returning 4% to shareholders. >> anastasia. >> bio tech stocks in the j.p. morgan health conference in january. >> okay. >> i added to baba chinese economy's doing better. >> thanks for watching "the exchange" starts now. >> thanks, scott welcome, everybody "the exchange. the world, it is watching dc as the house gets set to vote for trump's impeachment. the senate unlikely to follow suit but what will this divide mean for 2020 and this policy push which includes drug pricing, trade wars, and the potential for tax cuts 2.0 with gains of more than 50% for all the major averages since the election and record-low unemployment, will any of this matter to investors long-term? and is there a demographic threat to america's job boom or will 80 million millennials

prove it all wrong we'll debate, as well. all that and much more ahead here live on "the exchange." but we begin with a look at your money. seema. >> brian, we are quickly losing steam here three hours left in the trading day and here is where we stand the dow, as you can see, well off the highs of the session just up about 6 points s&p higher by 2. and the nasdaq, the outperformer, up about 20 points we would be even higher, though, if it wasn't for the underperformance in shares of fedex. watching that impeachment vote very closely but again, at this point, we are in the green take a look at energy. that is a key part of why we are in the green today this sector is now very close to exiting correction territories and is now just about 11% away from hitting its own high. then take a look at some of the consumer-driven stocks in fact, in the travel sector, we're looking at shares of marriott and hilton at record-highs and here is a five-year chart just to show you the strong year they've had over the last five years. up nearly 95% for both of those

stocks brian, back to you. >> all right seema, thank you very much now, let's go to washington. where the house of representatives is deep in debate right now that debate expected in with enough votes to impeach the president. let's get now the very latest and the timeline with elon who is live in washington and what could be, elon, certainly a long night. >> that's right, brian the debate on the two articles of impeachment against president trump began less than an hour ago. house speaker nancy pelosi addressed the chamber when it began. and she started with the pledge of allegiance. and told the members that this is about a promise to defend democracy. >> we, in congress, article one, the legislative branch, must stand up and make clear to the american people and to all people that this body still stands by the principles enshrined in the constitution. and defend it by generations of americans. >> she received applause from democratic lawmakers when she finished her speech. pelosi has tightly-controlled

both the optics and messaging of the impeachment investigation from the very beginning. and her caucus has almost all fallen in line however, republicans, they are ready for a fight. after his angry letter yesterday to pelosi, president trump tweeted today that she will go down as the worst speaker in history. and from the house floor, republicans plan to mount an aggressive defense just listen into this open speech from doug collins of georgia. the ranking member of the judiciary committee, who said that the timeline for impeachment has been controlled by the calendar and the clock. >> today is going to be a lot of things what it is not is fair what it is not is about the truth. >> so lawmakers will now spend the next six hours debating these articles of impeachment. three hours on the abuse of power. and three hours on obstruction of justice brian, we have still got a very long way to go before we get to the final vote back over to you. >> yeah. we certainly do, elon. and basically, because it has been a confusing process and

it's not so cut and dry. as we understand it and please correct me if i'm wrong, that we will get this vote it is likely the house will push it through and then what? the senate sets up a trial and there has been some argument about the rules of what they would call a trial and that will likely take place sometime in early or mid-january? >> that's right. it looks like the process over in the senate will begin around january 6th. right now, we expect the house to be able to present its case before the senate. and the white house to have its lawyers or designees also be able to defend itself in front of the senate. however, where the question comes in is whether the senate will call witnesses as part of this trial you heard minority democratic leader chuck schumer ask for at least four witnesses to be called including mick mulvaney, the president's acting chief of staff, and john bolton, the former national security advisor. mcconnell seemed to dismiss that request. and what we heard today from

republicans over in the house was, hey, welcome to the club. this is what it feels like to be in the minority. so we are going to see the political dynamics of this debate start to shift once it heads over to the upper chamber. >> thank you very much great explanation and we're going to see it all day and probably all night here on cnbc. thank you very much. so let's break down what today's impeachment vote may mean for the president and this american economy. welcome in larry, he is the director of the university of virginia center for politics and joe watkins, former white house aide for president george h.w. bush. first, i'm going to ask you the same question. joe, beginning with you. what is the ultimate outcome of this and the senate proceedings? >> i think the ultimate outcome is today the house votes to impeach the president. and when it gets to the senate, they' they'll vote to acquit i think it's -- it's fairly obvious that this will be done along party lines. and, if anything, if democrats meant to diminish the strength

of the president, i think the opposite is probably going to happen and clearly, when it comes to members of congress, republicans are holding with the president and have even managed on the house side to get a democrat, jeff van drew, to join their ranks. to leave the democrats and to join their ranks so i think at the end of the day, this is probably not going to hurt the president. and will probably strengthen him in his bid to run for re-election. >> strengthen him. wow. larry, would you agree with that >> no and here's why it's not that it won't temporarily maybe boost his ratings. it's that the election is almost a year away. in this presidency, there's a landslide of news and controversies. i don't think we've ever had a president like this. who created as many as trump does so are people even going to remember what happened the previous december and january? because there's so many other things that they're going to be thinking about i doubt it

i think other controversies will take the floor and it isn't as though there are a lot of people who are undecided out there. almost everybody has made up their minds about donald trump, one way or the other >> well, if they have, larry, and it goes the way of 2016, couldn't that be good for the president? listen, i'm not diminishing anybody's vote everybody should go out and vote but if you are a republican in new jersey, it really doesn't matter how you go. you're going to know the outcome. the reality of this election next year is that probably like 2016, it will not only come down to a couple of states, it'll probably come down to a couple of counties. maybe 19 to 20 countries strewn across wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, and maybe parts of ohio do those people care >> do they care? if they're democrats, they do. and if they're republicans, they don't. look, there are so many other factors involved this is not going to be the central one for the election

i understand what you're saying. it was close in 2016 it will probably be a close election this next year. though, you have to ask the question, if any other president had this economy, it wouldn't be close. it'd be close to 60% favorability and would win the election easily. but this will be close because it's donald trump. so, you know, i think it's way too early to speculate about how the states will fall in november of 2020. >> you know, joe, your former boss, george h.w. bush, i got a chance to know his son a little bit. george w. bush i know h.w. was a very well-liked guy widely-respected, government service. more importantly, just personally liked i think that's the opposite of this president but here's the point i'm trying to make. i have spent a lot of time in wisconsin. i know a lot of people there almost everybody i know who has admitted to voting for the president also admits to not liking him as a human being or a person does likability matter in this election

>> well, that's a great point, brian. not really not as much as it may have once mattered you -- you -- what the voters wanted in 2016 was somebody who was outside of the process somebody who would speak truth to power somebody who would be a disruptor. and not your standard candidate. and that's why bernie sanders was popular on the left. and donald trump was popular on the right. donald trump manages to take advantage of controversy and controversy becomes his friend lord knows there is no shortage of controversial comments that he's made over the years and certainly, as president of the united states. and yet, and still, it doesn't diminish the love that his base has for him or his capacity to even win some people in the middle over to his side. and, clearly, what's happening with the economy will -- will -- will not hurt him in the 2020 election i mean, the president's going to say you may not like me as a person you may not like all the stuff i said you may not like my style. but at the end of the day, i've

delivered on everything i promised look at the rate of unemployment under 4% look at the labor force participation rate look at the trade deals i'm renegotiate negotiating in our favor. i've stood for everything i said i was going to get done. that's what he's going to say. >> i spent, joe, election night 2016 in columbus, ohio and there were three parties there was the democratic party the republican party and these are parties. i mean actually get togethers. and the trump party. there were actually three separate ones. i met a lot of people that night who said i'm a lifelong democrat but i just couldn't vote for hilary clinton because i'm a centrist democrat. i'm a labor-union democrat i like to watch the bengals or the browns or the steelers i'm not that progressive have those people permanently switched from the democratic party that we hear about in the northeast, all the progressive issues to a more centrist, and arguably, maybe gop-type voter >> there is a growing middle i

think. and those voters are trying to make sense of what to do in the upcoming race. a lot will depend on who the democratic nominee is. but if the democratic nominee is somebody who tacks left, somebody who is promoting programs that are going to call for a higher taxes and greater regulation and maybe a return to those kinds of policies, that person's going to lose the middle and president trump is going to be able, again, to tout the fact the economy is moving in the right direction. and he's going to take credit for a lot of that. and he's going to -- he's going to be rewarded by lots of voters who may not personally like him but he will want to keep it going in the direction it's headed. >> the election will probably be decided in the middle literally and figuratively of the democratic candidates who are out there, who has the best chance to beat trump >> well, it's not some of the front-runners. look it's all about the contrast. biden is seen as more of a centrist and i agree with what you said on -- on hilary clinton and how she came across in many

of the midwestern states but he's not -- biden isn't the only one i don't think it's going to be sanders. and i don't think it's going to be liz warren. and i doubt buttigieg, in the end, will be able to get the nomination so, you know, klobuchar. amy klobuchar. senator from minnesota she might fit the bill but -- but look. the key point is this. when a president runs for re-election, people basically ask the question, the brilliant, that ronald reagan asked in the one debate he had with jimmy carter in october of 1980. are you better off than you were four years ago and better off can mean the economy, primarily, or it can also mean other things do you feel better about yourself your family? and your country and all of those things go into the mix. the simple act of voting is pretty complicated, at least for most people. >> it is larry and joe, listen, guys. >> i anywknow we're going to taa lot. i look forward to going to some

of those counties and towns. it's a novel concept actually get to know the people in those places. guys, thank you very much. happy holidays happy new year. >> we are just getting started here on "the exchange. don't go anywhere. here's what else is coming up. coming up. another day, another record for the markets. if impeachment can't derail wall street's bullishness, will anything do it we'll debate plus, a big fedex fumble but it doesn't seem to be a macro problem. so is it time to say good-bye to ceo fred smith and the unusual role trade plays in impeachment this is "the exchange" on cnbc ess. from using feedback to innovate... to introducing products faster...

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and welcome back to "the exchange," everybody while the impeachment proceedings are underway, keep in mind the president's still fighting for re-election next year and running on the fact, largely, that the stock market is booming under his watch and he's got a good case since president trump was elected back in november 2016, the dow, up 54%. s&p 500, 49% and the nasdaq, outstripping them all, up a whopping 70%. but with political heat turning up in d.c., will it scuttle? josh brown, wealth management ceo and cnbc contributor

and kevin and walsh president and chief investor kevin and josh, thank you very much josh, they always say and you always say don't let emotions get in the way of making good investment decisions is today the perfect example or not just today but recently, don't let your political views get in the way of your investing? >> you know, that's one of the toughest things that we preach to clients every day at our wealth management firm and they get it. but they have to be reminded of it all the time. because the headlines are sometimes very scary and people conflate what's happening in washington with some calamity that may happen in the economy or the market. and actually, the history is much more complex. the week jfk was assassinated, the dow jones actually went up the you look at the last impeachment in modern history. bill clinton we had an 18-month rampage in the stock market right after those proceedings. so it's really, really important that people keep the two things

separately and it's not to say, brian, that politics won't affect the market it's that it's an indirect relationship, most of the time and when it's direct, the outcome is very rarely an intuitive outcome that you could have protected beforehand. >> yeah. kevin, how are you keeping your, you know, clients from going over the political edge? and keeping them focused on these markets? >> very similar to josh. we go back to the underlying data unemployment, 3.5% participation rate, 63%. you have inflation about 1.8%. and wages rising 3.1%. where does that all lead to? a strong and confident consumer that continues to spend. we saw it on black friday. we saw it on cybermonday we're going to see it through the balance of this year and i think it's the consumer that's going to drive the economy at least for the first two quarter of next year. >> josh, ahead of the 2016 election, i don't need to remind you we had pretty much a 12 to 15-month period where the markets did basically nothing. it was almost like everybody was on hold, sort of waiting

of course, we had last december's crash do you expect a period of six or nine months of sort of just eyeballs glued to the television you know, the internet or twitter. and not paying enough attention to the economy and the markets >> you know, that's such a great point. and i think what gets lost in the shuffle sometimes is people will see a binary event like an election take place. and then they'll look at how the market reacts. and they will, because we're -- you know, we're trained by our dna over a million years to do this they'll draw a linear kind of map in their mind of this happened and the stocks went up so the market liked it. but to your point, brian, often times, it's not even the thing that happened that generated a market rally or selloff. it's the resolution of an event. andi think the 2016 election i a great case in point. we were told the consensus amongst wall street strategists was that trump is bad for the stock market because he's out of control or whatever the case may be and so of course the stock market rallied furiously after

the election is that because they love trump? or is that because the stupid election that we had been fighting about in the headlines for a year was finally in the rearview mirror? brexit is the same story that happened two months earlier in 2016 did we love the outcome of the brexit vote? no but made a new all-time high shortly afterward. i don't think there is a linear relationship between the outcome and what we see in the market. i just think sometimes investors want something to be overwith. >> it might be, kevin. it's a good point. don't get political. but here's the reality the house is probably going to vote to impeach. the senate, by all measures, is going to acquit. and it will just end two years or so of agitating and political conversation might be over will that be, maybe, the spark that could set off another rally? where maybe we just, both sides, finally try to get down to business maybe we get another tax bill. or maybe we get infrastructure or maybe we get drug pricing

reform >> yeah. i think we get the latter. drug pricing reform. we heard some talking points from the white house today that's one of the areas that trump is going to look to focus on next year perhaps he gets the democrats to go along with that that creates an investment opportunity for investors, specifically in bio tech we even saw the ceo of pfizer a couple weeks ago suggest that he's going to look to become. >> yeah. you wonder are we going to get some kind of big spending bill, josh, that could prop stocks up? >> well, it is -- it is possible i wouldn't invest on that basis. but as we've seen, speaker pelosi is able to walk and chew gum at the same time you saw the vote for nafta 2.0, aka usmca. you could, very likely, see something on infrastructure once this is behind us. and you could certainly see something on drug pricing because those are popular with both sides and independents. so don't fall out of your chair

if there are some -- some deals being made in the wake. >> all right good stuff there, josh and kevin, good discussion gentlemen, both, we appreciate it see you soon on deck, tis the season for millions and billions of e-mails. but do all those offers from retailers that are flooding your inbox really do anything we're going to dive into the scourge of your cyberlife. plus, there is one area of the housing market that could blow past expectations next year. what is it we'll tell you coming up >> deeper data at cnbc gasoline consumption in the u.s. jumped 1.8% in the week ending december 13th. that's the biggest year-over-year rise since october. woman: my reputation was trashed online.

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all right. welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. there is certainly a lot of news today. but do not forget there are also many individual stock stories that are moving right now. so let's tell you about a few of them shall we names that we plucked out just for you. all right. shares of a number of retailers moving higher today as we count down the final days the holiday shopping season. the sector being led by macy's that's right macy's footlocker nordstrom. l brands and by the way, macy's up 10% this week. it had been the worst-performing stock in the s&p 500 this year no more. facebook also getting a bump deutsche bank raising its price target on the stock by ten bucks to 270

that's about 33% upside. db says facebook has managed several large transitions, which have improved engagement trends. people are betting on the betters, as well today shares of wynn resorts, they're also moving higher after named the three stocks as their top picks for 2020 firm says that all three should have upside of more than 20% next year. and here's a bonus name for you because that's just what we do here take a look at shares of tesla hitting a new intraday all-time high stock is up nearly 2,000% since going public in 2010 elon musk, one tesla haters, zero now, let's get a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, brian. hello, everyone. here's what's happening at this hour house speaker nancy pelosi opening debate on the articles of impeachment against president trump. leading the way to votes on the two articles later today >> today, as speaker of the house, i solemnly and, sadly,

open the debate on the impeachment of the president of the united states. if we do not act now, we would be derelict in our duty. it is tragic that the president's reckless actions make impeachment necessary in sports news, the new york yankees introducing their new pitcher. garrett cole to fans and the media today. cole signed a nine-year, $324 million deal that's a record for starting pitchers and he talked about his excitement in joining the yankees. >> it's the best organization, in my opinion, in the league there's a -- there's a process here that brian spoke to and that he just alluded to a couple minutes ago. about trying to bring the best people at each individual position to surround everybody with the best opportunity to succeed. >> and he looks pretty good in pin stripes. you are up to date brian, back to you. >> lot of hopes are elevated. >> absolutely. >> and probably the ticket prices, too, sue.

>> sure. >> thank you very much all right. so much to do. here's what else is ahead on "the exchange. coming up. man's best friend is now general mills' best friend fedex's real problem doesn't seem to be the economy the stunning stats about netflix's original programming and the demographic threat to america's bsjo boom. it's all ahead on "the exchange." , , it feels like i'm just wasting time. wasted time is wasted opportunity. >>exactly. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. see, you just >>oh, this is easy. yeah, and that's >>oh, just what i need. courses on options trading, webcasts, tutorials. yeah. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. >>so it's like my streaming service. well exactly. well except now, you're binge learning. >>oh, i like that.

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all right. welcome back impeachment proceedings are underway on capitol hill let's show you a live shot of the house of representatives where for the next couple of hours, they will be in debate. and they are expected to end with a vote to impeach the president of the united states that vote, likely, until not later on tonight maybe well into the evening. but we're going to keep bring you updates throughout the day and throughout the show. netflix, dog food, and inbox overload the key topics in today's rapid fire here with their takes are seema mody, bill griffith, and courtney reagan. all right. first up, fedex failing to deliver in its latest earnings report shares are down nearly 10% again. company missing profit

expectations they lowered their guidance for 2020 stocks down more than 10%. in the meantime, ups has done pretty great stocks up about 25% this year. so, bill griffeth, you've been covering this company a long time is this a macro economic issue or is this a fedex/fred smith issue? >> i did a little research this morning. look not only comparing fedex price performance for the last two years, i looked at ups, i looked at few shipping etfs, as well. fedex is the only one that goes south. everybody else either -- >> everyone else is up only fedex is down. >> especially, those shipping etfs they are booming right now and have been for the last couple years. so i don't think this is a macro issue. i think fedex is suffering -- and they even admitted yesterday that they've got higher expenses than anticipated but i think there's other things going on as well. >> they did also point to weakening global conditions. exactly. but like you said, it seems to be an independent performance operations. >> those would include these

global shippers and they're not suffering right now. >> well, fedex did buy tnt, which is more of a global -- kind of a mini-dhl and you wonder if that's not been a working out deal for them. >> they made that acquisition back in 2016 for $4.4 billion. a company based in netherlands this is supposed to be the way fedex gains a bigger footprint in europe. but the integration process of tnt has taken much longer than expected and i think that's one of the big headwinds fedex has face oefe faced overseas so it has to double down on investments. in fact, over the last five years, it's increased -- it's increased its number of facilities by at least 100 or so. >> by a lot of money. >> by a lot. >> a lot of money. >> with that, comes weaker sales, higher cost. >> well, coincidence or not, the fedex stock started to go south a few years ago around the time that they bought tnt so i don't know whether

that's -- >> tnt has been not dynamite. >> it was not dynamite for them. >> next up, apparently the way to an investor's heart is through their dog's stomach. general mills beating profit estimates boosted by 16% jump in the sales of its blue buffalo pet food brand stock up 36% this year on pace, seema mody, for its best year since 1991 they took a lot of heat. what did they pay? 7 or 8 billion why would you spend that kind of money on dog food? i think we're finding out. >> i think we are certainly finding out. all the research shows and more americans -- more americans are owning pets. and with that comes more expenditure on pet food and other pet things apparel. i don't have a pet yet but i hear that a lot of people love buying clothes and other things for their pets. >> plus, in the tribeca. i'm in the suburbs. >> i mean, it was one of the better-performing ipos although, as of late, it's

pulled back. but it was up 60% its first day and now has a market cap of 11 billion. >> i bought wuzzy his first blue buffalo food the other day. >> who >> my cat. >> your cat's name is wuzzy? >> wuzzy as in fuzzy wuzzy that was his name at the shelter and we really liked it so got his first blue buffalo. he really liked it i started thinking, you know, he is getting older serious. i feel like i should pay more attention to what's in his food because -- >> you rescued an old cat? >> no. i've had him for ten years yeah but since he's gotten older, i thought maybe i should really think about what i'm feeding him to make sure he lives a long time i put more thought into feeding him. >> do you have a dog or cat >> two dogs. they're rescue dogs. couple of mutts. and i was -- >> what do they eat? >> they eat -- well, one of them has to have a special diet. >> why does he have to have a special diet >> she has neurological problems

but thank you for asking. >> so yes. >> how many people have gone to the rescue shelters? that's been a huge trend for the last decade or so. and i think that that is also propelling the -- the -- the dog food industry and cat food industry. >> all vets will hate me but i -- i -- i do have a dog. which i love dogs. our dog just died. 18 years old about a year and a half ago no, we got a new dog he had a great life. i gave him egg in his dry dog food every day just a little egg. little gravy. >> wow. >> i just take an egg. i know you're not supposed to give the dog human food but, man, they love you so much when you do it. >> topic three the content wars moving away from wuzzy and bill's dog's urinary issues. new detail from variety shows that netflix released more original content this year than the entire television industry did back in 2005

streaming service boosted its output by 55% versus the last year tv industry saw a 4% drop for context, the tv industry is still putting three times more original programming out there than netflix and, listen. quantity doesn't mean quality, courtney some of the stuff is probably not good. >> that's true i think we've all probably done some searching when you don't know what else to watch and sometimes you run into some hits sometimes you run into some duds so i think that is true. i think the numbers are pretty astonishing. 371 for netflix. and then apple tv has like 12 originals. >> for now for now. >> of course and they just started. but still. netflix's numbers -- >> not very well-received originals by apple, by the way. >> they've gotten some award nominations already. >> i've said it yesterday. i'll say it again. reid hastings is the smartest guy in this business he's been there the longest. i think he has been preparing for this day for a long time he has been loading up on quality programming. luckily, for them, that has been a lot of quality programming

high-profile shows that people have -- have gone to netflix for. and, you know, as they pointed out in their earnings this week, you know, their growth right now is overseas as they face the competition here domestically. >> just too much i'm searching online like best streaming shows because there's so much content. i can't -- >> you know what you need now? >> right it's too much. >> how about a tv guide for streaming? what do you think? >> i like it >> there's your new business. >> netflix's best show i will argue is "bloodline. first episodes started out slow. you had to get to three. >> the crown >> "the crown. >> i'm with you, seema. >> no. "bloodline" the first season was one of the best shows ever. >> you got to get through the first two episodes. >> it's great for content creators. >> win this round of rapid fire. >> oh, well. >> next up, and this is a story that we can all get interested in holiday e-mail spam.

all of you out there listening, probably sitting in traffic for the gwb right now, by the way, you know your inbox is overrun with ads ads from companies you've used ads from companies you've never used ads from companies you've probably never heard of. but even if you never open a single one, the relentless bombardment of e-mails might actually pay off somehow >> you know what it actually really does. so this is a little hard to quantify when you are thinking about e-mail marketing because you have to look at the total spend for a campaign and what it takes to put it together as far as the time, the resources, the art, all of that however, while open rates for these retail e-mails are down, so we're opening fewer of them conversion rates are actually going up. >> once you open them, you do something. >> exactly you take action, whether it's browsing to the site or actually going through and making a purchase and there's a company called blue core and they have retail clients they did sort of an average to determine how valuable it is i want to get this right

they said that they actually sell 66 cents in revenue per e-mail on a return when the e-mail is advertising a price decrease >> why do you think that is? is it because as a customer, i've already taken the step of opening that e-mail, going to the site, figuring out what i want to buy. and i've pressed yes to putting that product in checkout, at that point, i already feel like i've put so much effort and time into that, that i should just probably buy it. >> that is part of it. then when you look at how easy it is, so they create this campaign and they have a distribution list because you've previously bought something. you have had some kind of opt-in option and if they get, you know, x number of people to go -- go forward and take action, then it just becomes very valuable because it's -- it's something that you sort of told the retailer in some way by some previous action that you would be interested in. >> digital marketers have become headline writers by the way, everyone should have a separate e-mail only -- i have an e-mail i only use for shopping and i almost never open it.

>> i need to do that. >> all the stuff i buy or the ads go to an e-mail i check once a month. >> you are wise. you are wise, mr. sullivan. >> yes all right. finally, blue or yellow? the dress is blue and black. that is the question new study shows that your cell phone's night mode, when it goes sort of orangish yellow to reduce blue light could actually be causing more harm than good researchers at the university of manchester experimented on mice and concluded apparently mice who read the internet are more likely to associate blue light with bedtime because sunlight is yellow while twilight is blue, bill griffith. >> are these the same mice that vape request gand got the lung a well these poor mice. who are these mice >> how are they testing mice read this phone and tell me. >> i'm the last guy to ask because i don't do this night shade thing on my -- >> night shade is a tomato. >> i think it is and the mice love those, by the way. >> the mice can get behind the -- does anybody use night

mode >> i used at night so i think i'm using it the right way i'm not using it during the day and getting sleepy. >> it makes the screen go like orangish-yellow. >> i don't do it but i thought in general, we're all supposed to not be using our phones, what is it like a half hour, 45 minutes before bedtime because of what it does to make us more alert. whether it's blue or yellow. >> anybody out there with a job is like can you not use your phone? you get an e-mail at 11:30, hey, can you host squawk tomorrow morning? no, because i'm in night mode right now. i'm sorry. >> sorry, lacey, i'm in night mode i didn't see that e-mail >> somebody out there in iphone land is over thinking a lot of this stuff right now. >> if you have a job, your job is to do stuff like, sometimes you don't need to do all the stuff that you do. right? it's overcomplicated. >> just set the iphone aside. >> isn't it nice all we do is just talk on television? >> play with wuzzy. >> i want to meet wuzzy. >> i thought fuzzy wuzzy was a

bear. >> no. >> thank you very much as we continue to bring you the news that you would expect from cnbc, we also stay focused on what is going on in d.c. so here is a live look at the floor of the house of representatives where, in a few hours, there will be a vote likely that will end the impeachment in the house of the president, that vote likely later tonight, could be late into the tonight. and while that has become a very partisan issue, the usmca, the trade deal, is at least one thing that congress is actually working together on. and, bizarrely, that vote is tomorrow but the timing is no accident. xtyla tausche up with that story ne

well, the house is currently in the middle of what could be an all-day impeachment debate and vote but do not forget this the house is actually scheduled to vote on the new nafta, the usmca, tomorrow. kayla tausche joining us now from washington with why those two votes, in timing, are likely linked kayla.

>> brian, it's all part of speaker nancy pelosi's yearend legislative blitz aimed at giving moderate democrats a laundry list of accomplishments to bring back to their constituents who are against impeachment. here's one of those moderates. alyssa slotkin who is from michigan and acknowledged to nbc earlier today her vote backing impeachment is controversial among her voters. >> of course, presidents use the leverage of the united states to get countries to do what they want but this was different because it was for his personal gain we cannot allow the presidency to be used that way. and we cannot allow an invitation to go out for foreigners to intervene in our political process. >> slotkin said she struggled reaching that decision but she is among three so-called front liners who helped flip trump districts and the house blue in 2018 and nearly all of them will back impeachment this evening but perhaps more notably, they're also backing a spending bill that continues funding for president trump's border wall. it supports tax cuts for biofuels, distilleries, and

nonprofits and it also rolls back certain taxes on the affordable care act. brian, as you mentioned, president trump's signature trade deal there supporting as well it's expected to pass the house tomorrow morning, even though the senate is not expected to take it up till early next year. >> what is the senate expected to do with it early next year? >> certain republicans have raised concerns about how labor-friendly the deal is they want to see exactly what some of the implementing language is. you've heard senators like john cornen from texas, rob portman from ohio saying they have concerns but only one, so far, senator pat toomey of pennsylvania said they would vote against it we could learn more about where they stand and any potential defeste defectors on that. >> dakayla tausche. kayla, thank you very much switching to housing because fannie mae is revising its housing forecast much higher for next year. what exactly is behind the

boost? icorheat might it mean f t pre of your home we'll talk about both next

strong numbers for the nation's home builders this fall, we'll have fannie mae

rethinking its 2020 outlook. diana olick joining us with more details. >> fannie mae is boosting its 2020 forecast significantly. thanks to stronger overall economic growth. researchers at the mortgage giant predict housing starts will ramp up to 10% growth next year that would mark a post recession high, but it's still far below the annual peak of about 1.7 million sith el family home starts in 2005, and the 1.2 million annual pace in the late '90s it will likely take several years even at a more robust pace for new construction starts. when you look at current sales of newly built homes, it's a smaller part of the market

>> when you look at a long term, home building had this huge peak, and then the financial crisis collapse, it's been ticking up, but man historically, we are way behind where we need to be. >> and when you add in that pent up demand and the largest generation, the millennials coming into their home bike years, it's worse than it looks. we need more homes on the existing side and the new construction side. and we need them at that entry level point which we're not getting yet. >> thank you very much on that story, diana olick it's a nice segue to this story. the current job, a record 10 plus years some believe there is a threat to the expansion and it's probably not what you think. that story has to do with demographics next. nd has never r for what we do. creating compelling, engaging, and informative content and experiences.

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and it will save you 6% on holiday gifts at apple; like iphone, apple watch, airpods pro and so much more. ♪ apply in as little as a minute, right in the wallet app. welcome back america is in the midst of around economic expansion. adding hundreds of thousands of jobs per month this could change soon a new article outlines the

thre threat here now to talk about one of the things i love talking about, greg which is demographics, long term with, all the millennials, things look good, but maybe in the near term, 5 to 10 years, maybe not so good. what's the issue with demographics >> the reason i came across this story is, i've been looking at all the forecasts people were making a decade ago. we have lower unemployment than anyone thought we could do in a ten year period. what people are less aware is that demographic projections have done worse than people expected fewer births, higher debt rate and less immigration the u.s. population is growing at a half a million people fewer than we would have expected 10 years ago. the underlying population is only growing half% a year. we've already pushed unemployment down to low levels. we have participation making up

some of its lost ground. eventually you run out of people and that's what i think is the threat to our job market >> okay, i'll push back a little bit. i know the most common age is 27, 25, 36 there's 85 to 88 million millennials. the biggest generation by far. i understand people are getting married later, they have debts they're not having kids or having fewer kids does the sheer volume of people coming up behind give us longer term optimism or no >> not really. at the same time the millennials are entering their peak house buying and having babe brings years is later we don't really know the extent to which the decline in the fertility rate which has been striking is a cyclical or structural phenomenon.

people are going to have their kids when the economy is better. the economy is better and it hasn't happened yet. these are millennials that have decided to delay when they'll get married and have kids. families that get started in their 30s will have fewer children than families that get started in their 30s >> you look at australia decades ago, they realized they had a huge problem, and they basically opened up the doors for more immigration because they realized they needed more people here a fight over legal and illegal immigration. millions of people would like to come to the united states every year there's more need than there is visas or availability. at some point we could simply increase legal immigration to help aleave yat that, right? that's right

that's probably simpler than making people have more babies it's a difficult problem even today the legal immigration is roughly 1 million per year, that's way below australia, new zealand, canada, even lower than a lot ofeuropean countries now the u.s. used to have the advantage where we would accept all these immigrants that advantage has faded away, and our fertility advantage has faded away that creates urgency for both sides. let's have a thoughtful expansion of legal immigration >> i can't speak to you greg, i'm 48 and i have a 5-year-old i'm doing my part. you can read on demographics have a great holiday

we'll see you in the new year. you have a market that is up, not a lot, but with every tick up, that's new record highs. we're going to be talking about new record highs that's it for us here on the exchange i'll see you at 5:00 p.m. on fast money power lunch starts right now >> thank you very much >> welcome everybody here's what's new at 2:00 for a wednesday. the articles of impeachment, the vote will be this evening. we'll have the latest on the ongoing discussions. plus, the market shrugging off impeachment fears as they have been for months now. inching higher with each passing tick to new records a top strategist will tell us whether the record run will rage on in the new year >> six days of shopping to go.