invest more every year so inflation doesn't eat away at the pace your investing. that's what we're exiting to is encouraging every one to stay n invested >> thank you very much >> for more check out cnbc.com that does it for the exchange. let's send it over to power lunch. thank you very much. good and timely advice there about how to get off on the right foot welcome to the first "power lunch" of 2020 stocks are surging to record highs to kick off the roaring '20ss. how long can the party last? no ironies there we'll debeat thate that it's been a rough ride for pelonto. t -- peleton

pot is on sale in illinois the ceo of a cannibas company will join us "power lunch" starts right now welcome to power lunch on this first thursday of the new year check out all three of the major indices here the dow up about 200 points with the highs up .63%. the nasdaq composite up three fourth the russell the outlier in the red. this is the semiconductor jumping 1% it's having its best day since december 12th. we'll have more on that later. can this rally keep going in 2020 bob is at the new york stock

exchange looking at the challenges that lay ahead. >> the important thing is we're here but the question is can we sustain it here in 2020. i want to show you how different things were compared to this period last year first off, january 1st the market was pricing in an earnings recession stocks were cheap the recession didn't happen. the economy is still strong but stocks have gotten expensive 18 times forward earnings. that's way above normal. the issue is whether we can return to earnings growth. strategy gis strategists are expecting mid single digit growth here it's about mid single growth for most of these people that would take some of the purchase off the high multiple early reports right now, well, from companies reporting at the end of november kind of on the big side they are seeing first quarter

earnings estimates taken down by analysts after reports some like auto zone and costco have seen increases. leets call it a mixed trend but it's lower than expected we need to get the in your opinions up. liking at the risks in 2020, the markets, they are trade wars it's bit lower because there's a risk of the trade risks are lower. the fed raiding rates decent job growth. there are some major risks out there. buy backs, we have been seeing it for ten years it may be a limit to how far we can go the belief that global growth is bottoming. a lot of people think this will not happen wage growth is not here yet but a lot of people believe we should be having it in the next couple of years. that will be major issue as well let's say right now we have a very mixed picture for the global earnings report we need to get the numbers up bit more in the next couple of quarters

back to you. >> thank you very much, robert our next two guests both say stocks have more room to run a far cry from where we stood one year ago today let's bring in john lynch. welcome. john, and then you kevin what kinds of returns range wise would you expect for the s&p in 2020 john, you first. >> i think bob made a good point. i think the fundamental s have t catch up with the price we saw last year in the fourth quarter. i suspect we'll see by june, get some clarify on phase two at which point we'll raise our earnings estimate. >> kevin let me ask you the same question and do you expect that

much of the gain might take place before we get into the heavy political season summer and fall >> first, we believe we'll see the s&p up 6 to 8% if you have to put a specific target, i would say 34.50 is your target. i do believe we'll get most of the gains early on in the year if we get strong gains prior to the election, you would think the incumbent would stay in office i think the president will do everything he can to keep the market going as far as signing a trade deal and trying to push phase two along as quickly as possible to help the s&p >> there's nothing like launching into 2020 with a sunny outlook. let me ask you about a potential storm clouds there's a note today that the conference board ceo confident

survey mentioned recession is the top concern. these were in interviews that were conducted in september and october before there was a time line on the table for this phase one trade deal on top of that, we have a note today about the continuing liquidity tconcerns does that mar your anticipation for a smooth road ahead? >> when they took that survey not only do we get clarity but we have clarity on the federal reserve. we have clarity about the ecb. there's some monetary policy tail winds and then china overnight. i would think any ceo in year 11 of an economic cycle would be worried about recession. that's their job i do believe that when we look at these fundamentals, if you look at gdp of slightly less than 2%, inflation driven by wages not in a threatening level, producer prices are declining faster than consumer prices arising, we think that's

a good lead indicator. the only threat would be a supply shock if phase two doesn't work out and then you could have a temporary inflation fear that could cause the market to back up before the election >> kevin, one of the things that was odd about 2019 was practically every asset class i can think of with the rare exception whether international stocks, bonds, you made money. it's a question of how much money you made as you look ahead to 2019, are there asset classes that you think are vulnerable and might not make money in. >> well, for starters, fixed incomes, i think in 2020 what we'll see in fixed income is you'll get the income. you're not going to get the appreciation that you saw fixed income have in 2019. we expect yields on the tenure to be in the two to two quarter

range. we feel it's going to probably be anchored there because of the u.s. having a relative yield advantage and the fed being on hold has brought hedging costs down for international b borrowers. we think they will keep it in range bound for 2020 >> thank you very much we appreciate your insights on this first trading day of the new year john, same to you. >> thank you an incredible escape from japan to beirut and who master minded it? carlos ghosn said it was his plan alone to escape from japan. phil has the latest details on this saga. phil >> this is the second time we have heard from carlos and there's been a number of twom developments over the last couple of days first of all, the pilots, turkey has arrested pilots who are suspected of being lyinked with

mr. ghosn being flown out of japan. they have not been charged he did enter with a french passport which raises questions, didn't his attorneys have all his passports. police raided his home in japan looking for more clues and answers as to how he have able to get away. because he's heard a number of the immediate wra repomedia rep his wife orchestrated the whole thing, he said i alone arranged for my departure my family had nothing to do with it it's been a wild 13 months since carlos was arrested in japan he's lost leadership of nis is a, spent most of his time in jail or under house arrest we'll probably hear from carlos next week. that's the expectation int interpol did put out a red

notice thaths saying to the government this is a person who we would like to see questioned. whether or not lebanon says, okay, we're going to question carlos ghosn or ignore this, that remains to be seen. >> here japan said you're prohibited from talking to your wife one would think if you're under house arrest and you have that kind of prohibition that they are monitoring your communications how could plan like this be master minded if there was monitoring going on? >> that's why people are saying, look, he had to have had some help from within he couldn't have just -- my communications were being monitored. the question becomes who inside japan assisted him with this plan to get out of the country this wasn't something that just happened overnight this took extensive planning and carlos ghosn because he was held

since november of 2018 with little contact was not charged, likely wasn't going to trial until maybe the spring of 2021, i think. you read his first statement, he said this is ridiculous. it's a rigged justice system i'm not allowed to speak for myself nor allowed to face the charges in court i need to do something in order to prove my snens. >> i read somewhere he did not have internet access except when at his attorney's office have you seen that as well >> yes >> i would suspect a fair amount of the suspicion in questioning will be of his attorneys >> absolutely it will be the attorneys said i have his passports and then one of the reports today out of japan is did you know he had a second french passport? the attorney said i have a lock and key and i'm supposed to have control of that. the kind of answer that makes you say what did you know and what didn't you know and if you really were concerned that he

might be a flight risk, shouldn't you have alerted the authorities. those are all questions being asked in japan now >> thank you very much coming up, 2019 was supposed to be the year of the pot stock. didn't work out that way illinois now the 11th state to legalize weed and we'll talk to one ceo banking on bud we're not talking beer peleton is riding high into the new year, up 4% thanks to some bullish comments the analyst who made that call will join us, next if you listen to the political debate in this country, it sounds like we have a failed society. but nothing could be further from the truth. americans are compassionate and hardworking. we aren't failing. our politicians are failing. that's why i'm running for president. to end the corporate takeover of the government. and give more power to the american people. that's how we'll win healthcare,

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ithat car is one of mine. and soon, it's going to be one of theirs. but they would have never even known it existed. if it weren't for the power of targeted tv advertising. it's smart. it grabs people's attention. it works. it's why comcast spotlight is changing its name to effectv.

because being effective means getting results. welcome back peleton is getting some love on wall street. the firm says a favorable trading set up, healthy earnings and improving margins will drive the stock. shares of peleton down 20% over the last month rebounding this week though. is peleton due for a pop do you think the sell off is over from december >> we do we see a good trading opportunity which is what we highlighted this morning really to step back we were one of the first on the street to initiate coverage with an out perform rating back in october

the stock has worked since then. we've had a bullish view of the long term opportunity. really today i wanted to highlight what we see as a compelling short term trading idea it's based on three things first, we think the 20% pull back relative to the market in december really did not reflect any fundamental concerns third we think there could be more post side holiday when you look at brand awareness and publicity during the month of december and match that up with the typical lead time that it takes for consumers to make big ticket purchases we think there could be strong upside post holiday. it's those factors combined along with our positive longer term use >> are you saying that you think people will go out like new year's resolution and all of that and now they will buy

peleton? >> that's right. if you look at typical seasonality, more than two-thirds of net member adds come in the second and third fiscal quarters, december and march quarters we see strong upsides for both of those quarters. it's partly why we out lined a pretty bullish upside case for the year in total. >> i have to guess that even despite the price point and i've in full disclosure, i bought one over the holidays. i think they'll show a picture of my good sport wife on the peleton. there she is mimicking the ad. >> tdid you get the idea from th ad >> no. i know people here and elsewhere swear by them. as they are advertising extremely heavily this week, this weekend on sporting events and so forth, you almost can't get away from their ads that they will have a wave that follows through into january and

beyond >> that's right. if you look at some quantitative measures behind whether it's search interest online or the number of ads, you have seen an enormous and unprecedented amount of activity around the brand during the december quarter. we think that can drive upside for the quarterand going forward. that's a key factor behind our positive call. >> let's stipulate that no one on earth need, i mean needs a $2200 exercise bicycle you can put on a $50 pair of shoes and get an equivalent work out. >> well it is interesting for less than $100 per month that a household can have two members subscribe with a bike fully financed that lines up pretty attractively when you look at the studio fitness concepts that gain popularity. we could recast the value proposition. i think that's a kwee reason why more than 20% of the ads are

coming for consumers that make below 70,000 >> what about this thing called the mirror you follow that one? you know it. >> there are several that look interesting. i think peleton has opened the market for some finance companies. the mirror being one of them >> all right jonathan, thank you so much. tyler, i got to ask you was this gift to your wife -- >> it was to the household, truly. it was i need it more than my wife needs it by far she was a good sport to let us use that photograph. there she is >> i love it i love it. >> it's up my my office at home. >> it's like when your husband gets you a couple's massage for your birth day it's like this is really for you. >> didn't you read my gift list. there's no gratitude here.

it's fun it's good. it's really good the instructors are both enthusiastic and i hate them at the same time. >> we have them up in the gym upstairs >> so upbeat >> i'm afraid to go up because you're working out with your co-workers and if you fail with the instructor then you failed with your co-workers who wants to do that >> it's a good, fun device the music is good. some of it is explicit you've got to watch that very delicate, i am. coming up, this mystery chart. the best performer last year one trader says the stock will soar even more from here thank you for indulging my peon cveatn. edge-to-edge intelligenceh the, gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from finding out what's selling best... to managing your fleet...

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welcome back to power lunch. the s&p 500's top performer of 2018 and 2019 is kicking off the new year with more gains amd up more than 5% today after a 370% rally the past two years. should you stick with this winner in 2020

let's bring in your trading nation team. todd, is it gets little too rich here in. >> i don't think so. if you go back to 2000 you'll see we have just broken that 20-year period of consolidation. the scene of the crime is about 25 you pull back up to that point, i think it's healthy we get off with this weekly chart and get down to the daily. kind of hone in here a bit you'll see we're in a well established up trend here. i see no reason to fight it. i am long down into the 20s. i continue to hold i'm not looking to hedge one thing i'll note you go out to next january's options. the 65 has huge open interest. somebody wants to buy almost five million shares at 65. watch that and the upside as we start to move into channel

resistance >> all right just your average 20-year range that's run from about two bucks up to 50 bucks and breaking out of it. what about the field position here obviously people really do love the general semi story going into this year >> i think that range is really important. it highlights what a great job ceo lisa sue has done. a lot of this run up has been building off of that momentum she has managed to create. they had solid 2019 q3 numbers with 9% growth they are expected to continue to take market share away from intel. those are all good things. i think the achilles heel continues to be the evaluation the fundamentals are extremely strong >> all right we'll see if they can keep supporting this name up here thank you very much. back over to you ahead, high hopes.

illinois legalizing marijuana sales today. we're speaking to one ceo in the middle of this action. the road to the white house is paved with lots and lots of money. a huge fourth quarter for campaign fund raising. we'll lay out the numbers. wage wars. 24 states raising minimum wage for the year we'll discuss the growing debate, next all this when power lunch returns.

welcome back in an interview with nbc news, defense secretary mark esper spoke about the current situation in baghdad after

pro-iranian militants ladies an gentlemen sag-- ladid siege >> the situation is stiebl iabid we made sure the embassy is secure and safe for the personnel. >> health officials banning most flavored e cigarettes but with major exceptions that benefit retailers, and adults who use the devices. the fda prohibiting fruit, candy mint and desesert but menthol will be allowed to remain on a the market for the third year in a row the mediterranean diet was rated the best overall it focuses on less red meat, saturated fat while increasing

produce, nuts and whole grains you're up to date. back to you. >> there's a diet of the year. this is something that should change >> yes third year in a row it won >> let's just retire the trophy. markets near the high. the s&p 500 is up almost half of a percent as well. nasdaq almost up a percent only the russell in the red today. time now for the first power movers of 2020 disney gaining on continued optimism about disney plus the streaming service seems conservative the company says it won't disclose subscriber numbers until the quarterly report in

february wingstop falling today the company's coo is leaving march 7th. the resignation was not the result of a disagreement between him and the company. evercore dun grading novacure. the stock is up 130% in the past year and that includes today's #% slide just this hour democratic presidential candidate joe biden has announced he raised $22.7 million for his campaign in the fourth quarter that puts the former vice president behind president trump, senator bernie sanders and even mayor pete buttigieg of south bend the biden numbers are a marked improvement from where he had been last quarter. in it's a good number but the question is, is it good enough in this field when you have

bernie sanders raising money online largely from small dollar donors the idea you can raise money in huge numbers from a huge number of people means that bernie sanders has a real advantage here which is his donors aren't maxed out yet. they haven't written the maximum size check allowed under the law. bernie can go back to the donors again and again throughout the year that might represent a real challenge for biden going forward. there's only so many wine caves can that you go do it's hard to raise money sanders is pointing out the new fashion way might be the way to go dplp there's a lot of focus on the democratic side.

>> he can do all this on his own. he has 102 million on hand that's just his campaign we don't have the numbers yet for the rnc, his joint fund raising committee. he has created fund raising juggernaut since he entered the white house. you can see it on display today. you look at bernie sanders, he has solidified his role with the small dollar donors. since 2016 when he lost to hillary clinton he's kept that kept kind of network and coalition around him to continue to give to his campaign in 2020 as he tries to capture the party's mantle >> the trump approaching this campaign different lydifferently >> i think you'll be really happy about this number if you're donald trump. you have the biggest number on

the list he's happy about that. you have a situation where bernie sanders has the staying power to do to joe biden what he did to hillary clinton which is hang around really late. there's no establishment donor that can say for the good of the party you better step aside and let someone be the nominee bernie sanders can hit the donors again and again to say in through the convention that means for trump he's looking at a democratic party that could be as divided in '20 as it was in '16 that's a good thing if you're the incumbent president of the united states because of his electoral approach to this it's almost as if he's running for county commissioner in 11 or 12 different counties that can make an enormous amount of difference where the

democrats will have to be playing on a much different map. >> most of sanders money being raised via internet. >> that's right. most through digital >> as we look at the graphic of the moneybags there. two things stand out, one is mr. yang at 16 million, that's fairly good number of, you would say for a person you would think of in a second tier of candidates >> who nay not end up on a debate stage >> where is elizabeth warren >> that's the question now bernie sanders 36 million. andrew yang, 16 million. just last week we were reporting that elizabeth warren had just over $17 million now say best case scenario she finishes with 20 million, that's still a significant drop from the third quarter. >> one final question, let's say

senator sanders ends the race with the most money on hand and a fair amount of it unspent and he's not the nominee what happens to that money >> that's a good question. traditionally is those candidate vs been able to deploy that in future campaigns so they can sit on it or direct it in smaller sums to other candidates they can donate a lot to the political party. they have a lot options and makes them a powerful person behind the scenes. campaigns run out because the candidate stops being able to raise money. that's where you have to look at some of these candidates below the first tier and say will they be able to raise enough money to stay in this thing i think with this number bernie sanders is democrating he has the capacity biden is the fropnt-runner and you have surprises like pete who

is futting up big numbers himself. >> joe biden does have an outside group of super pac that's backing him they have done much better than expected biden also has that going for him. there's also another name we did not mention and that's mike bloomberg. he's always going to be force in this case. he's around fifth place. the numbers i have now, mike bloomberg has spent over $145 million on tv ads alone. that's the total just him. this just for supporting his campaigns and very anti-trump. these are the factors that are playing into this as we go into 2020 going forward >> thanks very much. for more on the 2020 election you can find more at cnbc.com. coming up, money and politics we'll talk about campaign cash we'll talk about apple's milestone plus on the tasting menu an apple milestone. a sure bet and a new year's resolution we don't recommends stay with us at leaf blowers.

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24 states mands other cities and counties are raising their minimum wage for year. five years ago seattle did the same thing hoping to improve conditions for workers the impact of that change have been wide ranging with positive and negative ramifications for workers and businesses kate rogers took a look at some of the laws unsbenintended consequences >> reporter: at dick's drive in the average employee is in their 20s and turnover is low thanks to investment the company makes in workers like offering paid time off and 40 1(k)s as well as

100% employer paid health insurance. it's available to workers regardless of the number of hours they worked. >> we invest a lot in our employees. we expect a lot for them but we invest a lot for them. >> reporter: the company already pays above minimum wage with its seattle location starting at 17 and $18 an hour. as wages increased at restaurants across the city over the last few years, labor costs also rose at dicks the company has to raise its prices for first time in its history based on labor costs alone. in the past food costs have been the driving factor for price hikes. as workers took home more in their paychecks prosecute jasmine said an interesting trend emerged. >> the employeers are choosing lower hours which means i have more employees working part-time hours than i used to it's also harder to get people to pick up hours when people are sick or need to change their schedule for school or family reasons.

>> reporter: seattle's economy has been growing for years since 2015, the number of restaurants is up 5% with annual sales increasing 20% over the same period. in that time, seattle's job growth has out paced the state of washington as a whole with growth in weekly hours slightly lower than the state's average the city's population has increased by 13% but so too has homelessness by 11%. for some, the economy has taken off in way that feels unsustainable. matthew dylan, james periodbear closed his doors as the year ended. while labor costs played into the decision as he pays bovr the minimum wage, so too does his rent which is nearly $16,000 per month including taxes and fees and his ability to pass on costs to customers when his lease came up, he decided it was time to move on >> the wages are going up. the prices up food is going up my property taxes that i have to pay are going up my rent is going up.

my staff or staff that was here that feels like well i can't be in the city anymore so i need to move on. you have to find someone to replace me and that's really hard the cost of that just working through that as a business owner is going up. >> beyond seattle the federal minimum wage stands at $7 an hour that's not been raised the nonpartisan budget office estimated a move could boost pay for as many as 27 million low wage workers but it could cost 1.3 million people to lose their jobs >> 21 states are at 7.25 an hour when you talk to restaurant owners and they say fewer people want hours now they are not willing to jump in and pick up extra hours.

that really seals like an unintended consequence because now you have to ensure more people and offer those benefits to more people >> and it's a tight labor market that is what i thought was so interesting. the restaurant gives you those benefits regardless. people were making more money. there's also other factors that play the gig economy is here. the entire seattle ecosystem was so interesting lit be interesting to see what it looks like in another five years. >> thank you here is a taste of some of the other stories we're following. shares of apple at yet another all time high inching closer to $300 apple is worth more than the u.s. energy sector taken together with a market cap of $1.3 trillion. some big wins this past year in 2019 catapulting the stock including its booming wearable business iphone 11 sale s beat

expectations in the launch of its streaming system this is a company that's clicking on all points >> it's a very good day for the casinos that have facile tills in macow luck may be changing here. mgm in the green today that's because the december revenues came in higher than expected even though they had plunged 13.7% in december from a year ago jeffrey put out a neat that says these head winds like the trade war and the turmoil in hong kong are going to ease and the casino stocks are soaring that drop was because the chinese president had visited macow to mark the 20th anniversary of the hand over from portugal to china and with it came visa tremendous strrests

most people's new year's resolution seem to be about losing weight or being fit the papa john ceo range in the new year by announcing to his instagram followers that he plans to top his record of eating 40 pizzas in 30 days. he looks thin there. his target is 50 pizzas in 30 days unrelated to the news, papa john's stock fell more than 1% today. >> number one, remember i asked papa john ceo whether they changed the process or not because john said after eating those pizzas he decided -- >> it was not as good when he s was running. >> they said nothing has changed. one, there's that. two, if he's going to order all those pizzas maybe she should ge a peleton. >> he probably should but he looks nice and thin there.

illinois became the 11th to legalize marijuana for recreational use lines around the block people were so stoked to get in there. the head of the company that operates five dispsaesenri joins us power lunch will be right back we present limu emu & doug with this key to the city. [ applause ] it's an honor to tell you that liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. and now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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craze, becoming the 11th state to allow sale and purchase of recreational marijuana one company hitting the jackpot, chicago based cresco lab sold more than 9,000 products with an average receipt totaling $135. there's a lot of pot references. >> well done very nice. >> talk to me about new year's day in illinois for your company. how did do you >> you know, incredibly exciting day. you know, decades in the making. it was phenomenal. it was a tremendous amount of support. we had the stores open from 6:00

a.m. to 10:00 p.m. we had people lining up at 8:00 p.m. on new year's eve at some of the stores and, you know, throughout the day hundreds and hundreds of people waiting in line to get through. like i said, we serviced over 3100 customers yesterday >> cresco has 11 licenses in seven states how important will illinois be in the overall portfolio >> it's our home state we're incredibly well positioned here through the existing medical program, you know, owner-operate or100% market penetration, 25% market share. we have three of the 21 existing cultivation licenses only one with three. only one other peer with two and everyone else with one we're well positioned in our home state to take advantage and make use of this new marketplace. >> in what form did most biers

buy? >> it was across spectrum. traditional flower programs. your edibles depending on familiarity, i think you got some consumers who will tend to be in that flower concentrate format and then new year more exploratory consumers, the vape pens and edibles are more approachable. >> are you concerned at all the crackdown on vaping and flavors and what it means for the future of marijuana >> we heard most yesterday was the consumers were very happy to have a safe tested compliance focused product offering they could legally buy in the state of illinois. one of the comments we heard most yesterday that's the benefit of legalized regulate andpliance focused products >> how do you know the products meet a certain quality standard and are quote safe, that's number one

i don't mean to get on any kind of moral high horse do you have any qualms about selling an intoxicant in a world where there's plenty of intoxication already. >> regulated compliance programs like illinois and many of them definitely east of the mississippi they set standards, set quality control standards, set safety standards as it relates to microbial contamination, potencies, et cetera not a single product can leave our production facilities until it's been tested and certified by a third-party lab that's licensed by the state. that's one of the benefits of that regulated cannabis, consumers are coming in to a licensed store and every product that they are buying will have the test results, you know, again as it relates to exactly what's in the product from the potency of the cannabis and any

sort of supplements along with verification that there's no residual pesticides or insolvents left. >> any qualms about selling a product that's another intoxicant >> cannabis has been around for 5,000 years. my box ground of being a regulatory attorney is one of the things i had to address. one thing i knew i had to offer to this developing opportunity in the u.s. was a background in regulatory compliance to make sure this industry was developed in the right way i think we're seeing the benefit of safe, reliable third-party tested products entering into a matter you see the data in most states with regulated cannabis. you have significant reduction in opioid abuse in those states. the data is showing great support for greater access to cannabis products. >> the fat that you have sales tax that's going up as the thc

content end thinks products go up 10% for lower thc, as much 25s% on other thc what does that do to the desire? >> you know, i don't know it has an impact on desire. again it goes by category, by form lower thc products are your traditional flower products. increased potency products are for the more well adjusted and familiar consumers that can handle the higher tolerance and price per millimeter is lower. we haven't seen an impact from that one day of data but we really haven't seen an impact on that graduating tax rate >> thank you very much closing well will follow right closing well will follow right along. so you focus only on what you want.

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i am totally blind. and non-24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. talk to your doctor, and call 844-214-2424. welcome to the "closing bell". i'm courtney regan i'm at the disney post shares higher 2% bullish analyst notes. last year's winners continue to drive higher into the 2020 busy day for research. notes out on tesla, wells fargo and much more. we'll cover it all in the next 59 minutes good afternoon i'm wilfred frost. let's look what's driving the action 2019 sentiment carrying over to