to kind of wade back in. although the jobs number on friday is also going to be somewhat significant, because we do want to see the u.s. economic performance start to firm up in a very tangible way since the market is essentially priced something in like that >> s&p closed down two tenth of one percent for the week >> "fast money" begins now >> oh, yes, it does. thanks live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's sometim times square this is "fast money. your traders are steve basso, carter worth, and christina hooper, and tonight on fast, we follow the latest developments out of the middle east president trump saying he is not looking for a regime change in iran but he is nonetheless deploying thousands more troops to the region after a u.s. airstrike took out the country's most fearsome military leader iran, meantime, threatening

swift revenge. rattling markets and bringing the record rally to a halt a pause, maybe the s&p, dow, and nasdaq all finishing the day in the red meantime, oil prices spiking to their highest level since april in fears of major disruptions to the global energy spry and president trump took the stage at a rally in miami. if he makes comments on iran or others that seem jermaiger manel breng them to you. last week's market slide bringing jitters is it time to rethink your strategy guy, i think - >> yes, tyler. >> like you, i was surprised the market didn't react more negatively than it did >> should we rethink our tie combo first? >> the adami collection. >> it's great to have christina here we're all been fans of her work. i wanted to match. >> blue to blue. >> the blues

>> me being different. >> i think it works. the yellow and blue is a strong thing, tyler >> i didn't get the memo >> what was the question >> i thought that for a while, and correctly. if you told me last night at the end of the show what was going to take place, you said where is the market going to be tomorrow, based on the fact the dow is up 300 points, i said well, we easily have to be down 2%, if not more the vix should be north of 17. the nasdaq should be down 120 or so tlt should have rallied and it did. gold should be higher. the fact the market is down not even a percent today is remarkable given the backdrop of what happened. forget about just what happened in terms of iran that ism number is a disaster, the worst number inten years global economies, in my opinion, are slowing. you have this now geopolitical risk market at all-time highs and the fact we can't even budge effectively is remarkable to me. >> steve, we're going to talk more about oil in just a minute, but i look at some of the oil stocks, and i was surprised that some of them were actually down today. some of the big ones

>> oversupplied. we outproduce, the u.s. outproduces russia and saudi arabia and when you look at all those economic data points, those are allbackward looking. they would have been impacted by trade. you would expect them to be impacted by trade. going forward, let's see what monday looks like. you'll have every talk show talking about it this weekend. >> yeah. >> so everyone is going to put their spin on it are investors going to feel weaker or stronger about it come monday morning, and a lot of people are still out on vacation this week. >> the key is that the refiners were hit so hard, which you would expect with a bump, but the refiners have been struggling for a while, as crude, and this spike is quite different than the sort of drone attack spike, which was a flare-up and a giveback. this has been more enduring. i think it implies energy at least for now will be an outperformer relative to the overall market >> the simple question for me is how much riskier did the market get today than it was 24 hours ago? how much more volatility should

we be prepared for in 2020 than we had in 2019 >> well, i think we should have gone into 2020 regardless of this, expecting more volatility. geopolitical risks have increased around the world and this is just one of those incidents. i don't think we're going to see any kind of immediate backlash but it will hang over markets as do other geopolitical risks. >> i guess it depends on what the retaliation is, right? >> tyler, hasn't the world been pretty risky, when you said how much more risky, hasn't it been one-sided, a bunch of rhetoric, hasn't it been iran kind of flaring and thumbing their nose at the u.s. for quite some time now? this, to me, says to them put up or shut up is it going to escalate quickly? i don't think so the million dollar question is where do china and russia line up on this and do they force the u.s. to the table? >> also, at what point does it move higher and crude start to impact the consumer. we're not at that point yet, but

there are a lot of studies that suggest you get a year over increase of 50%, 70%, it starts to become a problem. we're not there yet, but the further you go, it's going to start. >> steve, last night, i sat around this table, and i sat around the table on "power lunch" earlier on the day and listened to a lot of what was going on, and didn't hear the word iran come up once not one of the risk elements that was out there and now it is. in a big way >> but we can't ignore some of the other risks. we have north korea. we're still waiting for them to test some kind of big missile. right? that's one of the risks. we also have the risk that once the u.s. signs a deal with china, if it does sign that phase-one deal on january 15th, then we could potentially have the u.s. turn its sights on europe and begin a trade war with the european union. there are lot of risks >> guy, let's talk about some of the groups today and how they performed. airlines down, as you might expect, as oil prices go up, but not down all that much defense stocks, by and large, higher >> makes sense

to me, the airlines, it's not necessarily just on the back of oil, it's on the fact that maybe people are now potentially not willing to travel as much as they had been over the last couple months. i think there's an aspect of that defense stocks we have been talking about forever. this is just one more sort of tailwind for that group. quickly to answer your question about volatility in a different way, does it surprise me 100%, but it makes sense if you think about it the advent of passive investing over the past couple years absolutely has dampened volatility, whether intentional or not, and i think the federal reserve and other central banks globally have taken volatility out of the equation. the market incorrectly in my opinion has -- there's a bull market, a bubble in complacency, and when passive stops becoming passive, and i don't know when that happens, it's not going to be -- i'll tell you, it won't be active on the upside the advent of passive investing coupled with central banks is why volatility has a 15 handle instead of in this environment a

22 handle. >> we began by asking, is this a moment where you rethink your strategy heading into 2020 yes or no? >> it's impossible to rethink it based on today >> on one day's events >> because we're so close to all-time highs the odds are we go higher. still the day of reckoning is where earnings come out, q-1, where estimates are, and does the market, the corporation step over those estimates or do they hit a wall that's going to be the true reckoning, and that's going to be a longer term event versus a one off iranian event. >> final question before we move on here. guy said there is a bubble in complacen complacency. has the market failed to discount not just the geopolitical risks that manifest itself last night, but all of the other risks you referred to? is there a bubble in complacency. >> i think the answer is actually the market has priced in central bank support. and so even if you do have those geopolitical risks, which are somewhat priced in, you also

know that there are central banks like the fed standing ready to support markets that has changed the equation. >> not just by cutting interest rates but by the operations on the balance sheet side as well >> absolutely. bl we're going to leave it there, but we'll keep talking about this all half hour i'm sure but we're going to dive deeper into the energy market right now on a day that saw oil prices jump more than 3% after last night's air strike crude trading at its highest level since april. joining us is huh lima croft and a cnbc contributor what are your thoughts today as you watched the markets unfold after last night's events? >> i think it's hard to overstate how momentous the killing of soleimani was he was the most powerful operative in the middle east, you could argue the most powerful figure in iran. what we're looking at is the prospect of significant iranian retaliation. some people have said, they have

to put up or shut up, but frankly, since may, we have seen almost unprecedented attacks on energy infrastructure in the middle east. tankers being struck off uae's territorial waters in may. tankers seized over the summer, and on september 14th, iranians were basically sent cruise missiles and drones and took out half of saudi's oil production temporarily. so i don't think we should be complacent about iran's ability to respond and be chaotic in the region i think what the market is doing now is waiting to see, you know, what they bring forward in terms of additional attacks, and whether we can sort of weather a disruption storm >> but the u.s. administration has moved as well from -- i'm -- complacency is not the right word for it, but the u.s. was pretty patient in the face of all of those provocations. >> absolutely. >> and now, maybe there is a new phase and a seismic shift where the president and the administration is saying enough already. we're not going to take this

anymore. and so if iran comes back with some further provocation, we may punch back twice as hard >> and i think that is the issue about a retaliatory spiral president trump has drawn a red line he's drawn this red line over the summer he's not going to use u.s. military assets to protect persian gulf energy infrastructure he says that is crude going to asia we have supply in the u.s. but his red line is, no americans can be killed by iran or iranian backed groups he enforced that red line. you had a u.s. civilian contractor killed on a base in iraq on friday and he has responded with force to that. so if the iranians retaliate in a way that targets more americans, you can expect the u.s. military to respond potentially on targets inside iran so again, i don't think we are done with this i don't think this is a blip or a momentary issue. i think we're looking at the

prospect of further back and forth between the u.s. and iran over coming months >> who's got a question for helima >> when you talk about how momentous of a killing this was for the united states or what a loss it was for iran, does it make them change their strategy? is it that type of a tipping point? or is it more or less it just ratchets up all the leverage that they have on us or we have on them? >> i mean, i don't believe a supreme leader of iran is going to back down in the face of this he's vowing revenge. and i do think that, you know, again, it may not be tomorrow. it may not be the next day, but over the coming weeks, we will see some type of significant iranian response and so the question is, does this lead us back to the bargaining table i don't think we're anywhere near getting back to the bargaining table someone on the panel talked about north korea, and an issue

no one is really talking about is what does iran do with the nuclear program? they have been restarted enrichment of uranium in facilities that are heavily fortified over the summer. the question is do they potentially withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty and make a quick dash to having nuclear weapons capability do they go the north korea route? i think that the risk is really high that we're going to see further escalation in this standoff between the u.s. and iran i do not think the iranians are going to back down after what happened yesterday >> kristina or guy >> bottom line, where do oil prices go? >> well, again, i think what has been interesting is, again, we have had unprecedented attacks on middle east energy infrastructure but because of concerns about the trade war, because of concerns about global demand that did not really move the needle in terms of the market. now, with trade war fears receding, i do think geopolitics can exert much more of an impact on the market. yes, there is a u.s. supply

story. so perhaps $80 is a new $100, but that does not mean that we cannot go higher on the back of what i think is going to be further escalation in the coming weeks and months >> all right, thanks very much for your insights. we appreciate your time. >> thank you let's trade what helima just said and our thoughts about oil. carter, is there a trade here for you? >> sure, there key is what oil did in relation to what it did after the missile strike on that day, it was monday, september 16th, it spiked as high as $63.38 and then it went almost back to $50. gave the whole thing back. now we have been deliberately and very measuredly moving higher, and today, we spiked to that high of september 16th, and actually made a slight new high at $64 and change. this in principle is a move to a prior high >> what do you think >> for me, there was a couple of names, a few names i had mentioned. xec is one of the names, wpx energy, and rig. these are all names that have been up recently pretty big, and

it could be m&a, it could be energy just laggard trying to become a leader, but i think that's the beta in the name. in the names in energy space if this progresses any further. >> we talked about schlumberger for a while, since october when it made a bottom around $30. the stock is up about 33% in the last four months i think higher from here a lot of analysts will start playing catchup. i think this is a stock you can continue to own into earnings. look for the april high, which i think was around $47 i think that's where it's headed >> who was it last night we did that contrarian segment last night you weren't here, but you were, who said the idea that energy going from laggard to leader was -- >> i said short term, you can have a trade, but it's not going to last. i think the most important thing for me is going to see, we already heard from china today that they're looking at what's going on with the real specific eye on it regarding trade.

i want to hear from russia because we've seen in the last couple weeks, we have seen those joint military operations between china, iran, and russia. i think they're having another one tonight or tomorrow night. so that's going to be really interesting to me to see how much bigger this is allowed to get. >> we're going to take a quick break. coming up, we found some green arrows in today's red sea, so to speak. we'll tell you what sent tesla shares into overdrive, and we'll reveal today's mystery chart this retail showing surprising strength in today's down market. a'll tell you which company it isnd why much more "fast" right after this ense. but now quickbooks helps me get paid, manage cash flow, and run payroll. and now i'm back on top... with koala kai. (vo) save over 40 hours a month with intuit quickbooks.

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familiar with this song? >> cars. >> by -- >> one gary newman only a half hour show. come on, tyler pick it up, man. >> all right welcome back to "fast money. it would not be a day, would it, without a discussion about tesla. we talked about it last night. we're going to talk about it again. shares of the company topping the tape in today's session. it passed a major milestone after it delivered more than 100,000 cars in a quarter for the first time ever.

and tesla says it delivered 112,000 in the fourth quarter. far above wall street's estimates. the stock touching new all-time highs on the news. will tesla's record rally hold strong what do you think? >> so, you never know what to look at this as. is it a battery company, is it a car company? was it a going out of business company? is it the sec company? that's what we're worried about slaps on it. and all that stuff seems to be sort of analogous to the overall market it shook off a lot of different headwinds, and right now, technically, the stock is just helium and i see overshoot levels of around 500 to 520. every day we come in with another tailwind, makes me more confident we'll get there. and when you look at the relative strength index, the way when it's overbought, it works it off, really, really quickly and just ratchets right back higher again >> i mean, listen, i have said it countless times i thought this would stall in

the $320s or so, and here we are pushing to the levels steve just talked about on seemingly nothing except a lot of hope now. i think the headlines from china, a lot of the china headlines regarding tesla, i think that's a lot of this people are getting jazzed up maybe rightly so, i don't know i heard maybe incorrectly that gene munster made some positive comments, maybe changed his price target to the upside all the news has been wind at their sails, one tweet, one bad delivery, one whatever away. again, i thought this would stop $150 or so dollars ago >> how much is priced in it's always that at what point are you paying the right price or too much or not enough for what's coming in the next six to 12 months? >> my hunch is it's, as you referred to, overbought, obviously. the question is how much time is there to work it off i would sell my tesla longs here >> move on, for more on tesla's record quarter, you can head to

our website. here's what else is coming up on "fast. >> shares of l brands bucking the market sell-off. what has one analyst so positive on the stock and later on options action, apple getting another vote of confidence from not one but two brokerage houses today but how should you play the stock as it soars from one record after another we have all that and more after thbrk.e ea terrain in telluride, the unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, you've faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. with ship skis, you're just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. with unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. ship ahead and go catch those first tracks on fresh snow. ship skis. your skis. delivered.

doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. i am totally blind. and non-24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. talk to your doctor, and call 844-214-2424. welcome back to "fast money. l brands getting a nice pop following an upgrade it is our call of the day. bank of america upgrading that stock to buy raising it price target to $25 a share. analysts say the stock is cheap and the company's bath and body

works brand is, quote, one of the best stories in retail l-brands gaining nearly 8% on this otherwise down day. is it a diamond in the retail the you like the stores, you were just saying >> steve and i were talking about. >> potpourri, the candles, the whole thing. facial scrub, which i'm a fuge fan of >> do they sell ties >> pardon me >> what? >> i knew where you were going we talked about this again, you have a huge double bott bottom the stock has a 9.5%, 10% short interest valuation is compelling and it can shoot to the upside. deutsche bank had a $22 price target i don't knowif it gets to $25, but i have a feeling it gets to $20.50, $21. >> how healthy is the consumer >> i am concerned about the consumer it looks very healthy right now, but there's a vulnerability built in there because we know

such a large cohort of consumers doesn't have much in the way of savings. >> paycheck to paycheck. >> exactly, so if anything were to change about the employment situation, which is admittedly excellent right now, but if something were to change, that could introduce a significant amount of pressure on the consumer and i think we have been riding the consumer for so many years, though, years now, we have come to accept that the consumer will always be there and will always be strong. there could be a day of reckoning. >> what about the record low levels of unemployment this is something where i get what you're saying, but i think we have a huge amount of slack >> but it's not working in consumer brand names if you look at the equal weight of sector, it's making seven-year lows. if you get rid of the big flyers, the seconde esectors, te stocks are terrible. >> i don't know if that's a reason or justwhere money is flowing to certain names >> one is still trying to invest

against a benchmark, this is not an area that's working >> i think so many companies are still trying to figure out exactly which channels to exploit, how to emphasize online versus in-store sales. but for me, i just think of statistics like 28% of americans have no emergency savings. there is only a small portion of americans, less than 25%, that have more than six months in savings. so there's a built-in vulnerability if something were to go south in the employment situation. >> if oil prices go up and keep going out, that's going to take more money out of consumers' pockets. we are to go around the horn >> it was a red day today, but what was green most of the day, snap my favorite stock lately snap, stay long. >> carter? >> energy. xle for equities or uso for crude. >> kristina, do you have a sector or a pick >> i'm very excited about china, in particular, chinese technology companies cqqq is the ticker

>> huge coming up, tony, i love him. young talent coming on to the desk it's outstanding i might just hang out and watch the whole show with that said - >> your final trade? he's your final traych?slumberg. >> options action is up next s in the world, and tie it all together with a world-class software experience. >> no schlumberger >> options action is up next e? >> no schlumberger >> options action is up next h m. peloton is truly a category of one and we're just getting started. now, let's do this. together, we are going further than we ever thought possible.

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it is friday, 5:30 at nasdaq that can only mean one thing that is that walgreens is open behind nee, no, time for options action here's what's coming up on the big show >> power is everything >> yes, carter worth continues his preholiday listen on how to accelerate through the energy sector then - >> soften hands while you do the dishes >> it could also soften any portfolio that's soaking in palmolive stock. finally -- >> cover me. >> you're covered. >> and