though that when the banks -- the yield curve inverted in 2007 into -- you actually saw 2006 in 2007 you saw the banks outperformed during that period, which was a prelude to a terrible run. i'm not suggesting that now. what makes now an interesting time for banks is that banks are back to where they were precrisis in terms of capital distribution, in terms of dividends, ability to do buybacks remember the last round of stress test even jp morgan tried to fail that because they wanted to be as aggressive as possible that's bringing back big institutions into the sector

because they can pay proper divs. >> you look at the run in the banks, tax cuts and deregulation that's run its course. we're not seeing more of that. to your point that was picture perfect. capped out exactly the same spot where they did back then so i do believe you have to have a perfect world setup. and these returns have been great this year. i don't know if they can repel kait going. >> doesn't mean you sell short doesn't mean a banking kriez i just when a lot of people see something breakout from 10, 12-year highs they want to buy it in this case i use caution. >> i don't want to beat the same drum, tim seymour, the row petition 150 billion coming in on december 31st and more coming january 2nd. i know it's wongy, guys this is a big story. some people think nothing. some people think it's a lot where do you stand. >> i think it's a lot. we have talked about in on the show in the last couple days,

talked about it yesterday. you have the case where this type of liquidity has done two things fladed liquidity in the market pushed down volatility pushed people into the market this is a risk remember bus the minute the fed unwinds this they try to tell you this was not qe again, it was stealth qe it's role and important for the equity market. >> we are getting started on "fast money" and "options action." here is what's coming up next. >> announcer: looking for a snapback, shares of the social media company posting the biggest gains in almost a month. what's got one analyst so excited about the stock? later on "options action," it's one of of the best performing sectors of the year but is biotech poised for a breakout or breakdown? we have all that and more when we return. ♪

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hey welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of snap parent company snapchat jumping today after jmp boosted the rating on the stock to outperform it's your call of the day. analyst say they are confident in snap's ability to grow the user base, increase engagement and improve overall monetization grasso, you loved this a while >> nice picture of. >> you i've been in and out of the name currently in the name now. the ipo price was $17. i believe it's trading above that they put a a $20 price target. that's a good percentage move from here. plus they have a gaming platform launch as well i think people are coming back here, they threaded the needled op political ads between facebook and twitter, did it perfectly fact checking there. i don't think they have to do a hell of a lot right to really blast higher from here

the stock is up dramatically year to date but i still think it has a lot of green ahead of it. >> anybody disagree with that? >> no, you actually agree with that we talk about the $breakout. $18 was the double top in september. it's come off that you can get in now and play for breakout and get the momentum on it. >> i'll disagree, why not? i think you have a case where the company, the bar was low in monetization and usage trends. they have recovered. i think this move in snap could be attributed the move in facebook how about people- dsh the good news for people and see the social media space in terms of allocation there are not a lot of to do out there people want diversification. snap is getting the allocation it don't stev. >> this is a company expecting to do 1.7 billion-dollar in gap basis losing on net income a lot of the reason the tech ipos losing money down below the ipo prices

at some point this is an issue with snap if they can't improve the monetization, cut the income loss and get to profitability. >> okay good discussion on snap. the call of the day. time for the final trades. why don't we go around the horn and begin with you mr. tim seymour. >> a lot of time talking about retail sales, health of the consumer where are we in the cycle. when interest rates stay low, people are employed say what you want about the job market, home depot and lowes pulled back to 215 at a multiple now makes more sense for the company process. i like home depot. >> use snap as the final trade use it as a trading vehicle, trade it from $14 to $17 buy low sell a bit high sfwleer b.k. >> the three ghosts we had at the beginning of the show, inflation or at least the fed one of them they told you this week they want higher inflation. buy gold. >> big oa tonight. >> big oa. you don't hear much good about the millennials but we had the intern or page or whatever. >> will. >> the man, the myth the legend

one of the best. had a great time with here. >> he deserve a lot of credit. >> great kid. >> nice job, will. >> stick around, oa. american express tell you how to buy it with defined risk. >> look forward to it. all right, guys, thank you "options action" is next with every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled. unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. defy the laws of human nature. at the season of audi sales event.

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and accessoriesphones for your mobile phone. like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. - ( phone ringing ) - get details on this state program call or visit well, happy friday the 13th. "options action" fans and welcome om brian sullivan in for melissa tonight. we have a big show for you here is your lineup. >> i got 2,000 blanc american express cards right now. go. >> that's not the best way to make money on american express but thanks to today's trade news, dan nathan has a safer way. then. >> i'm talking about a lot of benjamins to be made with the biotech stuff. >> yup when it comes up like this at family functions, you know it's probably time to bail. carter worth