you can read on demographics have a great holiday we'll see you in the new year. you have a market that is up, not a lot, but with every tick up, that's new record highs. we're going to be talking about new record highs that's it for us here on the exchange i'll see you at 5:00 p.m. on fast money power lunch starts right now >> thank you very much >> welcome everybody here's what's new at 2:00 for a wednesday. the articles of impeachment, the vote will be this evening. we'll have the latest on the ongoing discussions. plus, the market shrugging off impeachment fears as they have been for months now. inching higher with each passing tick to new records a top strategist will tell us whether the record run will rage on in the new year >> six days of shopping to go.

i have to start. we'll break down the holiday retail rush as power lunch starts right now >> welcome to power lunch. let's take a look at where we stand. stocks are shrugging off the d.c. drama as tyler mentioned. as tyler mentioned, it's christmas crunch time, six days makes me nervous too let's check out some of the retailers hitting record highs today. >> nike, best buy and target, hitting their highest levels ever we're going to talk about some of those names as the hour goes on >> thank you very much wall street focused on washington today at least a little brit as the house begins to debate impeachment. a vote is expected to take place later this evening, and a man javers has more. you. >> see the action taking place down on capitol hill, on the

other end of pennsylvania avenue from here at the white house, where it is all quiet in the west wing. in fact, surprisingly quiet, no indication of any particularly special meetings today no indication that the president is doing much of anything at all. aids say he's having meetings throughout the day he sees this as an unfair impeachment effort including this one, such atrocious lies by the do nothing left, this is an assault on america, and an assault on the republican party. that's in all caps with four exclamation points there the president clearly wanting to get across the idea that he feels badly about this and thinks it's un fair. what can he do about it? not much we'll talk to a senior administration official for this impeachment vote they expect what everyone around

town expects the democrats will lose a small hand full of votes on these articles of impeachment. they expect two votes to be lost to the democrats on one article and three to be lost on the other. the democrats will likely hold largely together the republicans are expected to hold nearly entirely together. we'll wait to see what the final vote count is. >> as you watch the debate, everyone seems to be playing their roles to a tee >> how do americans feel about the impeachment process? steve liesman has our results. >> what did you learn? >> the nation is split 44% believe congress should impeach the president, 45% do not. this is a poll conducted last

week a margin of error of plus or minus 3% 73% of democrats favor impeachment. you can see the percentage in each party who favors the other way is about the same. 49% of the public approving of president trump's handling of the economy. that is a sharp rebound from september. that poll was taken just as the impeachment process began. it had a big effect on the economic approval of the president. you can see there, 49%, however, still, disapprove of the president's overawful rating, and 40% approve. it's still in that negative. the negative nine is a big improvement from the negative 16 in september some of the same americans approve of the trump economy and the job he's doing, but not necessarily of the trump presidency

>> the economy is so important >> you have 7% of democrats approving of the trump presidency 20% approving of what he's doing with the economy 28% approve of the job he's doing overall, 50% approve of the economy. i guess it's an open question which way they vote. that may depend on who's on the other side >> you can reads all about this online at cnbc.com tomorrow we have our 12th oar 134th year of the holiday shopping survey. >> 12th year >> see you then. >> the president is enjoying his highest economic approval numbers in quite some time while at the same time, lawmakers are debating the articles of impeachment on the house floor.

does today's historic vote have any impact on the election next year >> larry cited the debate between reagan and carter in 1980 are you better off today than you were four years ago that fundamentally is the question on which elections turn people can define am i better off? it's easy to focus on the economic part of it? >> there will be voters in 2020 who feel slightly better off than they did four years ago, or langley the same given that the economic numbers are a little better now than they were toward

the end of obama's term. there are a lot of things about this president that i do not like his behavior, the fact that he will be the third president in history to be impeached. it could be a significant negative for him going into he re-election. is this overreach. are there independent voters who approve of the president's job on the economy who will look at some of these moderate democrats who vote yes and say, they went too far? this is a fluid situation we do not know how it will play out in 2020, but it will have a significant impact >> we can look at the political impact of impeachment and muse about the economic and market impact of impeachment. do you see any evidence right no, that the impeachment process -- >> zero. >> a big zero. >> and you 100% agree. no impact on the markets it would seem we're going to record highs,

and -- >> and then we're back on the economy. >> yeah, i mean. i think what investors want is certainty. they're not going to like the infighting i think most people including wall street just hate washington >> i'm in washington and so, you know, we like to be loved here, this feels so political. if you already hated trump before he got elected. he actually -- if you hated him, you probably still hate him. if you don't hate him, and you want him to be able to do things for the economy, for the market as most on wall street want. it feels like this political game that's happening in washington. >> and no one's minds are being changed. >> yeah. >> to that pointed, there's an argument that these impeachment proceedings are helping the

republicans. >> there's going to be the bucket of people who hate trump and there are a bucket of people who love trump and there's everyone in the middle who probably just hates washington washington is spending a lot of time on itself what republicans have done brilliantly, instead of talking about what trump did, they're talking about what democrats are doing to drag the whole nation through this political process, and that really makes it about washington being -- it really plays out how much people don't like washington. i think republicans have a lot to gain here. >> let's presume the impeachment process will move through the house as we think it will. the president will be acquitted in the senate. when we come to november of next year, are people going to remember this? or are they -- or will there be

the next controversy, and the next issue they're focused on? >> it's a fair point we live in a news cycle that is 30 seconds long, we move on to the next thing quickly it's sort of a split feeling for me it's an historic day it will be the third time in history a president is impeach ed there will be a senate trial and an acquittal so much can happen between now and then so many crisis, or good things can happen maybe we get an economy moving forward. i'm not sure that impeachment is going to be the thing that swings the election one way or the other. it will be a factor, may not be the dominating factor. it depends on what trump does between being impeached and acquit acquitted. >> to the extent impeachment remains an issue, i think it

remains an issue, because it gives the gop and the president a big kudgle with which to beat up on his opponents. >> it does do that it allows the democrats to say he was impeached for reasons, if you look at the evidence, there's plenty of evidence to suggest he did what is exactly alleged with duprey, he held up money in return for investigation of his political opponent republicans can say that democrats are just playing politics, they're also making the constitutional argument that we were elected to hold the president accountable for his actions. >> and that's what we tried to do >> that's what we did. >>. coming up, we are a week away from christmas. we'll look at the winners and losers and get a top pick for 2020 and how big of a threat to netflix is disney plus how many subs netflix might lose

every year, our analysts visit thousands of companies, in a multitude of countries, where we get to know the people that drive a company's growth and gain new perspectives. that's why we go beyond the numbers. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

that's why we go beyond the numbers. tonight is a magical night. anything is possible. i love it.

welcome back, it's been a roller coaster year for retailers, we're just one week away from christmas. the group has had to tackle several head winds, from online shopping booms to the risk of tariffs, and then throw in the

shorter holiday shopping season which freaked us all out joining us now is oliver, managing director at cowan, thanks for being here with us. we're going to start things off with target. nearly doubling this year. and hitting a record high today i have to say, though, if i can give one critique, it doesn't seem that target came up with a strategy that other people are doing. >> target, the story here is -- the businesses are private brands, they've also been doing a great job using stores as film and options. particularly curbside, our drive up, pick up. that's a huge idea which has been successful. thinking about digital and private brands it's a trusted brand and store that americans really love that's been all working together to add value and convenience

the other part of target is operating margins. operating margins are in the 6% range, they're going higher and that's a positive using stores as fulfillment is a more profitable manner to deliver goods to people. >> on your idea about the private label, many other retailers have their own private label. whether it's walmart, kohl's or macy's it was a key pillar of the strategy from the beginning. why is target's label working better than others >> target has a rich history of being a great merchant we lovewhat they've been doing with private labels. they identify opportunities from goods and gathers, pillow fort for kids

they're really thinking about the customer, and target has the ability to market and expand because people trust the target brangd >> these are all great aspects that target has really been able to execute too we like the kirkland brand at costco the private label story here is quite special. and also, there's a difference between the macy's and apparel versus the whole broad line's experience at target. >> fair enough, it's fundamentals we know they've been a major disappointment macy's down 15% from its 52 week high you hear a lot of people say look, jeff gannett has a lot of good ideas

at the end of the day, is it a format issue >> there's a tough problem here with the mall. the lower tier malls, the lower performing malls are not an exciting place to be we've seen a lot of great success at tjmaxx, even target has a great clothing offering. >> the younger customer is interested in subscription models, the real reel. and rethinking clothing as rentals. these are all aspects which are eating away at share and the biggest problem is women's apparel, that continues to be an issue as well as the shopping mall, the future of the mall, and rethinking malls too be much more experiential.

>> i want to move on, we're looking ahead at 2020 after this choppy year with a clear divergence between winners and losers, what retailer do you like the most for 2020 >> we continue to be excited about this whole value play, so target, walmart, costco, we also like a specialty retailer called boot barn. it's a $20 billion western wear market i was in texas at the rodeo. i grew up in louisiana they have a 5% share of this market they can double their stores from 250 to 500. what we're seeing is a very fascinating by fur indication in retail you either play with strong players or strong leaders, such as boot barn and ulta. these can compete against amazon and offer you specialized

merchandise and an entry >> maybe just simple cowboy boots if you're heading to nashville. oliver, thank you very much. >> thank you, happy holidays, and get shopping shops of facebook and twitter higher today we're watching the impeachment debate play out on capitol hill right now. how big of an issue is it to the markets. we heard a couple experts a moment ago say zero. power lunch will be right back and etfs are commission-free.s and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk

while our competition continues to talk. (vo) than just the business theryou came for.more whether that's getting a taste of where you are, or bringing some of that flavor back home. that's room for possibility.

♪ let's get to living welcome back to power lunch. wall street split on social stocks these days. deutche bank lifting its price target for facebook. while city slashes its target on twitter on some refrn new concerns let's bring in the trading nation team today. katie, both these stocks, even though the calls were in different directions, both these stocks happen to be up today how does each look in terms of your work, in terms of the

trend, which would you prefer. >> facebook would be the winner from a technical perspective, it's a long up trend it still has positive momentum across time frames and has a potential bullish long term foundation that would be completed on a breakout of final resistance, twitter on the other hand is more of a range on a long term basis, if we saw twitter get up into the gap down in october, it would be a nice incremental. but as it compares to facebook, facebook would win >> you know the story, big picture for this entire sub sector has been, they're winning eyeballs over a long period of time what's not to like there? >> i think you need to be selective in the space look

where the social media stocks have come 10 years ago 10 years ago, we were talking about my space over the next ten years we could be talking about a delusion of eyeballs because there are way too many look at 30 years ago, snap was all the rage, and now you're looking at like tiktok is starting to take eyeballs away none of these platforms can charge a subscription fee, because eyeballs will pick up and go somewhere else. this is not dimension where you have things like pot casts coming as well i think you need to be selective in the space, but ten years from now, we get to talk about the delusion of the platforms. >> maybe some of these companies will say, we're vulnerable

you can't break us up. >> thank you very much more trading nation, head to our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation. >> we will do that, michael. ahead on power lunch, stocks climbing despite the drama in d.c. such that it is the markets shrugging off the big risks this year. why the best gift to give this year could be shares in a company. and jingle bells stocks, tim seymour coming to town with some stock advice, all this when power lunch continues. and now the latest from trading nation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. every trader should accept that losses are a part of the process. so in an effort to reduce your risk and define your max loss, consider using stock

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welcome back, everyone, i'm sue herera, here is your cnbc update at this hour. senate majority lead per mitch mcconnell and senate minority leader chuck schumer comment on the event and the expected senate impeachment trial >> the country is waiting to see whether these house democrats will give in to the temptation that every other house in modern history has managed to resist, and misuse the solemn process of impeachment to blow off partisan stain. >> president trump you have a habit of accusing others of the offenses if you have committed if you want due process to present your side of the case, let your aides testify and turn over the documents we've requested. on a happy note, a delaware boy who received thousands of

birthday cards and gifts is now delivering nearly 2500 toys to kids in the same hospital. delivering the toys to other kids who will be spending the holidays in the hospital that is your feel good story of the day. that's the news update, guys, back to you. >> the markets are modestly higher stocks on track for the sixth straight day of gains the gains are pretty modest. but they're higher take a look at shares of tesla, though that one is up 3% today. record high there for what's been a volatile year for the electric carmaker. a $49 per share price target, skechers is cheap compared to its peers. colombia sportswear being added

to the mid cap index that means fund managersville to buy that stock as we end, we're going to end with steel case. it's on pace for its best day ever, and highest close in 20 years. stocks higher by 18% reporting better than expected earnings and sales the phrase follow the money became famous in the watergate scandal and it's popping up in another impeachment scandal. an alleged threat to delay $400 million in military aid to the ukraine. >> the first article of impeachment, abuse of power $400 million in military aid to ukraine was held up to try to pressure the country to conduct the investigation into the bidens, but this legal memo from the white house explains why the

administration believes it did have the authority to withhold the money, and it argues this is not a policy referral, but a programmatic delay pause in setting to assess facts and assure programmatic effectiveness is not a deferral of funds this is not the first time the white house has used the budget process in order to advance its goals. the administration has been paying for the border wall by transferring money to other accounts so far the courts have issued mixed rulings on whether that is legal. typically, the office of management and budget is one of the wonkier offices in the white house, guys, but in this administration it has become a political lightning rod. >> thank you very much stocks rallying once again to record highs as the markets seek greater clarity bob pisani joins us from the new york stock

exchange >> we've been up advancing almost every day in the last couple weeks >> today the fed has been neutral, the u.s. economy sees recession chances low, or at least people have come to believe that here's a thorny issue, whether or not the global economy is bottoming out there's been indicators it has, it hasn't. you want to look at fred smith's comment overall, independently, fedex's issues, the eurozone is seeing some stabilization in manufacturing, china is seeing student in the second half of 2020 slow in the first half, trade volume overall, he expects a return to positive growth in 2020, provided we don't continue the trade wars as it is. let's call this some indication

of a global bottom, it enforces that view point that we are getting some kind of rally global fund managers survey, over bank of america that was out yesterday. 31%, are overweight equities, the highest it's been in a year. 48% are underweight, bonds, that's the highest underweight they've had in a year. 68% say there's not going to be a recession. that's an enormous difference. profits going to improve in 2020 60% say it will improve. that's an enormous increase in the last month, obviously, we have some issues here that are slowly getting resolved. and a lot of traders feel there's better visibility than there was a month ago. >> thanks, bob, some of that worry appears to be clearing off. so with those four horse men getting left in the dust, will the bulls keep charging ahead in the new year

ben white is back on the desk with us. bob laid out nicely these four horse men, she's big worries we had. many of them seem to be disappearing today is an historic day because of what's going on in d.c. with the impeachment. is this happening because investors believe the president will not actually be taken out of office, and that provides us some certainty about policy going into 2020? >> the short answer is yes markets see this as a lock for the president. we will go through the kabuki theater of the house impeaching and the senate acquitting. last week was the huge week for risk we had the usmca announcement the conservatives winning in the u.k., an announcement of the china deal and then there was this

impeachment thing, and that seemed to get lost for the market in the midst of all this other positiveness >> in the end, stock prices basically depend on profits? >> correct >> what do you see for 2020, is it going to resume at a better level or what? >> we see an inflexion in growth in the real economy. and the market performance is telling you that, it's not just that the u.s. is up this year, we've seen markets stabilize what that tells you is fundamentals are bottoming and perhaps moving upward. >> we pay a lot of attention to the different democratic candidates, their policies as they come out with what's going on in washington and the impeachment proceedings, how is that impacting the democratic

field of candidates. >> that's an interesting question which democratic nominee emerges as the likely opponent to donald trump. you tend to see more volatility, less certainty about capital expenditures i think that's a recipe for more volatility in terms of impeachment impact, this is going to satisfy the hardcore progressive wing of the party, that nancy pelosi delivered on impeachment, sent the message that we believe this presidential behavior was high crimes and misdemeanors, there will be less of a moment toward hardcore candidates. it's probably good for someone like joe biden who continues to lead nationally in the polls it dates back to the democratic party nominee at this point. there will be less passion after

impeachment is done. we will go sanders because you didn't deliver us impeachment. a little more room for the moderates to get the nomination. >> let's come back to you with what ben just talked about it would seem to me the markets might be vulnerable if there is a warren surge or a sanders surge. a look at warren, she's made it plane that she wants to break up big tech, big banks and doesn't like korpgs period >> there is a volatility trade coming toward us sometime between early february and early march. you have super tuesday march 3rd, there is a lot of opportunity for a lot of unexpected results here, and let's face it, iowa does not always choose the winner of who's going to be the ultimate nominee, it can tell you who the loser is, if joe biden comes in

third or fourth in iowa, or third or fourth in new hampshire, when you think about it, warren is next door, and bernie sanders is also next door, this could be damaging to what the market is expecting to happen in november the market is expecting a market friendly outcome >> thank you for being with us today. >> rick santelli is tracking the action on the bond market. >> i'll tell you what, there's a lot of action today. and it's very important activity up one basis point, look at one week of tech tens are up four basis points. curve steepening, let's look at tens minus twos, it's marching higher, it hasn't been 30 basis points wide since we were all eating turkey a year ago

thanksgiving let's call it 13 months we're continually seeing other sovereigns do the same thing, it will be interesting to see tomorrow if the sweetest central bank raises rates from minus 25 to zero, thinking they have finally come to the end of the road on any positives with the negative rates over the last five years, courtney, back to you. >> thank you, rick >> coming up, what would happen if you gave everyone on your list stock this holiday season you may get some angry looks christmas morning, but would you be the cool aunt or uncle in the long run us the tasting menu, the disney pl threat, teen vaping and uber for everything. when i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence.

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invest in you ready set grow partnership with a corn, sharon opinion. >> buying stock in companies can be a smart way to give a gift that's on everyone's list, and it do have a big pay off discovering the power of compound interest coulding a terrific gift for your child or grandchild you'll need to set up a custodial account. until the child turns 18, 21 or older. after that age, the child takes control. the fractional shares, check out stockpile. the recipient can redeem it for a whole stock or partial shares. there are more than 1,000 companies or ets to choose from, if you want to show off your stock gift, buy a stock certificate from gift a share. you'll have to pay at least a

$40 premium as well as transfer agent and sec fees those are a few options to give a gift of stock and let them actually be a part owner in the company. >> that is interesting i didn't realize you had to keep these if you wanted something physical >> if you want to have it framed and look pretty. that makes sense >> is this something people want everyone looks for a cash gift, i think it seems not so thoughtful this could be more than $100 if you buy $100, and it doubles or triples >> 40% of people don't want to give cash. 61% want cash. or gift cart and so maybe this was the difference, you get a gift card for a stock. >> some good tips for those of us that are not done yet >> thank you very much nearly 7% of disney plus

users who also have netflix plan to cancel said netflix this according to a new bank of america survey it remains to be seen whether or not they follow through. shares of netflix are up more than 20% this year this goes in the category of things people say they're going to do, and probably when push comes to shove fewer of them will do it >> i think so too. unless you take real action, it's almost easier to let this subscription go. also, 7% is not a huge number. disney plus is 7 bucks a month for a lot of people it may be worth it to have that disney movie on in the background when the kids need distraction. this is a bit scary, according to the journal of the american medical association, the number of adolescents vaping is rising. the percentage of 12th graders

vaping thc within the past 30 days, nearly doubled year over year to 14% in 2019, that's according to the university of michigan, marijuana use overall has remained stable, those who do use marijuana products are likely using them more often this i imagine is troubling for a lot of people, those that have teens that they know and love, also, those of us that are worried about what we don't know yet. >> i went into the high school where my son will go we think next year. and the billboard, the bulletin boards were all plastered with anti-vaping information which tells you just how concerned schools are about it it wasn't about thc vaping, but the dangers of lung infection and so on and so forth it really is top of mind for educators at the high school level. >> i want people to know >> if you decide to make that choice, okay, please be aware of things we don't know yet uber doubling down on the

gig economy. the ride sharing company plans to expand its temporary staffing service uber works, which connects workers with businesses offering short term jobs in areas like hospitality and events the service is already being tested in chicago and has plans to expand into miami next year, and eventually more cities over the next year, and some of these gigs may include doing household chores for you as well i'm not sure i'd go for that not knowing the individuals and having a personal reference standing behind who i invite into my house to clean, cook, do laundry or whatever other chores i may have >> it makes people reticent it's probably not a huge risk financially to try this out. >> safety a concern with something like that. >> okay, well, after the break, he's coming to town, he's making

a list, checking it twice. which stocks have been naughty or nice. ♪ ♪ ♪

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all right. with christmas right around the corner, here to play santa and help find the right stops is tim seymour. this is called schtick with tim. nice, a buy or naughty, a sell i can do that. mr. grinch let's start with the stock you picked in the stock draft, macy's naughty or nice? >> you're a nice guy i think macy's is a nice stock once again what was once naughty again, delevering, buying back some of their debt part of the story here, balance sheet optimization off-price model in some of their empire is working. so, again, for something that was once naughty, the calendar doesn't make it suddenly get nice, but i do think some of these drivers are important. >> number two, chipotle. naughty or nice? >> incredibly nice year. naughty. not because chipotle has done

anything, but the valuation is naughty. 17.75 consensus, you're about 52 times. digital sales, loyalty program are well priced in here. i think it's going to be tough to equal that in 2020. >> johnson & johnson, despite its troubles up 10% this year. naughty or nice for 2020 >> there's a lot going on here, but it is a nice story in terms of the valuation right now it's trading at a 15% discount to the s&p this hasn't done this in a decade we know why, i think, the headlines. businesses are often a driver and slated in 2020 to pick up. you just get to a 5% discount. >> apple which again has had a year-to-date performance few better than it. >> it's been incredibly nice, tyler. i think you have a case here where again we talk so much about services, this is a

naughty 2020 pick. if only because i think it has rerated. it's 20 times forward. this is a hybrid based upon services and digital love the story i'm actually long in the stock but i think 2020 will be a lot tougher. >> when would you sell it or go short? when would you get rid of it >> people tend to play this game, am i an investor or trader in apple i'm absolutely an investor here. wearables are expected to be growing 25%. there's nothing wrong with what they've done. >> let's move on to boeing, which is our bonus stock do you like it, naughty or nice? >> again, very, very naughty if you think about what the stock has endured announcements in the last couple of days, how the stock has performed, yeah, it's nice. it's nice. i'll tell you why. i think the boeing story certainly will be on hold. faa politics right now are very important. i think the company did what

they had to do in this announcement. >> basically your discipline here is love this year's unloved. unlove this year's loved >> well, tyler, you probably have never been naughty. i was a guy that was at one point and have gone nice a lot of bad news is priced into a lot of these stocks. >> naughty tim seymour brought his paddle doesn't get naughtier than that. >> thank you. >> stick around. "check please" is coming up next

check, please. tesla up 62% in the past three months after the company had a surprise profit for its third quarter. 393, almost 400. it's something like 425. something like 425 that elon musk said would be the point that the company could be bought out. i don't think he's in a selling mood right now the company firing very nicely and up to day as you see. >> cyber truck and video the glass. also want to mention fedex, lower their guidance point out weakening global conditions other shippers don't seem to be seeing this. you look at shares of u.p.s., for example, year to date up 21% while fedex is down 8 or 9% year

to date. >> and you wonder whether the loss of that amazon business. >> it's funny they did sort of say there's a loss of business from a large customer today but previously in june there's 1.3% of total revenues. does it hurt, does it not? they've got other problems. >> closing bell starts right no now. >> in for sara ei sechsen todaym contessa brewer. nasdaq and s&p hitting new intr intr intra-day highs, we're all over both stories. >> i'm wilfred frost the major averages are looking to extend the trade deal win streak to six sessions small caps seeing gains as well with the russell 2000 a new 52-week high and fedex is far and