expensive to get a car from jfk. which shows you they are subdiezing both sides. >> i'll find out tomorrow morning what the car costs. >> the car. >> i thought you were going to say the helicopter. >> that does it are for us here at "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. yes, we are. live from the nasdaq market site over look new york's times square where there is about a billion people this is "fast money. i'm brian sullivan happy friday. trade ertz are christian from hertz. gina sanchez tony zang and dan nathan tonight on fast, the record rally comes to an end for the nasdaq ending the 11-day win streak but will it end more than that we'll get answers about the market and the money ahead from worst to first. energy could be the standout sector into the new year and our 2020 playbook offers a scary prediction later, there's been a lot of talks about netflix being the

best performing s&p 500 stock the past decade. lets get nasty now can you name the worst we're naming names on the dog of the decade all right all that ahead with you we begin with the major headwinds from american airlines shares of aal tumbling today after wolf research said the company likely wouldn't meet guidance for the next carrier merp sits amid major tushlens. the fleet of max planes are grounded underperforming rivals like delta. and far underperforming the stock etf ticker jets look at the chart. american is the white line, the wrong direction. does in stock, american airlines, gina, deserve a ticket out of our -- into our portfolio. >> i think it's rough for american airlines. if you look at the forward -- aggressive forward guidance is wasn't that aggressive they are looking at 4.5% growth. american airlines the last zaekd are decade has grown zero% jets has been pushed by alaska

airlines and southwest those have been the only profitable airlines. superprofitable airlines this past decade. if you look at the iata they expect actual airline profitability to decline peaking out at 2015. still positive but going in the wrong direction. >> i thought the airlines were making all the money, baggage fees, fees to board first. seems like some airlines have done great. >> i think the majors like you mention they still underperform the market brewedly. american is down 25% from the 52-week highs and significantly below the all the all-time highs where delta is acting better up on the year. the performance on the industry is mixed with american in particular of the majors they have given guidance about what the max shutdown means for them and they inches it up every month or quarter they talk about it and that seems to be something weighing on the stock going into 2020 with all the uncertainty when the plane gets back to me, whether it deserves to. >> when the plane gets back. >> whether it deserves to kind of make into your portfolio in 2020 i say this is not the

market where people want to buy the laggards and just look at the stuff that's working in tech and financials you want to buy the stuff working. >> ride the moment up pup christian, listen, we almost never open up "fast money" talking about american airlines. the reason we are is that so many stocks are so high trying to fine some opportunities for aurora our audience that have not performed well, that are maybe inexpensive. dant are dan doesn't like it says the trend is not your friend your take? >> i get with the note they put out today. but have you been to the airports recently? they're packed i'm in the sure i would necessarily agree with the wolf report but i think it's too hard. to dan's point it's too hard a trade. just because they are done and could be the next drup up. it's too hard and they will. >> i like this from a technical setup. this is down 50% from the all-time highs you have the inverted head and shoulders around the $30 level i

think a key line in the sand that i think if it can be above the $30 level i think you get a nice rally in the stock. >> but if the $30 level is breached and becomes support and see the movement. >> exactly the neckline on the inverted head and shoulders. >> watch 30. >> yeah. >> lets turn to the broader market like even the best baseball hitters out there all hot streaks end. stocks no exception. nasdaq snapping the 11-day win streak but the dow and s&p 500 eeked out winning. and there is a standout in the last couple days consumer stocks, one of the consumer discretionary etf the xly, you guess to do hitting an all-time high during the day. now christian thinks the broader rally will run off the charts. he heads to plasma and breakdown the consumer discretionary do your think, chrisse >> consumer discretionary stocks

another leader of the market you can see from the chart even though up 30% year to date it's just recently broken out now part of that which i want to talk about amazon. -- amazon is 23% of the etf. you have to ask -- to address amazon in this trade so amazon just starting to get going. i think they were fueled by the holiday sales, which is a catalyst that i think you really needed to get amazon going so what i really like here if we go ahead and draw a couple of charts -- draw a couple of lines in here for amazon, you could see we have the nice range we have going on here and you could see that we've got support touching many places along here and we're just breaking out. so it's a little bit different than the overall market which has brekeen out the last couple weeks. that push by amazon and some of the helpers in the name we were just talking about the airlines, but if you look at the hotels which are part of the consumer discretionary etf, you know have completely broken out. next what i want to do is i want

to take a look at consumer discretionary versus consumer staples. i think that's a good representation of -- oops, we'll hit clear here clear that out is a good representation of risk-on markets. when consumer discretionary xly breaks out from xlp. you have a risk on market. if we look at the pattern. i like what court courter worth says draw the lines any way you want. and i will draw this somewhat straight lineup similar support. and then over here as well so i see what is setting up to be a nice breakout and move higher of course we know where this -- oops we know where this isn't going to work. if it starts to break down here. i think this is setting up for a really nice breakout if you look at consumer in general and look at the areas breaking out, look at the restaurants, you look at the hotels, and you look at some of the smaller areas of consumer

discretionariary -- with amazon pushing forward you have a bullish trade going forward. >> good stuff there christian process. come back over to the desk lets trade it. my only beef with the xly you got to what he know what you own. amazon -- you're basically buying amazon and mcdonald's. >> this is the good news for xly because amazon is 24% of the etf, basing for the last few months because it broke out on what is perceived good fundamental news that's why you want to play the xly for the breakout especially in 2020 and it's like 2018 and it's risk on market you want to go for growth, at the momentum and amazon could break the xly out. one thing about the xlp i agree with the charting that's a wedge. going one way or the other if xly breaks out process i would deem xll process that probably underpermanence i think it could be a good pair

trade, long xly short xlp. >> consumers have been strong in 2019 injury you still see that, azmodan the price movement yesterday is constructive of this but as far as xly goes you have a lot of strength here in this particular dsh in this particular sector. but i think. >> mostly driven by amazon. >> well hold on starbucks is in there which is up. >> azmodan, home depot home depot is 10% nobody bought the fast pitch on home depot i think it's nic ostarbucks. >> mcdonald's. >> mcdonald's you are really buying that. >> i think you have to be careful. because there are some subsectors in this particular space underperforming like automobiles. but i think retail like you said, hotels, leisure these are strong perform zbleers ant double edged -- amaze isn't a double edlin sword, right. because one of the things making amazon great is they're growing into the overvaluation but they have a healthy valuation making consumer discretionary look

overvalued they are the third most overvalued the sector the last decade because of amazon amazon feeds that. but they also had the second best earnings over the last decade as well, right? and that earnings is continuing. so, you know, it's a double edged sword, right it makes them overvalued and growthier than it should be. >> i think cloud is also a concern here, whether or not we see -- we see the strength in microsoft dominating this space, the pentagon deal. this is headwinds for amazon i think the stock price the last few years reflects that. >> that's interesting. as the awks grows and we don't know the numbers is amazon really a consumer stock if they make more money from the cloud. >> they make money from the advertising. >> than they do from the core business are they consumer a stock. >> they are going to stop being a consumer stock. >> they have $to 0 -- most sales. >> but it used to be 70%. >> amazon, the trade setup into

the new year they missed -- excuse me beaden lower guidance the headline number is a bate and guide down for the current quarter. what i would say is wasted on the move right here it seems some investors feel confident that they are beating the q4 guides that was low, right and now it depends as they go into the seasonally soft quarter when you look at how much sales decline sequentially into q1 what can they do there because you know they are not picking up a lot as far as retail spaels in q1. >> yeah. >> appear that brings up a good point, is we're coming up earnings season, in the last two quarters they have had they've been a bit dudish, technical term but it is what it is they're going to have to deliver into the quarter kind of using the delivery, you know, to say that, hey, i mean, the amount of boxes that we have seen in terms of deliveries. >> the fundamentals are great no one doubts it. but i wrote this about a year and a half ago on cnbc.com i think, tell me if i'm wrong.

-- if you own amazon stock you have to have a margin of risk reversal for a tweet from the president in the dodge cross hairs. any kind of anti-trust i'm not saying it's happening but it's floating out there as much or more than any other company. >> that's held it back. >> i think it has. >> the regulatory concern is one of the things holding amazon back. >> because bezos and trump are buddies. >> yeah. >> coming up, lets call this the dog of the decade. do you know the worst performing stock in the s&p 500 the last ten years? we showed you the best yesterday. what's the worst submit your guesses at cnbc some people got it because i put it on twitter we reveal the answer you guys are so smart. speaking of the worst, the worst of the worst performing sectors this year. but is it set to fire up in 20 it has positive momentum now will that roll on as the calendar does. rod.l find out stick aun you're watching "fast money. i , my biggest fear was losing my independence.

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welcome back to "fast money. as you all know, energy has had a rough run in 2019. it's had a rough decade. still the worst performing sector this year but what lies ahead. here is what to watch for in

2020 stagnant oil prices, heavy corporate dead lotes and environmentally conscious investors selling oil and gas stocks slammed the energy industry in 2019 all this as the u.s. reached a major milestone. becoming a net exporter of crude and petroleum products for a full month for the first time in 70 years all this as the race for another kind of element, the so-called rare earth minerals began to heat up. here is what to watch for in energy in 2020 first a wave of bankruptcies unless oil prices rise, the industry and investors may have to endure a number of reorganizations. many companies are struggling with huge amounts of debt. built up when oil prices were on the rise and unless oil jumps in price. wall street is unlikely to let companies refinance or extend obligations. second, international resources shift. venezuela likely loses control much citgo after years of courtroom battles between a hedge fund and a government of venezuela, the

final battle likely comes in 2020 and it's possible the courts ultimately rule against venezuela. allow citgo to be seized, auctioned off and bought by an american company or companies. third, the race for rare earth minerals goes full tlolts. if you want to build of an vierltly sensitive promgts like electric car or wind turban. you need rare earth ligaments. skob steuer mineral lies lithium and neodymium. china controls the elements right now. but there are works in the projects to in the u.s. to catch up this will be the battleground to watch in 2020 >> lets kick it around here. that was a great piece. >> well done. >> that was really. >> best piece of the year, brian. >> well said. >> where is energy headed in 00. >> i think crude oil bounced off of 50 a few times the last few months that seemed to be a he can itle support level. i look at exxon.

gina talking about it last night up 5% off the recent lows can't get going. chevron can't get going. the ones you talk about that risk going bankrupt in 2020, those have moves because the leverage in the balance sheet. but i think you avoid those. you look a at the interrogated and don't see hope for equities near term unless you get the massive move in crude in 2020. >> and you're not getting a massive -- i think the expectation for crude is so far beyond what it's capable of. you hear opec is cutting production this is great but if you look you also see demand has been slowing as well meaning production cuts have to be like a lot bigger than they're going to be pifrpg we're going to end up disaping >> remember, opec cutting production but saudi cutting more than the quota. if they went back to the quota level in some ways they could produce more there is a trick of math there. >> yes. >> it's a bit confusing. >> saudis cut 130%. >> we have the biggest oil field in the world get bombed two

months ago and oil barely budged. >> not even a blip. >> i don't think oil is getting past meaningfully past 6 oh, 60. the xle move getting above the 200-day moving average is tempting to pick a bottom. if but if see oil prices i don't see anything moving higher only thing making sense is oil names liken bridge. >> you're talking about midstream and pipelines. >> and pipelines are a different beast snmt are you on the mlps. >> i was going there we saw a bullish divergence a couple weeks back. rallying off the lows. we have seen bullish option activity that's a space i look at you look at the amlp etf, about 9% i agree with what you guys are saying it's bounce. nowive you have the heavy lifting xle at the 200 day moving average i like the material space better techically breaking out. >> i talked to a had hedge fund

manager. he was long enterprise transfer. shortkinder morgue effectively the same company but becausekinder morgan was in the s&p 500 he felt the valuations were above where they should be because it's bought by the etfs and the people buying the spyp and he had like the those not representing the major indexes. >> the leverage compensate is. the the mlps were destroyed by referring. that's one of the ways to daveiating. >> i've run ved sheets from capital 646 billion in gross debt on the industry in. >> that's still a problem going forward. i think this if anything is a opportunity to sell xle. >> sell the xle. >> speaking of energy nobody likes it but there's been so much to talk about with netflix being the best of the decade we asked you be, can you name the worst performing fiefd stock over the last ten years? some of you got it i want an energy name.

apache it's down 75% from the beginning of the decade. it's lost over 70% of the market cap since then almost $26 billion in market there have been worse stocks but this is in the index this was the stock gina we did the return to sender stock you said you wish you could have returned this one. >> absolutely. unfortunately we have a very robust energy portfolio. so we get all shapes and sizes this one we nifrpg is just a broken company if you look at every metric, return on equity returnen on assets they are just not efficiently running the company. and they're disappointing or having major disappointments, drilling off of surinane a dry hole saying they are doing the same thing and somehow it's different and we don't think so. >> apache, the honor of being the dog of the decade. for more on the 2020 playbook and sectors that might lead in the new year head over to cnbc.com

in the meents here is what else is coming up on the television >> announcer: the markets are close to capping off the best year in more than two decades. but can earnings growth support even more gains? and with the markets notching one new high after another, how can you protect yourself if there is a plbk ulaccoming all that and more when we return on day one. congress has never passed an important climate bill, ever. this is a problem which continues to get worse. i've spent a decade fighting and beating oil companies, stopping pipelines, stopping fossil fuel plants, ensuring clean energy across the country. how are we going to pull this country together? we take on the biggest challenge in history, we save the world and we do it together. apps except work.rywhere... why is that? is it because people love filling out forms? maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much vacation time they have.

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and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley. and welcome wak to "fast money. it's time for the chart of the we can and this week, the more the merier it's not just one chart that dan brought us it's four? >> well, listen, brian, we're telling a story here and i know a picture tells a thousand words but lets go with a a thousand charts here is the deal.

lets start with the s&p 500 up nearly 30% on the year just a few trading days left here i think what's interesting look at the chart there in late october. broke out of the range it had been up about 7.5%. which obviously is a whole heck of a lot in a very short period of time in that time period have we had headwinds removed obviously the rd trade stuff moderated and the fed a accommodative. that's where i want to go next here the next chart is interesting. and this is a hat tip to a contributor of cnbc. peter. and obviously if the the fed had been coming down at some point earlier this year it started expanding. peter mentioned over the last four months it's grown about $100 billion 400 in total off the bottom here it's hard to put that together and not see that as peter mensed in the note this morning that's not benefitting stocks that's the balance sheet overlaid with the s&p 500 over the last six months. that's important to remember, like i said, the trade stuff is

out of of the way in near-term the fed is accommodative and other things shape up decently for stocks especially with the calendar and the new year. but to the next chart here, and i think this is important. when you think about in right here, this is really valuations here and why are stocks going up? i know gina has a lot to say here but in the start of 2019, the consensus for s&p earnings was up 173, $174 and where does it stand now if $163 where was the p-/e multiple? it was about 14 np where it is it now pushing on 20 right now. when you think of the confluence of all the events, it's hard to say that the accommodative fed in a year where earnings for the s&p are not growing from the start of in year is not having a big impact here. so as we head into 2020 injury it's really important to contained of get a sense of where you think rates are going, where you think the fed is going with the balance sheet, and

where you think s&p earnings are going. as you with the s&p up 30% right now i would say that a discounting a lot of good news into 2020. >> that's absolutely right that is basically the fed pouring the champagne, right and everyone is drinking it. >> well we'll see what happens if the champagne dries up. good stuff there time forthe final trades already. the show goes like that. lets go around the horn starting with you chrisse >> paypal bullish paypal just over the 200 day moving average and getting out of consolidation they go higher. >> pypl. >> emerging markets is not nearly as highly valued as the rest of the equity complex and the excess liquidity will pep help em skbr or the eem? that ka tony your pick. >> disney. disney has one of the strongest contents of the streaming players and disney plus blow it out the of the water. >> led by baby yoda. >>en at pull back to 145 great buying opportunity can be.

>> dan. >> into 2020 buy tlt play for lower treasury yields. the 10-year has trouble at the 2% and i think headwinds to growth take the tlt higher. >> that does it for us budot t n'go anywhere we'll be back in a few minutes with "options action. the winter. they never stray from their predetermined path. but this season, a more thrilling journey is calling. defy the laws of human nature. at the season of audi sales event.

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>> announcer: "options action. strategies from the streets top traders. new opportunities to profit from new opportunities to profit from the market's if you see wires down, new optreat them all as ift from ththey are hot and energized. stay away from any downed wire, call 911 and call pg&e right after so we can both respond out and keep the public safe.

it is 5:30 p.m. here on friday at the nasdaq and that could only mean one thing. it's time for "options action. here is what's on tonight. >> announcer: a new year a new strategy how you can protect your profits with stocks sitting at record highs. plus -- >> you're killing me smalls. >> the small caps have been sitting out the record run but one trader says a big breakout is coming he gives us the trade. and later, netflix takes the cr