rush in. >> wonder if that pullback comes. but perhaps early 2020 at this point. >> it looks like at this point for something after the first of the year in terms of substance. >> almost the inverse of last does incredible we'll see what friday brings that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. yes, it does we are live as always from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times acquire. and this is "fast money" i'm brian sullivan in for melissa once again your traders on this record setting boxes day edition tim seymour, dan nathan-on and two peshl guests process gina sanchez and victoria fernandez tonight on fast, amazon, amazing. we find out what is behind the post holiday surge but tim, a fast pitch on the housing related name why he thinks this stock will nail if in the new year. >> got it. >>en a return to sender later

on you may have returned the ugly christmas sweater you got from your brother-in-law you don't like but what if you could turn the ugly stock you would own the desk gives the names we will start with the non-stop on wall street the nasdaq hitting a milestone, crossing above 9,000 the first time ever. records keep falling stocks keep climbing and fundamentals, tim serial don't seem to matter much. >> they don't. you can find an argument for valueses within megacap tech if you look at intel, sysco you can't make the argument with apple anymore. the interesting thing about the triple qs or the etf for the nasdaq 10 oh or lack at the nasdaq 100 we know that apple dominates this index and this is apple -- pick whatever point in the road you want in 2019, it's 70% from june, it's 50% from august, 50% for apple from august. and that's -- that's how you get to a nasdaq at all-time highs.

microsoft and apple leading the which. today a little amazon for good luck but it's lebron jamesly out of this. >> which is amazing, dan, because apple 50% this quarter and the slowdown in iphone sales from china that's why i alluded to to the fact that not saying fd don't matter but concerning news around apple haven't had any god news been concern. and goes high sfwleer apple started the year january 2019 guiding down guiding iphone sales ended down 35%. here working on a low base off expectations for you the year the trailing 12 months earnings and sales flat year over year from the prior year. but a stock up 82% on the year it started at 14 times where people are saying if china is slowing and iphone units aren't growing 14 times is expensive because we see the deceleration in services.

now a stock is up 10 oh% in this calendar year. 2% of the year gaining 600 billion in market cap and didn't grow earnings or sales, trading at 22 times forward. >> dan sounds bearish. >> mold on. >> and 24 times. >> it's gained a facebook market cap. >> what that means is you have just had massive multiple expansion when you see that action that's a a lot of good news to come if it doesn't come you have a. >> and that's the problem actually in fact if you look -- that's a broad market story as well not just apple story. we've seen it across tech, s&p ands nasdaq is you have seen nothing for earnings allier. in fact it's been a earnings glut because we missouri moved so much of the tax incentives in order to buy so that earnings are really great last year and really rough this year and all we have seen is expectation. the multiple expansion makes up for more than 100% of what we have experience zbld but the multiple expectation too you have to look at it used to be just a hardware company and it shifted now you think of it as

software company wab revenue generating company for surk subscribers from 20192018 to 2019 you had 38% growth in subscribers. now you've gone screaming streaming services coming in i signed up last week week for it. >> what's on disney plus is there anything. >> apple plus. >> apple plus sorry. >> the morning show. >> the morning show. worth buying it go buy it. >> there is potential and we can't forget we have 5g coming as well. obviously that's going to help the hardware xenoen that has been struggling. >> but i got -- you know, don't yell at me, tim i'm defending dan. i'm defending -- not that he needs it. >> what did i say. >> you said he was bearish. >> yeah. >> and i think don't dant dan's only point was if you're buy going you buy it because you anticipate good news you are hoping. >> paying for good news. >> guessing about the future. >> yeah. >> but i'm not saying go outen a boy apple after up 83% year to date by the way it's annualized at 83% for the daek

this is not that much the outsized for apple everything we are saying is consistent which is the stock rerated, trading at 20 times forwarded on a blended multiple getting new into services and digital. the hardware multiple rerated because we have wearable growing 25%. >> but getting to victoria's point all of that is priced in and that's dan's point yes it's good stuff, going to make a difference at some point however, you're already paying for it >> i'm the bad guy on this desk. >> i think to be fair you've been long apple. >> how i became the blazing apple -- >> it's tim's night. >> it's tim's night. >> i got plenty of this, take it on. >> i think it's interesting, because we talked about maga microsoft, apple, goog and amazon $4300000000000 trillion in market cap making up 43% of the nasdaq 100 when you look at outsized gains obviously amazen >> goog zblool goog. up 30% google underperforms the nasdaq

that's having its own multiple issues you would call it cheap. but maybe there are issues about their expected growth. and then amazon is trying to grow into the multiple but it's lagged the s&p and the nasdaq actually so i guess my concern is when you say it's annualized apple at 80% the last decade i'll say to you it's $1.3 trillion it's a massive percentage of the s&p 500. and you say there is money on the side people don't own it for the next tepp years what are the neg leg i'll tell you they do right now and it may take time to digest that. >> just perspective, brian we have to keep moving but think about nasdaq if you took if from highs of 2018 where you could take if from october op up 14% if october of 2018 up 22% from january of 2010. it's not like a tare it's a tear the last few months. but annualized over the last couple years with a lot of volatility it's not like that -- >> here is a theme we talked about the "halftime report," the

fomo, fear of missing out. if you run money for clients you have to own certain stocks but they get the forms early next year they're saying you why didn't you own amazon? remember there will be blood why don't i own this and this? you feel like they might come in and buy the stocks just to say, look, we owned that even if they don't like it and i bornd wonder what happens next year. >> you don't want to chase the market obviously if you don't own a soak suffolk you have a reason not to have that stand by let your clients know why, we just got amazon we added a azmodan the last couple weeks in our portfolio wove had that conversation with clients. but looking forward. >> you just did. >> we did. we did we just added it. >> where you been the last 20 years, victoria. >> well looking at the balance sheets, looking at the cash. >> why wasn't i one of her clients. >> i might be, okay. why do you think she is on the show i'm kidding i'm not the client what's making amazon now look attractive he is versus a year ago. >> i will tell you just like

apple has its own ecosystem. we see amazon creating its own ecosystem capturing the value chain by having their own delivery process they are working on, their own private label products they are using. they have gone and done the whole food things prevail. they are expanding and we think capturing the value chain helps the margins which we haven't liked previously but we see anticipation that's better. >> i would echo that and say they hit a threshold all the money they've been investing is. >> starting to pay back. >> you believe that 20 years of really no profit. >> from the world's largest non-profit. >> the pushback on that is one year it seemed that apple was growing into the values because it's a valuation that never made sense. but when you look at the ability to have operating leverage on their business -- the problem out of amazon is they have to the continue to reinvest, whether shippings logistics or infrastructure i don't think it stops for them. the question is what do you pay

for it it's fine to pay the multiple so far. >> you wonder wsh dan is there a breakout bring up the chart if we can because dan has been talking about amazon a while. >> yeah. >> and it had a great day today but amazon has not been a great money maker a year and a half. >> yf a problem with it. the fact that the stock continued as the nasdaq went par balance bollic the past few weeks is bullish when you say we are at the timing in the next year or two to gina's point about i about the investments i think the omni channel approach with bricks and mortar and verticalizing logistics, that makes sense. but i think what we have seen in 2019 is when they have the investment periods we have seen this over the last 20 years with the stock, the stock cools out it does. i don't think jeff bezos cares i don't think the investors cared over the last ten years. when you think about the take rate on new online sales they get 50% of all incremental online sales you say to yourself this is going to be a much bigger company. right now they have $200 billion in north american sales right

now. it's just not profitable so the other issue we mention is that aws is smaller percentage and their margins are contracting a bit. and that's kind of one of the reasons why i think the stock has been in the holding pattern. >> right but also i think part of aws wasn't necessarily about building something for customers. it was actually getting customers to fund something that amazon needed to build for itself in many ways amazon got their customers to go alongside them and help build infrastructure they needed anyway and they had turned that into business it was a bonus it made money. >> well one point and i want to move on. because i think this conversation sort of exemplifies one of the concerns people have the of the market we talked about apple and amazon every day. there is a lot other stocks. >> the. >> 550% of the qq is five stocks. >> yes. >> you wonder if everybody is piling in. >> what's -- lets move on i want to bring up the smh or sox semi

conductor. >> right. >> if you look at the nasdaq 100 the last 30 days with the exception of tesla and i think one other name, nine of the top ten have been semiconductor microchip, lam, amd all on for a fire. >> overcrowded semi conductor. >> when you think about semis so countercyclical in terms of trade winds. the smh for a kwhiel looked like it hit the peak in june of 2008 yet we plowed through the highs. if you think about a lot of the companies where we get updates you listen to taiwan semi, the white label provider for the industry they are seeingenormous demand and resurgent from southeast asia and growth areas. it's get back to though this is a momentum trade if you look at stocks within the smh they are the peak of that momentum. >> it's a momentum trade. >> actually i -- it's a fundamental value. >> i think there is fundamental value there. i think to your point about this being a supercycle for the

companies i think semis are part of a broader supercycle. part of what kept semis down was noise around trade and whether or not they were getting hit with various elements of the supply chain, whachs happening with the u.s.-china trade deal the -- if you look at sort of what has happened to semis appear they ebbed and flows. you saw cryptocurrency and bitcoin create semiconductor demand that waned we have continued cloud storage continuing to expand that created demand. i think that demand doesn't go down any time soon if anything i think that's a supercycle. >> that demand and the momentum we are talking about, that momentum continues when you look at markets that had 20 plus percentage up years 80% of the time the following year is positive as well with we have the momentum pushing cross the board. but the demand is there because the consumer is still strong look at the health of the consumer right now, i mean we have debt service ratios, the lowest they've ever been, financial obligation as 7-ier les.

savings rate at 8% 20-ier high. the consumer is there which gives the demand for the products and i think semis along with the rest of the market has the momentum going forward. >> great macrodiscussion it's been a record day and year for your money if you bought at the 2009 lies lows if you listensed to mark haines been a record decade for your money but as the saying go goes out with the old in with the new in the 2020s. bob pisani in the new york stock exchange and you are champing at the bit to jump in here. >> i have. but it's remarkable what a decade this has been, broien, started out with fear, and ending with historic highs investors have been absorbed with the search for growth why technology so dramatically outperformed everything. more than 300% on the daek consumer discretionary done well health care industrials, consumer staps one notable stand outhere. energy is the only sector with no gains at all for the last

decade so what is next here if history is any guide, investors should avoid the fallacy the future looks like the past we have often noted stocks in sectors outperforming one year underperformed the following year called mean reversion it's a tendency for investments to return to long-term averages and it happens over long period of time. let me show you an example look at 2000 and 2009. the top three sectors in that decade were energy, consumer staples and materials. they tended to underperform in the next decade, 2010 to 2019. up only 807% the three bottom sectors back then communications services and technology and financials, they tended to outperform in the decade up 184% this phenomenon happens happened from 1990 to 2000. it was the technology was the best performing and worst performer in the following decade what does mean reversion why does it work as an investment strategy for the stock market mechanic

it's two explanations first in a capital system underperforming sectors tend to be ruthlessly restructured until more efficient. secretarily the furpt fallacy humans contend to buy things going up in value creating bubbles that burst, and broien that's one of the tenets of the idea in 2008 and the problems we had then as well. >> i remember those days i'm not sure other people do but we remember them, bob. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> bob pisani always interesting historical perspective and important historical perspective. the question victoria is we're going to ask you a sim one because you're new to the desk. >> on the spot. >> what's the market -- s&p target ten years from now is what >> higher. it's higher. >> nice answer. >> i like that. >> there we go. >> higher. >> okay how about this, next year what do you think, to bobs's point people buying the winner do you like the setup for 2020. >> i like the setup for 2020 but i think the reason we're

looking -- i know he is talking about mean reversion and we have had the techs and strels doing well the past year. but i think they're set up well for next year also you have a central bank that's extremely accommodative. you have low inflation companies sitting on cash ready to maybe put it to work because we have some of the uncertainties around trade and other issues coming off the table a bit. so you are setting yourself up to allow the cyclical names to continue to do well next year. we won't see the mean reversion in the next 12 months. >> i'm jumping in because she is in from houston. >> "i." >> oil appear gas. if you are in mean reversion you are a buyer of oil appear gas. >> go ahead. >> so if you thanksgiving about where the s&p waning and the energy sector was in 2008, towards the end of the decade, almost 17%, 16.8% at the peak. it's 4.2% now. you haven't had to own energy if you were a fund manager.

in fact you could have avoided disasters. you get a lot of cli shay. and if you think about the elongated cycles of energy, and emerging markets we in a period where there was a supply response that comes in the commodity space, whether oil, nickel. think about the end of last decade and everybody thought we would have a shortage of raw materials, et cetera what happened is not only is there a technical standard deviation the things bob talked about but there is a fundamental reason why we get this they stopped investing in mines and infrastructure around the energy sector because the stuff wasn't profitable. eventually a place comes where spli and demand evens out. i think it emerging markets which is underperforming for a decade if we get the reflation trade that's exactly where you see assets move.

>> but i put it another perspective. right now investors are looking for value in the investments and you are talking about the cheapest sectors and areas that's one of the reasons you see the emerging markets was the redheaded step child of and everybody's portfolio. >> there is cheap and cheap for a reason. >> a lot of the companies all they do is use every pit bit of free cash flow to pay debt service. i don't need tell you that the ceo may be out but there is plenty of drama at bogt. a new report talking about alleged disturbing behavior at the company. and later home building stalks stalling out after a strong start to the year. will there be a new builder boom in 2020 if rates stay lo live in new york city times square and there is much more "fast money" i'm told right after this or training for something you've never done before. that's room for possibility.

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it brought the documents to the fa a and congress but added gnat tone and content do not reflect the company we are or need to be. this comes as days after boeing fired the ceo dennis muilenberg. the stock is positive for the year but could face headwinds in the new year here is phil lebeau what to expect. next year boeing's 737 max will have three critical moments. first expect recertification early in 2020. the head of the fa a, steve dick s&p saw said he won't prove it until he flies it himself. there are a number of hurdles to clear before it takes off. but most believe it will be recertified in the first couple months next year once that happens, expect airlines to make a big push to convince fliers the max is safe. southwest, american and united have parked max planes for almost a year. they know passengers may

hesitate or flat outrefuse to board a max. so executives of those airlines will on max flights to reassure customers, the planes are good to go. once the max is back, look for boeing to slowly ramp up production yes, the assembly line will be down at the start of the year. but boeing will likely go to building 42 a month by mid-year. what about the max airplanes that have been built but not yet delivered? they will eventually take off. and go to the airlines that have ordered them but it will take all of 2020 and beyond for boeing to clear out the inventory of more than 40 oh max airplanes. >> and that was phil lebeau with the playbook 2020. gina sanchez your view on ba. >> borg is not out of the woods. >> looks like it's going deeper in the woods. >> if anything this is turk -- everybody talks about esg process this is a social and

governance story a story about bad governance you're getting to a point where customers are going to stop trusting the company and once you get that, that is deep in the woods. >> yeah, i think you are right i think -- look, this is all a culture change at boeing that needed to happen and it's easy to look look like and shine a bright like say there was arrogance and ob citizenens with the fa aen with we're continuing to hear about this at the end of the day you have the same company people loved two years ago. the reality is that larry kjell ner will do a charm offensive with the airlines. he comes out of that world calhoun will -- there was a journal article he called. the faa he let them know it was a new sheriff in town, inclusive sheriff. that's where we are, although the three guys were part of the last regime but doing their best to set a culture change. >> but you have two more stories, right one story saying by the way calhoun made massive

donations into the gop directly to mcconnellwhose wife is the head of the department of transportation that's one story. >> elaine ciao. >> business at usual in d.c. >> perhaps but this isn't the kind of story that helps the new sheriff in town look credible. and you know without conflict. and the second is the story that muilenburg may walk away with anywhere from to 30 to 60 million in aland gone pair chute while you talk about 1,444,000 split up between 346 victims pro rata that's terrible. >> and you're telling a bad story. telling a bad story but if you look at boeing and say it's a duopoly. i guess the worst case for the boeing customers is they switch to a different borg jet. >> well they have 400737 maxs parked in deserts. andive the cost structure rejig

reported to build 4500 over these it's easier said than done that they buy another bogey jet. i think it gets uglier before it gets better. >> how do you explain the stock which has done almost nothing through all of this with a lot of headwinds. >> are you making the point that it hasn't dropped? >> yeah, i'm tell you we all know we're pricing in a lot of uncertainty on the legislative side. >> because everybody keeps saying it's back into service soon it's like the sixth time they've said that. >> that was one of the problems at boeing. >> and maybe the change of muilenburg. >> the fa. a was not happy. but either way you can't tell me analyst around street haven't haven't changed the the number they made cut backs. the stock is raiding in a range. >> are the passengers getting become on the jet when it goes back into service in sumg assuming it does we'll find out there is more could coming your way on "fast money." including this. >> announcer: it wasn't a very

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all right welcome back to "fast money. we spoke a lot about amazon's big day earlier. keeping busy not just with those getting out deliveries before christmas but processing return returns the next couple day. it's not the only retailer seeing customers bringing back gifts they don't like, need or want and so with that holiday pierret in mind. >> we love the spirit of giving. >> it got us thinks in the spirit of holiday returns, what

stocks do you wish you could send back? tim seymour kick it off. >> it has to be l brands they -- bath and body works appear victoria secret you have two different fortunes but getting weighed down by vikty secret i don't think anyone changes whef we talked about l brands we got gratuitous foot annual we'll stop that. the bottom line is this stock is we went into the daektd $18 stock trade the up 95 we leave the stock at the end of the decade bath and body works drawing 7% to 8%. victoria secret drawing down 4% to 5%. active dynamics that could change the board room that is left with a brand that's no mall to. >> would anybody pick up the return a buyer of lv. >> no. >> that says it all gina your return to sender >> that's apache we talked about mean reversion

there is one about avoiding a falling knife. sometimes things are cheap for a ren. you look at energy energy pat 19 times trailing you look at apache, 15 times and the reason is that they are just having tremendous troubles with a key drilling that they are doing down in suriname they're not making any real effort -- they're not making any head with, i mean. and having troubles elsewhere, which is to say they have having production troubles. how are you making money if you can't produce. >> $68 stock. >> gina, this is not -- it's not aic isle energy call you say this is a brekeen company. >> this is a broken company. >> got it. >> okay, now, victoria, do i understand it as the houston resident on panel you are sending an oil and gas stock also back. >> at least part of it i'm in the saying completely sell exxonmobil. that's our pick. but trim the position as a owe bait not because we don't like

it for holding in the long-term. but he think there is a better use of the funds we could have receive over the past year you look at the chart year to date on praising from the he said of the first quarter it's downhill all the way we think there were better uses of funds nan keeping it in exxonmobil. >> a triple a credit rating not a lot of debt relative to cashfully. 5% defend yield >> that's why long-term i think it's an okay holding but trim some of the position while it's doing the steady decline down use the proceeds for higher quality name in your portfolio doing better that year. >> a a final return to send frere dan nathan. >> i think what victoria said it's important there is better uses of funds we don't have finite amounts of capital like you big guy hey, there. >> lets go back to apple- we have infinite, apple and just to put -- i've been wrong on this the last 10%, the thing went parabolic. the last time it it that was summer into fall of 2018, a

20-plus% return in a straight line over two months over the next few months dropped 45% peak to trough it has had multiple 30% plus peak to trough declines in the months i'm not your broker hedge fund manager. i'm telling you this stock has a tendency to lose a third to 40% of the value every couple of years. and it usually happens after a parabolic move like this. >> good stuff returning to sender two oil and gp l.a. brands and apple. coming up we reveal the stock of the decade it's just one name that has dominated the market the past ten years. the first -- but first, tim taking the mound to pitch the next big idea. a housing related stock that he says is a total home run stu ready? fa pitch. >> that's next on "fast money." >> fire it up. les in the spide'. with every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled.

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itreat them all as if, they are hot and energized. stay away from any downed wire, call 911 and call pg&e right after so we can both respond out and keep the public safe. and well back to "fast money. home build esper have been a red hot trade for investors this year but could the builder boom go bust here is diana olick with the 2020 housing playbook. >> the housing market is a mix of highs and lows. here is what to watch in 2020. first, the housing shortage will

get worse. the number of homes for sale is already low. and demand is incredibly strong thanks to improving employment and the largest generation aging into its home buying years the demand however is mostly on the low end where supply is leanest. that will cause prices to continue to overheat at the entry leefl while prices ease on the higher end where the supply is plentiful second mortgage rates stay low mortgage rates dropped in 2019 appear will stay low through 2020 a as uncertainty over a trade war and presidential election year keep investors hef in the bond market mortgage rates loose willy fool follow yields are kweelds. the only find wund wildcard is mortgage reform preponderates could break high are with fanny and fred y finally bullish on builders. the combination of housing shornl and new lower interest rates will keep demand both single and multifamily. the builders are ramping up

production pan ner pivoting to entry level home in 2019 if they are afford to put up big sales number will follow hit nds continue to be high prices for land, labor and regulatory compliance. that of course was diana olick reporting. check out the the best performing home buildners 2019 this is not a home nld builder but they build stuff going in-houses. and others are home builders the one from columbus, ohio. will the builder rally continue into next year, victoria. >> i think it will we own lennar in the portfolio there is strength going forward with mortgage rates in low and with the momentum we see the consumer, we think housing mri has room to go. >> so afford ability definitely helps that too because you have accommodating fed as you mentioned earlier. housing affordable isfordfordable as we have seen and we have in a shortage of

inventory. d.r. horton benefitted from that in particular. and you are seeing a catch-up in the space. >> you are you're in l.a. >> yes. >> there is no housing affordability you have to move to victorville to afford it. we talk about the big stocks is there any stock in place like bristol, virginia. off the money places, new york that's not how you make the big money. >> macroyou stay in a lot of different constructs you can't stay in the bad neighborhood literally in the housing space rates go higher in 2020. housing stocks, not good they are correlated to rates market two thirds of the return was correlation and beta related to lower rates in 2019. >> but i don't think they're going higher i think they go sideways 2020 will be a weak year. >> i don't think rates are going to three, three and a half

we talked about trades reflation trades that's a higher rate stocks. >> just overlay the 30-year mortgage the last couple years wrent from 4.8 down to 3.8 where it is now. if you do home sales you overlay that we're at almost 10-year years and a year ago at 4.8 a 10-year high in mortgage rates they are lower it's a rate call injury it's interesting the 10-year treasury has a lot of trouble here at 2% but if we get into this period where you know you talk about consumer, talking about all this stuff. all the headwinds to global growth the out of the way preponderates have to go higher. >> you can't say that. >> but if the economy is strong. >> they should be going. >> agree i'm saying two years ago everybody on cnbc rates at 3% next thing we know at 1.5. sticking with the housing space. tim says there is one name building up for big gains into

the new year tim head to the plasma, please give us your fast pitch. >> housing stocks how about a derivative on the housing sector ultimately the fast pitch is home depot, a company that rerated also in the last decade. but i want to talk about a couple of things that i think are really what's going on first of all this is a darling stock for much much 2017, 2018, the stock has done nothing effectively in the last couple years. i think there's been a maefts sentiment reset including the analyst day in mid-december where any guided lower on margins. if you think about the fundamentals of the company and running the business revechg in technology and pro services which is a high margin business we talk about macro. we talked about the macrotrends. how about retail sales we saw this also come out ofthe who will dau season, up 3.5% 3.5% unemployment. the consumer is employed this is a housing shortage what do you do you reinvest in the home you have you're taking out a heloc which has never been easier to

get. finally i want to say the chart is your friend this is a case where what we talked about the company that i think was a darling stock and one that really outperformed -- but again, look, you had the sideways trend if you look where the dsh stock -- this is a two-ier price target excuse me two-year chart you had a couple of moments where it might have might break through the bottom end and it'sen been consolidating here and like a lot of stocks after two years of doing nothing if anything this price action tells me it's going higher. >> there is tim's fast pitch on home depot. >> not my first rodeo, pal. >> that makes sense. and if you believe what the ladies were saying about the economy about the consumer i think then get into home depot here it's up 28% on the year down 6% on the highs importance though the earnings guidance they gave a month and a half ago. >> you get that guy i don't want

to buy into two down grades of guidance i'm i'm not a buyer >> i have to disagree here i'm going with buy and all goes back to. >> >> no, no she said buy. >> buy, buy we're buying >> she disagreed with the disagreement which is an agree >> love it. >> i think. >> just to confuse you so, yes we are a buyer we think housing continues to do well republican with remolding it's a winner >> that's a buy. >> i'm going with the no buy no buy you got sell by and no buy. >> tuba getting a lot of work on the home depot. >> the one home depot announcement they made is a massive project that's going to take several years and it's going to depress the stock for some time as they swallow this investment over time it can be a fwd investment that will pay itself back but i think it's not just a one or two quarter problem it's a

multiyear investment problem. >> tim, the fast pitch high and outside, you know what i mean. >> i don't know maybe just a little -- maybe leaning over the plate a bit had to brush you back. >> two nos and yes for home depot how about you you at home in you can vote on the twitter poll at cnbc "fast money." reveal the results later on in the show coming up, it is the stock of the decade the rising competition could put a chill on the name. the details when we come back. plus why options traders make a big bet on the most important meal of the day. how can you make money off breakfast? 'lte y cinupwel llouomg are us. except work. why is that? is it because people love filling out forms? maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much vacation time they have. or sending corporate their expense reports. i'll let you in on a little secret. they don't. by empowering employees to manage their own tasks,

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all right welcome back to "fast money. pretty much like every other sector it's been a strong year for insert name here no, consumer staples general mills. one of those up a whopping 35% this year and over in the options market one trader bets big on the most important yield of day pgs ohs play chief strategist tony zhang at the plasma to break down action and what he sees on gas options. >> general mills does not trade

actively normally less than 4,000 contracts but today 30,000 contracts traded and this is a rl i get asked a lot of questions about the strategy lets break it down today what we saw was a investor who already owns almost 50,000 contracts ever the $50 call options that expire in april he sold these collecting $16,000 in proposal yum. took testimony to by the contracts expiring in january 2021 paying 5.45 for that that net was $7.8 million he spent a little over $2 million to basically extend this trade by eight months. and to understand this trade i think we have to look at the chart. so the original april options were established back here in around september and i think the trader was lacking for a breakout this stock traded within a tight range. as you can see the trade did not materialize. what we see is they zoom out to

a five-year chart. and to my eye you have a big bottoming formation inverted head and shoulders forming and i think the trader wants to buy more time looking at maybe about a $60 target on this tick trade by the january 2021. >> all right watching g. i. s. great stuff thank you very much. tony zhang. >> thank you. >> for more "options action" check out the pull show 5:30 p.m. eastern time. the one stock outperforming every other in the s&p 500 the past ten years as wa le alysivat the nasdaq more "fast money" still ahead. this piece is talking to me. yeah? so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity. i see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah.

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all right. welcome back to "fast money. we've been teasing it all show long the stock of the daek. that stock is netflix. >> nice job. >> the stock dominating since 2010 dominating since 2010. revolutionized the content distribution landscape, reshaped the idea of the blockbuster hit.

not only netflix the s&p best performer outperforming hollywood at its game. scoring 15 oscar om naks attention in 2019 alone. and won 43 emmys since 2013. it has evolved and so has the streaming landscape tp it can netflix remain in the spotlight no 2020 or is it curtains for the stock. julia boorstin is has more. >> netflix did define an entirely new industry of streaming video disrupting the pay tv business as well as the movie industry and now the original streamer is facing a slough of new competitors. the first wave of new rivals, apple tv plus, launching november 1st which was-free with the purchase of any apple device. followed by disney plus on november 12th. drawing 10 million sign ups in the first day. we'll have to see whether either

of these eat into the netflix four quarter subscribers coming up next in april, cnbc parent company is said to launch ad supported peacock including a-free and paid option followed in may by the launch of at&t hbo max all of the rivals aren't competing for consumers. they're fighting for content which is and will continue to push content costs higher. now, netflix forecasts the addition of $600,000 subscribers in the u.s added in the fourth quarter. slightly more than it added last quarter and it does say it expects to add 7 million subscribers over seas in q4. remember those international subscribers don't pay as much as those in the u.s brey sfloon julia, thank you very much. quick comment, anybody on netflix stock of the decade? >> first of all, this is the miss of the decade for me. to be clear, i kept saying too expensive too expensivive.

i think the market demands profitability from all companies in a different way and the competitive landscape. the irishman was a disappointment things you expected maybe in the in terms of quality but in terms of the viewership. i would never be besmirch mr. scorsese. >> i'll make a point about the new decade i would wait until they report earnings in mid-january if they have a subscriber miss of expectations i don't think you want to oent it in 2020. >> so much for the economy. >> and going forward there is new competitors coming out and julia talks are talked about that and these competitors this is not the only revenue stream. for netflix this is allive they have when you look at apple and disney they have other sources of revenue to use to buy content orb develop content or support the system right now because they are doing it so cheap. >> but the bulls would say that's what they're good at a and all they didn't are do and

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welcome back check out this video so it looks like a normal package delivery driver doing his job. walks up, puts down a package. takes a confirmation photo

but not so fast. he then picks it back up and apparently steals it police say they reached out to azmodan to identify the driver but the company was less than cooperative saying they would only help track down the man if a subpoena was served. that's a boo time to reveal the results from the fast pitch on home depot this is close but tim sad to say 49 viewers of at home do not agree. >> that means i won. >> 51% did >> hold on. >> i -- >> this has never happened before. >> this is not called math money for a reason. >> mold on a second. >> if i got 51 -- if i had to guess someone might have flipped. >> lets do the trinl trade tim. >> immuttering home depot dance with the one that brunk you a conservative guide you get to roughly 15 times you're at 25 a dollar stock. >> i'm going to for disney pb

the disney plus outperformed but shown pricing power. >> we buy master card good revenue and margin and buying back stock. >> netflix again not a buy after the 15% run in the new year. >> really appreciate that. >> 49%. good win "mad money" with jim starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc, or tweet me @jimcramer. you want to know the single most useless thing you can do in this busy that's easy. the most useless thing you can do as an investor is