quick final check on the markets, dow looks like it would open up about 12 points. s&p 500, we'll call it off, but just call it almost -- nasdaq up about six points right now make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. take you to a live shot of capitol hill, where the house of representatives is about to gavel in and where we expect a vote later today on hr-755, the impeachment of the president of the united states. good wednesday morning withing to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. we're coming off five days of gains and another one today would give stocks the longest win streak since march and april. we're going to be faced whether we like it or not with the blizzard of headlines all day long and an hour of debate on the rules and then six hours of debate on the resolution

and probably a vote we expect somewhere between 6:30 and 7:30. >> it is important that everybody remember that it is -- i'm not saying it is a side show there will be people who are going to be talking about and i heard some of them today saying, listen, there could be a surprise in the senate, might be some defections. i don't see it that way. i look at -- i only have history -- not a lot of history with these things, but day by day of when clinton was impeached in trial -- >> and anniversary of which is tomorrow. >> yes, it is. and you got that period from january 7th, 1999, february 12th, really the most turmoil and that's where you -- at the height of when things were bad, the nasdaq lost .18% s&p down 3.0 dow down 2.6 and after that the market roared. if you want to know when to buy, might want it buy into the teeth

of tomorrow, maybe even next day. because it is just a great opportunity. >> it doesn't feel as though when it comes to the markets that there has been any real impact from this >> no. none whatsoever. >> there wasn't last time either but, of course, last time was the leadup to the dotcom period, beginning -- starting, could say, listen, we got 5g you can create any scenario. what matters is that it didn't matter because you knew what was senate was going to -- >> it was -- the markets have not been paying attention, focused much more on china trade or the upcoming election in terms of movement of things. >> absolutely. >> not the impeachment proceedings. >> you want to know the truth of what the date today, versus what -- how you would do if you waited over a period of the next few months, you got a 56% return

on the na nasdaq, 21% in the d. so obviously we can say that's all because there was no impact. or it is all because the fundamentals are good. and i would say the fundamentals are getting better that's my view not a lot of people agree with that and that's more important than this too there is -- it is very difficult to -- how do you rate democracy versus money i'm pro democracy. i'm supposed to be about money money is good. >> trying to remember where we at or near all time highs in -- on 12/19/98? >> yeah, and we kept running and running and running. there was a blip a blip january 7th, to february 12th, 1999, which is where the window where we are exactly right now you got a couple percent decline you had to buy that decline.

it was like today. we're not talking, you know, fedex reported last night, horrendous number, paychecks reported good number, general mills scored a good number and no one is going to care today, but they will tomorrow. >> i think they'll care today. >> you think so? >> i do. >> fedex will -- >> without a doubt. >> i have a wrap on fedex. >> thinking all night about what your view would be -- >> i have a hilarious wrap on what they are. i don't feel like i should do that at 9:04 this is impeachment day. >> counterprogramming is never a bad thing. don't know >> really? >> okay. >> it is -- you want me to go fedex, 490,000 -- >> before you do, let's check in, given the process and the importance and seriousness of the process today, elan mui is on capitol hill. good morning >> reporter: good morning. we have heard hours of testimony, there have been weeks of hearings, endless letters

back and forth between republicans and democrats and the white house. it all boils down to the day when the house will vote on these two articles of impeachment against president trump. right now weigh peer to be in a procedural vote that was brought up by republicans. this is part of theirstrategy to draw out these proceedings. we are expecting one hour of debate on the rule that will govern the eventual debate on the house floor over impeachment, and then six hours of debate on the articles themselves, a vote coming late tonight. but time on the hill is very fluid. as you can see by the fact that republicans already bringing up a motion to adjourn for the day, that could draw this out even further. now, what we are hearing in tone from house speaker nancy pelosi, she has emphasized the solemnity of the day, she said it is one of the most solemn powers granted by the constitution that they are exercising today.

republicans, the president, coalescing around a message it is democrats who are declaring an open war on democracy that's how the president put it in his letter to congress and to the speaker yesterday, so i expect to hear a lot of emotion on the house floor today, a lot of intense passion, and both parties unifyingaround a message, that is something that leadership has tried very hard to ensure that all the members will be falling in line and you'll see the fruits of the efforts today on the floor. >> which will bring us to january and mcconnell's strategy, which at this point we would characterize how >> reporter: right now it seems that a trial in the senate would begin around january 6th, that seems to be the date that folks are coalescing around, no christmas trial is expected in the senate it is expected that the house managers, the house democrats will have a chance to present their case before the senate and the white house will have a chance to defend itself through

its attorneys. the big question then, after we get through those proceedings is will the senate call any witnesses? there has been a fight between minority leader chuck schumer in the senate and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell on whether or not to take that action you need 51 senators to agree to it so that decision will be made, once senators are faced with the impending trial and have heard both democrats and the white house present their case that is the outlook for what happens in the senate, we do expect that to be wrapped up by the end of january the outcome as you've been saying, why the markets haven't been reacting to this, we know that the senate is highly unlikely to remove president trump. but we will still go through the political theater of all of this, democrats saying that's important to upholding their oath to the constitution >> thanks, we'll be relying on you heavily today.

it is historic we'll turn to fedex as jim said, down sharply in the premarket after the quarterly miss, issuing disappointing guidance company cites factors including higher costs from expanding six and seven day delivery the loss of amazon's volume and some pretty candid talk on the ca all. >> oh, boy i found myself feeling bad for fred smith investors may not. but this is a 490,000 person startup. they're offering a new thing called weekend, saturday, sunday brand-new product. they have a european business that they still haven't gotten the costs under control. they are almost what you would say losing money on some of their industrial shipments america online would pay -- was paying me $2 million, okay

listen, pay $2 million for content. got a great business going there. one day, guy by the name of bittman, bob pitman, comes to see me, he's got this great deck, it is terrific, i can't believe, this partnership is so good i get to the last page, and it says i pay him $2 million. he no longer pays me that's what i thought of when i read this. not only did they lose a great client, but the client is now a competitor >> yes. >> how do you make a business when you got the number one e-commerce company, your competitor so i feel bad for him. there is good read through with u.p.s. this is a horrendous time to be a fedex exec budget 33 million cyber. they -- it is 37 million that's a gigantic miss in how much -- literally how much e-commerce you're at that's what happens in the startup. this is like a masa son company. not by their fault it is, like, let's go big or go

home >> well, you could argue that there should have been perhaps some planning that would have taken account the changes that were taking place. this was at -- big criticism of fedex has been it is an airline, it is an airline. >> it is bad airlines, dc-10 s, those go like this. >> got too many planes. >> the wrong planes. >> a world where there is no growth in the industrial economy. >> no growth in the industrial economy, they repeat -- which is just mentioned repeatedly, growth in basically -- the questions were not rebellious. the questions were respectful. >> they were. >> they said, the costs are going up per what they ship, but they're not making any more per what they ship, some of that is amazon they don't want to say that. amazon is a subtle, you know, they should have planned better. this e-commerce world, you have to literally just say, you know

what, this is a gretzky thing, figure out where the puck is going and they're where the puck is don't know they got it wrong. they don't have the right equipment. how do you do saturday and sunday out of nowhere. >> not easy. >> startup. >> they did mention precision railroading. >> he didn't call up precision railroading initially. >> he talked with how it is a -- hunter harrison came in, he said it is like the rails, rails are not analogousbecause they're quasi monopolies here they're going up against what was his biggest client. he said it was never more than 2% i understand that. but the precision railroading, they talk about how could you not cut, cut to the bone, like they do in the rails morale would be -- morale came up morale per share >> yeah. >> i'm over here i'm over here. >> sorry

>> morale per share. >> speaking of where the puck is going, jpm cuts to 147, which is essentially where it is now. is it fair value here? >> it shouldn't be public. shouldn't be like they got to, like, they got to sort this thing out they got to sort -- is it -- look, alan graph, on the conference call, does says, listen, it is the bottom he comes out and says it is the bottom great quote there. he goes, by the way -- some great stuff in this, alan graph says i'm frustrated, i'm sure investors were frustrated. we're here at the bottom and i think that this is what the fifth bottom call. so another two or three bottom call and they're there >> well, oppenheimer was moved to lower its rating to -- they -- now it is helpful to lower your rating. >> look, like i said, i feel bad, i don't want to be facetious here no one can do, no one can do

i keep hearing that fred smith is too old, he should retire fred smith, whatever it doesn't matter. any one of these people on this call, they're all smart people this is not a company of morons. >> super smart. >> super smart. >> really smart. >> it just doesn't matter, this is happening with the speed of light. who could manage this? honest to god, david, who could manage 700,000 people and they have to lose money in order to please the customers? this is really a hard thing. can we take the pressure off him for one second and just say, yes, he didn't plan right, they are disappointed, but i don't know who could do it. >> that's what the money is for, to plan for this kind of stuff. >> yes, so, i mean, i don't know, say they can make 10, i don't know, and give 12 multiple it is the hardest -- it is easier to value tesla and netflix than it is fedex right now. >> given -- >> came up with $120 price

target >> nothing is better plus, they had all their expenses for this period in the quarter that they had. and they had all these expenses for the christmas period so it is arguably that graph didn't say it is the bottom and this time it sticks. but they just underestimating the volume of e-commerce and the demand for saturday and sunday, a horrible business. >> yeah. >> meanwhile, the impact on the transports between this and boeing, can we rely on the transports as a tell still too many internal execution storys >> boeing finished flat yesterday, flat. on the worst case scenario finished flat. the institutions went -- they're lap dogs this he remind me of when you're at the grey hound racetrack, and that mechanical rabbit falls and you're, like -- >> they're -- >> i saw the rabbit fall. >> willing to wait for the years that are the outyears where it is all going to be fine. >> mechanical rabbit keeps -- monticello, saw it happen. they just love it. they're rabid dogs they want to sell fedex.

and they want to buy boeing at any price. how's that >> sounds look a plan. >> yeah. >> maybe not a good plan, but sounds look a plan. >> we're going to get jim's mad dash and count down to the opening bell jim's theme about upgrades continues today whether it is delta or lilly we'll get to those look at the premarket here as we're on track for six straight days of gains. the longest since march and april with eight and, we'll stay on top of the historic impeachment vote on capitol hill when "squawk on the street" continues. this piece is talking to me. yeah? so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity. i see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah.

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mad dash as we count you down to opening bell hump day we refer to as wednesday also. mad dash time, at&t. >> yes, citi has a piece out, it is amazing, because that it is saying is elliott partners is going to be right. they're talking about several key takeaways that are amazing stronger asset monetization, there are a lot of gems just buried within a company. metrics poised to improve in wireless and entertainment and they're just talking about basically they can -- this is -- even their core business is doing better so if all this is true, they're exiting with favorable financial progress, the stock deserves to be considerably higher. >> they're happy to see research like that.

they want to believe that will be the case. >> could you believe it is the case >> i think you have to see what the results are. listen, john stankey, the company's coo, the ceo of the warner media unit, has said nothing is sacred, those are my words. he used different -- in terms of where they look for costs, they are going through everything on that -- on that front. but most importantly, you got to get the company working together and that creative part of the company, not that they aren't creative in wireless, but that key part, you got to keep people engaged, and believing and that's where some of the questions are -- >> let's go there. citi says we believe that quarterly video losses are poised to improve significantly. that's the leverage. >> that's directv. >> i'm saying that -- >> they do believe it has in terms of -- you got to remember, a lot of churn because there were people in discounted plans, that has been churning down but

off and so there is a hope that that is going to begin to level off. you're not going to see these kinds of subscriber losses that we have seen, which were -- which have been missed >> back to moffett nathan sonso. all the things happening may not be. >> just to get the 1% topline growth you need, they'll rely on wireless to perform at a rate it hasn't previously. >> i think people should read the citi, it is very important but the dividend makes -- this is one where are you worried about the dividend it is crazy. it is a very good piece and i like it. i think it is thoughtful. >> the interesting year ahead for at&t. >> it will be. >> who would think that would be as controversial as this 50 versus 30 >> all right we got an opening bell coming up right at you here, ten minutes away from that don't go anywhere. more "squawk on the street" right after this

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look at the premarket here, nine trading days left in the year 30 record closes for the s&p so far. we'll see if we have another one today when we have the opening bell in seven minutes. gold!

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you're watching cnbc's "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world where the opening bell rings in four minute as we watch fedex, general mills, the house vote today on impeachment and more lilly making news on "mad money" last night. if you missed it earlier, back and forth between the company and elizabeth warren warren did say that the company slamming eli lilly had it comes to drug prices they released a survey of 400 pharmacies which concluded that the generic insulin is widely unavailable. warren says the report shows lilly, quote, not lived up to its promise to provide a lower priced insulin to patients who need it. david rick shot back on "mad

money" last night. >> that's nonsense. >> nonsense? >> yeah. so -- >> two senators, only 100 of them. >> i haven't read the details of the report, i read the press release. i can tell you what the facts are today. many policymakers encouraged us to lower the price of insulin. >> right. >> we did that we launched a half price of our best-selling product, but only one out of four americans with part d coverage and commercial coverage next year will have access to this this doesn't show that we didn't try. we did try you can order this product today from your pharmacy this shows what is broken in the rest of the pharmaceutical system. >> i thought this was so important. because, first, in terms of timing, senator warren, senator blumenthal, their document came out in terms of timing, the moment that the lilly, very positive lilly analyst meeting ended. i thought it was vicious i did. but this is what is important. when i went over it with david, ceo, it is pretty clear that the

system, whether it be the pharmacy benefit managers, the drugstores, just don't want to adopt it and to have him be the victim, and i don't know, they checked 400 drugstores, a question of where they checked them, did they check them in montana, in places where it is just not the sample one thing is clear, he's got the thing. if you want it, you can get it but the system isn't bent on having cheaper drugs even if they're made by the same company it is an outrage to blame lilly seemed like to me an unfair thing to do. >> yeah, today morgan stanley comes out and upgrades to overweight they go from 116 to 150. >> great. >> they say that sentiment around r&d will get better >> of the major pharmas, i could argue they got the most new drugs. i thought it was novartis. i no longer feel that way, novartis stumbled. but my travel trust owns

novartis ricks has got a machine. i am the spokesperson for the american migraine foundation, unfortunately, they have a new migraine drug, there are 30 million people who suffer. and they got a pill. and the pill is widely going to help people, that's going to be available probably in the first quarter. >> that's not out yet. right now it is still -- >> when it comes out >> that could be -- >> i take the shot. >> people unfortunately suffer from -- >> 30 million. hundred of millions of hour of work david emphasized the number of women who lose time at work and this pill is going to be -- i think it is going to be the answer not in any of the numbers, which is foolish 30 million people might take it. >> make sure -- make sure your insurance company will pay for it that's got to be -- >> i think they will pay for it. >> we should mention you're a spokesperson for the -- >> i am the spokesperson we're amazed at the lack of awareness about the number of people who can take -- who can

take the current needle, 27 days where you do not have migraines for most people, there is three different versions, and there is almost no one, the doctors -- the doctors don't know about it. >> lilly is one to watch today opening bell, the s&p 500, the cnbc real time exchange, at the big board today, rosenblat celebrating its 40th year as an nyse floor broker. at the nasdaq, advanced energy industries you got your plate full today too between t-month,. >> fiat peugeot is interesting we'll get to -- we're going to get to -- we're preparing some things still in terms of the trial. which is continuing this morning, charlie ergen yesterday and today. >> fca. >> only what we have seen this morning, they recut the deal in part to try to deal with the national security review that conceivably would take place

here in the united states. >> right, right. >> it is going to create the merger of fiat and chrysler and peugeot, one of the largest auto companies in the world >> and successful. >> you think so? >> i think so, yeah. >> a lot of costs can come out. >> yes. >> not about layoffs, but just costs. >> the layoffs story is rather amazing. the railroad layoff story, deet mand for layoffs by the analysts for fedex, the notion that industrial america and industrial world is not doing that well with the exception of one of the great stories, possible resurgence in europe. >> yeah, you have been talking a bit about what you think is a resurgence in europe if we do get or i guess we have gotten phase one of the trade deal, can we -- hasn't been signed yet. >> no, but -- >> until it is signed -- >> not only not signed, the chinese made no specific reference to this deal last night. >> oh, geez. >> and the journal has an interesting -- about the actual numbers in terms of what we're

saying, the increased exports to china would have to hit numbers that they have never even come close to >> time is running out. >> and wonder how much we can actually really do in terms of the 200 billion above our highest number ever in terms of exports, not to mention agriculture is an important part of that. but, if in fact it does, you made the point, i think, that just starting to see some signs of turn around in germany. >> yes >> and other places in europe. >> for the third straight month. >> yes. >> business sentiment. >> fedex did not say that germany necessarily has turned but use the -- this was, i thought, really important. he goes that the -- the ricochet bullets of the u.s. china trade war in europe, they didn't count on it, but those could end ricochet bullets i thought that was a very good term probably the most positive thing that came out. >> the same answer he had, precision railroading and ricochet bullets >> it was entertaining. >> agile mind.

>> yes >> yes >> needs more agile fleet maybe. i don't know. >> they need less -- they need less commerce. they would do better with fewer -- >> that's not a good sign when you're hoping your business will -- >> if you're mcdonald's, we sold fewer hamburgers >> shares down over 8%. >> suboptimal situation developing. >> u.p.s. getting dragged down a bit. >> has to be read through is just -- there is no way, and i think david abney spent the money ahead, the ceo of u.p.s., also someone who comes on our air quite a bit, david. >> he does always happy to have him. >> let's contrast, i want to be positive for a second, despite the stories in the journal, they hate trump so much, it is almost hilarious. >> murdoch's journal. >> he does the times piece, which says basically there is no deal and if there were a deal, it is bad

for everyone paychecks, except for xi, xi is the big winner whatever paychecks, small to medium sized business, doing quite well, cintas, uniforms, small to medium size business doing quite well, that's a continual theme, but to cater to small and medium sized businesses, if you're fred smith, if fedex is not good, that's the guys that sell the little packages, they come to your house. >> how about the theory that amazon is going to bang fedex down so much and then pick them up. >> holy cow. >> instant logistic network. >> the whole foods strategy? >> yeah. could we walk in one day and see that happen? >> what do you think amazon plays with what, 1% loan? >> i -- i would be shocked. >> i'm putting you on the spot right now. >> you would be shocked? >> yeah. >> there you go. >> very surprised. >> you're the m&a guy. >> it is not something i -- certainly nobody is talking about that just an idea

>> by acclimation, they love your statement here. >> amazon continues to be relentless that's all i'll say. >> you know why there is no inflation in this country? amazon amazon won't let you raise the price of freight how is that possible how is that possible >> the journal at time says that story about people selling garbage on amazon. >> i'll give you funniest one, want the funniest one today? giving it to you, there is research today about facebook, which says that basically instagram is the gold standard all of that hoopla about how bad zuckerberg is, no. it is the gold standard instagram. the -- what people didn't count on, like dog food, the customers just won't stop eating it. they don't care about any of this political stuff instagram, the customers want it, it is where the advertisers want it. >> why can't we bust through 200

though if we have been stuck here for a while. >> i don't know. this online advertising piece by deutsche bank is so important and powerful that i felt that fedex should go through. big blue resurge ens, durable in the 2020 i first read this, i said they're talking about ibm. used to be big blue. now it is facebook they say the gold standard, mark zuckerberg, he gave that speech. i don't want to say no one cares, no one cares about impeachment, but the advertisers don't care and the users don't care what do we do? we castigate them? and say, but, you know, we may not like them? hate them or like them, but they're doing well 270 target it doesn't matter what he does people love instagram. how many times do i have to watch cat and dog instagrams by my wife. she doesn't talk -- doesn't talk about free speech, talks about cats, with short legs. >> that's fascinating.

>> and dogs with short legs. there is a name for them. >> if you think it is related, citi takes twitter from 45 to 36 i wonder if you think there was some -- >> twitter and snap, they -- i don't know this company is running away with it. you're right what can't it get through 200. today is the day th it never even mentions the fact that sacha baron cohen talks about some unsavory advertisers in the 1936 period that would be welcome by zuckerberg. >> it is -- listen, don't -- it is still an important debate going on. >> it is important, but it is abstract and obstruse. who else is there? who matters? the users matter and the -- the consumer -- the package goods industry is moving very aggressively toward instagram. they don't care about it either.

what are we going to do here, david? >> i was talking to my son, 17-year-old who put a limit on his own instagram time, he hits it every day i was happy he did that, by the way, but good for you. i think it is an hour. >> you didn't tell him to do that >> no. >> my daughter got rid of it. >> ready to go >> sacha baron cohen said, these companies won't fundamentally change because their model relies on more engagement and nothing generates more engagement than lies, fears and -- >> he did say, important minister of propaganda, during a period of the third reich, would love facebook and everybody should -- i don't know what to say. it is a very -- sacha baron cohen is not funny into the adl speech, but it just doesn't seem to matter. and so there is just a -- this kind of ethereal debate with the

speech. >> social externalities. >> targeting is important. that's something that zuckerberg has to examine i just -- when i hear this thing is the gold standard, people love it, but it says to me, i totally understand why zuckerberg is saying, hey, look, you know, caveat emptor. >> an update regarding impeachment. eamon javers is outside the white house this morning good morning. >> reporter: it has begun over on the house side of capitol hill that is moving forward here at the white house, though, things are relatively quiet. i checked in the west wng a coup couple of minutes ago, it does not appear the president hasn't come down from the residence yet, not in the office this morning. he is venting some of his frustrations over twitter about what is happening today. and the expectation he's going to get impeached he said, can you believe i'll be impeached today by the radical left do nothing democrats and i

did nothing wrong? a terrible thing read the transcripts this should never happen to another president again. say a prayer the president has suggested that he will not be watching all of the wrangling that the rest of the nation will be watching today up on capitol hill there are just a couple of events on his public schedule today, expected to get an intelligence briefing later today and will depart the white house this afternoon, but between those events, hours of unscheduled time, aides are not telling us what the president is going to be doing during those hours and the official told me the president will be holding internal meetings and make something phone calls but not saying what meetings those are or who he'll be calling on the phone. meanwhile, we will probably get to see the president this afternoon when he leaves for that rally tonight in battle creek, michigan, he's going to depart the white house late in the afternoon, we may hear from him at that point and official here told me this morning that they believe this is setting up

for just about the perfect juxtaposition this afternoon as the president will be speaking in front of an adoring crowd. >> thank you we'll come back to you to bob pisani, see what's moving this morning >> 2 to 1 advancing to declining stock, breadth of the market is terrific new highs on the advance to decline line that is important. that means the rally is broadening out here. the leaders, china stocks, they had a nice rally in the last week or so eight month highs. emerging markets sitting near new highs here, semis generally doing very well. micron another good day. consumer staples strong, general mills, good earnings report. industrials on the weak side this is fedex and u.p.s. to a lesser expense, speaking of fedex, we're trying to figure out if the global economy is bottoming out. that is a main theme why the market has been so stable and moving up recently want to pay attention to what fred smith has to say about

global economy here. tale of two economies. eurozone, manufacturer stabilizing at a low level germany still weak china, some opportunity in the second half of 2020. still weak in the first half better in the second half. trade volume should return to positive growth in 2020 assuming the trade wars don't intensify you paint this picture, signs clearly of some kind of bottom, this is according to fred smith. jimmy has been talking about the fact this is a specific fedex story here i want to show you, there is fedex and united parcel in the last year. look at that spread. fedex, down here for the year, last year, down 12%. u.p.s., they're up 23% in the last year. that is an enormous difference between two competitors, shows you some of this, good part, fedex specific here. we have better visibility. that's the point in why the market is doing so well. i mention the four horse men moving the markets overall here. number one, the fed neutral, put up the next full screen, the fed is neutral that's number one.

we have seen recession chances low overall. number three, the trade deal, let's call it a trace for the moment, a market believes there is one and global growth. the clear bottom, still a little bit elusive, but people becoming to believe that. we a global fund manager survey out yesterday from meryl lirill lynch. yesterday the story, the fund managers globally from bank of america, overweight equities 31%. that's the highest it has been in over a year underweighting bonds, 48%, that's the highest underweight in a long, long time how about this is the most important thing, 68%, no recession in 2020, that is way up from just a month ago and here, profits will improve, 60% in 2020. that is a huge, huge move, big change in just the last month. a lot more optimism. on boeing here, little more stability in the boeing picture here a lot of people freaked out yesterday by some comments 0.5% hit the gdp

that will bounce back here the companies that were -- suppliers to boeing a lot more stable today than they have been in the last couple of days david, back to you. >> bob pisani there covering all things let's cover now the ongoing trial, the states versus t-mobile and sprint trying to get that deal stopped by a judge saying it is anti-competitive. yesterday important day, one we have been waiting for. charlie ergen, founder of dish, the chairman, taking the stand he also -- i think we have entered court today as well. there was a portion of testimony that was going to be done in private. and then coming back out to the public there he is. arriving mr. ergen. this morning as he gets ready to take the stand there. he has, i'm not sure -- i don't believe it concluded as yet, trial resumed yesterday at noon. and then again today at 8:30 as i said with first the private -- they were going to be sharing some things they didn't want

known and then the defense or the plaintiffs attorneys will take over. yesterday, interesting testimony. all of it of course designed to show that dish is going to be a robust competitor in the wireless market nationwide in the 5g and will start right away at least given the boost mobile platform and the capacity sharing agreement it has in place with t-mobile, all of which, remember, was negotiated by the department of justice in fact, during the back and forth, during his testimony, during the questions and answers from mr. ergen, he indicated, the doj got a good deal, they kept pushing and pushing and pushing and it helped us in terms of giving us a leg up when we get started right away. he also went on to discuss just what is at stake for his company and address those skeptics who say, you know what, you amassed a lot of spectrum, but never hit the buildout requirements. ergen saying that's not true

he said if for some reason the skeptics were to prevail and didn't build it, that being the network, everything we have done as a company for 39 years, the 12 billion spectrum assets, over 2 billion of fines for the american government that they have to pay, they don't hit some certain requirements, would come into play. it would be financial suicide and he said, so, we're not suicidal interesting timeline that he also shared in terms of what they see 2020, they want to build out their first core and first city wide network they're going to be rely on the capacity sharing for some time it has got a timeline to it, and then starts to go down 2021, dozens of cities, grow the subscriber base. 2022, 10,000 towers and cover 50% of the u.s $8 billion, that's down, originally he said 10. now closer to 8.

i can't tell you how many people think that number is so low. >> that's way low. >> that's what he keeps coming back to. not going to be a problem for financing. hasn't signed commitment letters but have highly confident letters from morgan stanley, deutsche bank, jpmorgan, won't raise the money until he needs it that is dependent on this trial, that's why it is so important. because if in fact they do get the go ahead, he will begin as well, will mr. ergen we'll be watching today and listening, of course, as well. bring you whatever is said as soon as we can in terms of further questioning and answers given the plaintiffs are now going to be requesting mr. ergen. very interesting testimony from him. and, again, just saying, hey, we're going to get started right away, and he also talked about the fact that they're not going to -- the way they're going to price things is forward pricing. they'll lose money in the short-term to make it up over the long-term, won't pay price at least initially based on

marginal cost. >> i think people are underestimating how this will affect every american. every american will be impacted by this. >> that is true. >> a great deal at stake. >> this is one where you could actually impact the cpi. >> most important bill anybody pays. >> you're the only one covering this thing most people are covering the newspapers are determined to cover how the trade deal is not good or something. >> we're covering it and we'll have more. >> much more important, the trade deal, in terms of -- in terms of the wallet. >> it is important, no doubt. >> let's head to the bond pits, that's important too rick santelli. rick >> good morning, david great report look at some one week charts, subtleties, but important ones look at one week of 2s, just flat lining as we go into the end of the year and the important issue is unlike the rest of the curve, it is where it is holding at 160 now to the long end ten year note yields, upward drift to the

consolidation, and 190 seems to be the issue we're toying with it again look at bunds, on the far left, minus 22, that was this week's high we're still close to it. it was also about six weeks ago the highest close since july so important technical level dollar index, it is getting a bit of a wave to the upside. you remember, closed about a penny and a quarter lower than this, at one point, up over 3 % on the year. finally, corporates, investment grade are up almost 15% total return this year look at high yield year to date, investment grade, high grade is now add on, meaning whatever treasury is you add on less than 350 basis points on investment grade, less than 100. these are very narrow. there is no logic going into year end in the capital markets. overnight liquidity by the fed seems to be taken care of for now.

carl, jim, david, back to you. >> rick, thank you. still to come, the economy trade and the path ahead for rates. stay tuned for an exclusive with new york fed president john williams dow's gains withering at the early open, dow up 18, being led by boeing and home depot who says our bank isn't tech enough? everyone, look at your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. why the delay? cognizant is helping banks use digital technologies at scale to advance speed to market.

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jim, what's on mad tonight >> we'll cover impeachment including stocks that did well third best stock during the impeachment of clinton come on, we talked about it. you did a whole segment on it. >> dish? >> yes the third best maybe history will repeat itself >> isn't it amazing? >> dish. >> i find that unbelievable. >> what. exciting fedex. i'm going to send some fedex packages so i can see them lose money. >> might hurt them >> we'll see you tonight

"mad money" 6:00 p.m when we come back the latest on the impeachment developments as the house is still obviously gaveled in exclusive with new york fed president john williams. dow is down 37 invested at a great rate.s auty that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk

good wednesday morning welcome back to "squawk on the street". we got a record high on the s&p early the this morning settling back just a little bit a lot to watch as the house is expected to vote on impeachment tonight and fedex is a big story. >> our road map start with a historic day on capitol hill what does it mean for the economy and your economy >> fedex is falling flat that stock sinking ahead of the final holiday push >> we'll have an exclusive with new york fed president john williams less than two weeks of trading left in the year >> let's start with the impeachment process ahead of that historic vote we expect sometime this evening. good morning >> reporter: good morning, carl. the republican strategy has been on display today, just about since the house was gaveled in

this morning house minority leader kevin mccarthy just forced road procedural vote. andy buying the introduced a motion to adjourn. we're here now an hour into the legislative session and only just now appearing to get to the debate over the rules for today much less the articles of impeachment themselves both democrats and republicans have been girding themselves for this kind of procedural battle for weeks. that's why diana is presiding the floor. she's tough and expected to enforce these rules. gop leadership began messaging this back in october after a muddled response to the impeachment inquiry. they have been meeting every week bringing in staffers and constitutional lawyers to lay out the case against impeachment. they got a handy list of tips how to talk about this the result is we're not likely

to see any republican defections today. this will be almost entirely a party line vote. we do expect to hear from house speaker nancy pelosi once debate begins on the articles themselves and she will preside over the articles. she says this is not about politics this is about protecting the constitution. back over to you >> i saw an account that all but four of democrat districts that trump won, will vote aye there are some defections. >> congressman pearson to vote against the articles of impeachment. he voted against the impeachment inquiry to begin with. and there's also of course jeff van drew who voted against the impeachment inquiry and now said he's changing parties and moving over to the republican side. authors some of the defections we do expect to see from

democrats. pelosi has been very clear she wanted to give some of those vulnerable members in red states and red districts the space the to vote their conscience and it seems that effort has paid off as we've seen some of those front line members fall in line behind the impeachment vote. so the number of democrat defections will be smaller than folks anticipated. >> all eyes on impeachment in the house today. given we've seen the spending bill move through the house, usmca, what else is on tap for congress before we head to the christmas break? >> reporter: so, the senate will still have to pass the government funding bills so that vote will have to happen sometime soon. we're expecting to hear from both mcconnell the majority leader in the senate and chuck schumer in just a little bit, perhaps. so that still is on deck for the senate of course, the house taking up usmca but that major piece of trade legislation will not hit

the senate until calendar year 2020, guys >> thanks. we'll talk to you in a little while. meantime we did get some record intraday highs as wall street looks to extend the win streak to six days joining us this morning, is our guests good morning what is left to be said regarding the markets and impeachment and how many corollaries to '98 are valid today? >> i don't think any the market isn't paying attention to impeachment it's looking at the economic data and powering ahead through the rest of the year >> sean, do you agree? >> i agree i think the market is definitely looking at where there are opportunities as far as putting risk capital on. it's a risk on environment that will continue for the next quarter or two >> risk on because of what improving fundamentals do we believe the substance

behind the china deal? fed balance sheet or something else >> the delta of change as far as things getting better. clearly central banks pours liquidity into the system. excess liquidity has to go somewhere. in the old days it used to go into commodities and higher wages. right now it's going into financial assets >> so if the markets largely shrugging off the drama in d.c. right now what matters most, fed policy and easing is starting to finally move out into the market and affect assets or the fact that we have these potential tread deals whether with china, phase one, usmca or brexit moving forward affecting the markets? >> i think the trade deals are pretty marginal to the outlook for the market what's important number one, the fed has stayed on the sidelines as they have all year. that's the biggest positive.

they've been a destructive force in most years past looking ahead we're likely to see the economic data start to accelerate in 2020 i think that's what market realizes that would be a real shocker for people thinking we'll have much slower growth and maybe even a mild recession next year they aren't set up for that. that will take the market even higher next year >> what will behind that acceleration if you don't think the market is trading off of trade what's accelerating the economy next year >> well, i think the fed was too tight in 2018. they eased in '19 and it takes a year or so buff see effect of that globally we've seen a lot of easing this year 2020, the surprise might be we see a little pick up in global growth and our companies are maintaining those high profit margins. earnings will continue to power ahead for the vast majority of the economy. >> sean, we keep hearing from macro dust everything that she

just said is true but u.s. is not the bargain around the world that it was at the beginning of '19 and you're better of looking at em, eurozone and japan. >> that's accurate in a risk environment you have to move away from the u.s. and look for other sources of opportunity. emerging markets have trailed significantly over the last several years. they should do better. at the end of the day that excess liquidity, the tail winds the from the tax relief, those things will play themselves out by the second half of next year and then what is the growth characteristic on a global basis and i think we still have some problems there the world is being driven by an equity philosophy at this point in time. credit drives the world. if you have any hiccup or interruption to the massive amount of credit put in the marketplace, markets could have a tougher time >> i was going to ask you about credit because, i know it's a focus for you. what are we seeing out there in

general. are things priced a bit too rich right now >> we've seen the bottom end of the credit stack move backwards, so that's actually positive. significant widening there at the very low end you still have that middle tier kind of triple b space is incredibly tight on a historical basis. you still have issues. you're playing for the carry game at this point in time which means you hope to get your money back plus interest at lower quality instruments, i always fear that trade over time >> so, if you believe that growth will modestly accelerate next year, where would you be positioned going into 2020 >> well, i think you should be overwa overweighting equities the risk across the bond market is low, potential returns are small, maximum mid-single digits in equities we have a earnings yield of 5%.

dividend yelled of 1.8 that says to me it doesn't take much for equities to continue to accelerate over the fixed income we like equities much more >> sean, we talk about spreads, i noticed institutional investor bulls are near highs fund survey cash near loss when do we talk about sentiment getting the too high >> i think we're there the question is how long will it last until you have the excess liquidity work its way through the system you'll have tight spreads and people pouring in to the space. but we all know that there are significant amount of duration out there with these low interest environments. credit spreads are tight people are getting too complacent and not doing enough credit work. that comes back the to haunt you at some point but just not right now. >> let us know when that moment comes. we could use the tip >> i will try.

>> thanks, guys. thank you. meantime take a look at shares of fedex down sharply ever issuing a disappointing guidance stock is down 9% pulling the dow transports lower. down about 1.1%. company citing factors including higher costs from expanding to seven day around the clock delivery and the loss of amazon volume and of course ongoing headwinds from all of the trade dynamics happening around the world right now. guys, it's particularly notable given the fact that fedex, this is the fifth straight quarter for fedex since last december that they have cut their forecast >> we see nancy pelosi walking in right? >> yeah. >> on capitol hill >> continue to keep our eye on that right now she's expected to speak on the house floor shortly. we'll bring you those headlines as we get them

meantime, though, shifting gears again and going back to fedex, as i mentioned this is the fifth straight quarter that the company has cut its forecast amazon continues to be a drag after the company basically began severing ties and not renewing contracts there as well basically i think three key factors are pressuring the company right now. head winds from macro and trade issues remember they have a big footprint in china and asia-pacific also with the tnt acquisition they have a lot of exposure in europe which has been affected, some collateral damage and it continues to invest, this company continues to invest, continues to focus on its ecommerce footprint those ground deliveries not as lucrative as the express deliveries which, of course, we've seen so much of profit and revenue miss as less businesses, fewer businesses shift around the world, given

the trade dynamics right now the billions of dollars, the higher than expected costs in e! commerce, a company that's very much going through a major shift a major the transition and been a very painful one fred smith on the call basically signals that they see a bottom coming >> that's what i was going to ask you about that you note the five consecutive quarters at this point investors if they hadn't already given up they may very well today. he did say bottom. can we believe him >> that's the key question going into fiscal 2021 this was fiscal 2020 q2 for them so you have a few quarters here. meantime take a look at shares of fedex, they are down 20% over the past 12 months what used to be the dynamic of that fedex was an outperformer and u.p.s. it's chief rival was a laggard. you've seen a reversal because u.p.s. has continued the to show

strength and profit in its profit and revenue and continued to take some of that market share with amazon as well versus fedex which is obviously going through some of these companies speef themes and macro >> all right we'll keep a close eye on shares of fedex again down over 9% still to come an exclusive with fed president john williams talk to him about just about everything as we count down the year as well on trading. plus we'll be covering very closely the big impeachment vote what today's events in washington mean for your money big show coming up the stock market doesn't like uncertainty, i would expect, i would say is a change in the leadership in our country going to affect my retirement funds?

welcome back to "squawk on the street". let's get over to steve liesman. he has a special guest steve? >> thanks very much. i'm live inside the new york federal reserve with new york fed president john williams. >> welcome back to the new york fed. >> good to be here end of december, end of 2019. what kind of growth do you expect for 2020 and inflation. >> the economy has performed well i expect to see growth at 2.25%. unemployment at 3.5% inflation has been a little softer than we would like to see. looking at next year i expect to see more of the same growth around 2% for the year.

unemployment staying around where it is now about 3.5% unemployment rates, steady job gains and hoping to see inflation move back close to our 2% longer run objective is here. i feel very good about where the economy has been this year, how it has progressed and feels good how it will look next year very close to our maximum and price stability goals we feel on >> you say the unemployment rate you hope it sticks to 3.5 you hope it doesn't go lower >> no, i would say 3.5 is a very good place we haven't seen inflationary pressures emerge even with very low unemployment if the unemployment rate moved down somewhat i think that would be very good in terms of a strong labor market, probably help move inflation back up. i don't want to see unemployment move up a significant amount but right now we have strong labor market, solid job gains. the usmca will keep the economy

strong >> using various terms to describe where the fed is right now. i've heard the idea of a firm hold with a high bar. to cut and a high bar to hike can you explain how you think about where the fed is right now and what it would take for the fed to move again? >> i'll use a word you might be surprised to hear me say and that was data dependency >> john williams several years ago had a t-shirt that said monetary policy. >> it's true in 2019 as we saw the economic landscape shift some of the risks around the economy shift. we obviously adjusted monetary policy this year, i think very effectively to manage some of those risks and keep the economy strong when i look to the year ahead i think monetary policy is in a good place we're well positioned to support growth, support inflation back to our 2% goal as we've proven in the past if

economic conditions shift, change in a material way or the outlook change in a material way obviously we're ready to adjust our policy views woaccordingly. >> how is it data dependent? one where you have to see a significant shoot to the upside on inflation in order to raise rates? and maybe less of a shoot to the down side to lower them? >> i don't see it that way it's pretty balanced in terms of where monetary policy is i think with rate cuts that we did this year i think we created a situation wheremonetary policy is accommodative, supporting growth and that's a good position for given what's going on in the economy. in terms of what would change, i think it would begin to be material change in the economic outlook. i can't point to one or two things in particular i would point to this idea that maximum employment, price stability is really important. we want to see the labor market

remain strong. i want to see the inflation rate moving back to our 2% goal on a sustained basis. those are things i'm focused on. >> back in november you thought the risks were tilted to the down side. you had someimprovement in som risks you had. for example, trade deals, looks like there will be a tratd deal. usmca looks like it's on the road brexit has a handle on it. are the risks diminished now >> there's still some significant risks to the down side i hear from business people around the district about concerns about uncertainty uncertainty about trade. uncertainty about global events. even though we've seen, like brexit, a reduction in uncertainty what happens there, there's still the implementation of brexit. obviously geopolitical risks around the globe even though we've seen positive developments in terms of trade and positives from what i hear

from businesses still quite a bit of uncertainty around geopolitical in trade issues so my view is that some of this uncertainty will likely be with us for the time being. again, my outlook is very positive i expect growth to be around 2% and unemployment to stay low >> ask you two policy questions. first, is it a policy of the federal reserve right now to allow inflation to overshoot for some period of time? >> what i view the policy of that is to make sure we have 2% symmetrical. we want to be around 2%. that means sometimes above, sometimes low but on a consistent basis be at our 2% objective depending on economic circumstances. inflation might be soft relative to that, another circumstance it might be higher. really see this notion that we're on average 2% of

inflation, sometimes a little above, sometimes a little below. that's what i think the word symmetric means. >> the recent rate cuts that you described by the chairman as insurance cuts back in 1998 when you took out insurance cuts you took those cuts back. are these the kind of cuts you need to take back? >> i think that there are both kind of the risk uncertainties we talked about. but global economic developments in the current circumstance global growth has slowed some of those risks have turned into reality we've seen downgrades to global growth from the imf and others and i if i those are things that have shifted, the landscape that we're operating under. i don't see those reversing any time soon. as i said although we've seen some positive developments in terms of uncertainties i think there's quite a few uncertainties out there. i don't have any prediction about reversing or any other policy actions again where we got monetary policy is in the right place, supportive of growth, supportive

of achieving our goals >> the overnight lending market, the repo market. do you feel confident that after several moves by the federal reserve to make liquidity to the banking system, is there enough liquidity to avoid some kind of crisis or rise of risk over the turn of the year >> obviously, for the last several months the fmoc and federal reserve bank of new york have made i think really important decisions to provide, to make sure there are ample reserves in the system we've taken actions in terms of building up our reserve levels through the purchases of t bills and doing overnight repo operations that add reserves to the banking system those have been highly effective. interest rates like the fund rate stay right in the range that the fomc set. money markets operate very smoothly at the end of the year, typically at the end of the year there are pressures that move

certain repo rates and interest it's around for various reasons. i'm guessing that will happen this year as well. but from our position, we are, i thinks in a very good position in terms of providing liquidity, providing reserves to the system and importantly keeping the federal funds rate in the range throughout the year and making sure markets are operating smoothly >> i have to ask you this discussion there's a lot of discussion what happened in september when there was a blow-out in the repo rate. one idea that's come up, the vice chairman of the fed has talked about this idea regulations and supervision that may have caused banks to hold back where do you stand on that do you need to relax the rules to let banks reserve a certain amount and not make as much liquidity available to the repo system >> here at the new york fed one of the key responsibilities we have is carrying out monetary policy for the fmoc.

we're doing that what we in the direct response to what we saw in mid-september in terms of the turmoil in the repo markets was to take very quickly analyze what's happening, provide liquidity, provide the reserves in the system and obviously develop a longer term plan to create ample reserves we need what we've seen since then for the last few months is that interest rates are, you know, behaving themselves exactly as we would like to he see. we're seeing market functioning return to what we saw before mid-september. my view markets are functioning well with the ample reserves a lot of advance that happened in mid-september markets are operating very well. there are longer term issues that clearly will be under study to make sure we understand all aspects of these markets and think through some of those issues right now i'm focused on making sure we're carrying out the monetary policy direction for the fmoc and that's working very well >> john williams, thanks for

joining us >> happy holidays. >> carl, back to you thanks to you for bringing to it us as we go to break take a look at he some of the top performing names on s&p we got to 3198 almost 3,200 before settling back another high today dish may be the leaders. more "squawk on the street" back in a moment. come.

we're about to begin. yeah!

i'm a magic cat. i love it. and now for the icing on the cake. [ hiss ] welcome back time for our etf spotlight xlp is down now fractionally general mills among the leaders. that stock is trading higher up about 1.5%. after the company's earnings beat food producer getting a boost from strong pet food sales stocks now up 35% for the year so far story we visited a few weeks back, bernie ebbers secretarying

early rerace is from prison. he was convicted for one of the largest accounting corporate frauds only 13 years into a 25 year sentence the 78-year-old is in declining health back in october his daughter said in a sworn statement that she fears her father quote only has weeks to live but the government opposes the request from early release citing medical records suggest that his condition is not quite as dire as has been said let's get to sue herera and get a news update. >> good morning. here's what's happening at this hour democrats driving donald trump to the brink of impeachment as the house takes up charges that the president abused his power and obstructed congress in pressuring ukraine to investigate political rivals impeach trump rallies were held across the country on tuesday. six people were killed when a double-decker bus crashed in hong kong.

dozens of others were injured. the impact of the crash tore away much of the side of the bus and ripped aaged hole in its roof chinese president xi jinping arriving in macaw for the 20th anniversary of macaw returned to china. and a british woman making history in the sport of darts. she became the first female to beat a male competitor she made six 180s which is a perfect score over three darts you are up to date that's the news update at this hour morgan, back downtown to you >> that's so cool. i didn't even know there was professional dart playing. who knew >> it is really big in the uk. really big i don't know the game myself but it's huge over there >> all right we'll have to try it sometime. thank you. when we come back from washington to wall street, how investors should be looking to

protect their portfolios ahead of today's big impeachment vote. we'll discuss next when "squawk on the street" returns it goes up and goes down and if there's one thing my wife has always told me, just stay iint long term. don't do anything. and it always comes back steyer: i'm about to say two words that will make washington insiders very uncomfortable: term limits. you and i both know we need term limits,

that congress shouldn't be a lifetime appointment. but members of congress, and the corporations who've bought our democracy hate term limits. too bad. i'm tom steyer and i approve this message because the only way we get universal healthcare, address climate change and make our economy more fair is to change business as usual in washington.

house of representatives getting ready to vote on whether to impeach the president if it goes through it marks only the third time in history that a president was impeached. how is president trump preparing to survive the aftermath eamon javers has more. >> reporter: aides here tell me president trump is not going be changed by this impeachment we're expecting to see later on today. he'll be the same president. what we see in 2020 is more of the same take a look at some policy issues they say the president

will focus on as he moves beyond impeachment assuming he's quitted in the senate. can't say that for certain but that seems to be where the expectation is they feel they have a chance in a very divided washington to get something done on prescription drugs. they say the president will continue to focus on the trade war as you watch the house floor proceedings here going on now. there's not a lot of legislation that will get done on that house floor in the next year it's an election year. post-impeachment aides here say they are simply going to hit a lot of the issues as hard as they can and gin up some enthusiasm among the base they need those voters in 2016 to show up again in 2020 one interesting point to watch, there's not a really robust counter programming effort going on here at the white house you don't see a whole lot of senior administration officials coming out to defend the president. the president himself, we're not going to see him in any kind of presidential setting here today other than we expect to see him

leaving this afternoon, the white house to get on marine one and head to a rally in michigan this evening and that is where we think we can expect to see the president's response tonight in front of a crowd of supporters in michigan this evening and we could have a very fascinating split screen as the house of representatives could be still voting on the impeachment even as the president takes to that stage in michigan this evening. a lot to watch for the rest of the day today. relatively quiet and a muted response so far from the white house this morning, guys >> other than the letter, right? >> reporter: right the letter yesterday was the president venting his frustration and accusing nancy pelosi of believing that democracy is her enemy it was the strongest stuff you can imagine a president sending to a speaker of the house. that was yesterday maybe the president feels he said his peace we're not expecting to see him until much later this afternoon. there's a lot of unschedule time

on his public schedule today he said he he won't be watching the proceedings on television, but if he wanted to, there are a lot of tvs in the white house and he can take itall in >> yes, he could thank you. eamon javers out there, of course in front of the white house. let's do a bit of a deeper dive into this impeachment process what it means for the policy and economy if anything. john harwood is here to discuss and republican strategist. alex, i'll start with you. obviously, historic moment we have to cover it. do you think it will have a lasting impact on some way on either economy or the markets? clearly with the idea that he will be -- not be convicted by the senate >> certainly doesn't seem like it so far. the market if anything is up over the course of this impeachment inquiry. now the vote in the house today. also ironic because i think the impeachment debate in congress has actually created run for lawmakers to have most

productive couple of weeks they've had in years just this week alone, this budget bill they are passing, tax extensions that they are passing, they might not have been able to do that if the impeachment wasn't going on because the public is very focused, the liberal base and conservative base is wrapped up in impeachment and that's created the space for bipartisan policy making behind-the-scenes here which the market is responding to favorably. at least so far. >> which i think is a key point. it begs the he question given the fact you've had some major legislation finally begin to move through in recent days and recent weeks how does this set us up for 2020 and the election in terms of not only impeachment but what the optics are to the voting public with these policies finally moving forward versus the president being brought up potentially voted against in terms of impeachment

tonight? >> issues like the budget, the tax extenders, budget, the u.s.-mexico-canada trade deal would have happened anyway despite impeachment. the fighting over impeachment does create some appetite for lawmakers to get something done. i think eamon javers raised an interesting issue with prescription drugs i think that's a potential area of action, although i think the gap between what democrats want to do and what the president and republicans in congress want to do is fairly large but i think this is creating a situation in 2020 where the president will have been wound by this process. we saw from the letter they sent yesterday got him in a state of agitation. you know he'll be watching this on television and we'll be watching his twitter feed. the question is does the, does his own behavior and the excitement of democrats to get

him out of office, does that exceed the extent to which the president's own base is energized by this. the polls have been ambiguous. we've seen republicans rally around the president and that's ticked his poll numbers up a little bit impeachment, public support having risen substantially since september has kind of plateaued. we don't really know how voters once we get to the senate, if we get to the senate are going to process this the hope of democrats, of course, is that voters will tune in, will see this as an issue of gravity. some people haven't been paying close attention up to now. that will have some effect on the president. >> i'm thinking of the period before the mid-terms where very casually the president did raise the notion of further tax cuts in that case it was for the middle class on income i wonder if you think given all we're watching today the that is

remotely possible even just to be tabled, given just the histrionics around impeachment >> one thing the president hasn't done what contrump term would look like. once we get through impeachment he's going to have a real onus, want to make that a real priority to lay out what he wants to do and then contrast that to whatever the democratic nominee would do if elected president. to john's point, my firm we've done a bunch of polling in battleground states. we had trump losing all year until this latest survey earlier this month where all of a sudden he's winning in wisconsin, michigan, pence. the president liked it he talked about it a lot be interesting to see if he can maintain that support once this process moves to the senate. i actually think the senate will be more unpredictable than the conventional wisdom in d.c. is right now. it's possible that there will be

some witnesses that end up testifying, maybe if a couple of moderate republican senators want to hear from say a john bolton and if that's the case, you know, who knows what will happen it's very unlikely the president is removed from office but look it's politics. it's unpredictable i agree with john, if there are, you know, witnesses testifying in the senate, there will be a lot of americans tuning in and we could see some movement in the poll numbers as of now the american people seem to have made up their minds but as with all things trump the future is very uncertain >> john, to dig into that, you just need a simple majority in the house to impeach a president. in the senate you need two-thirds majority. markets seem to think it's a foregone conclusion this is basically dead on arrival in the senate any reason to think that may not be the case in terms of potential republican defectors who are the names to watch >> politics is unpredictable

if you get witnesses, it is possible that you see some people i would watch for people like lamar alexander who is a retiring senator from tennessee who himself was forged in the nixon white house and then he went through a period of -- he emerged as the clean government champion in tennessee after the democratic governor left in scandal. he's a person to watch obviously, the marginal senators, ones who are vulnerable, collins, mcsally, corey gardner are people to watch. other retiring senate, people who are stepping out, those are people to watch. i think it's highly unlikely that you get 20 republican senators voting against him. i think one of the interesting wild cards here is the discussion right now among democrats if they can't get the rules for mitch mcconnell that they want for the trial, for the production of witnesses, they

may withhold the articles of impeachment, not send them to the senate, which would deny the president the opportunity to be acquitted by the senate. and they believe that having the impeachment but not acquittal hanging over him would frustrate him, hurt him, drive him nuts. >> finally it's been the future of this presidency there's been so much coming at the public in general, i can barely remember what happened two weeks ago let alone 11 months ago. just think syria, the poll out there, the turks moving on the kurds. 11 months from now when we have an election is anybody going to be thinking about this >> probably not. i take your point 11 smos an eternity in politics especially in trump's washington. look i think a lot will happen next year. a lot will depend who the democrats nominate if they nominate somebody who is generally acceptable to swing

voters, to independent voters, it's going to be a very close election if they nominate like somebody like a elizabeth warren who does not have a lot of appeal for moderate voters, republicans are going really fired up about voting against, i think at least as of now trump is the favorite. but there's so much uncertainty going into the next 11 months. that said i do think that the congress, while they are impeaching him have taken on some of the uncertain "today" off the table, approving usmca was a big question mark going into next year then as we discussed earlier doing the budget and tax extenders for the entire next year not a government shutdown next summer not a big tax increase because taxes, some of the tax cuts expire next summer or this winter so some of the uncertainty has been taken off the plate look it's donald trump who knows what he's going to say tonight let alone over the next 11 months that could shake

things up. >> all right guys, thanks to you both >> thank you stay in washington trade does remain in the forefront with the house set to vote this week on usmca. how will today's events affect late heest intraday. >> this time of year washington is normally racing the clock to keep the government open and to avoid these bitter funding and policy battles this year is marked by uncharacteristic efficiency congress passing $1.4 trillion in spending bills. tomorrow the democratic house will pass president trump's signature trade deal and just last week the house passed speaker pelosi's bill to lower drug prices. this year end legislative frenzy is brought to you by impeachment. unpopular notion for roughly three dozen front-runners,

democrats who won red districts in 2018 and have to estrada tell political aisle and show voters split on impeachment that they accomplished other things during the session. nearly all of those members will vote in favor of impeaching the president today which is one reason why impeachment and usmca have been so closely linked featured in nearly tandem announcements. speaker pelosi said she wouldn't whip the votes by lobbying these members but wants to give them cover that there's no impeachment logjam they can go back to their districts and tout these achievements we should get some new polling out later today. >> certainly one way of which they are trying to diffuse the notion of do nothing democrats as the president would say thuch. as we go break take a look at markets in a holding pattern as we keep our eye on washington.

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has microsoft run too far too fast one chart signal too fast one chart suggests the dow darling could be peaking find out more on tradingnation.cnbc.com no, it's not in my records. you've got a lot on your plate. deliveries. billy, come in. shift times. i just need to know if it's there. compliance. can i get your 20? for 100 drivers. doug... doug? and where is doug? he should be sleeping. so should you.

just because you're married to my sister, you could lose this job, billy! this isn't working. introducing samsung connected fleet solutions. with the galaxy tab active2, you can track driver shifts and timesheets and meet eld compliance, all from one device. samsung business solutions. welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli live in chicago, the futures capital of the world. you know, as we come into year end, there's a lot of good buys. maybe one of those good buys may be tomorrow with the swedish central bank swedish is at minus 25 basis points and look to raise a quarter to zero. after going through the twilight zone of negative rates for about five years, they finally are succumbing to the notion it didn't raise inflation and didn't accomplish anything positive everything lingering is recalibrated into handicapping their economy. we want to pay attention to

that let's look at in year-to-date charts let's look at our 10 we're down close to 80 basis points on the year bunds are down 50 basis points look at high yield from barclay's. we ended last year at 560 over treasuries were below 3.50 investment grade we ended 1.60, we're under 100. it has been a very good b-u-y in fixed income space no matter where you put your money, whether it was in corporates, whether it was in sovereigns rates go down, price go up but it seems that the game may be about to end. and i weigh in very little on the political climate, but another policy that may be saying good-bye is just the notion of uncertainties, whether it's trade or in this case impeachment. listen, i have a good memory, and i remember first inauguration, dozens of democrats missed it because they wanted impeachment

this is something the american people knew was coming and in 11 months, i guarantee you, they're not going to forget about it david faber, back to you >> all right, rick, thank you. let's send it over to jon fortt and get a look at what's coming up. >> hedge fund manager dan niles told us earlier this year that it was the most challenging trading environment he had ever seen we'll see how he'sosio pitned heading into next year coming up on "squawk alley." fights cancer, repairs shattered bones, relieves depression, restores heart rhythms, helps you back from strokes, and keeps you healthy your whole life. from the day you're born we never stop taking care of you.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." stocks are hovering just above the flat line trying to add to five straight days of gains. tech and communication services are outperforming, both hitting fresh all-time highs in early trading. but other cyclical groups like industrials and materials are capping gains for the broader market industrials one of only two sectors still trading in negative territory for the month. fedex the big name weighing on the group but defense names like lockheed and north rorop grumm n

grummanologist -- also weighing on the market. >>

. good morning it's 11:00 a.m. on the floor of the house of representatives, it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street, and "squawk alley" is live ♪ good wednesday morning welcome to squawk alley. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt. obviously an historic day today at least in politics as the house of representatives kicks off a day of debate expected to end tonight with the impeachment of the president of the united