joining us today appreciate it very much. >> you bet hay pi holidays. before we go, tesla is keeping things interesting in this year's stock draft. at no time did brian's lips move while i was saying all that. noah syndergaard made a play for the stock. he is leading because of tesla right now. how cool >> nick lowrie is sort of -- it's him and syndergaard because of amd thanks for watching, everybody >> very much "closing bell" is next ♪ welcome to "closing bell." i'm seema mody in for sara eisen here at the boeing post where shares are under pressure yet again. the worst performer on the dow as the stock limps into year end. on wall street, the broader markets are at market highs. 59 minutes left in trade >> i'm carl quintanilla in for wilfred frost. nasdaq did hit 9,000 for the first time ever.

tenth straight record close driven by all the names that worked all winter long plus a strong read on retail holiday shopping numbers do not disappoint. and jobless claims fall pointing to continued strength in the labor market joining us for the hour, anastasia om row sew it is great to have you with us. >> great to see you. >> what do we make of this >> it's typical. we melt up into year end i mean, think about all the things that got resolved in december we've got the phase one basically a done deal between u.s. and china maybe a little bit overlooked by the usmca getting passed by the house. we've got a lot of good enthuse. we started to see the inflection point. what's interesting in the internals of the market is what people are buying. what do you do when the s&p is up almost 30% for the year

you start to look for the laggards it's emerging markets, health care, energy those are the ones rallying the most >> to break down those areas you see opportunity over the course of the hour. for now let's drill down on today's moves in the market. frank holland covering a record-setting day for the nasdaq as that index crossing above,000 for the first time ever bob pisani has the numbers here at the exchange. frank, start us off. >> the road to 9,000 for the nasdaq was paved with yoga pants and lattes let's start with the chips amd gaining 59%. lululemon and lam research up. starbucks a percent below. we focus on faang names but it's been a mixed bag for them since the 8,000 mark for the nasdaq. apple shares improving 33% but amazon and netflix falling by single digits when you change the horizon year to date, much better performance all across the board but amazon and netflix still

underperforming the nasdaq 100 today as the nasdaq is on pace for its tenth consecutive close, amazon is the best performer >> frank, as much as we watch retail, you brought us news earlier today about a number of returning u.p.s. is expecting. that's going to put this logistics chain to test. >> absolutely. u.p.s. is expecting the busiest day for online returns 1.9 million. that's a 26% increase over just last year. so obviously returns are becoming a bigger part of this e-commerce story when you see amazon offering free returns on millions of items. more and more people are buying with the sense they can return there's also a survey from xpo logistics that 83% of online buyers decide to buy based on the return policy. >> as we see at amazon, up better than 4% today

thanks meantime, the s&p within striking distance of notching its best year not since 2013 but back to '97. >> nasdaq has had the big move up, but remember the new york stock exchange has a composite index and today it, too, is at a historic high. what moves things over at nasdaq is tech. what moves things down here are things like financials we're seeing financials hitting new highs as we've seen interest rates move up and consumer being strong so leadership, bank of america new highs. jpmorgan, citigroup recently 52-week highs. and big moves up this quarter. it's been terrific for them overall. finally, i know we talk about nasdaq versus nyse here. we've seen growth outperform this year. and that means tech. the nasdaq compos sieve up 38% or so on the year. heavy on financials up about

25%. little underperformance. still not bad. overall markets just been terrific this year >> to say the least. bob, thank you turning to retail, christmas may be over, but today marks the third busiest shopping day of the year according to shopper track. for the holiday spending, mastercard says overall sales up 3.4% over the shortened holiday period while e-commerce sales climbed 18.8%. amazon surging today as the company says it had a record-breaking holiday selling tens of millions of amazon devices. amazon says the most popular purchases included the echo dot, fire tv stick, and the alexa voice remote okay, anastasia, if amazon is so successful getting consumers online, why has the stock flatlined this year. up 15% in 2019 >> amazon specifically is going through their reinvestment period they're investing in the one-day prime shipping and i think it is actually

paying off this holiday season as we speak. so typically what happens for a stock like that is they go through a period of increased investing which is what they're doing now. so that's why maybe the stock is flat lining somewhat but typically that tends to pay off over the subsequent period of time. so i can't comment on amazon specifically but just thinking about the investment of these stocks, that's how we would approach it. one quick comment i would make on e-commerce, amazon and alibaba, it's about 50% of e-commerce sales which means 50% is being done by something else when we think about investment opportunity, yes, amazon is one way to approach it the other is to think about the logistic partners, the logistical payments. so there's a lot more to do if maybe you miss some of the upside in the traditional e-commerce. >> not to mention the cloud. the race those two companies have going right now at the same time after the break, stocks sitting on some big gains for the year

as you know, we're going to talk to one market expert who says a pullback is on the horizon >> and later, shares of tesla hitting another record high in today's session. and one analyst says elon musk is proving the skeptics wrong. we'll get the word on the street on that call ahead as we head to break, here's a check on our data tracker mortgage applications falling 5.3% last week initial jobless claims fell as well down 13,000 to 222,000. longel wl rht back built for all people. - [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. - [man] without snhu, i wouldn't be the leader i am today. - [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. i still finished. - [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. that's what snhu is. - you will march from this arena and say to the world.. i did it. - [woman] you did it. i love you. - [graduate] i love you too.

50 minutes of trade left let's get to mike santoli. >> hey, carl here's what we're going to look at over the next couple of hours. many happy returns that's not just gifts going back to stores. today going to track the path of this rally then boxes big and small the story of retail, big boxes or delivery boxes. the neediest cases year end always a good time to look at some of the dogs of the dow or the other indexes as well and then post-holiday payback. that is a question basically asking if there's a jarring ride to the new year. let's look at a somewhat longer term, three return of the s&p

500 here this is going to capture a lot of the comings and goings, of course here is early 2018 pretty climactic top we are looking at another year-end uptrend that started with a pullback in august. and right back here, you also had this little mini pullback in august of 2017 people got enthusiastic. we got the passage of the tax law. and then as we got into year end as you know, people piled in we thought it was an all clear are we seeing something similar here this is about a 10% move from august to year end this is more like a 13% move we've broken out to a new high worth keeping in mind. again, we saw a real rush into stocks going into january in 2018 so i want to keep that analogy on the radar right now then we're talking about the nasdaq hitting,000 for the first time a 20-year chart of the nasdaq divided by the s&p 500 this is just the relative performance of nasdaq over s&p tech bubble peak in 2000

that's when the nasdaq hit 5,000. there's your crash that's the tech bust and then 2002, 2003 this relationship bottoms boy, what a steady, consistent uptrend we've seen here. actually flattened out it shows the u.s. market has been mostly about the dominance of secular growth stories which are also dominating the nasdaq right now and have for a long time >> the gradualism of that makes you think it's not mania like we saw in the late '90s. >> has become the overall economy or at least the s&p 500. the top four stocks in the s&p all stocks seems like more of a reflection of what the market wants to capitalize right here. because the economy is moving in that direction. >> mike, thank you anastasia, when you see the nasdaq hitting this big round number of,00 9,000, what does it tell you

even though tech is up 50% this year, i don't expect that's going to slow down next year the interesting thing about tech spending, for example, was actually essentially flat this year it was up about globally 0.4%. next year we expect that to accelerate, reaccelerate to 3.7% so i think that to your point is a pretty positive sentiment indicator if tech -- if companies, the cios are spending on software, spending on data centers, spending on devices that is positive the economy is looking up. >> yeah. that's clear for more on macro themes to watch into the new year, let's bring in chris johnson, ceo and director of research at johnson research group chris, thank you for joining us today on "closing bell." >> great to be with you. >> let's -- i've been looking through your notes you're in the camp that this market is due for a pullback that a consolidation of some sort is imminent yet the nasdaq hit 9,000 what needs to happen for this pullback to take place

>> you know what i don't think mike could have set it up better for me. if you look at this, it's almost a carbon copy of what we saw 2017 leading into 2018 had a market at the tail end of the year just took off back then we were crossing 7,000 on the nasdaq. and almost in an instant we went from 7,000 to 7,500. stocks took off. everybody couldn't get enough money into the market. then all of a sudden we hit this overbought signal. today's readings, a number of those technical indicators that we look like are matching what we saw mid-january 2018. this is part of what i would call a pullback would be part of just a return to a healthy distribution for stocks. we've over-stretched the rubber band right now it's time to come back a little bit, put things into perspective. and it's going to be convenient that we're going to have earnings season that kicks off the second weekend in january. i think that's going to be your catalyst of sell the news here >> i was going to say, i heard this argued earlier today on the air that earnings are going to need to fill this multiple now that it's expanded a bit

are we going to start getting concerns on conference calls beginning on the 14th? >> i think earnings and data will need to fill the gap for sure but we are expecting the data to start to turn up in q1 i want to make one comment on rsi. maybe we can talk more about it. it is indicated that it's somewhat reliable as seven or eight is a overbought level and will turn back how shally, how pronounced that pullback is going to be. so from my vantage point is yes, we are in a period of some consolidation, but whatever pullback we get which i expect to be shallow, you ultimately want to buy. the other thing we look at is hedge fund positions virtually 100% over the last two years. it tells you hedge funds have leveled up maybe you're poised for a bit of a pullback when investors step in when data picks up but constructive comments on

earnings i think the market will actually drift higher >> chris, how much do you think lower rates have played a role in this market you look at the 10-year yield, it started at 2.86% on the first of january now we're at 1.9%. >> i think they've helped to fuel money coming into the stock market obviously there's been a money migration, if you will, not only from sector to sector levels but the bond market into stocks. if we keep rates where they are and i think you'll see rates not move around much, the stronger dollar also in the backdrop of those rates is really what's starting to drive some of those areas of the market that have been forgotten, if you will. materials, consumer staples. even if we look at some of the commodity base ed companies, wee seeing the dollar strengthen really a look out towards a global economy and how we're seeing the global economy start to expand a little more. this is the first time we've really had that. you know, the united states, our domestic economy has been seen as the cleanest shirt in the

hamper, if you will. and kind of pulling everybody along. now we're finally getting a hint there's something else out there. and i think that is really what's going to be the driver when we look at those earnings statements through the fourth quarter here and hear companies on how they're looking at the global markets right now. that's your next big bull market catalyst. >> chris, really quick those of us who were around for the late '90s and the dotcom bust, would you expect retail to participate in the way it did back then? >> i do. i think you're going to see a little bit of it that's because we've seen consumer spending that's just been unbridled here, carl. consumers are out there. they're not returning gifts right now. they're looking for what else they want right now. when we see income going up the way it has been, i mean, this is just a great consumer-driven model economy right now. i think that you will see retail participate. it is going to be a pick and choose sector though there are going to be losers in that group >> all right we'll leave the conversation there. chris, thank you for joining us. chris johnson. and up next on the show,

morning star out with its top name in the restaurant space for 2020 and it is a stock that has lagged this market all year long the analyst behind the call reveals his pick next. and later, former toys r us ceo gerald storch breaks down the retailers he thinks are going to win big in 2020 for 20 years. een a cr no two patients are the same. predicting the next step for them can be challenging. today we're using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patient's recovery. ♪ ♪ ultimately, it's helping thousands of patients return home. and who doesn't love going home.

welcome back to "closing bell." time now to get the word on the

street wedbush raising target on tesla to $370 from $270. the analyst behind the call has been bearish on the stock downgrading it back in april here's what he said on "squawk box" just last month >> right now i think this is sort of the next one to two quarters will determine if this is the $250 stock or $450. we continue to be more cautious here >> anastasia, a lot to look forward to in 2020 not just electric vehicles but you have the launch of its shanghai facility. at a time a lot of companies are moving out of china, tesla really investing in the country with a launch there. sbl yeah and i think because companies like tesla realize if you go into invest in the electric vehicle trend, you have to be in china. something like 56% of global ev sales are actually taking place in china they have more charging infrastructure in china than the rest of the world combined

so you definitely have to be there. but we're actually quite bullish on electric vehicles into 2020 2019 has not been a great year because global auto sales have slowed down so ev sales have slowed down with it. but looking out to 2020, you know, china probably is not going to do much on the subsidy front. we are expecting ev sales to pick up in china in 2020 and especially in europe electric vehicle sales are likely to rise 130% next year. so the overall penetration is going from 9% to 28% so those are all the reasons to be optimistic on the space there's a lot to do there. you can look to oems you can look at, you know, european auto companies. you could look at the supply chain. and for example, korean battery makers will be benefitting from this as well >> tesla's had a stunning rally. up 77% this year carl, there are 14 analysts that cover this stock this speaks to the spectrum of

calls on this specific stock >> yes and some analysts have both. the bear case and the bull case. cowen updates on abbvie. the migraine treatment drug is important for abbvie as they were noted by the management team as having meaningful commercial potential this note highlighting themes to watch for the restaurant sector including breakfast, value, and traditional menu items updates on plant based, digital dri delivery, new box designs. that's going to be interesting to see if restaurants can get some traffic going for the first time in a few years. >> that will be interesting to see. that has not been the case for the last couple of years and the challenge i would have with restaurants in 2020 is look at commodity prices. so they're actually showing signs of life, you know, outside of energy and metals the pork, soybean prices are starting to move higher on the back of the u.s./china trade

deal you can have a bit of commodity inflation creep into the profit margins. and then wages are continuing to rise you look at retail you look at restaurants. and it's the revenue per employee which is quite low for the restaurant space >> we're going to watch that speaking of restaurants, our next guest names mcdonald's. r.j., good to have you back. >> thanks, carl. >> do you want to buy any quick service if beef prices are going up yeah 2020 have caution looking into the space in general right now trading close to the peak valuation crowne, for a lot of the reasons that were just pointed out whether it be wage growth or commodity growth to your point earlier, there hasn't been a lot of traffic even a big year for delivery sales typically in an election year, we see a lot of volatility i think that could be the case what i'm looking for in a restaurant pick is a company

that's investing in the technology, can play in the value space. that's going to be a big theme this year. and one that has a healthy tour. >> are you worried about the dollar in that case? some argue the dollar is on its way to broad base declines that would be good news for mcdonald's >> it would be 65% of the profits come from outside the u.s. that would help out the cause here looking at different catalysts, too, the different things i'm looking at here. whether it be plant based or fried chicken sandwiches the other story here is it's a management change. we have the high profile departure of steve easterbrook in november. i think chris is actually a strong leader not getting enough credit from the market at this point either >> yeah. do you think mcdonald at this point still trying to learn about this new strategy. but mcdonald's does in a way carry the additional burden of being a legacy player.

you have chipotle reinventing its food menu. does mcdonald's have what it takes to keep up with peers in 2020 >> i do. i think on two fronts. the company is still benefits from its future modeling of the restaurants in order to bring in digital ordering, table services in some cases too. but i think the real opportunity here and i think what chris is going to be known for going forward is some of the reinvention at the drive-thru. one dynamic yield which is a predictive ordering platform for the drive-thru the other is voice ordering. i think we're going to start to see some benefit from this in 2020 in particular on the predictive ordering front. you go through a drive-thru. technology can make predictive ordering options or give you different options that maybe you weren't think of that's going to have an average check. when they have the voice ordering which is going to take more time to implement, i think that will be a benefit

you know, that's an area of the restaurant, the drive-thru, that hasn't seen a lot of reinvention. i think mcdonald's could be a leader on that front really keeping up with its peers in some ways taking the mantle in some ways >> all right we're going to watch that. obviously a lot of cross currents in restaurants. thanks have a great weekend >> you too take care. when we come back, we've got your last chance trade then later the nasdaq as we said hitk for the first time today. but will it put the brakes on tech next year we'll talk about that with arizona's outspoken ag here's a check on bonds. u.s. treasury yields, little change in today's session. the 10-year yield right around 1.9% "closing bell" will be right back robinhood believes now is the time to do money.

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here are the three things driving the action the nasdaq hitting 9,000 for the first time ever on track for its 11th positive close driven by names that have worked all year like amazon, apple, and lululemon. holiday shopping numbers did not disappoint and amazon reporting strong sales jobless claims also falling pointing to strength in the labor market it's now time for a cnbc news update with bill griffith >> hello here's what's happening at this hour after a two-week manhunt, a 14-year-old boy suspected of murdering a barnard college freshman has been arrested tessa majors was that freshman she was killed while walking in a park in new york city. the 14-year-old teenager is suspected of being one of three people involved in her stabbing. armed robbers shot two customers at a denny's in virginia killing one of them the robbers entered the restaurant early this morning many manassas, virginia, demanding valuables from employees and customers. police say at somepoint, there

was some sort of encounter and the shooting began and the suspects do remain at large. and while retail sales over the holiday shopping season increased by 3.4%, not everyone was happy with what they received u.p.s. says it's expecting 1.9 million packages to enter its system on january 2nd. that is traditionally the peak day for returns. and that is a 26% spike from last year. finally, vladimir putin enjoyed the holidays he was at the new year gala concert in the bolshoi theater speaking from the stage, he thanked everyone for their work and expressed optimism for 2020. we know he's a hands-on kind of guy. you guys mentioned he played hockey last night with a bunch of professional golfers and his team won when he scored five goals. i'm surprised that he didn't try the male lead of swan lake or something at the bolshoy while he was at it. >> every goalie has an off day,

we made that point in the last hour can't win them all >> no, you cannot. see you next hour though >> all right see you soon let's get to mike santoli and the second installment of the dashboard. >> amazon playing some catch-up. retail right now is a little bit of a push/pull between big box retail and those small delivery boxes that amazon is kind of peppering the world with i've been making the points over the last few weeks -- in a strong nasdaq tape maybe we're in this moment the this rally it's carried on so long it's kind of picking up the laggards. it's everybody into the pool type move. or perhaps this really was just a stock taking a little bit of a rest and you see it base kri kind of clearing this area that was causing some people, i think, to have some concern.

about $1800 a share. you know, that was the real peak in the stock and the momentum was 15, 16 months ago. you have to bear watching amazon, how it behaves here. look at this chart of amazon against walmart. of course we know that walmart had really had a resounding comeback and you see again, it's a similar story here where amazon seems like maybe it's trying to base against walmart walmart was that defensive trade for awhile so this is looking up for amazon but i would like to see that continue into the new year to see it's not just, again, just like momentum taking everything higher in this late stage of the rally. >> we were talking a moment ago about the various characteristics of amazon. do you think it trades on core retail now is it a cloud story? >> it doesn't consistently trade on core i don't think. although maybe as a lot of people argue, cloud has actually been revalued lower to a degree if you look across at comps and

all the rest maybe now it can trade a little more on retail because there wasn't a lot of growth value assigned to that it's very difficult to know. it actually is sort of its own species in that way it hasn't traded with retail or necessarily with software, for example. >> there are definitely several drivers. i think the cloud one is very important. and it's important for the technology industry, once again looking through the spending numbers for 2020 we're expecting data center to pick up. enterprise is to pick up all of this is playing out in the cloud. cloud security is going to be a big space as well. a company like amazon is at the cross section of a lot of these trends >> all right the financial industry suffering around half of all corporate data breaches in 2019. kate rooney has a look at the so-called white hack hackers that they're trying to find. >> soda ta breaches can be a ce -- because of the big payoff.

some are hiring freelance hackers to find vulnerabilities before criminals do. it's called a bug bounty program. goldman sachs, capital one, u.s. military are taking part in these programs combined to a network of half a million hackers who get paid based on how many loopholes they find >> we're like the neighborhood watch. we come to your house. we look for ways to break in if we can break in, we tell you. we don't break in. we tell you how we could have done it. >> the company is becoming a popular bet for investors. it's backed by microsoft and benchmark. >> we were talking with kate in the last hour or two about how important this is and how big a priority it is for some very large caps >> this is actually huge, because the topic of security is so essential for many companies.

but there are so many different facets in it you can talk about hacking like we just did. but also talk about data privacy, for example how do you make sure your data is not seen by people you don't want to see it so that's a whole different sub-trend within security. so the other thing i would mention is end point security. it's not only securing the data on premises. but in the cloud it's securing all the different end points even a light switch or a end point that could be breached it's not to hack into all the different things but to identify the attack surface and make sure you're addressing all the end points at the same time. >> it seems like a big opportunity. solving data breaches, data privacy concerns yet we only had one or two companies from the cybersecurity space go public this year. crowd strike one of the outperformers this year. we'll see what happens next year, if that changes. >> yeah. i think there is definitely a lot of private opportunities in the cybersecurity space. there's also a lot of publicly

traded companies already trading. and the interesting thing is some of the older legacy companies are not what's needed for the future so along with a company like crowd strike, you have a pretty decent crop of end point security companies, of data governments, data access management so there's actually quite a lot to do. you do have to go down the market cap and look at that mid-space to find those opportunities. >> our thanks to kate rooney for that piece thanks so much. just over 20 minutes until "the closing bell. here's where we stand. s&p up 32 and change up next, your last chance trade. >> plus today is a busy day for holiday returns. coming up, we'll look at how e-commerce has changed the game for shoppers "closing bell" is back after this apple card. is a new kind of credit card, created by apple, so it's simple and transparent with a new level of privacy and security.

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100 laggards insight and seattle genetics with less than 20 minutes left to go, anastasia, what is your last chance trade i'm looking at this extra performance today. looks like health care is at the bottom of the list i think it's the top trade into 2020 the reason being is this is again the time tochase performance and to look at the underperforming sectors. headache is definitely at that list but at the same time, a lot of the concerns around medicare for all and drug pricing is reflected in it. trading at a 20% discount. consistent with where it has traded and at the same time we don't think medicare for all gets done we don't think anything really gets done on the drug pricing front. this is a sector delivering 9% earnings growth with consistency. and we think that could accelerate there's a lot of reasons to like health care. and being that we are in a pretty constructive environment,

i think you can look further into biotech specifically. jpmorgan has the conference coming up in the middle of january. and seasonally, biotech tends to perform pretty well into that conference. >> don't you think the range of possible policy outcomes is wider going into this election than in prior cyclings and doesn't that mean more tail risk for sectors like this >> absolutely it does. we have a lot of candidates proposing a lot of different things however, if you looked at the performance of health care, you know, first around the april time frame of this year, you had a big debate around the medicare for all. and because of that, the manage care company valuations have suffered tremendously. that to an extent is already in the price, the worst case scenario you know, the other leg down for health care happened around pharmaceuticals. around august triem or so. we think a lot of that is already reflected.

the actual ability to get something done, something like medicare for all, we think is a low probability event. >> even if elizabeth warren gets elected. because goldman sachs had a look at this chart of her rise in the polls and the underperformance in biotech >> absolutely. if elizabeth warren were to get elected, she would also have to have a full sweep of the house and senate but we have to invest in what we think is the most probable and i think that's probably not it >> certainly those names have come way off the lows. when we come back, we'll take you inside the market zone uninterrupted coverage when "closing bell" comes back.

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just over ten minutes left in the trading day now in "the closing bell" market zone commercial free coverage of all the action going into the close. >> mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. we also have anastasia amaroso here as well let's kick things off with apple and its role in leading the nasdaq to 9,000. josh lipton has that story for us >> so, seema, since the nasdaq crossed 8,000 for the first time in august 27, 2018, apple surged more than 30%. the nasdaq is of course market cap weighted so apple has certainly helped power that index higher

as has microsoft, by the way, though which is up 45% over that same time period. but 2019 is shaping up to be a remarkable one for apple investors. apple now up more than 80% that means it's on pace for its best year since 2009 put another way, it has added about $533 billion now in market cap. guys, back to you. >> josh, thank you mike, your quick take on apple does it suggest this unrelentless move to the upside that there is really a shortage of companies here? >> i think there's a shortage of reliable enormous profit streams. at least the market perceives there to be a shortage there i mean, if it's amazing considering the low that apple was at the very first days of this year, it was trading at below 11 times expected earnings now it's above 21 times expected earnings it has gone from being kind of a high quality cheap stock to a high quality stock trading at a substantial premium.

i don't know how much higher that valuation can go given we've not had much of an earnings growth story. >> are you taken aback by the range of pe ez this year >> on a number of tech i would say. it was a big recovery year for a lot of big tech. for apple specifically with prices back in 2018, was a challenge in the chinese market. 2019 has been a year of a reversal remember next year the 5g phone will become a reality. they will be benefitting from the renewed consumer interest using the new 5g capabilities. >> obviously one of the big stories and dynamics that will affect apple in the coming year. with about ten minutes left until the close the day after christmas means that shoppers are rushing to malls to make their returns. our friend frank holland has been watching unbelievable number there is. >> amazon, walmart, best buy, and target are expected to see their returns increase by 30% this holiday season.

as overall holiday returns are expected to reach a record of $95 billion. nearly half of those, about 46% coming from online sales women's clothing, appliances, and toys will be the most returned items a new survey found 30% of online purchases will be returned compared to 9% of brick and mortar buys. u.p.s. says the busiest day for return will be january 2nd when 1.9 million packages will be sent back. that's a 26% increase over just last year. and according to bstock.com, online returns are expected to increase next holiday season by 15% or more. back over to you >> so it's interesting about the returns. because this is a pretty big logistical nightmare for a lot of companies and the fact you can't really process a lot of these returns you have to ship that back to the warehouse. we were talking earlier about how do you position in this e-commerce world

you need more warehousing space. we're seeing that in action this holiday season >> fedex could use some return volume >> i was going to say. for all the promise of digital shopping to reduce friction. this is not undoing all the convenience and everything else. but there's not a free lunch in terms of you don't have inventory, aren't marking things down on the floor. >> those comments from ceo of fedex last week, really concerning he talked about struggling germany. europe is seeing a broader slowdown compare that to what nike said the strength of the consumer, consumers spending manufacture very different markets it speaks to the consumers i believe that is the -- it's

all about the last mile. how can dwrou get that directly to the consumer? that may be something for somebody like fedex. >> the hotels. let's take a look. more millennials climbing the corporate ladder and hotels are now launching a new -- this new brand will include lively restaurant and bar scene launching different hotel brands used by hotel operators to tend to different clientele also a way to build more properties remember, hilton and marriott, they used the asset light model and collect franchising fees from owners. therefore, the more brands, the more opportunities to drive sales. the challenge here is by bringing on a new brand and with so many coming to market, that it could potentially confuse their loyal customer that's a bigger concern for marriott which has about 30 brands compared to hilton's 17 >> whatever happened to

synergies? this is all new markets and new stationary, new signs. >> i know. and i wonder what it says just about -- i mean, the rewards programs were kind of a selling point of putting a lot of these companies together then the world of airbnb, maybe it's not -- you're not really loyal to a chain, right? as much as you used to be. >> it's a great point. you speak to the ceos of both these companies. of marriott or hilton, they both tell you they will never let go of one of those brands even if they're underperforming like a sheraton. they want to hold on to as many as they can. the developers need them >> fascinating boeing's under pressure again today after new documents reviewed by a congressional panel revealed what one staffer calls very disturbing revelations surrounding the max. boeing confirming they did provide these to congress and to the faa themselves saying the tone and content of some of these communications does not reflect the company we are and need to be the move highlights dave calhoun's goal to ease friction with regulators investigating the max crisis

with this one statistic saying boeing's done some internal polling. 40% say they would be unwilling to get back on the max >> i thought that was striking a poll finding, actually i thought conventional wisdom was people don't pay that much attention. but i guess a year into this, it's just kind of become much more common place to think about. >> it'll be interesting to see how the ceo deals with this challenge. it is a significant challenge. it's not just the aircraft, that it's been grounded but all of it, the backlog for several years out. it will be interesting to watch. >> big story for the year. currently the worst performer on the dow. five minutes will effort in trade. ceo of cineworld accusing netflix's "irishman" from not being a release.

>> instead to market its streaming service. the ceo of movie theater chain cineworld doesn't like it. saying, quote, it lost a lot of box office a scorsese film would have generated a nice income. this all speaks to the standoff with theater chains. netflix has released ten movies in theaters since september. none in wide release because netflix won't wait three months that's the typical window before it starts streaming the films on its service at home guys >> going to be fascinating we talk a lot about skor scorsef camera he went there for some reason. whether it's creative freedom or budget or what have you. >> yeah. i think the same psychological that prevented a major studio for giving him the budget to have this movie for a traditiontradition al release, that allowed netflix

more so than what would the -- 40 or 50 million including netflix knew they were foregoing some revenue >> brave new world when it comes to media and film. thank you. mike got got new information on internals today. >> it's still been this gentle positive trend if you look at advancers and decliners. it's not overwhelmingly a buying stampe stampede real lopsided for new highs versus new lows. that's calendar effect we were obviously at the depths 12 months ago. not a lot of stocks making the new low before that. here you go. 184 to 140 on that front then also a little bit of a new participant in the upside rush is gold and silver a lot of technicians saying this might have some momentum behind it it's sort of an aspect of this kind of everything rally that we've been seeing. i heen, crude oil has traded firm copper is up

>> doesn't this challenge the premise that, you know, investors aren't worried about geopolitics or a slowdown in china's economy. >> or it's just a high liquidity, dollar is off its highs and we're kind of buying assets of every type but yeah it's not a clear signal as far as i can tell. >> three minutes left in trade stocks are at session highs. let's send it over to rick santelli for a check on bonds. >> hi and thank you. that was 32 billion of those left the treasury last auction of the year. you can see there's a drift in treasuries but what you see there is we can't quite get through this mid-190s pay attention to that. finally three-month spread it's unchanged on the year looks like a recession is not in sight. frank holland, today's lows in the nasdaq are 11 points higher

than tuesday's highs big session. >> hey there a tenth record close at least on pace for today as it crosses the 9,000 mark after impressive holiday sales other faang names trading higher with the exception of netflix. that's down about a third of a percent. the russell 2000 also hit its highest level in a year. the chip and stocks that powered it trading lower today broadcom having the biggest negative impact. but it is low volume trading now over to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> it's low volume trading, frank, but we've got a little buy program that's been coming through in the last 20 minutes pushing the markets to new highs. the leaders down here. moving through, we've seen some of the industrial names and technologies caterpillar, for example, in the last 15 or 20 minutes. a little move up there, that

pushes up nicely caterpillar also consumer staples names have moved up. i say it's kind of a broad little push in the last 15 to 20 there's coca-cola. nice little move highs for the day. there's the closing bell not just the nasdaq composite at a new high the new york stock exchange composite also at a new high the dow breaking through 100 points s&p 3239 and welcome to "closing bell." i'm carl quintanilla in for wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody in for sara eisen. along with mike san totoli >> you're approaching now some levels that were very aggressive year end targets by a long shot. nasdaq, of course, and the russell 2000 the only one today not coming to play >> yeah. 3240 for the s&p 500

joining us to talk about the markets today, anastasia amaroso from jpmorgan private bank also along with chief investment officer of market officers the santa claus rally the last week of trade continues. >> it does continue. we've checked off a lot of risks from our checklist this year and the market just continues to melt up. again, next year we're looking for better data. remember the other thing that happened this year is 23 central banks. caught rates i think we'll start to convincingly see that in the first quarter. and the market, prepositioning for this you don't want to come in on january 2nd and try to buy everything so i think a lot of hedge funds have been trying to get ahead of that >> mike, are we seeing indiscriminate buying yet? >> today the close is a sign that nobody wants to be caught with cash. and if you want to have things settle out by the end of the

calendar year, you're probably doing your buying today or tomorrow it makes sense, i think, you'd have the persistence to this point. if a year ago it was the market had this big panic attack about a possible recession and bond yields were rallying going lower. and therefore you can buy it because if you don't get a recession, you have this huge revival trait. that's what we got starting a year ago that would make now year end 2017 where it feels like everyone gets an all clear. we got thetrade deal people were worried. i do wonder if we're perhaps on watch for this to become a little more overheated opposed to, you know, being something that carries on at this pace. >> yeah. i think we should be on watch for this to become overheated. as i mentioned, a lot of the ctas and hedge funded a vesters, a lot are not.

i think what would happen next year is that data starts to improve convincingly vuk a lot of that retail investor flow go into the equity markets. that's what supports it. also i would say, look it feels like a meaningful self-rally but certainly when you look at what typically happens in the markets after the fed cuts rates, the s&p rallies by 14% on average over the subsequent 12 months we're just about halfway through that a little bit more than that. so it stands to reason that somewhere around 6% upside at 2020 should be consistent with historical averages. >> although that makes sense, people trying to justify the three rate cuts. said it was just unwinding policy errors from before. why is the market so much higher than from the time of those initial policy errors? >> well, i -- look i don't think it was just the cuts that did it you had a dramatic evaporation of uncertainty in the market over the last 90 days. it wasn't just the fed

we got a reduction in the concern about china/u.s. trade policy we have no major legislation on tap. we have no major fed moves expected next year we're getting resolution on brexit and we're getting a saucering out on some of these global pmis. i think it's an all clear signal that the markets are going to continue to rally. >> what about this idea that the phase one deal has yet to be signed and even if it does get signed, it doesn't really touch on some of the major points of contention between the united states and china like ip theft and cybersecurity. >> yeah. you know, markets aren't looking for total resolution once we have total resolution, then the move is over. it's all about direction and the direction on u.s. is improvement. so if you have improvement, you can get that flow. if it starts to move back the other way, sure, you can get a bit of a pullback. right now there's no major element of uncertainty baked into the equity markets. >> you think the u.s./china relationship improves in 2020?

president trump pretty much needs it ahead of the election >> i think it does early on in q1 remember, the president does need to deliver for the soybean farmers, for the auto manufacturers and so forth and u.s. and china trade deals certainly moves us in that direction. this is pretty interesting we haven't talked a lot about the chinese markets lately, but chinese markets arguably have been hit the most. most adversely by the u.s./china trade tensions if we do have improving manufacturing numbers, better trade volumes, then the market should respond to that i think that's the other catch that investors should be looking at u.s. tech has rallied 50% this year but the chinese tech has not kept up pace and in fact, since middle of 2018, trailing by about 25 percentage points. so i think china tech is something to look at >> it's been a banner year for equities of course according to deutsche bank, global stock markets have added

more than $17 trillion in total value this year. a record high. the total value of global equities now has surpassed $85 trillion herb, as we await confirmation from either q4 earnings or the text of phase one. how long do we have before the market runs out of patience? because it's not all data that runs linear like this. >> you're right. it doesn't run linear. when we're talking to next december, we're looking at a good bit for equities. i see it playing out like this look, the s&p is likely to earn $165 to 170 bucks a share this year we're looking at 180 next year that's an 18 multiple. we're about to go into q4 earnings companies will beat and then they'll do what they always do which is guide us lower on that conference call. then we'll have a lot of headlines about the earnings estimate and despite a great economy, we're going to all be worried about earnings and an earnings

recession that i think will not materialize this year. so we can get past those worries, maybe a 6% to 8% correction then we go strong into the election >> so a reasonable s&p earnings number next year for you is, what 178? >> i'd put it at 180 to 185 next year >> not bad >> i think one of the things you can actually take a little bit of comfort in is that the formal target for this market as the street comes out with that are modest here. it shows you that it doesn't give a lot of upside if you want to play it straight. but if you get more of a momentum move depending on the composition. the aggregate multiple won't hold you back. you get to 20 times earnings it's not unusual >> stay right here let's get back to bob pisani he has a look at the top performing sectors over the past

decade and if they will continue to dominate >> history indicates they will not, seema thanks i just want to show you growth at all people wanted in 2010 to 2020, 2019 take a look. technology up more than 300% we also had good moves up. the only sector that had no growth at all, energy stocks 0% growth. okay should you buy tech and sell energy continuing into 2020? history is any guide, probably not. we had this thing called mean reversion that is very well studied in the stock market. it's the tendency for most investments to revert to long-term averages look here. the top three sectors from 2000 to 2009, energy and consumer staples and materials. they were only up 80% in the following decade they underperformed the rest of the market the bottom three sectors from 2000 to 2009 which were communications services and technology financials, they did great in this decade as a group they were up 184% the bottom line is this.

the companies that tend to do really well far long time, people keep buying them and the bubbles burst. also they tend to get a little bit better over time and folks that is what mean reversion is all about good lesson for the market >> it certainly is a continuation of the conversation we were having, do you stick we the winners or start looking at some of the sectors that lagged over the last ten years like energy >> the thing is tech was the only game in town for the bulk of the last 18 months because that was one space you were going to find reliable secular growth but energy, for example, should do better as oil prices are supported by higher global demand, by a little bit less drilling i think it's a bit of trade with correlations picking up across other sectors. i think you can start looking at

cyclicals over defenses. certainly energy fits into that framework. >> all right we'll leave the conversation there. thank you for joining us, anastasia amaroso and phil morgan joining us nt,ex gerald storch "closing bell" is back in 90 seconds. but at fidelity, value is more than just talk. we offer commission-free online u.s. stock and etf trades. and, when you open a new fidelity brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate -- that's 21 times more than schwab's. plus, fidelity's leading price improvement on trades saved investors hundreds of millions of dollars last year. that's why fidelity continues to lead the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk fidelity.

despite such few holiday shopping days this year,

spending grew 3.4% according to mastercard while online sales hit record highs growing nearly 19% over last year. joining us for more is gerry storch pleasure to have you on the show today. we tend to fixate on amazon, its leadership in the e-commerce space. but which retailers do you think did a successful job at marrying the digital and in-store experience this year >> okay. well, clearly amazon was a huge winner but we put that aside. there's a growing gulf between the winners and the losers retailers. it's like two continents drifting apart so on the winning side, we had companies that offered great value and mastered the internet. people like target, walmart, and costco they're doing very, very well. there are others who just offer unbelievable values and people shop them a lot like tj maxx, for example, or dollar general then you have best buy who kind of stands alone as a strong,

dedicated category killer. they're doing very well in electronics. on the other side, we have the losers and those are people like department stores, apparel stores in the mall they're still functioning with last century's business models and they're not making the fundamental changes they need to make they think they are, but they're not changing enough. so i don't think most of them are going to make it through this coming decade >> what are those fundamental changes? what do you think those fundamental changes are, gerry >> well, their business models don't work so they have to re-explore what they're doing. what they think they can do is merchandise their way to success. people don't want what they're offering anymore you can get apparel from lots of places they're buying it at target. that's one of the winners. they're buying it at tj maxx and amazon so they need to change in a this way purchase the product, sell it maybe they don't need to take possession of it at all. they need it to be more of a marketplace. then think about the merger in a

different way from what they're doing. it's clear what they're doing right now is just tinkering around the edges it may have worked for their predecessors to hustle harder, but it's not going to work for them they're not going to be around in ten years >> we've been hearing about the losers going bye-bye for a long time now if the debt markets remain this liquid, they could continue to be zombie retailers for years to come >> it dpepds is sears still here? i don't think so so they're basically gone. many of these other retailers like macy's as an example, i don't want to pick on them they're well run but they're a great example of what i'm talking about with a last century business model that won't make it therough the next decade as they shrink, they become less relevant you have companies like tj maxx that are growing you know, their market cap is more than the entire department

store sector when i say going away, it doesn't matter as a business matter whether they're bankrupt and you can see a few zombie locations or whether they're just irrelevant and they're increasingly just plain irrelevant >> yeah. we've seen a study increase in store closures about 9300 so far this year according to core sight research it brings up an interesting point about real estate and department stores you were saying they really fail to reinvest their business model this year. to figure out weather and how much real estate they want to own. >> look. you know, we have 24 square feet of retail space per capita in the u.s. that's 50% more than the next country which is canada. and it's six to eight times as much as each european country. so we're so grossly overstored that the reality is at least half of the space we have devoted to retail shouldn't retail anymore at all.

it needs to become something else sometimes a greater value. sometimes frankly it's doctor's offices or insurance offices it has to go away. meanwhile, retailers say i have this real estate value, i'll capture that the problem is you can't do both you've got to decide real estate company or retailer. real estate company, it's liquidation, folks because when you start selling off the real estate and then paying rent on what you just sold off to keep operating as a retail company, you can't afford the rent and company after company just accelerate that way. either you're a real estate company or retailer. you can't be both. they're one or the other not both if companies have real estate that's so darn valuable then that's what should happen. remember century 21? you know, they were -- i'm sorry. not century 21 but there was -- mental block here but a great company in new york here that was a great real estate company they sold off. century 21 still exists, folks anyway --

>> another way to look at that is simon property, the mall read it's done 20% this year. excuse me 13% this year. we're going to leave the conversation there, though, gerry. last word. >> they have a lot of great malls. they're still going to be around forever. i wouldn't hit them. it's the "b" players and the "c" players in the malls that aren't going to make it >> thanks for joining us >> my pleasure coming up, the nasdaq crossed 9,000 for the first time ever today still tech has had a rough year feeling the heat from regulators and critics alike. what could lie ahead in 2020 we're going to discuss that. >> plus look at the top nasdaq stocks of the decade netflix delivering a nearly 4,000% return. "closing bell" will return soon. time to toast the decade with this. dominos. the largest pizza delivery chain in the u.s. is one of the best performing stocks of the last ten years. the stock is approaching $300

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let's get back to santoli. >> the charitable campaign gets attention this time of the year. investing in the so-called dogs of the dow traditionally, this has meant investing in the highest yielding dividend yielding stocks in the dow at the end of a calendar year betting on basically a mean reversion trade to the upside. kind of using that as a proxy for out of favor and relatively inexpensive stocks if you looked at the highest yield so far, these are the four dow stocks above a 4% dividend yield. these are deep underperformers

dow became a separate independent company. that's why you don't have a year to date return on there. you're talking about either dirty, boring, or disrupted type businesses the next for a little bit more of a diverse group if you look at basically numbers five through eight. if you wanted to get the top eight yield. still every one of them a bad underperformer and you have obviously energy has been bad big pharma has not been the place that health care has done very good. a comeback story or restructuring. and then of course walgreens the worst performer in the dow kind of a spotty record for this strategy in recent years used to be more reliability. just because dividend yield isn't a proxy for value anymore. >> used to be. >> very interesting. mike, thank you. up next, tech under fire but stock prices are red hot tech came under major scrutiny this year, but it was also the best performing sector with the nasdaq near 9,000. what could lie ahead f yorour favorite faang names in 2020 when "closing bell" comes back ♪

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while tech stocks have performed well this year, they've also come under increasing fire from regulators. so what should investors expect in 2020? elan nooyi has that story. >> there's a reason they've been beefing up lobbying shops in washington they've been on the defense

inside the beltway big tech was a big target on both sides of the political aisle this year. and the scrutiny will only grow as the 2020 elections get closer watch out for a capitol hill crackdown. the house will wrap up its antitrust investigation next year democrats still want the top tech ceos to testify and a source tells me they're working on new legislation to ban megamergers. over in the senate, republicans are trying to build support for a federal privacy law. and both parties are raising red flags over chinese companies like huawei and tiktok the federal trade commission and justice department will try to focus their antitrust investigations into facebook and google texas and new york are leading states in building their own cases against the companies. and california's strict new privacy law goes into effect but the most heated rhetoric could come from the campaign

trail where big tech faces an election year test facebook in particular is feeling the heat over political ads and deep fakes but all are under pressure to prove their safe from hacking and disinformation they need to show they learned a lesson from the last election. guys, facebook did set up an election year war room during the midterms back in 2018. i would expect to see more of that before november 2020. >> no doubt about that stay with us let's bring in mark burnevich. >> thank you for having me >> you've spoken out about facebook in particular do you feel like regular constituencies especially congress are coming around to your point of view >> well, let me ask you this we -- washington, d.c. is a place where good ideas go to die, correct it's a place there's a lot of smoke and not a lot of fire. so the fact they're talking

about this issue i think it's important and it shows you that these political professionals care about the issue but i quite frankly don't have a lot of faith they're actually going to get something done. because everything is so dysfunctional in washington, d.c. that's why it's become incumbent on myself and my colleagues, a bipartisan coalition to do something that congress won't do or that the federal government appears incapable or unwilling to do. and that's address a big tech -- >> i have to imagine that even you have to give facebook and zuckerberg some credit for their ability to manage this krouf got zuckerberg with the president in the oval office he goes to the hill and things seem to quiet down after that. engagement has not been a problem nor has the stock. where is the urgency going to come from? >> well, i think it's coming from the states. because we -- when we're dealing with the citizens of our states, whether it's issues concerning data breaches, the fact that big tech companies whether it's google or facebook are collecting all this information.

they're buying it, selling, trading it it's something that should worry every american it's the dignity each of us have in our own private information and often they're being violated and no one seems to care about it except the state ags at this point. >> although, you know, this has -- this whole industry has grown up in the absence of specific prohibitions against what these companies are doing and i'm wondering what the states can do are you going after these companies that have been engaged in these practices for some time. >> the federal government didn't create the states. when it comes to things like consumer protection, that's the bread and butter of most state attorneys generals offices secondly it's important to put this in context. companies like google now are

controlling 60% of our searches. when at&t was broken up and led to all these innovation for consumers, they controlled just over 80% of the market and so what we've seen is this concentration of wealth and power and a few companies. and what history has taught us is when you have that much concentration and wealth and power, they have the ability to undermine democracy. don't just take my word for it >> mark, this is ylan in d.c i had a question for mark which is, you know, the investigation into google started with digital advertising. it's reportedly expanded into its search practices, into its android business can you give us updates on the scope of that investigation and where you guys are headed? >> i guess i would say stay tuned. i think that, you know, there's been news reports about a broad coalition of both democrat and republican ags including even attorney general barr taking a serious look at some of the practices of google.

and what's going on. i do think that there are a lot of things that google has done and other big tech companies have done that i think that really raise a lot of questions about our privacy, our information. what's being done to protect it. are people really having a realistic way to of out of all this collection of data? what's been done with it we as consumers and we as ags have an absolute right to look at issues that with advertising and how they're manipulating results seeing what really comes up or are you see whag paid advertisers are forcing to come up and so there are all sorts of secondary issues but i will tell you, it's not often you get such a broad coalition of both republican and democratic ags together deciding something needs to be done going to the top of the show, when you mentioned the fact that people in congress both republicans and democrats are

saying something needs to be done i think that is a strong indication that something will happen and maybe most importantly, i don't have a lot of confidence of washington, d.c anything getting done there. i will tell you this though. when you get a group of ags together that's a lot of power and that's a lot of ability to hold people accountable. >> it's a talking point, though, that you made a couple times now here on cnbc that your concerns are falling on deaf ears in washington do you think that changes if we get a democrat in the white house? and have you already had conversations with some of the candidates like senator warren who has called for a breakup in big tech >> no. the short answer is i haven't had any conversations with any politicians in washington, d.c and i think like a lot of change and innovation, it's going to start with the states. when you look at big tobacco, other issues, those are things the state ags were on the forefront of you're seeing that now even with a lot of litigation even during the obama administration the action was at the state

attorneys general office and so i think the ags are going to have to lead on this issue. because there's so much, you know, politics in washington, d.c. that both republicans and democrats can't get anything done it's sad i'll tell you what whether it's health care or border security, none of these issues are being addressed by washington politicians would rather talk about it and raise money than get something done it's going to be left to the ags to get something done with it. >> you're one of eight ags leading the probe into google's practices so keep us updated on what you learn and what the company tells you. >> have a safe new year. thank you very much. >> thank you for joining us. and ylan, thank you for bringing the story. time for a cnbc news update with bill griffith >> here's what's happening this hour the air and ground search continues in switzerland after an avalanche was near the town of andamaat. they've described that avalanche

one of considerable size the winter storm in southern california has created icy roads in the san diego mountains nearly 8 inches of snow fell in that area. the conditions also played a role in several spinouts and crashes creating massive delays. a driver for amazon was arrested in florida after being caught on this video allegedly stealing a package that he was supposed to deliver. surveillance video shows jose campos walking up to the front door of a home, putting the package down, taking the confirmation photo, then picking the package back up and taking it back to his truck authorities say that amazon has not been cooperative in their investigation. they say they would not help track down the driver unless a subpoena is served finally, happy national thank you note day in today's high-tech world, etiquette officials say they agree that writing and sending thank you notes goes a long way to teaching children gratitude now, i don't know if in our

high-tech world that includes email and certainly verbally, but let me just say, carl, seema, michael, thank you. thank you very much. no, thank you. >> no, thank you >> no, no. thank you. >> bill, we'll see you in a bit. when we come back, fleeing california what it means for the overall economy. >> plus the products that defined a decade it's not just the echo or the ipad that rundown is coming here on "the closing bell. i've always loved seeing what's next. and i'm still going for my best, even though i live with a higher risk of stroke due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem. so if there's a better treatment than warfarin, i'll go for that. eliquis. eliquis is proven to reduce stroke risk better than warfarin. plus has significantly less major bleeding than warfarin. eliquis is fda-approved and has both. what's next?

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the big board. averages closing at record highs as the dow snuck under the gate at the last minute nasdaq hit 9,000 for the first time and then that third row, the laggards on the nasdaq 100 insight, liberty, global plot, and seattle genetics california the nation's largest economy is in danger of losing a generation of wage earnings jane wells has that story. >> hi, seema

yeah here's -- the numbers don't lie. the census shows more people are leaving california than coming here irs tax filings are down california's population has grown that's because people here are still having babies. it's growing at the slowest pace on record. and we should have cracked 40 million by now and we haven't if terms of population. who's leaving? young professionals. some making six figures like the family who owned their own small business in l.a., sold it all, and moved to nashville >> it became harder and harder to put money away for our future and to know that we would have money for the kids' college and all of that. >> check this out. in l.a. they owned this 3100 square foot home on a postage stamp lot. in nashville, they have a larger home on a larger property and their property taxes are down by more than half >> and this has an impact on the u.s. economy this continued migration out of

california continues, jane >> it really does. because as people move here, certainly they're moving to your state and could drive up real estate prices. you're welcome but the big issue -- the concern for california is that we are, i'm sorry, the innovation capital of the country people come from all over the world to california to create. and if that becomes untenable for more and more people to then think i'm going to do that in ohio, no offense ohio but it's going to be harder to do that. >> i've seen prices go up in my hometown in oregon thank you for joining us up next, where does the trade agenda lead in 2020? are the days of tariff headlines moving the market behind us? or will they ramp up as we approach the election? that's next. on business every 39 seconds. ouch. i don't even want to think about it. comcast business has a solution. we go beyond fast with a cloud-based security system

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and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today. trade has been a center piece of the trump presidency. but the impeachment proceedings have left question marks about the president's agenda in 2020 eamon javers has a look at what to expect. >> it's either the beginning of the end of the trump presidency or the end of the beginning as the president ramps up his re-election campaign here are three things to watch in 2020. first, the president survives impeachment. conventional wisdom says an impeachment vote in the house

will be followed by an acquittal in the senate meaning the president stays in office for all of 2020. but just about everything about the trump era has been wildly unpredictable. so watch this space. second, legislative letdown. he began his first term with promises to repeal obamacare which he failed. but there's not much left on the legislative agenda and democrats aren't likely to pass a lot of the president's priorities in an election year so don't count on a lot of bill signings here. third, it's all about that base. the president will campaign the same we he governs and the same way he won in 2016 with a laser focus on his base. for a chief executive who never topped 46% in approval ratings, that means he knows he needs every voter he had last time and he doesn't have much chance of converting those he didn't have. that means we'll see an emotional and dramatic election year

>> eamon, thanks another key sticking point for the white house is trade with china. will there be a phase two deal in 2020? let's bring in a senior fellow at peterson institute. thanks for your time today good to see you. >> my pleasure >> "times" had a piece out midday today arguing that navarro argued against phase one. president obviously didn't listen i wonder if you think that means the president will be committed to making sure phase one happens and sticks >> well, i think he was certainly making a concerted try. he wants to have as much wind in his back going into the election and a seasfire with china on the trade war is one way to get there. well implements this the best we can hope for and i think we shouldn't be too certain. there's a lot to go on in the

implementation >> president is on record saying the negotiations over phase two will happen immediately. that they're going to start really in the new year i wonder how sincerely you think he means that. if, in fact, that's something they're going to work toward >> they have an interest in telling markets that, you know, negotiations are ongoing we're looking forward to a fruitful conclusion. but in reality, they have punted on all the tough issues. there's not much in phase one as far as we can tell about ipr, chinese subsidies. we're nowhere near a solution to anything that related to the huawei set of issues and i frankly don't see this administration being in a position to reach an agreement with china on any of these things any time soon >> so you think these larger issues that are not addressed in phase one like intellectual property and technology transfer could actually stop both the u.s. and the chinese from moving forward with phase two

could it possibly break apart phase one as well? >> we need to see what phase one actually holds and, you know, how much is china actually committed to buying on agricultural goods what are the specific tariff lines that trump may or may not be committed to rolling back there's a lot of implementation risk here. because ultimately this is a very small deal and not one that really is what president trump would have wanted when he started this trade war in my opinion well over a year ago >> missing from these conversations is huawei. what do you think happens there? >> well, i mean, we still have a senior executive in house arrest in canada. we have now, you know, lots of news stories about huawei benefitting from a lot of public support from the chinese government in terms of financing and loans and things like that we have a beginning of a shift

in government positions in europe against huawei. and i think that has a lot to do with the crackdown in hong kong. which i think has reminded european governments that, you know, we are after all dealing with an authoritarian dictatorship here. and therefore we may want to act with caution with regards to letting them roll out or large parts of the rollout of 5g in europe but i don't fundamentally see this as an issue that is going to be solved in the coming year because there are people in the administration, you mentioned peter navarro and others, that are interested in decoupling from china that are interested in trying to isolate companies like huawei from being able to sell their products in the united states and many u.s. allies >> finally, more broadly, these b tariffs on brazilian steel, obviously that's expired

we got phase one in the ka k at least on paper, we think it just seems like the white house has gone net dovish on trade. it's hard to imagine how that's going to reverse at least before the election >> i agree with that fundamentally, if you're europeans and you're worried about car tariffs or some further escalation from the white house, i think you're breathing a sigh of relief absolutely in my opinion, the white house have put election fears, you know, wanted to calm down markets as much as possible, you know, in the front seat here. so that's what we're seeing. and we will see what his democratic opponent will do to the trump agenda in -- during the election campaign. quite frankly, he hasn't much to show for his trade war with china to date. >> it's a good point jacob, we appreciate you joining us today coming up, you've heard of the businesses disrupted by amazon, but what about the industries getting a big boost

by amazon? one example coming up on "the closing bell." and speaking of amazon, take a look at the nasdaq's historic climb to 9,000 from 325 in 1990. hitting 5,000 during the dotcom bubble the.com bubble to touch 9,000 today. what a run we'll be right back. looks like you're all set for that business trip. you've got your smartphone, laptop, your other smartphone... woman: is this all the devices you have? your tablet... seriously? smartwatch, your backup tablet, and... woman: anything else in your bag? ...whatever that is. (beeping) this isn't working. introducing samsung mobile workspace solutions. with the galaxy note10 with dex software, you can run your entire business on the one device that does it all. samsung business solutions. on the one device that does it all. this piece is talking yeah?. so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity.

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santoli has the final dsh poured of the day. >> i do, carl. we've been talking about the intense one-way run for the market probably looking at indicators whether we might get post holiday payback. this one making the rounds, this chart, medsing skew in the options market this goes up when there is outsized demand for deep out of the money put protection people pricing in the possibility of some kind of cash-like or deep correction happening. really it's a relationship between people worried about near-term minor volatility or longer term deep are volatility. the last time we saw the levels up at the level here

was summer of 2018 that being said, we have seen the spikes before like here where it really didn't mean anything didn't signify a lot of anything you could fake in as a potentially contrarian indicate they're basically even with the rally some people think there is a black swan out there taking down the market or maybe it's just that things are so calm right now nobody is willing to bet that things move too much very soon. at least until next year dy want to point it out because it seems that everybody is buying into the idea the market runs higher through year en. but some folks finding reasons to bid up the insurance. >> it's always hard to know np the "journal" did the piece on the bridge water protection efforts. and it's impossible to put in context without the portfolio. >> especially when you want to lose money on the hedge. it doesn't necessarily mean people smarpt are betting big something nasty happens. >> mike with the skew index. thank you. e > up next wall street buzz, thtop things investors are

talking about today when "closing bell" comes back. ♪ ♪

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♪ i can't feel my face when i'm with you ♪ >> now to the buzz on wall street the cargo van is having its moment the "wall street journal" reporting that sales of advance used to transport packages fueled by amazon package delivery network executives expect sales of no frills vans to outpace the auto market in the coming years. a return yeerps in the making on march 20142008 one financial adviser bought bear stearns at 230. it took until this month 4209 days later for him to break even. >> amazing. >> and consumer reports without with a list of influential products of the past decade. topping the list for tech. echo, air pod, beyond burger and impossible burger made the cut unthe food and health section.

surprising appearancing, the casper mattress, thigh pods. and trader joes. >> somebody on twitter asking did anybody get a peloton for christmas. >> except for the girlfriend and the peloton guy? exactly it's a good question the stock didn't act as if many did anyway. >> we're remaining in a relative news vacuum into next week but friday fomc minutes next week and then the pmis come together in terms of matching the multiple expansion with the data. >> basically time to see if the market had it right in terms of candy kapping this big cyclical christopher and the global indexes and the rest of it that's where we are in terms of looking ahead. and also flows, just the idea the market is relentlessly high are and is it creating a chase aspect keep talking about 2007 the s&p up 7% in three weeks in the first several weeks of 2008 can't bank on that

but that's the dahm when people rush in. >> wonder if that pullback comes. but perhaps early 2020 at this point. >> it looks like at this point for something after the first of the year in terms of substance. >> almost the inverse of last does incredible we'll see what friday brings that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. yes, it does we are live as always from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times acquire. and this is "fast money" i'm brian sullivan in for melissa once again your traders on this record setting boxes day edition tim seymour, dan nathan-on and two peshl guests process gina sanchez and victoria fernandez tonight on fast, amazon, amazing. we find out what is behind the post holiday surge but tim, a fast pitch on the housing related name why he thinks this stock will nail if in the new year. >> got it. >>en a return to sende