i am totally blind. and non-24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. talk to your doctor, and call 844-214-2424. welcome to the "closing bell". i'm courtney regan i'm at the disney post shares higher 2% bullish analyst notes. last year's winners continue to drive higher into the 2020 busy day for research. notes out on tesla, wells fargo and much more. we'll cover it all in the next 59 minutes good afternoon i'm wilfred frost. let's look what's driving the action 2019 sentiment carrying over to

2020 fresh economic stimulus from beijing adding to the optimism but under the surface the russell 2000 seeing its worse day in a month and we got some mixed labor market data here in the u.s. earlier in the session. we are up 235 points on the dow, near highs on the session for all three major averages joining us paul hickey co-founder of the spoke investment group very good afternoon to you happy new year to you. where do you stan in terms of whether this bullishness is justified. is it easy to pick bullish or bearish as we stand? >> when you look where things stand out, you look at the equity pros and cons which we look at on a regular basis, the pros are balanced with the cons. that doesn't suggest you should be taking a cautious view or just a neutral view implies average returns for the market going forward. and when we look what's going on in the market now, what's happening now, brett hits new

high nasdaq hitting new highs what we follow closer than any other group is semiconductors. semiconductors is the life blood of the economy now they are in everything we use. the semis on a relative basis are hitting record highs as we speak. when they preceded every downturn and rally in the market, they are relatively strength as long as they hit new highs too hard to get overly cautious. >> the tech is the best performing sector. let's focus in on the big stories we're watching mike santoli has his dashboard we have a look at how the market is setting up here and we'll talk china let's begin with mike at the dashboard. >> here's what we have for you in the fast lane where investors have been traveling at least recently in term of the aggressiveness of stocks

shifted to neutral by some measures, the mood among investors is really kind of mixed and not too over bullish along for the ride, the rise of passive investment versus active and then no cash for clunkers. cheap beat up stocks have rarely underperformed so much relative to expensive ones as they have lately first in the fast lane here's a hand full of etf. this is the microcaps. over the last month. that's the high s&p. obviously you see they have all outperformed over the last month. we had this year end sprint and continuing today to some degree although iwc, the microcaps are more mixed over two years, the same four tickers over the last two year and you'll see the s&p 500 has outperformed, actually been mostly defensive in quality type

rally that's gotten us to these new highs. some might argue there's plenty of room here to be made up if, in fact, we can build on this momentum i don't think it's a clear call exactly what the character of this market is right now but the idea that everyone is way out over their skis and overheated and chasing momentum it doesn't bear out except in the very short term >> we talk about the characteristics within the s&p 500 if that's the growth momentum versus the value stocks does that also apply when you look at s&p versus emerging markets or small caps or sort of a different debate in terms of the relative underperformance we're talking about? >> win the s&p it depends on how you define what the very large mega cap growth stocks are they are generally more expensive, not pure value but apple is the biggest holder in the s&p index. they are not deeply cyclical more of a mixed determination in terms of what's driving things

today people are trimming back on some defensive type stocks that did do well in the first two-thirds of last year. maybe just a pent up profit taking in those areas that seem they are a little bit stale based on where the expectations are for the market and the economy right now. >> thank you the s&p 500 is up about half of a percent, very close to 3250 how much further can 2019 monster rally extend into the new year sam, i know you like to look at historical trends, what could that possibly portend for 2020 >> i think we can continue and i think typically good years tend to follow great years. one of the things i like to look at is what kind of disspergs of

was there? whenever we had a below average differential between those two the s&p gained an average of a little more than 13% in the coming calendar year, and the frequency of advance was very, very high. so that sort of implies like a compressed spring we tend to bounce in the following year >> is your positivity based, though, mainly on that backward looking assessment or forward looking factors. what are you focusing on and what needs to arrive >> i looked at history it's a great guide like the singer of the national anthem sometimes it forgets the words. i overlay our economic outlook, fundamental forecast, et cetera, to then say could history repeat itself right now i think prices are leading fundamentals we're only looking at a 7%, 8% gain for all of 2020 but the market is saying look if we're wrong we're probably under

estimating earnings growth >> we were worried last year about an earnings recession which didn't happen but it wasn't robust earnings growth. still we saw the s&p gain 28%. do you really need robust earnings growth to see this market continue to push forward? >> because the market tends to look six to 12 months down the road and it knew we ended up with 23% increase in earnings in 2018 twice the amount that was anticipated at the beginning of the year so when you have a bar that high it's very hard to eclipse that that's why we're looking to be up one half of 1% for all of 2019 so 2020, yeah, you have the expectation for an improvement in earnings, valuations right now are looking a bit stretched anywhere from 9% to 12% overvalued but that could easily be digested either in time or a pull back in prices. >> what's your take in terms of the valuation outlook? do you think it's justified because of where rates are >> rates are lower right now

that does justify lower rates. thing about valuations, we always say there are horrendous timing tool for the matter valuations, if you try to sell when valuations start reaching a certain level you miss the strongest parts of rally when the s&p pe ratio goes over 20 returns are positive going forward and in the ten years where valuation in the s&p pe ratio has been five years above and five years below we were up all ten years the next year. the big question is we talk about interest rates and the question is, everyone is expecting interest rates to stay around 2% right now. what happens if we see rates go to the high 2% or just a shade under 3% can the market handle that i wonder what your thoughts on that are, sam. >> one of the uncertainties is whether we'll see a pick up in inflation which is a driving force of higher interest rates and then the fed instead of being on vacation as you termed it before we went on air, would

have to start saying wait a minute we got to actually take back some of these interest rate reductions i think that's something that would throw investors into a confidence tailspin. >> quick final question. the election which is a fear factor or possible fear factor, you look at it more constructively >> again, history says whenever a republican has come back to re-election the market was higher 100% of the time. of course you're looking at a pretty small observation base, but i think if it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy also if we have a good january in an election year that's always led to a positive full year return >> come back and tell us how things go as 2020 progresses >> absolutely. >>. first-round of easing from chinese bank is supporting the

economy. my first question more on the broad direction of likelihood of getting phase one deal signed are there any wild card factors like hong kong and taiwan that could raise its head in a way to see president xi to pull out of any agreement with the u.s.? >> at this point it doesn't look like at this point hong kong and huawei the chinese and americans want to keep separate. right now it looks to be on track to have some kind of signing. whether or not it's january 15th, still not confirmed. chinese have not said anything officially but, there are a lot of reasons why we see the chinese would want to have a trade deal and the main one is economic when you're talking about this move yesterday or in the past couple of days, we've seen the central bank say that we're going to now require that banks have less cash on hand so effectively we're inrejecting

more liquidity into the system also the import tariffs have been lowered as of january 1st so that helps to spur some spending there are a lot of different moves the government is making to try to prioritize the economy and make sure it's stable. >> we see all the data that comes out of china and you're suggesting things have weakened a bit from these growth days in the past how does it feel in china? does it feel like there's been a pull back even when you watch the consumers in that growing middle class >> these are still big numbers 6% growth figure still not -- not noticeable in that way but definitely the conversations are all about concerns about where the economy is headed. worries about whether or not the numbers are just going to continue to get worse. a lot of people pulling back on spending, concern about being able to borrow money even a lot of complaints i'm hearing in the manufacturing

sector, how there's money that's allocated to help a lot of these maul and medial enterprises they are just not getting the money because banks aren't as professional as the ones here. they don't actually, in this kind of environment when everything is uncertain they don't know necessarily how to make good decisions on credit so the fall back is just not to lend to anybody. >> what about president xi's all powerful status, two or three years ago was the peak of his powers what level of pull back. something very minor or something to keep an eye on? >> he has just continued to gain in power i mean privately some people have complained about president xi maybe taking the country in the wrong direction because the environment is very tight. people don't like to speak up at all. but one of the important initiatives that he as well as the beijing leadership has is prioritizing this 100

anniversary for the communist party's founding which is 2021 that's why there's this emphasis from beijing's leadership to tri-to get the economy somewhat stable because they want to be able to reach their goal in 2021 which was to double the 2010 gdp by 2020 and also to double the income, the per capita gdp by 2021 so they want to be able to say, the communist party want to be able to say we have a moderately prosperous society by that time, which means that they need to continue to have strong growth into this year >> president xi isn't going be the one coming to sign the phase one deal or it doesn't arouse suspicion at all >> from the chinese perspective,

a lot of people see china officials who are negotiating this deal as very powerful people they are powerful people even though, of course, they don't have the same level as president xi it seems as though on the u.s. side they are trying to manage with president trump is trying to manage the expectation that president xi would be the one to sign this deal >> as always, great to speak with you in person safe travels back. still to come the 2010s were a did of transformation. what to do in the '20s aaron levie will tell us what trends to watch for. >> boeing left an opening for airbus we'll discuss the rivalry in the skies coming up next here's a check on our first data tracker initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 222,000 december manufacturing pmi came

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welcome back boeing's saga surrounding the 737 max leaving an opening for airbus to take the crown for of

the of 2019. phil lebeau has that story for us in chicago. >> reporter: since 2011 airbus will top boeing. we'll talk about airbus in a little bit because the number is an impressive one. let's start with where things are with boeing. the holiday break is over. so they basically had all employees got basically from december 23rd all the way through yesterday off. now the assembly line will start firing up again. they still have a number of planes in the process that they are making he yes, they do plan to suspend production likely in a couple of weeks when the last of those planes is through the blue line. the workers are back after returning from holiday break another piece of news on the max, american airlines said it's in talks with boeing over max cancellation compensation. remember it has a number of max models that are grounded that were in the fleet plus those they were supposed to take delivery of. some of that settlement money will be shared with employees. set up similar to what we're seeing with southwest airlines

when they announced that settlement a few weeks back. let's talk about air because and the big number the big number to focus on 863 according to reuters that was how many planes that airbus delivered last year, the projection going into the last month was that they would hit 860. they came up with 863. guys, we've shown you this chart a number of times. take a look at airbus and boeing over the last year no comparison. airbus clearly outperforming because it delivered far more. boeing delivery's down 340, 345. they didn't deliver the max for most of the year and that's why you see a huge difference in deliveries between airbus and boeing >> to go back to your other point in terms of those financial settlements whether southwest, turkish, others to come, sizes coming the through turkish airlines we saw the other day were they expected or bigger settlements with americans and deltas of this

world could it get bigger than people priced in >> reporter: they can get bigger for a couple of reasons. first of all, we don't know the exact amount that hasn't been determined for a number of airlines southwest it's an undisclosed amount and you'll see the same thing with american and united airlines and other airlines as well the reason it can get larger nobody is quite sure when these planes will be flying again. while these agreements are reached they are sort of open ended agreements not as if boeing says that's it, that's the total number of compensation these agreements are written with the understanding it depends when these planes are back in service. >> thanks so much for that just quickly, paul, on the boeing share price the technicals are important >> shocking when you look at the chart. every time they try to sell it down it bounces around the 320 level. i don't know how long it can bounce at these levels without some news when the 737s will come back on and go back in the sky. it's not a name we own

at this point if i owned the stock i would hold it. if you see it move below 300 that could be problematic for the stock. >> this is basically, only two names. how much valuation can you lose? >> that's the argument, you can't shift business to another competitor phil mentions that there's capacity issues. but at some point you just can't say that forever mid-year we're saying the same thing that's a lot more problematic for the stock. >> 345 jets as opposed to more than 700 last year with that max. now we're in 2020. thank you very much. with 39 minutes to go before that "closing bell" sounds the dow is higher by 236 points. that's good for about .8 of a percent. tesla getting a street high price target why that firm says 2020 will be an electric year for elon musk

chinese internet stocks getting a big boost. we'll break wndo the moves in today's market zone. "closing bell" back in a couple. . with a better way to track where you spend. a new level of privacy and security. daily cash you get back every day. and no fees. not even hidden ones. oh, and if you happen to be somewhere that doesn't accept apple pay yet, there's this. nice.

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geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. welcome back to "closing bell". time now to get "word on the street". baird downgraded wells fargo baird maintaining it's $50 price target >> loop capital say contentious

presidential election could place a damper on retail sales and political ad spend will to be higher marketing cost for retailers. s&p retail sector higher by a percent. and canaccord genuity raised their price target on tesla. ed dorsheimer joins us at 4:00 p.m. it tells you more about the market sentiment >> it's a great barometer of risk sentiment on the part of the investment community when tesla rallies the risk is on and people are willing to buy the higher beta stocks once competitors come in and

release their models and their alternative vehicles, it's going to be bedtime for tesla. they have such a head start on everybody that, you know, i think people are under estimating the company not a stock we own continues to doubt the nay sayers >> the other thing i was going to pick up on the downgrade of wells fargo, josh brown picked up on the point, what incentive does the new ceo have to set really aggressive high targets he doesn't have one when he comes out to give his first big update in due course, ie the view this could get worse before it gets better the other thing i would point out, they are not that cheap they have underperformed significantly and they are cheap on the price on the book multiple relative to their own history but not cheap to the rest of america.

so, again, they've had too many years of being away from that historical multiple of their own. >> to your point to what they were saying on the halftime, what incentive is there? january 14th they release earnings in the morning before the open if you do see a knock on the stock because of some, you know, lower guidance, or lower expectations, i think it's a stock to buy we like the financials that's great on any weakness there on earnings i would be buying the stock >> wells fargo essentially flat on that downgrade. coming up a new year it means a new chance to win the last chance trophy we'll get paul's trades ahead. >> aaron levie break down the technology themes for the next decade here's a quick check on braids treasury yields falling. benchmark ten year holding at 1.8%, 1.875% at this moment. "closing bell" will be right

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little less than 30 minutes left to go before "closing bell" sounds here are the top three things driving the action the dow, s&p and nasdaq set record highs to kick off 2020. tech leading the rally russell 2000 seeing its worse day in a month as we got mixed labor market data. asylum for news up date with sue herera here's what's happening at this hour. the machete attack at a rabbi's home at shooting at a church show how vulnerable worshippers are. new york congressional members urged churches to apply for federal grant money. >> what's happening here in new york is happening across the country. it's time that we as members of congress say enough is enough.

we are not going to stand for anti-semitism. >> vanguard says it will no longer charge commissions on line trading of stocks and options. the industry giant has been offering free commission free trading of vanguard's etf since 2010 and eliminated commissions on all other etfs in the industry in 2018 and nba teams holding a moment of silence for david stern who died on wednesday from a brain hemorrhage stern guided the league for 30 years from 1984 to 2014. turning it into a global multi-billion industry david stern was 77 years old you are up to date that's the news update at this hour back to you. thank you very much. let's sends it over to mike santoli for the second installment of the dashboard >> a shift into the formal wall

street outlook on stocks traders have gotten a little overexcited that they are expecting more the strategy group keeps this sell side indicator. it's the percentage of recommended equities in a portfolio. so what you sheer is on the upper band when people recommend very high equity allocations, it's a potential sell signal and then in the green if you actually are down below around 50% equities that's low on the scale it says perhaps buy. here we are right around in the middle couple of observations there's not a lot of traffic in these asset a location recommendations. in the '90s it might have been a bigger deal. we've not gotten above 55, 57% recommended for this entire bull market we've had down 15, down 20% moves. clearly doesn't have to get to that upper band to have a rough spot but nobody is expecting

great things at least on paper from stocks this year. take a look at individuals this is the latest weekly aaii survey 41%, very unusually high have no idea about next six months for stocks. a little confused. perhaps they are hesitant to project that ahead on the other hand, this is quite low. the number of bears around 20% for the last four weeks on average. that's about as low as it gets you shouldn't be surprised if we get short term bump or turbulence that shakes out the complacency down the road. >> thank you so much now the 2010s were a huge decade of transformation in the tech world. what should investors watch as we kick off a new decade joining us now is aaron levie co-founder, chairman and ceo of box.

thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> i want to kick off on the theme of regulation. cloud is as fundamental as to how the world runs as the electric grid and railroad it's almost inevitable we'll have to be regulated going forward. what's your take as to the time frame of when you change the word, becoming to being established and therefore regulation having already arrived? >> i mean i think we could definitely debate that already, starting january 1st you have ccpa which came into effect which mostly focus on consumer companies collecting data about person and individual and consumer information, but all that data is being stored in large clouds in many cases and so what you're seeing whether it's the consumer technology space being regular late which will bleed into the cloud

market, or as you're seeing industry transformation happening in health care and financial services, and in life sciences all that technology that's powering those digital transformation efforts will be in the cloud and that's going to cause governments and more, you know, agencies around the world to start to pay a lot more attention to this infrastructure and how important it is to powering how the world works, whether it's your medical device or self-driving car. so i think ultimately we'll see that there's really important need to make sure we regulate, that we ensure privacy of data that's stored in these cloud environments, and that we ensure a high degree of interop interoperability we're in the early stages and on the cusp of seeing more regulation and legislation in this space

>> regulation always has unintended consequences. how fearful are you this tug of regulation that will over the long term play into the hands of your biggest competitors >> we've seen huge case studies of that exact effect happening in health care, in aerospace where you see a concentration of incumbent power due to regulation and it makes it even harder for new start ups to enter the market and that's a huge concern and that's actually what some silicon valley venture capitalist are debating. if you overregulate the big companies then it might actually almost codify their control of the market conversely if you don't do any regulation at all, then that power will remain unchecked by the government and you might have an equal amount of unintended queens because of that this is an important debate.

i think the debate will take place for the coming year. i don't believe we'll know the answer to this in the next couple of years. what we do know these cloud platforms, consumer technology platforms, internet in general will look very different in five to ten years from now in terms of how the government really react and begin to regulate these technology platforms >> aaron, it seems to me the california consumer protection act is very monumental when it comes to data protection and privacy for courtrooms i know it's, obviously, in place in california. but if you have now the power as a consumer to say show me google what data you have on me, okay now that i see it delete it. that has to be a major, major issue for google as far as losing valuable data >> i think it's a massive concern. there's huge product implications business model implications on this obviously, starting out in

california but not too complicated to see how that would scale throughout the country. we need the to think about this on a federal basis, not necessarily state by state regulations which would make these products and even the consumer experience completely unwieldy in terms of being able to manage there. there will be huge business model implications if users have the ability to revoke access to data that begins to challenge the very nature of an advertising or consumer based business model. i think this will cause the ultimate test for consumers to really make the decision and say, is the value we're getting from these services worth possibly some of the data that we're giving up. actually, generally i think most consortium will make that trade because of the fact these experiences we're gets and consumer applications we're using do bring a lot of value to our lives. but i think adding that layer of control, that layer of transparency, that layer of visibility will be an incredibly important step to rebuilding trust with consumers, and then ultimately giving them the

choice of what happens with their data >> aaron, tell us about box. what's the response been to its launch and how important will it be for you guys? >> i think a lot of this conversation is obviously about the consumer technology market which affects facebook and google and others. but if you think about the enterprise market where corporations are still going through a massive wave of digital transformation, moving their data to the cloud, beginning to collaborate in new ways, sharing information in and outside of their enterprise, we see a massive opportunity to completely rethink the security and privacy model of how companies can manage and share their most important information. we launch that technology called box shield what that's about is bringing intelligence to how data gets secured in the enterprise. as you have information being shared between companies and teams, being able to detect events or behavior that might be a little bit strange or unusual, alert thesecurity team or aler the user that something might be

happening in giving them extra controls on protecting their information that's what box shield is very focused on. when you think about the past couple of years of really, really severe and substantive hacks we've seen in the enterprise market a lot of those challenges come down to corporations not having visibility in what's happening with their data while it's happening in real-time or giving the users the ability to protect that information it could be mission critical information. could it be jet engine design files. but that ability to protect all that mission critical information in the cloud as companies are sharing it is what we're focused on at box and box she would. we're seeing great early momentum the product was just lunched about two, two and a half months ago so we're in the very early stages of deaf employiploying i customers. this is a great sign of what the market is looking for. >> aaron, thanks so much for

joining us happy new year to you. >> you too we have just about 19 minutes left to go before that "closing bell" sound we'll see if we get record closes but up next we got your last chance trade paul is looking at one stock that's up more than 100% this past year. stay with us ♪ ♪ ♪ don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg.

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we got just 15 minutes in trade. so paul what is your last chance trade for us here today? >> this is an interesting stock. a stock most people never heard of it's a start up. backed by berkshire hathaway backed by the walton family. >> we never heard of it >> it's called stoneco they are basically the square of brazil evenand emerging markets they have great customer service. like all these other start ups they are profitable unlike those other ones it trades at about 50 times earnings which is pretty steep but they grew revenues last year at 86% they are growing like crazy. they had great backers behind them one of the themes we're talking about this year is emerging

markets doing better all their business is in brazil. great growth great play on emerging markets the stock was up 100% in the last year. it peaked last march, sold off on some competition concerns but trading higher sense if it breaks out to the high 40s nothing but blue skies ahead >> a great pick. it's the front-runner to win the trophy there's your last chance trade. today 14 minutes left in the session. uninterrupted coverage of this final part of the trade. we'll take you inside the close bell we're set for all-time record closing highs. tom: my mom always told me

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welcome back 11 minutes left in the trading session. we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. commercial free coverage mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading today today we have paul hickey. let's kick things off with seema modi >> reporter: a number of chinese tech stocks listed here in the u.s. are trading sharply higher after the chinese central bank kicked off the new year by cutting the bank's reserve requirement ratio and injecting more cash into its economy the wall street view is that this will bode will for the consumer in china especially if the central bank continues to unleash new measures

the key test will be the chinese lunar new year at the end of this month that will tell us whether the stimulus effect is incentivizing the chinese to spend more despite a broader slow down of the economy. >> thank you very much paul, when we look at the emerging markets more broadly or chinese internet stocks here specifically what do you make sort of the historical trends and where we're going in this new year >> emerging markets as mike was mentioning in the last dashboard, they underperformed in the last two years. they have been good in the short term last year we came into the year, a lot of people including ourselves thought would outperform and they didn't already if we've seen the dollar weaken i want will be very good and fuel for an emerging market rally. we recommend you have a little bit of overweight. shy away more from china and focus on other area of the

emerging marketplace, latin america. >> while the need in china is not good, the manufacturing survey, above 50 it's a little below expectation but shows we're a long way from the worst fears. >> did nothing to knock off the course that activity is bottoming in china so the chinese internet stocks between stimulus, trade truce and this general sense we have a high liquidity environment makes sen sense trade will morning >> amd was top performing stock in 2019 and one wall street firm is remaining bullish josh lipton has a break down >> reporter: amd kicking off 2020 just where it left 2019 in the green here amd took the gold last year in the s&p 500 with a surge of 148%, it's best year since 2016. saw a big surge in q4 up nearly 60%.

amd keeps moving they raised their price target from 58 to 40 expecting the company to launch new products for 2020, continuing market share gains, asp increases, revenue growth still most analysts are now on the sidelines. 55% rate amd a hold. back to you. thanks so much mike, whether it was down this, tech is the clear leader today and the whole sector >> within tech and also by the winners type day if you look at big cap tech. amd had two incredible years coming off pretty depressed positions. seems like the market is not really deviating from the story. >> paul earlier you said the semis are key to the market. led last year up 140%. another 7% today on this note. >> the stock has been a monster. taking share from intel. they have a lot of feet in

different areas of the semi spot. in this last downturn the depth of the downturn wasn't nearly as severe as we typically see and that's, you know, leading some investors to belief the sector is less cyclical and more of a steady grower. semis are, again, the life blood of the economy and life blood of the market >> bank of america and rosenblatt security issuing caution on disney. rosenblatt increasing their estimate up to 25 million subscribers by the end of the quarter. mike we talk all the time about disney and the run it's had. what a big 2019. some we knew with the blockbuster movies. didn't know about the pricing structure for disney plus until it launched. full steam ahead >> it appears that way what i'm interested in is exactly how long the stock will

trade. stillit's not that big a financial boost. just because of the vast size of disney just shows they got it figured out. they are quasi bundle with hulu plus and disney plus it's got a lot of sponsorship in the market interesting to me people want to believe, they want to say disney has it figured out and sometimes the consensus gets it right. >> should mention the dow is up 300 points off session highs, more full percent. we're set for a record all time closing high for the three major averages dow and nasdaq up more than 1% shares of fedex rising on a report director of the company was buying shares until the end of the store >> reporter: shares of fedex trading more than 2% higher following reports that the director bought million half million dollars worth of shares on december 20th days after the company missed earnings estimates

the stock fell double digits and the price fell to multi-year lows u.p.s. began seven day delivery yesterday. u.p.s. falling three quarters of a percent criticizing the company's ecommerce strategy saying the undertaking is massive and expectations are likely too high. it's difficult to assume a significant step up in domestic incremental margins in 4 q from 3 q. >> where do you stand? room for improvement >> fedex is just, you know, sentiment is so negative we don't own either of the names. i would pick fedex because sentiment is so washed out on it they talked about amazon losing that business, a marginal impact on the company amazon is a competitor in that space delivering i think that's going to pull business from both u.p.s. and

fedex at this point. so neither of the two names were really eager about >> between two stocks it's been stark to see the difference between fedex and u.p.s. >> years ago it wasser to way. fedex was going one way and u.p.s. going the other way >> seeing momentum in the close? >> we are. it's turned around some internal indicators part of the story earlier in the day while the indexes were up, market breadth was not they are to the positive side. kind of pulled it out of the negative seemed like there was a little bit of undercurrent of profit taking happening along the average stock earlier in the day. that has turned around around 3:00 people decided it was time to put money to work for the year do want to point out small versus large cap because that has been a theme into today as well in january typically you get a rotation in small. opposite today a performance in the russell by

a percentage point that's been better than it was ten year yield, really down a little bit and still at the top of its range and that's kind of interesting to keep watching see if you can get any momentum. >> positive open because of the lead we got from china, the easing europe was a very strong session as well. even though the data wasn't great and even though we had a very weak euro and pound because of that data but where stocks decided to take that as a positive particularly with exporter the dollar up half a percent today but hasn't derailed the broader stock sentiment. s&p in particular has picked up momentum in this last 15, 20 minutes or so. only up 0.4% now has double, 0.8% let's get to the nasdaq which is up more than 1%. >> reporter: part of the reason the s&p, dow and nasdaq are higher is this sustained move to

the upside in shares of apple which just broke above $300 a share in the last ten minutes. a new record high on the first trading day of the year for the tech sfok as wall street trains to quantify the opportunity in 5g and wearables apple building on the gain it ackward in 2019. the bar is high. tesla grabbing attention new report planning to deliver its second batch of their cars, a factory that was billed last year not only as an opportunity to capitalize on the electric market but the speed at which it's bringing these vehicles to market down bob pisani at the stock exchange >> as we take a look at new hire right across the board we had a surge of buying in the last 20 minutes or so.

dow jones industrials average. china reduced the bank of reserve ratios once again. want to point out general electric big mover today up 6% on very heavy volume somebody wants ge. again going out right at the highs of the today dow jones industrials average up 128 points good afternoon let's check in where the markets finished record territory to the dow, s&p and nasdaq russell missing out today trading down 0.1%. ferocious buying in the final 15 minutes of the session s&p up 0.85% dow up 1.2%. nasdaq 1.3%. session highs at the close

record close >> tech leading us higher once again today. joining us to talk about the market day, chief equity strategist at credit suisse. paul hickey is still with us as well as mike santoli >> there's a tradition of last few years of pretty strong first gains. whether it means for the rest of the month or year or not, but i think it was looked at not overthinking it. just the strength all day in mega cap tech, microsoft, apple names seemed to drag sentiment in definitely going a push-pull between hey we have deferred profit taking that has to happen as you get to a new tax year against that it's just new year flows. i don't think we want to extrapolate from what happened we're in an upfriend been in an upfriend for four months goodyear nothing that disturbed that idea we're basically kind of

reembracing tech >> tech's really surged. >> it did seem like a rotation into some cyclicals. we got to see if that's more than mechanics >> jonathan what's your take on this first trading day of the year in terms of how we're set up for the year ahead? >> i think we should extrapolate this return for the whole year i think the real story is not what happened today, in all seriousness. it's a fact the market has been doing incredibly well not only all of last year but particularly really since labor day over the last four months and really an optimism that the economy is going to be picking up a little bit of steam we had good news coming out of china. i think this is a continuation of a really strong run that we've now had for a while. >> and paul what do you make of what we just saw here today this really strong winners keep winning, this lift into the

close with the new sentiment survey that came out where investors are actually kind of more neutral than bullish. >> the last two weeks all we heard is wait until january 2nd. it's a new year. people will take their profits it didn't happen i think at this point you can say people aren't in if people are so eager to lock in profits they would be doing it on the first day of trading biggest stock in the world, biggest gainer in market cap was apple. stock is up $6 today stock has outperformed the market on a day when people were expecting investors would take profits. in that respect you have to -- as mike was saying don't overthink it the market has been in a steady uptrend. until you see signs of weakening internals which we haven't seen or key groups underperforming like the semis you have to ride it while you can >> very if you pullbacks the rally has been kind of orderly and taking it in small bites. if we do get this to continue

for a little while as jonathan is predicting, i think that that's when it becomes an unstable thing that's what happened in early 2018 we haven't seen anything like that >> jonathan talk to us about the outlook for rates and what it means in your eyes for multiples and do you think rates could spike during the course of the year >> i'm a little bit surprised by the relationship between interest rates today and the market where you typically see when you have a market, anticipates day this strong, interest rates go higher because it's a sign of economic strength, perhaps more inflationary pressure along with that extra demand and you get both the market rates moving in the same direction and you didn't see that today. my belief is that we'll continue to see this trend probably through the end of the first quarter beginning of the second quarter, and you'll see the economic indicators moving along with that and drag rates through 2% on the ten year treasury.

from that point, those i think it's going stall out a little bit more >> what about the dollar fall? do you think we'll start to see -- today was up about half of 1%. do you think that would derail stocks if it continued >> the rally in the dollar it's just a matter of which areas are going to lead. but i think if you see interest rates or the dollar, a sharp steady higher move it's going bad for stocks going forward slow and steady, like the rally has been is perfectly fine from an investor's perspective. those big movers you should start to worry >> the dogs of the dow, one strategy picking and buying and holding the highest ones beating the dow by one percentage point a year and trailing the broader index three years out of ten i guess, mike, this all depends on whether you're buying something that's got high in growing yield --

>> the strategy says buying a high yield and the margin of out performance over the decade has basically just between higher initial yield. in other words, these stocks didn't necessarily on a price basis do better. whether you think this is a good call right now is, is it a value and reverting market or a growth and momentum type market because if it's the latter than hard to say as a group these stocks, these ten stocks with the highest yield often with the cheapest pes will necessarily be the leaders. >> you got these stocks in the dow, that are some big winners like apple and all these stocks we sort of feel you can. have a rally unless you have some of these names. >> their share price are so high in the dow two new ones, to the dogs in the dow are 3m and walgreen's. two stocks out of favor those two. the industrials if you see a rebound 3m is a good buy >> what's your view? >> i'm not sure where i would

focus. i think, the question we're getting from investors is how much of the reversal we've had away from value is over? we think that we probably have a little bit more to go but we think smaller cap stocks are probably going to be the place to play over the near term and as the year progresses we probably get large caps move back into favor as well as growth >> what do you make, paul, when we're thinking about the fed the fed has been so supportive in 2019 of this market we think the fed will "today" neutral. maybe one move on interest rates. but they could change course they did very quickly in late 2018 as well, right? >> right if the fed stays true to their word and does nothing this year and we see steady growth and the market holds up and they don't try to take the punch bowl away that's great we head into 2019 that they were going hiking rates and balance sheet reduction on auto pilot.

neither happened they've been known to turn on a dime before. could it happen. something to watch for so, you stay with us we'll get back to pi miss. he has a look at the biggest winners in 2022 fir0 first day f trade. >> metal companies had effect. aluminum corporation of china which trades down here at the nyse up 3% a and huge global copper mining company had a huge day big rally we saw in december in retailers ended today essentially. dillard's is down. kohl's is down l brands down. chi chico is down. >> in terms of performance we saw in those industrials towards the end is that an encouraging

sign of expectation ever big economic growth? >> it's consistent with the message the market has been trying to send we have credit conditions as strong as they've been, clearly no real macro strength evident there. people relative to semis, which is a brand of industrials, they probably seem to have a little bit of catch up to do. yes, i do think it's consistent with the global story when you see global pmis, you know, purchasing manufacturing index, bottoming they should work the problem, i think, is exactly how much is that popular trade >> europe's pmi 46.3 highlighting the predicament of the eurozone economy what's your outlook for global growth and whether we're seeing economies like the eurozone pick up a little bit of steam >> first, we're not really looking for growth to be brilliant but you are seeing a turn in the industrial part of

the economy. this is not a consumer story and we think it will be much stronger outside of the u.s. where the economies have been much weaker. while we really like u.s. stocks we think non-u.s. and emerging market will lead throughout the course of the year and in that kind of environment where you see stronger non-u.s. growth the dollar is going to get stronger and a stronger dollar will not be a problem unless it becomes problematic stronger which we don't think it will be >> great market conversation kick-off trading in 2020 thank you for joining us coming up next, canaccd or genuity setting new records.

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>> tesla up 3% after can accord raised its price target. that's the highest target now on the street let's bring in the analyst behind that call ed, thanks for joining us. i'm interested given this very bullish price target your forecast for deliveries is only

fractionally ahead of guidance where do you get this price target from that's so clearly ahead of the rest of the pack? >> our price target is 27 times of our eps for '21 which is a discount the growth. besides that when we look at this is really a momentum driven stock. if we look at the momentum coming into this year, we see several positive factors that we frankly didn't have last year. so when we look at that and we kind of add up what they are going to be introducing, and the fact that many of the signals are not there this year, that's really what gives us our bullish stance on a very positive secular trend as a backdrop too. >> so momentum is one thing but, of course, a number of fundamentals here that you're looking at toe drive tesla forward, no pun intended here. let's talk a little bit about

what your expectations are for tesla in china because that's a big headline, particularly as of late with the production >> yeah. so you've got a gig factory that opened in china. they are delivering or manufacturing and delivering 1,000 cars per week right now over there the model 3 is subsidized in china. that's one much our positive points here is we think you're going to, if you look at the u.s. we'll start moving from a u.s. centric to more of a global perspective. we've got the model y that will be released. the semi-truck that will be released domestically. china that's only going to be increasing we think that combination of local production with incentives domestically there is going to drive upside >> but, i guess, jed, going back to theme of my first question if you're not massively upgrading your earnings estimates and i

get your point it could be positive news to keep the momentum going are your essentially saying this is not based on fundamentals overall the upgrade, you always had a buy, congratulations on that but the share price blown by your original price target. is this an upgrade in the price target to keep your bi >> i don't think that's the case frankly, we were at a hold coming in to 2018. we upgraded in february at $305, which was largely driven by macro and a roller coaster ride in '19 for us with this particular name. but you have some analysts losing $3 of earnings and 1440 in earnings for this year. you have such a massive dissperdi dispersion if you getter to our numbers this has a lot of upside

numbers. it's still a discount to growth at 27 times where we have 33 times in terms of the growth >> there was a lot of headlines made over the cyber truck, of course, but that's not the only new introduction the model y is coming and has a shared platform. roughly 75% of components it shares with model 3 with model y and x. the cost much better from an investment standpoint for the model y than southeast previous models that have come out of tesla. >> yeah. the big bear thesis for last year was their ability to service their debt and the profitability or lack thereof in the beginning of the year. they got through that and what we've seen recently is a massive upside in the or significant upside compared to consensus with respect to profitability. a large part of that is attributable to the three.

when we look at the combination of three when we look at china combined with the y shared platform that should result in greater margins and i think that, that's going to put a lot of the bears or that's going to put a lot of concerns at ease here and move things closer to our numbers. >> thank you for joining us. you have a price target of 515 on tesla >> nfl releasing final viewership including a huge increase in digital viewers. >> reporter: that's right. nfl just releasing the latest numbers saying digital viewership of the league all throughout the season was up 51% compared to a year ago that number 487,000 viewers on average per-game half a million of course goes in line with the 16.5 million total viewers we saw a big year for the league. 5% on the overall numbers and

51% increase on those digital streaming numbers. we know that's where the growth is in the future back to you. >> thanks so much. mike, clearly the digital growth very strong. low base about half a million relative to 16 or 17 million total a lot of slack still to pick up. >> without a doubt i also think even on traditional tv viewership the nfl has obviously come back very well and sort of solidified its status as some of the only must watch linear tv there is >> we have breaking news for you on a break up. >> reporter: lumina and announced deal of pacific biosciences, the company says they have agreed to end that deal because of the lengthy regulatory approval process and continued uncertainty of the ultimate outcome the companies

say. lumina will pay a break up fee of $98 million they announced this deal last november a couple of weeks ago ftc filed to block the deal saying lumina was continuing its monopoly. guys, the stock had not trade up to the value of the deal at 1.2 billion. investors were not totally continues vinced it was not going to get done and it's not >> does this flash any warning signs for any potential deals out on the landscape >> reporter: that's a good question we saw a couple of deals with a real delay in terms of getting done spark therapeutics was one so folks have been wondering if regulators have been digging more into these deals. we'll see if there's any worries

on others. we'll bring them to you. up next, we'll break down the charts to see how the continued rise of passive investing is impacting management industry. and how seattle $15 minimum wage ordinance is hurting some workers who it was designed to help do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. the dow, the s&p, the nasdaq all higher dow added more than a percent as did the nasdaq composite we saw some strength going into the close in those final minutes. russell however did underperform it lost just about .1 of 1%. we'll send it over to mike santoli with his third dashboard of the day and third of 2020 >> more investors than ever decide to go along for the ride when they invest which means buy the index and passively get exposure to the market there's a wells fargo note upgrading blackrock. included this chart in the

trend. etfs is on top growing share. below that is passive mutual funds. together they are almost half. about 41%, 42% i believe it is of all retail assets are now passively managed. you know it's hard to see this trend changing this has been a very, very consistent trend basically people are going for low cost this idea that it's very difficult or impossible to consistently beat the market maybe kit go too far in certain market environments but right now it's not bearing out there's challenges with fees going down for managed products. take a look at this chart of the big asset managers blackrock has been the, almost the best performer blackrock has 7 trillion in management not all passive. franklin resource got a downgrade as well as invesco

trow has performed right in line with blackrock it's not about passive or fixed income it shows if you have a brand, a process a secure hold on investors and financial advisors you can make it work if you keep costs manageable down the road who knows maybe trow is an acquisition >> if you have scale if you don't look to the aberdeen, not as good as blackrock. but they've survived by acquiring scale. other ones stating the obvious which had the best performance in the private equity companies last year taking off >> exactly that's the next frontier private equity is where a lot of end investors believe there's still an edge or you have to pay up to access private margins >> okay. mike, thanks so much up next the great escape we'll have the latest details on

nissan chairman carlos glon flight from japan and how thrts are trying to get him back >> find out if surging stock prices helped surge auto prices in the move december "closing bell" will be right "closing bell" will be right back ♪ ♪ everything your trip needs for everyone you love. expedia.

time for cnbc news update with sue herera. here's what's happening at this hour. senator elizabeth warren campaigning in new hampshire on a day some of her presidential

rivals announced impressive fundraising totals led by bernie sanders. she was asked about her own fundraising. >> they will be out soon and i'm deeply grateful over tory single person who contributed to my campaign i didn't spend one single minute selling access to my time to million inju millionaires and billionaires. >> a woman on a cruise was helicoptered off the ship and taken to hospital where she's reported to be in stable condition. >> amazon employees say the company is threatening to fireworkers to publicly pushing to it do more to fight climate change amazon employees for climate justice said the company sent letters to members telling them that they could be fired if they continue to speak to the press

you are up to date that's the news update that hour courtney back to you >> thank you very much former nissan chairman carlos ghosn issuing his first statement since his escape from japan. phil lebeau has the details. >> reporter: it's a remarkable story. everybody is asking how did carlos ghosn get out of japan. was this an arrangement, an escaped arranged by his wife carol and friends who were outside of the country carlos ghosn today issued a statement saying no my wife carol had nothing to go this i alone arranged for my departure, my family had no role whatsoever meanwhile in japan police there have raided the home where he was staying, looking for clues and evidence that might tell them exactly how he was able to get out of the country without anybody noticing and in beirut outside of the home where carlos ghosn is at, well there's a lot of press there, trying to figure out exactly when we might hear

from carlos ghosn as they stake out his house there in beirut. interpol has issued a notice regarding carlos ghosn the way this works this isn't an arrest warrant this is interpol telling the lebanese government they would like to question or have some questions for carlos ghosn why he's up there and it's up to the lebanese government what it does with that notice it's not an arrest notice so that's the latest with carlos ghosn. still more questions than details in term of how he was able to get out of japan >> phil, justin last hour or so a new story i think you've seen this posted from the "new york times" suggesting he met with a film producer in just the last days or week before his escape which i guess sort of speaks to what his mindset about this, what he felt was a pretty extraordinary hollywoodesque story that he would have to face >> reporter: that headline makes it sound sexy like he's thinking

tient movie star that was part of it. if you read the entire article part of a number of meetings that carlos ghosn held while in japan with people who he believed could give him greater insight into two things. one his odds of winning a canes japan. and two, influencing the public perception in japan to help him win that case. and it's pretty clear when you read this article that by the end of december carlos ghosn was convinced he not going to win a case in japan,s he was going the to be on trial over an extended period of time well into 2021 and that leads insight why he jumped bail and to get out of japan. >> fascinating stuff, phil thank you for your update and continuing to keep us abreast of all these developments it's tricky to follow and said hollywood twist plot up next the fda is vaporizing the sale of some pods the impact on the industry

straight ahead >> seattle's minimum wage hike is having unintended consequences for businesses and workers. we'll look at the fallout next on "closing bell". - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished, (group cheering) snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelor's degree. - [woman] it doesn't matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. - [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu.edu doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand.

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the fda issuing a ban on some flavored vaping products. >> reporter: the ban is on fruity and mint flavors of cartridge based e-cigarettes a steeply compromised version ban. it allows menthol flavor to stay on the market and exempt open tank systems like those sold in vape shops the move comes as the administration tries to gate handle on two vaping crisis unfolding. an epidemic of youth e-cigarettes and a spate of more than 50 deaths tied to vaping. administration dialed the ban

back under pressure from pro vaping groups saying it would cost jobs and votes for trump. anti-tobacco groups argue leaving any flavors on the market would encourage underage use. >> this is a complicated issue and a lot of changes and ebbs and flow but i thought juul pulled these flavored products from the market. >> reporter: the fda commissioner made that point that juul pulled fruity and mint flavors from the market and mint flavor 70% of their sales that was a pretty big move for them their company still had flavors on the market. this actually could be good for juul in that it essentially is the same for juul but worse for its competitors. juul could pick up share on this >> another point that we've heard was the fda didn't act

sooner because they hoped states would act to regulate where necessary. does the fact that fda has moved and banned these types of flavors suggest that there is some error on the fda's part under gotlieb for not having acted sooner >> reporter: yes, gotlieb would take that error on himself they acted too slowly and didn't see tend coming. he was working from the numbers he had he's not saying they saw the numbers and just didn't act. they didn't know how quickly this was moving and wanted to leave e-cigarettes on the market in order for it to be a tool for adults to quick smoke but came at the expense of millions of kids using these products. >> still so much we don't know up next the wage war rages on. seattle passed its progressive $15 minimum wage five years ago. now the verdict is in. we'll take you behind one business that saw some serious unintended effects >> is january the new april?

competition for housing is so high the spring market is starting right now implications hide. coming up on "fast money". savita subramanian will weigh in on what's ahead for the markets. peloton is truly a category of one and we're just getting started. now, let's do this. together, we are going further than we ever thought possible.

seattle as been to be

forefront of progressive wage hikes. now we're seeing how that change has impacted the city's businesses kate rogers has that for us. >> reporter: we found that the move had some unintended consequences for business owners in seattle take a look. at dick's drive-in the average employee is in their 20s and turnover is low. thanks to investments the company makes in workers like offering paid time off and 401(k)s as well as 100% employer paid health insurance. the benefits are available to workers regardless of the number of hours they work >> we invest a lot in our employees. we expect a lot from them but we invest a lot in them >> reporter: the company already pays above minimum wage starting at $17 and $18 as wages increased at restaurants across the city labor rise cost. the company had to raise its

prices for the first time in its history based on labor costs alone. in the past food cost-been the driving factor for price hikes as workers took home more in their paychecks the president said an interesting trend emerged. >> our employees are voluntarily choosing fewer hours at the higher wage rate which means i have more employees working part time hours than i used to. it's harder to get people to pick up hours when people are sick or need to change their schedule for school or family reasons. >> reporter: seattle's economy has been growing for years since 2015 the number of restaurants is up 5% with annual sales increasing 20% over the same period. in that time seattle's job growth has out paced the state of washington as a while growth in weekly hours was slightly lower than the state's average. the city's population has increased by 13% but so too has homelessness by 11%. for some the economy has taken

off in a way that feels unsustainable. matthew dillon, own of a restaurant closed his doors. he pays above the minimum wage so too did his rent which is nearly $16 now per month including taxes and fees and his ability to pass on costs to customers. when his lease came up he decided it was time to move on >> wages are growing up. price of food is going up. my property taxes that i have to pay for the land lower are going up my rent is going up. my staff or staff that was here that feels like well i can't be in the city any more so i need to move on so you have to fine someone to replace me. so that's hard the cost of that, just working through that as a business owner is going up. >> reporter: beyond seattle the federal minimum wage still

stands at 7.25 an hour where it's been since 2009 that's despite efforts from congressional democrats to hike pay too $15 an hour nationally the nonpartisan congressional budget office estimates such a move could boost pay for as many as 27 million low wage workers but cause 1.3 million people to lose their jobs. >> this is fascinating to me because these are some unintended queens. you wouldn't think when you raise the wage you would see these negative ripple effects. it makes sense to me you see a work they want to make more money they just don't want to work more. to the woman's point she's having a hard time as far as getting more hours they still want to look at those part time hours. there has to be some positive impacts. if you have more money in your pocket, are workers able to spend more >> reporter: we did talk to one worker who had his life change because of these wage hikes. he works three minimum wage joobs. he was camping now he can afford to rent a

monthly room one interesting trend we heard from this worker and business owners it's too expensive for their low wage workers to live in seattle so even though the local economy is doing really well people are taking home more money in their paychecks the city itself can be too expensive for those workers to live there which is really interesting. >> thanks so much. kate rogers there. for more on her story do check out cnbc.com all of the data and write up that you need up next is buying stocks on the cheap actually a good strategy and gearing up for auto sales. those numbers hitting the tape tomorrow what every investor needs to be watching when "closing bell" watching when "closing bell" comes back after this break.

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there's the dow closing in record territory earlier today right at the session highs as well up 330 points. you can see on the chart the surge into the close strong session and particularly strong final 15 minutes of 1.2%. industrials, tech companies led the charge today nasdaq also up over 1% while the s&p was up 0.8%. let's get over to mike for the final installment of today's dashboard. >> investors had no cash for clunkers lately. the beat up dented stocks that

look very cheap on paper have gone begging take a look at this chart. relative performance of the cheapest looking lowest pe stocks in the market compared to the highest pe stocks in the market this made the rounds in the "wall street journal" detail joy shot email "the wall street journal"'s email. negative 2%, massive underperformance by achieve stocks versus expensive ones the only other time it was like that in recent history was around the peak, 1999, 2000. it's got people talking about this infatuation with higher value growth stocks. whether this is going to be some kind of a turning point as well. now, it's hard to make that conclusion based on one observation in the past. and we also have seen in the last month or so some of those cheaper stocks have done better. what's fascinating is when value really does well is, guess what, mostly in or right after bear markets. you're kind of calling for the change in the overall market trend if you actually think very

cheap looking stocks today are going to start to be leaders >> that's not what we sold today. >> not at all. and of course what do you buy, when you buy low pe stocks today, you know, you're buying kind of secularly disadvantaged retailers and energy stocks and maybe some stray financials and little insurance companies in there. >> okay, mike, thanks very much. coming up next, it may be january but the housing market is heating up. experts are seeing a major shift in the busiest buying season we'll dig into that and what repercussion than could have for the real estate market plus the key things every investor needs to watch as we head into a new trading day when we come back legendary terrain in telluride,

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>> announcer: new year, new highs. as the rally rolls on, more room to run strategies before the opening bell "squawk on the street," 9:00 a.m. eastern, tomorrow here is a look at how we finished the day on wall street on this first full trading day of 2020. dow, s&p and nasdaq all finished hoyer. dow finished at session highs at 330 points russell was the underperformer industrials led the way when it comes to those sector groups it may be winter but the

housing market is already heath up competition for homes is so high, it looks like the spring market is starting already diana olick is here with more. hi, diana. >> reporter: january is the new april. buyers are starting their search early, knowing if they wait until spring, prices could be even higher. the proof is in the numbers. 2015 through 2018, peak month was april. january lagged april by 16%. but last year, january was the busiest month on the site in 20 of the largest 100 markets cities like new york, chicago, denver, and dallas, just to name a few. it's because there's so little to buy inventory in november was down 9.5% newannuanewlannual general annually got to get out there quick >> diana, i know it's anecdotal,

when we started our home search, we started in january and signed the contract in april, that lines up exactly with what you're talking about here. >> reporter: we're actually seeing sales happen in december and january. this is rare for this time of year, to see a house go under contract it's not just that people are waiting four months. they're buying now anyone who is an aggressive seller should get out there now. buyers are afraid that by april there won't be enough out there and it will be too expensive >> do we see a significant price increase from january to april because of this? >> reporter: at the beginning of last year we actually saw price gains shrinking a bit, which was easing up the market but then over the summer mortgage rates dropped way back down, buyers got out there, and we did not see nearly enough supply to meet demand. prices in the last two months, those gains have started to grow yet again. you can expect them to grow even

more in the next couple of months >> very interesting, diana, thank you for those trends phil lebeau is here, hi, phil >> courtney, it's not as exciting as buying a new house but for a lot of people buying a car at the end of the year is a big deal when we get december numbers tomorrow you can expect a big year-end push by all the automakers strong consumer confidence means numbers should be good tomorrow afternoon or saturday morning we'll get the final total for 2019 sales it's expected to top $17 million, the fifth straight year with auto sales that high. we're also waiting to see when we hear about deliveries for the fourth quarter for tesla the expectation is that the company delivered between 360 and $400,000 i've talked to a few analysts who said they may fall short,

they may come in at 355. don't expect that to move the stock a whole lot. this stock is trading on the expectation of china production and the model y in 2020. >> i don't want to jump ahead, phil, of the numbers for 2019, but could we have another year above $17 million? what's the forecast for the year ahead? >> the expectation is for $16.5 million. having said that, wolf, the expectation for 2019 was $16.7 million and it has exceeded that some of that is because there's more fleet sales, whether to rental car companies, government agencies, a lot of businesses, especially like with commercial advance, those sales have ramped up this year you never know for sure but the expectation is next year it will come in at 16.5 million. >> phil, if you're looking at general motors, not a tesla but one of these more traditional car companies, what will be the hottest cars this year >> it's still the trucks and suvs crossover utility vehicles remain hot

we're a country that wants size and space. as long as gas prices remain where they are, and you get better fuel economy with these vehicles, you just don't see many people buying sedans anymore. it's down to 30% of the market, probably will drop a little lower in 2020. >> i have to say, being at home last week, these cars are so small. to be fair, my mum does have an mini >> that is a small car >> anyway, phil, thanks so much. >> you bet >> my final thoughts great, strong ramp-up into the close today. >> the market is not really giving you any indication to say, oh, the story has changed, we're doing something different now, we have to cash in. we have the isn manufacturing report tomorrow morning. that will be the beginning of maybe looking for some evidence that this upturn or more stablization in the manufacturing area and general economic growth has improved we'll see if that is a mover or not. >> why do we have this investor sentiment that's sort of neutral?

>> people feel like they might have missed the move to some degree traders playing this rally, i think it got a bit overheated. there's bifurcated sentiment long term money, unsure whether they can extrapolate this move the real professionals who are in every day, they're well in and i think you saw them get to extremes last week >> we're out of time, that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site, a clean and spiffed-up times square, "fast money. savrita subramanian from bank of america skushecurities is with s apple is soaring, now a $300 stock. if only by a whisker is there any juice left in apple's record